Ian Wilkerson: football tipster record — archive reconstruction

Record overview

• 2 recorded before kick-off · since 31 Oct 2026
• 40 from the pre-match archive · 2024–2026
• 34 Found after kick-off

Record details and history below

Where Ian Wilkerson publishes

Identity checked on 11 October 2026 against public sources: racingpost.com.

Totals are kept per platform. Predictions from every platform are listed below, each marked with its platform.

Record card

To link to this record from your site or bio, copy the line below. It states only the facts of this record.

<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/authors/ian-wilkerson/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 135 predictions · last change 30 October 2026</a>

Recorded before kick-off: supporting evidence

Recorded before kick-off, graded after the match

2 predictions recorded before kick-off. Right in 1 of 2.

Recorded before kick-off: saved by us from the source before the match started, with the time we saved it. Definition.

Archived before kick-off · 37 settled archived picks · −8.0%

Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.

72 predictions; 40 checked against the final score.

37 settled selections across 31 matches, 1 September 2024 – 27 April 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −8.0% (95.0% interval −40.5% to +23.1%).

Eligible prices were available for 37 of the 40 selections checked against the result.

Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 18 of 37 decided picks (48.6%); the prices of the same picks implied 46.9%.

By market: Over/under goals 7 of 12 (prices implied 54.5%); Match result 5 of 10 (prices implied 43.1%); Both teams to score 1 of 3 (prices implied 50.7%); Result and both teams to score 0 of 3 (prices implied 35.5%); Team goals 3 of 3 (prices implied 54.7%); Other markets 2 of 6 (prices implied 38.3%).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Found after kick-off · 28 settled after-match picks · −24.6%

First Found after kick-off; the date is the one the source states.

61 predictions; 35 checked against the final score.

28 settled selections across 27 matches, 31 August 2024 – 3 May 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −24.6% (95.0% interval −61.9% to +16.1%).

Eligible prices were available for 28 of the 35 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 10 of 28 decided picks (35.7%); the prices of the same picks implied 42.9%.

By market: Match result 2 of 10 (prices implied 43.9%); Result and both teams to score 2 of 5 (prices implied 35.3%); Over/under goals 2 of 4 (prices implied 45.9%); Result and total goals 1 of 3 (prices implied 42.7%); Both teams to score 1 of 2 (prices implied 58.8%); Other markets 2 of 4 (prices implied 39.1%).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.

Record details and history

Record details

• Most recorded: Match result (1X2) · 12 matches

  Match result (1X2) 6/12 (12 matches); Goals over/under 7/12 (11 matches); Bet-builder combos 0/5 (5 matches); Team goals and win to nil 4/6 (5 matches); Both teams to score 1/3 (3 matches); Corners and cards 1/2 (2 matches); Correct score 0/1 (1 match); Double chance and draw no bet 0/1 (1 match)

  Most recorded bet type: the rule

• Exact scores · 0/1

  Exact scores: the rule

• Minority calls · 0/1

  Result calls on matches with at least 8 other tipsters and sources, where at least 60.0% of them named another outcome.

  Minority calls: the rule

• Longest price: correct at 2.07 · 7 Nov 2024

  Galatasaray v Tottenham Hotspur · Home win at 2.07 (archive closing price)

  Pre-match close: the last market price for the same selection before kick-off. Definition.

  Correct at a long price: the rule

Each title is a fact about past picks, by published rules. How titles work

What kind of number is this?

Measured

Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; the time of each pre-match web-archive copy.

Stated

The author’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.

Calculated

Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.

Unknown

Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published.

The four data statuses

What this record covers

We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything Ian Wilkerson has published.

Source we monitor

racingpost.com

Channels

website

Watched by us

28 September – 30 October 2026

Earlier entries

restored from archives, back to 31 August 2024

Stated price vs market

How the prices this author stated compare with an independent market price of the same selection. Calculated from the picks where both prices are known; a gap can come from market movement or from one bookmaker offering more than the market, so it describes the stated prices, not the reason for them.

Closing market price (restored) — the closing market price of the same selection (restored history). Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5.0% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way. The closing price is the final price before kick-off. The price when the pick was published is unknown for restored history, so this row shows the distance to where the market closed.

Largest gaps: 3.25 against 2.75 (+18.2%) · 2.05 against 1.86 (+10.3%)

Author's response

No author's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.

Respond or request a correction

Coverage and exclusions

One set of records: the author’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.

Statements

387

Predictions

135

Qualifying picks

92

Settled picks

75

Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.

Statements that are not predictions: 33 opinions and 218 not about a match.

How this return was calculated

Every settled pick in “Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)” is a stake of 100 points at the last pre-match archive price, a reconstruction at archived prices on picks archived before kick-off only. The net result (−296.50 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 37 settled archived picks; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (3,700 points), void picks excluded. Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.

Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.

Separate comparison window — last 90 days: the return appears from the first settled pick in this window (method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted

Changes to this record

The headline number above is (reconstruction method 1.1, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only). When it changes, the earlier figure stays here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.

Data corrected · 3 November 2026

Before

−7.0% on 38 settled picks across 32 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−8.0% on 37 settled picks across 31 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.

Data corrected · 22 October 2026

Before

−0.2% on 42 settled picks across 36 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−7.0% on 38 settled picks across 32 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 4 picks left the headline sample.

Coverage extended · 22 October 2026

Before

−7.0% on 38 settled picks across 32 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−0.2% on 42 settled picks across 36 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 4 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Data corrected · 19 October 2026

Before

−2.5% on 43 settled picks across 37 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−7.0% on 38 settled picks across 32 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 5 picks left the headline sample.

Coverage extended · 16 October 2026

Before

+9.9% on 32 settled picks across 26 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−2.5% on 43 settled picks across 37 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 11 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Data corrected · 15 October 2026

Before

+6.6% on 33 settled picks across 27 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

+9.9% on 32 settled picks across 26 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.

Data corrected · 14 October 2026

Before

+2.4% on 31 settled picks across 26 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

+6.6% on 33 settled picks across 27 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: line sign (2 picks); 2 picks added.

Coverage extended · 13 October 2026

Before

−4.3% on 27 settled picks across 22 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (27)

After

+2.4% on 31 settled picks across 26 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 4 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Method changed · 9 October 2026

Before

−19.8% on 39 settled picks across 34 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−4.3% on 27 settled picks across 22 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (27)

The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first Found after kick-off no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (39 settled picks). Now: reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (27 settled picks).

Coverage extended · 9 October 2026

Before

+5.3% on 24 settled picks across 20 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (24)

After

−19.8% on 39 settled picks across 34 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 15 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Who this is

Last recorded by us

30 October 2026, 8 days before this page's data date

Observed

28 September 2026 — 30 October 2026

Channels

website

Statements other than predictions (42 shown)

• “A draw would be a good result and as this fixture tends to feature tight matches, it would not” — 2 October 2026, 01:53 BST · source
• “Cottage clash could be full of goals” — 1 October 2026, 02:13 BST · source
• “the signs are that it could be a tight match against a visiting side who are also enjoying the tonic of recent victories” — 1 October 2026, 02:11 BST · source
• “despite the fact that Villa haven't won in eight and with it difficult to place much faith in either side” — 1 October 2026, 02:08 BST · source
• “which would encourage punters to bank on another high-scoring affair.” — 16 April 2025, 16:46 BST · source
• “It would therefore represent a leap of faith to back the Red Devils at odds-on to beat Lyon” — 16 April 2025, 16:46 BST · source
• “she should be able to find the net again at the Emirates” — 1 October 2026, 01:41 BST · source
• “while they should win in Sweden, a clean sheet may elude them once more” — 1 October 2026, 01:41 BST · source
• “they will be mindful that they may have to scrap for a Champions League win against Swedish side Hammarby” — 1 October 2026, 01:41 BST · source

• Imran Louza and Kevin Keben have been ruled out.

  · Source

• Probable teams Ipswich (4-2-3-1): Muric; Tuanzebe, O'Shea, Greaves, Davis; Morsy, Phillips;

  · Source

• Key stat Aston Villa have scored at least twice in six of their seven matches this season

  · Source

• Match prediction & best bet Chelsea-Chelsea double result 1pt 5-4 bet365

  · Source

• Pays out at 6-1 with Paddy Power

  · Source

• Igor Thiago, Rico Henry, Josh Dasilva, Gustavo Nunes and Aaron Hickey are all out but hopes are high that Kristoffer Ajer will be available after an ankle injury.

  · Source

• Timothy Castagne is set to return from a thigh injury and Joachim Anderson is available after a ban.

  · Source

• Fulham 21-20 Brentford 5-2 Draw 14-5

  · Source

• Place any bet on Fulham vs Brentford with Sky Bet and claim £40 in free football bets.

  · Source

• James Ward-Prowse is available after missing last week's 3-0 win over his parent club West Ham.

  · Source

• Pays out at 11-1 with bet365

  · Source

• Place a £5 bet on Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle with Ladbrokes and claim £25 in free football bets.

  · Source

• Sheffield United (4-4-1-1): Cooper; Gilchrist, Souttar, Ahmedhodzic, Burrow; Rak-Sakyi, Souza, Arblaster

  · Source

• Nathaniel Chalobah and Michael Ihieke have returned to training but are unlikely to be involved

  · Source

• Kieffer Moore and Rhian Brewster are struggling but Oliver Arblaster and Vinicius Souza are expected

  · Source

• The Blades have not conceded in their last five Championship home games

  · Source

• Wednesday were boosted by a 2-0 home win over Norwich but that came after a 6-2 home humbling by

  · Source

• Chris Wilder's side were cannon fodder for the big boys last term but they have conceded just two

  · Source

• Sheffield United 5-6 with Sky Bet

  · Source

• Place any bet on Sheffield United vs Sheffield Wednesday with Sky Bet and claim £40 in free football

  · Source

• Amadou Onana could come into the squad after an ankle injury, but Robin Olsen is set to start in goal

  · Source

• Here are the latest odds ahead of Aston Villa vs Brentford in the Premier League on Wednesday December 4

  · Source

• Pays out at 15-1 with bet365

  16 Apr 2025, 16:46 BST · Source

• Free Bets next race 06:00 Sha Tin

  · Source

• Five of the last six meetings have featured fewer than three goals

  · Source

• Daniel Jebbison could be involved after joining on loan from Bournemouth but Imran Louza and Kevin Keben have been ruled out.

  · Source

• The Blades will be without Femi Seriki and Jamie Shackleton

  · Source

• Tottenham boosted their own chances as they recovered to beat Aston Villa 4-1 in yesterday’s earlier kick-off.

  · Source

• Yesterday’s stalemate at Old Trafford, in which Bruno Fernandes scored from the spot before a Moises Caicedo equaliser

  · Source

• Champions City remain 6-4 favourites despite their 2-1 loss at Bournemouth

  · Source

• Chelsea missed the opportunity to put themselves firmly in the Premier League title race yesterday when they settled for a 1-1 draw at Manchester United.

  · Source

• They are 5-4 from 11-8 to retain their title, while Liverpool can be backed at 5-2 as they leapfrogged

  · Source

• The Gunners have been pushed out to 11-4 from 2-1 for the title by bet365 as a key opportunity

  · Source

The full list is in the JSON and CSV downloads of this page.

The same data, machine-readable

• Page data (JSON)
• Recorded picks (CSV)

From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.

Share cards of this record (2)

• Bankroll card — Ian Wilkerson
• Said → happened — Ian Wilkerson

For the author of this record (1)

• Your record on Forecast Record: Ian Wilkerson

Check us

• How we count
• Right of reply and complaints
• What we collect
• Corrections log
• Data and API

Calculations for the displayed picks

Record definitions and related evidence

• Return over time
• Recorded picks and results
• Matches
• How this return was calculated
• Corrected on 14 October 2026 : Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and
• Corrected on 29 September 2026 : The author’s fractional price 20-21 was read as 5; as a decimal price it is 1.95.
• 7