Bren Gray: football tipster record

Where Bren Gray publishes

Published under this name on bettingtop10.co.nz.

Record card

To link to this record from your site or bio, copy the line below. It states only the facts of this record.

<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/authors/bren-gray/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 621 predictions · last change 5 November 2026</a>

Recorded before kick-off: supporting evidence

Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.

How the market price is set

Recorded before kick-off, graded after the match

27 predictions recorded before kick-off. Right in 14 of 27.

Prices implied by market

By market: Result and both teams to score 2 of 6 (2 W / 4 L, average odds 2.91) Small sample (6); Match result 1 of 5 (1 W / 4 L, average odds 3.26) Small sample (5); Over/under goals 4 of 5 (4 W / 1 L, average odds 2.24) Small sample (5); Both teams to score 1 of 2 (1 W / 1 L, average odds 1.54) Small sample (2); Correct score 0 of 2 (0 W / 2 L, average odds 11.12) Small sample (2); Other markets 2 of 4 (2 W / 2 L) Small sample (4).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Score forecasts without a betting market price

Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.

1 of 22 score forecasts named the exact score (4.5%).

The result implied by the named score was right in 6 of 17 matches; the market favourite was right in 8 of the same 17 matches.

A pre-match market favourite is known for 17 of 22 forecasts; the comparison uses only those.

The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.

The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).

Archived before kick-off · 2 settled archived picks · won 1 of 2

Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.

3 predictions; 2 checked against the final score.

2 settled selections across 2 matches, 8–9 August 2025.

Reconstructed at archived prices: +550 points.

Eligible prices were available for 2 of the 2 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 1 of 2 decided picks; the prices of the same picks implied 12.1%.

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Found after kick-off · 213 settled after-match picks · −10.4%

First Found after kick-off; the date is the one the source states.

523 predictions; 283 checked against the final score.

213 settled selections across 147 matches, 6 April 2025 – 20 September 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −10.4% (95.0% interval −28.5% to +7.3%).

Eligible prices were available for 213 of the 283 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 84 of 213 decided picks (39.4%); the prices of the same picks implied 40.9%.

By market: Result and both teams to score 2 of 6 (2 W / 4 L, average odds 2.91) Small sample (6); Match result 1 of 5 (1 W / 4 L, average odds 3.26) Small sample (5); Over/under goals 4 of 5 (4 W / 1 L, average odds 2.24) Small sample (5); Both teams to score 1 of 2 (1 W / 1 L, average odds 1.54) Small sample (2); Correct score 0 of 2 (0 W / 2 L, average odds 11.12) Small sample (2); Other markets 2 of 4 (2 W / 2 L) Small sample (4).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.

Score forecasts without a betting market price

Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.

2 of 55 score forecasts named the exact score (3.6%).

The result implied by the named score was right in 30 of 55 matches; the market favourite was right in 34 of the same 55 matches.

The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).

The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).

These forecasts were Found after kick-off; when they were made depends on the date the source gives.

Record details and history

Record details

• Most recorded: Correct score · 22 matches

  Correct score 3/22 (22 matches); Match result (1X2) 3/10 (10 matches); Goals over/under 8/9 (8 matches); Bet-builder combos 3/7 (7 matches); Both teams to score 5/7 (7 matches); Team goals and win to nil 0/3 (3 matches); Goalscorer picks 2/2 (2 matches); Handicaps 1/1 (1 match)

  Most recorded bet type: the rule

• Exact scores · 3/22

  before kick-off 2/20 · archive 1/2

  Exact scores: the rule

• Minority calls · 0/1

  Result calls on matches with at least 8 other tipsters and sources, where at least 60.0% of them named another outcome.

  Minority calls: the rule

• Longest price: correct at 2.45 · 20 Oct 2026

  Paris Saint-Germain v FC Barcelona · Home win at 2.45 (our pre-match price) · from the predicted score: Correct score: Paris Saint-Germain 3-2 FC Barcelona

  Correct at a long price: the rule

Each title is a fact about past picks, by published rules. How titles work

Are you Bren Gray? Show your titles on your site → · Confirm it's you

What kind of number is this?

Measured

Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; our pre-match market snapshot of each settled pick; the time of each pre-match web-archive copy.

Stated

The author’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.

Calculated

Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.

Unknown

Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published.

The four data statuses

What this record covers

We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything Bren Gray has published.

Source we monitor

bettingtop10.co.nz

Channels

website

Watched by us

28 September – 5 November 2026

Earlier entries

restored from archives, back to 6 April 2025

Without a match page

16 predictions

Stated price vs market

How the prices this author stated compare with an independent market price of the same selection. Calculated from the picks where both prices are known; a gap can come from market movement or from one bookmaker offering more than the market, so it describes the stated prices, not the reason for them.

Our market price when we first recorded the pick — our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off); Closing market price (restored) — the closing market price of the same selection (restored history). Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5.0% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way. The closing price is the final price before kick-off. The price when the pick was published is unknown for restored history, so this row shows the distance to where the market closed. 2 pairs left out: the prices differ more than twofold.

Pre-match close: the last market price for the same selection before kick-off. Definition.

Largest gaps: 1.75 against 2.20 (−20.5%) · 2.15 against 2.70 (−20.4%) · 2.80 against 2.20 (+27.3%) · 1.72 against 1.45 (+18.2%)

Author's response

No author's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.

Respond or request a correction

Coverage and exclusions

One set of records: the author’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.

Statements

2,029

Predictions

621

Qualifying picks

336

Settled picks

255

Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.

Statements that are not predictions: 386 opinions and 1,022 not about a match.

How this return was calculated

Every settled pick in “Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price” is a stake of 100 points at our recorded market price, a pre-match snapshot of the same selection. The net result (−99.94 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 24 settled live picks; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (2,400 points), void picks excluded. Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.

Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.

Separate comparison window — last 90 days: −4.2% on 24 live picks settled in this window · 20 matches · 10 October – 7 November 2026 (calculated, method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted

Changes to this record

Earlier figures stay here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.

New results · 7 November 2026

Before

−6.8% on 23 settled picks across 19 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (23)

After

−4.2% on 24 settled picks across 20 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (24)

1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous record update.

New results · 5 November 2026

Before

+0.5% on 19 settled picks across 16 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (19)

After

−6.8% on 23 settled picks across 19 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (23)

4 new settled picks from matches played after the previous record update.

Coverage extended · 2 November 2026

Before

+6.1% on 18 settled picks across 15 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (18)

After

+0.5% on 19 settled picks across 16 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (19)

Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Coverage extended · 1 November 2026

Before

−9.1% on 16 settled picks across 14 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (16)

After

+6.1% on 18 settled picks across 15 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (18)

Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

New results · 31 October 2026

Before

−40.5% on 12 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (12)

After

−9.1% on 16 settled picks across 14 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (16)

4 new settled picks from matches played after the previous record update.

New results · 29 October 2026

Before

−50.9% on 10 settled picks across 9 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (10)

After

−40.5% on 12 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (12)

2 new settled picks from matches played after the previous record update.

Method changed · 28 October 2026

Before

+550.00 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−50.9% on 10 settled picks across 9 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (10)

The headline rule changed on 14 October 2026: the live record at our recorded market price becomes the headline number from 10 settled picks; until then the headline is the record restored from pre-match archive copies, and the live record so far is shown beside it. Was: reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (2 settled picks). Now: independent odds snapshot (10 settled picks).

Archived before kick-off: restored later from a copy that an independent web archive saved before the match started. Definition.

Method changed · 14 October 2026

Before

−300.00 points on 3 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

After

+550.00 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

The headline rule changed on 14 October 2026: the live record at our recorded market price becomes the headline number from 10 settled picks; until then the headline is the record restored from pre-match archive copies, and the live record so far is shown beside it. Was: independent odds snapshot (3 settled picks). Now: reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (2 settled picks).

New results · 11 October 2026

Before

−200.00 points on 2 settled picks across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

After

−300.00 points on 3 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous record update.

Method changed · 10 October 2026

Before

+550.00 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−200.00 points on 2 settled picks across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

The headline number is now calculated in a different series: “independent odds snapshot” (2 settled picks) instead of “reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only” (2 settled picks). The series is chosen by the published rule; the earlier figure is kept here.

Method changed · 9 October 2026

Before

−1.9% on 249 settled picks across 165 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

+550.00 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first Found after kick-off no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (249 settled picks). Now: reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (2 settled picks).

Coverage extended · 9 October 2026

Before

−6.4% on 197 settled picks across 130 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−1.9% on 249 settled picks across 165 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 52 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Who this is

Last recorded by us

5 November 2026, 2 days before this page's data date

Observed

28 September 2026 — 5 November 2026

Channels

website

Statements other than predictions (58 shown)

• “I just can’t trust them at home in the league.” — 5 November 2026, 21:37 GMT · source
• “I’m less sure about them on the road.” — 5 November 2026, 21:37 GMT · source
• “My real fear is a scrappy 0-0 or 1-1, where Sunderland’s Thursday legs hold up better than I expect” — 5 November 2026, 21:37 GMT · source
• “Under 2.5 goals tempted me at $2.00, but Estevao could turn this into a three-goal game” — 5 November 2026, 21:37 GMT · source
• “On goals, both teams to score at $1.50 looks right to me, but it’s too short to bother with.” — 5 November 2026, 21:45 GMT · source
• “I’m happy to oppose Man United at $2.20.” — 5 November 2026, 21:45 GMT · source
• “My pick in this Crystal Palace vs Liverpool preview pairs a Liverpool win with a goals line” — 5 November 2026, 19:44 GMT · source
• “The danger is an early Forest goal. City conceded inside 15 minutes against Brighton, and a scrappy goal from a corner is how a team in Forest’s spot usually ends a drought like this. I wouldn’t be stunned by a 1-1, the exact result that sinks this bet.” — 4 November 2026, 21:01 GMT · source
• “I did think about Haaland to score, but his price is too short to get excited about.” — 4 November 2026, 21:01 GMT · source
• “Over 2.5 goals at $1.62 doesn’t appeal to me either.” — 4 November 2026, 21:01 GMT · source
• “I’ve steered clear of the match result in this Nottingham Forest vs Man City preview.” — 4 November 2026, 21:01 GMT · source
• “Over 2.5 goals at $1.68 feels about right to me. A 2-1 gets you there, but so many of Fulham’s games have been tight that I’m happy to pass on it.” — 4 November 2026, 20:50 GMT · source
• “I’m not confident enough to back Fulham at $2.07.” — 4 November 2026, 20:50 GMT · source
• “I wouldn’t talk anyone out of the draw at $4.60.” — 3 November 2026, 22:18 GMT · source
• “City are still the right favourites for me” — 3 November 2026, 22:18 GMT · source
• “I doubt William Saliba starts after nearly four months out” — 3 November 2026, 22:26 GMT · source
• “Over 2.5 goals at $1.55 is too short for me.” — 3 November 2026, 22:26 GMT · source
• “I can’t get excited about Arsenal at $1.25” — 3 November 2026, 22:26 GMT · source
• “I’m not keen on a standalone goals bet either. Under 2.5 is short, and Everton’s home games haven” — 3 November 2026, 22:35 GMT · source
• “A 1-1 has crossed my mind more than once this week. But Coventry haven’t drawn in nine attempts” — 3 November 2026, 22:35 GMT · source

• Predicted Lineup: Penders; Acheampong, Fofana, Colwill; Neto, Caicedo, Lavia, Chavarria; Estevao

  5 Nov 2026, 21:37 GMT · Source

• Team News: Joao Pedro, James and Lacroix are out, as is Gittens. Emiliano Martinez and Caicedo

  5 Nov 2026, 21:37 GMT · Source

• Predicted Lineup: Roefs; Hume, Danso, O’Nien, Reinildo; Xhaka, Sadiki; Rigg, Le Fee, Talbi; Brobbey

  5 Nov 2026, 21:37 GMT · Source

• Team News: Alderete is suspended and Ballard is out. Diarra and Mundle are also missing

  5 Nov 2026, 21:37 GMT · Source

• Team News: Cash is suspended. Onana and Ruggeri are out, and Wan-Bissaka is a doubt.

  5 Nov 2026, 21:45 GMT · Source

• Team News: Martinez is suspended. Sesko, Shaw and Ugarte are out, while Baleba, Rashford and Dorgu are doubts.

  5 Nov 2026, 21:45 GMT · Source

• Predicted Lineup: Alisson; Araujo, Jacquet, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Szoboszlai, Mac Allister; Gakpo, Wirtz, Barcola; Isak.

  5 Nov 2026, 19:44 GMT · Source

• Team News: Frimpong, Bradley, Ekitike and Leoni are out. Gravenberch is a doubt.

  5 Nov 2026, 19:44 GMT · Source

• Predicted Lineup: Henderson; Canvot, Disasi, Richards; Mingueza, Wharton, Kamada, Mitchell; Pino, McNeil; Strand Larsen.

  5 Nov 2026, 19:44 GMT · Source

• Team News: Mateta is suspended. Sarr, Tomiyasu and Riad are out.

  5 Nov 2026, 19:44 GMT · Source

• Rotation could play a part. City had no fresh injury worries before their trip to Germany, but they’ll arrive in Nottingham three days after a Champions League away game, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few changes.

  4 Nov 2026, 21:01 GMT · Source

• Erling Haaland is the reason I can’t give Forest much of a chance.

  4 Nov 2026, 21:01 GMT · Source

• Predicted Lineup: Sels; Cunha, Milenkovic, Murillo; Aina, McAtee, Schlager, Williams; Ndoye, Gibbs-White; Delap.

  4 Nov 2026, 21:01 GMT · Source

• Team News: Savona and Igor Jesus are out, as is Dominguez.

  4 Nov 2026, 21:01 GMT · Source

• Team News: Ramsey is suspended and Jaouen is out.

  4 Nov 2026, 20:50 GMT · Source

• Team News: Sessegnon is back from a three-match ban.

  4 Nov 2026, 20:50 GMT · Source

• Team News: Semenyo is out.

  3 Nov 2026, 22:18 GMT · Source

• Team News: Guiu and Ouedraogo are out. Esteve and Nkunku are doubts.

  3 Nov 2026, 22:18 GMT · Source

• Team News: Saka is out. Eze is a doubt. Saliba is available again after his back injury.

  3 Nov 2026, 22:26 GMT · Source

• Team News: Chory and Schranz are out. Provod and N’Guessan are doubts.

  3 Nov 2026, 22:26 GMT · Source

• Predicted Lineup: Rushworth; Van Ewijk, Mfuni, Pinnock, Dasilva; Yirenkyi, Torp; Sakamoto, Rudoni

  3 Nov 2026, 22:35 GMT · Source

• Team News: Wright, Woolfenden, Eccles and Amenda are out. Thomas is a doubt.

  3 Nov 2026, 22:35 GMT · Source

• Predicted Lineup: Pickford; O’Brien, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Armstrong, Garner; Rohl

  3 Nov 2026, 22:35 GMT · Source

• Team News: Grealish’s availability is unclear after a disciplinary issue. Everton have no injury

  3 Nov 2026, 22:35 GMT · Source

• My best bet is priced at around $3, and it needs a home side that doesn’t give much away.

  3 Nov 2026, 22:35 GMT · Source

• This is the first ever meeting between Fenerbahce and Liverpool.

  3 Nov 2026, 22:06 GMT · Source

• Sports Mole thinks Lewis Koumas could come in up front, and with Crystal Palace away on Sunday, I can see some rotation.

  3 Nov 2026, 22:06 GMT · Source

• Predicted Lineup: Ederson; Semedo, Skriniar, Brown, Mercan; Kante, Guendouzi; Aydin, Kahveci, Akturkoglu; Lukaku.

  3 Nov 2026, 22:06 GMT · Source

• Team News: Asensio and Oosterwolde are out, as is Oppong. Ake is a doubt.

  3 Nov 2026, 22:06 GMT · Source

• Dirk Kuyt was named Fenerbahce’s interim head coach last week after Ismail Kartal resigned.

  3 Nov 2026, 22:06 GMT · Source

• I don’t trust them to do much more than nick a goal

  3 Nov 2026, 22:06 GMT · Source

• I wouldn’t write them off at home.

  3 Nov 2026, 22:06 GMT · Source

• My main bet in this Fenerbahce vs Liverpool preview is a two-leg combo

  3 Nov 2026, 22:06 GMT · Source

• Team News: Saka and Saliba are out. Dowman is suspended. Calafiori, Rice, Madueke and Tzolis are doubts.

  29 Oct 2026, 19:38 GMT · Source

• Team News: Szoboszlai, Frimpong, Bradley, Leoni and Ekitike are out. Munoz is a doubt.

  29 Oct 2026, 19:38 GMT · Source

• but I can’t bring myself to back Liverpool at $3.20 with their home record what it is.

  29 Oct 2026, 19:38 GMT · Source

• I wouldn’t be shocked if Arsenal nicked it 1-0 from a set piece

  29 Oct 2026, 19:38 GMT · Source

• Under 2.5 goals at $2.10 was the other bet I considered.

  29 Oct 2026, 19:38 GMT · Source

The full list is in the JSON and CSV downloads of this page.

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From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.

Share cards of this record (4)

• Bankroll card — Bren Gray
• A month following Bren Gray
• Said → happened — Bren Gray
• Turning point — Bren Gray

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