{ "schema_name": "page", "schema_version": "2.0", "page_type": "author", "url": "/authors/steve-davies/", "canonical": "/authors/steve-davies/", "language": "en", "hreflang": [], "translations": [], "heading": "Steve Davies: Football Prediction Record", "description": "14 settled picks by Steve Davies archived before kick-off across 10 matches, 10 Aug 2024 – 3 May 2026: −28.9% reconstructed at archived prices.", "first_paragraph": { "body": "Forecast Record restored 14 settled archived picks by Steve Davies from copies archived before kick-off, across 10 matches between 10 August 2024 and 3 May 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned −28.9% on the total staked. Live record so far: won 0 of 2 settled live picks at our recorded market price. Of the 288 predictions we hold for Steve Davies, 136 are linked to matches: 8 were recorded by us before kick-off, 52 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 76 first found after the match; 4 are excluded while the attribution is under review. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "key_number": "−28.9%", "data": "2026-11-07", "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot", "brand": "Forecast Record" }, "indexable": true, "noindex_reason": null, "indexing_threshold": { "settled_count": 16, "date_count": 12, "required_settled": 10, "required_dates": 2, "live_count": 0, "restored_count": 32, "of_them_archived": 15 }, "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z", "content_hash": null, "meaning_hash": "88e696d5994f276b03b0e42fc72886636f7ce7d00e5ea95918cbca6021db47b3", "dependency_group": "author:e-1a76e5115e9f0de85ee389c2", "release_id": "20261107-195223", "markup": [ { "type_code": "WebPage", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Organization", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Person", "allowed": true, "cause": null } ], "exports": [ { "type_code": "json", "url": "/authors/steve-davies/index.json", "bytes": null }, { "type_code": "csv", "url": "/authors/steve-davies/picks.csv", "bytes": null } ], "modules": { "affiliate": true, "api": true, "compare_yourself": false }, "affiliate_block": { "container": true, "request_url": "/partnery/moi", "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.", "page_category": "author" }, "restrictions": { "name_withdrawn": false, "tracker_number": null, "withdrawn_quotes": [], "removed_at": null, "cause": null, "suspended_records": [], "withdrawal_log_number": 0 }, "page_links": { "methodology": "/methodology/", "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/", "source_coverage": "/coverage/", "corrections_log": "/corrections/", "api": "/api/", "claim": "/claim/" }, "entity": { "id": "e-1a76e5115e9f0de85ee389c2", "public_name": "Steve Davies", "tracker_number": 1522, "status": "active", "inactive_since": null, "verified_creator": false, "observation_period": { "since": "2026-09-28", "until": "2026-11-07" }, "platform_list": [ { "medium": "website", "handle": null, "url": null, "link_confirmed": false, "show": true } ], "comment": null }, "headline_number": { "metric": { "metric_id": "p-e-1a76e5115e9f0de85ee389c2-roi-market-price-90d-z99", "code_name": "roi_market_price", "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot", "window_kind": "90d", "window_from": "2026-08-09", "window_to": "2026-11-07", "amount": "-100.0000", "unit": "percent", "data_status": "calculated", "cause": null, "n_bets": 2, "n_events": 2, "n_void": 0, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "ci_method": "not_estimated", "price_source": "market_price", "coverage_percent": null, "breakdown": [], "methodology_version": "2.2", "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "enough_for_ranking": false, "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "series_uid": null }, "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 2 settled picks across 2 matches", "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, "metrics": [], "history": [], "simulation": { "series_key": null, "series_label": "No level stake placed", "bankroll_hundredths": 1000000, "reserve_hundredths": 0, "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000, "initial_hundredths": 1000000, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "top_up_count": 0, "profit_hundredths": 0, "rewards_off": null, "data_points": [], "top_ups": [], "rule": "Every tracked author starts with 10,000 points and stakes 100 per qualifying pick. This author has 0 settled bets, so the bankroll stands at its starting value." }, "simulations": [], "completeness": { "detected": 1475, "recognised": 288, "accepted": 72, "executed": 67, "calculated": 50, "gaps": [ { "cause": "not_supported", "figure": 189 }, { "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages", "figure": 26 }, { "cause": "not_checked", "figure": 5 }, { "cause": "other reading", "figure": 1 } ] }, "record_counts": { "dictionary_version": "1", "statements": 1475, "of_them_restored": 489, "not_predictions": { "opinions": 306, "not_about_a_match": 881, "unclassified": 0 }, "predictions": 288, "predictions_restored": 132, "matches": 5, "admitted": 72, "qualifying_picks": 67, "qualifying_picks_restored": 64, "settled_picks": 50, "settled_picks_restored": 47, "series_list": [ { "code_name": "market_price", "derived": false, "is_restored": false, "qualifying_picks": 2, "settled_picks": 2, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 0, "matches": 2, "operations_settled": 2, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "2.2" ], "display_name": "At an independent odds snapshot" }, { "code_name": "author_price", "derived": false, "is_restored": false, "qualifying_picks": 3, "settled_picks": 3, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 0, "matches": 3, "operations_settled": 3, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "2.2" ], "display_name": "At the author's stated price" }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing", "derived": false, "is_restored": true, "qualifying_picks": 7, "settled_picks": 6, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 1, "matches": 6, "operations_settled": 6, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "retro-1.0" ], "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price" }, { "code_name": "retro_author_price", "derived": false, "is_restored": true, "qualifying_picks": 41, "settled_picks": 30, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 11, "matches": 26, "operations_settled": 30, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "retro-1.0" ], "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price" }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm", "derived": false, "is_restored": true, "qualifying_picks": 48, "settled_picks": 39, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 9, "matches": 32, "operations_settled": 39, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "retro-1.1" ], "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)" } ], "gaps": [ { "code_name": "not_supported", "cause": "not_supported", "figure": 189 }, { "code_name": "after_match", "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages", "figure": 26 }, { "code_name": "not_checked", "cause": "not_checked", "figure": 5 }, { "code_name": "ambiguous", "cause": "other reading", "figure": 1 } ], "duplicates": 3, "junk": { "ads": 64, "service": 8 }, "dictionary_url": "/methodology/#words" }, "evidence_items": [ { "observation_id": "n-d5ba95c11e14ddd5a8755999", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-d5ba95c11e14ddd5a8755999", "quote_text": "they are acutely aware of the importance of a match such as this against the division's bottom side.", "fragment_from": 3128, "fragment_to": 3228, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241104190250id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/plymouth-vs-portsmouth-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-tc999-aiwO45F0a6Y9/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Steve Davies", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "2d78a443a9ae721a4a4ba64f2fd2e13cb3f9a23449fc24f91fc3d12eeb1b6d58", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:13:23.676Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "opinion", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-11-04T17:42:46.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:13:23.676Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-251ca0ae59194d916cf6e854", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-251ca0ae59194d916cf6e854", "quote_text": "this game is his priority.", "fragment_from": 2667, "fragment_to": 2693, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241104190250id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/plymouth-vs-portsmouth-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-tc999-aiwO45F0a6Y9/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Steve Davies", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "2d78a443a9ae721a4a4ba64f2fd2e13cb3f9a23449fc24f91fc3d12eeb1b6d58", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:13:23.676Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "opinion", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-11-04T17:42:46.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:13:23.676Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-dd172937390e9c754279f8e9", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-dd172937390e9c754279f8e9", "quote_text": "And Pompey are well aware of the threat Argyle possess at Home Park in front of their own fans.", "fragment_from": 2448, "fragment_to": 2543, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241104190250id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/plymouth-vs-portsmouth-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-tc999-aiwO45F0a6Y9/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Steve Davies", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "2d78a443a9ae721a4a4ba64f2fd2e13cb3f9a23449fc24f91fc3d12eeb1b6d58", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:13:23.676Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "opinion", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-11-04T17:42:46.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:13:23.676Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-ef412f549e64dd77d8dce448", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-ef412f549e64dd77d8dce448", "quote_text": "it's a task they may not relish.", "fragment_from": 2071, "fragment_to": 2103, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241104190250id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/plymouth-vs-portsmouth-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-tc999-aiwO45F0a6Y9/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Steve Davies", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "2d78a443a9ae721a4a4ba64f2fd2e13cb3f9a23449fc24f91fc3d12eeb1b6d58", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:13:23.676Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "opinion", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-11-04T17:42:46.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:13:23.676Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-0c140a4737d6f3eaa13c63bd", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-0c140a4737d6f3eaa13c63bd", "quote_text": "Ladbrokes are offering £25 in free bets when you bet £5 on Plymouth vs Portsmouth.", "fragment_from": 1132, "fragment_to": 1214, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241104190250id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/plymouth-vs-portsmouth-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-tc999-aiwO45F0a6Y9/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Steve Davies", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "2d78a443a9ae721a4a4ba64f2fd2e13cb3f9a23449fc24f91fc3d12eeb1b6d58", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:13:23.676Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-11-04T17:42:46.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:13:23.676Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-46360e9ae7d3433c66f4f530", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-46360e9ae7d3433c66f4f530", "quote_text": "Alexis Mac Allister is suspended.", "fragment_from": 5718, "fragment_to": 5751, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241209173628id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/champions-league/girona-liverpool-predictions-betting-tips-and-odds-tc999-aoOzL4D8Eirc/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Steve Davies", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "7eb66801bf5eae1108418fb043b2d20663c8b2261ebfde40c88855ea5687b194", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:07:20.441Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-12-09T16:40:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:07:20.441Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-88ff0faf86ef21e32ede6ff7", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-88ff0faf86ef21e32ede6ff7", "quote_text": "Key midfielder Yangel Herrera and forward Victor Tshyankov will miss the visit of Liverpool through injury.", "fragment_from": 5423, 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"author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-0001a3c3cd5b900db054c562", "url": "/authors/steve-davies/picks/9/#pick-n-0001a3c3cd5b900db054c562", "quote_text": "Under 3.5 goals", "fragment_from": 6840, "fragment_to": 6855, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241209173628id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/champions-league/girona-liverpool-predictions-betting-tips-and-odds-tc999-aoOzL4D8Eirc/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Steve Davies", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": 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"measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "in_words": "Won: the final score was Girona 0-1 Liverpool." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "5cde2342d68e17541eadc4334a5e583d570221ea3f52fbc45713f30357fc962c", "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals", "choice": "under 3.5", "decimal_odds": "1.7500", "odds_role": "closing_odds", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 7500, "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:27.430Z", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Steve Davies", "publisher": "racingpost.com", "forecaster": "Steve Davies", 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null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-12-17T16:03:44.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:05:14.414Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": 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"url": "/evidence/?pick=n-35a78881fed876dac38d98ea", "quote_text": "take a rusty, reshuffled Ipswich side to edge a win.", "fragment_from": 3675, "fragment_to": 3727, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250811163559id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl-cup/bromley-vs-ipswich-predictions-tips-and-bet-builder-an9ux4X1nhAM/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Steve Davies", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "18ef3ac614fc617b082a20bea9c251ed7d0dafc2e2402da829888cf118ec60d5", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2025-08-11T16:16:09.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T16:06:09.908Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "opinion", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2025-08-11T16:16:09.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2025-08-11T16:16:09.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T16:06:09.908Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-213fb2ce9ab8d0d62e789318", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-213fb2ce9ab8d0d62e789318", "quote_text": "expect their class to tell but not necessarily manifest itself in an inflated scoreline.", "fragment_from": 3176, "fragment_to": 3264, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250811163559id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl-cup/bromley-vs-ipswich-predictions-tips-and-bet-builder-an9ux4X1nhAM/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Steve Davies", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "18ef3ac614fc617b082a20bea9c251ed7d0dafc2e2402da829888cf118ec60d5", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2025-08-11T16:16:09.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T16:06:09.908Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "opinion", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2025-08-11T16:16:09.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2025-08-11T16:16:09.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T16:06:09.908Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null } ], "excluded_from_feed": { "ads": 13, "service": 0, "ruleset_version": "3" }, "standing": null, "retro": { "restored_total": 29, "of_them_archived_pre_match": 15, "found_post_match": 14, "of_them_source_reported": 0, "live_count": 0, "date_count": 16, "span_from": "2024-11-02", "span_to": "2026-05-17", "line_text": "restored history: 29, of which pre-match archive 15", "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League, Championship, League Cup, Champions League and Europa League matches between 2 November 2024 and 17 May 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 29. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 15. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 14. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.", "precision": { "n": 29, "share": "0.3793" }, "series_list": [ { "code_name": "retro_author_price", "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price", "n": 18, "roi": "-52.3611", "ci_low": "-90.4545", "ci_high": "2.0000", "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "cause": null }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing", "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price", "n": 3, "roi": "-28.3333", "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "cause": null }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm", "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "n": 24, "roi": "-12.0625", "ci_low": "-53.5625", "ci_high": "30.8750", "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "cause": null }, { "code_name": "retro_derived_sm", "display_name": "Restored score forecast: result implied by the score, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "n": 1, "roi": "-100.0000", "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "cause": null } ], "clv": { "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above" }, "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "leagues": [ "Premier League", "Championship", "League Cup", "Champions League", "Europa League" ], "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 7 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 22 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged.", "score_accuracy": { "n": 1, "share": "0.0" } }, "late": null, "price_vs_market": { "contract_version": "1", "threshold_percent": "5", "rows": [ { "basis": "closing", "basis_words": "the closing market price of the same selection (restored history)", "basis_short": "Closing market price (restored)", "compared": 3, "above": 0, "above_share_percent": "0.0", "below": 0, "within": 3, "median_difference_percent": "-2.2", "not_comparable": 0, "disputed": 0, "status": "calculated", "sentence": "The author's stated price against the closing price of the same selection: median −2.2% over 3 picks. The price available to followers is the market price, shown separately." } ], "examples": [], "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way." }, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "racingpost.com", "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/coventry-vs-brighton-odds-predictions-betting-tips-team-news-bet-builder-aeSBv4L8MQLY/" }, "observed_from": "2026-09-28", "observed_to": "2026-11-07", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "restored": true, "headline_kind": "historical_simulation", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 14, "matches": 10, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -40500, "staked_hundredths": 140000, "return_percent": "-28.93", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2024-08-10", "period_to": "2026-05-03", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "short_history": true, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 14 settled archived picks by Steve Davies from copies archived before kick-off, across 10 matches between 10 August 2024 and 3 May 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned −28.9% on the total staked. Live record so far: won 0 of 2 settled live picks at our recorded market price. Of the 288 predictions we hold for Steve Davies, 136 are linked to matches: 8 were recorded by us before kick-off, 52 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 76 first found after the match; 4 are excluded while the attribution is under review. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled archived picks", "value": "14", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": null }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "10", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "−405 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "value": "−28.9%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": "95% interval −82.5% to +30.4%" } ], "limitations": [ "This page combines Steve Davies across 3 platforms. The record above counts each prediction once, even when the same pick (match, market and selection) appeared on more than one platform; each platform keeps its own total under “Where Steve Davies publishes”.", "Most of this history was found after the matches. Of the 35 selections in this historical price series, 14 have a pre-match archive copy and 21 were first found after the match.", "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included.", "4 predictions are kept out of this record’s totals: the article byline and the named tipster differ." ], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [ { "date": "2024-08-10", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000, "n": 1 }, { "date": "2024-09-19", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000, "n": 2 }, { "date": "2024-12-10", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 2500, "n": 4 }, { "date": "2024-12-18", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 12500, "n": 5 }, { "date": "2025-08-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 23500, "n": 6 }, { "date": "2025-08-12", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 9500, "n": 9 }, { "date": "2025-08-23", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -500, "n": 10 }, { "date": "2025-10-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10500, "n": 11 }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20500, "n": 12 }, { "date": "2026-05-03", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -40500, "n": 14 } ], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": { "part": "live", "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.", "settled_picks": 2, "matches": 2, "match_dates": 2, "period_from": "2026-10-25", "period_to": "2026-10-31", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": -20000, "low": { "date": "2026-10-31", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000, "after_picks": 2 }, "high": { "date": "2026-10-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000, "after_picks": 1 }, "line_drawn": false, "steps": [ { "date": "2026-10-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000, "n": 1, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000, "n": 2, "picks": 1 } ] }, "archived": { "part": "archived", "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.", "settled_picks": 14, "matches": 10, "match_dates": 10, "period_from": "2024-08-10", "period_to": "2026-05-03", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": -40500, "low": { "date": "2026-05-03", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -40500, "after_picks": 14 }, "high": { "date": "2025-08-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 23500, "after_picks": 6 }, "line_drawn": true, "steps": [ { "date": "2024-08-10", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000, "n": 1, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2024-09-19", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000, "n": 2, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2024-12-10", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 2500, "n": 4, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2024-12-18", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 12500, "n": 5, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-08-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 23500, "n": 6, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-08-12", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 9500, "n": 9, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2025-08-23", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -500, "n": 10, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-10-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10500, "n": 11, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20500, "n": 12, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-05-03", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -40500, "n": 14, "picks": 2 } ] } }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record restored 14 settled archived picks by Steve Davies from copies archived before kick-off, across 10 matches between 10 August 2024 and 3 May 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned −28.9% on the total staked. Live record so far: won 0 of 2 settled live picks at our recorded market price. Of the 288 predictions we hold for Steve Davies, 136 are linked to matches: 8 were recorded by us before kick-off, 52 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 76 first found after the match; 4 are excluded while the attribution is under review. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/steve-davies/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "retro-1.1" }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 284, "under_review": 4, "no_match_linked": 148, "proven_predictions": 60, "proven_checked": 26, "proven_measured": 16, "proven_dates": 12, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 8, "checked": 8, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": { "settled_picks": 2, "void": 0, "matches": 2, "net_points_hundredths": -20000, "staked_hundredths": 20000, "return_percent": "-100.00", "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval", "period_from": "2026-10-25", "period_to": "2026-10-31", "method_version": "2.2", "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0", "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0", "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 0 }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "author_price", "picks": 2, "return_main_percent": "-100.00", "return_other_percent": "-100.00", "settled_excluding_void": 2, "net_main_points_hundredths": -20000, "net_other_points_hundredths": -20000, "period_from": "2026-10-25", "period_to": "2026-10-31" }, { "price": "Closing price", "series_code": "closing_live", "picks": 2, "return_main_percent": "-100.00", "return_other_percent": "-100.00", "settled_excluding_void": 2, "net_main_points_hundredths": -20000, "net_other_points_hundredths": -20000, "period_from": "2026-10-25", "period_to": "2026-10-31" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 8, "priced": 2 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 2, "won": 0, "won_percent": "0.0", "implied_percent": "45.6", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Match result", "won": 0, "picks": 2, "implied_percent": "45.6" } ] }, "reviewed_after": { "predictions": 5, "right": 4, "wrong": 1, "other": 0 } }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 52, "checked": 18, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": { "settled_picks": 14, "void": 0, "matches": 10, "net_points_hundredths": -40500, "staked_hundredths": 140000, "return_percent": "-28.93", "interval_low": "-82.50", "interval_high": "30.45", "interval_note": null, "period_from": "2024-08-10", "period_to": "2026-05-03", "method_version": "retro-1.1" }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "retro_author_price", "picks": 8, "return_main_percent": "-68.75", "return_other_percent": "-67.19", "settled_excluding_void": 8, "net_main_points_hundredths": -55000, "net_other_points_hundredths": -53750, "period_from": "2024-08-10", "period_to": "2026-05-03" }, { "price": "Closing price, aggregator", "series_code": "retro_market_closing", "picks": 1, "return_main_percent": "-100.00", "return_other_percent": "-100.00", "settled_excluding_void": 1, "net_main_points_hundredths": -10000, "net_other_points_hundredths": -10000, "period_from": "2026-05-03", "period_to": "2026-05-03" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 18, "priced": 14 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 14, "won": 5, "won_percent": "35.7", "implied_percent": "41.1", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Over/under goals", "won": 3, "picks": 4, "implied_percent": "48.3" }, { "market": "Match result", "won": 1, "picks": 3, "implied_percent": "39.3" }, { "market": "Correct score", "won": 0, "picks": 2, "implied_percent": "14.1" }, { "market": "Double chance", "won": 0, "picks": 2, "implied_percent": "59.9" }, { "market": "Result and total goals", "won": 0, "picks": 2, "implied_percent": "38.0" }, { "market": "Win to nil", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "40.0" } ] } }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 76, "checked": 25, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": { "settled_picks": 21, "void": 0, "matches": 18, "net_points_hundredths": 17950, "staked_hundredths": 210000, "return_percent": "8.55", "interval_low": "-36.95", "interval_high": "55.39", "interval_note": null, "period_from": "2024-10-19", "period_to": "2026-09-13", "method_version": "retro-1.1" }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "retro_author_price", "picks": 14, "return_main_percent": "16.79", "return_other_percent": "13.57", "settled_excluding_void": 14, "net_main_points_hundredths": 23500, "net_other_points_hundredths": 19000, "period_from": "2024-10-19", "period_to": "2026-09-13" }, { "price": "Closing price, aggregator", "series_code": "retro_market_closing", "picks": 4, "return_main_percent": "0.25", "return_other_percent": "-0.15", "settled_excluding_void": 4, "net_main_points_hundredths": 100, "net_other_points_hundredths": -60, "period_from": "2025-12-07", "period_to": "2026-08-30" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 25, "priced": 21 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 21, "won": 11, "won_percent": "52.4", "implied_percent": "47.6", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Match result", "won": 4, "picks": 9, "implied_percent": "43.2" }, { "market": "Double chance", "won": 3, "picks": 5, "implied_percent": "53.1" }, { "market": "Result and total goals", "won": 1, "picks": 2, "implied_percent": "45.8" }, { "market": "Both teams to score", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "68.0" }, { "market": "Corners over/under", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "57.8" }, { "market": "Other markets", "won": 1, "picks": 3, "implied_percent": "42.7" } ] } } ] }, "live_alongside": { "predictions": 8, "checked": 8, "settled": 2, "won": 0, "void": 0, "checked_won": 5, "checked_settled": 8, "threshold": 10, "text": "Live record so far: won 0 of 2 settled live picks at our recorded market price." }, "headline_record_ids": [ "n-0001a3c3cd5b900db054c562", "n-035af94a325f69854a16b509", "n-043483c01a7a2e058e2eeb2b", "n-2b466e6076196920fc51f247", "n-39367f796aa1e42842869f07", "n-49fc0149955c202968a5f246", "n-59fb360e2ef5726a84e2d84b", "n-77bddd250b5038de3635362e", "n-77dacff6a6debfe072c9beb3", "n-9dece5d0c7aab4f329b51a62", "n-a4eb01a751e5ec60ab836b10", "n-d1c19a3d7ddc8f4cafc0ae22", "n-e3d2cf7eed194f1c3202f6ee", "n-f71333d1899403a6fb1af40b" ], "interval_low": "-82.50", "interval_high": "30.45", "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 10 August 2024 – 3 May 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1", "record_from": "2024-08-10", "record_to": 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Verified Record, Results and Sources", "calculator": null, "person": { "person_id": "o-1a76e5115e9f0de85ee389c2", "type_code": "individual", "name_shown": "Steve Davies", "main_entity": "e-1a76e5115e9f0de85ee389c2", "identity": { "status": "not_verified", "is_verified": false, "when": null, "source_list": [] }, "platform_list": [ { "entity_ref": "e-1a76e5115e9f0de85ee389c2", "medium": "Racing Post", "channel": "section pages", "domain": "racingpost.com", "source_info": "racing-post", "byline": "Steve Davies", "url": "/sources/racing-post/", "summary": { "statements": 210, "predictions": 82, "settled_picks": 12, "headline_kind": "historical_simulation", "return_percent": -17.08, "headline_part": "archived", "period_from": "2026-09-28", "period_to": "2026-10-01" } }, { "entity_ref": "e-309df83dcb3cd70bcf88a436", "medium": "LiveScore", "channel": "section pages", "domain": "livescore.com", "source_info": "livescore", "byline": "Steve Davies", "url": null, "summary": { "statements": 66, "predictions": 9, "settled_picks": 2, "headline_kind": "historical_simulation", "return_percent": -100.0, "headline_part": "archived", "period_from": "2026-10-09", "period_to": "2026-10-18" } }, { "entity_ref": "e-4689f7fe1d94d2fcfdc6cbf3", "medium": "Racing Post", "channel": "section pages", "domain": "racingpost.com", "source_info": "racing-post", "byline": "Steve Davies", "url": null, "summary": { "statements": 1199, "predictions": 197, "settled_picks": 2, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "return_percent": -100.0, "headline_part": "live", "period_from": "2026-09-28", "period_to": "2026-11-07" } } ], "previously": [], "trust_tier": "probation" }, "data_revision": { "data_version": "2026-10-22.3", "updated": "2026-10-22", "current_release": "2026-11-07.2", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "price_rule": "reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "sample": { "settled_picks": 14, "matches": 10, "void": 0, "period_from": "2024-08-10", "period_to": "2026-05-03", "composition_hash": "44da8d7364c4b7e7c6bd20cd60b863382795dac638eb4763ec5e9de5ebbfb6b0" }, "changes_url": "#changes", "corrections_url": "/corrections/" }, "number_changes": [ { "id": "zc-282fca968c24dc1c1baa", "at": "2026-10-22T09:54:30.278Z", "data_version": "2026-10-22.3", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-22.2", "url": "/authors/steve-davies/", "category": "data_corrected", "category_words": "Data corrected", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-22.2", "return_percent": "-28.69", "settled_picks": 16, "matches": 11, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "c690df7e5b534f126f342b7f207d683745f61a2cf90a353b8e69741f042aa6b7", "text": "−28.69% on 16 settled picks across 11 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-22.3", "return_percent": "-28.93", "settled_picks": 14, "matches": 10, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "44da8d7364c4b7e7c6bd20cd60b863382795dac638eb4763ec5e9de5ebbfb6b0", "text": "−28.93% on 14 settled picks across 10 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Data corrected: 2 picks left the headline sample.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 0, "removed": 2, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-b4a92a4a0ea68d9a00a3" }, { "id": "zc-d3a867a5208aed05e1c9", "at": "2026-10-22T05:56:36.122Z", "data_version": "2026-10-22.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-22.1", "url": "/authors/steve-davies/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-19.6", "return_percent": "-28.93", "settled_picks": 14, "matches": 10, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "44da8d7364c4b7e7c6bd20cd60b863382795dac638eb4763ec5e9de5ebbfb6b0", "text": "−28.93% on 14 settled picks across 10 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-22.2", "return_percent": "-28.69", "settled_picks": 16, "matches": 11, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "c690df7e5b534f126f342b7f207d683745f61a2cf90a353b8e69741f042aa6b7", "text": "−28.69% on 16 settled picks across 11 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-f6f6baa204060f3e9488", "at": "2026-10-19T19:39:27.559Z", "data_version": "2026-10-19.6", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-19.5", "url": "/authors/steve-davies/", "category": "data_corrected", "category_words": "Data corrected", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-18.3", "return_percent": "-33.67", "settled_picks": 15, "matches": 11, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "b8f3be590308055ff51a2d290049c8743e5219ee7548a3bcb53a9cf010824916", "text": "−33.67% on 15 settled picks across 11 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-19.6", "return_percent": "-28.93", "settled_picks": 14, "matches": 10, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "44da8d7364c4b7e7c6bd20cd60b863382795dac638eb4763ec5e9de5ebbfb6b0", "text": "−28.93% on 14 settled picks across 10 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 0, "removed": 1, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-8fc548173f1d52262e01" }, { "id": "zc-19d71438d4dc4c843761", "at": "2026-10-18T04:18:28.335Z", "data_version": "2026-10-18.3", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-18.2", "url": "/authors/steve-davies/", "category": "data_corrected", "category_words": "Data corrected", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-18.2", "return_percent": "-28.69", "settled_picks": 16, "matches": 11, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "c690df7e5b534f126f342b7f207d683745f61a2cf90a353b8e69741f042aa6b7", "text": "−28.69% on 16 settled picks across 11 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-18.3", "return_percent": "-33.67", "settled_picks": 15, "matches": 11, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "b8f3be590308055ff51a2d290049c8743e5219ee7548a3bcb53a9cf010824916", "text": "−33.67% on 15 settled picks across 11 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 0, "removed": 1, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-cdddbd81606d7074a8b7" }, { "id": "zc-3cca8ba394abd8106222", "at": "2026-10-18T03:29:01.089Z", "data_version": "2026-10-18.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-18.1", "url": "/authors/steve-davies/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-16.5", "return_percent": "-33.67", "settled_picks": 15, "matches": 11, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "b8f3be590308055ff51a2d290049c8743e5219ee7548a3bcb53a9cf010824916", "text": "−33.67% on 15 settled picks across 11 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-18.2", "return_percent": "-28.69", "settled_picks": 16, "matches": 11, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "c690df7e5b534f126f342b7f207d683745f61a2cf90a353b8e69741f042aa6b7", "text": "−28.69% on 16 settled picks across 11 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-5fe02f29348302995366", "at": "2026-10-16T17:26:36.835Z", "data_version": "2026-10-16.5", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-16.4", "url": "/authors/steve-davies/", "category": "data_corrected", "category_words": "Data corrected", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-15.5", "return_percent": "-23.93", "settled_picks": 15, "matches": 11, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "1ba6ee5362fa8e7bbc7514be41d326a5b5ac6b481841b231e9589268545df789", "text": "−23.93% on 15 settled picks across 11 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-16.5", "return_percent": "-33.67", "settled_picks": 15, "matches": 11, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "b8f3be590308055ff51a2d290049c8743e5219ee7548a3bcb53a9cf010824916", "text": "−33.67% on 15 settled picks across 11 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample; 1 pick added.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 1, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-2593009e5ebe89ebb183" }, { "id": "zc-6e422b62982a660eebaf", "at": "2026-10-15T18:43:19.205Z", "data_version": "2026-10-15.5", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-15.4", "url": "/authors/steve-davies/", "category": "data_corrected", "category_words": "Data corrected", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.2", "return_percent": "-18.50", "settled_picks": 14, "matches": 9, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "c221272d95cd0d38ff7cb38f33835c8b43bdc9400ddad51946486f10a4766ac4", "text": "−18.50% on 14 settled picks across 9 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-15.5", "return_percent": "-23.93", "settled_picks": 15, "matches": 11, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "1ba6ee5362fa8e7bbc7514be41d326a5b5ac6b481841b231e9589268545df789", "text": "−23.93% on 15 settled picks across 11 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample; 2 picks added.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 1, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-6099511a2781a914d6af" }, { "id": "zc-76e4f2a4f53dc836167a", "at": "2026-10-09T12:49:36.723Z", "data_version": "2026-10-09.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "url": "/authors/steve-davies/", "category": "method_changed", "category_words": "Method changed", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "return_percent": "-36.13", "settled_picks": 19, "matches": 13, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "6a65f8bc6389656fc5ade7390b2d5a55b2070d8147a2f5cbd9f9769b91d8286c", "text": "−36.13% on 19 settled picks across 13 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.2", "return_percent": "-18.50", "settled_picks": 14, "matches": 9, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "c221272d95cd0d38ff7cb38f33835c8b43bdc9400ddad51946486f10a4766ac4", "text": "−18.50% on 14 settled picks across 9 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, a historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first found after the match no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (19 settled picks). Now: historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (14 settled picks).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 4, "removed": 9, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-f03f63537acae4a4ee11" }, { "id": "zc-7e240ddf38b26761f037", "at": "2026-10-09T11:08:54.367Z", "data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-09-30.1", "url": "/authors/steve-davies/", "category": "method_changed", "category_words": "Method changed", "before": { "data_version": "2026-09-30.1", "return_percent": "-65.83", "settled_picks": 6, "matches": 3, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_author_price", "price_rule": "author's stated odds, restored", "method_version": "retro-1.0", "composition_hash": "3c5de6cde9d69ace87df4d3216eb08872472dfb53039f26b611f3de95233cd93", "text": "−395.00 points on 6 settled picks across 3 matches · author's stated odds, restored · method retro-1.0" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "return_percent": "-36.13", "settled_picks": 19, "matches": 13, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "6a65f8bc6389656fc5ade7390b2d5a55b2070d8147a2f5cbd9f9769b91d8286c", "text": "−36.13% on 19 settled picks across 13 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "The headline number is now calculated in a different series: “second data provider's closing price, restored” (19 settled picks) instead of “author's stated odds, restored” (6 settled picks). The series is chosen by the published rule; the earlier figure is kept here.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 14, "removed": 1, "changed": 1 }, "correction_id": "i-d37b254864d673eca045" } ], "author_card": { "body": "Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 288 predictions · last change 2 November 2026", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/steve-davies/", "s": "2026-09-28", "prediction_count": 288, "refreshed_at": "2026-11-02", "html": "Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 288 predictions · last change 2 November 2026" }, "trust": { "tier": "probation", "in_words": "Probation", "settled_count": 26, "days": 813, "weeks": 12, "archive": false, "in_review": false, "own_page": true, "won_count": 11, "first_settled_on": "2024-08-10", "products_in_level": 1, "rule": { "tracked": { "min_settled": 30, "min_days": 30, "min_distinct_weeks": 2, "no_violations": true }, "established": { "min_settled": 100, "min_days": 90 } }, "show": true }, "colleagues": [ { "source_code": "racing-post", "source_name": "Racing Post", "source_url": "/sources/racing-post/", "label": "Also at Racing Post", "authors_total": 15, "authors": [ { "name": "James Milton", "url": "/authors/james-milton/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 124, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Liam Flin", "url": "/authors/liam-flin/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 58, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Jack Ogalbe", "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 44, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Ian Wilkerson", "url": "/authors/ian-wilkerson/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 37, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Dan Childs", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 24, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Joe Casey", "url": "/authors/joe-casey/", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 19, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Aaron Ashley", "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 15, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "James Mason", "url": "/authors/james-mason/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 14, "return_percent": "16.1", "small_sample": false, "average_odds": "4.00", "odds_from_author": 10, "odds_from_snapshot": 4 }, { "name": "Jamie Griffith", "url": "/authors/jamie-griffith/", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 12, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Tom Hill", "url": "/authors/tom-hill/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 11, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Tom McGarry", "url": "/authors/tom-mcgarry/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 11, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Alex Wrigley", "url": "/authors/alex-wrigley/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 7, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null } ] } ], "author_type": "Pundit", "data_changes": { "added_later": "57 records added on 28 Sep 2026 found after the match; 12 records added on 30 Sep 2026 from archived copies; 9 records added on 1 Oct 2026 found after the match; 20 more records added on other dates. 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