{
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 "schema_version": "2.0",
 "page_type": "source",
 "url": "/sources/racing-post/",
 "canonical": "/sources/racing-post/",
 "language": "en",
 "hreflang": [],
 "translations": [],
 "heading": "Racing Post: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "16 named Racing Post football tipsters, 589 settled picks between them: James Milton, Aaron Ashley, Dan Childs and more, each with a measured record.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record measures 16 named authors publishing football tips at Racing Post: 589 settled picks at Racing Post between them, each counted on the author’s own page. Most settled picks here: James Milton 119, Aaron Ashley 103, Dan Childs 89. Forecast Record restored 5 settled archived picks by Racing Post Football Tips from copies archived before kick-off, across 5 matches between 14 September 2024 and 10 May 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 2 of 5 settled archived picks. Of the 27 predictions we hold for Racing Post Football Tips, 13 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 14 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "key_number": "16",
  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
  "brand": "Forecast Record"
 },
 "indexable": true,
 "noindex_reason": null,
 "indexing_threshold": {
  "settled_count": 580,
  "date_count": 82,
  "required_settled": 10,
  "required_dates": 2
 },
 "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z",
 "content_hash": null,
 "meaning_hash": "b2e850ec8c87828f53160a4860bf0c48d4d96f0e4eb6724268a31b953110439f",
 "dependency_group": "author:e-9a6750bc9c326207f3e3e471",
 "release_id": "20261107-195223",
 "markup": [
  {
   "type_code": "WebPage",
   "allowed": true,
   "cause": null
  },
  {
   "type_code": "Organization",
   "allowed": true,
   "cause": null
  }
 ],
 "exports": [
  {
   "type_code": "json",
   "url": "/sources/racing-post/index.json",
   "bytes": null
  },
  {
   "type_code": "csv",
   "url": "/sources/racing-post/picks.csv",
   "bytes": null
  }
 ],
 "modules": {
  "affiliate": true,
  "api": true,
  "compare_yourself": false
 },
 "affiliate_block": {
  "container": true,
  "request_url": "/partnery/moi",
  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
  "page_category": "author"
 },
 "restrictions": {
  "name_withdrawn": false,
  "tracker_number": null,
  "withdrawn_quotes": [],
  "removed_at": null,
  "cause": null,
  "suspended_records": [],
  "withdrawal_log_number": 0
 },
 "page_links": {
  "methodology": "/methodology/",
  "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/",
  "source_coverage": "/coverage/",
  "corrections_log": "/corrections/",
  "api": "/api/",
  "claim": "/claim/"
 },
 "entity": {
  "id": "e-9a6750bc9c326207f3e3e471",
  "public_name": "Racing Post Football Tips",
  "tracker_number": 1533,
  "status": "active",
  "inactive_since": null,
  "verified_creator": false,
  "observation_period": {
   "since": "2026-09-28",
   "until": "2026-10-02"
  },
  "platform_list": [
   {
    "medium": "website",
    "handle": null,
    "url": null,
    "link_confirmed": false,
    "show": true
   }
  ],
  "comment": null
 },
 "headline_number": {
  "metric": {
   "metric_id": "p-e-9a6750bc9c326207f3e3e471-roi-market-price-90d-z99",
   "code_name": "roi_market_price",
   "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot",
   "window_kind": "90d",
   "window_from": "2026-08-09",
   "window_to": "2026-11-07",
   "amount": null,
   "unit": "percent",
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "no pick in this window has been settled",
   "n_bets": 0,
   "n_events": 0,
   "n_void": null,
   "ci_low": null,
   "ci_high": null,
   "ci_method": "not_estimated",
   "price_source": "market_price",
   "coverage_percent": null,
   "breakdown": [],
   "methodology_version": "2.2",
   "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
   "enough_for_ranking": false,
   "series_key": "market_price",
   "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot"
  },
  "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 0 settled picks across 0 matches",
  "average_odds": null,
  "odds_from_author": null,
  "odds_from_snapshot": null
 },
 "metrics": [],
 "history": [],
 "simulation": {
  "series_key": null,
  "series_label": "No level stake placed",
  "bankroll_hundredths": 1000000,
  "reserve_hundredths": 0,
  "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000,
  "initial_hundredths": 1000000,
  "stake_hundredths": 10000,
  "top_up_count": 0,
  "profit_hundredths": 0,
  "rewards_off": null,
  "data_points": [],
  "top_ups": [],
  "rule": "Every tracked author starts with 10,000 points and stakes 100 per qualifying pick. This author has 0 settled bets, so the bankroll stands at its starting value."
 },
 "simulations": [],
 "completeness": {
  "detected": 216,
  "recognised": 27,
  "accepted": 13,
  "executed": 13,
  "calculated": 11,
  "gaps": [
   {
    "cause": "not_supported",
    "figure": 14
   }
  ]
 },
 "record_counts": {
  "dictionary_version": "1",
  "statements": 216,
  "of_them_restored": 216,
  "not_predictions": {
   "opinions": 7,
   "not_about_a_match": 182,
   "unclassified": 0
  },
  "predictions": 27,
  "predictions_restored": 27,
  "matches": 0,
  "admitted": 13,
  "qualifying_picks": 13,
  "qualifying_picks_restored": 13,
  "settled_picks": 11,
  "settled_picks_restored": 11,
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "derived": false,
    "is_restored": true,
    "qualifying_picks": 2,
    "settled_picks": 1,
    "void": 0,
    "pending_picks": 1,
    "matches": 1,
    "operations_settled": 1,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
     10000
    ],
    "methodologies": [
     "retro-1.0"
    ],
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "derived": false,
    "is_restored": true,
    "qualifying_picks": 12,
    "settled_picks": 10,
    "void": 0,
    "pending_picks": 2,
    "matches": 10,
    "operations_settled": 10,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
     10000
    ],
    "methodologies": [
     "retro-1.0"
    ],
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "derived": false,
    "is_restored": true,
    "qualifying_picks": 10,
    "settled_picks": 8,
    "void": 0,
    "pending_picks": 2,
    "matches": 8,
    "operations_settled": 8,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
     10000
    ],
    "methodologies": [
     "retro-1.1"
    ],
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   }
  ],
  "gaps": [
   {
    "code_name": "not_supported",
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    "figure": 14
   }
  ],
  "duplicates": 0,
  "junk": {
   "ads": 23,
   "service": 3
  },
  "dictionary_url": "/methodology/#words"
 },
 "evidence_items": [
  {
   "observation_id": "n-a95d7e22d6326f3dd85b505a",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-a95d7e22d6326f3dd85b505a",
   "quote_text": "Aston Villa vs Everton Sky Bet enhanced odds: get 50-1 for one or more Villa shots on target",
   "fragment_from": 11382,
   "fragment_to": 11474,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240913214422id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/premier-league-match-predictions-odds-tips-a7L939M3Olxd/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": null,
    "authorship": "unknown",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "fd0dd603e3a3134aa2ad2bee188f43ffa7800208979f2cdb9ebf322096da0f28",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:53:06.701Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "ambiguous",
   "cause": "",
   "cause_code": "ambiguous",
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
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   "odds_set": {
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    "our_snapshot": null,
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    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-09-13T13:37:59.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:53:06.701Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-60f088ad30e0e80cae04c136",
   "url": "/sources/racing-post/picks/3/#pick-n-60f088ad30e0e80cae04c136",
   "quote_text": "Manchester City to win & under 3.5 goals\n2pts 7-5 bet365, BoyleSports",
   "fragment_from": 1372,
   "fragment_to": 1441,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240913214422id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/premier-league-match-predictions-odds-tips-a7L939M3Olxd/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": null,
    "authorship": "unknown",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "fd0dd603e3a3134aa2ad2bee188f43ffa7800208979f2cdb9ebf322096da0f28",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2024-09-13T13:37:59.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:53:06.701Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "cause_code": "disputed_reading",
   "event": {
    "event_id": null,
    "display_name": "Manchester City v Brentford",
    "competition_name": "Premier League",
    "starts_at": "2024-09-14T14:00:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": null
   },
   "market_label": "Match result and over/under 3.5 goals",
   "outcome_label": "Manchester City to win and under 3.5 goals",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "2.4",
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": "2.2500",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "unknown",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-09-13T21:44:22.000Z",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2024-09-13T13:37:59.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2024-09-13T13:37:59.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:53:06.701Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-09-13T21:44:22.000Z",
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": "Added to our record on 2 Oct 2026",
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "Match result and over/under 3.5 goals",
    "choice": "Manchester City to win and under 3.5 goals",
    "author_odds": "2.4",
    "market_key": "result_and_total",
    "choice_key": "1-under",
    "period": "match",
    "line": "3.5",
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "Match result and over/under 3.5 goals: Manchester City to win and under 3.5 goals at 2.4"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "unknown",
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "awaiting a final score for this restored pick",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "Pending: awaiting a final score for this restored pick."
   },
   "settlements": [
    {
     "operation_id": "6cdd74c52919aaef2e090ea5ff02060b74b9f43e63338980ae7b858336dfeb23",
     "series_key": "retro_author_price",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Match result and over/under 3.5 goals",
     "choice": "Manchester City to win and under 3.5 goals",
     "decimal_odds": "2.4",
     "odds_role": "author_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "skipped",
     "status_text": "Not executed: ",
     "result": "unknown",
     "result_words": "Pending",
     "change_hundredths": null,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:28:00.027Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    },
    {
     "operation_id": "fafc56789d5be0d141fb242f06bc6f0ca36a7688202a7454f6b6cf201a04fc7d",
     "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Match result and over/under 3.5 goals",
     "choice": "Manchester City to win and under 3.5 goals",
     "decimal_odds": "2.2500",
     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "skipped",
     "status_text": "Not executed: ",
     "result": "unknown",
     "result_words": "Pending",
     "change_hundredths": null,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:28:14.539Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Racing Post Sport Staff",
    "publisher": "racingpost.com",
    "forecaster": "Racing Post Sport Staff",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/premier-league-match-predictions-odds-tips-a7L939M3Olxd/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
    "verdict_line": null
   },
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-4471c17c7f906c018c834e60",
   "url": "/sources/racing-post/picks/3/#pick-n-4471c17c7f906c018c834e60",
   "quote_text": "Over 2.5 goals & both teams to score in Crystal Palace vs Leicester\n1pt 5-4 BoyleSports",
   "fragment_from": 1195,
   "fragment_to": 1282,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240913214422id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/premier-league-match-predictions-odds-tips-a7L939M3Olxd/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": null,
    "authorship": "unknown",
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    "bundle_id": "fd0dd603e3a3134aa2ad2bee188f43ffa7800208979f2cdb9ebf322096da0f28",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:53:06.701Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "not_supported",
   "cause": "",
   "cause_code": "not_supported",
   "event": null,
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   "odds_set": {
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
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   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-09-13T13:37:59.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:53:06.701Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
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  },
  {
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-8c08ee4deaddca2f4d0d37b8",
   "quote_text": "next race\n18:00 Dundalk (A.W)",
   "fragment_from": 60,
   "fragment_to": 89,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240920170326id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/premier-league-match-predictions-odds-tips-aiIUo5p3uCzj/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": null,
    "authorship": "unknown",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "950622fec637383dbbe095f1c2532d367c363eca349875c67ae31a75617cf7ca",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:51:23.951Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "ambiguous",
   "cause": "",
   "cause_code": "ambiguous",
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
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    "our_snapshot": null,
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    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-09-20T16:19:49.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:51:23.951Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
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   },
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
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   },
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
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  },
  {
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    "flags": [
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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  },
  {
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-80a6a7687374183dc8df7c31",
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   },
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   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-45949cab94da950ad860758c",
   "quote_text": "Enhanced Offer\n\n4/5\n\nNEW CUSTOMER OFFER\n\n50/1 Man City To Win OR Draw vs Liverpool",
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   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "quote_text": "Verdict by Aaron Ashley",
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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  },
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   "quote_text": "Seven of Everton’s last eight Premier League games have gone under 2.5 goals.",
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   "source_info": {
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
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   "observation_id": "n-cd39559f6fd6902af70c390e",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-cd39559f6fd6902af70c390e",
   "quote_text": "Everton: Forwards Armando Broja and Youssef Chermiti are nearing a return to full fitness but this match comes too soon. Captain Seamus Coleman is a doubt while James Garner and Tim Iroegbunam remain out.",
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   "source_info": {
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-788ba410675cb742f58c9413",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-788ba410675cb742f58c9413",
   "quote_text": "Manchester United: Defenders Harry Maguire and Lisandro Martinez have both returned to training this week but Jonny Evans must be assessed after missing Thursday’s Europa League win. Victor Lindelof and Leny Yoro remain sidelined.",
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   "source_info": {
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   "dates": {
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    "flags": [
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
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    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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   "settlements": [],
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-ccba36cec1f284cfd9130ed6",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-ccba36cec1f284cfd9130ed6",
   "quote_text": "Ruben Amorim is off the mark as Manchester United manager thanks to Thursday’s 3-2 come-from-behind victory at home to Bodo/Glimt in the Europa League and he can claim his maiden Premier League win against Everton.",
   "fragment_from": 1867,
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   "source_info": {
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   },
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   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "quote_text": "Paddy Power are offering 30-1 for Arsenal to beat Southampton.",
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "quote_text": "Sam Johnstone was signed for £10m on Friday",
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   "source_info": {
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   "withdrawn": false,
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   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "no",
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    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:40:00.875Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-8a03237f811c36224035c4d9",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-8a03237f811c36224035c4d9",
   "quote_text": "Danilo remains a long-term absentee.",
   "fragment_from": 10186,
   "fragment_to": 10222,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/premier-league-match-predictions-odds-tips-aM6ge4g76z79/",
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    "material_removed": false
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   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   "cause_code": "ambiguous",
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-30T14:53:07.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:40:00.875Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
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  {
   "observation_id": "n-332036fb5f2a6f49709b2d4d",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-332036fb5f2a6f49709b2d4d",
   "quote_text": "Matty Cash picked up a hamstring injury against Arsenal",
   "fragment_from": 8529,
   "fragment_to": 8584,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/premier-league-match-predictions-odds-tips-aM6ge4g76z79/",
    "display_name": null,
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    "authorship": "unknown",
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    "material_removed": false
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   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:40:00.875Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "ambiguous",
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   "cause_code": "ambiguous",
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   "odds_set": {
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   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-30T14:53:07.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:40:00.875Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
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  {
   "observation_id": "n-a32fc10b6a951625bdcdea12",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-a32fc10b6a951625bdcdea12",
   "quote_text": "Wes Burns, Nathan Broadhead, George Hirst, Janoi Donacien and Harry Clarke have all been ruled out",
   "fragment_from": 6577,
   "fragment_to": 6675,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/premier-league-match-predictions-odds-tips-aM6ge4g76z79/",
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    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:40:00.875Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   "cause_code": "ambiguous",
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-30T14:53:07.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:40:00.875Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  {
   "observation_id": "n-75154f5bdf3fe38715bdfef1",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-75154f5bdf3fe38715bdfef1",
   "quote_text": "Jarrad Branthwaite, Youssef Chermiti and Nathan Patterson are all missing",
   "fragment_from": 4569,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/premier-league-match-predictions-odds-tips-aM6ge4g76z79/",
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   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-30T14:53:07.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:40:00.875Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
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     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  {
   "observation_id": "n-50d0d461a0974f5da15653ca",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-50d0d461a0974f5da15653ca",
   "quote_text": "Aaron Hickey has been ruled out long-term with a hamstring injury.",
   "fragment_from": 2501,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/premier-league-match-predictions-odds-tips-aM6ge4g76z79/",
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   },
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   "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:40:00.875Z",
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   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   "cause_code": "ambiguous",
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-30T14:53:07.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:40:00.875Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-c96b19f3eeea35323e4711fd",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-c96b19f3eeea35323e4711fd",
   "quote_text": "Manchester City as short as 6-4 for relegation as fallout from guilty verdict continues",
   "fragment_from": 13706,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/premier-league-match-predictions-odds-tips-aiIUo5p3uCzj/",
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   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:39:59.719Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "ambiguous",
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   "cause_code": "ambiguous",
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   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-09-20T16:19:49.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:39:59.719Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-a80654f22cb876354d21ebfb",
   "url": "/sources/racing-post/picks/2/#pick-n-a80654f22cb876354d21ebfb",
   "quote_text": "Manchester City to win & under 3.5 goals\n2pts 7-5 bet365, BoyleSports",
   "fragment_from": 1383,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/premier-league-match-predictions-odds-tips-a7L939M3Olxd/",
    "display_name": null,
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    "authorship": "unknown",
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   },
   "published_at": "2024-09-13T13:37:59.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:39:56.517Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:47.958Z",
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": {
    "event_id": null,
    "display_name": "Manchester City v Brentford",
    "competition_name": "Premier League",
    "starts_at": "2024-09-14T14:00:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "2-1"
   },
   "market_label": "Match result and over/under 3.5 goals",
   "outcome_label": "Manchester City to win and under 3.5 goals",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "2.4",
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": "2.2500",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "win",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": 12500,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": "ours",
   "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2024-09-13T13:37:59.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:39:56.517Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "Match result and over/under 3.5 goals",
    "choice": "Manchester City to win and under 3.5 goals",
    "author_odds": "2.4",
    "market_key": "result_and_total",
    "choice_key": "1-under",
    "period": "match",
    "line": "3.5",
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "Match result and over/under 3.5 goals: Manchester City to win and under 3.5 goals at 2.4"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "win",
    "scoreline": "2-1",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "in_words": "Won: the final score was Manchester City 2-1 Brentford."
   },
   "settlements": [
    {
     "operation_id": "d6ec685d98525daca20e44c55249c8015396611c4b04b76940fc2f06bb485d8c",
     "series_key": "retro_author_price",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
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   "source_info": {
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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   "source_info": {
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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  {
   "observation_id": "n-39164dddee31be873e895e6c",
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   "quote_text": "Free Bets\n\nnext race\n06:00 Sha Tin\n\nFREE BETS\nCheck out all our Offers on our Free Bets pages",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-09-27T16:30:52.000Z",
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-0ea6386ddb0836685ab007a9",
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   "quote_text": "Wolves vs Southampton key stat",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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   "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:39:54.629Z",
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   "statement_class": "no_event",
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    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-11-08T16:39:22.000Z",
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     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-24ec78d72ad6525ad3de9636",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-24ec78d72ad6525ad3de9636",
   "quote_text": "Wolves vs Southampton predicted line-ups",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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   "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:39:54.629Z",
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   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   "cause_code": "ambiguous",
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-11-08T16:39:22.000Z",
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "quote_text": "Click for free bets and betting offers from the Racing Post",
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   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "source_info": {
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   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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    "flags": [
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-ba06e99a920b0cfcbabad439",
   "quote_text": "Manchester United vs Arsenal predictions, betting tips and odds: Distracted Red Devils should be put to",
   "fragment_from": 4557,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250308180330id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/portsmouth-vs-leeds-predictions-betting-tips-and-odds-aRCVj0b9jC73/",
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   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
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  },
  {
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-f60451c7916c3f9c67ea7eeb",
   "quote_text": "Or get 60-1 for a goal to be scored in that Premier League clash with Sky Bet",
   "fragment_from": 4461,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250308180330id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/portsmouth-vs-leeds-predictions-betting-tips-and-odds-aRCVj0b9jC73/",
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-3100576537c73655cba8ef82",
   "quote_text": "Get 100-1 for Manchester United to win or 50-1 for Arsenal to win with Paddy Power",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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   "provenance": "restored_archive",
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   "dates": {
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
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   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-e4290ac551f3a6b2c019ef7c",
   "quote_text": "Leeds (4-2-3-1): Meslier; Bogle, Rodon, Struijk, Firpo; Tanaka, Rothwell; James, Aaronson, Solomon;",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250308180330id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/portsmouth-vs-leeds-predictions-betting-tips-and-odds-aRCVj0b9jC73/",
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   "executed_at": null,
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   "provenance": "restored_archive",
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   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "added_on": null,
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-d9f969ef614a5ea4538bec13",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-d9f969ef614a5ea4538bec13",
   "quote_text": "Portsmouth (4-2-3-1): Schmid; Swanson, Pack, Poole, Ogilvie; Hayden, Dozzell; Ritchie, Aouchiche,",
   "fragment_from": 3964,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250308180330id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/portsmouth-vs-leeds-predictions-betting-tips-and-odds-aRCVj0b9jC73/",
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   },
   "published_at": "2025-03-08T14:18:36.000Z",
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   "executed_at": null,
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   "provenance": "restored_archive",
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
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    "detected_at": "2026-09-30T16:16:52.834Z",
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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 ],
 "excluded_from_feed": {
  "ads": 23,
  "service": 3,
  "ruleset_version": "3"
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 "standing": null,
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 81,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 39,
  "found_post_match": 42,
  "of_them_source_reported": 0,
  "live_count": 0,
  "date_count": 33,
  "span_from": "2024-08-31",
  "span_to": "2026-02-28",
  "line_text": "restored history: 81, of which pre-match archive 39",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League and Championship matches between 31 August 2024 and 28 February 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 81. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 39. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 42. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 79,
   "share": "0.4304"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 78,
    "roi": "6.0282",
    "ci_low": "-22.9679",
    "ci_high": "35.7641",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "n": 15,
    "roi": "29.9833",
    "ci_low": "-23.1393",
    "ci_high": "84.2273",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 58,
    "roi": "-5.2155",
    "ci_low": "-33.3707",
    "ci_high": "23.9828",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Premier League",
   "Championship"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 32 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 49 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged."
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
    "basis": "closing",
    "basis_words": "the closing market price of the same selection (restored history)",
    "basis_short": "Closing market price (restored)",
    "compared": 16,
    "above": 3,
    "above_share_percent": "18.8",
    "below": 2,
    "within": 11,
    "median_difference_percent": "1.3",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated",
    "sentence": "The author's stated price against the closing price of the same selection: median +1.3% over 16 picks. The price available to followers is the market price, shown separately."
   }
  ],
  "examples": [
   {
    "url": "/authors/jamie-griffith/picks/2/#pick-n-18c19e21c2152a2f40782664",
    "basis": "closing",
    "stated": "2.38",
    "market": "3.40",
    "difference_percent": "-30.1"
   },
   {
    "url": "/sources/racing-post/picks/2/#pick-n-aa200fcb4caf358d5392da9e",
    "basis": "closing",
    "stated": "2.50",
    "market": "2.20",
    "difference_percent": "13.6"
   }
  ],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "editorial",
  "entity_words": "Editorial source",
  "source": {
   "name": "racingpost.com",
   "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240913214422id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/premier-league-match-predictions-odds-tips-a7L939M3Olxd/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-09-28",
  "observed_to": "2026-10-02",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
  "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
  "restored": true,
  "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
  "headline_part": "archived",
  "settled_picks": 5,
  "matches": 5,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -3000,
  "staked_hundredths": 50000,
  "return_percent": "-6.00",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2024-09-14",
  "period_to": "2025-05-10",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 5 settled archived picks by Racing Post Football Tips from copies archived before kick-off, across 5 matches between 14 September 2024 and 10 May 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 2 of 5 settled archived picks. Of the 27 predictions we hold for Racing Post Football Tips, 13 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 14 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled archived picks",
    "value": "5",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "5",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−30 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "value": "−6.0%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": null
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "Most of this history was found after the matches. Of the 8 selections in this historical price series, 5 have a pre-match archive copy and 3 were first found after the match.",
   "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": null,
   "archived": {
    "part": "archived",
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
    "settled_picks": 5,
    "matches": 5,
    "match_dates": 4,
    "period_from": "2024-09-14",
    "period_to": "2025-05-10",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -3000,
    "low": {
     "date": "2024-09-14",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
     "after_picks": 1
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2025-05-03",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 17000,
     "after_picks": 3
    },
    "line_drawn": false,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2024-09-14",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-03-09",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 9000,
      "n": 2,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-05-03",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 17000,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-05-10",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -3000,
      "n": 5,
      "picks": 2
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record restored 5 settled archived picks by Racing Post Football Tips from copies archived before kick-off, across 5 matches between 14 September 2024 and 10 May 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 2 of 5 settled archived picks. Of the 27 predictions we hold for Racing Post Football Tips, 13 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 14 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/sources/racing-post/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "retro-1.1"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 27,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 0,
   "proven_predictions": 13,
   "proven_checked": 5,
   "proven_measured": 5,
   "proven_dates": 4,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 13,
     "checked": 5,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 5,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 5,
      "net_points_hundredths": -3000,
      "staked_hundredths": 50000,
      "return_percent": "-6.00",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2024-09-14",
      "period_to": "2025-05-10",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 5,
       "return_main_percent": "-6.00",
       "return_other_percent": "-1.00",
       "settled_excluding_void": 5,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -3000,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -500,
       "period_from": "2024-09-14",
       "period_to": "2025-05-10"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 5,
      "priced": 5
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 5,
      "won": 2,
      "won_percent": "40.0",
      "implied_percent": "45.8",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "55.6"
       },
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "34.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and both teams to score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "39.3"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and total goals",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "50.8"
       },
       {
        "market": "Win to nil",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "49.0"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 14,
     "checked": 6,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 3,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 3,
      "net_points_hundredths": 14750,
      "staked_hundredths": 30000,
      "return_percent": "49.17",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2024-09-14",
      "period_to": "2025-05-11",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 2,
       "return_main_percent": "123.75",
       "return_other_percent": "145.00",
       "settled_excluding_void": 2,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 24750,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 29000,
       "period_from": "2024-09-14",
       "period_to": "2025-05-11"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price, aggregator",
       "series_code": "retro_market_closing",
       "picks": 1,
       "return_main_percent": "122.50",
       "return_other_percent": "120.00",
       "settled_excluding_void": 1,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 12250,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 12000,
       "period_from": "2025-05-11",
       "period_to": "2025-05-11"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 6,
      "priced": 3
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 3,
      "won": 2,
      "won_percent": "66.7",
      "implied_percent": "47.4",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "52.9"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "44.9"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and total goals",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "44.4"
       }
      ]
     }
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-477feb0dfca9e0ed221d9946",
   "n-522ceabecdba63b60182f791",
   "n-6e547e8f4b73803085eb21bc",
   "n-74c444160b8a9f4fe879c479",
   "n-bc65f206203c4bd9fc2aedba"
  ],
  "interval_low": null,
  "interval_high": null,
  "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 14 September 2024 – 10 May 2025 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1",
  "record_from": "2024-09-14",
  "record_to": "2025-05-11"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-aa200fcb4caf358d5392da9e",
   "url": "/sources/racing-post/picks/2/#pick-n-aa200fcb4caf358d5392da9e",
   "match": "Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-05-11T13:15:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -12123.1,
   "market_code": "total",
   "author_said": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: under 2.5 at 2.5",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "0-2",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": 12250,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "2.5",
   "settled_price": "2.2250",
   "published_at": "2025-05-10T13:53:20.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:20:57.962Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-aa200fcb4caf358d5392da9e",
    "quote_text": "Under 2.5 goals in Tottenham vs Crystal Palace\n2pts 6-4 bet365, BoyleSports",
    "fragment_from": 1349,
    "fragment_to": 1424,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/saturday-premier-league-match-predictions-odds-and-football-betting-tips-ahlN23i9w4Qz/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": null,
     "authorship": "unknown",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "838343df8e2ecc90b81d29534ac0ce87f834ed583635e591809742062b2f6931",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": "2025-05-10T13:53:20.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:20:57.962Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:21:51.885Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
     "event_id": null,
     "display_name": "Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace",
     "competition_name": "Premier League",
     "starts_at": "2025-05-11T13:15:00.000Z",
     "url": null,
     "scoreline": "0-2"
    },
    "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
    "outcome_label": "under 2.5",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": "2.5",
     "our_snapshot": null,
     "our_snapshot_at": null,
     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": "2.2000",
     "closing_source": "aggregator closing price"
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "win",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": 12000,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "found_post_match",
    "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": "2025-05-10T13:53:20.000Z",
     "fragment_basis": "page",
     "source_page_at": "2025-05-10T13:53:20.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:20:57.962Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
    "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
    "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
     "choice": "under 2.5",
     "author_odds": "2.5",
     "market_key": "total",
     "choice_key": "under",
     "period": "match",
     "line": "2.5",
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: under 2.5 at 2.5"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "win",
     "scoreline": "0-2",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "in_words": "Won: the final score was Tottenham Hotspur 0-2 Crystal Palace."
    },
    "settlements": [
     {
      "operation_id": "8f35c475cbea512c167544f3aaf3aab3be5cfb7e8269b39423dd139f0a795aff",
      "series_key": "retro_author_price",
      "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
      "choice": "under 2.5",
      "decimal_odds": "2.5",
      "odds_role": "author_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "win",
      "result_words": "Won",
      "change_hundredths": 15000,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:21:51.866Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     },
     {
      "operation_id": "8bbb289949572a2761b214e7ae584b01a902e382ab16ac7c158352110d06da9d",
      "series_key": "retro_market_closing",
      "series_label": "Restored, at the closing market price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
      "choice": "under 2.5",
      "decimal_odds": "2.2000",
      "odds_role": "closing_odds",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "win",
      "result_words": "Won",
      "change_hundredths": 12000,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:21:51.885Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     },
     {
      "operation_id": "4e814551334f757cf4095430ceb8df9ed850e85aafbeaa7367cca1a998b0f2be",
      "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
      "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
      "choice": "under 2.5",
      "decimal_odds": "2.2250",
      "odds_role": "closing_odds",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "win",
      "result_words": "Won",
      "change_hundredths": 12250,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:21:51.900Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     }
    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Racing Post Sport Staff",
     "publisher": "racingpost.com",
     "forecaster": "Racing Post Sport Staff",
     "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/saturday-premier-league-match-predictions-odds-and-football-betting-tips-ahlN23i9w4Qz/",
     "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
     "verdict_by": null,
     "verdict_line": null
    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "under 2.5 (Over/Under 2.5 goals)"
   }
  },
  {
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   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-839f19959238870eb8ea61b9",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Goal to be scored after 72:59 in Fulham vs Everton\n2pts 5-6 bet365",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-02-06T18:35:06.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:20:04.384Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-b8b167b1e1d801d6d2890b72",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Second half to be the highest scoring in Crystal Palace vs Liverpool\n2pts 11-10 Betfair, Paddy Power, Hills",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-09-26T14:45:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T17:42:09.935Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-37dfecb1d7aaa00630436373",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals\n1pt 21-20 Coral, Hills, Ladbrokes",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-05-10T13:53:20.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:20:57.962Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-7786f4d2d8e972c74da1adb2",
   "url": "/sources/racing-post/picks/2/#pick-n-7786f4d2d8e972c74da1adb2",
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Over 2.5 goals & both teams to score in Wolves vs Brighton\n1pt 21-20 Hills",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-05-09T15:50:32.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T18:04:47.650Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": {
    "at": "2026-09-29T00:48:58.877Z",
    "field": "author price",
    "reason": "The author’s fractional price 21-20 was read as 11.05; as a decimal price it is 2.05.",
    "version": 2,
    "url": "/corrections/#c-e45bfd353720",
    "text": "Corrected on 29 September 2026: The author’s fractional price 21-20 was read as 11.05; as a decimal price it is 2.05."
   },
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-7786f4d2d8e972c74da1adb2",
    "quote_text": "Over 2.5 goals & both teams to score in Wolves vs Brighton\n1pt 21-20 Hills",
    "fragment_from": 1403,
    "fragment_to": 1477,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250509165054id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/saturday-premier-league-match-predictions-odds-and-football-betting-tips-aQ42t7K7z9fH/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": null,
     "authorship": "unknown",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "b587a4ba66db29ef309ede54395ff85eff6962d9f042509fc8b33a38fd844daf",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": "2025-05-09T15:50:32.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-28T18:04:47.650Z",
    "executed_at": null,
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "not_supported",
    "cause": "",
    "cause_code": "not_supported",
    "event": null,
    "market_label": null,
    "outcome_label": null,
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": null,
     "our_snapshot": null,
     "our_snapshot_at": null,
     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": null,
     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": null,
    "result": null,
    "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": null,
    "series_label": null,
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "restored_archive",
    "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": "2025-05-09T15:50:32.000Z",
     "fragment_basis": "page",
     "source_page_at": "2025-05-09T15:50:32.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-09-28T18:04:47.650Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
    "origin_detail": null,
    "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": null,
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": null,
     "scoreline": null,
     "data_status": "unknown",
     "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
    },
    "settlements": [],
    "corrections": [
     {
      "at": "2026-09-29T00:48:58.877Z",
      "field_name": "author price",
      "was": "11.05",
      "now": "2.05",
      "cause": "The author’s fractional price 21-20 was read as 11.05; as a decimal price it is 2.05."
     }
    ],
    "funnel_stage": "prediction",
    "authorship": null,
    "correction": {
     "at": "2026-09-29T00:48:58.877Z",
     "field": "author price",
     "reason": "The author’s fractional price 21-20 was read as 11.05; as a decimal price it is 2.05.",
     "version": 2,
     "url": "/corrections/#c-e45bfd353720",
     "text": "Corrected on 29 September 2026: The author’s fractional price 21-20 was read as 11.05; as a decimal price it is 2.05."
    },
    "choice_words": "a pick"
   }
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-1e45e58a63f283bab4c1d94a",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals in Fulham vs Crystal Palace\n1pt 13-10 general",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-02-21T15:29:08.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T18:13:09.558Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-c887515a752a7cc296ad9b0d",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Second half to be higher scoring\n3pts 21-20 Hills",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-31T14:50:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-01T00:57:36.578Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-74bd211d90014ea1a3fcd0cc",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Erling Haaland to score two or more goals for Manchester City vs West Ham\n1pt 5-2 Paddy Power",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-03T17:33:52.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:18:09.798Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "lead_time": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "threshold_hours": 2.0,
  "picks": 13,
  "before_kickoff": 0,
  "after_kickoff": 13,
  "at_least_2h": 0,
  "share_2h_plus": 0.0,
  "median_hours": null,
  "min_hours": null,
  "max_hours": null,
  "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off."
 },
 "baseline": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "rule": "recorded-line-1.0",
  "state": "none",
  "picks": 0,
  "settled_picks_all": 0,
  "excluded": {
   "market_without_favourite": 0,
   "no_recorded_line": 0,
   "favourite_not_settled": 0
  },
  "staked_hundredths": 0,
  "author_net_hundredths": 0,
  "favourite_net_hundredths": 0,
  "difference_hundredths": 0,
  "author_return_percent": null,
  "favourite_return_percent": null,
  "author_hit_rate": null,
  "favourite_hit_rate": null,
  "picked_favourite_share": null,
  "by_market": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out."
 },
 "pagination": {
  "per_page": 20,
  "total": 27,
  "pages": 3,
  "page_urls": [
   "/sources/racing-post/",
   "/sources/racing-post/picks/2/",
   "/sources/racing-post/picks/3/"
  ],
  "groups": {
   "settled": 11,
   "pending": 0,
   "excluded": 16
  },
  "continuation": "by_time",
  "page": 1,
  "first": 1,
  "last": 20,
  "author_url": "/sources/racing-post/",
  "current": false
 },
 "title_tag": "Racing Post Football Tipsters: Named Authors’ Prediction Records",
 "calculator": null,
 "source_info": {
  "code_name": "racing-post",
  "display_name": "Racing Post",
  "type_code": "media",
  "domains": [
   "racingpost.com"
  ],
  "owner": "Spotlight Sports Group",
  "check": {
   "when": "2026-10-11",
   "source_list": [
    {
     "url": "https://www.cityam.com/pe-group-in-talks-to-sell-racing-post-owner-for-up-to-500m/",
     "what": "«Spotlight Sports Group, the media entity that owns the Racing Post, is owned by Exponent Private Equity»; среди брендов Spotlight — Free Super Tips (по выдаче поиска)"
    },
    {
     "url": "https://www.exponentpe.com/our-portfolio/racing-post",
     "what": "портфель Exponent: Racing Post (по выдаче поиска)"
    }
   ]
  },
  "url": "/sources/racing-post/",
  "products": [
   {
    "code_name": "football-tips",
    "display_name": "Football tips (section feed)",
    "type_code": "feed",
    "url": "/sources/racing-post/",
    "entity_ref": "e-9a6750bc9c326207f3e3e471",
    "summary": {
     "statements": 216,
     "predictions": 27,
     "settled_picks": 5,
     "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
     "return_percent": -6.0,
     "headline_part": "archived",
     "period_from": "2026-09-28",
     "period_to": "2026-10-02"
    }
   }
  ],
  "author_list": [
   {
    "name_shown": "James Milton",
    "url": "/authors/james-milton/",
    "settled_picks": 119,
    "predictions": 536,
    "headline_part": "archived"
   },
   {
    "name_shown": "Aaron Ashley",
    "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/",
    "settled_picks": 103,
    "predictions": 424,
    "headline_part": "archived"
   },
   {
    "name_shown": "Dan Childs",
    "url": "/authors/dan-childs/",
    "settled_picks": 89,
    "predictions": 375,
    "headline_part": "archived"
   },
   {
    "name_shown": "Liam Flin",
    "url": "/authors/liam-flin/",
    "settled_picks": 57,
    "predictions": 196,
    "headline_part": "archived"
   },
   {
    "name_shown": "Jamie Griffith",
    "url": "/authors/jamie-griffith/",
    "settled_picks": 56,
    "predictions": 253,
    "headline_part": "archived"
   },
   {
    "name_shown": "Joe Casey",
    "url": "/authors/joe-casey/",
    "settled_picks": 42,
    "predictions": 276,
    "headline_part": "archived"
   },
   {
    "name_shown": "Jack Ogalbe",
    "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/",
    "settled_picks": 39,
    "predictions": 142,
    "headline_part": "archived"
   },
   {
    "name_shown": "Ian Wilkerson",
    "url": "/authors/ian-wilkerson/",
    "settled_picks": 33,
    "predictions": 127,
    "headline_part": "archived"
   },
   {
    "name_shown": "James Mason",
    "url": "/authors/james-mason/",
    "settled_picks": 14,
    "predictions": 34,
    "headline_part": "archived"
   },
   {
    "name_shown": "Steve Davies",
    "url": "/authors/steve-davies/",
    "settled_picks": 12,
    "predictions": 82,
    "headline_part": "archived"
   },
   {
    "name_shown": "Tom McGarry",
    "url": "/authors/tom-mcgarry/",
    "settled_picks": 9,
    "predictions": 31,
    "headline_part": "archived"
   },
   {
    "name_shown": "Tom Hill",
    "url": "/authors/tom-hill/",
    "settled_picks": 7,
    "predictions": 18,
    "headline_part": "archived"
   },
   {
    "name_shown": "Alex Wrigley",
    "url": "/authors/alex-wrigley/",
    "settled_picks": 5,
    "predictions": 13,
    "headline_part": "archived"
   },
   {
    "name_shown": "Patrick Madden",
    "url": "/authors/patrick-madden/",
    "settled_picks": 3,
    "predictions": 3,
    "headline_part": "archived"
   },
   {
    "name_shown": "Matthew Ireland",
    "url": "/authors/matthew-ireland/",
    "settled_picks": 1,
    "predictions": 3,
    "headline_part": "archived"
   },
   {
    "name_shown": "Joe Champion",
    "url": "/authors/joe-champion/",
    "settled_picks": 0,
    "predictions": 1,
    "headline_part": null
   }
  ],
  "authors_count": 16,
  "auto": false,
  "product": "football-tips",
  "product_page": false,
  "named_authors_basis": {
   "author_count": 12,
   "settled_count": 580,
   "date_count": 82,
   "required_authors": 3
  }
 },
 "data_revision": {
  "data_version": "2026-10-16.5",
  "updated": "2026-10-16",
  "current_release": "2026-11-07.2",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "price_rule": "reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
  "sample": {
   "settled_picks": 5,
   "matches": 5,
   "void": 0,
   "period_from": "2024-09-14",
   "period_to": "2025-05-10",
   "composition_hash": "8bf62d9d356217db33ef8c459f3150d768140adc130c95c7a84d195e97527a65"
  },
  "changes_url": "#changes",
  "corrections_url": "/corrections/"
 },
 "number_changes": [
  {
   "id": "zc-85af9b9b2867bc268e56",
   "at": "2026-10-16T17:26:36.835Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-16.5",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-16.4",
   "url": "/sources/racing-post/",
   "category": "data_corrected",
   "category_words": "Data corrected",
   "before": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-16.3",
    "return_percent": "2.70",
    "settled_picks": 32,
    "matches": 32,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "de8f2c1a40218423b3b6c7c653ae1f92dd0e49f1a35b8635f8a98c8931f6d9a7",
    "text": "+2.70% on 32 settled picks across 32 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-16.5",
    "return_percent": "-6.00",
    "settled_picks": 5,
    "matches": 5,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "8bf62d9d356217db33ef8c459f3150d768140adc130c95c7a84d195e97527a65",
    "text": "−30.00 points on 5 settled picks across 5 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Data corrected: 27 picks left the headline sample.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
    "added": 0,
    "removed": 27,
    "changed": 0
   },
   "correction_id": "i-d43d2382e125477a4d09"
  },
  {
   "id": "zc-70215903be1b9befcd80",
   "at": "2026-10-16T12:26:54.015Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-16.3",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-16.2",
   "url": "/sources/racing-post/",
   "category": "data_corrected",
   "category_words": "Data corrected",
   "before": {
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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    "composition_hash": "c759184adc2030adcb849949301daee918e6fb4135c5b749d8ca26b042d81bd0",
    "text": "+11.35% on 34 settled picks across 34 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "void": 0,
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    "text": "+2.70% on 32 settled picks across 32 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Data corrected: 2 picks left the headline sample.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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   },
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  },
  {
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   "data_version": "2026-10-15.8",
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   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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    "text": "+29.91% on 11 settled picks across 11 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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    "composition_hash": "c759184adc2030adcb849949301daee918e6fb4135c5b749d8ca26b042d81bd0",
    "text": "+11.35% on 34 settled picks across 34 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Added 23 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
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   },
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   "category": "method_changed",
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    "price_rule": "author's stated odds, restored",
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   },
   "reason": "The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, a historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first found after the match no longer enter the headline number. Was: author's stated odds, restored (60 settled picks). Now: historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (34 settled picks).",
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