{ "schema_name": "page", "schema_version": "2.0", "page_type": "author", "url": "/authors/tom-hill/", "canonical": "/authors/tom-hill/", "language": "en", "hreflang": [], "translations": [], "heading": "Tom Hill: Football Prediction Record", "description": "11 settled picks by Tom Hill archived before kick-off across 8 matches, 17 Aug 2024 – 22 Feb 2026: −25.8% reconstructed at archived prices.", "first_paragraph": { "body": "Forecast Record restored 11 settled archived picks by Tom Hill from copies archived before kick-off, across 8 matches between 17 August 2024 and 22 February 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned −25.8% on the total staked. Of the 24 predictions we hold for Tom Hill, 14 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 10 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "key_number": "−25.8%", "data": "2026-11-07", "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot", "brand": "Forecast Record" }, "indexable": true, "noindex_reason": null, "indexing_threshold": { "settled_count": 11, "date_count": 7, "required_settled": 10, "required_dates": 2, "live_count": 0, "restored_count": 11, "of_them_archived": 8 }, "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z", "content_hash": null, "meaning_hash": "0deee6906a313db0e723cf1a771849f54925fc4b45acc27d53aaf375cc724f16", "dependency_group": "author:e-ad6cf83fb768c5f16139a437", "release_id": "20261107-195223", "markup": [ { "type_code": "WebPage", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Organization", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Person", "allowed": true, "cause": null } ], "exports": [ { "type_code": "json", "url": "/authors/tom-hill/index.json", "bytes": null }, { "type_code": "csv", "url": "/authors/tom-hill/picks.csv", "bytes": null } ], "modules": { "affiliate": true, "api": true, "compare_yourself": false }, "affiliate_block": { "container": true, "request_url": "/partnery/moi", "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.", "page_category": "author" }, "restrictions": { "name_withdrawn": false, "tracker_number": null, "withdrawn_quotes": [], "removed_at": null, "cause": null, "suspended_records": [], "withdrawal_log_number": 0 }, "page_links": { "methodology": "/methodology/", "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/", "source_coverage": "/coverage/", "corrections_log": "/corrections/", "api": "/api/", "claim": "/claim/" }, "entity": { "id": "e-ad6cf83fb768c5f16139a437", "public_name": "Tom Hill", "tracker_number": 1529, "status": "active", "inactive_since": null, "verified_creator": false, "observation_period": { "since": "2026-09-28", "until": "2026-10-14" }, "platform_list": [ { "medium": "website", "handle": null, "url": null, "link_confirmed": false, "show": true } ], "comment": null }, "headline_number": { "metric": { "metric_id": "p-e-ad6cf83fb768c5f16139a437-roi-market-price-90d-z99", "code_name": "roi_market_price", "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot", "window_kind": "90d", "window_from": "2026-08-09", "window_to": "2026-11-07", "amount": null, "unit": "percent", "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "no pick in this window has been settled", "n_bets": 0, "n_events": 0, "n_void": null, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "ci_method": "not_estimated", "price_source": "market_price", "coverage_percent": null, "breakdown": [], "methodology_version": "2.2", "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "enough_for_ranking": false, "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot" }, "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 0 settled picks across 0 matches", "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, "metrics": [], "history": [], "simulation": { "series_key": null, "series_label": "No level stake placed", "bankroll_hundredths": 1000000, "reserve_hundredths": 0, "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000, "initial_hundredths": 1000000, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "top_up_count": 0, "profit_hundredths": 0, "rewards_off": null, "data_points": [], "top_ups": [], "rule": "Every tracked author starts with 10,000 points and stakes 100 per qualifying pick. This author has 0 settled bets, so the bankroll stands at its starting value." }, "simulations": [], "completeness": { "detected": 75, "recognised": 24, "accepted": 17, "executed": 17, "calculated": 17, "gaps": [ { "cause": "not_supported", "figure": 4 }, { "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages", "figure": 3 } ] }, "record_counts": { "dictionary_version": "1", "statements": 75, "of_them_restored": 75, "not_predictions": { "opinions": 9, "not_about_a_match": 42, "unclassified": 0 }, "predictions": 24, "predictions_restored": 24, "matches": 0, "admitted": 17, "qualifying_picks": 17, "qualifying_picks_restored": 17, "settled_picks": 17, "settled_picks_restored": 17, "series_list": [ { "code_name": "retro_market_closing", "derived": false, "is_restored": true, "qualifying_picks": 5, "settled_picks": 5, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 0, "matches": 3, "operations_settled": 5, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "retro-1.0" ], "display_name": "Restored, at the 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false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:05:39.712Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "opinion", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-12-14T16:02:03.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:05:39.712Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over 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"medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241214164623id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/premier-league-match-predictions-odds-tips-aPaRD9B6IKdC/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Tom Hill", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "987f16e63d28ff284a8e38c9a335ce4c7b550c10f6e94c88d269274689317593", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:05:39.712Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "opinion", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-12-14T16:02:03.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:05:39.712Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-179b11c5f49edbcff3df02d0", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-179b11c5f49edbcff3df02d0", "quote_text": "Maresca's men have scored at least three goals in four consecutive games and they face a Brentford side who have kept only one clean sheet in the league all season.", "fragment_from": 1646, "fragment_to": 1810, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241214164623id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/premier-league-match-predictions-odds-tips-aPaRD9B6IKdC/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Tom Hill", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "987f16e63d28ff284a8e38c9a335ce4c7b550c10f6e94c88d269274689317593", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:05:39.712Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-12-14T16:02:03.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:05:39.712Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-09638e90ef701fee028ff1a9", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-09638e90ef701fee028ff1a9", "quote_text": "Chelsea are unbeaten in nine outings in all competitions and seven in the Premier League and they have been racking up the goals domestically.", "fragment_from": 1502, "fragment_to": 1644, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241214164623id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/premier-league-match-predictions-odds-tips-aPaRD9B6IKdC/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Tom Hill", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "987f16e63d28ff284a8e38c9a335ce4c7b550c10f6e94c88d269274689317593", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:05:39.712Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-12-14T16:02:03.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:05:39.712Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-7d9ef29797d5100100c71da8", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-7d9ef29797d5100100c71da8", "quote_text": "The Blues' 3-1 win over Astana in the Europa 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"stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-12-14T16:02:03.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:05:39.712Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-ad34685339d90cfeffe7cd10", "url": "/authors/tom-hill/picks/2/#pick-n-ad34685339d90cfeffe7cd10", "quote_text": "Chelsea to win & both teams to score\n2pts 13-10 bet365, Hills", "fragment_from": 3001, "fragment_to": 3062, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241214164623id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/premier-league-match-predictions-odds-tips-aPaRD9B6IKdC/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Tom Hill", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "987f16e63d28ff284a8e38c9a335ce4c7b550c10f6e94c88d269274689317593", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2024-12-14T16:02:03.000Z", "detected_at": 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"methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "8f61cd6b1e3fe2df9ba17714de843858fafc31c6b216cdde3213b830ec737e15", "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Match result and over/under 3.5 goals", "choice": "Manchester City to win and over 3.5 goals", "decimal_odds": "4.4000", "odds_role": "closing_odds", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:21:46.577Z", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Tom Hill", "publisher": "racingpost.com", "forecaster": "Tom Hill", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/brighton-vs-manchester-city-predictions-team-news-betting-tips-odds-and-bet-builder-aUpV63d0vFaq/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null } ], "excluded_from_feed": { "ads": 2, "service": 0, "ruleset_version": "3" }, "standing": null, "retro": { "restored_total": 11, "of_them_archived_pre_match": 8, "found_post_match": 3, "of_them_source_reported": 0, "live_count": 0, "date_count": 6, "span_from": "2024-12-15", "span_to": "2026-02-22", "line_text": "restored history: 11, of which pre-match archive 8", "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League matches between 15 December 2024 and 22 February 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 11. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 8. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 3. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.", "precision": { "n": 11, "share": "0.2727" }, "series_list": [ { "code_name": "retro_author_price", "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price", "n": 6, "roi": "-25.8333", "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "cause": null }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing", "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price", "n": 5, "roi": "-61.9820", "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "cause": null }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm", "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "n": 10, "roi": "-40.3000", "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "cause": null }, { "code_name": "retro_derived_sm", "display_name": "Restored score forecast: result implied by the score, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "n": 1, "roi": "91.0000", "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "cause": null } ], "clv": { "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above" }, "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "leagues": [ "Premier League" ], "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 10 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 1 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged.", "score_accuracy": { "n": 1, "share": "0.0" } }, "late": null, "price_vs_market": { "contract_version": "1", "threshold_percent": "5", "rows": [ { "basis": "closing", "basis_words": "the closing market price of the same selection (restored history)", "basis_short": "Closing market price (restored)", "compared": 3, "above": 2, "above_share_percent": "66.7", "below": 1, "within": 0, "median_difference_percent": "5.8", "not_comparable": 0, "disputed": 0, "status": "calculated", "sentence": "The author's stated price against the closing price of the same selection: median +5.8% over 3 picks. The price available to followers is the market price, shown separately." } ], "examples": [ { "url": "/authors/tom-hill/picks/2/#pick-n-b52f87efb5cb10a76e8c278e", "basis": "closing", "stated": "2.15", "market": "1.90", "difference_percent": "13.1" }, { "url": "/authors/tom-hill/picks/2/#pick-n-62fe34b5045a53ae240df94c", "basis": "closing", "stated": "2.70", "market": "2.90", "difference_percent": "-6.9" } ], "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way." }, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "racingpost.com", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241214164623id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/premier-league-match-predictions-odds-tips-aPaRD9B6IKdC/" }, "observed_from": "2026-09-28", "observed_to": "2026-10-14", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "restored": true, "headline_kind": "historical_simulation", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 11, "matches": 8, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -28350, "staked_hundredths": 110000, "return_percent": "-25.77", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2024-08-17", "period_to": "2026-02-22", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "short_history": true, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 11 settled archived picks by Tom Hill from copies archived before kick-off, across 8 matches between 17 August 2024 and 22 February 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned −25.8% on the total staked. Of the 24 predictions we hold for Tom Hill, 14 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 10 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled archived picks", "value": "11", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": null }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "8", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "−283.50 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "value": "−25.8%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": null } ], "limitations": [ "This page combines Tom Hill across 2 platforms. The record above counts each prediction once, even when the same pick (match, market and selection) appeared on more than one platform; each platform keeps its own total under “Where Tom Hill publishes”.", "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included." ], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [ { "date": "2024-08-17", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000, "n": 2 }, { "date": "2024-09-21", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -8050, "n": 3 }, { "date": "2024-09-26", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -18050, "n": 4 }, { "date": "2024-12-15", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -4700, "n": 5 }, { "date": "2025-08-17", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -15600, "n": 8 }, { "date": "2025-11-01", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -8350, "n": 9 }, { "date": "2026-02-22", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -28350, "n": 11 } ], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": null, "archived": { "part": "archived", "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.", "settled_picks": 11, "matches": 8, "match_dates": 7, "period_from": "2024-08-17", "period_to": "2026-02-22", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": -28350, "low": { "date": "2026-02-22", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -28350, "after_picks": 11 }, "high": { "date": "2024-12-15", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -4700, "after_picks": 5 }, "line_drawn": true, "steps": [ { "date": "2024-08-17", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000, "n": 2, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2024-09-21", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -8050, "n": 3, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2024-09-26", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -18050, "n": 4, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2024-12-15", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -4700, "n": 5, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-08-17", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -15600, "n": 8, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2025-11-01", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -8350, "n": 9, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-02-22", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -28350, "n": 11, "picks": 2 } ] } }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record restored 11 settled archived picks by Tom Hill from copies archived before kick-off, across 8 matches between 17 August 2024 and 22 February 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned −25.8% on the total staked. Of the 24 predictions we hold for Tom Hill, 14 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 10 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/tom-hill/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "retro-1.1" }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 24, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 0, "proven_predictions": 14, "proven_checked": 12, "proven_measured": 11, "proven_dates": 7, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 14, "checked": 12, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": { "settled_picks": 11, "void": 0, "matches": 8, "net_points_hundredths": -28350, "staked_hundredths": 110000, "return_percent": "-25.77", "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval", "period_from": "2024-08-17", "period_to": "2026-02-22", "method_version": "retro-1.1" }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "retro_author_price", "picks": 7, "return_main_percent": "-8.00", "return_other_percent": "-5.29", "settled_excluding_void": 7, "net_main_points_hundredths": -5600, "net_other_points_hundredths": -3700, "period_from": "2024-08-17", "period_to": "2026-02-22" }, { "price": "Closing price, aggregator", "series_code": "retro_market_closing", "picks": 4, "return_main_percent": "-52.25", "return_other_percent": "-52.48", "settled_excluding_void": 4, "net_main_points_hundredths": -20900, "net_other_points_hundredths": -20991, "period_from": "2025-08-17", "period_to": "2026-02-22" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 12, "priced": 11 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 11, "won": 4, "won_percent": "36.4", "implied_percent": "43.7", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Over/under goals", "won": 0, "picks": 4, "implied_percent": "50.9" }, { "market": "Match result", "won": 1, "picks": 3, "implied_percent": "38.5" }, { "market": "Correct score", "won": 0, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "14.8" }, { "market": "Result and both teams to score", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "42.8" }, { "market": "Team goals", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "45.6" }, { "market": "Win to nil", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "58.0" } ] } }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 10, "checked": 5, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": { "settled_picks": 5, "void": 0, "matches": 4, "net_points_hundredths": -23600, "staked_hundredths": 50000, "return_percent": "-47.20", "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval", "period_from": "2024-12-07", "period_to": "2025-12-30", "method_version": "retro-1.1" }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "retro_author_price", "picks": 4, "return_main_percent": "-34.00", "return_other_percent": "-45.00", "settled_excluding_void": 4, "net_main_points_hundredths": -13600, "net_other_points_hundredths": -18000, "period_from": "2024-12-07", "period_to": "2025-12-30" }, { "price": "Closing price, aggregator", "series_code": "retro_market_closing", "picks": 1, "return_main_percent": "-100.00", "return_other_percent": "-100.00", "settled_excluding_void": 1, "net_main_points_hundredths": -10000, "net_other_points_hundredths": -10000, "period_from": "2025-12-30", "period_to": "2025-12-30" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 5, "priced": 5 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 5, "won": 1, "won_percent": "20.0", "implied_percent": "38.4", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Cards over/under", "won": 0, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "45.5" }, { "market": "Match result", "won": 0, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "47.6" }, { "market": "Over/under goals", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "37.9" }, { "market": "Result and both teams to score", "won": 0, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "38.5" }, { "market": "Result and total goals", "won": 0, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "22.7" } ] } } ] }, "live_alongside": null, "headline_record_ids": [ "n-217c04d1eca7727b723a0d84", "n-400de21c0ecc6f5aa35251d0", "n-467814994672d741d7282617", "n-62fe34b5045a53ae240df94c", "n-985fc97d2b2fd3f13dfd98e1", "n-ad34685339d90cfeffe7cd10", "n-b21486a1f5e6b1da4aab6c0c", "n-b52f87efb5cb10a76e8c278e", "n-ba1735adaabf3848e72890fb", "n-c8e53f02687bbd78866379f8", "n-e1ae4ea682b88e0eae4caa86" ], "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 17 August 2024 – 22 February 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1", "record_from": "2024-08-17", "record_to": "2026-02-22" }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-b21486a1f5e6b1da4aab6c0c", "url": "/authors/tom-hill/picks/2/#pick-n-b21486a1f5e6b1da4aab6c0c", "match": "Sunderland v Fulham", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2026-02-22T14:00:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": -5235.4, "market_code": "total", "author_said": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: under 2.5", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Lost", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "1-3", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": -10000, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored", "author_price": null, "settled_price": "1.8100", "published_at": "2026-02-21T16:50:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T17:26:57.816Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": true, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-b21486a1f5e6b1da4aab6c0c", "quote_text": "Under three goals", "fragment_from": 3542, "fragment_to": 3559, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260221164529id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/sunderland-vs-fulham-predictions-team-news-betting-tips-odds-and-bet-builder-anCMK2f4uCyl/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Tom Hill", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": 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null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-08-16T09:32:43.000Z", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2024-08-15T07:16:57.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2024-08-15T07:16:57.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:05:32.851Z", "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-08-16T09:32:43.000Z", "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": "Added to our record on 9 Oct 2026", "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals", "choice": "over 3.5", "author_odds": "2.9", "market_key": "total", "choice_key": "over", "period": "match", "line": "3.5", "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: over 3.5 at 2.9" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "0-0", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Portsmouth 0-0 Luton Town." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "b852e7a23a621d98e0305ae128a1515e737d0e6ef2e1b79e838f36eceed645a2", "series_key": "retro_author_price", "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals", "choice": "over 3.5", "decimal_odds": "2.9", "odds_role": "author_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:05.853Z", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "5fb2baad70753768bee4e4b299bbc89f569305ea5e3f93869193dbf27245511a", "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals", "choice": "over 3.5", "decimal_odds": "2.8550", "odds_role": "closing_odds", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:05.858Z", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Tom Hill", "publisher": "livescore.com", "forecaster": "Tom Hill", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.livescore.com/en/news/amp/portsmouth-luton-predictions-championship-2024081507165752399/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "over 3.5 (Over/Under 3.5 goals)" } }, { "record_id": "n-dce0e6855b737f784943701c", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Raul Jimenez 1+ fouls committed", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-02-21T16:50:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T17:26:57.816Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-8c15bfff84111762a5c53a3d", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Lucas Paqueta over 0.5 fouls", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-12-29T16:00:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:22:36.606Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-4e7ddf586ca5af0c31b8cecd", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Yasin Ayari over 1.5 shots", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-12-29T16:00:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:22:36.606Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-7519081a495689d8c7bfb06c", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Jarrod Bowen over 1.5 shots on target", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-12-29T16:00:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:22:36.606Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-a7b1c6dd30769ac05956fd78", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Yasin Ayari 1+ shot", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-08-30T13:01:30.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:12:06.105Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-180340a9ff51b03b06822771", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Tijjani Reijnders to commit 1+ foul", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-08-30T13:01:30.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:12:06.105Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-ede6c638fe41fdcabcd0d8be", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Morgan Gibbs-White over 0.5 fouls", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-08-16T18:03:45.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T17:56:28.980Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null } ], "lead_time": { "contract_version": 1, "threshold_hours": 2.0, "picks": 17, "before_kickoff": 0, "after_kickoff": 17, "at_least_2h": 0, "share_2h_plus": 0.0, "median_hours": null, "min_hours": null, "max_hours": null, "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off." }, "baseline": { "contract_version": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "rule": "recorded-line-1.0", "state": "none", "picks": 0, "settled_picks_all": 0, "excluded": { "market_without_favourite": 0, "no_recorded_line": 0, "favourite_not_settled": 0 }, "staked_hundredths": 0, "author_net_hundredths": 0, "favourite_net_hundredths": 0, "difference_hundredths": 0, "author_return_percent": null, "favourite_return_percent": null, "author_hit_rate": null, "favourite_hit_rate": null, "picked_favourite_share": null, "by_market": [], "return_over_time": [], "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out." }, "pagination": { "per_page": 20, "total": 24, "pages": 3, "page_urls": [ "/authors/tom-hill/", "/authors/tom-hill/picks/2/", "/authors/tom-hill/picks/3/" ], "groups": { "settled": 17, "pending": 0, "excluded": 7 }, "continuation": "by_time", "page": 1, "first": 1, "last": 20, "author_url": "/authors/tom-hill/", "current": false }, "title_tag": "Tom Hill Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources", "calculator": null, "person": { "person_id": "o-ad6cf83fb768c5f16139a437", "type_code": "individual", "name_shown": "Tom Hill", "main_entity": "e-ad6cf83fb768c5f16139a437", "identity": { "status": "not_verified", "is_verified": false, "when": null, "source_list": [] }, "platform_list": [ { "entity_ref": "e-ad6cf83fb768c5f16139a437", "medium": "Racing Post", "channel": "section pages", "domain": "racingpost.com", "source_info": "racing-post", "byline": "Tom Hill", "url": "/sources/racing-post/", "summary": { "statements": 40, "predictions": 18, "settled_picks": 7, "headline_kind": "historical_simulation", "return_percent": -14.71, "headline_part": "archived", "period_from": "2026-09-28", "period_to": "2026-10-01" } }, { "entity_ref": "e-9766547ea5162fc7ba23e907", "medium": "LiveScore", "channel": "section pages", "domain": "livescore.com", "source_info": "livescore", "byline": "Tom Hill", "url": null, "summary": { "statements": 35, "predictions": 6, "settled_picks": 4, "headline_kind": "historical_simulation", "return_percent": -45.12, "headline_part": "archived", "period_from": "2026-10-09", "period_to": "2026-10-14" } } ], "previously": [], "trust_tier": "probation" }, "data_revision": { "data_version": "2026-10-15.5", "updated": "2026-10-15", "current_release": "2026-11-07.2", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "price_rule": "reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "sample": { "settled_picks": 11, "matches": 8, "void": 0, "period_from": "2024-08-17", "period_to": "2026-02-22", "composition_hash": "80a43e7ac7361a122570e958e9d3b632cb18915112d42f701866cd30b82fe569" }, "changes_url": "#changes", "corrections_url": "/corrections/" }, "number_changes": [ { "id": "zc-deb1e93a655937ca63ed", "at": "2026-10-15T18:43:19.205Z", "data_version": "2026-10-15.5", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-15.4", "url": "/authors/tom-hill/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.2", "return_percent": "-14.71", "settled_picks": 7, "matches": 4, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "5d5ae6ac44532aec10f388b238a9bd7e5eb2ae2f45d71cff45ee477fc054cf81", "text": "−103.00 points on 7 settled picks across 4 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-15.5", "return_percent": "-25.77", "settled_picks": 11, "matches": 8, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "80a43e7ac7361a122570e958e9d3b632cb18915112d42f701866cd30b82fe569", "text": "−25.77% on 11 settled picks across 8 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Added 4 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 4, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-35d8594877666719b6b6", "at": "2026-10-09T12:49:36.723Z", "data_version": "2026-10-09.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "url": "/authors/tom-hill/", "category": "method_changed", "category_words": "Method changed", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "return_percent": "-46.94", "settled_picks": 8, "matches": 5, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "be1d9149080e04cf3f36dee9357da78e2a6a19fa0cf3d3ca55d95b07f206f6c4", "text": "−375.50 points on 8 settled picks across 5 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.2", "return_percent": "-14.71", "settled_picks": 7, "matches": 4, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "5d5ae6ac44532aec10f388b238a9bd7e5eb2ae2f45d71cff45ee477fc054cf81", "text": "−103.00 points on 7 settled picks across 4 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, a historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first found after the match no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (8 settled picks). Now: historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (7 settled picks).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 2, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-9dead0651eb0cf7711b6" }, { "id": "zc-c8de30d2838a700a2cc2", "at": "2026-10-09T11:08:54.367Z", "data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-09-30.1", "url": "/authors/tom-hill/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-09-30.1", "return_percent": "-72.71", "settled_picks": 7, "matches": 4, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "698754e80cb0a52122beac90d020939ae49fb8643eedd1c8d2adc14e4826b481", "text": "−509.00 points on 7 settled picks across 4 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "return_percent": "-46.94", "settled_picks": 8, "matches": 5, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "be1d9149080e04cf3f36dee9357da78e2a6a19fa0cf3d3ca55d95b07f206f6c4", "text": "−375.50 points on 8 settled picks across 5 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null } ], "author_card": { "body": "Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 24 predictions · last change 9 October 2026", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/tom-hill/", "s": "2026-09-28", "prediction_count": 24, "refreshed_at": "2026-10-09", "html": "Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 24 predictions · last change 9 October 2026" }, "trust": { "tier": "probation", "in_words": "Probation", "settled_count": 12, "days": 555, "weeks": 7, "archive": false, "in_review": false, "own_page": true, "won_count": 4, "first_settled_on": "2024-08-17", "products_in_level": 1, "rule": { "tracked": { "min_settled": 30, "min_days": 30, "min_distinct_weeks": 2, "no_violations": true }, "established": { "min_settled": 100, "min_days": 90 } }, "show": true }, "colleagues": [ { "source_code": "racing-post", "source_name": "Racing Post", "source_url": "/sources/racing-post/", "label": "Also at Racing Post", "authors_total": 15, "authors": [ { "name": "James Milton", "url": "/authors/james-milton/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 124, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Liam Flin", "url": "/authors/liam-flin/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 58, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Jack Ogalbe", "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 44, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Ian Wilkerson", "url": "/authors/ian-wilkerson/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 37, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Dan Childs", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 24, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Joe Casey", "url": "/authors/joe-casey/", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 19, 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