Steve Davies: football tipster record — archive reconstruction

Where Steve Davies publishes

Published under this name on racingpost.com.

Totals are kept per platform. Predictions from every platform are listed below, each marked with its platform.

Record card

To link to this record from your site or bio, copy the line below. It states only the facts of this record.

<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/authors/steve-davies/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 288 predictions · last change 2 November 2026</a>

Recorded before kick-off: supporting evidence

Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.

How the market price is set

Recorded before kick-off, graded after the match

5 predictions recorded before kick-off. Right in 4 of 5.

Prices implied by market

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Archived before kick-off · 14 settled archived picks · −28.9%

Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.

52 predictions; 18 checked against the final score.

14 settled selections across 10 matches, 10 August 2024 – 3 May 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −28.9% (95.0% interval −82.5% to +30.4%).

Eligible prices were available for 14 of the 18 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 5 of 14 decided picks (35.7%); the prices of the same picks implied 41.1%.

By market: Match result 0 of 2 (0 W / 2 L) Small sample (2).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Found after kick-off · 21 settled after-match picks · +8.6%

First Found after kick-off; the date is the one the source states.

76 predictions; 25 checked against the final score.

21 settled selections across 18 matches, 19 October 2024 – 13 September 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: +8.6% (95.0% interval −37.0% to +55.4%).

Eligible prices were available for 21 of the 25 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 11 of 21 decided picks (52.4%); the prices of the same picks implied 47.6%.

By market: Match result 0 of 2 (0 W / 2 L) Small sample (2).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.

What kind of number is this?

Measured

Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; our pre-match market snapshot of each settled pick; the time of each pre-match web-archive copy.

Stated

The author’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.

Calculated

Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.

Unknown

Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published; who made the predictions whose attribution is under review.

The four data statuses

What this record covers

We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything Steve Davies has published.

Source we monitor

racingpost.com

Channels

website

Watched by us

28 September – 7 November 2026

Earlier entries

restored from archives, back to 10 August 2024

Without a match page

148 predictions

Attribution under review

4 predictions, kept out of this record’s totals

Stated price vs market

How the prices this author stated compare with an independent market price of the same selection. Calculated from the picks where both prices are known; a gap can come from market movement or from one bookmaker offering more than the market, so it describes the stated prices, not the reason for them.

Closing market price (restored) — the closing market price of the same selection (restored history). Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5.0% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way. The closing price is the final price before kick-off. The price when the pick was published is unknown for restored history, so this row shows the distance to where the market closed.

Pre-match close: the last market price for the same selection before kick-off. Definition.

Author's response

No author's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.

Respond or request a correction

Coverage and exclusions

One set of records: the author’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.

Statements

1,475

Predictions

288

Qualifying picks

67

Settled picks

50

Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.

Statements that are not predictions: 306 opinions and 881 not about a match.

How this return was calculated

Every settled pick in “Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)” is a stake of 100 points at the last pre-match archive price, a reconstruction at archived prices on picks archived before kick-off only. The net result (−405 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 14 settled archived picks; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (1,400 points), void picks excluded. Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.

Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.

Separate comparison window — last 90 days: −200 points on 2 live picks settled in this window · 2 matches · 25–31 October 2026 (calculated, method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted

Changes to this record

The headline number above is (reconstruction method 1.1, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only). When it changes, the earlier figure stays here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.

Data corrected · 22 October 2026

Before

−28.7% on 16 settled picks across 11 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (16)

After

−28.9% on 14 settled picks across 10 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (14)

Data corrected: 2 picks left the headline sample.

Coverage extended · 22 October 2026

Before

−28.9% on 14 settled picks across 10 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (14)

After

−28.7% on 16 settled picks across 11 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (16)

Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Data corrected · 19 October 2026

Before

−33.7% on 15 settled picks across 11 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (15)

After

−28.9% on 14 settled picks across 10 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (14)

Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.

Data corrected · 18 October 2026

Before

−28.7% on 16 settled picks across 11 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (16)

After

−33.7% on 15 settled picks across 11 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (15)

Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.

Coverage extended · 18 October 2026

Before

−33.7% on 15 settled picks across 11 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (15)

After

−28.7% on 16 settled picks across 11 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (16)

Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Data corrected · 16 October 2026

Before

−23.9% on 15 settled picks across 11 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (15)

After

−33.7% on 15 settled picks across 11 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (15)

Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample; 1 pick added.

Data corrected · 15 October 2026

Before

−18.5% on 14 settled picks across 9 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (14)

After

−23.9% on 15 settled picks across 11 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (15)

Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample; 2 picks added.

Method changed · 9 October 2026

Before

−36.1% on 19 settled picks across 13 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (19)

After

−18.5% on 14 settled picks across 9 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (14)

The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first Found after kick-off no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (19 settled picks). Now: reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (14 settled picks).

Method changed · 9 October 2026

Before

−395.00 points on 6 settled picks across 3 matches · author's stated odds, restored · Reconstruction method 1.0

After

−36.1% on 19 settled picks across 13 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (19)

The headline number is now calculated in a different series: “second data provider's closing price, restored” (19 settled picks) instead of “author's stated odds, restored” (6 settled picks). The series is chosen by the published rule; the earlier figure is kept here.

Who this is

Last recorded by us

7 November 2026, the date of this page's data

Observed

28 September 2026 — 7 November 2026

Channels

website

Statements other than predictions (44 shown)

• “they are acutely aware of the importance of a match such as this against the division's bottom side.” — 1 October 2026, 02:13 BST · source
• “this game is his priority.” — 1 October 2026, 02:13 BST · source
• “And Pompey are well aware of the threat Argyle possess at Home Park in front of their own fans.” — 1 October 2026, 02:13 BST · source
• “it's a task they may not relish.” — 1 October 2026, 02:13 BST · source
• “Expect goals and expect them at both ends.” — 1 October 2026, 02:05 BST · source
• “yet there's enough inconsistency about Newcastle to suggest this isn't quite a done deal.” — 1 October 2026, 02:05 BST · source
• “There is little to commend Brentford in terms of scheduling or form for this trip to Tyneside” — 1 October 2026, 02:05 BST · source
• “don't be surprised if this one adds to that figure.” — 1 October 2026, 01:36 BST · source
• “This is an eighth game in 24 days for Liverpool and coming ahead of a trip to Bournemouth and a League Cup semi-final showdown with Tottenham, this is way down the list of priorities.” — 28 January 2025, 16:45 GMT · source
• “PSV, always positive at home anyway, can probably lose and go through, although a draw - which would also guarantee Liverpool top spot - would certainly do the Dutch giants.” — 28 January 2025, 16:45 GMT · source
• “Slot can make changes and still send out a strong team, although he can afford a first defeat of the campaign with a top-two spot in the standings assured.” — 28 January 2025, 16:45 GMT · source
• “Arne Slot's first working trip home since becoming Liverpool boss could end with the novelty of the Reds not winning.” — 28 January 2025, 16:45 GMT · source
• “"Unacceptable" was boss Kieran McKenna's verdict” — 24 October 2025, 16:00 BST · source
• “That makes Charlton an attractive punting proposition on a stage where they are not accustomed to losing.” — 22 August 2025, 16:30 BST · source
• “Ipswich should get over the line but a 2-0 scoreline would be the correct-score suggestion.” — 11 August 2025, 17:16 BST · source
• “take a rusty, reshuffled Ipswich side to edge a win.” — 11 August 2025, 17:16 BST · source
• “expect their class to tell but not necessarily manifest itself in an inflated scoreline.” — 11 August 2025, 17:16 BST · source

• Ladbrokes are offering £25 in free bets when you bet £5 on Plymouth vs Portsmouth.

  · Source

• Alexis Mac Allister is suspended.

  · Source

• Key midfielder Yangel Herrera and forward Victor Tshyankov will miss the visit of Liverpool through injury.

  · Source

• Pays out at 10-3 with bet365

  · Source

• Place any bet on Girona vs Liverpool with Sky Bet and claim £40 in free football bets.

  · Source

• Pays out at 8-1 with bet365

  · Source

• Record signing Igor Thiago has returned to training and should make the bench.

  · Source

• Sven Botman has returned to action but won't be involved. Sean Longstaff is suspended.

  · Source

• Newcastle United 8-15 with Sky Bet Brentford 19-5 with Sky Bet Draw 3-1 with Sky Bet

  · Source

• Place any bet on Newcastle United vs Brentford with Sky Bet and claim £40 in free football bets.

  · Source

• Sign up with Sky Bet to bet on Wrexham vs Coventry in the Championship.

  30 Oct 2025, 17:00 GMT · Source

• Pays out at 5-1 with Paddy Power

  30 Oct 2025, 17:00 GMT · Source

• Click for more free bets and betting offers from the Racing Post

  · Source

• Victor Torp should replace Josh Eccles, who took a knock.

  · Source

• Diogo Jota and Curtis Jones are injured. Joe Gomez is back in training but will not feature.

  28 Jan 2025, 16:45 GMT · Source

• Centre-back Ryan Flamingo is suspended. Playmaker Malik Tillman has joined fellow US international Sergino Dest on the injured list.

  28 Jan 2025, 16:45 GMT · Source

• You can bet on PSV vs Liverpool and get £1 for every goal scored in the Champions League on Wednesday

  28 Jan 2025, 16:45 GMT · Source

• NEW CUSTOMER OFFER 50/1 Sir Gino To Win 15.00 At Cheltenham

  28 Jan 2025, 16:45 GMT · Source

• You can watch PSV vs Liverpool in the Champions League at 8pm on Wednesday, January 29, live on TNT Sports 3

  28 Jan 2025, 16:45 GMT · Source

• Sign up with Ladbrokes to bet on Ipswich vs West Brom in the Championship.

  24 Oct 2025, 16:00 BST · Source

• There have been over 2.5 goals in six of Ipswich's last seven Championship matches

  24 Oct 2025, 16:00 BST · Source

• Pays out at 5.9-1 with Paddy Power

  24 Oct 2025, 16:00 BST · Source

• Midfielder Toby Collyer limped out of the 2-1 loss at Watford and is ruled out.

  24 Oct 2025, 16:00 BST · Source

• Christian Walton will make his first league start after first-choice No.1 Alex Palmer pulled his calf against Charlton.

  24 Oct 2025, 16:00 BST · Source

• Club captain Ricardo Pereira has recovered from a hamstring injury

  22 Aug 2025, 16:30 BST · Source

• Centre-back Reece Burke has returned to training.

  22 Aug 2025, 16:30 BST · Source

• Pays out at 4.54-1 with Paddy Power

  22 Aug 2025, 16:30 BST · Source

The full list is in the JSON and CSV downloads of this page.

The same data, machine-readable

• Page data (JSON)
• Recorded picks (CSV)

From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.

Share cards of this record (2)

• Bankroll card — Steve Davies
• Said → happened — Steve Davies

For the author of this record (1)

• Your record on Forecast Record: Steve Davies

Check us

• How we count
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Calculations for the displayed picks

Record definitions and related evidence

• Return over time
• Recorded picks and results
• Matches
• How this return was calculated
• Archived before kick-off — definition
• L
• L
• 15