{
 "schema_name": "page",
 "schema_version": "2.0",
 "page_type": "author",
 "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/",
 "canonical": "/authors/aaron-ashley/",
 "language": "en",
 "hreflang": [],
 "translations": [],
 "heading": "Aaron Ashley: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "Verified record: 15 settled picks by Aaron Ashley recorded before kick-off across 14 matches, 20 Oct 2026 – 7 Nov 2026: −9.2% at our recorded market prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record recorded 15 settled live picks by Aaron Ashley before kick-off across 14 matches between 20 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −9.2% on the total staked. Of the 608 predictions we hold for Aaron Ashley, 499 are linked to matches: 48 were recorded by us before kick-off, 277 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 174 first found after the match; 2 are excluded while the attribution is under review. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "key_number": "−9.2%",
  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
  "brand": "Forecast Record"
 },
 "indexable": false,
 "noindex_reason": "outside_core",
 "indexing_threshold": {
  "settled_count": 126,
  "date_count": 97,
  "required_settled": 10,
  "required_dates": 2,
  "live_count": 0,
  "restored_count": 216,
  "of_them_archived": 131
 },
 "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z",
 "content_hash": null,
 "meaning_hash": "2d89263a7070ec1034e52376177645e4796f382d1e90480f4628b2289ea75ea9",
 "dependency_group": "author:e-f5750b82a0033a44cb6cb1bb",
 "release_id": "20261107-195223",
 "markup": [
  {
   "type_code": "WebPage",
   "allowed": true,
   "cause": null
  },
  {
   "type_code": "Organization",
   "allowed": true,
   "cause": null
  },
  {
   "type_code": "Person",
   "allowed": true,
   "cause": null
  }
 ],
 "exports": [
  {
   "type_code": "json",
   "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/index.json",
   "bytes": null
  },
  {
   "type_code": "csv",
   "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/picks.csv",
   "bytes": null
  }
 ],
 "modules": {
  "affiliate": true,
  "api": true,
  "compare_yourself": false
 },
 "affiliate_block": {
  "container": true,
  "request_url": "/partnery/moi",
  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
  "page_category": "author"
 },
 "restrictions": {
  "name_withdrawn": false,
  "tracker_number": null,
  "withdrawn_quotes": [],
  "removed_at": null,
  "cause": null,
  "suspended_records": [],
  "withdrawal_log_number": 0
 },
 "page_links": {
  "methodology": "/methodology/",
  "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/",
  "source_coverage": "/coverage/",
  "corrections_log": "/corrections/",
  "api": "/api/",
  "claim": "/claim/"
 },
 "entity": {
  "id": "e-f5750b82a0033a44cb6cb1bb",
  "public_name": "Aaron Ashley",
  "tracker_number": 1495,
  "status": "active",
  "inactive_since": null,
  "verified_creator": false,
  "observation_period": {
   "since": "2026-09-28",
   "until": "2026-11-07"
  },
  "platform_list": [
   {
    "medium": "website",
    "handle": null,
    "url": null,
    "link_confirmed": false,
    "show": true
   }
  ],
  "comment": null
 },
 "headline_number": {
  "metric": {
   "metric_id": "p-e-f5750b82a0033a44cb6cb1bb-roi-market-price-90d-z99",
   "code_name": "roi_market_price",
   "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot",
   "window_kind": "90d",
   "window_from": "2026-08-09",
   "window_to": "2026-11-07",
   "amount": "-9.2027",
   "unit": "percent",
   "data_status": "calculated",
   "cause": null,
   "n_bets": 15,
   "n_events": 14,
   "n_void": 0,
   "ci_low": "-63.3847",
   "ci_high": "51.5913",
   "ci_method": "cluster_bootstrap",
   "price_source": "market_price",
   "coverage_percent": null,
   "breakdown": [],
   "methodology_version": "2.2",
   "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
   "enough_for_ranking": false,
   "series_key": "market_price",
   "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
   "series_uid": null
  },
  "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 15 settled picks across 14 matches",
  "average_odds": null,
  "odds_from_author": null,
  "odds_from_snapshot": null
 },
 "metrics": [],
 "history": [],
 "simulation": {
  "series_key": null,
  "series_label": "No level stake placed",
  "bankroll_hundredths": 1000000,
  "reserve_hundredths": 0,
  "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000,
  "initial_hundredths": 1000000,
  "stake_hundredths": 10000,
  "top_up_count": 0,
  "profit_hundredths": 0,
  "rewards_off": null,
  "data_points": [],
  "top_ups": [],
  "rule": "Every tracked author starts with 10,000 points and stakes 100 per qualifying pick. This author has 0 settled bets, so the bankroll stands at its starting value."
 },
 "simulations": [],
 "completeness": {
  "detected": 1721,
  "recognised": 608,
  "accepted": 306,
  "executed": 284,
  "calculated": 236,
  "gaps": [
   {
    "cause": "not_supported",
    "figure": 140
   },
   {
    "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages",
    "figure": 104
   },
   {
    "cause": "other reading",
    "figure": 30
   },
   {
    "cause": "National-team matches",
    "figure": 28
   },
   {
    "cause": "not_checked",
    "figure": 22
   }
  ]
 },
 "record_counts": {
  "dictionary_version": "1",
  "statements": 1721,
  "of_them_restored": 1228,
  "not_predictions": {
   "opinions": 204,
   "not_about_a_match": 903,
   "unclassified": 0
  },
  "predictions": 608,
  "predictions_restored": 452,
  "matches": 24,
  "admitted": 306,
  "qualifying_picks": 284,
  "qualifying_picks_restored": 267,
  "settled_picks": 236,
  "settled_picks_restored": 221,
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "market_price",
    "derived": false,
    "is_restored": false,
    "qualifying_picks": 17,
    "settled_picks": 15,
    "void": 0,
    "pending_picks": 2,
    "matches": 14,
    "operations_settled": 15,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
     10000
    ],
    "methodologies": [
     "2.2"
    ],
    "display_name": "At an independent odds snapshot"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "author_price",
    "derived": false,
    "is_restored": false,
    "qualifying_picks": 14,
    "settled_picks": 13,
    "void": 0,
    "pending_picks": 1,
    "matches": 13,
    "operations_settled": 13,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
     10000
    ],
    "methodologies": [
     "2.2"
    ],
    "display_name": "At the author's stated price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "derived": false,
    "is_restored": true,
    "qualifying_picks": 35,
    "settled_picks": 33,
    "void": 0,
    "pending_picks": 2,
    "matches": 31,
    "operations_settled": 33,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
     10000
    ],
    "methodologies": [
     "retro-1.0"
    ],
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "derived": false,
    "is_restored": true,
    "qualifying_picks": 187,
    "settled_picks": 154,
    "void": 4,
    "pending_picks": 33,
    "matches": 128,
    "operations_settled": 156,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
     10000
    ],
    "methodologies": [
     "retro-1.0"
    ],
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "derived": false,
    "is_restored": true,
    "qualifying_picks": 197,
    "settled_picks": 173,
    "void": 1,
    "pending_picks": 24,
    "matches": 126,
    "operations_settled": 175,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
     10000
    ],
    "methodologies": [
     "retro-1.1"
    ],
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   }
  ],
  "gaps": [
   {
    "code_name": "not_supported",
    "cause": "not_supported",
    "figure": 140
   },
   {
    "code_name": "after_match",
    "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages",
    "figure": 104
   },
   {
    "code_name": "ambiguous",
    "cause": "other reading",
    "figure": 30
   },
   {
    "code_name": "outside_coverage",
    "cause": "National-team matches",
    "figure": 28
   },
   {
    "code_name": "not_checked",
    "cause": "not_checked",
    "figure": 22
   }
  ],
  "duplicates": 141,
  "junk": {
   "ads": 64,
   "service": 3
  },
  "dictionary_url": "/methodology/#words"
 },
 "evidence_items": [
  {
   "observation_id": "n-707bae5176e9700b3e0ccbf4",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-707bae5176e9700b3e0ccbf4",
   "quote_text": "Given the attacking talent on show and with both teams surely full of belief that they can spoil the party for some of the heavy hitters, this could be quite a treat.",
   "fragment_from": 3602,
   "fragment_to": 3768,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240816154430id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/west-ham-vs-aston-villa-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aIUI32E6lepS/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aaron Ashley",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "95bc19bf167b6f22f3d465cbd43b7a297324c345c0a6a8f0edda32a21c8d6ab1",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:14.260Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "opinion",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
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    "our_snapshot_at": null,
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    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-16T12:02:59.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:14.260Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-66a7d8e13522871ed96a001d",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-66a7d8e13522871ed96a001d",
   "quote_text": "Aston Villa (4-2-3-1): Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Maatsen; Onana, Tielemans; Bailey, McGinn; Rogers; Watkins.",
   "fragment_from": 5483,
   "fragment_to": 5596,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240816154430id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/west-ham-vs-aston-villa-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aIUI32E6lepS/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aaron Ashley",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "95bc19bf167b6f22f3d465cbd43b7a297324c345c0a6a8f0edda32a21c8d6ab1",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:14.260Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
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   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
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    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-16T12:02:59.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:14.260Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-7c3fbadb02af66db266ee759",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-7c3fbadb02af66db266ee759",
   "quote_text": "West Ham (4-2-3-1): Areola; Coufal, Mavropanos, Kilman, Emerson; Ward-Prowse, Soucek; Bowen, Paqueta, Kudus; Fullkrug",
   "fragment_from": 5285,
   "fragment_to": 5402,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240816154430id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/west-ham-vs-aston-villa-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aIUI32E6lepS/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aaron Ashley",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "95bc19bf167b6f22f3d465cbd43b7a297324c345c0a6a8f0edda32a21c8d6ab1",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:14.260Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
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   "cause_code": null,
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   "odds_set": {
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    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-16T12:02:59.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:14.260Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-51bddfac4077cabfb5ae1f46",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-51bddfac4077cabfb5ae1f46",
   "quote_text": "Boubacar Kamara and Tyrone Mings are still on the road to recovery while sub goalkeeper Robin Olsen is a doubt.",
   "fragment_from": 5069,
   "fragment_to": 5180,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240816154430id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/west-ham-vs-aston-villa-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aIUI32E6lepS/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aaron Ashley",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "95bc19bf167b6f22f3d465cbd43b7a297324c345c0a6a8f0edda32a21c8d6ab1",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:14.260Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-16T12:02:59.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:14.260Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-35214be14155073a798914c3",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-35214be14155073a798914c3",
   "quote_text": "Edson Alvarez is the Hammers’ only confirmed absentee while Aaron Wan-Bissaka arrived on Tuesday and is unlikely to start ahead of Vladimir Coufal.",
   "fragment_from": 4718,
   "fragment_to": 4865,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240816154430id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/west-ham-vs-aston-villa-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aIUI32E6lepS/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aaron Ashley",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "95bc19bf167b6f22f3d465cbd43b7a297324c345c0a6a8f0edda32a21c8d6ab1",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:14.260Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
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    "fragment_at": null,
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    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
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    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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   "corrections": [],
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-962df2ee287e2e95b6196143",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-962df2ee287e2e95b6196143",
   "quote_text": "West Ham 29-20\nAston Villa 9-5\nDraw 11-4",
   "fragment_from": 1895,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240816154430id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/west-ham-vs-aston-villa-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aIUI32E6lepS/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aaron Ashley",
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   },
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    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
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    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
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   "late_publication": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
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  {
   "observation_id": "n-3354caa07037625b6ed97bd0",
   "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/picks/24/#pick-n-3354caa07037625b6ed97bd0",
   "quote_text": "Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals\n2pts 4-5 bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes",
   "fragment_from": 1492,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240816154430id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/west-ham-vs-aston-villa-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aIUI32E6lepS/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aaron Ashley",
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    "url": null,
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   },
   "market_label": "Match result and both teams to score",
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    "closing": "4.3300",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
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   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "added_on": "Added to our record on 2 Oct 2026",
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   "author_claim": {
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    "choice": "draw, both teams to score: yes",
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    "market_key": "both_teams_score_and_result",
    "choice_key": "X-yes",
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    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "Match result and both teams to score: draw, both teams to score: yes"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "unknown",
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    "data_status": "unknown",
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    "in_words": "Pending: awaiting a final score for this restored pick."
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     "choice": "draw, both teams to score: yes",
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     "status": "skipped",
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    "material_url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/west-ham-vs-aston-villa-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aIUI32E6lepS/",
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "quote_text": "Centre-back Donovan Pines suffered concussion at the weekend and misses out alongside midfielder Conor",
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   "source_info": {
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   "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:52:37.242Z",
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   "provenance": "restored_archive",
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    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-09-16T14:24:34.000Z",
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    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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  {
   "observation_id": "n-4d779fae24aaffce450f6fac",
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   "fragment_from": 5262,
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   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240917195200id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/champions-league/celtic-vs-slovan-bratislava-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-a3nts4U5DAZz/",
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   "statement_class": "priced",
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    "source_page_at": "2024-09-17T13:46:13.000Z",
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    "flags": [
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
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  },
  {
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-6e850dc64efe4fed2dc3ec16",
   "quote_text": "Japanese ace Reo Hatate has had 17 shots in five Premiership games for Celtic, scoring twice,",
   "fragment_from": 5118,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240917195200id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/champions-league/celtic-vs-slovan-bratislava-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-a3nts4U5DAZz/",
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   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:52:08.062Z",
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   "statement_class": "opinion",
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   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
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    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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  },
  {
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-33b0a8bcf42b5d9a7a399414",
   "quote_text": "Celtic have had at least five corners in each of their five Premiership games this season and",
   "fragment_from": 4939,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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   "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:52:08.062Z",
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240917195200id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/champions-league/celtic-vs-slovan-bratislava-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-a3nts4U5DAZz/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aaron Ashley",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
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    "bundle_id": "e9149e5848fc91c7461391aa8ab6dcd86d6e0e0362d141daeefa546500dd2d9c",
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   "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:52:08.062Z",
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   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
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    "url": null,
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   "outcome_label": "Celtic to win and under 3.5 goals",
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    "by_author": "2.15",
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
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    "closing": "2.2550",
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    "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:52:08.062Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-09-17T19:52:00.000Z",
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   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "Match result and over/under 3.5 goals",
    "choice": "Celtic to win and under 3.5 goals",
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    "market_key": "result_and_total",
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    "period": "match",
    "line": "3.5",
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "Match result and over/under 3.5 goals: Celtic to win and under 3.5 goals at 2.15"
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    "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Celtic 5-1 Slovan Bratislava."
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     "derived": false,
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     "site_simulation": true,
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   "quote_text": "Eberechi Eze to have a shot on target\nThe Palace star has had 18 shots in four league appearances",
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   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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    "flags": [
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   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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   "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/picks/24/#pick-n-e9e22cc2a6ff20db30495991",
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   "fragment_from": 1375,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240920134751id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/crystal-palace-vs-manchester-united-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aTVwu0P23yXP/",
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   "event": null,
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    "fragment_basis": "no",
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    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
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     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
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    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
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   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
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  },
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-e4f5c10300cc367678b47754",
   "quote_text": "Midfielder Marko Jankovic is Qarabag's only injury concern.",
   "fragment_from": 4333,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240925140227id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/europa-league/tottenham-vs-qarabag-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aaLDO4e2GGnk/",
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   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-09-25T13:46:47.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:50:26.104Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
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     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
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    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-338b53a9b101a143637b2508",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-338b53a9b101a143637b2508",
   "quote_text": "Defender Kevin Medina is suspended following his red card against Dinamo Zagreb",
   "fragment_from": 4221,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240925140227id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/europa-league/tottenham-vs-qarabag-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aaLDO4e2GGnk/",
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    "bundle_id": "af7c82f998a4fe3d42c6e4cb3a8db2b5f369cd5e04d8711d4ff5b1625d3e2c48",
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   },
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   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
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    "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:50:26.104Z",
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   "source_info": {
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   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "source_info": {
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "source_info": {
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    "source_page_at": "2024-09-29T13:22:17.000Z",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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  {
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-047b11ba81f62633ce494adc",
   "quote_text": "Di'Shon Bernard returns from suspension.",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "quote_text": "he must do without the services of Nathaniel Chalobah and Ben Hamer.",
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   "source_info": {
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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  },
  {
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-e3d004c04d1f783e780997d7",
   "quote_text": "Rob Dickie, Rob Atkinson, Ross McCrorie, Ayman Benarous and Sam Bell are all injured.",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241001153334id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/bristol-city-vs-sheffield-wednesday-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-ampu57H4LAak/",
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    "flags": [
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     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
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  },
  {
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   "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/picks/24/#pick-n-d7034be69d0bb2c345a3ea56",
   "quote_text": "Bristol City\n1pt 5-4 Hills",
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   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241001153334id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/bristol-city-vs-sheffield-wednesday-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-ampu57H4LAak/",
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   },
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   },
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    "closing": "2.0700",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "loss",
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   "executed_by": "ours",
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   },
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   "added_on": "Added to our record on 2 Oct 2026",
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   "author_claim": {
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    "in_words": "1X2, match result: Bristol City"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Bristol City 0-0 Sheffield Wednesday."
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    {
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     "site_simulation": true,
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     "choice": "Bristol City",
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   ],
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    "status": "not_named",
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     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
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  },
  {
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-244fe6a6cf20b7fc92a1cceb",
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   "fragment_from": 1915,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241001201832id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/champions-league/liverpool-vs-bologna-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aNqJ82c0G5hb/",
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   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:48:48.497Z",
   "executed_at": null,
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   },
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
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    "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:48:48.497Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-e3620deef12c293a9974fd94",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-e3620deef12c293a9974fd94",
   "quote_text": "You can watch Liverpool vs Bologna in the Champions League at 8pm on Wednesday, October 2, live on TNT Sports 2",
   "fragment_from": 1309,
   "fragment_to": 1420,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241001201832id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/champions-league/liverpool-vs-bologna-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aNqJ82c0G5hb/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aaron Ashley",
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   },
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   "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:48:48.497Z",
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   },
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   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-01T15:04:44.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:48:48.497Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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   "correction": null
  },
  {
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-1ae5d443e1c838ae3a4bb58b",
   "quote_text": "it should be a gilt-edged opportunity to get back on the winning trail as Newcastle arrive at the Emirates on a run of three straight defeats.",
   "fragment_from": 1570,
   "fragment_to": 1712,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260424193454id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/arsenal-vs-newcastle-predictions-team-news-betting-tips-odds-and-bet-builder-aa7lq7z7V8Zz/",
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    "speaker": "Aaron Ashley",
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   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "opinion",
   "status": "recognised",
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   },
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
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   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2026-04-25T14:15:00.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:43:07.893Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-3eeb2e84e5c5ccbc47ea9d35",
   "quote_text": "Sign up with Paddy Power to get Arsenal at 50-1 to beat Newcastle in the Premier League on Saturday.",
   "fragment_from": 6111,
   "fragment_to": 6211,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260424193454id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/arsenal-vs-newcastle-predictions-team-news-betting-tips-odds-and-bet-builder-aa7lq7z7V8Zz/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aaron Ashley",
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   },
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   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   },
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2026-04-25T14:15:00.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:43:07.893Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
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   "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/picks/24/#pick-n-73c0e64992debac2585b635d",
   "quote_text": "Under 3.5 goals",
   "fragment_from": 5081,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260424193454id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/arsenal-vs-newcastle-predictions-team-news-betting-tips-odds-and-bet-builder-aa7lq7z7V8Zz/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aaron Ashley",
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    "bundle_id": "77e802776ac2c2c49af8f350bf454377055065901d43d8666bbd2db3d43b6f62",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2026-04-25T14:15:00.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:43:07.893Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:57.643Z",
   "statement_class": "unpriced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
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   "event": {
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    "display_name": "Arsenal v Newcastle United",
    "competition_name": "Premier League",
    "starts_at": "2026-04-25T16:30:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "1-0"
   },
   "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals",
   "outcome_label": "under 3.5",
   "odds_set": {
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    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": "1.4400",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "win",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": 4400,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": "ours",
   "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "archive_snapshot_at": "2026-04-24T19:34:54.000Z",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2026-04-25T14:15:00.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2026-04-25T14:15:00.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:43:07.893Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": "2026-04-24T19:34:54.000Z",
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": "Added to our record on 2 Oct 2026",
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
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    "choice": "under 3.5",
    "author_odds": null,
    "market_key": "total",
    "choice_key": "under",
    "period": "match",
    "line": "3.5",
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: under 3.5"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "win",
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    "data_status": "measured",
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    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "in_words": "Won: the final score was Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle United."
   },
   "settlements": [
    {
     "operation_id": "caea37853f82ddde9dba628fd04728f98e991ee1c6fb42839c9d8b62b8f96269",
     "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals",
     "choice": "under 3.5",
     "decimal_odds": "1.4400",
     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "win",
     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 4400,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:57.643Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Aaron Ashley",
    "publisher": "racingpost.com",
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    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/arsenal-vs-newcastle-predictions-team-news-betting-tips-odds-and-bet-builder-aa7lq7z7V8Zz/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
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   },
   "correction": null
  },
  {
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   "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/picks/24/#pick-n-9d5ffe4e49598cc2ef5118d8",
   "quote_text": "Arsenal to win by one goal\n1pt 11-4 bet365",
   "fragment_from": 1970,
   "fragment_to": 2012,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260424193454id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/arsenal-vs-newcastle-predictions-team-news-betting-tips-odds-and-bet-builder-aa7lq7z7V8Zz/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aaron Ashley",
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    "bundle_id": "77e802776ac2c2c49af8f350bf454377055065901d43d8666bbd2db3d43b6f62",
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   },
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   "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:43:07.893Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "priced",
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   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "cause_code": "disputed_reading",
   "event": {
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    "display_name": "Arsenal v Newcastle United",
    "competition_name": "Premier League",
    "starts_at": "2026-04-25T16:30:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": null
   },
   "market_label": "European handicap 1",
   "outcome_label": "Arsenal +1",
   "odds_set": {
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    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": "1.0800",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "unknown",
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   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
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   "dates": {
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    "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:43:07.893Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": "2026-04-24T19:34:54.000Z",
    "flags": [],
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": "Added to our record on 2 Oct 2026",
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "European handicap 1",
    "choice": "Arsenal +1",
    "author_odds": "3.75",
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    "period": "match",
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    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "European handicap 1: Arsenal +1 at 3.75"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "unknown",
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-62bb791407d0528c529ed909",
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   "quote_text": "the stakes could lead to a tentative affair.",
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   "source_info": {
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  },
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   "quote_text": "Ladbrokes are offering £25 in free bets when you bet £5 on Leicester vs Nottingham Forest.",
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   "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/picks/23/#pick-n-35212604280211718eb9e5e3",
   "quote_text": "Wilfred Ndidi to be shown a card",
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   "source_info": {
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   "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:15:00.404Z",
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   "statement_class": "unpriced",
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    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-24T15:00:34.000Z",
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-39f93d4188dbb5aebccb5784",
   "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/picks/23/#pick-n-39f93d4188dbb5aebccb5784",
   "quote_text": "Ryan Yates to have over 1.5 shots",
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "source_info": {
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    "closing": "1.4500",
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   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2024-10-28T17:25:03.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-28T17:25:03.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:14:39.346Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-10-28T20:17:58.000Z",
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": "Added to our record on 1 Oct 2026",
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "Asian handicap -1",
    "choice": "Southampton -1",
    "author_odds": null,
    "market_key": "handicap_asian",
    "choice_key": "1",
    "period": "match",
    "line": "-1",
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "Asian handicap -1: Southampton -1"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "void",
    "scoreline": "3-2",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "in_words": "Void: the final score was Southampton 3-2 Stoke City."
   },
   "settlements": [
    {
     "operation_id": "a9fb34b3bd8847a61454991327b698a87890128c8263cc42aed13db5b267f62b",
     "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Asian handicap -1",
     "choice": "Southampton -1",
     "decimal_odds": "1.4500",
     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "void",
     "result_words": "Void",
     "change_hundredths": 0,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:35.207Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Aaron Ashley",
    "publisher": "racingpost.com",
    "forecaster": "Aaron Ashley",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/tuesdays-football-tips-including-southampton-vs-stoke-predictions-axjL54l0XSXm/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
    "verdict_line": null
   },
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-54bfbe86071dfa6b8437bffa",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-54bfbe86071dfa6b8437bffa",
   "quote_text": "Kyle Bartley remains sidelined while Paddy McNair was forced off early in last weekend’s draw with Cardiff, making him a doubt.",
   "fragment_from": 3850,
   "fragment_to": 3977,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241101033311id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/luton-vs-west-brom-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-atCKw0j4G7Bo/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aaron Ashley",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "f021b0adb5b2317f6eaf435c73faec6a3630b83a5210c4ad85a1c8d7204eb709",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:14:14.094Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-31T13:48:56.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:14:14.094Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "excluded_from_feed": {
  "ads": 45,
  "service": 0,
  "ruleset_version": "3"
 },
 "standing": {
  "titles": [],
  "publication_mode": "top20",
  "empty_reason": null,
  "rules_version": "catalog-1",
  "insufficient": [],
  "badges_on_page": 0,
  "header_titles": [],
  "record_origin": [
   {
    "portion": "live",
    "n": 22,
    "body": "22 recorded before kick-off · since 3 Oct 2026"
   },
   {
    "portion": "archived",
    "n": 135,
    "body": "135 from the pre-match archive · 2024–2026"
   },
   {
    "portion": "found_after",
    "n": 86,
    "body": "86 found after the match"
   }
  ],
  "recent_record": [],
  "record_details": [
   {
    "code_name": "M-11",
    "body": "Most recorded: Match result (1X2) · 31 matches",
    "details_words": "Match result (1X2) 11/31 (31 matches); Bet-builder combos 9/28 (28 matches); Goals over/under 11/19 (19 matches); Both teams to score 11/18 (18 matches); Goalscorer picks 1/13 (13 matches); Double chance and draw no bet 5/13 (12 matches); Player props 3/13 (12 matches); Correct score 0/8 (8 matches)",
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live+archived",
    "display_name": "Most recorded bet type",
    "rule_href": "/titles/m-11-most-recorded-bet-type/"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "CS-01",
    "body": "Exact scores · 0/8",
    "details_words": null,
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "archived",
    "display_name": "Exact scores",
    "rule_href": "/titles/cs-01-exact-scores/"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "C-01",
    "body": "Minority calls · 1/1",
    "details_words": "Result calls on matches with at least 8 other tipsters and sources, where at least 60.0% of them named another outcome.",
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "display_name": "Minority calls",
    "rule_href": "/titles/c-01-minority-calls/"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "X-01",
    "body": "Longest price: correct at 2.37 · 3 May 2026",
    "details_words": "Manchester United v Liverpool · Home win at 2.37 (archive closing price)",
    "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/picks/8/#pick-n-32a76eeca6aadac0c503578d",
    "provenance": "archived",
    "display_name": "Correct at a long price",
    "rule_href": "/titles/x-01-correct-at-a-long-price/"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "E-03",
    "body": "Away calls · 5/16",
    "details_words": null,
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live+archived",
    "display_name": "Away calls",
    "rule_href": "/titles/e-03-away-calls/"
   }
  ],
  "history": []
 },
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 208,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 127,
  "found_post_match": 81,
  "of_them_source_reported": 0,
  "live_count": 0,
  "date_count": 117,
  "span_from": "2024-08-08",
  "span_to": "2026-09-20",
  "line_text": "restored history: 208, of which pre-match archive 127",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League, Championship, League Cup, Champions League, Europa League, League One and Conference League matches between 8 August 2024 and 20 September 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 208. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 127. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 81. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 203,
   "share": "0.3842"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 139,
    "roi": "-24.1232",
    "ci_low": "-43.2633",
    "ci_high": "-5.0409",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "n": 30,
    "roi": "-34.7737",
    "ci_low": "-62.8383",
    "ci_high": "-5.4580",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 160,
    "roi": "-20.1906",
    "ci_low": "-35.6730",
    "ci_high": "-5.1024",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_derived_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored score forecast: result implied by the score, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 7,
    "roi": "-41.5714",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Premier League",
   "Championship",
   "League Cup",
   "Champions League",
   "Europa League",
   "League One",
   "Conference League"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 89 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 125 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged.",
  "score_accuracy": {
   "n": 7,
   "share": "0.0"
  }
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
    "basis": "closing",
    "basis_words": "the closing market price of the same selection (restored history)",
    "basis_short": "Closing market price (restored)",
    "compared": 17,
    "above": 3,
    "above_share_percent": "17.6",
    "below": 2,
    "within": 12,
    "median_difference_percent": "1.2",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated",
    "sentence": "The author's stated price against the closing price of the same selection: median +1.2% over 17 picks. The price available to followers is the market price, shown separately."
   }
  ],
  "examples": [
   {
    "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/picks/5/#pick-n-9a647c61bd1cfa3fbe81417f",
    "basis": "closing",
    "stated": "2.62",
    "market": "2.05",
    "difference_percent": "28.0"
   },
   {
    "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/picks/8/#pick-n-654151090710ab63b9072ead",
    "basis": "closing",
    "stated": "2.45",
    "market": "2.18",
    "difference_percent": "12.4"
   }
  ],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "racingpost.com",
   "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/football-acca-tips/football-accumulator-tips-for-sunday-november-8-back-our-acca-at-7-1-aNVIO4Y7kJm2/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-09-28",
  "observed_to": "2026-11-07",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price",
  "restored": false,
  "headline_kind": "live_snapshot",
  "headline_part": "live",
  "settled_picks": 15,
  "matches": 14,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -13804,
  "staked_hundredths": 150000,
  "return_percent": "-9.20",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2026-10-20",
  "period_to": "2026-11-07",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "2.2",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 15 settled live picks by Aaron Ashley before kick-off across 14 matches between 20 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −9.2% on the total staked. Of the 608 predictions we hold for Aaron Ashley, 499 are linked to matches: 48 were recorded by us before kick-off, 277 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 174 first found after the match; 2 are excluded while the attribution is under review. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled live picks",
    "value": "15",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "14",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−138.04 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "value": "−9.2%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": "95% interval −63.4% to +51.6%"
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "This page combines Aaron Ashley across 3 platforms. The record above counts each prediction once, even when the same pick (match, market and selection) appeared on more than one platform; each platform keeps its own total under “Where Aaron Ashley publishes”.",
   "2 predictions are kept out of this record’s totals: the article byline and the named tipster differ."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [
   {
    "date": "2026-10-20",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 20500,
    "n": 1
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-21",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 34200,
    "n": 2
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-23",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 42550,
    "n": 4
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-24",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 22550,
    "n": 6
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-25",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 2550,
    "n": 8
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-27",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7450,
    "n": 9
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-28",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -17450,
    "n": 10
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-01",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -8104,
    "n": 11
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-04",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -13804,
    "n": 13
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-07",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -13804,
    "n": 15
   }
  ],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": {
    "part": "live",
    "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.",
    "settled_picks": 15,
    "matches": 14,
    "match_dates": 10,
    "period_from": "2026-10-20",
    "period_to": "2026-11-07",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -13804,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-10-28",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -17450,
     "after_picks": 10
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-10-23",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 42550,
     "after_picks": 4
    },
    "line_drawn": true,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2026-10-20",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 20500,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-21",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 34200,
      "n": 2,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-23",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 42550,
      "n": 4,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-24",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 22550,
      "n": 6,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-25",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 2550,
      "n": 8,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-27",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7450,
      "n": 9,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-28",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -17450,
      "n": 10,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -8104,
      "n": 11,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-04",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -13804,
      "n": 13,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-07",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -13804,
      "n": 15,
      "picks": 2
     }
    ]
   },
   "archived": {
    "part": "archived",
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
    "settled_picks": 105,
    "matches": 77,
    "match_dates": 71,
    "period_from": "2024-08-16",
    "period_to": "2026-05-03",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -204400,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-04-18",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -232000,
     "after_picks": 100
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2024-09-25",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10300,
     "after_picks": 7
    },
    "line_drawn": true,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2024-08-16",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000,
      "n": 2,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-08-17",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30000,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-09-17",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -23800,
      "n": 4,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-09-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -33800,
      "n": 5,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-09-21",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -24300,
      "n": 6,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-09-25",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10300,
      "n": 7,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-09-26",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20300,
      "n": 8,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-09-28",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -31300,
      "n": 11,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-09-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -22100,
      "n": 12,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-09-30",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -13150,
      "n": 13,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-10-02",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -33150,
      "n": 15,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-10-21",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -36850,
      "n": 17,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-10-25",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -46850,
      "n": 18,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-10-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -46850,
      "n": 19,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-11-02",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -62550,
      "n": 23,
      "picks": 4
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-11-24",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -72550,
      "n": 24,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-12-03",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -65750,
      "n": 27,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-12-07",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -58150,
      "n": 28,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-12-14",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -51950,
      "n": 29,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-12-15",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -58050,
      "n": 33,
      "picks": 4
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-12-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -49550,
      "n": 34,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-12-26",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -59550,
      "n": 35,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-12-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -79550,
      "n": 37,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-01-04",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -89550,
      "n": 38,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-01-05",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -66300,
      "n": 40,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-01-15",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -56800,
      "n": 41,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-01-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -42150,
      "n": 42,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-01-19",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -52150,
      "n": 43,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-01-22",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -72150,
      "n": 45,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-01-26",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -92150,
      "n": 47,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-01-30",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -72200,
      "n": 49,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-02-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -62700,
      "n": 50,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-02-15",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -52200,
      "n": 51,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-02-16",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -72200,
      "n": 53,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-02-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -82200,
      "n": 54,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-02-21",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -77450,
      "n": 56,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-02-22",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -87450,
      "n": 57,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-03-08",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -107450,
      "n": 59,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-02",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -95450,
      "n": 60,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-05",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -81300,
      "n": 62,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-06",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -91300,
      "n": 63,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-08",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -101300,
      "n": 64,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-12",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -88300,
      "n": 65,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-16",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -92500,
      "n": 67,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-05-02",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -102500,
      "n": 68,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-05-10",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -112500,
      "n": 69,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-05-11",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -132500,
      "n": 71,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-05-16",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -114750,
      "n": 73,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-05-20",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -124750,
      "n": 74,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-10",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -144750,
      "n": 76,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-23",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -154750,
      "n": 77,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-30",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -164750,
      "n": 78,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-31",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -163250,
      "n": 80,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-09-13",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -173250,
      "n": 81,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-09-16",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -181250,
      "n": 84,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-09-28",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -201250,
      "n": 86,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-09-30",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -221250,
      "n": 88,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-04",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -213700,
      "n": 91,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-11-08",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -205700,
      "n": 92,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-11-09",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -193550,
      "n": 93,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-12-20",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -188250,
      "n": 94,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-01-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -198250,
      "n": 95,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-02-19",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -208250,
      "n": 96,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-03-04",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -218250,
      "n": 97,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-03-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -212000,
      "n": 98,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-04-11",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -222000,
      "n": 99,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-04-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -232000,
      "n": 100,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-04-19",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -223500,
      "n": 101,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-04-25",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -219100,
      "n": 102,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-05-02",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -218050,
      "n": 104,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-05-03",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -204400,
      "n": 105,
      "picks": 1
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record recorded 15 settled live picks by Aaron Ashley before kick-off across 14 matches between 20 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −9.2% on the total staked. Of the 608 predictions we hold for Aaron Ashley, 499 are linked to matches: 48 were recorded by us before kick-off, 277 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 174 first found after the match; 2 are excluded while the attribution is under review. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/aaron-ashley/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "2.2"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 606,
   "under_review": 2,
   "no_match_linked": 107,
   "proven_predictions": 325,
   "proven_checked": 169,
   "proven_measured": 126,
   "proven_dates": 97,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 48,
     "checked": 31,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 15,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 14,
      "net_points_hundredths": -13804,
      "staked_hundredths": 150000,
      "return_percent": "-9.20",
      "interval_low": "-63.38",
      "interval_high": "51.59",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2026-10-20",
      "period_to": "2026-11-07",
      "method_version": "2.2",
      "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0",
      "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0",
      "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 4
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "author_price",
       "picks": 12,
       "return_main_percent": "1.58",
       "return_other_percent": "2.71",
       "settled_excluding_void": 12,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 1896,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 3250,
       "period_from": "2026-10-20",
       "period_to": "2026-11-07"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price",
       "series_code": "closing_live",
       "picks": 9,
       "return_main_percent": "-36.28",
       "return_other_percent": "-34.11",
       "settled_excluding_void": 9,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -32654,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -30703,
       "period_from": "2026-10-21",
       "period_to": "2026-11-04"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 31,
      "priced": 15
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 15,
      "won": 6,
      "won_percent": "40.0",
      "implied_percent": "49.3",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 7,
        "implied_percent": "47.3"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "69.7"
       },
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "49.8"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and both teams to score",
        "won": 2,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "34.0"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "51.7"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and total goals",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "50.0"
       }
      ]
     },
     "reviewed_after": {
      "predictions": 9,
      "right": 6,
      "wrong": 3,
      "other": 0
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 277,
     "checked": 138,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 105,
      "void": 1,
      "matches": 77,
      "net_points_hundredths": -204400,
      "staked_hundredths": 1040000,
      "return_percent": "-19.65",
      "interval_low": "-38.80",
      "interval_high": "0.08",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2024-08-16",
      "period_to": "2026-05-03",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 64,
       "return_main_percent": "-17.48",
       "return_other_percent": "-14.62",
       "settled_excluding_void": 64,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -111900,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -93600,
       "period_from": "2024-08-16",
       "period_to": "2026-05-03"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price, aggregator",
       "series_code": "retro_market_closing",
       "picks": 21,
       "return_main_percent": "-21.36",
       "return_other_percent": "-22.71",
       "settled_excluding_void": 21,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -44850,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -47698,
       "period_from": "2025-02-16",
       "period_to": "2026-05-03"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 6,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": 0.0,
      "outcome_checked": 6,
      "outcome_hits": 3,
      "outcome_rate": 50.0,
      "baseline_matches": 6,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 6,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 3,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 50.0,
      "favourite_hits": 5,
      "favourite_rate": 83.3,
      "price_basis": "last pre-match archive price",
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": [
       "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.",
       "0 of 6 score forecasts named the exact score.",
       "The result implied by the named score was right in 3 of 6 matches; the market favourite was right in 5 of the same 6 matches.",
       "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).",
       "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)."
      ]
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 138,
      "priced": 105
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 104,
      "won": 44,
      "won_percent": "42.3",
      "implied_percent": "49.6",
      "left_out": 1,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 7,
        "picks": 22,
        "implied_percent": "46.3"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 10,
        "picks": 18,
        "implied_percent": "56.9"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 10,
        "picks": 15,
        "implied_percent": "55.4"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and total goals",
        "won": 6,
        "picks": 15,
        "implied_percent": "46.2"
       },
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 4,
        "picks": 9,
        "implied_percent": "45.8"
       },
       {
        "market": "Other markets",
        "won": 7,
        "picks": 25,
        "implied_percent": "47.3"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 174,
     "checked": 88,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 66,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 49,
      "net_points_hundredths": -129450,
      "staked_hundredths": 660000,
      "return_percent": "-19.61",
      "interval_low": "-42.15",
      "interval_high": "2.75",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2024-08-08",
      "period_to": "2026-09-20",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 40,
       "return_main_percent": "-19.86",
       "return_other_percent": "-17.86",
       "settled_excluding_void": 40,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -79450,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -71426,
       "period_from": "2024-08-08",
       "period_to": "2026-09-20"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price, aggregator",
       "series_code": "retro_market_closing",
       "picks": 12,
       "return_main_percent": "-59.83",
       "return_other_percent": "-59.47",
       "settled_excluding_void": 12,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -71800,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -71360,
       "period_from": "2025-04-12",
       "period_to": "2026-09-20"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 88,
      "priced": 66
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 66,
      "won": 30,
      "won_percent": "45.5",
      "implied_percent": "51.9",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 9,
        "picks": 25,
        "implied_percent": "53.1"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and total goals",
        "won": 6,
        "picks": 12,
        "implied_percent": "48.9"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 2,
        "picks": 5,
        "implied_percent": "61.6"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 3,
        "picks": 4,
        "implied_percent": "60.0"
       },
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 2,
        "picks": 4,
        "implied_percent": "43.3"
       },
       {
        "market": "Other markets",
        "won": 8,
        "picks": 16,
        "implied_percent": "49.4"
       }
      ]
     }
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-0d70529cfc0d0b636d9ca7f8",
   "n-12e0437fd5ecbfe8a3f218f7",
   "n-2fb05cfc7684b5fdf1257146",
   "n-338bfe84970e1afd7c9fb49a",
   "n-5d76b9dbda9c75a7766aa73a",
   "n-61fe4e83b488d9e23e7bd945",
   "n-636082efa386c6ab79bfdc0a",
   "n-6d34ac81c3b7dcbdd83815d8",
   "n-a29d2d07a58337c47e617fe2",
   "n-abcec38e676d63c03f9c2397",
   "n-d657fc7a28ed62d010fbfc88",
   "n-f5958d8e4fddda8e863ac0a8",
   "n-fb7fa8059e110769ffa35864",
   "n-fd03d02f496a269aad589b5c",
   "n-fe8701f954eeb8dbec4f35af"
  ],
  "interval_low": "-63.38",
  "interval_high": "51.59",
  "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 20 October – 7 November 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2",
  "record_from": "2024-08-08",
  "record_to": "2026-11-07"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-abcec38e676d63c03f9c2397",
   "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/picks/31/#pick-n-abcec38e676d63c03f9c2397",
   "match": "Fulham v Newcastle United",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/fulham-vs-newcastle-united-2026-11-07/",
   "kickoff": "2026-11-07T15:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": 21.7,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: Fulham at 2.05",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "1-1",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "market_price",
   "series_short": "odds snapshot",
   "author_price": "2.05",
   "settled_price": "2.0000",
   "published_at": "2026-11-06T17:00:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-11-06T17:18:18.152Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "record_part": "live",
   "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off",
   "in_headline": true,
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   "evidence": {
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   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
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   "reason": "the article byline and the named tipster differ; this selection is kept out of individual totals",
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   "evidence": {
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     "scoreline": "5-1"
    },
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    "author_claim": {
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     "choice": "draw or Swansea City",
     "author_odds": "1.75",
     "market_key": "double_chance",
     "choice_key": "X2",
     "period": "match",
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     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "Double chance: draw or Swansea City at 1.75"
    },
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    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Tom McGarry",
     "publisher": "racingpost.com",
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     "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
     "basis": "channel_owner_only",
     "status": "under_check",
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   "quote": "Liam Delap to have a shot on target\nThe former City man carries Ipswich's chief threat and he has hit the target 18 times in the top-flight this term.",
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   "quote": "Ollie Watkins to score or assist",
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   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
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   "quote": "Crystal Palace to win",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
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   "reason_code": "not_supported",
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   "published_at": "2025-01-14T13:17:49.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-01T01:02:13.667Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
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   "favourite": null,
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   "quote": "Sam Morsy to be shown a card",
   "group": "excluded",
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   "claim_outcome": null,
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   "published_at": "2025-01-04T15:17:50.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-01T01:02:34.934Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
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   "quote": "Over 5.5 Fulham corners",
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   "quote": "Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals in Notts County vs Swindon\n1pt Evs general",
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   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
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   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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 "lead_time": {
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  "before_kickoff": 48,
  "after_kickoff": 274,
  "at_least_2h": 48,
  "share_2h_plus": 14.9,
  "median_hours": 25.1,
  "min_hours": 2.7,
  "max_hours": 197.3,
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  "settled_picks_all": 15,
  "excluded": {
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   "no_recorded_line": 2,
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  "author_net_hundredths": -42000,
  "favourite_net_hundredths": -42000,
  "difference_hundredths": 0,
  "author_return_percent": -52.5,
  "favourite_return_percent": -52.5,
  "author_hit_rate": 25.0,
  "favourite_hit_rate": 25.0,
  "picked_favourite_share": 100.0,
  "by_market": [
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    "staked_hundredths": 60000,
    "author_net_hundredths": -36300,
    "favourite_net_hundredths": -36300,
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    "favourite_hits": 1,
    "picked_favourite": 6,
    "author_return_percent": -60.5,
    "favourite_return_percent": -60.5
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    "picks": 2,
    "staked_hundredths": 20000,
    "author_net_hundredths": -5700,
    "favourite_net_hundredths": -5700,
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    "favourite_hits": 1,
    "picked_favourite": 2,
    "author_return_percent": -28.5,
    "favourite_return_percent": -28.5
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 "pagination": {
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  "total": 608,
  "pages": 32,
  "page_urls": [
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   "/authors/aaron-ashley/picks/10/",
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   "/authors/aaron-ashley/picks/29/",
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   "/authors/aaron-ashley/picks/32/"
  ],
  "groups": {
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   "pending": 2,
   "excluded": 372
  },
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  "page": 1,
  "first": 1,
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  "author_url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/",
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 },
 "title_tag": "Aaron Ashley Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources",
 "calculator": null,
 "person": {
  "person_id": "o-f5750b82a0033a44cb6cb1bb",
  "type_code": "individual",
  "name_shown": "Aaron Ashley",
  "main_entity": "e-f5750b82a0033a44cb6cb1bb",
  "identity": {
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   "when": "2026-10-11",
   "source_list": [
    {
     "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/authors/aaron-ashley/",
     "what": "«Aaron writes on football, snooker and tennis. A Northampton fan who has had his ups and downs, he has more ups than downs with his tipping.»"
    },
    {
     "url": "https://www.livescore.com/en/news/author/aaron-ashley/",
     "what": "«Aaron is a sports journalist specialising in football, snooker and tennis. As a Northampton supporter, he's learned to live with the ups and downs, but has more ups than downs with his tipping!»"
    }
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    "domain": "racingpost.com",
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    "byline": "Aaron Ashley",
    "url": "/sources/racing-post/",
    "summary": {
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     "predictions": 424,
     "settled_picks": 103,
     "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
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     "headline_part": "archived",
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    "summary": {
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     "predictions": 178,
     "settled_picks": 15,
     "headline_kind": "live_snapshot",
     "return_percent": -9.2,
     "headline_part": "live",
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     "predictions": 6,
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     "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
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     "headline_part": "archived",
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 "number_changes": [
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    "text": "−19.29% on 12 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "text": "−17.45% on 10 settled picks across 10 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "text": "−19.29% on 12 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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   "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/",
   "category": "method_changed",
   "category_words": "Method changed",
   "before": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-22.3",
    "return_percent": "-19.65",
    "settled_picks": 105,
    "matches": 77,
    "void": 1,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "a6403144d1176b47d8610be2c6b8b6f6afc51e20aab4cccb6beaebb7e5d574e5",
    "text": "−19.65% on 105 settled picks across 77 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-29.1",
    "return_percent": "-17.45",
    "settled_picks": 10,
    "matches": 10,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "afdb958a34e67718a180a8c73f841b825ebffbdffdd7b53960a5d442fc009f21",
    "text": "−17.45% on 10 settled picks across 10 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "The headline rule changed on 14 October 2026: the live record at our recorded market price becomes the headline number from 10 settled picks; until then the headline is the record restored from pre-match archive copies, and the live record so far is shown beside it. Was: historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (105 settled picks). Now: independent odds snapshot (10 settled picks).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
    "added": 10,
    "removed": 105,
    "changed": 0
   },
   "correction_id": "i-478171fac661b7ad7478"
  },
  {
   "id": "zc-4e1aa51ea1cd65f5dd1f",
   "at": "2026-10-22T09:54:30.278Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-22.3",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-22.2",
   "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/",
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   "category_words": "Data corrected",
   "before": {
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    "return_percent": "-19.25",
    "settled_picks": 115,
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "6a686556dc049bf0ea55fedd4bdede1920fc8c45a79525f5764b09cc88eab260",
    "text": "−19.25% on 115 settled picks across 82 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "-19.65",
    "settled_picks": 105,
    "matches": 77,
    "void": 1,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "a6403144d1176b47d8610be2c6b8b6f6afc51e20aab4cccb6beaebb7e5d574e5",
    "text": "−19.65% on 105 settled picks across 77 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Data corrected: 8 picks left the headline sample.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
    "added": 0,
    "removed": 8,
    "changed": 0
   },
   "correction_id": "i-1bef16c59bea226837f6"
  },
  {
   "id": "zc-36a1c4cecb34aa1bcc81",
   "at": "2026-10-22T05:56:36.122Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-22.2",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-22.1",
   "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
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    "data_version": "2026-10-19.7",
    "return_percent": "-19.65",
    "settled_picks": 105,
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "a6403144d1176b47d8610be2c6b8b6f6afc51e20aab4cccb6beaebb7e5d574e5",
    "text": "−19.65% on 105 settled picks across 77 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-22.2",
    "return_percent": "-19.25",
    "settled_picks": 115,
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    "void": 1,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "6a686556dc049bf0ea55fedd4bdede1920fc8c45a79525f5764b09cc88eab260",
    "text": "−19.25% on 115 settled picks across 82 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Added 8 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 0,
    "changed": 0
   },
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  },
  {
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   "at": "2026-10-19T23:18:20.062Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-19.7",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-19.6",
   "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/",
   "category": "data_corrected",
   "category_words": "Data corrected",
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    "data_version": "2026-10-19.6",
    "return_percent": "-19.55",
    "settled_picks": 107,
    "matches": 78,
    "void": 1,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "7e2d837df19fd360c3e299d58cc45610fabd75deb3acb4dc052c224380dc892e",
    "text": "−19.55% on 107 settled picks across 78 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "settled_picks": 105,
    "matches": 77,
    "void": 1,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "a6403144d1176b47d8610be2c6b8b6f6afc51e20aab4cccb6beaebb7e5d574e5",
    "text": "−19.65% on 105 settled picks across 77 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Data corrected: 2 picks left the headline sample.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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   },
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  {
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   "at": "2026-10-19T19:39:27.559Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-19.6",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-19.5",
   "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/",
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   "category_words": "Data corrected",
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    "data_version": "2026-10-18.3",
    "return_percent": "-18.31",
    "settled_picks": 115,
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    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "cc74641c11f801369284094b85d5e0986b3f8e37b67a5a3f37a5f1ea38269f7b",
    "text": "−18.31% on 115 settled picks across 80 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "-19.55",
    "settled_picks": 107,
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    "void": 1,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "7e2d837df19fd360c3e299d58cc45610fabd75deb3acb4dc052c224380dc892e",
    "text": "−19.55% on 107 settled picks across 78 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Data corrected: 8 picks left the headline sample.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 8,
    "changed": 0
   },
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  },
  {
   "id": "zc-18fdbfcf5c526d5420ef",
   "at": "2026-10-18T04:18:28.335Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-18.3",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-18.2",
   "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/",
   "category": "data_corrected",
   "category_words": "Data corrected",
   "before": {
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    "return_percent": "-19.66",
    "settled_picks": 119,
    "matches": 83,
    "void": 1,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "f05855fc19664380c48892abdf2acba08e17f7efa6b10fdbff328ab3000803e7",
    "text": "−19.66% on 119 settled picks across 83 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "-18.31",
    "settled_picks": 115,
    "matches": 80,
    "void": 1,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "cc74641c11f801369284094b85d5e0986b3f8e37b67a5a3f37a5f1ea38269f7b",
    "text": "−18.31% on 115 settled picks across 80 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Data corrected: 3 picks left the headline sample.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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   },
   "correction_id": "i-39888e65441426d2752a"
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  {
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   "at": "2026-10-18T03:29:01.089Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-18.2",
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   "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
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    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "cc74641c11f801369284094b85d5e0986b3f8e37b67a5a3f37a5f1ea38269f7b",
    "text": "−18.31% on 115 settled picks across 80 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-18.2",
    "return_percent": "-19.66",
    "settled_picks": 119,
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    "void": 1,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "f05855fc19664380c48892abdf2acba08e17f7efa6b10fdbff328ab3000803e7",
    "text": "−19.66% on 119 settled picks across 83 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Added 3 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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   },
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  {
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    "return_percent": "-18.54",
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    "composition_hash": "d600876950b27232f1677e7b2e1064cc4c098ef087776c1ddb1a8b725ea96a89",
    "text": "−18.54% on 111 settled picks across 76 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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    "composition_hash": "cc74641c11f801369284094b85d5e0986b3f8e37b67a5a3f37a5f1ea38269f7b",
    "text": "−18.31% on 115 settled picks across 80 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Added 4 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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   },
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  {
   "id": "zc-fdfa5b753b46387a057e",
   "at": "2026-10-16T12:26:54.015Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-16.3",
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   "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/",
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    "composition_hash": "b7abb279b9a3ae7a7f6aab5dd80ed0e28a2b7e9feea1590647026abdb8343c56",
    "text": "−19.93% on 115 settled picks across 79 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "composition_hash": "d600876950b27232f1677e7b2e1064cc4c098ef087776c1ddb1a8b725ea96a89",
    "text": "−18.54% on 111 settled picks across 76 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Data corrected: 4 picks left the headline sample.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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   },
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  {
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   "at": "2026-10-13T14:04:45.283Z",
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   "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/",
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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    "composition_hash": "3f08ee8c655b9a09b6a79799a3d38aa7f9678074b3c65964a09e94f5aa1f0994",
    "text": "−20.24% on 113 settled picks across 77 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "-19.93",
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "b7abb279b9a3ae7a7f6aab5dd80ed0e28a2b7e9feea1590647026abdb8343c56",
    "text": "−19.93% on 115 settled picks across 79 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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   },
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  {
   "id": "zc-9ce5053afff8a5057be4",
   "at": "2026-10-10T09:03:36.654Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-10.3",
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   "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/",
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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    "composition_hash": "caee2fc484d4effc177f8e695d1e2ff6f980f9fa039fe11785ea8f7b6e1ed658",
    "text": "−20.95% on 114 settled picks across 78 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-10.3",
    "return_percent": "-20.24",
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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    "composition_hash": "3f08ee8c655b9a09b6a79799a3d38aa7f9678074b3c65964a09e94f5aa1f0994",
    "text": "−20.24% on 113 settled picks across 77 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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   },
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  {
   "id": "zc-18209e24e67f8e7c0867",
   "at": "2026-10-09T12:49:36.723Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-09.2",
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   "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/",
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    "settled_picks": 135,
    "matches": 99,
    "void": 1,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "5e51e8c90845da6bf5f98df4f210c86f650d5131ed742b91e619985506a46c7a",
    "text": "−27.74% on 135 settled picks across 99 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-09.2",
    "return_percent": "-20.95",
    "settled_picks": 114,
    "matches": 78,
    "void": 1,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "caee2fc484d4effc177f8e695d1e2ff6f980f9fa039fe11785ea8f7b6e1ed658",
    "text": "−20.95% on 114 settled picks across 78 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, a historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first found after the match no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (135 settled picks). Now: historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (114 settled picks).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 47,
    "changed": 0
   },
   "correction_id": "i-b29dcd2a4a8c82e460bc"
  },
  {
   "id": "zc-d8bdbafd00f36e05f58f",
   "at": "2026-10-09T11:08:54.367Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-09.1",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-09-30.1",
   "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
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    "data_version": "2026-09-30.1",
    "return_percent": "-35.47",
    "settled_picks": 54,
    "matches": 40,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "867cffae22fb213c4a036a0e2a2e291cae38889713b6f9b366ad64806c5ce13e",
    "text": "−35.47% on 54 settled picks across 40 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-09.1",
    "return_percent": "-27.74",
    "settled_picks": 135,
    "matches": 99,
    "void": 1,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "5e51e8c90845da6bf5f98df4f210c86f650d5131ed742b91e619985506a46c7a",
    "text": "−27.74% on 135 settled picks across 99 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Added 81 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
    "added": 81,
    "removed": 0,
    "changed": 0
   },
   "correction_id": null
  }
 ],
 "author_card": {
  "body": "Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 608 predictions · last change 7 November 2026",
  "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/aaron-ashley/",
  "s": "2026-09-28",
  "prediction_count": 608,
  "refreshed_at": "2026-11-07",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://forecastrecord.com/authors/aaron-ashley/\">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 608 predictions · last change 7 November 2026</a>"
 },
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  "tier": "established",
  "in_words": "Established",
  "settled_count": 169,
  "days": 814,
  "weeks": 53,
  "archive": false,
  "in_review": false,
  "own_page": true,
  "won_count": 58,
  "first_settled_on": "2024-08-16",
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    "min_distinct_weeks": 2,
    "no_violations": true
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    "min_days": 90
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 "colleagues": [
  {
   "source_code": "racing-post",
   "source_name": "Racing Post",
   "source_url": "/sources/racing-post/",
   "label": "Also at Racing Post",
   "authors_total": 15,
   "authors": [
    {
     "name": "James Milton",
     "url": "/authors/james-milton/",
     "headline_part": "archived",
     "settled_picks": 124,
     "return_percent": null,
     "small_sample": true,
     "average_odds": null,
     "odds_from_author": null,
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    },
    {
     "name": "Liam Flin",
     "url": "/authors/liam-flin/",
     "headline_part": "archived",
     "settled_picks": 58,
     "return_percent": null,
     "small_sample": true,
     "average_odds": null,
     "odds_from_author": null,
     "odds_from_snapshot": null
    },
    {
     "name": "Jack Ogalbe",
     "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/",
     "headline_part": "archived",
     "settled_picks": 44,
     "return_percent": null,
     "small_sample": true,
     "average_odds": null,
     "odds_from_author": null,
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    },
    {
     "name": "Ian Wilkerson",
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     "headline_part": "archived",
     "settled_picks": 37,
     "return_percent": null,
     "small_sample": true,
     "average_odds": null,
     "odds_from_author": null,
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    },
    {
     "name": "Dan Childs",
     "url": "/authors/dan-childs/",
     "headline_part": "live",
     "settled_picks": 24,
     "return_percent": null,
     "small_sample": true,
     "average_odds": null,
     "odds_from_author": null,
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    },
    {
     "name": "Joe Casey",
     "url": "/authors/joe-casey/",
     "headline_part": "live",
     "settled_picks": 19,
     "return_percent": null,
     "small_sample": true,
     "average_odds": null,
     "odds_from_author": null,
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    },
    {
     "name": "James Mason",
     "url": "/authors/james-mason/",
     "headline_part": "archived",
     "settled_picks": 14,
     "return_percent": "16.1",
     "small_sample": false,
     "average_odds": "4.00",
     "odds_from_author": 10,
     "odds_from_snapshot": 4
    },
    {
     "name": "Steve Davies",
     "url": "/authors/steve-davies/",
     "headline_part": "archived",
     "settled_picks": 14,
     "return_percent": null,
     "small_sample": true,
     "average_odds": null,
     "odds_from_author": null,
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    },
    {
     "name": "Jamie Griffith",
     "url": "/authors/jamie-griffith/",
     "headline_part": "live",
     "settled_picks": 12,
     "return_percent": null,
     "small_sample": true,
     "average_odds": null,
     "odds_from_author": null,
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    },
    {
     "name": "Tom Hill",
     "url": "/authors/tom-hill/",
     "headline_part": "archived",
     "settled_picks": 11,
     "return_percent": null,
     "small_sample": true,
     "average_odds": null,
     "odds_from_author": null,
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    },
    {
     "name": "Tom McGarry",
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     "headline_part": "archived",
     "settled_picks": 11,
     "return_percent": null,
     "small_sample": true,
     "average_odds": null,
     "odds_from_author": null,
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    },
    {
     "name": "Alex Wrigley",
     "url": "/authors/alex-wrigley/",
     "headline_part": "archived",
     "settled_picks": 7,
     "return_percent": null,
     "small_sample": true,
     "average_odds": null,
     "odds_from_author": null,
     "odds_from_snapshot": null
    }
   ]
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 ],
 "author_type": "Pundit",
 "data_changes": {
  "added_later": "66 records added on 28 Sep 2026 from archived copies; 77 records added on 28 Sep 2026 found after the match; 66 records added on 1 Oct 2026 found after the match; 130 more records added on other dates. The current numbers include them; numbers published earlier, including the record before each match, do not change.",
  "records_corrected": 5,
  "last_correction_at": "2026-10-29T20:28:50.091Z",
  "corrections_url": "/corrections/",
  "text": "5 records shown here have been corrected; the last correction was on 29 October 2026, with its reason in the corrections log."
 },
 "entity_id": "person:o-f5750b82a0033a44cb6cb1bb",
 "source_revision": 207,
 "related": [
  {
   "url": "/cards/e-f5750b82a0033a44cb6cb1bb-bank/",
   "name": "Bankroll card — Aaron Ashley",
   "detail": null,
   "source_group": "cards"
  },
  {
   "url": "/cards/e-f5750b82a0033a44cb6cb1bb-said-vs-happened/",
   "name": "Said → happened — Aaron Ashley",
   "detail": null,
   "source_group": "cards"
  },
  {
   "url": "/for-authors/aaron-ashley/",
   "name": "Your record on Forecast Record: Aaron Ashley",
   "detail": null,
   "source_group": "for_authors"
  }
 ],
 "number_sets": [
  {
   "set": "profile.settled",
   "entity": "e-f5750b82a0033a44cb6cb1bb",
   "value": 236,
   "where": "coverage",
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
  },
  {
   "set": "profile.predictions",
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   "value": 608,
   "where": "coverage",
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
  },
  {
   "set": "profile.predictions",
   "entity": "e-f5750b82a0033a44cb6cb1bb",
   "value": 608,
   "where": "picks",
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
  },
  {
   "set": "profile.part.live",
   "entity": "e-f5750b82a0033a44cb6cb1bb",
   "value": 15,
   "where": "origin",
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
  },
  {
   "set": "profile.part.archived",
   "entity": "e-f5750b82a0033a44cb6cb1bb",
   "value": 105,
   "where": "origin-archived",
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
  },
  {
   "set": "profile.part.found_after",
   "entity": "e-f5750b82a0033a44cb6cb1bb",
   "value": 66,
   "where": null,
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
  },
  {
   "set": "profile.checked.live",
   "entity": "e-f5750b82a0033a44cb6cb1bb",
   "value": 31,
   "where": "origin",
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
  },
  {
   "set": "profile.checked.archived",
   "entity": "e-f5750b82a0033a44cb6cb1bb",
   "value": 138,
   "where": "origin-archived",
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
  },
  {
   "set": "profile.window",
   "entity": "e-f5750b82a0033a44cb6cb1bb",
   "value": 15,
   "where": "calculation",
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
   "label": true
  },
  {
   "set": "profile.checked",
   "entity": "e-f5750b82a0033a44cb6cb1bb",
   "value": 169,
   "where": "trust-level",
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
   "label": true
  }
 ]
}