Liam Flin: football tipster record — archive reconstruction

Record overview

• 69 from the pre-match archive · 2024–2025
• 34 Found after kick-off

Record details and history below

Where Liam Flin publishes

Identity checked on 11 October 2026 against public sources: racingpost.com, livescore.com.

Totals are kept per platform. Predictions from every platform are listed below, each marked with its platform.

Record card

To link to this record from your site or bio, copy the line below. It states only the facts of this record.

<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/authors/liam-flin/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 201 predictions · last change 11 October 2026</a>

Archived before kick-off · 58 settled archived picks · −19.2%

Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.

139 predictions; 69 checked against the final score.

58 settled selections across 44 matches, 12 August 2024 – 3 May 2025.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −19.2% (95.0% interval −46.7% to +8.7%).

Eligible prices were available for 58 of the 69 selections checked against the result.

Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 25 of 58 decided picks (43.1%); the prices of the same picks implied 50.8%.

By market: Match result 10 of 20 (prices implied 45.5%); Over/under goals 5 of 10 (prices implied 58.8%); Both teams to score 5 of 8 (prices implied 64.0%); Double chance 2 of 8 (prices implied 55.6%); Result and total goals 2 of 5 (prices implied 47.0%); Other markets 1 of 7 (prices implied 37.0%).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Found after kick-off · 29 settled after-match picks · +3.7%

First Found after kick-off; the date is the one the source states.

62 predictions; 35 checked against the final score.

29 settled selections across 24 matches, 13 August 2024 – 13 April 2025.

Reconstructed at archived prices: +3.7% (95.0% interval −39.0% to +48.7%).

Eligible prices were available for 29 of the 35 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 14 of 28 decided picks (50.0%); the prices of the same picks implied 48.8%.

By market: Match result 5 of 11 (prices implied 45.6%); Over/under goals 3 of 4 (prices implied 67.6%); Result and both teams to score 1 of 4 (prices implied 33.5%); Both teams to score 2 of 2 (prices implied 61.7%); Double chance 0 of 2 (prices implied 52.7%); Other markets 3 of 5 (prices implied 46.4%).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own. 1 pick left out: void, or half won or half lost on a quarter-goal line.

An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.

Record details and history

Record details

• Most recorded: Match result (1X2) · 20 matches

  Match result (1X2) 10/20 (20 matches); Double chance and draw no bet 5/13 (12 matches); Goals over/under 5/10 (10 matches); Both teams to score 5/8 (8 matches); Bet-builder combos 2/6 (6 matches); Goalscorer picks 2/5 (5 matches); Team goals and win to nil 1/4 (4 matches); Correct score 0/2 (2 matches)

  Most recorded bet type: the rule

• Exact scores · 0/2

  Exact scores: the rule

• Longest price: correct at 3.32 · 27 Nov 2024

  Bologna v Lille · Away win at 3.32 (archive closing price)

  Pre-match close: the last market price for the same selection before kick-off. Definition.

  Correct at a long price: the rule

Each title is a fact about past picks, by published rules. How titles work

What kind of number is this?

Measured

Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; the time of each pre-match web-archive copy.

Stated

The author’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.

Calculated

Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.

Unknown

Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published.

The four data statuses

What this record covers

We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything Liam Flin has published.

Source we monitor

racingpost.com

Channels

website

Watched by us

28 September – 17 October 2026

Earlier entries

restored from archives, back to 12 August 2024

Stated price vs market

How the prices this author stated compare with an independent market price of the same selection. Calculated from the picks where both prices are known; a gap can come from market movement or from one bookmaker offering more than the market, so it describes the stated prices, not the reason for them.

Closing market price (restored) — the closing market price of the same selection (restored history). Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5.0% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way. The closing price is the final price before kick-off. The price when the pick was published is unknown for restored history, so this row shows the distance to where the market closed.

Author's response

No author's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.

Respond or request a correction

Coverage and exclusions

One set of records: the author’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.

Statements

568

Predictions

201

Qualifying picks

121

Settled picks

104

Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.

Statements that are not predictions: 124 opinions and 243 not about a match.

How this return was calculated

Every settled pick in “Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)” is a stake of 100 points at the last pre-match archive price, a reconstruction at archived prices on picks archived before kick-off only. The net result (−1,115.50 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 58 settled archived picks; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (5,800 points), void picks excluded. Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.

Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.

Separate comparison window — last 90 days: the return appears from the first settled pick in this window (method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted

Changes to this record

The headline number above is (reconstruction method 1.1, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only). When it changes, the earlier figure stays here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.

Data corrected · 3 November 2026

Before

−21.9% on 63 settled picks across 46 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−19.2% on 58 settled picks across 44 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 5 picks left the headline sample.

Data corrected · 22 October 2026

Before

−20.9% on 68 settled picks across 48 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−21.9% on 63 settled picks across 46 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 5 picks left the headline sample.

Coverage extended · 22 October 2026

Before

−21.9% on 63 settled picks across 46 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−20.9% on 68 settled picks across 48 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 5 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Data corrected · 19 October 2026

Before

−24.8% on 67 settled picks across 48 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−21.9% on 63 settled picks across 46 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 4 picks left the headline sample.

Data corrected · 18 October 2026

Before

−20.7% on 72 settled picks across 50 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−24.8% on 67 settled picks across 48 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 2 picks left the headline sample.

Coverage extended · 18 October 2026

Before

−24.8% on 67 settled picks across 48 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−20.7% on 72 settled picks across 50 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Data corrected · 16 October 2026

Before

−27.4% on 65 settled picks across 45 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−24.8% on 67 settled picks across 48 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample; 3 picks added.

Data corrected · 16 October 2026

Before

−24.5% on 69 settled picks across 47 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−27.4% on 65 settled picks across 45 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 4 picks left the headline sample.

Coverage extended · 15 October 2026

Before

−23.3% on 68 settled picks across 47 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−24.5% on 69 settled picks across 47 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Method changed · 9 October 2026

Before

−5.7% on 64 settled picks across 47 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−23.3% on 68 settled picks across 47 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first Found after kick-off no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (64 settled picks). Now: reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (68 settled picks).

Coverage extended · 9 October 2026

Before

−39.3% on 16 settled picks across 11 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (16)

After

−5.7% on 64 settled picks across 47 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 48 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Who this is

Last recorded by us

17 October 2026, 21 days before this page's data date

Observed

28 September 2026 — 17 October 2026

Channels

website

Statements other than predictions (49 shown)

• “they look a solid pick against Stuttgart” — 2 October 2026, 01:47 BST · source
• “it could be a gritty affair” — 1 October 2026, 02:15 BST · source
• “this could be a tight contest” — 1 October 2026, 02:09 BST · source
• “They can edge a high-scoring battle in Croatia” — 1 October 2026, 02:09 BST · source
• “there should be goals in their meeting on Wednesday” — 1 October 2026, 02:09 BST · source
• “they should be too strong for Bologna” — 1 October 2026, 02:09 BST · source
• “look well-placed to defeat the Austrians” — 1 October 2026, 02:09 BST · source
• “they should come out on top” — 1 October 2026, 02:09 BST · source
• “They could struggle to tame Stuttgart” — 1 October 2026, 02:09 BST · source
• “Goals could rain down on Vitality Stadium” — 1 October 2026, 02:08 BST · source
• “their next opponents Salzburg lost 5-0 to Bayer Leverkusen on matchday five” — 1 October 2026, 02:07 BST · source
• “They could again struggle on the road to Club Brugge” — 1 October 2026, 02:07 BST · source
• “they are fancied to ease past Shakhtar Donetsk” — 1 October 2026, 02:07 BST · source
• “they can continue their fine run away to the Ligue 1 side” — 1 October 2026, 02:07 BST · source
• “they could be up against it when they face Inter” — 1 October 2026, 02:07 BST · source
• “they are fancied to win their next contest against Sparta Prague” — 1 October 2026, 02:06 BST · source
• “they could be denied victory at Signal Iduna Park.” — 1 October 2026, 02:06 BST · source
• “Dortmund can avoid defeat against Barcelona in this week's standout fixture.” — 1 October 2026, 02:06 BST · source
• “back the Portuguese giants to edge a low-scoring contest.” — 1 October 2026, 02:06 BST · source
• “they are likely to be too strong for visitors Red Star Belgrade.” — 1 October 2026, 02:06 BST · source

• Burnley (4-2-3-1): Hladky; Roberts, Esteve, O'Shea, Vitinho; Cullen, Brownhill; Koleosho,

  · Source

• Luton (3-4-1-2): Kaminski; Walters, Holmes, Johnson; Ogbene, Clark, Baptiste, Doughty; Chong;

  · Source

• Paddy Power are offering 100-1 on Man Utd and 50-1 on Liverpool to win.

  · Source

• Probable teams Arsenal (4-3-3): Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko;

  · Source

• Tymur Puzankov is out but Danylo Sikan came off the bench against Kolos on Friday

  · Source

• Martin Odegaard remains unavailable for Arsenal, but Bukayo Saka could be involved in the squad.

  · Source

• FREE BETS Check out all our Offers on our Free Bets pages

  · Source

• Adrian Sut is on compassionate leave and will not feature

  · Source

• Oscar Cortes, Rabbi Matondo and Ridvan Yilmaz are likely to miss out through injury

  · Source

• NEW CUSTOMER OFFER £40 in Free Accumulator Bets When You Place a £10 Bet

  · Source

• Star man Cole Palmer Top scorer Cole Palmer Penalty taker Cole Palmer Card magnet Wesley Fofana Assist

  · Source

• Star man Bruno Fernandes Top scorer Alejandro Garnacho Penalty taker Bruno Fernandes Card magnet Lisandro

  · Source

• Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Sanchez; Gusto, Fofana, Colwill, James; Caicedo, Lavia; Madueke, Palmer, Neto; Jackson

  · Source

• Manchester United (4-2-3-1): Onana; Mazraoui, De Ligt, Martinez, Dalot; Casemiro, Ugarte; Rashford,

  · Source

• Jadon Sancho is unavailable as he cannot face his parent club.

  · Source

• Omari Kellyman is out with a hamstring problem but Chelsea otherwise have a fully fit squad.

  · Source

• Antony, Harry Maguire, Kobbie Mainoo, Tyrell Malacia, Mason Mount, Luke Shaw and Leny Yoro are expected

  · Source

• Manchester United 13-8 Chelsea 8-5 Draw 14-5

  · Source

• You can bet on Manchester United vs Chelsea and get 75-1 on either side to win the match with Paddy Power

  · Source

• Paddy Power have a sensational 75-1 pick-your-winner offer for this clash which can be claimed here

  · Source

• Sky Bet are offering £40 in free bets when you place any bet on this week's Champions League matches.

  · Source

• Bournemouth (4-2-3-1): Kepa; Smith, Zabarnyi, Senesi, Kerkez; Adams, Christie; Semenyo, Kluivert,

  · Source

• Pays out at 7-1 with bet365

  · Source

• Ladbrokes are offering £25 in free bets when you place any bet on this week's Champions League matches.

  · Source

• they should not be overly fazed by struggling Austrians Sturm Graz.

  · Source

• Paddy Power are offering £50 in free bets when you place any bet on this week's Champions League matches.

  · Source

• Emerson is suspended while Michail Antonio has undergone surgery on a lower limb fracture

  · Source

• The Cherries will be without Marcos Senesi and Marcus Tavernier but Tyler Adams is available again.

  · Source

• Place any bet on Bournemouth vs West Ham with Sky Bet and claim £40 in free football bets.

  · Source

The full list is in the JSON and CSV downloads of this page.

The same data, machine-readable

• Page data (JSON)
• Recorded picks (CSV)

From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.

Share cards of this record (2)

• Bankroll card — Liam Flin
• Said → happened — Liam Flin

For the author of this record (1)

• Your record on Forecast Record: Liam Flin

Check us

• How we count
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• Corrections log
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Calculations for the displayed picks

Record definitions and related evidence

• Return over time
• Recorded picks and results
• Matches
• How this return was calculated
• Archived before kick-off — definition
• 11