James Milton: football tipster record — archive reconstruction

Record overview

• 33 recorded before kick-off · since 3 Oct 2026
• 151 from the pre-match archive · 2024–2026
• 77 Found after kick-off

Record details and history below

Where James Milton publishes

Identity checked on 11 October 2026 against public sources: racingpost.com.

Totals are kept per platform. Predictions from every platform are listed below, each marked with its platform.

Record card

To link to this record from your site or bio, copy the line below. It states only the facts of this record.

<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/authors/james-milton/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 735 predictions · last change 7 November 2026</a>

Recorded before kick-off: supporting evidence

Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.

How the market price is set

Recorded before kick-off, graded after the match

31 predictions recorded before kick-off. Right in 13 of 29.

Prices implied by market

By market: Match result 2 of 3 (2 W / 1 L) Small sample (3); Double chance 1 of 2 (1 W / 1 L) Small sample (2).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Archived before kick-off · 124 settled archived picks · −0.4%

Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.

339 predictions; 151 checked against the final score.

124 settled selections across 86 matches, 9 August 2024 – 11 May 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −0.4% (95.0% interval −21.5% to +21.5%).

Eligible prices were available for 124 of the 151 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 62 of 124 decided picks (50.0%); the prices of the same picks implied 48.8%.

By market: Match result 2 of 3 (2 W / 1 L) Small sample (3); Double chance 1 of 2 (1 W / 1 L) Small sample (2).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Score forecasts without a betting market price

1 score forecast is waiting for a final score.

Found after kick-off · 58 settled after-match picks · −18.5%

First Found after kick-off; the date is the one the source states.

246 predictions; 77 checked against the final score.

58 settled selections across 40 matches, 7 August 2024 – 19 May 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −18.5% (95.0% interval −45.3% to +10.0%).

Eligible prices were available for 58 of the 77 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 22 of 58 decided picks (37.9%); the prices of the same picks implied 46.2%.

By market: Match result 2 of 3 (2 W / 1 L) Small sample (3); Double chance 1 of 2 (1 W / 1 L) Small sample (2).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.

Record details and history

Record details

• Most recorded: Goals over/under · 40 matches

  Goals over/under 23/41 (40 matches); Bet-builder combos 10/32 (30 matches); Match result (1X2) 13/26 (25 matches); Goalscorer picks 9/22 (20 matches); Both teams to score 11/18 (18 matches); Double chance and draw no bet 10/14 (14 matches); Correct score 1/10 (10 matches); Player props 3/9 (8 matches)

  Most recorded bet type: the rule

• Exact scores · 1/10

  Exact scores: the rule

• Minority calls · 0/1

  Result calls on matches with at least 8 other tipsters and sources, where at least 60.0% of them named another outcome.

  Minority calls: the rule

• Longest price: correct at 3.75 · 22 Apr 2026

  AFC Bournemouth v Leeds United · Draw at 3.75 (archive closing price)

  Pre-match close: the last market price for the same selection before kick-off. Definition.

  Correct at a long price: the rule

• Draw calls · 3/12

  Draw calls: the rule

• Away calls · 4/10

  Away calls: the rule

• Non-favourite calls · 3/13

  Non-favourite calls: the rule

Each title is a fact about past picks, by published rules. How titles work

What kind of number is this?

Measured

Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; our pre-match market snapshot of each settled pick; the time of each pre-match web-archive copy.

Stated

The author’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.

Calculated

Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.

Unknown

Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published; who made the predictions whose attribution is under review.

The four data statuses

What this record covers

We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything James Milton has published.

Source we monitor

racingpost.com

Channels

website

Watched by us

28 September – 7 November 2026

Earlier entries

restored from archives, back to 7 August 2024

Without a match page

95 predictions

Attribution under review

6 predictions, kept out of this record’s totals

Stated price vs market

How the prices this author stated compare with an independent market price of the same selection. Calculated from the picks where both prices are known; a gap can come from market movement or from one bookmaker offering more than the market, so it describes the stated prices, not the reason for them.

Closing market price (restored) — the closing market price of the same selection (restored history). Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5.0% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way. The closing price is the final price before kick-off. The price when the pick was published is unknown for restored history, so this row shows the distance to where the market closed.

Largest gaps: 6.50 against 9.03 (−28.0%) · 7.50 against 6.00 (+25.0%)

Author's response

No author's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.

Respond or request a correction

Coverage and exclusions

One set of records: the author’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.

Statements

2,673

Predictions

735

Qualifying picks

335

Settled picks

235

Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.

Statements that are not predictions: 275 opinions and 1,662 not about a match.

How this return was calculated

Every settled pick in “Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)” is a stake of 100 points at the last pre-match archive price, a reconstruction at archived prices on picks archived before kick-off only. The net result (−51 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 124 settled archived picks; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (12,400 points), void picks excluded. Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.

Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.

Separate comparison window — last 90 days: +126.50 points on 5 live picks settled in this window · 5 matches · 18 October – 7 November 2026 (calculated, method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted

Changes to this record

The headline number above is (reconstruction method 1.1, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only). When it changes, the earlier figure stays here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.

Data corrected · 22 October 2026

Before

+3.0% on 140 settled picks across 92 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−0.4% on 124 settled picks across 86 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 16 picks left the headline sample.

Coverage extended · 22 October 2026

Before

−0.4% on 124 settled picks across 86 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

+3.0% on 140 settled picks across 92 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 16 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Coverage extended · 20 October 2026

Before

+0.4% on 123 settled picks across 85 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−0.4% on 124 settled picks across 86 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Data corrected · 19 October 2026

Before

−0.4% on 124 settled picks across 86 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

+0.4% on 123 settled picks across 85 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.

Data corrected · 19 October 2026

Before

+5.6% on 136 settled picks across 90 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−0.4% on 124 settled picks across 86 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 12 picks left the headline sample.

Data corrected · 18 October 2026

Before

+1.7% on 143 settled picks across 93 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

+5.6% on 136 settled picks across 90 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 7 picks left the headline sample.

Coverage extended · 18 October 2026

Before

+5.6% on 136 settled picks across 90 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

+1.7% on 143 settled picks across 93 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 7 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Data corrected · 16 October 2026

Before

+4.7% on 129 settled picks across 85 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

+5.6% on 136 settled picks across 90 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample; 8 picks added.

Data corrected · 16 October 2026

Before

+0.0% on 135 settled picks across 88 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

+4.7% on 129 settled picks across 85 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 6 picks left the headline sample.

Data corrected · 15 October 2026

Before

−1.6% on 139 settled picks across 89 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

+0.0% on 135 settled picks across 88 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 4 picks left the headline sample.

Data corrected · 14 October 2026

Before

−2.3% on 138 settled picks across 89 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−1.6% on 139 settled picks across 89 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: line sign (1 pick); 1 pick added.

Coverage extended · 13 October 2026

Before

−1.3% on 134 settled picks across 85 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−2.3% on 138 settled picks across 89 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 4 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Method changed · 9 October 2026

Before

−11.6% on 175 settled picks across 112 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−1.3% on 134 settled picks across 85 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first Found after kick-off no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (175 settled picks). Now: reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (134 settled picks).

Coverage extended · 9 October 2026

Before

−4.8% on 98 settled picks across 59 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−11.6% on 175 settled picks across 112 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 77 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Who this is

Last recorded by us

7 November 2026, the date of this page's data

Observed

28 September 2026 — 7 November 2026

Channels

website

Statements other than predictions (70 shown)

• “Spurs scored at least twice in 27 of their 38 league matches last term and a trip to Leicester looks an ideal opportunity for their forwards to hit the ground running in 2024-25.” — 2 October 2026, 01:53 BST · source
• “another entertaining victory for the Lilywhites could be on the cards.” — 2 October 2026, 01:53 BST · source
• “Flick eyes up a return to Munich for the Champions League final.” — 2 October 2026, 01:52 BST · source
• “Real, along with City, set a high standard.” — 2 October 2026, 01:52 BST · source
• “the extended format may hamper the chances of a surprise package triumphing” — 2 October 2026, 01:52 BST · source
• “The change of format is unlikely to upset the established order” — 2 October 2026, 01:52 BST · source
• “Unai Emery's men are 100-30 to make the top eight but they have been shaky in defence” — 2 October 2026, 01:52 BST · source
• “Simulations run by Football Meets Data suggest a tally of 15 points will be required” — 2 October 2026, 01:52 BST · source
• “A Champions League clash between Milan and Liverpool inevitably stirs up memories of the Miracle of Istanbul” — 2 October 2026, 01:52 BST · source
• “and the odds about the visitors scoring a penalty also appeal.” — 2 October 2026, 01:51 BST · source
• “Erik ten Hag was in bullish mood after Manchester United's 0-0 Premier League draw at Crystal Palace last week” — 2 October 2026, 01:50 BST · source
• “preference is for the club where Mourinho made his name as a manager.” — 2 October 2026, 01:50 BST · source

• Jamie Shackleton (knee) is out and fellow summer signings Kieffer Moore and Sam McCallum will be assessed.

  · Source

• First-choice goalkeeper Freddie Woodman is hoping to recover from illness

  · Source

• Bag up to £280 with the best Premier League betting offers and boosted odds this week

  · Source

• Kalvin Phillips has completed a loan move to Ipswich.

  · Source

• Pays out at 10-1 with Hills

  · Source

• 50/1 Man United To Wear Red NEW CUSTOMER OFFER

  · Source

• Man United v Fulham 4/5 NEW CUSTOMER OFFER

  · Source

• NEW CUSTOMER OFFER 50/1 Liverpool 1+ Shot on Target - AC Milan v Liverpool

  · Source

• Star man Christian Pulisic Top scorer Christian Pulisic Penalty taker Christian Pulisic

  · Source

• Key stat Seven of Milan's last eight Serie A matches have featured over 3.5 goals

  · Source

• Saturday's 4-0 home win over promoted Venezia got their campaign on track

  · Source

• Seven of Milan's last eight league matches have had at least four goals

  · Source

• Having named the same starting 11 in Liverpool's last three games, Slot will need to shuffle his pack

  · Source

• Arne Slot made the perfect start to life at Anfield, overseeing 2-0 wins over Ipswich and Brentford

  · Source

• Trendspotters may note that two of Milan's last five home matches in Serie A also ended 3-3

  · Source

• Milan 14-5 Liverpool 10-11 Draw 29-10

  · Source

• NEW CUSTOMER OFFER Freeze a winning score and win a leg of your acca early with AccaFreeze

  · Source

• Erling Haaland's hat-trick for Manchester City exposed West Ham's defensive frailties

  · Source

• Chelsea romped to a 6-2 win over Wolves at Molineux before last weekend's 1-0 victory at Bournemouth

  · Source

• they were thumped 5-0 at Stamford Bridge in May during Chelsea's strong finish to the season

  · Source

• The Hammers beat the Blues 3-1 at the London Stadium in the early weeks of 2023-24

  · Source

• Register for an account, choosing your username and password, and deposit a minimum of £5 using a card or Apple Pay

  · Source

• Signing up with Paddy Power is fast, secure and straightforward – and this guide will show you the simple steps to take to join Paddy Power and grab 40-1 on Manchester City or 100-1 on Arsenal winning this Sunday.

  · Source

• Star man Bukayo Saka Top scorer Kai Havertz Penalty taker Bukayo Saka Card magnet Kai Havertz Assist ace Bukayo Saka Set-piece aerial threat Gabriel Magalhaes

  · Source

• Star man Phil Foden Top scorer Erling Haaland Penalty taker Erling Haaland Card magnet Mateo Kovacic Assist ace Phil Foden Set-piece aerial threat Erling Haaland

  · Source

• Arsenal (4-3-3): Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Timber; Havertz, Partey, Rice; Saka, Jesus, Trossard

  · Source

• Man City (4-2-3-1): Ederson; Walker, Dias, Akanji, Gvardiol; Kovacic, Rodri; Savinho, Silva, Foden; Haaland

  · Source

• Declan Rice is available after a one-match domestic ban.

  · Source

• Captain Martin Odegaard remains sidelined along with Mikel Merino, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Oleksandr Zinchenko and Kieran Tierney.

  · Source

• Phil Foden could make his first start of the season but Nathan Ake and Oscar Bobb are injured.

  · Source

• The City star is set for a first league start of the season and he had four shots, two on target, in Wednesday's 45-minute substitute appearance against Inter

  · Source

• Only one goal was scored in last season's league meetings between the title rivals and Arsenal have kept four clean sheets in five games this term

  · Source

• Arsenal have kept nine clean sheets in their last ten Premier League away games

  · Source

• Arsenal's Leandro Trossard blew a great chance on the break in the dying minutes of last term's draw.

  · Source

• City are on a 13-game winning streak in the league but the last six visitors to the Etihad – Aston Villa, Luton, Wolves, West Ham, Ipswich and Brentford – have all found the net

  · Source

• Given Odegaard's absence, and the timing of this fixture so early in the season, Arteta is likely to take a pragmatic approach and the champions look too short to take maximum points against the best defence in the division.

  · Source

• Pep Guardiola's side have won four out of four despite the fact that key men Rodri and Phil Foden have played only 45 minutes apiece after their Euro 2024 exertions.

  · Source

• City, unbeaten in their last 47 home matches, have started their title defence in ominous form.

  · Source

• Declan Rice, suspended for the win at Tottenham, should add steel to the Arsenal midfield

  · Source

• Kevin De Bruyne, who tore the Gunners apart in a 4-1 home win in April 2023, is a doubtful starter this time.

  · Source

• Haaland was kept quiet by Arsenal centre-backs Gabriel and William Saliba in last season's meetings

  · Source

• City striker Erling Haaland, having scored nine goals in four league games this season, had only 14 touches against Inter.

  · Source

• City have had an extra day of rest after their own 0-0 draw at home to Inter.

  · Source

• David Raya's sensational double save from a penalty secured a goalless Champions League draw at Atalanta on Thursday

  · Source

• ground out a 1-0 derby victory at Tottenham last weekend thanks to Gabriel Magalhaes's thumping header from a corner.

  · Source

• They won 2-0 at Aston Villa, scoring twice in the final quarter of the game,

  · Source

• Arteta admitted on Friday that "we need a big performance to beat them,"

  · Source

• Mikel Arteta's men allowed the champions only two shots on target over the two games

  · Source

• the return fixture at the end of March produced a goalless draw.

  · Source

• Arsenal pinched a 1-0 home victory over City in October thanks to Gabriel Martinelli's deflected 86th-minute strike

  · Source

• Manchester City and Arsenal scored 187 goals between them in last season's Premier League

  · Source

• Probable teams Manchester United (4-2-3-1): Onana; Mazraoui, Maguire, Martinez, Dalot; Ugarte, Mainoo; Antony, Fernandes, Rashford; Zirkzee

  · Source

• Key stat Manchester United have lost ten of their last 26 home matches in all competitions

  · Source

• Injuries were a factor in United's lowly eighth-placed Premier League finish last season

  · Source

• Slavia finished above Roma in last season's Europa League group stage, winning five of their six games and scoring 17 goals.

  · Source

• Rangers are 11-1 to finish in the top eight but they face both English clubs in the league phase and Slavia Prague are more tempting outsiders in that market.

  · Source

• The Europa League schedule gives them a great chance of making a strong start as they host PAOK and Elfsborg either side of a trip to Latvia to take on Rigas.

  · Source

• But Fener were beaten 3-1 at home by Istanbul rivals Galatasaray last weekend and Gala have won all six of their Super Lig fixtures by an aggregate score of 20-5.

  · Source

The full list is in the JSON and CSV downloads of this page.

The same data, machine-readable

• Page data (JSON)
• Recorded picks (CSV)

From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.

Share cards of this record (2)

• Bankroll card — James Milton
• Said → happened — James Milton

For the author of this record (1)

• Your record on Forecast Record: James Milton

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Calculations for the displayed picks

Record definitions and related evidence

• Return over time
• Recorded picks and results
• Matches
• How this return was calculated
• Archived before kick-off — definition
• W
• L
• L
• W
• 37