{ "schema_name": "page", "schema_version": "2.0", "page_type": "author", "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/", "canonical": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/", "language": "en", "hreflang": [], "translations": [], "heading": "Jack Ogalbe: Football Prediction Record", "description": "44 settled picks by Jack Ogalbe archived before kick-off across 31 matches, 14 Sep 2024 – 20 Sep 2026: +20.0% reconstructed at archived prices.", "first_paragraph": { "body": "Forecast Record restored 44 settled archived picks by Jack Ogalbe from copies archived before kick-off, across 31 matches between 14 September 2024 and 20 September 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned +20.0% on the total staked. Live record so far: won 0 of 3 settled live picks at our recorded market price. Of the 162 predictions we hold for Jack Ogalbe, 160 are linked to matches: 4 were recorded by us before kick-off, 105 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 51 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "key_number": "+20.0%", "data": "2026-11-07", "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot", "brand": "Forecast Record" }, "indexable": false, "noindex_reason": "outside_core", "indexing_threshold": { "settled_count": 50, "date_count": 31, "required_settled": 10, "required_dates": 2, "live_count": 0, "restored_count": 70, "of_them_archived": 47 }, "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z", "content_hash": null, "meaning_hash": "f37747f7fc1bb5e356726f9f047ae5fa19c84ce2862155581dc34c2974eb6a00", "dependency_group": "author:e-86c570796115581e91d8e588", "release_id": "20261107-195223", "markup": [ { "type_code": "WebPage", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Organization", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Person", "allowed": true, "cause": null } ], "exports": [ { "type_code": "json", "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/index.json", "bytes": null }, { "type_code": "csv", "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/picks.csv", "bytes": null } ], "modules": { "affiliate": true, "api": true, "compare_yourself": false }, "affiliate_block": { "container": true, "request_url": "/partnery/moi", "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.", "page_category": "author" }, "restrictions": { "name_withdrawn": false, "tracker_number": null, "withdrawn_quotes": [], "removed_at": null, "cause": null, "suspended_records": [], "withdrawal_log_number": 0 }, "page_links": { "methodology": "/methodology/", "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/", "source_coverage": "/coverage/", "corrections_log": "/corrections/", "api": "/api/", "claim": "/claim/" }, "entity": { "id": "e-86c570796115581e91d8e588", "public_name": "Jack Ogalbe", "tracker_number": 1523, "status": "active", "inactive_since": null, "verified_creator": false, "observation_period": { "since": "2026-09-28", "until": "2026-10-17" }, "platform_list": [ { "medium": "website", "handle": null, "url": null, "link_confirmed": false, "show": true } ], "comment": null }, "headline_number": { "metric": { "metric_id": "p-e-86c570796115581e91d8e588-roi-market-price-90d-z99", "code_name": "roi_market_price", "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot", "window_kind": "90d", "window_from": "2026-08-09", "window_to": "2026-11-07", "amount": "-100.0000", "unit": "percent", "data_status": "calculated", "cause": null, "n_bets": 3, "n_events": 3, "n_void": 0, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "ci_method": "not_estimated", "price_source": "market_price", "coverage_percent": null, "breakdown": [], "methodology_version": "2.2", "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "enough_for_ranking": false, "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "series_uid": null }, "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 3 settled picks across 3 matches", "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, "metrics": [], "history": [], "simulation": { "series_key": null, "series_label": "No level stake placed", "bankroll_hundredths": 1000000, "reserve_hundredths": 0, "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000, "initial_hundredths": 1000000, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "top_up_count": 0, "profit_hundredths": 0, "rewards_off": null, "data_points": [], "top_ups": [], "rule": "Every tracked author starts with 10,000 points and stakes 100 per qualifying pick. This author has 0 settled bets, so the bankroll stands at its starting value." }, "simulations": [], "completeness": { "detected": 461, "recognised": 162, "accepted": 102, "executed": 99, "calculated": 83, "gaps": [ { "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages", "figure": 31 }, { "cause": "not_supported", "figure": 29 }, { "cause": "too_late", "figure": 2 }, { "cause": "not_checked", "figure": 1 } ] }, "record_counts": { "dictionary_version": "1", "statements": 461, "of_them_restored": 453, "not_predictions": { "opinions": 56, "not_about_a_match": 243, "unclassified": 0 }, "predictions": 162, "predictions_restored": 154, "matches": 6, "admitted": 102, "qualifying_picks": 99, "qualifying_picks_restored": 96, "settled_picks": 83, "settled_picks_restored": 80, "series_list": [ { "code_name": "market_price", "derived": false, "is_restored": false, "qualifying_picks": 3, "settled_picks": 3, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 0, "matches": 3, "operations_settled": 3, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "2.2" ], "display_name": "At an independent odds snapshot" }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing", "derived": false, "is_restored": true, "qualifying_picks": 18, "settled_picks": 14, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 4, "matches": 13, "operations_settled": 14, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "retro-1.0" ], "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price" }, { "code_name": "retro_author_price", "derived": false, "is_restored": true, "qualifying_picks": 77, "settled_picks": 66, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 11, "matches": 44, "operations_settled": 66, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "retro-1.0" ], "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price" }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm", "derived": false, "is_restored": true, "qualifying_picks": 72, "settled_picks": 65, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 7, "matches": 45, "operations_settled": 65, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "retro-1.1" ], "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)" } ], "gaps": [ { "code_name": "after_match", "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages", "figure": 31 }, { "code_name": "not_supported", "cause": "not_supported", "figure": 29 }, { "code_name": "too_late", "cause": "too_late", "figure": 2 }, { "code_name": "not_checked", "cause": "not_checked", "figure": 1 } ], "duplicates": 0, "junk": { "ads": 20, "service": 4 }, "dictionary_url": "/methodology/#words" }, "evidence_items": [ { "observation_id": "n-e6fb40392491c85914e7fb70", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-e6fb40392491c85914e7fb70", "quote_text": "Pays out at 28-1 with Betfair", "fragment_from": 5280, "fragment_to": 5309, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240930195037id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/west-brom-vs-middlesbrough-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-actJA5b1dCN7/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Jack Ogalbe", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "9927ae01694a33abb611a98f57f198850b1da4214ad61af2d8aa0b4bc556a420", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:49:18.284Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-09-30T16:08:09.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:49:18.284Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-e89f11e1bf6e7dcc0959b633", "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/picks/9/#pick-n-e89f11e1bf6e7dcc0959b633", "quote_text": "Luke Ayling to be shown a card", "fragment_from": 5144, "fragment_to": 5174, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240930195037id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/west-brom-vs-middlesbrough-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-actJA5b1dCN7/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Jack Ogalbe", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "9927ae01694a33abb611a98f57f198850b1da4214ad61af2d8aa0b4bc556a420", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:49:18.284Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "unpriced", "status": "too_late", "cause": "", "cause_code": "too_late", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-09-30T16:08:09.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:49:18.284Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-8bc7a99de9b09d6b75cf31d1", "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/picks/9/#pick-n-8bc7a99de9b09d6b75cf31d1", "quote_text": "Josh Maja to score", "fragment_from": 5047, "fragment_to": 5065, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240930195037id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/west-brom-vs-middlesbrough-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-actJA5b1dCN7/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Jack Ogalbe", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "9927ae01694a33abb611a98f57f198850b1da4214ad61af2d8aa0b4bc556a420", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:49:18.284Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "unpriced", "status": "too_late", "cause": "", "cause_code": "too_late", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-09-30T16:08:09.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:49:18.284Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-322ff4dfe3ab88513a8600c1", "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/picks/8/#pick-n-322ff4dfe3ab88513a8600c1", "quote_text": "West Brom to win", "fragment_from": 1523, "fragment_to": 1539, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240930195037id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/west-brom-vs-middlesbrough-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-actJA5b1dCN7/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Jack Ogalbe", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "9927ae01694a33abb611a98f57f198850b1da4214ad61af2d8aa0b4bc556a420", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2024-09-30T16:08:09.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:49:18.284Z", "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:58.492Z", "statement_class": "unpriced", "status": "too_late", "cause": "counted in the restored-history series", "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": null, "display_name": "West Bromwich Albion v Middlesbrough", "competition_name": "EFL Championship", "starts_at": "2024-10-01T19:00:00.000Z", "url": null, "scoreline": "0-1" }, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "outcome_label": "West Bromwich Albion", "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": "2.3200", "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)" }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-09-30T19:50:37.000Z", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2024-09-30T16:08:09.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2024-09-30T16:08:09.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:49:18.284Z", "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-09-30T19:50:37.000Z", "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": "Added to our record on 2 Oct 2026", "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "West Bromwich Albion", "author_odds": null, "market_key": "1x2", "choice_key": "1", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "1X2, match result: West Bromwich Albion" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "0-1", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "in_words": "Lost: the final score was West Bromwich Albion 0-1 Middlesbrough." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "c92ea7646b47280ac621a6e08aadb4abc8580ddf301e321bc538837b1a740c49", "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "West Bromwich Albion", "decimal_odds": "2.3200", "odds_role": "closing_odds", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:58.492Z", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Jack Ogalbe", "publisher": "racingpost.com", "forecaster": "Jack Ogalbe", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/west-brom-vs-middlesbrough-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-actJA5b1dCN7/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-90cec94906f97b8cdbf57cb7", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-90cec94906f97b8cdbf57cb7", "quote_text": "Pays out at 10-1 with Betfair\n\nClick for free bets and betting offers from the Racing Post", "fragment_from": 5614, "fragment_to": 5704, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241002170237id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/europa-league/rangers-vs-lyon-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-asuSf7t1qO0F/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Jack Ogalbe", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "27bdaed4e60fa492d4e8e671e1e8a9805e427be34a20480ab212cb7e3bc3e6a8", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:48:16.399Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-10-02T16:46:38.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:48:16.399Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, 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"https://web.archive.org/web/20251001154501id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/europa-league/sturm-graz-vs-rangers-predictions-team-news-betting-tips-odds-and-bet-builder-ahTJD2t5lWxc/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Jack Ogalbe", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "edcd6e8ebd927731e2bee7765a5bfe943878350dd5f2a930bc3b2907312425c2", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2025-10-01T14:29:41.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:49:13.949Z", "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:26.578Z", "statement_class": "unpriced", "status": "too_late", "cause": "counted in the restored-history series", "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": null, "display_name": "Sturm Graz v Rangers", "competition_name": "UEFA Europa League", "starts_at": "2025-10-02T19:00:00.000Z", "url": null, "scoreline": "2-1" }, "market_label": "Both teams to score", "outcome_label": "no", "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, 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"source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "found_after_match", "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null } ], "excluded_from_feed": { "ads": 19, "service": 4, "ruleset_version": "3" }, "standing": { "titles": [], "publication_mode": "top20", "empty_reason": null, "rules_version": "catalog-1", "insufficient": [], "badges_on_page": 0, "header_titles": [], "record_origin": [ { "portion": "live", "n": 4, "body": "4 recorded before kick-off · since 17 Oct 2026" }, { "portion": "archived", "n": 53, "body": "53 from the pre-match archive · 2024–2026" }, { "portion": "found_after", "n": 27, "body": "27 found after the match" } ], "recent_record": [], "record_details": [ { "code_name": "M-11", "body": "Most recorded: Match result (1X2) · 18 matches", "details_words": "Match result (1X2) 8/18 (18 matches); Correct score 3/11 (11 matches); Both teams to score 4/6 (6 matches); Goalscorer picks 0/6 (6 matches); Team goals and win to nil 2/5 (5 matches); Bet-builder combos 0/4 (4 matches); Goals over/under 1/4 (4 matches); Double chance and draw no bet 2/2 (2 matches)", "url": null, "provenance": "live+archived", "display_name": "Most recorded bet type", "rule_href": "/titles/m-11-most-recorded-bet-type/" }, { "code_name": "CS-01", "body": "Exact scores · 3/11", "details_words": "before kick-off 0/1 · archive 3/10", "url": null, "provenance": "live+archived", "display_name": "Exact scores", "rule_href": "/titles/cs-01-exact-scores/" }, { "code_name": "X-01", "body": "Longest price: correct at 3.70 · 17 Aug 2025", "details_words": "Chelsea v Crystal Palace · Draw at 3.70 (archive closing price) · from the predicted score: Correct score: Chelsea 1-1 Crystal Palace at 9", "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/picks/4/#pick-n-dbe8dcd4b7002b76d69c4d7b", "provenance": "archived", "display_name": "Correct at a long price", "rule_href": "/titles/x-01-correct-at-a-long-price/" }, { "code_name": "E-06", "body": "Non-favourite calls · 5/12", "details_words": null, "url": null, "provenance": "archived", "display_name": "Non-favourite calls", "rule_href": "/titles/e-06-non-favourite-calls/" } ], "history": [ { "code_name": "C-02", "body": "Only one right of 4 forecasters · Draw · Chelsea v Crystal Palace · 17 Aug 2025 · archive record · removed 22 Oct 2026", "event_at": "2026-10-22", "status": "corrected", "cause": "recomputed after a correction to the record", "provenance": "live" }, { "code_name": "E-07", "body": "Draw at 3.30 · Atlético Madrid v Arsenal · 29 Apr 2026 · archive record", "event_at": "2026-04-29", "status": "historical", "cause": "90 days after the event", "provenance": "archived" }, { "code_name": "CS-10", "body": "Exact score 1–1 · Atlético Madrid v Arsenal · 29 Apr 2026 · archive record", "event_at": "2026-04-29", "status": "historical", "cause": "90 days after the event", "provenance": "archived" }, { "code_name": "E-07", "body": "Draw at 3.40 · Leeds United v Brentford · 21 Mar 2026 · archive record", "event_at": "2026-03-21", "status": "historical", "cause": "90 days after the event", "provenance": "archived" }, { "code_name": "CS-10", "body": "Exact score 3–1 · Manchester City v AFC Bournemouth · 2 Nov 2025 · archive record", "event_at": "2025-11-02", "status": "historical", "cause": "90 days after the event", "provenance": "archived" }, { "code_name": "E-07", "body": "Draw at 3.70 · Chelsea v Crystal Palace · 17 Aug 2025 · archive record", "event_at": "2025-08-17", "status": "historical", "cause": "90 days after the event", "provenance": "archived" }, { "code_name": "CS-10", "body": "Exact score 0–0 · Atalanta v Arsenal · 19 Sep 2024 · archive record", "event_at": "2024-09-19", "status": "historical", "cause": "90 days after the event", "provenance": "archived" } ] }, "retro": { "restored_total": 67, "of_them_archived_pre_match": 44, "found_post_match": 23, "of_them_source_reported": 0, "live_count": 0, "date_count": 35, "span_from": "2024-10-01", "span_to": "2026-09-20", "line_text": "restored history: 67, of which pre-match archive 44", "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League, Championship, Champions League and Europa League matches between 1 October 2024 and 20 September 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 67. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 44. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 23. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.", "precision": { "n": 67, "share": "0.3881" }, "series_list": [ { "code_name": "retro_author_price", "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price", "n": 55, "roi": "17.4091", "ci_low": "-35.0490", "ci_high": "79.8246", "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "cause": null }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing", "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price", "n": 13, "roi": "0.5692", "ci_low": "-70.0000", "ci_high": "66.0500", "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "cause": null }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm", "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "n": 55, "roi": "6.7182", "ci_low": "-36.5965", "ci_high": "61.1078", "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "cause": null } ], "clv": { "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above" }, "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "leagues": [ "Premier League", "Championship", "Champions League", "Europa League" ], "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 36 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 31 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged." }, "late": null, "price_vs_market": { "contract_version": "1", "threshold_percent": "5", "rows": [ { "basis": "closing", "basis_words": "the closing market price of the same selection (restored history)", "basis_short": "Closing market price (restored)", "compared": 11, "above": 4, "above_share_percent": "36.4", "below": 1, "within": 6, "median_difference_percent": "-1.0", "not_comparable": 0, "disputed": 0, "status": "calculated", "sentence": "The author's stated price against the closing price of the same selection: median −1.0% over 11 picks. The price available to followers is the market price, shown separately." } ], "examples": [ { "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/picks/5/#pick-n-21c2c742a25e242f15dd9c1c", "basis": "closing", "stated": "2.45", "market": "3.41", "difference_percent": "-28.2" }, { "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/picks/6/#pick-n-ba24def7f132d2d4e1a7f0f1", "basis": "closing", "stated": "2.80", "market": "2.40", "difference_percent": "16.7" } ], "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way." }, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "racingpost.com", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240930195037id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/west-brom-vs-middlesbrough-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-actJA5b1dCN7/" }, "observed_from": "2026-09-28", "observed_to": "2026-10-17", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "restored": true, "headline_kind": "historical_simulation", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 44, "matches": 31, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 88100, "staked_hundredths": 440000, "return_percent": "20.02", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2024-09-14", "period_to": "2026-09-20", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "short_history": false, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 44 settled archived picks by Jack Ogalbe from copies archived before kick-off, across 31 matches between 14 September 2024 and 20 September 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned +20.0% on the total staked. Live record so far: won 0 of 3 settled live picks at our recorded market price. Of the 162 predictions we hold for Jack Ogalbe, 160 are linked to matches: 4 were recorded by us before kick-off, 105 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 51 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled archived picks", "value": "44", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": null }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "31", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "+881 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "value": "+20.0%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": "95% interval −32.9% to +86.5%" } ], "limitations": [ "This page combines Jack Ogalbe across 3 platforms. The record above counts each prediction once, even when the same pick (match, market and selection) appeared on more than one platform; each platform keeps its own total under “Where Jack Ogalbe publishes”.", "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included." ], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [ { "date": "2024-09-14", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30000, "n": 3 }, { "date": "2024-09-19", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -27500, "n": 4 }, { "date": "2024-10-01", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -13100, "n": 6 }, { "date": "2024-10-03", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 7550, "n": 8 }, { "date": "2024-10-23", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -2450, "n": 9 }, { "date": "2024-11-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7450, "n": 11 }, { "date": "2024-11-10", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -11350, "n": 13 }, { "date": "2024-12-14", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -21350, "n": 14 }, { "date": "2024-12-22", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -41350, "n": 16 }, { "date": "2025-02-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -51350, "n": 17 }, { "date": "2025-02-26", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -55050, "n": 19 }, { "date": "2025-04-07", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -41050, "n": 20 }, { "date": "2025-04-14", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -51050, "n": 21 }, { "date": "2025-05-04", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -61050, "n": 22 }, { "date": "2025-08-17", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -61550, "n": 24 }, { "date": "2025-08-19", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -49100, "n": 25 }, { "date": "2025-08-23", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -40900, "n": 26 }, { "date": "2025-08-24", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -50900, "n": 27 }, { "date": "2025-09-20", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -49900, "n": 29 }, { "date": "2025-10-02", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -58900, "n": 32 }, { "date": "2025-10-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -68900, "n": 33 }, { "date": "2025-10-18", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -78900, "n": 34 }, { "date": "2025-11-02", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 12300, "n": 35 }, { "date": "2025-11-06", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 2300, "n": 36 }, { "date": "2026-03-21", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 16300, "n": 38 }, { "date": "2026-04-29", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 89300, "n": 40 }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 79300, "n": 41 }, { "date": "2026-08-31", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 98100, "n": 43 }, { "date": "2026-09-20", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 88100, "n": 44 } ], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": { "part": "live", "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.", "settled_picks": 3, "matches": 3, "match_dates": 2, "period_from": "2026-10-17", "period_to": "2026-10-18", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": -30000, "low": { "date": "2026-10-18", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30000, "after_picks": 3 }, "high": { "date": "2026-10-17", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000, "after_picks": 1 }, "line_drawn": false, "steps": [ { "date": "2026-10-17", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000, "n": 1, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-18", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30000, "n": 3, "picks": 2 } ] }, "archived": { "part": "archived", "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.", "settled_picks": 44, "matches": 31, "match_dates": 29, "period_from": "2024-09-14", "period_to": "2026-09-20", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": 88100, "low": { "date": "2025-10-18", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -78900, "after_picks": 34 }, "high": { "date": "2026-08-31", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 98100, "after_picks": 43 }, "line_drawn": true, "steps": [ { "date": "2024-09-14", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30000, "n": 3, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2024-09-19", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -27500, "n": 4, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2024-10-01", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -13100, "n": 6, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2024-10-03", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 7550, "n": 8, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2024-10-23", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -2450, "n": 9, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2024-11-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7450, "n": 11, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2024-11-10", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -11350, "n": 13, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2024-12-14", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -21350, "n": 14, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2024-12-22", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -41350, "n": 16, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2025-02-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -51350, "n": 17, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-02-26", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -55050, "n": 19, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2025-04-07", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -41050, "n": 20, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-04-14", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -51050, "n": 21, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-05-04", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -61050, "n": 22, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-08-17", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -61550, "n": 24, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2025-08-19", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -49100, "n": 25, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-08-23", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -40900, "n": 26, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-08-24", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -50900, "n": 27, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-09-20", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -49900, "n": 29, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2025-10-02", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -58900, "n": 32, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2025-10-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -68900, "n": 33, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-10-18", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -78900, "n": 34, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-11-02", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 12300, "n": 35, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-11-06", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 2300, "n": 36, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-03-21", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 16300, "n": 38, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-04-29", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 89300, "n": 40, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 79300, "n": 41, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-08-31", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 98100, "n": 43, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-09-20", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 88100, "n": 44, "picks": 1 } ] } }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record restored 44 settled archived picks by Jack Ogalbe from copies archived before kick-off, across 31 matches between 14 September 2024 and 20 September 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned +20.0% on the total staked. Live record so far: won 0 of 3 settled live picks at our recorded market price. Of the 162 predictions we hold for Jack Ogalbe, 160 are linked to matches: 4 were recorded by us before kick-off, 105 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 51 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/jack-ogalbe/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "retro-1.1" }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 162, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 2, "proven_predictions": 109, "proven_checked": 57, "proven_measured": 50, "proven_dates": 31, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 4, "checked": 4, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": { "settled_picks": 3, "void": 0, "matches": 3, "net_points_hundredths": -30000, "staked_hundredths": 30000, "return_percent": "-100.00", "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval", "period_from": "2026-10-17", "period_to": "2026-10-18", "method_version": "2.2", "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0", "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0", "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 3 }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Closing price", "series_code": "closing_live", "picks": 2, "return_main_percent": "-100.00", "return_other_percent": "-100.00", "settled_excluding_void": 2, "net_main_points_hundredths": -20000, "net_other_points_hundredths": -20000, "period_from": "2026-10-17", "period_to": "2026-10-18" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 4, "priced": 3 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 3, "won": 0, "won_percent": "0.0", "implied_percent": "40.9", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Match result", "won": 0, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "43.1" }, { "market": "Over/under goals", "won": 0, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "44.2" }, { "market": "Result and both teams to score", "won": 0, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "35.3" } ] }, "reviewed_after": { "predictions": 1, "right": 0, "wrong": 1, "other": 0 } }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 105, "checked": 53, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": { "settled_picks": 44, "void": 0, "matches": 31, "net_points_hundredths": 88100, "staked_hundredths": 440000, "return_percent": "20.02", "interval_low": "-32.91", "interval_high": "86.48", "interval_note": null, "period_from": "2024-09-14", "period_to": "2026-09-20", "method_version": "retro-1.1" }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "retro_author_price", "picks": 34, "return_main_percent": "23.69", "return_other_percent": "35.74", "settled_excluding_void": 34, "net_main_points_hundredths": 80550, "net_other_points_hundredths": 121500, "period_from": "2024-09-14", "period_to": "2026-09-20" }, { "price": "Closing price, aggregator", "series_code": "retro_market_closing", "picks": 10, "return_main_percent": "-12.00", "return_other_percent": "-12.39", "settled_excluding_void": 10, "net_main_points_hundredths": -12000, "net_other_points_hundredths": -12395, "period_from": "2025-02-25", "period_to": "2026-08-31" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 3, "exact_hits": 2, "exact_rate": 66.7, "outcome_checked": 3, "outcome_hits": 2, "outcome_rate": 66.7, "baseline_matches": 3, "baseline_distinct_matches": 3, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 2, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 66.7, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": 0.0, "price_basis": "last pre-match archive price", "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [ "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.", "2 of 3 score forecasts named the exact score.", "The result implied by the named score was right in 2 of 3 matches; the market favourite was right in 0 of the same 3 matches.", "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).", "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)." ] }, "eligible": { "checked": 53, "priced": 44 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 44, "won": 19, "won_percent": "43.2", "implied_percent": "38.0", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Match result", "won": 8, "picks": 17, "implied_percent": "39.1" }, { "market": "Correct score", "won": 2, "picks": 9, "implied_percent": "12.6" }, { "market": "Both teams to score", "won": 4, "picks": 6, "implied_percent": "60.2" }, { "market": "Win to nil", "won": 2, "picks": 4, "implied_percent": "43.1" }, { "market": "Over/under goals", "won": 1, "picks": 3, "implied_percent": "38.9" }, { "market": "Other markets", "won": 2, "picks": 5, "implied_percent": "48.7" } ] } }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 51, "checked": 29, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": { "settled_picks": 21, "void": 0, "matches": 14, "net_points_hundredths": -104250, "staked_hundredths": 210000, "return_percent": "-49.64", "interval_low": "-100.00", "interval_high": "-0.35", "interval_note": null, "period_from": "2024-10-03", "period_to": "2026-05-15", "method_version": "retro-1.1" }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "retro_author_price", "picks": 17, "return_main_percent": "-47.32", "return_other_percent": "-45.44", "settled_excluding_void": 17, "net_main_points_hundredths": -80450, "net_other_points_hundredths": -77250, "period_from": "2024-11-27", "period_to": "2026-05-15" }, { "price": "Closing price, aggregator", "series_code": "retro_market_closing", "picks": 4, "return_main_percent": "9.25", "return_other_percent": "7.84", "settled_excluding_void": 4, "net_main_points_hundredths": 3700, "net_other_points_hundredths": 3135, "period_from": "2025-08-16", "period_to": "2026-05-15" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 1, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [ "1 score forecast is waiting for a final score." ] }, "eligible": { "checked": 29, "priced": 21 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 21, "won": 4, "won_percent": "19.0", "implied_percent": "30.1", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Correct score", "won": 0, "picks": 6, "implied_percent": "9.1" }, { "market": "Match result", "won": 2, "picks": 6, "implied_percent": "38.6" }, { "market": "Result and both teams to score", "won": 1, "picks": 4, "implied_percent": "33.6" }, { "market": "Both teams to score", "won": 1, "picks": 2, "implied_percent": "61.0" }, { "market": "Corners over/under", "won": 0, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "19.6" }, { "market": "Other markets", "won": 0, "picks": 2, "implied_percent": "34.4" } ] } } ] }, "live_alongside": { "predictions": 4, "checked": 4, "settled": 3, "won": 0, "void": 0, "checked_won": 0, "checked_settled": 4, "threshold": 10, "text": "Live record so far: won 0 of 3 settled live picks at our recorded market price." }, "headline_record_ids": [ "n-064783a8a3a36ea7dca699e1", "n-08ca6130ed046154566e547c", "n-0caa6328be94bbfbd4af5ca7", "n-118f762b83f112b09c5d0dd8", "n-18a4c3da57c7627f8a165246", "n-21c2c742a25e242f15dd9c1c", "n-21d7ed80a04cd96b2fa7f6ad", "n-2ae139dd338d68cd85817c9a", "n-322ff4dfe3ab88513a8600c1", "n-367cc2d0fd11a0e9c8f66874", "n-4915008a31c121899ea5c75e", "n-4932aba1578561e44515cbfa", "n-5413716b66ebc2ed4f510b3b", "n-54a9dbbc5078f722eb42e494", "n-555cd3eb090495b23b9ff89b", "n-5899c1db0440b2adb7e39582", "n-65e028c571d82d6ff03a3f99", "n-6601cfff9c635de2d2dfe499", "n-66feae264d1ff13b2c7454aa", "n-76e22756187dd8542a3eb187", "n-7fb1db2045b1917a942550ca", "n-86b2ca13fc252fc6883778fc", "n-8e1b1c6077aff33e1c9885fc", "n-8e8d4e8fbdc304fb29c0ae55", "n-93d0dfd48ae1fdff460431d6", "n-9567fed4032b0f8b5c8e6e6c", "n-9cf587eaf725a00a8aa18287", "n-ac3d957f8b7d018ae1eeaf0f", "n-ae8a3d294c42351065a3ebcd", "n-b2348602ef1b63c5e9eec67a", "n-b7962bd85b09bf53eef1762a", "n-b90a7a9ae5df45afaf83ec8f", "n-ba24def7f132d2d4e1a7f0f1", "n-baf53a54a7796eb3a3a46b6e", "n-c067943563958f0a7f9f5709", "n-c1e4e6aece3ee95384686228", "n-c312e70b4883659cc96c5b03", "n-c7fbd6ee4a4eaba2b3efb44f", "n-c8808ac048c444c4d5ee5bc1", "n-d48c6654165c25630183b999", "n-dbe8dcd4b7002b76d69c4d7b", "n-ed166da86febe236786989a0", "n-f514420fcd6a6213d83d5bdf", "n-fcef04c41d42b14a1042ba5f" ], "interval_low": "-32.91", "interval_high": "86.48", "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 14 September 2024 – 20 September 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1", "record_from": "2024-09-14", "record_to": "2026-10-18" }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-a47d5832f97f148b84407ec5", "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/picks/9/#pick-n-a47d5832f97f148b84407ec5", "match": "Leeds United v Manchester United", "match_url": "/football/matches/leeds-united-vs-manchester-united-2026-10-18/", "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": 21.9, "market_code": "1x2", "author_said": "1X2, match result: Leeds United", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Lost", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "1-1", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": -10000, "series_code": "market_price", "series_short": "odds snapshot", "author_price": null, "settled_price": "2.3200", "published_at": "2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-17T15:04:17.138Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": { "outcome": "1", "price": "2.3200", "result": "Lost", "points_hundredths": -10000, "picked_favourite": true }, "platform": "Football Postcast (Racing Post)", "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-a47d5832f97f148b84407ec5", "quote_text": null, "fragment_from": null, "fragment_to": null, "quote_allowed": false, "source_info": { "medium": "podcast_feed", "url": "https://audioboom.com/posts/8964251", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Jack Ogalbe", "authorship": "guest", "media_from_ms": 1477740, "bundle_id": "3b3e08f58d92b053d7a66d028dc8e16f7d624a73b64e4aa24a030c67c9655b70", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-17T15:04:17.138Z", "executed_at": "2026-10-19T04:38:08.052Z", "statement_class": "unpriced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-6b067fc4fb1f", "display_name": "Leeds United — Manchester United", "competition_name": "Premier League", "starts_at": "2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/leeds-united-vs-manchester-united-2026-10-18/", "scoreline": "1-1", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "outcome_label": "Leeds United", "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": "2.3200", "our_snapshot_at": "2026-10-17T15:01:53.763Z", "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot", "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-17T15:04:17.138Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Leeds United", "author_odds": null, "market_key": "1x2", "choice_key": "1", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "1X2, match result: Leeds United" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "1-1", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Leeds United 1-1 Manchester United." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "7ff6856534d59c2b095ba9e20f98880ad8df7acf00a90606afea3b218bef5fe6", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Leeds United", "decimal_odds": "2.3200", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-10-19T04:38:08.052Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Mark Langdon's Bets Club", "publisher": "Football Postcast (Racing Post)", "forecaster": "Jack Ogalbe", "forecaster_named_in_text": true, "basis": null, "status": "matches_source", "status_words": "Named in the source as the tipster", "status_note": null, "evidence_fragment": "I actually fancy Leeds to uh win this one.", "material_url": "https://audioboom.com/posts/8964251", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "Leeds United to win" } }, { "record_id": "n-d608dcad9edd9fa5e7fcf653", "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/picks/9/#pick-n-d608dcad9edd9fa5e7fcf653", "match": "Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace", "match_url": "/football/matches/brighton-and-hove-albion-vs-crystal-palace-2026-10-18/", "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": 21.9, "market_code": "both_teams_score_and_result", "author_said": "Match result and both teams to score: Brighton & Hove Albion win, both teams to score: yes", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Lost", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "5-0", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": -10000, "series_code": "market_price", "series_short": "odds snapshot", "author_price": null, "settled_price": "2.8350", "published_at": "2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-17T15:04:17.138Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": "Football Postcast (Racing Post)", "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-d608dcad9edd9fa5e7fcf653", "quote_text": null, "fragment_from": null, "fragment_to": null, "quote_allowed": false, "source_info": { "medium": "podcast_feed", "url": "https://audioboom.com/posts/8964251", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Jack Ogalbe", "authorship": "guest", "media_from_ms": 1395860, "bundle_id": "3b3e08f58d92b053d7a66d028dc8e16f7d624a73b64e4aa24a030c67c9655b70", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-17T15:04:17.138Z", "executed_at": "2026-10-19T04:38:09.822Z", "statement_class": "unpriced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-05714c6dccf3", "display_name": "Brighton & Hove Albion — Crystal Palace", "competition_name": "Premier League", "starts_at": "2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/brighton-and-hove-albion-vs-crystal-palace-2026-10-18/", "scoreline": "5-0", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Match result and both teams to score", "outcome_label": "Brighton & Hove Albion win, both teams to score: yes", "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": "2.8350", "our_snapshot_at": "2026-10-17T15:00:21.746Z", "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot", "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-17T15:04:17.138Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Match result and both teams to score", "choice": "Brighton & Hove Albion win, both teams to score: yes", "author_odds": null, "market_key": "both_teams_score_and_result", "choice_key": "1-yes", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Match result and both teams to score: Brighton & Hove Albion win, both teams to score: yes" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "5-0", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Brighton & Hove Albion 5-0 Crystal Palace." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "b88e0ff73848e99304a8de013a9c8109c49e7adc8488656b82e4b95f56731a0d", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Match result and both teams to score", "choice": "Brighton & Hove Albion win, both teams to score: yes", "decimal_odds": "2.8350", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-10-19T04:38:09.822Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Mark Langdon's Bets Club", "publisher": 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"checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-cf9ce2656758ec50914817d3", "quote_text": "Lyall Cameron over 0.5 shots\n5-4 bet365", "fragment_from": 2195, "fragment_to": 2234, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250819100738id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/champions-league/rangers-vs-club-brugge-predictions-team-news-betting-tips-odds-and-bet-builder-aIrvm3m45I8e/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Jack Ogalbe", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "013d5302d86a1161540e428dc6c39d2a579429c18c2cfa6f9853af634464cecc", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2025-08-18T14:46:34.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T16:01:43.727Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "too_late", "cause": "counted in the restored-history series", "cause_code": "not_supported", "event": { "event_id": null, "display_name": "Rangers v Club Brugge KV", "competition_name": "UEFA Champions League", "starts_at": "2025-08-19T19:00:00.000Z", "url": null, "scoreline": null }, "market_label": "Player shots on target over/under 0.5", "outcome_label": "Lyall Cameron over 0.5 shots on target", "odds_set": { "by_author": "2.25", "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "unknown", "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "archive_snapshot_at": "2025-08-19T10:07:38.000Z", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2025-08-18T14:46:34.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2025-08-18T14:46:34.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T16:01:43.727Z", "archive_snapshot_at": "2025-08-19T10:07:38.000Z", "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": "Added to our record on 30 Sep 2026", "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Player shots on target over/under 0.5", "choice": "Lyall Cameron over 0.5 shots on target", "author_odds": "2.25", "market_key": "player_shots", "choice_key": "over", "period": "match", "line": "0.5", "subject": "shots", "in_words": "Player shots on target over/under 0.5: Lyall Cameron over 0.5 shots on target at 2.25" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "unknown", "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "awaiting a final score for this restored pick", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Pending: awaiting a final score for this restored pick." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "98f6a9a2787d24f8bccebfa19cc2bc880b24541d13348a604b4af1f891c3a9b8", "series_key": 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"media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "d1b2348c03d203e9eea7115f1b3f71792f9a338f91aa221fa64fb94701cca55b", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2025-08-16T13:09:51.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-28T17:06:52.681Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "too_late", "cause": "counted in the restored-history series", "cause_code": "not_supported", "event": { "event_id": null, "display_name": "Chelsea v Crystal Palace", "competition_name": "Premier League", "starts_at": "2025-08-17T13:00:00.000Z", "url": null, "scoreline": null }, "market_label": "Player shots on target over/under 1.5", "outcome_label": "Cole Palmer over 1.5 shots on target", "odds_set": { "by_author": "1.5", "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "unknown", "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": "Restored, at 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"funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Jack Ogalbe", "publisher": "racingpost.com", "forecaster": "Jack Ogalbe", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/chelsea-vs-crystal-palace-predictions-team-news-betting-tips-odds-and-bet-builder-aoPl79V7EN4R/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "Cole Palmer over 1.5 shots on target" } }, { "record_id": "n-20cae8b8b9332446cfb15a05", "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/picks/4/#pick-n-20cae8b8b9332446cfb15a05", "match": "AFC Bournemouth v Manchester United", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2025-04-27T13:00:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": -12460.2, "market_code": "both_teams_score_and_result", "author_said": "Match result and both teams to score: AFC Bournemouth win, both teams to score: no at 3.3", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "counted in the restored-history series", "reason_code": "disputed_reading", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-04-26T12:21:44.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T17:11:09.408Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": { "at": "2026-09-29T01:05:09.327Z", "field": "market", "reason": "The quotation says “win to nil”, but the market was recorded as draw no bet. It is now read by the subject of the quotation: a win with the other side not scoring. This pick was never executed, so no number changes.", "version": 4, "url": "/corrections/#c-296060c0ebe0", "text": "Corrected on 29 September 2026: The quotation says “win to nil”, but the market was recorded as draw no bet. It is now read by the subject of the quotation: a win with the other side not scoring. 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It is now read by the subject of the quotation: a win with the other side not scoring. This pick was never executed, so no number changes." } ], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Jack Ogalbe", "publisher": "racingpost.com", "forecaster": "Jack Ogalbe", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/bournemouth-man-utd-predictions-betting-tips-odds-apKEC9g1WPNG/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": { "at": "2026-09-29T01:05:09.327Z", "field": "market", "reason": "The quotation says “win to nil”, but the market was recorded as draw no bet. It is now read by the subject of the quotation: a win with the other side not scoring. This pick was never executed, so no number changes.", "version": 4, "url": "/corrections/#c-296060c0ebe0", "text": "Corrected on 29 September 2026: The quotation says “win to nil”, but the market was recorded as draw no bet. It is now read by the subject of the quotation: a win with the other side not scoring. This pick was never executed, so no " }, "choice_words": "AFC Bournemouth win, both teams to score: no" } }, { "record_id": "n-a643a164ca10b12a62dbd40d", "url": null, "match": "Arsenal v Manchester United", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2024-12-04T20:15:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": -15955.3, "market_code": "correct_score_market", "author_said": "Correct score: Arsenal 2-1 Manchester United", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "counted in the restored-history series", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2024-12-03T15:46:41.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:32:41.097Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, 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"excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-04-26T12:21:44.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T17:11:09.408Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-8bcf178b1da4b1aadef3fe81", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Justin Kluivert to score", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-04-26T12:21:44.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T17:11:09.408Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-030cd0e34a999ba6987f6a35", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Sasa Lukic to be booked", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-04-13T17:04:59.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T17:11:43.153Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-45decbe87586fcb2ea962bc0", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Rodrigo Muniz to score", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-04-13T17:04:59.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T17:11:43.153Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-6ceab7b73036afe12643b703", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Boubakary Soumare to be booked", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-04-06T15:28:41.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T18:09:02.977Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-7b183953810cfe80d5234df3", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Bruno Guimaraes 2+ tackles\nThe Brazilian midfielder averages 2.1 tackles per game", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-03-09T16:15:47.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T18:11:08.640Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-f1c4c16b6f584fdeb5378a08", "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/picks/5/#pick-n-f1c4c16b6f584fdeb5378a08", "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Under 2 Brentford cards", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-02-25T16:44:36.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T17:12:58.822Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": { "at": "2026-10-14T02:00:56.494Z", "field": "line sign", "reason": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes.", "version": 2, "url": "/corrections/#c-f1b2048399e9", "text": "Corrected on 14 October 2026: Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and" }, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-f1c4c16b6f584fdeb5378a08", "quote_text": "Under 2 Brentford cards", "fragment_from": 5705, "fragment_to": 5728, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250225172309id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/brentford-everton-predictions-betting-tips-odds-a0Xum8L8aq1F/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Jack Ogalbe", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "be57d4a5afd28e3e08faaaeae8ee65786d5bce3b08d941afde2107a882f878ae", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2025-02-25T16:44:36.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-28T17:12:58.822Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "unpriced", "status": "too_late", "cause": "", "cause_code": "too_late", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2025-02-25T16:44:36.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2025-02-25T16:44:36.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-28T17:12:58.822Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [ { "at": "2026-10-14T02:00:56.494Z", "field_name": "line sign", "was": "Over/Under −2 cards · under −2", "now": "Over/Under 2 cards · under 2", "cause": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes." } ], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": { "at": "2026-10-14T02:00:56.494Z", "field": "line sign", "reason": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes.", "version": 2, "url": "/corrections/#c-f1b2048399e9", "text": "Corrected on 14 October 2026: Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and" }, "choice_words": "a pick" } }, { "record_id": "n-2e8bc89a25147f3d90524b31", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Beto to score", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-02-25T16:44:36.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T17:12:58.822Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-393a7862c0fdc49a4fbc7847", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Sasa Lukic to be booked", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-02-24T16:50:49.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T18:12:33.072Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-84437abe949740019bc497e8", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Ipswich to stay up\n1pt 13-8 bet365", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-01-02T15:10:15.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:20:34.385Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null } ], "lead_time": { "contract_version": 1, "threshold_hours": 2.0, "picks": 103, "before_kickoff": 4, "after_kickoff": 99, "at_least_2h": 3, "share_2h_plus": 2.9, "median_hours": 21.9, "min_hours": 1.4, "max_hours": 24.4, "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off." }, "baseline": { "contract_version": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "rule": "recorded-line-1.0", "state": "settled", "picks": 1, "settled_picks_all": 3, "excluded": { "market_without_favourite": 1, "no_recorded_line": 1, "favourite_not_settled": 0 }, "staked_hundredths": 10000, "author_net_hundredths": -10000, "favourite_net_hundredths": -10000, "difference_hundredths": 0, "author_return_percent": -100.0, "favourite_return_percent": -100.0, "author_hit_rate": 0.0, "favourite_hit_rate": 0.0, "picked_favourite_share": 100.0, "by_market": [ { "market_code": "1x2", "picks": 1, "staked_hundredths": 10000, "author_net_hundredths": -10000, "favourite_net_hundredths": -10000, "author_hits": 0, "favourite_hits": 0, "picked_favourite": 1, "author_return_percent": -100.0, "favourite_return_percent": -100.0 } ], "return_over_time": [ { "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -10000, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -10000 } ], "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out." }, "pagination": { "per_page": 20, "total": 162, "pages": 10, "page_urls": [ "/authors/jack-ogalbe/", "/authors/jack-ogalbe/picks/2/", "/authors/jack-ogalbe/picks/3/", "/authors/jack-ogalbe/picks/4/", "/authors/jack-ogalbe/picks/5/", "/authors/jack-ogalbe/picks/6/", "/authors/jack-ogalbe/picks/7/", "/authors/jack-ogalbe/picks/8/", "/authors/jack-ogalbe/picks/9/", "/authors/jack-ogalbe/picks/10/" ], "groups": { "settled": 83, "pending": 0, "excluded": 79 }, "continuation": "by_time", "page": 1, "first": 1, "last": 20, "author_url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/", "current": false }, "title_tag": "Jack Ogalbe Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources", "calculator": null, "person": { "person_id": "o-86c570796115581e91d8e588", "type_code": "individual", "name_shown": "Jack Ogalbe", "main_entity": "e-86c570796115581e91d8e588", "identity": { "status": "verified_identity", "is_verified": true, "when": "2026-10-11", "source_list": [ { "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/authors/jack-ogalbe/", "what": "«Jack has been a sports journalist for over 15 years and specialises in football, rugby union and cycling tipping.»" } ] }, "platform_list": [ { "entity_ref": "e-86c570796115581e91d8e588", "medium": "Racing Post", "channel": "section pages", "domain": "racingpost.com", "source_info": "racing-post", "byline": "Jack Ogalbe", "url": "/sources/racing-post/", "summary": { "statements": 380, "predictions": 142, "settled_picks": 39, "headline_kind": "historical_simulation", "return_percent": 23.38, "headline_part": "archived", "period_from": "2026-09-28", "period_to": "2026-10-02" } }, { "entity_ref": "e-7df8c7857e5a00c8af3a8e9d", "medium": "LiveScore", "channel": "section pages", "domain": "livescore.com", "source_info": "livescore", "byline": "Jack Ogalbe", "url": null, "summary": { "statements": 73, "predictions": 12, "settled_picks": 5, "headline_kind": "historical_simulation", "return_percent": -6.2, "headline_part": "archived", "period_from": "2026-10-09", "period_to": "2026-10-13" } }, { "entity_ref": "e-f6788d2f7511edf8b2948192", "medium": "Football Postcast (Racing Post)", "channel": "podcast", "domain": "audioboom.com", "source_info": "audioboom-com", "byline": "Jack Ogalbe", "url": "/sources/audioboom-com/", "summary": { "statements": 8, "predictions": 8, "settled_picks": 3, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "return_percent": -100.0, "headline_part": "live", "period_from": "2026-10-17", "period_to": "2026-10-17" } } ], "previously": [], "trust_tier": "tracked" }, "data_revision": { "data_version": "2026-10-22.3", "updated": "2026-10-22", "current_release": "2026-11-07.2", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "price_rule": "reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "sample": { "settled_picks": 44, "matches": 31, "void": 0, "period_from": "2024-09-14", "period_to": "2026-09-20", "composition_hash": "a25b9e997920a7754c5c4c1dfd1c70418936421dc7b87c962355115155796032" }, "changes_url": "#changes", "corrections_url": "/corrections/" }, "number_changes": [ { "id": "zc-b5741f65d3ba1884323f", "at": "2026-10-22T09:54:30.278Z", "data_version": "2026-10-22.3", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-22.2", "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/", "category": "data_corrected", "category_words": "Data corrected", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-22.2", "return_percent": "12.12", "settled_picks": 50, "matches": 35, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "a7ddc8c92373e7f2827b3811d75193615f143666c61df4c5a2c345e1adad65e9", "text": "+12.12% on 50 settled picks across 35 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-22.3", "return_percent": "20.02", "settled_picks": 44, "matches": 31, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "a25b9e997920a7754c5c4c1dfd1c70418936421dc7b87c962355115155796032", "text": "+20.02% on 44 settled picks across 31 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Data corrected: 5 picks left the headline sample.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 0, "removed": 5, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-6d7a7311d374ad2aa9c7" }, { "id": "zc-2093a1dc65d158e0edbc", "at": "2026-10-22T05:56:36.122Z", "data_version": "2026-10-22.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-22.1", "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-19.6", "return_percent": "20.02", "settled_picks": 44, "matches": 31, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "a25b9e997920a7754c5c4c1dfd1c70418936421dc7b87c962355115155796032", "text": "+20.02% on 44 settled picks across 31 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-22.2", "return_percent": "12.12", "settled_picks": 50, "matches": 35, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "a7ddc8c92373e7f2827b3811d75193615f143666c61df4c5a2c345e1adad65e9", "text": "+12.12% on 50 settled picks across 35 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Added 5 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 5, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-8435074367a395fde605", "at": "2026-10-19T19:39:27.559Z", "data_version": "2026-10-19.6", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-19.5", "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/", "category": "data_corrected", "category_words": "Data corrected", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-18.3", "return_percent": "11.27", "settled_picks": 49, "matches": 35, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "368484c3249c12353bac806fa7e5e285e8fb0c1d9449d01dcb0639bf30414b3b", "text": "+11.27% on 49 settled picks across 35 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-19.6", "return_percent": "20.02", "settled_picks": 44, "matches": 31, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "a25b9e997920a7754c5c4c1dfd1c70418936421dc7b87c962355115155796032", "text": "+20.02% on 44 settled picks across 31 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Data corrected: 5 picks left the headline sample.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 0, "removed": 5, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-3699cd6cbe2fc1532dac" }, { "id": "zc-581170788f375240832e", "at": "2026-10-18T04:18:28.335Z", "data_version": "2026-10-18.3", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-18.2", "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/", "category": "data_corrected", "category_words": "Data corrected", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-18.2", "return_percent": "12.12", "settled_picks": 50, "matches": 35, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "9b2ae461f442ed2359012753fbb9ec39b47678c1b21d3662b2f28001aded0103", "text": "+12.12% on 50 settled picks across 35 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-18.3", "return_percent": "11.27", "settled_picks": 49, "matches": 35, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "368484c3249c12353bac806fa7e5e285e8fb0c1d9449d01dcb0639bf30414b3b", "text": "+11.27% on 49 settled picks across 35 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 0, "removed": 1, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-95d1cc464b030f098f8b" }, { "id": "zc-20da11769a1831b43720", "at": "2026-10-18T03:29:01.089Z", "data_version": "2026-10-18.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-18.1", "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-16.5", "return_percent": "11.27", "settled_picks": 49, "matches": 35, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "368484c3249c12353bac806fa7e5e285e8fb0c1d9449d01dcb0639bf30414b3b", "text": "+11.27% on 49 settled picks across 35 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-18.2", "return_percent": "12.12", "settled_picks": 50, "matches": 35, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "9b2ae461f442ed2359012753fbb9ec39b47678c1b21d3662b2f28001aded0103", "text": "+12.12% on 50 settled picks across 35 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-96270c93b490c3fd4763", "at": "2026-10-16T17:26:36.835Z", "data_version": "2026-10-16.5", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-16.4", "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/", "category": "data_corrected", "category_words": "Data corrected", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-13.3", "return_percent": "16.79", "settled_picks": 48, "matches": 33, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "3432231d4c38d6abbdbc4d2b1804f7353ffa76080ca6dbe3a1e485e5abcaa5a4", "text": "+16.79% on 48 settled picks across 33 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-16.5", "return_percent": "11.27", "settled_picks": 49, "matches": 35, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "368484c3249c12353bac806fa7e5e285e8fb0c1d9449d01dcb0639bf30414b3b", "text": "+11.27% on 49 settled picks across 35 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample; 2 picks added.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 1, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-8b274d65e21de80fcb8e" }, { "id": "zc-2a3d0dd5c46429000360", "at": "2026-10-13T14:04:45.283Z", "data_version": "2026-10-13.3", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-13.2", "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.2", "return_percent": "19.47", "settled_picks": 43, "matches": 29, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "c5ec4dbb81481fbf661cf640da9121adee294cb033a9e11f5beae9b4da7c5ec6", "text": "+19.47% on 43 settled picks across 29 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-13.3", "return_percent": "16.79", "settled_picks": 48, "matches": 33, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "3432231d4c38d6abbdbc4d2b1804f7353ffa76080ca6dbe3a1e485e5abcaa5a4", "text": "+16.79% on 48 settled picks across 33 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Added 5 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 5, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-53b249646b2abda3e8f0", "at": "2026-10-09T12:49:36.723Z", "data_version": "2026-10-09.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/", "category": "method_changed", "category_words": "Method changed", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "return_percent": "3.90", "settled_picks": 55, "matches": 37, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "27ff441dfd8dba5b27a795ec9bd5b4b0b90f33197a85f78adfc25e3a1be4df70", "text": "+3.90% on 55 settled picks across 37 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.2", "return_percent": "19.47", "settled_picks": 43, "matches": 29, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "c5ec4dbb81481fbf661cf640da9121adee294cb033a9e11f5beae9b4da7c5ec6", "text": "+19.47% on 43 settled picks across 29 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, a historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first found after the match no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (55 settled picks). Now: historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (43 settled picks).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 5, "removed": 17, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-177b16eb7529f43febd9" }, { "id": "zc-394c60b6672c145f40a3", "at": "2026-10-09T11:08:54.367Z", "data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-09-30.1", "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-09-30.1", "return_percent": "-8.73", "settled_picks": 33, "matches": 22, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "54e8279fe2b3ba20a499c627adf21e89b26df275350ce0818276c462e097bf26", "text": "−8.73% on 33 settled picks across 22 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "return_percent": "3.90", "settled_picks": 55, "matches": 37, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "27ff441dfd8dba5b27a795ec9bd5b4b0b90f33197a85f78adfc25e3a1be4df70", "text": "+3.90% on 55 settled picks across 37 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Added 22 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 22, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null } ], "author_card": { "body": "Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 162 predictions · last change 17 October 2026", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/jack-ogalbe/", "s": "2026-09-28", "prediction_count": 162, "refreshed_at": "2026-10-17", "html": "Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 162 predictions · last change 17 October 2026" }, "trust": { "tier": "tracked", "in_words": "Tracked", "settled_count": 57, "days": 765, "weeks": 24, "archive": false, "in_review": false, "own_page": true, "won_count": 21, "first_settled_on": "2024-09-14", "products_in_level": 1, "rule": { "tracked": { "min_settled": 30, "min_days": 30, "min_distinct_weeks": 2, "no_violations": true }, "established": { "min_settled": 100, "min_days": 90 } }, "show": true }, "colleagues": [ { "source_code": "racing-post", "source_name": "Racing Post", "source_url": "/sources/racing-post/", "label": "Also at Racing Post", "authors_total": 15, "authors": [ { "name": "James Milton", "url": "/authors/james-milton/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 124, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Liam Flin", "url": "/authors/liam-flin/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 58, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Ian Wilkerson", "url": "/authors/ian-wilkerson/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 37, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Dan Childs", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 24, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Joe Casey", "url": "/authors/joe-casey/", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 19, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Aaron Ashley", "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 15, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "James Mason", "url": "/authors/james-mason/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 14, "return_percent": "16.1", "small_sample": false, "average_odds": "4.00", "odds_from_author": 10, "odds_from_snapshot": 4 }, { "name": "Steve Davies", "url": "/authors/steve-davies/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 14, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Jamie Griffith", "url": "/authors/jamie-griffith/", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 12, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Tom Hill", "url": "/authors/tom-hill/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 11, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Tom McGarry", "url": "/authors/tom-mcgarry/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 11, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Alex Wrigley", "url": "/authors/alex-wrigley/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 7, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null } ] } ], "author_type": "Pundit", "data_changes": { "added_later": "33 records added on 28 Sep 2026 from archived copies; 29 records added on 28 Sep 2026 found after the match; 14 records added on 1 Oct 2026 from archived copies; 41 more records added on other dates. The current numbers include them; numbers published earlier, including the record before each match, do not change.", "records_corrected": 3, "last_correction_at": "2026-10-22T09:54:30.278Z", "corrections_url": "/corrections/", "text": "3 records shown here have been corrected; the last correction was on 22 October 2026, with its reason in the corrections log." }, "entity_id": "person:o-86c570796115581e91d8e588", "source_revision": 207, "related": [ { "url": "/cards/e-86c570796115581e91d8e588-bank/", "name": "Bankroll card — Jack Ogalbe", "detail": null, "source_group": "cards" }, { "url": "/cards/e-86c570796115581e91d8e588-said-vs-happened/", "name": "Said → happened — Jack Ogalbe", "detail": null, "source_group": "cards" }, { "url": "/for-authors/jack-ogalbe/", "name": "Your record on Forecast Record: Jack Ogalbe", "detail": null, "source_group": "for_authors" } ], "number_sets": [ { "set": "profile.settled", "entity": "e-86c570796115581e91d8e588", "value": 83, "where": "coverage", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.predictions", "entity": "e-86c570796115581e91d8e588", "value": 162, "where": "coverage", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.predictions", "entity": "e-86c570796115581e91d8e588", "value": 162, "where": "picks", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.part.live", "entity": "e-86c570796115581e91d8e588", "value": 3, "where": "origin", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.part.archived", "entity": "e-86c570796115581e91d8e588", "value": 44, "where": "origin-archived", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.part.found_after", "entity": "e-86c570796115581e91d8e588", "value": 21, "where": null, "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.checked.live", "entity": "e-86c570796115581e91d8e588", "value": 4, "where": "origin", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.checked.archived", "entity": "e-86c570796115581e91d8e588", "value": 53, "where": "origin-archived", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.window", "entity": "e-86c570796115581e91d8e588", "value": 3, "where": "calculation", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "label": true }, { "set": "profile.checked", "entity": "e-86c570796115581e91d8e588", "value": 57, "where": "trust-level", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "label": true } ] }