Aaron Ashley: football tipster record

Record overview

• 22 recorded before kick-off · since 3 Oct 2026
• 135 from the pre-match archive · 2024–2026
• 86 Found after kick-off

Record details and history below

Where Aaron Ashley publishes

Identity checked on 11 October 2026 against public sources: racingpost.com, livescore.com.

Totals are kept per platform. Predictions from every platform are listed below, each marked with its platform.

Record card

To link to this record from your site or bio, copy the line below. It states only the facts of this record.

<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/authors/aaron-ashley/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 608 predictions · last change 7 November 2026</a>

Recorded before kick-off: supporting evidence

Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.

How the market price is set

Recorded before kick-off, graded after the match

9 predictions recorded before kick-off. Right in 6 of 9.

Prices implied by market

By market: Match result 1 of 7 (1 W / 6 L) Small sample (7); Both teams to score 1 of 2 (1 W / 1 L) Small sample (2); Double chance 0 of 2 (0 W / 2 L) Small sample (2); Result and both teams to score 2 of 2 (2 W / 0 L) Small sample (2); Over/under goals 1 of 1 (1 W / 0 L) Small sample (1); Result and total goals 1 of 1 (1 W / 0 L) Small sample (1).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Archived before kick-off · 105 settled archived picks · −19.6%

Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.

277 predictions; 138 checked against the final score.

105 settled selections across 77 matches, 16 August 2024 – 3 May 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −19.6% (95.0% interval −38.8% to +0.1%).

Eligible prices were available for 105 of the 138 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 44 of 104 decided picks (42.3%); the prices of the same picks implied 49.6%.

By market: Match result 1 of 7 (1 W / 6 L) Small sample (7); Both teams to score 1 of 2 (1 W / 1 L) Small sample (2); Double chance 0 of 2 (0 W / 2 L) Small sample (2); Result and both teams to score 2 of 2 (2 W / 0 L) Small sample (2); Over/under goals 1 of 1 (1 W / 0 L) Small sample (1); Result and total goals 1 of 1 (1 W / 0 L) Small sample (1).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own. 1 pick left out: void, or half won or half lost on a quarter-goal line.

Score forecasts without a betting market price

Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.

None of the 6 score forecasts named the exact score.

The result implied by the named score was right in 3 of 6 matches; the market favourite was right in 5 of the same 6 matches.

The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).

The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).

Found after kick-off · 66 settled after-match picks · −19.6%

First Found after kick-off; the date is the one the source states.

174 predictions; 88 checked against the final score.

66 settled selections across 49 matches, 8 August 2024 – 20 September 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −19.6% (95.0% interval −42.1% to +2.8%).

Eligible prices were available for 66 of the 88 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 30 of 66 decided picks (45.5%); the prices of the same picks implied 51.9%.

By market: Match result 1 of 7 (1 W / 6 L) Small sample (7); Both teams to score 1 of 2 (1 W / 1 L) Small sample (2); Double chance 0 of 2 (0 W / 2 L) Small sample (2); Result and both teams to score 2 of 2 (2 W / 0 L) Small sample (2); Over/under goals 1 of 1 (1 W / 0 L) Small sample (1); Result and total goals 1 of 1 (1 W / 0 L) Small sample (1).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.

Record details and history

Record details

• Most recorded: Match result (1X2) · 31 matches

  Match result (1X2) 11/31 (31 matches); Bet-builder combos 9/28 (28 matches); Goals over/under 11/19 (19 matches); Both teams to score 11/18 (18 matches); Goalscorer picks 1/13 (13 matches); Double chance and draw no bet 5/13 (12 matches); Player props 3/13 (12 matches); Correct score 0/8 (8 matches)

  Most recorded bet type: the rule

• Exact scores · 0/8

  Exact scores: the rule

• Minority calls · 1/1

  Result calls on matches with at least 8 other tipsters and sources, where at least 60.0% of them named another outcome.

  Minority calls: the rule

• Longest price: correct at 2.37 · 3 May 2026

  Manchester United v Liverpool · Home win at 2.37 (archive closing price)

  Pre-match close: the last market price for the same selection before kick-off. Definition.

  Correct at a long price: the rule

• Away calls · 5/16

  Away calls: the rule

Each title is a fact about past picks, by published rules. How titles work

What kind of number is this?

Measured

Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; our pre-match market snapshot of each settled pick; the time of each pre-match web-archive copy.

Stated

The author’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.

Calculated

Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.

Unknown

Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published; who made the predictions whose attribution is under review.

The four data statuses

What this record covers

We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything Aaron Ashley has published.

Source we monitor

racingpost.com

Channels

website

Watched by us

28 September – 7 November 2026

Earlier entries

restored from archives, back to 8 August 2024

Without a match page

107 predictions

Attribution under review

2 predictions, kept out of this record’s totals

Stated price vs market

How the prices this author stated compare with an independent market price of the same selection. Calculated from the picks where both prices are known; a gap can come from market movement or from one bookmaker offering more than the market, so it describes the stated prices, not the reason for them.

Closing market price (restored) — the closing market price of the same selection (restored history). Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5.0% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way. The closing price is the final price before kick-off. The price when the pick was published is unknown for restored history, so this row shows the distance to where the market closed.

Largest gaps: 2.62 against 2.05 (+28.0%) · 2.45 against 2.18 (+12.4%)

Author's response

No author's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.

Respond or request a correction

Coverage and exclusions

One set of records: the author’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.

Statements

1,721

Predictions

608

Qualifying picks

284

Settled picks

236

Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.

Statements that are not predictions: 204 opinions and 903 not about a match.

How this return was calculated

Every settled pick in “Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price” is a stake of 100 points at our recorded market price, a pre-match snapshot of the same selection. The net result (−138.04 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 15 settled live picks; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (1,500 points), void picks excluded. Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.

Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.

Separate comparison window — last 90 days: −9.2% on 15 live picks settled in this window · 14 matches · 20 October – 7 November 2026 (calculated, method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted

Changes to this record

Earlier figures stay here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.

Coverage extended · 7 November 2026

Before

−19.3% on 12 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (12)

After

−9.2% on 15 settled picks across 14 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (15)

Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture); also 2 new results.

New results · 5 November 2026

Before

−17.5% on 10 settled picks across 10 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (10)

After

−19.3% on 12 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (12)

2 new settled picks from matches played after the previous record update.

Method changed · 29 October 2026

Before

−19.7% on 105 settled picks across 77 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−17.5% on 10 settled picks across 10 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (10)

The headline rule changed on 14 October 2026: the live record at our recorded market price becomes the headline number from 10 settled picks; until then the headline is the record restored from pre-match archive copies, and the live record so far is shown beside it. Was: reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (105 settled picks). Now: independent odds snapshot (10 settled picks).

Data corrected · 22 October 2026

Before

−19.3% on 115 settled picks across 82 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−19.7% on 105 settled picks across 77 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 8 picks left the headline sample.

Coverage extended · 22 October 2026

Before

−19.7% on 105 settled picks across 77 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−19.3% on 115 settled picks across 82 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 8 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Data corrected · 19 October 2026

Before

−19.6% on 107 settled picks across 78 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−19.7% on 105 settled picks across 77 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 2 picks left the headline sample.

Data corrected · 19 October 2026

Before

−18.3% on 115 settled picks across 80 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−19.6% on 107 settled picks across 78 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 8 picks left the headline sample.

Data corrected · 18 October 2026

Before

−19.7% on 119 settled picks across 83 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−18.3% on 115 settled picks across 80 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 3 picks left the headline sample.

Coverage extended · 18 October 2026

Before

−18.3% on 115 settled picks across 80 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−19.7% on 119 settled picks across 83 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 3 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Coverage extended · 16 October 2026

Before

−18.5% on 111 settled picks across 76 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−18.3% on 115 settled picks across 80 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 4 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Data corrected · 16 October 2026

Before

−19.9% on 115 settled picks across 79 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−18.5% on 111 settled picks across 76 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 4 picks left the headline sample.

Coverage extended · 13 October 2026

Before

−20.2% on 113 settled picks across 77 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−19.9% on 115 settled picks across 79 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Data corrected · 10 October 2026

Before

−21.0% on 114 settled picks across 78 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−20.2% on 113 settled picks across 77 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.

Method changed · 9 October 2026

Before

−27.7% on 135 settled picks across 99 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−21.0% on 114 settled picks across 78 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first Found after kick-off no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (135 settled picks). Now: reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (114 settled picks).

Coverage extended · 9 October 2026

Before

−35.5% on 54 settled picks across 40 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−27.7% on 135 settled picks across 99 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 81 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Who this is

Last recorded by us

7 November 2026, the date of this page's data

Observed

28 September 2026 — 7 November 2026

Channels

website

Statements other than predictions (59 shown)

• “Given the attacking talent on show and with both teams surely full of belief that they can spoil the party for some of the heavy hitters, this could be quite a treat.” — 2 October 2026, 01:54 BST · source
• “Japanese ace Reo Hatate has had 17 shots in five Premiership games for Celtic, scoring twice,” — 2 October 2026, 01:52 BST · source
• “Celtic have had at least five corners in each of their five Premiership games this season and” — 2 October 2026, 01:52 BST · source
• “The Bhoys have won all six of their matches this season and they should put home advantage to” — 2 October 2026, 01:52 BST · source
• “Celtic’s constant pressure can ensure that they also rack up plenty of corners.” — 2 October 2026, 01:52 BST · source
• “although it is unlikely to be a free-scoring classic.” — 2 October 2026, 01:52 BST · source
• “their best chance of claiming a positive result will be to keep things tight and compact.” — 2 October 2026, 01:52 BST · source
• “the positive vibes should continue in the Champions League with an opening victory over Slovan” — 2 October 2026, 01:52 BST · source
• “it should be a gilt-edged opportunity to get back on the winning trail as Newcastle arrive at the Emirates on a run of three straight defeats.” — 25 April 2026, 15:15 BST · source
• “the stakes could lead to a tentative affair.” — 10 May 2026, 14:00 BST · source
• “Stockport are worth opposing at odds-on at home to Reading” — 1 October 2026, 02:14 BST · source
• “they should have a significant class edge on Stoke” — 1 October 2026, 02:14 BST · source

• Aston Villa (4-2-3-1): Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Maatsen; Onana, Tielemans; Bailey, McGinn; Rogers; Watkins.

  · Source

• West Ham (4-2-3-1): Areola; Coufal, Mavropanos, Kilman, Emerson; Ward-Prowse, Soucek; Bowen, Paqueta, Kudus; Fullkrug

  · Source

• Boubacar Kamara and Tyrone Mings are still on the road to recovery while sub goalkeeper Robin Olsen is a doubt.

  · Source

• Edson Alvarez is the Hammers’ only confirmed absentee while Aaron Wan-Bissaka arrived on Tuesday and is unlikely to start ahead of Vladimir Coufal.

  · Source

• West Ham 29-20 Aston Villa 9-5 Draw 11-4

  · Source

• Both teams have scored in only one of Manchester United’s four matches this season.

  · Source

• Centre-back Donovan Pines suffered concussion at the weekend and misses out alongside midfielder Conor

  · Source

• Polish defender Maik Nawrocki remains sidelined through injury and is Celtic’s only reported

  · Source

• You can watch Celtic vs Slovan Bratislava in the Champions League at 8pm on Wednesday, September

  · Source

• Eberechi Eze to have a shot on target The Palace star has had 18 shots in four league appearances

  · Source

• Noussair Mazraoui to commit two or more fouls The Moroccan will be up against Eze, who drew

  · Source

• Over 2.5 goals Ten of Manchester United's last 12 away league matches have featured over 2.

  · Source

• Midfielder Marko Jankovic is Qarabag's only injury concern.

  · Source

• Defender Kevin Medina is suspended following his red card against Dinamo Zagreb

  · Source

• Cristian Romero is suspended due to being sent off in Spurs' last European fixture two seasons ago.

  · Source

• Richarlison and Wilson Odobert remain sidelined for Tottenham

  · Source

• Tottenham 1-6 Qarabag 14-1 Draw 8-1

  · Source

• Alisson has been declared fit to play

  · Source

• Defender Yerson Mosquera is expected to be out for the remainder of the season

  · Source

• Wolves 7-1 Liverpool 1-3 Draw 9-2

  · Source

• Swansea 13-10 Bristol City 19-10 Draw 27-10

  · Source

• Gavin Bazunu, Will Smallbone and Kamaldeen Sulemana are ruled out through injury

  · Source

• Southampton have won only two of their last 15 Premier League away matches.

  · Source

• Bournemouth have lost only four of their last 16 Premier League home games

  · Source

• Di'Shon Bernard returns from suspension.

  · Source

• he must do without the services of Nathaniel Chalobah and Ben Hamer.

  · Source

• Rob Dickie, Rob Atkinson, Ross McCrorie, Ayman Benarous and Sam Bell are all injured.

  · Source

• Scotland international Lewis Ferguson, Nicolo Cambiaghi and Oussama El Azzouzi are all missing through injury while Tommaso Pobega is a doubt. Both Santiago Castro and Remo Freuler must be assessed after picking up knocks in the weekend draw with Atalanta, but are expected to be available.

  · Source

• Darwin Nunez missed the Wolves game through illness but trained on Tuesday alongside Andy Robertson. Diogo Jota missed that session but should be fit to feature, although Federico Chiesa is almost certainly out. Harvey Elliot remains a long-term injury absentee.

  · Source

• Liverpool have won have 12 of their last 13 matches in the group stage/league phase of the Champions League.

  · Source

• There are concerns surrounding Diogo Jota and Federico Chiesa, who were absent from training on Tuesday, but in Mohamed Salah, Cody Gakpo, Luis Diaz and Darwin Nunez there is still a rich wealth of attacking options at Slot’s disposal.

  · Source

• Liverpool’s last five victories have all gone over 2.5 goals and this should be another high-octane affair given that both teams have scored in five of Bologna's six Serie A outings, including at home to last season’s Europa League winners Atalanta on Saturday.

  · Source

• The Reds have responded superbly to a surprise 1-0 loss at Nottingham Forest in the middle of September, posting four straight victories in all competitions and racking up 13 goals.

  · Source

• Italiano’s side have suffered only one loss in the league but that came in a 3-0 drubbing at Napoli and Liverpool’s flying forwards will be confident of getting among the goals.

  · Source

• Bologna sit 13th in the Italian top-flight standings after six matches,. Their only victory came in a 2-1 win at Monza, and they are yet to keep a league clean sheet.

  · Source

• But this is a very different test and they are still adjusting to life under Vincenzo Italiano, who was appointed as Thiago Motta’s replacement in the summer, something which has been evident in the early stages of the Serie A season.

  · Source

• The Italian visitors were held to a goalless draw in their Champions League curtain-raiser at home to Shakhtar Donetsk two weeks ago, although they were the better side on the whole and were made to pay for a flurry of missed chances.

  · Source

• Liverpool are also setting the early pace in the Premier League, having won five of their opening six games, and their confident start under Slot may spell trouble for visitors Bologna, who are having their debut season in the Champions League.

  · Source

• Slot’s side trailed 1-0 after three minutes but they never looked back once Ibrahima Konate levelled with a 23rd-minute header having 23 shots, 11 of which hit the target.

  · Source

• Liverpool have already come up against Serie A opposition in this competition and the Reds eased to a 3-1 success against Milan at San Siro, where there was a clear gulf between the European heavyweights.

  · Source

• This will be Arne Slot’s first taste of a European evening at Anfield and it should be a memorable experience for the Dutchman, who can watch his Liverpool side blast their way past Bologna.

  · Source

• You can watch Liverpool vs Bologna in the Champions League at 8pm on Wednesday, October 2, live on TNT Sports 2

  · Source

• Sign up with Paddy Power to get Arsenal at 50-1 to beat Newcastle in the Premier League on Saturday.

  25 Apr 2026, 15:15 BST · Source

• Predicted line-up (4-2-3-1): Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie; Rice, Zubimendi;

  10 May 2026, 14:00 BST · Source

• Predicted line-up (4-4-1-1): Hermansen; Walker-Peters, Mavropanos, Disasi, Diouf;

  10 May 2026, 14:00 BST · Source

• Ladbrokes are offering £25 in free bets when you bet £5 on Leicester vs Nottingham Forest.

  · Source

• Kyle Bartley remains sidelined while Paddy McNair was forced off early in last weekend’s draw with Cardiff, making him a doubt.

  · Source

The full list is in the JSON and CSV downloads of this page.

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• Page data (JSON)
• Recorded picks (CSV)

From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.

Share cards of this record (2)

• Bankroll card — Aaron Ashley
• Said → happened — Aaron Ashley

For the author of this record (1)

• Your record on Forecast Record: Aaron Ashley

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Record definitions and related evidence

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• Recorded before kick-off — definition
• 31