{
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 "url": "/authors/james-milton/",
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 "language": "en",
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 "heading": "James Milton: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "124 settled picks by James Milton archived before kick-off across 86 matches, 9 Aug 2024 – 11 May 2026: −0.4% reconstructed at archived prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record restored 124 settled archived picks by James Milton from copies archived before kick-off, across 86 matches between 9 August 2024 and 11 May 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned −0.4% on the total staked. Live record so far: won 3 of 5 settled live picks at our recorded market price. Of the 735 predictions we hold for James Milton, 634 are linked to matches: 49 were recorded by us before kick-off, 339 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 246 first found after the match; 6 are excluded while the attribution is under review. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "key_number": "−0.4%",
  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
  "brand": "Forecast Record"
 },
 "indexable": false,
 "noindex_reason": "outside_core",
 "indexing_threshold": {
  "settled_count": 129,
  "date_count": 102,
  "required_settled": 10,
  "required_dates": 2,
  "live_count": 0,
  "restored_count": 220,
  "of_them_archived": 144
 },
 "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z",
 "content_hash": null,
 "meaning_hash": "905b06c4220077b44cd3276b4653a059973354bbcec65bd4183d04c60d1c8b0a",
 "dependency_group": "author:e-8568cb3a3871e8164f370e4e",
 "release_id": "20261107-195223",
 "markup": [
  {
   "type_code": "WebPage",
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  {
   "type_code": "Organization",
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  },
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   "allowed": true,
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 ],
 "exports": [
  {
   "type_code": "json",
   "url": "/authors/james-milton/index.json",
   "bytes": null
  },
  {
   "type_code": "csv",
   "url": "/authors/james-milton/picks.csv",
   "bytes": null
  }
 ],
 "modules": {
  "affiliate": true,
  "api": true,
  "compare_yourself": false
 },
 "affiliate_block": {
  "container": true,
  "request_url": "/partnery/moi",
  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
  "page_category": "author"
 },
 "restrictions": {
  "name_withdrawn": false,
  "tracker_number": null,
  "withdrawn_quotes": [],
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  "suspended_records": [],
  "withdrawal_log_number": 0
 },
 "page_links": {
  "methodology": "/methodology/",
  "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/",
  "source_coverage": "/coverage/",
  "corrections_log": "/corrections/",
  "api": "/api/",
  "claim": "/claim/"
 },
 "entity": {
  "id": "e-8568cb3a3871e8164f370e4e",
  "public_name": "James Milton",
  "tracker_number": 1524,
  "status": "active",
  "inactive_since": null,
  "verified_creator": false,
  "observation_period": {
   "since": "2026-09-28",
   "until": "2026-11-07"
  },
  "platform_list": [
   {
    "medium": "website",
    "handle": null,
    "url": null,
    "link_confirmed": false,
    "show": true
   }
  ],
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 },
 "headline_number": {
  "metric": {
   "metric_id": "p-e-8568cb3a3871e8164f370e4e-roi-market-price-90d-z99",
   "code_name": "roi_market_price",
   "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot",
   "window_kind": "90d",
   "window_from": "2026-08-09",
   "window_to": "2026-11-07",
   "amount": "25.3000",
   "unit": "percent",
   "data_status": "calculated",
   "cause": null,
   "n_bets": 5,
   "n_events": 5,
   "n_void": 0,
   "ci_low": null,
   "ci_high": null,
   "ci_method": "not_estimated",
   "price_source": "market_price",
   "coverage_percent": null,
   "breakdown": [],
   "methodology_version": "2.2",
   "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
   "enough_for_ranking": false,
   "series_key": "market_price",
   "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
   "series_uid": null
  },
  "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 5 settled picks across 5 matches",
  "average_odds": null,
  "odds_from_author": null,
  "odds_from_snapshot": null
 },
 "metrics": [],
 "history": [],
 "simulation": {
  "series_key": null,
  "series_label": "No level stake placed",
  "bankroll_hundredths": 1000000,
  "reserve_hundredths": 0,
  "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000,
  "initial_hundredths": 1000000,
  "stake_hundredths": 10000,
  "top_up_count": 0,
  "profit_hundredths": 0,
  "rewards_off": null,
  "data_points": [],
  "top_ups": [],
  "rule": "Every tracked author starts with 10,000 points and stakes 100 per qualifying pick. This author has 0 settled bets, so the bankroll stands at its starting value."
 },
 "simulations": [],
 "completeness": {
  "detected": 2673,
  "recognised": 735,
  "accepted": 374,
  "executed": 335,
  "calculated": 235,
  "gaps": [
   {
    "cause": "not_supported",
    "figure": 181
   },
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    "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages",
    "figure": 131
   },
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    "cause": "not_checked",
    "figure": 37
   },
   {
    "cause": "National-team matches",
    "figure": 29
   },
   {
    "cause": "other reading",
    "figure": 21
   },
   {
    "cause": "disputed_reading",
    "figure": 1
   }
  ]
 },
 "record_counts": {
  "dictionary_version": "1",
  "statements": 2673,
  "of_them_restored": 2120,
  "not_predictions": {
   "opinions": 275,
   "not_about_a_match": 1662,
   "unclassified": 0
  },
  "predictions": 735,
  "predictions_restored": 585,
  "matches": 32,
  "admitted": 374,
  "qualifying_picks": 335,
  "qualifying_picks_restored": 321,
  "settled_picks": 235,
  "settled_picks_restored": 228,
  "series_list": [
   {
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    "matches": 5,
    "operations_settled": 5,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
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    ],
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   },
   {
    "code_name": "author_price",
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    "qualifying_picks": 14,
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    "void": 0,
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    "matches": 6,
    "operations_settled": 7,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
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    ],
    "methodologies": [
     "2.2"
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    "display_name": "At the author's stated price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
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    "qualifying_picks": 44,
    "settled_picks": 39,
    "void": 0,
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    "matches": 31,
    "operations_settled": 39,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
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    ],
    "methodologies": [
     "retro-1.0"
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    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "derived": false,
    "is_restored": true,
    "qualifying_picks": 215,
    "settled_picks": 138,
    "void": 0,
    "pending_picks": 77,
    "matches": 118,
    "operations_settled": 138,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
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    ],
    "methodologies": [
     "retro-1.0"
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    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "derived": false,
    "is_restored": true,
    "qualifying_picks": 217,
    "settled_picks": 182,
    "void": 0,
    "pending_picks": 35,
    "matches": 122,
    "operations_settled": 182,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
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    ],
    "methodologies": [
     "retro-1.1"
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    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   }
  ],
  "gaps": [
   {
    "code_name": "not_supported",
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   },
   {
    "code_name": "after_match",
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   },
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   },
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    "code_name": "outside_coverage",
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    "figure": 29
   },
   {
    "code_name": "ambiguous",
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   },
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  ],
  "duplicates": 20,
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 },
 "evidence_items": [
  {
   "observation_id": "n-57c25128a4f7da6bbf23d4b7",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-57c25128a4f7da6bbf23d4b7",
   "quote_text": "Jamie Shackleton (knee) is out and fellow summer signings Kieffer Moore and Sam McCallum will be assessed.",
   "fragment_from": 3677,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240808183117id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/preston-v-sheff-utd-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-ayg9e9c8WTrI/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "James Milton",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
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   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:51.931Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
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   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-08T13:04:49.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:51.931Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
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     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-d47c59711bcf2e7580641b14",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-d47c59711bcf2e7580641b14",
   "quote_text": "First-choice goalkeeper Freddie Woodman is hoping to recover from illness",
   "fragment_from": 3350,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240808183117id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/preston-v-sheff-utd-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-ayg9e9c8WTrI/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "James Milton",
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   "published_at": null,
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   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
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    "source_page_at": "2024-08-08T13:04:49.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:51.931Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
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     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-bda9b57fb5a751d71c1b37a0",
   "url": "/authors/james-milton/picks/29/#pick-n-bda9b57fb5a751d71c1b37a0",
   "quote_text": "Liverpool to win\nThe Reds won 17 of their 20 matches against bottom-half teams last season and should be too slick for their promoted hosts",
   "fragment_from": 5952,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240816173952id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/ipswich-vs-liverpool-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-ayIXG4v3u1KF/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "James Milton",
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   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:09.785Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "unpriced",
   "status": "not_supported",
   "cause": "",
   "cause_code": "not_supported",
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   "odds_set": {
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-16T13:12:28.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:09.785Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-e1ff31b0f94a1b3cee705ade",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-e1ff31b0f94a1b3cee705ade",
   "quote_text": "Bag up to £280 with the best Premier League betting offers and boosted odds this week",
   "fragment_from": 7029,
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   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240816173952id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/ipswich-vs-liverpool-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-ayIXG4v3u1KF/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "James Milton",
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   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-16T13:12:28.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:09.785Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
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     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-7b287278fecdfefc81856977",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-7b287278fecdfefc81856977",
   "quote_text": "Kalvin Phillips has completed a loan move to Ipswich.",
   "fragment_from": 5444,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240817165434id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/chelsea-vs-man-city-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aUaYJ3U3ba2Q/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "James Milton",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
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    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:02.247Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
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   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "observation_id": "n-24e4df4a7fdb297de9fa3b4f",
   "url": "/authors/james-milton/picks/29/#pick-n-24e4df4a7fdb297de9fa3b4f",
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "quote_text": "Simulations run by Football Meets Data suggest a tally of 15 points will be required",
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   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "quote_text": "Star man Bukayo Saka\nTop scorer Kai Havertz\nPenalty taker Bukayo Saka\nCard magnet Kai Havertz\nAssist ace Bukayo Saka\nSet-piece aerial threat Gabriel Magalhaes",
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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  {
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   "quote_text": "preference is for the club where Mourinho made his name as a manager.",
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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 "excluded_from_feed": {
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 "standing": {
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    "portion": "live",
    "n": 33,
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   },
   {
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   {
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    "body": "77 found after the match"
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    "details_words": "Goals over/under 23/41 (40 matches); Bet-builder combos 10/32 (30 matches); Match result (1X2) 13/26 (25 matches); Goalscorer picks 9/22 (20 matches); Both teams to score 11/18 (18 matches); Double chance and draw no bet 10/14 (14 matches); Correct score 1/10 (10 matches); Player props 3/9 (8 matches)",
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live+archived",
    "display_name": "Most recorded bet type",
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   {
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    "url": null,
    "provenance": "archived",
    "display_name": "Exact scores",
    "rule_href": "/titles/cs-01-exact-scores/"
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   {
    "code_name": "C-01",
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    "details_words": "Result calls on matches with at least 8 other tipsters and sources, where at least 60.0% of them named another outcome.",
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "display_name": "Minority calls",
    "rule_href": "/titles/c-01-minority-calls/"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "X-01",
    "body": "Longest price: correct at 3.75 · 22 Apr 2026",
    "details_words": "AFC Bournemouth v Leeds United · Draw at 3.75 (archive closing price)",
    "url": "/authors/james-milton/picks/14/#pick-n-c323557c4b4ce7fe70454969",
    "provenance": "archived",
    "display_name": "Correct at a long price",
    "rule_href": "/titles/x-01-correct-at-a-long-price/"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "E-01",
    "body": "Draw calls · 3/12",
    "details_words": null,
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "archived",
    "display_name": "Draw calls",
    "rule_href": "/titles/e-01-draw-calls/"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "E-03",
    "body": "Away calls · 4/10",
    "details_words": null,
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live+archived",
    "display_name": "Away calls",
    "rule_href": "/titles/e-03-away-calls/"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "E-06",
    "body": "Non-favourite calls · 3/13",
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    "url": null,
    "provenance": "archived",
    "display_name": "Non-favourite calls",
    "rule_href": "/titles/e-06-non-favourite-calls/"
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  ],
  "history": [
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    "code_name": "E-07",
    "body": "Home win at 3.30 · Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United · 21 May 2025 · archive record · removed 22 Oct 2026",
    "event_at": "2026-10-22",
    "status": "corrected",
    "cause": "recomputed after a correction to the record",
    "provenance": "live"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "E-07",
    "body": "Draw at 3.40 · Nottingham Forest v Newcastle United · 10 May 2026 · archive record",
    "event_at": "2026-05-10",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "90 days after the event",
    "provenance": "archived"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "E-07",
    "body": "Draw at 3.75 · AFC Bournemouth v Leeds United · 22 Apr 2026 · archive record",
    "event_at": "2026-04-22",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "90 days after the event",
    "provenance": "archived"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "E-07",
    "body": "Draw at 3.05 · Sunderland v Everton · 3 Nov 2025 · archive record",
    "event_at": "2025-11-03",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "90 days after the event",
    "provenance": "archived"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "CS-10",
    "body": "Exact score 0–4 · Slovan Bratislava v Manchester City · 1 Oct 2024 · archive record",
    "event_at": "2024-10-01",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "90 days after the event",
    "provenance": "archived"
   }
  ]
 },
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 214,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 139,
  "found_post_match": 75,
  "of_them_source_reported": 0,
  "live_count": 0,
  "date_count": 115,
  "span_from": "2024-08-07",
  "span_to": "2026-05-19",
  "line_text": "restored history: 214, of which pre-match archive 139",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League, Championship, League Cup, Champions League, Europa League and Conference League matches between 7 August 2024 and 19 May 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 214. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 139. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 75. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 214,
   "share": "0.4346"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 125,
    "roi": "6.0744",
    "ci_low": "-24.6287",
    "ci_high": "40.8539",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "n": 38,
    "roi": "17.9437",
    "ci_low": "-19.1775",
    "ci_high": "57.9673",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 171,
    "roi": "-8.0906",
    "ci_low": "-23.5276",
    "ci_high": "8.9848",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_derived_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored score forecast: result implied by the score, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 3,
    "roi": "-100.0000",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Premier League",
   "Championship",
   "League Cup",
   "Champions League",
   "Europa League",
   "Conference League"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 106 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 108 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged.",
  "score_accuracy": {
   "n": 3,
   "share": "0.0"
  }
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
    "basis": "closing",
    "basis_words": "the closing market price of the same selection (restored history)",
    "basis_short": "Closing market price (restored)",
    "compared": 23,
    "above": 9,
    "above_share_percent": "39.1",
    "below": 3,
    "within": 11,
    "median_difference_percent": "3.2",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated",
    "sentence": "The author's stated price against the closing price of the same selection: median +3.2% over 23 picks. The price available to followers is the market price, shown separately."
   }
  ],
  "examples": [
   {
    "url": "/authors/james-milton/picks/3/#pick-n-427e5f4ce4744402240b43b1",
    "basis": "closing",
    "stated": "6.50",
    "market": "9.03",
    "difference_percent": "-28.0"
   },
   {
    "url": "/authors/james-milton/picks/2/#pick-n-aa72e55fafd226d22d0395dc",
    "basis": "closing",
    "stated": "7.50",
    "market": "6.00",
    "difference_percent": "25.0"
   }
  ],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "racingpost.com",
   "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/manchester-united-vs-aston-villa-betting-tips-predictions-team-news-odds-bet-builder-ajZYR4x8c5Sg/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-09-28",
  "observed_to": "2026-11-07",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
  "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
  "restored": true,
  "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
  "headline_part": "archived",
  "settled_picks": 124,
  "matches": 86,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -5100,
  "staked_hundredths": 1240000,
  "return_percent": "-0.41",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2024-08-09",
  "period_to": "2026-05-11",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "short_history": false,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 124 settled archived picks by James Milton from copies archived before kick-off, across 86 matches between 9 August 2024 and 11 May 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned −0.4% on the total staked. Live record so far: won 3 of 5 settled live picks at our recorded market price. Of the 735 predictions we hold for James Milton, 634 are linked to matches: 49 were recorded by us before kick-off, 339 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 246 first found after the match; 6 are excluded while the attribution is under review. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled archived picks",
    "value": "124",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "86",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−51 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "value": "−0.4%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": "95% interval −21.5% to +21.5%"
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "This page combines James Milton across 3 platforms. The record above counts each prediction once, even when the same pick (match, market and selection) appeared on more than one platform; each platform keeps its own total under “Where James Milton publishes”.",
   "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included.",
   "6 predictions are kept out of this record’s totals: the article byline and the named tipster differ."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [
   {
    "date": "2024-08-09",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
    "n": 1
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-08-17",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000,
    "n": 2
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-08-19",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -40000,
    "n": 4
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-08-22",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -50000,
    "n": 5
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-09-17",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -64300,
    "n": 8
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-09-18",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -74300,
    "n": 9
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-09-22",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -57750,
    "n": 12
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-09-29",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -67750,
    "n": 13
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-10-02",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -8350,
    "n": 15
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-11-07",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -6050,
    "n": 19
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-11-23",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -25550,
    "n": 23
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-11-24",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -29050,
    "n": 25
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-11-28",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -39050,
    "n": 26
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-12-11",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -43750,
    "n": 29
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-12-14",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -69650,
    "n": 33
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-12-15",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -65150,
    "n": 34
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-12-18",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -54850,
    "n": 36
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-12-21",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -48950,
    "n": 40
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-12-27",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -17650,
    "n": 43
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-12-29",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -6750,
    "n": 44
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-01-14",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 6850,
    "n": 45
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-01-19",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -23150,
    "n": 48
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-01-22",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 4150,
    "n": 51
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-01-25",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 4950,
    "n": 53
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-01-27",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -13150,
    "n": 56
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-01-29",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -29750,
    "n": 59
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-02-26",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -49750,
    "n": 61
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-03-16",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -55550,
    "n": 63
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-04-01",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -37200,
    "n": 65
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-04-19",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -43450,
    "n": 68
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-04-20",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -29350,
    "n": 69
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-04-30",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -33650,
    "n": 71
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-05-03",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -43650,
    "n": 72
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-05-04",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -31650,
    "n": 73
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-05-16",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -46650,
    "n": 76
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-05-25",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -56650,
    "n": 77
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-09-27",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -83650,
    "n": 83
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-09-29",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -75550,
    "n": 84
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-10-01",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -95550,
    "n": 86
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-10-03",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -70100,
    "n": 89
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-10-19",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -90100,
    "n": 91
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-10-20",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -100100,
    "n": 92
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-10-25",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -120100,
    "n": 94
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-10-26",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -140100,
    "n": 96
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-11-03",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -114300,
    "n": 99
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-11-09",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -90300,
    "n": 100
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-11-26",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -62800,
    "n": 101
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-03-21",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -91100,
    "n": 109
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-03-22",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -72750,
    "n": 111
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-04-15",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -74400,
    "n": 115
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-04-18",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -94400,
    "n": 117
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-04-22",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -52200,
    "n": 120
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-05-10",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -21700,
    "n": 122
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-05-11",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -5100,
    "n": 124
   }
  ],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": {
    "part": "live",
    "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.",
    "settled_picks": 5,
    "matches": 5,
    "match_dates": 3,
    "period_from": "2026-10-18",
    "period_to": "2026-11-07",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": 12650,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-10-18",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 11900,
     "after_picks": 1
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-11-06",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 14150,
     "after_picks": 3
    },
    "line_drawn": false,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2026-10-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 11900,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-06",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 14150,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-07",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 12650,
      "n": 5,
      "picks": 2
     }
    ]
   },
   "archived": {
    "part": "archived",
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
    "settled_picks": 124,
    "matches": 86,
    "match_dates": 79,
    "period_from": "2024-08-09",
    "period_to": "2026-05-11",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -5100,
    "low": {
     "date": "2025-10-26",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -140100,
     "after_picks": 96
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2025-01-14",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 6850,
     "after_picks": 45
    },
    "line_drawn": true,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2024-08-09",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-08-17",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000,
      "n": 2,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-08-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30000,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-08-19",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -40000,
      "n": 4,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-08-22",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -50000,
      "n": 5,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-09-14",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -60000,
      "n": 6,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-09-17",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -64300,
      "n": 8,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-09-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -74300,
      "n": 9,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-09-21",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -58600,
      "n": 10,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-09-22",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -57750,
      "n": 12,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-09-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -67750,
      "n": 13,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-10-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -12750,
      "n": 14,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-10-02",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -8350,
      "n": 15,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-11-05",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -14350,
      "n": 18,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-11-07",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -6050,
      "n": 19,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-11-23",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -25550,
      "n": 23,
      "picks": 4
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-11-24",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -29050,
      "n": 25,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-11-28",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -39050,
      "n": 26,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-11-30",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -33750,
      "n": 28,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-12-11",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -43750,
      "n": 29,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-12-12",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -59650,
      "n": 32,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-12-14",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -69650,
      "n": 33,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-12-15",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -65150,
      "n": 34,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-12-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -54850,
      "n": 36,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-12-19",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -61250,
      "n": 38,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-12-21",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -48950,
      "n": 40,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-12-22",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -35100,
      "n": 41,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-12-27",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -17650,
      "n": 43,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-12-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -6750,
      "n": 44,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-01-14",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 6850,
      "n": 45,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-01-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -3150,
      "n": 46,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-01-19",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -23150,
      "n": 48,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-01-21",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -4950,
      "n": 50,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-01-22",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 4150,
      "n": 51,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-01-25",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 4950,
      "n": 53,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-01-26",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -5050,
      "n": 54,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-01-27",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -13150,
      "n": 56,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-01-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -29750,
      "n": 59,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-02-23",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -39750,
      "n": 60,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-02-26",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -49750,
      "n": 61,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-03-16",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -55550,
      "n": 63,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -37200,
      "n": 65,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-10",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -47200,
      "n": 66,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-16",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -33450,
      "n": 67,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-19",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -43450,
      "n": 68,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-20",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -29350,
      "n": 69,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-28",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -39350,
      "n": 70,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-30",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -33650,
      "n": 71,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-05-03",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -43650,
      "n": 72,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-05-04",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -31650,
      "n": 73,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-05-06",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -36650,
      "n": 75,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-05-16",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -46650,
      "n": 76,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-05-25",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -56650,
      "n": 77,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-09-13",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -68950,
      "n": 80,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-09-27",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -83650,
      "n": 83,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-09-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -75550,
      "n": 84,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -95550,
      "n": 86,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-02",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -79600,
      "n": 88,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-03",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -70100,
      "n": 89,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -80100,
      "n": 90,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-19",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -90100,
      "n": 91,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-20",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -100100,
      "n": 92,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-21",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -110100,
      "n": 93,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-25",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -120100,
      "n": 94,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-26",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -140100,
      "n": 96,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -136800,
      "n": 97,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-11-03",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -114300,
      "n": 99,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-11-09",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -90300,
      "n": 100,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-11-26",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -62800,
      "n": 101,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-11-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -64400,
      "n": 103,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-03-16",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -76700,
      "n": 106,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-03-21",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -91100,
      "n": 109,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-03-22",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -72750,
      "n": 111,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-04-12",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -85900,
      "n": 114,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-04-15",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -74400,
      "n": 115,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-04-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -94400,
      "n": 117,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-04-22",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -52200,
      "n": 120,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-05-10",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -21700,
      "n": 122,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-05-11",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -5100,
      "n": 124,
      "picks": 2
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record restored 124 settled archived picks by James Milton from copies archived before kick-off, across 86 matches between 9 August 2024 and 11 May 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned −0.4% on the total staked. Live record so far: won 3 of 5 settled live picks at our recorded market price. Of the 735 predictions we hold for James Milton, 634 are linked to matches: 49 were recorded by us before kick-off, 339 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 246 first found after the match; 6 are excluded while the attribution is under review. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/james-milton/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "retro-1.1"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 729,
   "under_review": 6,
   "no_match_linked": 95,
   "proven_predictions": 388,
   "proven_checked": 192,
   "proven_measured": 129,
   "proven_dates": 102,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 49,
     "checked": 41,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 5,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 5,
      "net_points_hundredths": 12650,
      "staked_hundredths": 50000,
      "return_percent": "25.30",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2026-10-18",
      "period_to": "2026-11-07",
      "method_version": "2.2",
      "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0",
      "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0",
      "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 0
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "author_price",
       "picks": 4,
       "return_main_percent": "1.88",
       "return_other_percent": "2.50",
       "settled_excluding_void": 4,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 750,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 1000,
       "period_from": "2026-11-06",
       "period_to": "2026-11-07"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price",
       "series_code": "closing_live",
       "picks": 3,
       "return_main_percent": "47.17",
       "return_other_percent": "56.33",
       "settled_excluding_void": 3,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 14150,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 16900,
       "period_from": "2026-10-18",
       "period_to": "2026-11-06"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 41,
      "priced": 5
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 5,
      "won": 3,
      "won_percent": "60.0",
      "implied_percent": "44.2",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 2,
        "picks": 3,
        "implied_percent": "43.0"
       },
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "46.0"
       }
      ]
     },
     "reviewed_after": {
      "predictions": 31,
      "right": 13,
      "wrong": 16,
      "other": 2
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 339,
     "checked": 151,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 124,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 86,
      "net_points_hundredths": -5100,
      "staked_hundredths": 1240000,
      "return_percent": "-0.41",
      "interval_low": "-21.51",
      "interval_high": "21.48",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2024-08-09",
      "period_to": "2026-05-11",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 63,
       "return_main_percent": "-12.00",
       "return_other_percent": "-7.86",
       "settled_excluding_void": 63,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -75600,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -49500,
       "period_from": "2024-08-09",
       "period_to": "2026-05-10"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price, aggregator",
       "series_code": "retro_market_closing",
       "picks": 23,
       "return_main_percent": "7.35",
       "return_other_percent": "7.39",
       "settled_excluding_void": 23,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 16900,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 17000,
       "period_from": "2025-02-23",
       "period_to": "2026-05-10"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 1,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": [
       "1 score forecast is waiting for a final score."
      ]
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 151,
      "priced": 124
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 124,
      "won": 62,
      "won_percent": "50.0",
      "implied_percent": "48.8",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 23,
        "picks": 40,
        "implied_percent": "58.4"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 11,
        "picks": 17,
        "implied_percent": "62.9"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 7,
        "picks": 17,
        "implied_percent": "41.6"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and both teams to score",
        "won": 3,
        "picks": 11,
        "implied_percent": "33.4"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and total goals",
        "won": 5,
        "picks": 11,
        "implied_percent": "40.7"
       },
       {
        "market": "Other markets",
        "won": 13,
        "picks": 28,
        "implied_percent": "40.2"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 246,
     "checked": 77,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 58,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 40,
      "net_points_hundredths": -107250,
      "staked_hundredths": 580000,
      "return_percent": "-18.49",
      "interval_low": "-45.34",
      "interval_high": "10.01",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2024-08-07",
      "period_to": "2026-05-19",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 29,
       "return_main_percent": "-24.14",
       "return_other_percent": "-29.48",
       "settled_excluding_void": 29,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -70000,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -85500,
       "period_from": "2024-08-07",
       "period_to": "2026-05-19"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price, aggregator",
       "series_code": "retro_market_closing",
       "picks": 15,
       "return_main_percent": "32.73",
       "return_other_percent": "34.12",
       "settled_excluding_void": 15,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 49100,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 51186,
       "period_from": "2025-02-12",
       "period_to": "2026-05-13"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 77,
      "priced": 58
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 58,
      "won": 22,
      "won_percent": "37.9",
      "implied_percent": "46.2",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 6,
        "picks": 16,
        "implied_percent": "40.9"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 7,
        "picks": 14,
        "implied_percent": "57.0"
       },
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 3,
        "picks": 7,
        "implied_percent": "51.8"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 5,
        "implied_percent": "62.9"
       },
       {
        "market": "Correct score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 5,
        "implied_percent": "12.3"
       },
       {
        "market": "Other markets",
        "won": 5,
        "picks": 11,
        "implied_percent": "44.3"
       }
      ]
     }
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": {
   "predictions": 49,
   "checked": 41,
   "settled": 5,
   "won": 3,
   "void": 0,
   "checked_won": 17,
   "checked_settled": 41,
   "threshold": 10,
   "text": "Live record so far: won 3 of 5 settled live picks at our recorded market price."
  },
  "headline_record_ids": [
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  ],
  "interval_low": "-21.51",
  "interval_high": "21.48",
  "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 9 August 2024 – 11 May 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1",
  "record_from": "2024-08-07",
  "record_to": "2026-11-07"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
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   "url": "/authors/james-milton/picks/37/#pick-n-b2f67fca598983c6747f22ac",
   "match": "Birmingham City v Swansea City",
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   "kickoff": "2026-11-07T15:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "EFL Championship",
   "lead_hours": 46.7,
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   "points_hundredths": 8500,
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   },
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    },
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    },
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    },
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     "in_words": "Won: the final score was Birmingham City 2-1 Swansea City."
    },
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     }
    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
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     "status_words": "Named in the source as the tipster",
     "status_note": null,
     "evidence_fragment": "James Milton's best bets Aston Villa to beat Manchester United Sky Sports Premier League & Main Event, 4.30pm Sunday 3pts 11-5 bet365, BoyleSports, Coral Birmingham to beat Swansea 3",
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    },
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    "choice_words": "Birmingham City to win"
   }
  },
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   "kickoff": "2026-11-07T12:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": 43.0,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: draw at 3.5",
   "quote": null,
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   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
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   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "market_price",
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   "published_at": "2026-11-05T17:00:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-11-05T17:29:32.121Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
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   "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
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    "source_info": {
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    },
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    },
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    },
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    },
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    ],
    "corrections": [],
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     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
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    },
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   }
  },
  {
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   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
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   "published_at": "2026-11-04T18:00:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-11-04T18:18:26.586Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
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   "evidence": {
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     "display_name": null,
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    "published_at": "2026-11-04T18:00:00.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-11-04T18:18:26.586Z",
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     "display_name": "Everton — Coventry City",
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     "url": "/football/matches/everton-vs-coventry-city-2026-11-06/",
     "scoreline": "3-1",
     "condition": "finished"
    },
    "market_label": "Double chance",
    "outcome_label": "draw or Coventry City",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": "2.2",
     "our_snapshot": "2.1550",
     "our_snapshot_at": "2026-11-04T18:15:22.327Z",
     "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot",
     "closing": null,
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    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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    },
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    "author_claim": {
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    "choice_words": "Pedro Porro over 0.5 shots on target"
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   "lead_hours": -3189.2,
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   "author_said": "Correct score: Arsenal 3-0 Burnley",
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  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-26cd1d42eafa99fb76275637",
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   "record_id": "n-57865f56c0969d74c654cb72",
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   "kickoff": "2026-05-11T19:00:00.000Z",
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   "lead_hours": -3358.3,
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   "author_said": "Player shots on target over/under 0.5: Richarlison over 0.5 shots on target at 4",
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   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Newcastle to be leading at half-time\n2pts 6-5 Hills",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-17T15:45:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-01T01:01:48.919Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-e2611cdda173fa42b318988c",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "More goals to be scored in second half",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-13T15:35:55.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:16:38.362Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-7d096f2901210eedc9535fe8",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Neco Williams to have one or more shots",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-13T15:35:55.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:16:38.362Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-3494788a5ee42e169fb6cf8b",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Joelinton to be shown a card",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-06T15:00:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:17:57.106Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-fbe9f8be0146534dfdaf5141",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Liverpool-Liverpool double result\n\nLuis Diaz to score at any time\n\nOver 4.5 cards in the match\n\n6-1 with bet365",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-04T12:45:07.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-01T01:02:38.870Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-aff5ee5443f3ee8b5d778de2",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Arsenal look the team to back to chase home Liverpool in the title race.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-02T16:30:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:18:52.105Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-dc7121ac3a93fc7ba70e56cf",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Arne Slot is 1-4 to match Klopp's tally of league titles at the first attempt.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-02T16:30:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:18:52.105Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-20b52bb1807252e60b281b7c",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Liverpool-Arsenal straight forecast\n2pts 8-13 Hills",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-02T16:30:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:18:52.105Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-73689e778bccc5ff4b435615",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Manchester United to finish in the bottom half\n4pts 8-13 Hills",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-02T15:15:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:20:12.617Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "lead_time": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "threshold_hours": 2.0,
  "picks": 377,
  "before_kickoff": 65,
  "after_kickoff": 312,
  "at_least_2h": 65,
  "share_2h_plus": 17.2,
  "median_hours": 26.7,
  "min_hours": 3.9,
  "max_hours": 200.4,
  "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off."
 },
 "baseline": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "rule": "recorded-line-1.0",
  "state": "settled",
  "picks": 1,
  "settled_picks_all": 5,
  "excluded": {
   "market_without_favourite": 2,
   "no_recorded_line": 2,
   "favourite_not_settled": 0
  },
  "staked_hundredths": 10000,
  "author_net_hundredths": 8500,
  "favourite_net_hundredths": 8500,
  "difference_hundredths": 0,
  "author_return_percent": 85.0,
  "favourite_return_percent": 85.0,
  "author_hit_rate": 100.0,
  "favourite_hit_rate": 100.0,
  "picked_favourite_share": 100.0,
  "by_market": [
   {
    "market_code": "1x2",
    "picks": 1,
    "staked_hundredths": 10000,
    "author_net_hundredths": 8500,
    "favourite_net_hundredths": 8500,
    "author_hits": 1,
    "favourite_hits": 1,
    "picked_favourite": 1,
    "author_return_percent": 85.0,
    "favourite_return_percent": 85.0
   }
  ],
  "return_over_time": [
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-07T15:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 8500,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 8500
   }
  ],
  "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out."
 },
 "pagination": {
  "per_page": 20,
  "total": 735,
  "pages": 38,
  "page_urls": [
   "/authors/james-milton/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/2/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/3/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/4/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/5/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/6/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/7/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/8/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/9/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/10/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/11/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/12/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/13/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/14/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/15/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/16/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/17/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/18/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/19/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/20/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/21/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/22/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/23/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/24/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/25/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/26/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/27/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/28/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/29/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/30/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/31/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/32/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/33/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/34/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/35/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/36/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/37/",
   "/authors/james-milton/picks/38/"
  ],
  "groups": {
   "settled": 235,
   "pending": 7,
   "excluded": 493
  },
  "continuation": "by_time",
  "page": 1,
  "first": 1,
  "last": 20,
  "author_url": "/authors/james-milton/",
  "current": true
 },
 "title_tag": "James Milton Predictions: This Week's Picks & Verified Record",
 "calculator": null,
 "person": {
  "person_id": "o-8568cb3a3871e8164f370e4e",
  "type_code": "individual",
  "name_shown": "James Milton",
  "main_entity": "e-8568cb3a3871e8164f370e4e",
  "identity": {
   "status": "verified_identity",
   "is_verified": true,
   "when": "2026-10-11",
   "source_list": [
    {
     "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/authors/james-milton/",
     "what": "«James Milton has worked at the Racing Post since 2007. Primarily a football and cricket tipster, James is also a regular columnist for the Post.» Должность: Sports Betting Journalist; рубрики: Bet of"
    }
   ]
  },
  "platform_list": [
   {
    "entity_ref": "e-8568cb3a3871e8164f370e4e",
    "medium": "Racing Post",
    "channel": "section pages",
    "domain": "racingpost.com",
    "source_info": "racing-post",
    "byline": "James Milton",
    "url": "/sources/racing-post/",
    "summary": {
     "statements": 1905,
     "predictions": 536,
     "settled_picks": 119,
     "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
     "return_percent": -3.85,
     "headline_part": "archived",
     "period_from": "2026-09-28",
     "period_to": "2026-10-02"
    }
   },
   {
    "entity_ref": "e-0226dbbe92c9cd412af58172",
    "medium": "Racing Post",
    "channel": "author pages",
    "domain": "racingpost.com",
    "source_info": "racing-post",
    "byline": "James Milton",
    "url": null,
    "summary": {
     "statements": 606,
     "predictions": 181,
     "settled_picks": 5,
     "headline_kind": "live_snapshot",
     "return_percent": 25.3,
     "headline_part": "live",
     "period_from": "2026-09-28",
     "period_to": "2026-11-07"
    }
   },
   {
    "entity_ref": "e-a2c200f763928df5acee989a",
    "medium": "LiveScore",
    "channel": "section pages",
    "domain": "livescore.com",
    "source_info": "livescore",
    "byline": "James Milton",
    "url": null,
    "summary": {
     "statements": 162,
     "predictions": 18,
     "settled_picks": 5,
     "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
     "return_percent": 81.4,
     "headline_part": "archived",
     "period_from": "2026-10-09",
     "period_to": "2026-11-06"
    }
   }
  ],
  "previously": [],
  "trust_tier": "established"
 },
 "data_revision": {
  "data_version": "2026-10-22.3",
  "updated": "2026-10-22",
  "current_release": "2026-11-07.2",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "price_rule": "reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
  "sample": {
   "settled_picks": 124,
   "matches": 86,
   "void": 0,
   "period_from": "2024-08-09",
   "period_to": "2026-05-11",
   "composition_hash": "fb63f19e344f019700935baba113eeeb70006d3eb112e1c54293911f4ee3e76d"
  },
  "changes_url": "#changes",
  "corrections_url": "/corrections/"
 },
 "number_changes": [
  {
   "id": "zc-7f67749abb7669e2adbe",
   "at": "2026-10-22T09:54:30.278Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-22.3",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-22.2",
   "url": "/authors/james-milton/",
   "category": "data_corrected",
   "category_words": "Data corrected",
   "before": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-22.2",
    "return_percent": "3.04",
    "settled_picks": 140,
    "matches": 92,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "d17e49225675a477b0eac1e85a19623e4c6689b01674d0cf1e46dde6cfdd39ca",
    "text": "+3.04% on 140 settled picks across 92 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-22.3",
    "return_percent": "-0.41",
    "settled_picks": 124,
    "matches": 86,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "fb63f19e344f019700935baba113eeeb70006d3eb112e1c54293911f4ee3e76d",
    "text": "−0.41% on 124 settled picks across 86 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Data corrected: 16 picks left the headline sample.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
    "added": 0,
    "removed": 16,
    "changed": 0
   },
   "correction_id": "i-0275a0301bc816b62425"
  },
  {
   "id": "zc-ae9b686095e34d44e247",
   "at": "2026-10-22T05:56:36.122Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-22.2",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-22.1",
   "url": "/authors/james-milton/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
   "before": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-20.4",
    "return_percent": "-0.41",
    "settled_picks": 124,
    "matches": 86,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "fb63f19e344f019700935baba113eeeb70006d3eb112e1c54293911f4ee3e76d",
    "text": "−0.41% on 124 settled picks across 86 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-22.2",
    "return_percent": "3.04",
    "settled_picks": 140,
    "matches": 92,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "d17e49225675a477b0eac1e85a19623e4c6689b01674d0cf1e46dde6cfdd39ca",
    "text": "+3.04% on 140 settled picks across 92 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Added 16 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
    "added": 16,
    "removed": 0,
    "changed": 0
   },
   "correction_id": null
  },
  {
   "id": "zc-edb75ee7c7a7b86d9f08",
   "at": "2026-10-20T05:18:25.744Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-20.4",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-20.3",
   "url": "/authors/james-milton/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
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    "text": "+0.40% on 123 settled picks across 85 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
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    "composition_hash": "fb63f19e344f019700935baba113eeeb70006d3eb112e1c54293911f4ee3e76d",
    "text": "−0.41% on 124 settled picks across 86 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
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    "text": "+0.40% on 123 settled picks across 85 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.",
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    "text": "+5.58% on 136 settled picks across 90 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
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    "composition_hash": "cee764ce276735ac1f397871703e9725fae65835605679426b494fbb3a5247b1",
    "text": "−0.41% on 124 settled picks across 86 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
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    "text": "+1.65% on 143 settled picks across 93 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "composition_hash": "9323fee4f4d0f352c7673ed69f6b985951a348f5a64774951a28095c132abdfd",
    "text": "+5.58% on 136 settled picks across 90 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Data corrected: 7 picks left the headline sample.",
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    "text": "+5.58% on 136 settled picks across 90 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "text": "+1.65% on 143 settled picks across 93 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Added 7 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
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  {
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    "composition_hash": "ed5f44703fb69d82ca71e05f4d476f020aefb107b8fac29c3cd7c2f599dbf26d",
    "text": "+4.68% on 129 settled picks across 85 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
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    "composition_hash": "9323fee4f4d0f352c7673ed69f6b985951a348f5a64774951a28095c132abdfd",
    "text": "+5.58% on 136 settled picks across 90 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample; 8 picks added.",
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    "composition_hash": "6d90100c12369b81058062b9693be8c40d3946e31137537f5fd1516cc1c8c76f",
    "text": "+0.03% on 135 settled picks across 88 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
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   "after": {
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    "composition_hash": "ed5f44703fb69d82ca71e05f4d476f020aefb107b8fac29c3cd7c2f599dbf26d",
    "text": "+4.68% on 129 settled picks across 85 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Data corrected: 6 picks left the headline sample.",
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    "composition_hash": "dedfa27a66b639e35a5e3f6b8dddb7d09fe8e08ab891a60b72f2123f4f644028",
    "text": "−1.58% on 139 settled picks across 89 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "composition_hash": "6d90100c12369b81058062b9693be8c40d3946e31137537f5fd1516cc1c8c76f",
    "text": "+0.03% on 135 settled picks across 88 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Data corrected: 4 picks left the headline sample.",
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  {
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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    "composition_hash": "593480bd89738f25678680e942b51b228f9b891c117c1a1c85d31d42b3ba3173",
    "text": "−2.25% on 138 settled picks across 89 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "composition_hash": "dedfa27a66b639e35a5e3f6b8dddb7d09fe8e08ab891a60b72f2123f4f644028",
    "text": "−1.58% on 139 settled picks across 89 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Data corrected: line sign (1 pick); 1 pick added.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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   },
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  {
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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    "composition_hash": "d2a9b6532ae44036039499cb5f40e9c559755ee19d52e1bb99782b47687ff898",
    "text": "−1.25% on 134 settled picks across 85 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-13.3",
    "return_percent": "-2.25",
    "settled_picks": 138,
    "matches": 89,
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    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "593480bd89738f25678680e942b51b228f9b891c117c1a1c85d31d42b3ba3173",
    "text": "−2.25% on 138 settled picks across 89 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Added 4 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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    "removed": 0,
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   },
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  {
   "id": "zc-5613b1afc62cde4a408c",
   "at": "2026-10-09T12:49:36.723Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-09.2",
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   "url": "/authors/james-milton/",
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    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored",
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    "composition_hash": "43017b25e6fd41da2b09fefdefdcbdf17cccad6347b74e38b0c71239cb899347",
    "text": "−11.61% on 175 settled picks across 112 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-09.2",
    "return_percent": "-1.25",
    "settled_picks": 134,
    "matches": 85,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "d2a9b6532ae44036039499cb5f40e9c559755ee19d52e1bb99782b47687ff898",
    "text": "−1.25% on 134 settled picks across 85 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, a historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first found after the match no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (175 settled picks). Now: historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (134 settled picks).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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  {
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   "url": "/authors/james-milton/",
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    "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored",
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    "composition_hash": "c5a3ff9941b34d677173741886f5345bbd47480ee546d8df54e3392608fd45fa",
    "text": "−4.81% on 98 settled picks across 59 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1"
   },
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    "return_percent": "-11.61",
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    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored",
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    "composition_hash": "43017b25e6fd41da2b09fefdefdcbdf17cccad6347b74e38b0c71239cb899347",
    "text": "−11.61% on 175 settled picks across 112 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Added 77 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
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    "kickoff": "2026-11-08T11:30:00.000Z",
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    "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
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    "competition": "Premier League",
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    "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
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   {
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    "match": "Le Havre v Lorient",
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    "kickoff": "2026-11-08T16:15:00.000Z",
    "competition": "Ligue 1",
    "author_said": "1X2, match result: Le Havre at 2.88",
    "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "recorded_at": "2026-11-05T16:18:29.001Z",
    "platform": "Racing Post, author pages"
   },
   {
    "record_id": "n-124341c0a897483e89bb9399",
    "url": "/authors/james-milton/picks/38/#pick-n-124341c0a897483e89bb9399",
    "match": "Manchester United v Aston Villa",
    "match_url": "/football/matches/manchester-united-vs-aston-villa-2026-11-08/",
    "kickoff": "2026-11-08T16:30:00.000Z",
    "competition": "Premier League",
    "author_said": "Player to be carded: Ayden Heaven to be carded at 3.75",
    "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
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    "record_id": "n-927b08e5bfb932c098892ca8",
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    "match": "Manchester United v Aston Villa",
    "match_url": "/football/matches/manchester-united-vs-aston-villa-2026-11-08/",
    "kickoff": "2026-11-08T16:30:00.000Z",
    "competition": "Premier League",
    "author_said": "Match result and both teams to score: Aston Villa win, both teams to score: yes at 5.5",
    "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "recorded_at": "2026-11-07T16:48:26.110Z",
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   {
    "record_id": "n-a1857ee74e1078d618da72f0",
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    "kickoff": "2026-11-08T16:30:00.000Z",
    "competition": "Premier League",
    "author_said": "1X2, match result: Aston Villa at 3.2",
    "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "recorded_at": "2026-11-05T16:18:29.001Z",
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  "records_corrected": 5,
  "last_correction_at": "2026-10-22T09:54:30.278Z",
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