Juan Pablo Aravena: football tipster record

Where Juan Pablo Aravena publishes

Published under this name on sportsbettingdime.com.

Record card

To link to this record from your site or bio, copy the line below. It states only the facts of this record.

<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/authors/juan-pablo-aravena/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 51 predictions · last change 4 November 2026</a>

Recorded before kick-off: supporting evidence

Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.

How the market price is set

Recorded before kick-off, graded after the match

19 predictions recorded before kick-off. Right in 14 of 19.

Prices implied by market

By market: Asian handicap 1 of 2 (1 W / 1 L, average odds 1.74) Small sample (2); Over/under goals 1 of 2 (1 W / 1 L, average odds 1.75) Small sample (2); Player to score 0 of 2 (0 W / 2 L, average odds 3.30) Small sample (2).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Score forecasts without a betting market price

Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to this score forecast.

The score forecast did not name the exact score.

The result implied by the named score was right in 1 of 1 match; the market favourite was right in 1 of the same match.

The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.

The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).

Found after kick-off · 5 settled after-match picks · won 2 of 5

First Found after kick-off; the date is the one the source states.

7 predictions; 5 checked against the final score.

5 settled selections across 2 matches, 18–20 September 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −26 points.

Eligible prices were available for 5 of the 5 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 2 of 5 decided picks; the prices of the same picks implied 42.9%.

By market: Asian handicap 1 of 2 (1 W / 1 L, average odds 1.74) Small sample (2); Over/under goals 1 of 2 (1 W / 1 L, average odds 1.75) Small sample (2); Player to score 0 of 2 (0 W / 2 L, average odds 3.30) Small sample (2).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.

What kind of number is this?

Measured

Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; our pre-match market snapshot of each settled pick.

Stated

The author’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.

Calculated

Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.

Unknown

Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published.

The four data statuses

What this record covers

We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything Juan Pablo Aravena has published.

Source we monitor

sportsbettingdime.com

Channels

website

Watched by us

29 September – 4 November 2026

Earlier entries

restored from archives, back to 18 September 2026

Without a match page

15 predictions

Stated price vs market

How the prices this author stated compare with an independent market price of the same selection. Calculated from the picks where both prices are known; a gap can come from market movement or from one bookmaker offering more than the market, so it describes the stated prices, not the reason for them.

Our market price when we first recorded the pick — our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off); Closing market price (restored) — the closing market price of the same selection (restored history). Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5.0% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way. The closing price is the final price before kick-off. The price when the pick was published is unknown for restored history, so this row shows the distance to where the market closed.

Pre-match close: the last market price for the same selection before kick-off. Definition.

Largest gaps: 6.50 against 4.50 (+44.4%) · 2.27 against 1.74 (+30.4%) · 1.64 against 1.95 (−16.0%) · 2.94 against 2.55 (+15.3%)

Author's response

No author's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.

Respond or request a correction

Coverage and exclusions

One set of records: the author’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.

Statements

112

Predictions

51

Qualifying picks

16

Settled picks

13

Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.

Statements that are not predictions: 4 opinions and 56 not about a match.

How this return was calculated

Every settled pick in “Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price” is a stake of 100 points at our recorded market price, a pre-match snapshot of the same selection. The net result (−273.42 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 6 settled live picks; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (600 points), void picks excluded. Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.

Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.

Separate comparison window — last 90 days: −273.42 points on 6 live picks settled in this window · 4 matches · 10 October – 4 November 2026 (calculated, method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted

Changes to this record

Earlier figures stay here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.

New results · 5 November 2026

Before

−173.42 points on 5 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

After

−273.42 points on 6 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous record update.

Coverage extended · 4 November 2026

Before

+26.58 points on 3 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

After

−173.42 points on 5 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Coverage extended · 23 October 2026

Before

−25.50 points on 2 settled picks across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

After

+26.58 points on 3 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

New results · 10 October 2026

Before

no published headline number

After

−25.50 points on 2 settled picks across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

First headline number for this record: 2 settled picks in the series “independent odds snapshot”.

Who this is

Last recorded by us

4 November 2026, 3 days before this page's data date

Observed

29 September 2026 — 4 November 2026

Channels

website

Statements other than predictions (38 shown)

• “offensive fireworks are heavily anticipated” — 20 October 2026, 15:00 BST · source
• “I am actively fading the inflated scoring market in my Bayern Munich vs Leipzig prediction” — 17 October 2026, 12:00 BST · source
• “While this head-to-head history looks dominant on paper, bettors must contextualize the current form.” — 10 October 2026, 03:00 BST · source
• “Despite playing on Spanish soil, Bournemouth enters as a rare road favorite.” — 17 September 2026, 17:00 BST · source

• Odds in table represent consensus sportsbook lines as of November 4, 8:45 AM ET.

  4 Nov 2026, 15:11 GMT · Source

• City will be without Antoine Semenyo.

  4 Nov 2026, 15:11 GMT · Source

• Marc Guiu and Assan Ouedraogo are missing, while Maxime Esteve is listed as doubtful.

  4 Nov 2026, 15:11 GMT · Source

• Odds in table are consensus lines from sportsbooks on November 4.

  4 Nov 2026, 13:18 GMT · Source

• Liverpool will be missing Jeremie Frimpong due to injury, while Fenerbahce lists Nathan Ake as doubtful

  4 Nov 2026, 13:18 GMT · Source

• Losing a talismanic striker like Moreno forces forwards like Ferran Torres to shoulder a heavier offensive burden

  3 Nov 2026, 17:00 GMT · Source

• Despite their staggering offensive production, the Parisians will travel to Spain without elite wingers Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Ousmane Dembele.

  3 Nov 2026, 17:00 GMT · Source

• Tottenham faces a harsher reality: Xavi Simons, Mykhailo Mudryk, and Sávio are out due to injuries

  24 Oct 2026, 14:15 BST · Source

• Chelsea is missing Reece James, who is unavailable due to a knee injury.

  24 Oct 2026, 14:15 BST · Source

• they will be without injured defender William Saliba

  21 Oct 2026, 15:05 BST · Source

• Jamal Musiala and Michael Olise are both missing due to injury, and Manuel Neuer is listed as doubtful.

  21 Oct 2026, 15:05 BST · Source

• Dynamic fullback Nuno Mendes is officially ruled out, and veteran leader Marquinhos is listed

  20 Oct 2026, 15:00 BST · Source

• The confirmed absences of Jules Kounde, Andreas Christensen, and Eric Garcia leave their backline

  20 Oct 2026, 15:00 BST · Source

• Ranking first overall with 5.0 goals per game, their unrivaled finishing ability gives them the

  20 Oct 2026, 15:00 BST · Source

• star defenders Jules Kounde and Nuno Mendes will miss their first games after suffering fresh injuries

  20 Oct 2026, 15:00 BST · Source

• The unfortunate absence of Jamal Musiala strictly limits the hosts’ central midfield today

  17 Oct 2026, 12:00 BST · Source

• Spread Pick: Leipzig [telefon-vyrezan] via Kalshi)

  17 Oct 2026, 12:00 BST · Source

• United did beat Atletico 2-1 in a July friendly. Worth a mention, not a reason to bet against the current evidence.

  13 Oct 2026, 14:30 BST · Source

• Missing William Saliba removes an elite foundational piece from their backline

  10 Oct 2026, 03:00 BST · Source

• Review Arsenal vs Leeds injuries and market movement to assess the key trends shaping this fixture

  10 Oct 2026, 03:00 BST · Source

• The post Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth Picks, Predictions & Odds appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

  17 Sep 2026, 17:00 BST · Source

• I am evaluating elite talent on both sides, including Real … Continued

  17 Sep 2026, 17:00 BST · Source

• This matchup provides a fascinating tactical puzzle.

  17 Sep 2026, 17:00 BST · Source

• Sepp Van den Berg (Status: Missing, Injured)

  18 Sep 2026, 16:30 BST · Source

• Josh Da Silva (Status: Missing, Injured)

  18 Sep 2026, 16:30 BST · Source

• Nathan Collins (Status: Missing, Injured)

  18 Sep 2026, 16:30 BST · Source

• Mathias Jensen (Status: Missing, Injured)

  18 Sep 2026, 16:30 BST · Source

• Moises Caicedo (Status: Doubtful, Injured)

  18 Sep 2026, 16:30 BST · Source

• Jordan Henderson (Status: Missing, Injured)

  18 Sep 2026, 16:30 BST · Source

• Joao Pedro (Status: Missing, Injured)

  18 Sep 2026, 16:30 BST · Source

• Brentford vs Chelsea Injury Report

  18 Sep 2026, 16:30 BST · Source

• Statistic (Per Game) Chelsea Brentford Points 1.75 (6th) 1.50 (7th)

  18 Sep 2026, 16:30 BST · Source

• Brentford vs Chelsea Team Statistics

  18 Sep 2026, 16:30 BST · Source

• Statistic Brentford Chelsea All-Time Wins (Last 4) 0 2 Draws 2 2 Total Goals 3 6

  18 Sep 2026, 16:30 BST · Source

The full list is in the JSON and CSV downloads of this page.

The same data, machine-readable

• Page data (JSON)
• Recorded picks (CSV)

From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.

Share cards of this record (4)

• Bankroll card — Juan Pablo Aravena
• A month following Juan Pablo Aravena
• Said → happened — Juan Pablo Aravena
• Turning point — Juan Pablo Aravena

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Calculations for the displayed picks

Record definitions and related evidence

• Coverage and exclusions
• Matches
• Recorded picks and results
• How this return was calculated
• Recorded before kick-off — definition