Tom Hill: football tipster record — archive reconstruction

Where Tom Hill publishes

Published under this name on racingpost.com.

Totals are kept per platform. Predictions from every platform are listed below, each marked with its platform.

Record card

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<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/authors/tom-hill/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 24 predictions · last change 9 October 2026</a>

Archived before kick-off · 11 settled archived picks · −25.8%

Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.

14 predictions; 12 checked against the final score.

11 settled selections across 8 matches, 17 August 2024 – 22 February 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −25.8%.

Eligible prices were available for 11 of the 12 selections checked against the result.

Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 4 of 11 decided picks (36.4%); the prices of the same picks implied 43.7%.

By market: Over/under goals 0 of 4 (prices implied 50.9%); Match result 1 of 3 (prices implied 38.5%); Correct score 0 of 1 (prices implied 14.8%); Result and both teams to score 1 of 1 (prices implied 42.8%); Team goals 1 of 1 (prices implied 45.6%); Win to nil 1 of 1 (prices implied 58.0%).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Found after kick-off · 5 settled after-match picks · won 1 of 5

First Found after kick-off; the date is the one the source states.

10 predictions; 5 checked against the final score.

5 settled selections across 4 matches, 7 December 2024 – 30 December 2025.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −236 points.

Eligible prices were available for 5 of the 5 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 1 of 5 decided picks; the prices of the same picks implied 38.4%.

By market: Cards over/under 0 of 1 (prices implied 45.5%); Match result 0 of 1 (prices implied 47.6%); Over/under goals 1 of 1 (prices implied 37.9%); Result and both teams to score 0 of 1 (prices implied 38.5%); Result and total goals 0 of 1 (prices implied 22.7%).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.

What kind of number is this?

Measured

Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; the time of each pre-match web-archive copy.

Stated

The author’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.

Calculated

Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.

Unknown

Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published.

The four data statuses

What this record covers

We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything Tom Hill has published.

Source we monitor

racingpost.com

Channels

website

Watched by us

28 September – 14 October 2026

Earlier entries

restored from archives, back to 17 August 2024

Stated price vs market

How the prices this author stated compare with an independent market price of the same selection. Calculated from the picks where both prices are known; a gap can come from market movement or from one bookmaker offering more than the market, so it describes the stated prices, not the reason for them.

Closing market price (restored) — the closing market price of the same selection (restored history). Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5.0% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way. The closing price is the final price before kick-off. The price when the pick was published is unknown for restored history, so this row shows the distance to where the market closed.

Pre-match close: the last market price for the same selection before kick-off. Definition.

Largest gaps: 2.15 against 1.90 (+13.1%) · 2.70 against 2.90 (−6.9%)

Author's response

No author's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.

Respond or request a correction

Coverage and exclusions

One set of records: the author’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.

Statements

75

Predictions

24

Qualifying picks

17

Settled picks

17

Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.

Statements that are not predictions: 9 opinions and 42 not about a match.

How this return was calculated

Every settled pick in “Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)” is a stake of 100 points at the last pre-match archive price, a reconstruction at archived prices on picks archived before kick-off only. The net result (−283.50 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 11 settled archived picks; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (1,100 points), void picks excluded. Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.

Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.

Separate comparison window — last 90 days: the return appears from the first settled pick in this window (method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted

Changes to this record

The headline number above is (reconstruction method 1.1, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only). When it changes, the earlier figure stays here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.

Coverage extended · 15 October 2026

Before

−103.00 points on 7 settled picks across 4 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−25.8% on 11 settled picks across 8 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (11)

Added 4 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Method changed · 9 October 2026

Before

−375.50 points on 8 settled picks across 5 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−103.00 points on 7 settled picks across 4 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first Found after kick-off no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (8 settled picks). Now: reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (7 settled picks).

Coverage extended · 9 October 2026

Before

−509.00 points on 7 settled picks across 4 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−375.50 points on 8 settled picks across 5 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Who this is

Last recorded by us

14 October 2026, 24 days before this page's data date

Observed

28 September 2026 — 14 October 2026

Channels

website

Statements other than predictions (22 shown)

• “They have taken just one point from a possible 21 on the road and they could be up against it from the first whistle.” — 1 October 2026, 02:05 BST · source
• “The Bees should get some joy of their own in front of goal, having scored in 13 of their 15 league games, but they have yet to win away from home this season.” — 1 October 2026, 02:05 BST · source
• “At 6-5, Brighton look more than a fair price to end the year on a high.” — 29 December 2025, 16:00 GMT · source

• Chelsea vs Brentford predicted line-ups

  · Source

• Maresca's men have scored at least three goals in four consecutive games and they face a Brentford side who have kept only one clean sheet in the league all season.

  · Source

• Chelsea are unbeaten in nine outings in all competitions and seven in the Premier League and they have been racking up the goals domestically.

  · Source

• The Blues' 3-1 win over Astana in the Europa Conference League was further proof that manager Enzo Maresca is getting a tune out of his players after a bumpy start.

  · Source

• Vitaly Janelt is set to miss out and Kevin Schade and Caoimhin Kelleher are doubts.

  16 Aug 2025, 19:03 BST · Source

• Midfielder Nicolas Dominguez (knee) is Forest's only concern.

  16 Aug 2025, 19:03 BST · Source

• Nottingham Forest 11-10 Brentford 27-10 Draw 23-10

  16 Aug 2025, 19:03 BST · Source

• Pays 17-2 with bet365

  16 Aug 2025, 19:03 BST · Source

• Click for free bets and betting offers from the Racing Post

  21 Feb 2026, 16:50 GMT · Source

• Sign up with Paddy Power to bet on Sunderland vs Fulham in the Premier League.

  21 Feb 2026, 16:50 GMT · Source

• Pays out at 6-1 with bet365

  21 Feb 2026, 16:50 GMT · Source

• Danny Welbeck and Jan Paul van Hecke returned from injury at the weekend and could start.

  29 Dec 2025, 16:00 GMT · Source

• Niclas Fullkrug and Lukasz Fabianski remain sidelined while El Hadji Malick Diouf and Aaron Wan

  29 Dec 2025, 16:00 GMT · Source

• Pays out at 5-1 with bet365

  29 Dec 2025, 16:00 GMT · Source

• Pays out at 9-2 with bet365

  30 Aug 2025, 14:01 BST · Source

• Josko Gvardiol, Savinho, Mateo Kovacic and Kalvin Phillips are all sidelined.

  30 Aug 2025, 14:01 BST · Source

• Adam Webster, Julio Enciso and Solly March are still sidelined.

  30 Aug 2025, 14:01 BST · Source

• Georginio Rutter is not guaranteed to be fit against City

  30 Aug 2025, 14:01 BST · Source

• 50/1 Man City To Win OR Draw vs Liverpool

  30 Aug 2025, 14:01 BST · Source

The full list is in the JSON and CSV downloads of this page.

The same data, machine-readable

• Page data (JSON)
• Recorded picks (CSV)

From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.

Share cards of this record (2)

• Bankroll card — Tom Hill
• Said → happened — Tom Hill

For the author of this record (1)

• Your record on Forecast Record: Tom Hill

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Calculations for the displayed picks

Record definitions and related evidence

• Return over time
• Recorded picks and results
• Matches
• How this return was calculated
• Archived before kick-off — definition