Jack Ogalbe: football tipster record — archive reconstruction

Record overview

• 4 recorded before kick-off · since 17 Oct 2026
• 53 from the pre-match archive · 2024–2026
• 27 Found after kick-off

Record details and history below

Where Jack Ogalbe publishes

Identity checked on 11 October 2026 against public sources: racingpost.com.

Totals are kept per platform. Predictions from every platform are listed below, each marked with its platform.

Record card

To link to this record from your site or bio, copy the line below. It states only the facts of this record.

<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/authors/jack-ogalbe/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 162 predictions · last change 17 October 2026</a>

Recorded before kick-off: supporting evidence

Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.

How the market price is set

Recorded before kick-off, graded after the match

1 prediction recorded before kick-off. It was not right.

Prices implied by market

By market: Match result 0 of 1 (0 W / 1 L) Small sample (1); Over/under goals 0 of 1 (0 W / 1 L) Small sample (1); Result and both teams to score 0 of 1 (0 W / 1 L) Small sample (1).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Archived before kick-off · 44 settled archived picks · +20.0%

Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.

105 predictions; 53 checked against the final score.

44 settled selections across 31 matches, 14 September 2024 – 20 September 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: +20.0% (95.0% interval −32.9% to +86.5%).

Eligible prices were available for 44 of the 53 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 19 of 44 decided picks (43.2%); the prices of the same picks implied 38.0%.

By market: Match result 0 of 1 (0 W / 1 L) Small sample (1); Over/under goals 0 of 1 (0 W / 1 L) Small sample (1); Result and both teams to score 0 of 1 (0 W / 1 L) Small sample (1).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Score forecasts without a betting market price

Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.

2 of 3 score forecasts named the exact score.

The result implied by the named score was right in 2 of 3 matches; the market favourite was right in 0 of the same 3 matches.

The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).

The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).

Found after kick-off · 21 settled after-match picks · −49.6%

First Found after kick-off; the date is the one the source states.

51 predictions; 29 checked against the final score.

21 settled selections across 14 matches, 3 October 2024 – 15 May 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −49.6% (95.0% interval −100.0% to −0.3%).

Eligible prices were available for 21 of the 29 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 4 of 21 decided picks (19.0%); the prices of the same picks implied 30.1%.

By market: Match result 0 of 1 (0 W / 1 L) Small sample (1); Over/under goals 0 of 1 (0 W / 1 L) Small sample (1); Result and both teams to score 0 of 1 (0 W / 1 L) Small sample (1).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.

Score forecasts without a betting market price

1 score forecast is waiting for a final score.

Record details and history

Record details

• Most recorded: Match result (1X2) · 18 matches

  Match result (1X2) 8/18 (18 matches); Correct score 3/11 (11 matches); Both teams to score 4/6 (6 matches); Goalscorer picks 0/6 (6 matches); Team goals and win to nil 2/5 (5 matches); Bet-builder combos 0/4 (4 matches); Goals over/under 1/4 (4 matches); Double chance and draw no bet 2/2 (2 matches)

  Most recorded bet type: the rule

• Exact scores · 3/11

  before kick-off 0/1 · archive 3/10

  Exact scores: the rule

• Longest price: correct at 3.70 · 17 Aug 2025

  Chelsea v Crystal Palace · Draw at 3.70 (archive closing price) · from the predicted score: Correct score: Chelsea 1-1 Crystal Palace at 9

  Pre-match close: the last market price for the same selection before kick-off. Definition.

  Correct at a long price: the rule

• Non-favourite calls · 5/12

  Non-favourite calls: the rule

Each title is a fact about past picks, by published rules. How titles work

What kind of number is this?

Measured

Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; our pre-match market snapshot of each settled pick; the time of each pre-match web-archive copy.

Stated

The author’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.

Calculated

Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.

Unknown

Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published.

The four data statuses

What this record covers

We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything Jack Ogalbe has published.

Source we monitor

racingpost.com

Channels

website

Watched by us

28 September – 17 October 2026

Earlier entries

restored from archives, back to 14 September 2024

Without a match page

2 predictions

Stated price vs market

How the prices this author stated compare with an independent market price of the same selection. Calculated from the picks where both prices are known; a gap can come from market movement or from one bookmaker offering more than the market, so it describes the stated prices, not the reason for them.

Closing market price (restored) — the closing market price of the same selection (restored history). Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5.0% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way. The closing price is the final price before kick-off. The price when the pick was published is unknown for restored history, so this row shows the distance to where the market closed.

Largest gaps: 2.45 against 3.41 (−28.2%) · 2.80 against 2.40 (+16.7%)

Author's response

No author's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.

Respond or request a correction

Coverage and exclusions

One set of records: the author’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.

Statements

461

Predictions

162

Qualifying picks

99

Settled picks

83

Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.

Statements that are not predictions: 56 opinions and 243 not about a match.

How this return was calculated

Every settled pick in “Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)” is a stake of 100 points at the last pre-match archive price, a reconstruction at archived prices on picks archived before kick-off only. The net result (+881 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 44 settled archived picks; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (4,400 points), void picks excluded. Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.

Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.

Separate comparison window — last 90 days: −300 points on 3 live picks settled in this window · 3 matches · 17–18 October 2026 (calculated, method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted

Changes to this record

The headline number above is (reconstruction method 1.1, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only). When it changes, the earlier figure stays here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.

Data corrected · 22 October 2026

Before

+12.1% on 50 settled picks across 35 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

+20.0% on 44 settled picks across 31 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 5 picks left the headline sample.

Coverage extended · 22 October 2026

Before

+20.0% on 44 settled picks across 31 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

+12.1% on 50 settled picks across 35 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 5 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Data corrected · 19 October 2026

Before

+11.3% on 49 settled picks across 35 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

+20.0% on 44 settled picks across 31 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 5 picks left the headline sample.

Data corrected · 18 October 2026

Before

+12.1% on 50 settled picks across 35 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

+11.3% on 49 settled picks across 35 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.

Coverage extended · 18 October 2026

Before

+11.3% on 49 settled picks across 35 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

+12.1% on 50 settled picks across 35 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Data corrected · 16 October 2026

Before

+16.8% on 48 settled picks across 33 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

+11.3% on 49 settled picks across 35 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample; 2 picks added.

Coverage extended · 13 October 2026

Before

+19.5% on 43 settled picks across 29 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

+16.8% on 48 settled picks across 33 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 5 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Method changed · 9 October 2026

Before

+3.9% on 55 settled picks across 37 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

+19.5% on 43 settled picks across 29 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first Found after kick-off no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (55 settled picks). Now: reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (43 settled picks).

Coverage extended · 9 October 2026

Before

−8.7% on 33 settled picks across 22 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

+3.9% on 55 settled picks across 37 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 22 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Who this is

Last recorded by us

17 October 2026, 21 days before this page's data date

Observed

28 September 2026 — 17 October 2026

Channels

website

Statements other than predictions (53 shown)

• “Jefte was dismissed after receiving two yellow cards against Dynamo Kyiv in Champions League qualifying and has been booked a further three times since.” — 2 October 2026, 01:48 BST · source
• “Skipper Lacazette is still to score for Lyon this season but has previously netted 22 times in the Europa League during his career and is expected to start at Ibrox” — 2 October 2026, 01:48 BST · source
• “BTTS has also landed in three of Lyon’s last four in Ligue 1” — 2 October 2026, 01:48 BST · source
• “Rangers have kept clean sheets in their last four games but are susceptible against better attacks.” — 2 October 2026, 01:48 BST · source
• “Despite being the visitors, they can feed off the home supporters' passion and grab a big win in Glasgow.” — 2 October 2026, 01:48 BST · source
• “Sage's side plays in front of a chaotic home crowd on at least a fortnightly basis.” — 2 October 2026, 01:48 BST · source
• “The Rangers fans will look to produce something similar, but Lyon will not be intimidated.” — 2 October 2026, 01:48 BST · source
• “Despite Parkhead's famous atmosphere, Celtic arguably suffered in the din of Dortmund.” — 2 October 2026, 01:48 BST · source
• “Les Gones went from relegation candidates to European qualification last season under Pierre Sage” — 2 October 2026, 01:48 BST · source
• “Three of Graz's last five game have ended 2-0 – they lost to Midtjylland by that scoreline last week but have beaten Rothis and Salzburg in the Austrian top flight – and they may succeed by a similar margin on Thursday.” — 1 October 2025, 15:29 BST · source
• “However, he has been booked in Graz's last two games and remains a rugged presence, suggesting another caution could be on the way.” — 1 October 2025, 15:29 BST · source
• “That would likely suit Graz, whose last five games have all featured no more than two goals including Sunday's 1-0 home victory over Hartberg.” — 1 October 2025, 15:29 BST · source
• “Getting away to Austria might help, and Sturm Graz's two defeats in four outings at the Liebenauer Stadium suggest that the Austrian champions can be caught out.” — 1 October 2025, 15:29 BST · source
• “Repeat of Porto scoreline a possibility” — 5 November 2025, 17:00 GMT · source
• “Expect another big performance from Gibbs-White” — 5 November 2025, 17:00 GMT · source
• “another four-goal draw isn't out of the question.” — 19 February 2026, 19:02 GMT · source

• Pays out at 28-1 with Betfair

  · Source

• Pays out at 10-1 with Betfair Click for free bets and betting offers from the Racing Post

  · Source

• Card magnet Duje Caleta-Car Assist ace Malick Fofana Set-piece aerial threat Duje Caleta-Car

  · Source

• Lyon Star man Alexandre Lacazette Top scorer Malick Fofana Penalty taker Alexandre Lacazette

  · Source

• Card magnet Jefte Assist ace James Tavernier Set-piece aerial threat John Souttar

  · Source

• Inside info Rangers Star man James Tavernier Top scorer Cyriel Dessers Penalty taker James Tavernier

  · Source

• Defender Moussa Niakhate may also feature.

  · Source

• Ernest Nuamah and Gift Orban could be recalled after missing that victory.

  · Source

• Captain Alexandre Lacazette is expected to start after being benched for the weekend win at Toulouse.

  · Source

• Danilo (knee), Rabbi Matondo (hamstring), Ridvan Yilmaz (thigh) and Oscar Cortes (knock) are absent.

  · Source

• Mohamed Diomande is back in training after a knock ruled him out of the game against Hibs.

  · Source

• Rangers Jefte is available after missing last week’s win in Malmo through suspension

  · Source

• Key stat Lyon have lost just one of their last five matches

  · Source

• Rangers 6-4 Lyon 9-5 Draw 12-5 Odds correct at time of publishing

  · Source

• Reports in Spain say he is carrying a slight knock but Simeone was wrapping him in cotton wool

  27 Apr 2026, 18:20 BST · Source

• Alvarez not afraid of trying his luck

  27 Apr 2026, 18:20 BST · Source

• Pays out at 9-1 with bet365

  · Source

• Place any bet on Fulham vs Southampton with Sky Bet and claim £40 in free football bets.

  · Source

• Mohamed Diomande is suspended after being sent off against Genk.

  1 Oct 2025, 15:29 BST · Source

• Arjan Malic, Axel Kayombo and Daniil Khudyakov are all absent for the hosts.

  1 Oct 2025, 15:29 BST · Source

• Callum Hudson-Odoi is a doubt with a knock, Douglas Luiz is expected to miss out with a hamstring injury

  5 Nov 2025, 17:00 GMT · Source

• Max Johnston and Belmin Beganovic are absent with hamstring and ankle injuries, respectively

  5 Nov 2025, 17:00 GMT · Source

• The Tricky Trees felt hard done by to draw 2-2 with Manchester United on Saturday

  5 Nov 2025, 17:00 GMT · Source

• Sean Dyche's only win in his three-game tenure as Nottingham Forest manager was last month's 2-0 victory over Porto

  5 Nov 2025, 17:00 GMT · Source

• Nolan Galves is unavailable due to a knee issue.

  20 Sep 2026, 08:00 BST · Source

• Raul Jimenez is sidelined with a knee injury.

  20 Sep 2026, 08:00 BST · Source

• Pays out at 4.3-1 with bet365

  20 Sep 2026, 08:00 BST · Source

• The Dutchman was best-priced at 9-1 to be the next Premier League manager to leave his role on Sunday morning

  · Source

• United have drifted to 15-2 for a Champions League return but more pressing is the talk over Ten Hag's future.

  · Source

• Spurs are up to eighth in the table, three points behind fourth-placed Chelsea, and 11-4 for a top-four finish.

  · Source

• Erik ten Hag is 6-5 to be sacked as Manchester United boss before Thursday's game against Porto

  · Source

• Betfair are offering £50 in free bets when you bet £10 on Rangers vs Lyon.

  · Source

• Defenders Tommy Smith, Alex Bangura, Darragh Lenihan and Dael Fry are all out for Middlesbrough

  · Source

• Daryl Dike appears to be West Brom's only absentee.

  · Source

• Betfair are offering £50 in free bets when you bet £10 on West Brom vs Middlesbrough.

  · Source

• January signing Jeremy Arevalo was not included in Die Roten's revised Europa League squad.

  19 Feb 2026, 19:02 GMT · Source

• Nikolas Nartey is available after recovering from a knee knock.

  19 Feb 2026, 19:02 GMT · Source

The full list is in the JSON and CSV downloads of this page.

The same data, machine-readable

• Page data (JSON)
• Recorded picks (CSV)

From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.

Share cards of this record (2)

• Bankroll card — Jack Ogalbe
• Said → happened — Jack Ogalbe

For the author of this record (1)

• Your record on Forecast Record: Jack Ogalbe

Check us

• How we count
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• What we collect
• Corrections log
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Calculations for the displayed picks

Record definitions and related evidence

• Return over time
• Recorded picks and results
• Matches
• How this return was calculated
• Archived before kick-off — definition
• L
• W
• 9