Racing Post Football Tips: football prediction source record — archive reconstruction

About this publishing channel

Racing Post Football Tips is a publishing channel. Its predictions are tracked as a source record.

Record card

To link to this record from your site or bio, copy the line below. It states only the facts of this record.

<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/sources/racing-post/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 27 predictions · last change 2 October 2026</a>

Archived before kick-off · 5 settled archived picks · won 2 of 5

Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.

13 predictions; 5 checked against the final score.

5 settled selections across 5 matches, 14 September 2024 – 10 May 2025.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −30 points.

Eligible prices were available for 5 of the 5 selections checked against the result.

Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 2 of 5 decided picks; the prices of the same picks implied 45.8%.

By market: Both teams to score 1 of 1 (prices implied 55.6%); Double chance 1 of 1 (prices implied 34.5%); Result and both teams to score 0 of 1 (prices implied 39.3%); Result and total goals 0 of 1 (prices implied 50.8%); Win to nil 0 of 1 (prices implied 49.0%).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Found after kick-off · 3 settled after-match picks · won 2 of 3

First Found after kick-off; the date is the one the source states.

14 predictions; 6 checked against the final score.

3 settled selections across 3 matches, 14 September 2024 – 11 May 2025.

Reconstructed at archived prices: +147.50 points.

Eligible prices were available for 3 of the 6 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 2 of 3 decided picks; the prices of the same picks implied 47.4%.

By market: Both teams to score 0 of 1 (prices implied 52.9%); Over/under goals 1 of 1 (prices implied 44.9%); Result and total goals 1 of 1 (prices implied 44.4%).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.

What kind of number is this?

Measured

Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; the time of each pre-match web-archive copy.

Stated

The source’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.

Calculated

Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.

Unknown

Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published.

The four data statuses

What this record covers

We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything Racing Post Football Tips has published.

Source we monitor

racingpost.com

Channels

website

Watched by us

28 September – 2 October 2026

Earlier entries

restored from archives, back to 14 September 2024

Stated price vs market

How the prices this source stated compare with an independent market price of the same selection. Calculated from the picks where both prices are known; a gap can come from market movement or from one bookmaker offering more than the market, so it describes the stated prices, not the reason for them.

Closing market price (restored) — the closing market price of the same selection (restored history). Difference = the source's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5.0% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the source’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way. The closing price is the final price before kick-off. The price when the pick was published is unknown for restored history, so this row shows the distance to where the market closed.

Pre-match close: the last market price for the same selection before kick-off. Definition.

Largest gaps: 2.38 against 3.40 (−30.1%) · 2.50 against 2.20 (+13.6%)

Source's response

No source's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.

Respond or request a correction

Coverage and exclusions

One set of records: the source’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.

Statements

216

Predictions

27

Qualifying picks

13

Settled picks

11

Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.

Statements that are not predictions: 7 opinions and 182 not about a match.

How this return was calculated

Every settled pick in “Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)” is a stake of 100 points at the last pre-match archive price, a reconstruction at archived prices on picks archived before kick-off only. The net result (−30 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 5 settled archived picks; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (500 points), void picks excluded. Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.

Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.

Separate comparison window — last 90 days: the return appears from the first settled pick in this window (method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted

Changes to this record

The headline number above is (reconstruction method 1.1, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only). When it changes, the earlier figure stays here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.

Data corrected · 16 October 2026

Before

+2.7% on 32 settled picks across 32 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−30.00 points on 5 settled picks across 5 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 27 picks left the headline sample.

Data corrected · 16 October 2026

Before

+11.4% on 34 settled picks across 34 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

+2.7% on 32 settled picks across 32 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 2 picks left the headline sample.

Coverage extended · 15 October 2026

Before

+29.9% on 11 settled picks across 11 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (11)

After

+11.4% on 34 settled picks across 34 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 23 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Data corrected · 15 October 2026

Before

+11.4% on 34 settled picks across 34 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

+29.9% on 11 settled picks across 11 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (11)

Data corrected: 23 picks left the headline sample.

Method changed · 9 October 2026

Before

+3.7% on 60 settled picks across 60 matches · author's stated odds, restored · Reconstruction method 1.0

After

+11.4% on 34 settled picks across 34 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first Found after kick-off no longer enter the headline number. Was: author's stated odds, restored (60 settled picks). Now: reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (34 settled picks).

Coverage extended · 9 October 2026

Before

+4.9% on 27 settled picks across 27 matches · author's stated odds, restored · Reconstruction method 1.0 Small sample (27)

After

+3.7% on 60 settled picks across 60 matches · author's stated odds, restored · Reconstruction method 1.0

Added 33 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Who this is

Last recorded by us

2 October 2026, 36 days before this page's data date

Observed

28 September 2026 — 2 October 2026

Channels

website

The same data, machine-readable

• Page data (JSON)
• Recorded picks (CSV)

From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.

Share cards of this record (2)

• Bankroll card — Racing Post Football Tips
• Said → happened — Racing Post Football Tips

Check us

• How we count
• Right of reply and complaints
• What we collect
• Corrections log
• Data and API

Calculations for the displayed picks

Record definitions and related evidence

• Recorded picks and results
• Matches
• How this return was calculated
• Archived before kick-off — definition
• Corrected on 29 September 2026 : The source’s fractional price 23-20 was read as 12.15; as a decimal price it is 2.15.