Sam McLoughlin: football tipster record — archive reconstruction

Where Sam McLoughlin publishes

Published under this name on news.williamhill.com.

Record card

To link to this record from your site or bio, copy the line below. It states only the facts of this record.

<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/authors/sam-mcloughlin/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 1,457 predictions · last change 4 November 2026</a>

Recorded before kick-off: supporting evidence

Score forecasts without a betting market price

Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.

1 of 3 score forecasts named the exact score.

The result implied by the named score was right in 3 of 3 matches; the market favourite was right in 2 of the same 3 matches.

The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.

The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).

Archived before kick-off · 9 settled archived picks · won 2 of 9

Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.

27 predictions; 21 checked against the final score.

9 settled selections across 9 matches, 14 January – 1 February 2025.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −559 points.

Eligible prices were available for 9 of the 21 selections checked against the result.

Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 2 of 9 decided picks; the prices of the same picks implied 38.1%.

By market: Result and both teams to score 0 of 4 (prices implied 26.7%); Match result 0 of 2 (prices implied 28.3%); Both teams to score 1 of 1 (prices implied 60.2%); Double chance 0 of 1 (prices implied 61.7%); Over/under goals 1 of 1 (prices implied 57.1%).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Score forecasts without a betting market price

Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.

1 of 12 score forecasts named the exact score (8.3%).

The result implied by the named score was right in 5 of 12 matches; the market favourite was right in 7 of the same 12 matches.

The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).

The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).

Found after kick-off · 80 settled after-match picks · −53.1%

First Found after kick-off; the date is the one the source states.

352 predictions; 164 checked against the final score.

80 settled selections across 71 matches, 15 January – 31 August 2025.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −53.1% (95.0% interval −76.5% to −27.6%).

Eligible prices were available for 80 of the 164 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 14 of 78 decided picks (17.9%); the prices of the same picks implied 33.1%.

By market: Result and both teams to score 6 of 46 (prices implied 28.1%); Match result 3 of 16 (prices implied 40.6%); Correct score 0 of 5 (prices implied 11.8%); Over/under goals 1 of 4 (prices implied 46.5%); Both teams to score 1 of 2 (prices implied 60.4%); Other markets 3 of 5 (prices implied 54.4%).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own. 2 picks left out: void, or half won or half lost on a quarter-goal line.

An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.

Score forecasts without a betting market price

Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.

6 of 82 score forecasts named the exact score (7.3%).

The result implied by the named score was right in 31 of 82 matches; the market favourite was right in 47 of the same 82 matches.

The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).

The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).

These forecasts were Found after kick-off; when they were made depends on the date the source gives.

Record details and history

Each title is a fact about past picks, by published rules. How titles work

Are you Sam McLoughlin? Show your titles on your site → · Confirm it's you

What kind of number is this?

Measured

Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; the time of each pre-match web-archive copy.

Stated

The author’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.

Calculated

Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.

Unknown

Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published; who made the predictions whose attribution is under review.

The four data statuses

What this record covers

We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything Sam McLoughlin has published.

Source we monitor

news.williamhill.com

Channels

website

Watched by us

28 September – 4 November 2026

Earlier entries

restored from archives, back to 14 January 2025

Without a match page

77 predictions

Attribution under review

998 predictions, kept out of this record’s totals

Stated price vs market

How the prices this author stated compare with an independent market price of the same selection. Calculated from the picks where both prices are known; a gap can come from market movement or from one bookmaker offering more than the market, so it describes the stated prices, not the reason for them.

Our market price when we first recorded the pick — our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off); Closing market price (restored) — the closing market price of the same selection (restored history). Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5.0% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way. The closing price is the final price before kick-off. The price when the pick was published is unknown for restored history, so this row shows the distance to where the market closed. 2 pairs left out: the prices differ more than twofold.

Pre-match close: the last market price for the same selection before kick-off. Definition.

Largest gaps: 9.00 against 8.20 (+9.8%) · 6.50 against 6.00 (+8.3%) · 1.91 against 1.35 (+41.6%) · 2.20 against 1.61 (+36.5%)

Author's response

No author's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.

Respond or request a correction

Coverage and exclusions

One set of records: the author’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.

Statements

2,884

Predictions

1,457

Qualifying picks

718

Settled picks

571

Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.

Statements that are not predictions: 274 opinions and 1,153 not about a match.

How this return was calculated

Every settled pick in “Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)” is a stake of 100 points at the last pre-match archive price, a reconstruction at archived prices on picks archived before kick-off only. The net result (−559 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 9 settled archived picks; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (900 points), void picks excluded. Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.

Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.

Separate comparison window — last 90 days: the return appears from the first settled pick in this window (method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted

Changes to this record

The headline number above is (reconstruction method 1.1, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only). When it changes, the earlier figure stays here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.

Data corrected · 19 October 2026

Before

−65.9% on 10 settled picks across 9 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (10)

After

−559.00 points on 9 settled picks across 9 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.

Method changed · 9 October 2026

Before

−18.5% on 616 settled picks across 466 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−65.9% on 10 settled picks across 9 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (10)

The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first Found after kick-off no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (616 settled picks). Now: reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (10 settled picks).

Coverage extended · 9 October 2026

Before

−17.8% on 606 settled picks across 458 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−18.5% on 616 settled picks across 466 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 10 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Who this is

Last recorded by us

4 November 2026, 3 days before this page's data date

Observed

28 September 2026 — 4 November 2026

Channels

website

Statements other than predictions (29 shown)

• “visitors, who can be backed at 6/4 for victory here with William Hill.” — 21 October 2026, 13:05 BST · source
• “the hosts can be backed here at 13/8 with William Hill.” — 21 October 2026, 13:05 BST · source
• “hoping Sunday’s emphatic victory over Hearts can inspire a much-needed European response.” — 21 October 2026, 13:05 BST · source
• “Crystal Palace arrive in Turkey following a difficult afternoon against rivals Brighton.” — 21 October 2026, 08:40 BST · source
• “Luboš Kozel’s side will be hoping home advantage can help them get their campaign up and running.” — 21 October 2026, 08:00 BST · source
• “Brighton & Hove Albion will be hoping to justify their status as strong favourites when they travel to face Jablonec” — 21 October 2026, 08:00 BST · source
• “The visitors can be backed at 9/1 with William Hill to claim a surprise victory.” — 20 October 2026, 08:00 BST · source
• “William Hill make the hosts strong 1/4 favourites to collect another three points.” — 20 October 2026, 08:00 BST · source
• “Is 7/5 on Madrid Too Big?” — 13 October 2026, 11:20 BST · source

• William Hill pricing the Jambos at 9/5 to claim three points.

  4 Nov 2026, 13:31 GMT · Source

• William Hill offer 5/4 for the hosts to claim a much-needed victory.

  4 Nov 2026, 13:31 GMT · Source

• Bet on Politics with William Hill

  26 Oct 2026, 19:23 GMT · Source

• Rapper now 16/1 to land White House role after Trump interaction.

  26 Oct 2026, 19:23 GMT · Source

• Nicki Minaj Enters Next White House Press Secretary Betting

  26 Oct 2026, 19:23 GMT · Source

• All odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing

  21 Oct 2026, 08:40 BST · Source

• William Hill price the visitors at 6/1 to claim a surprise victory.

  21 Oct 2026, 08:00 BST · Source

• William Hill make the Turkish side strong 4/11 favourites to continue their impressive run.

  21 Oct 2026, 08:00 BST · Source

• punters can back Kauno Žalgiris at 50/1 with William Hill to pull off one of the shocks of the campaign.

  14 Oct 2026, 10:05 BST · Source

• Create your Bet Builder now Stack your selections into an accumulator Take Part in Final One Standing with William Hill

  14 Oct 2026, 08:00 BST · Source

• Liverpool are the 2/7 odds‑on favourites with William Hill to get back on track.

  13 Oct 2026, 10:24 BST · Source

• Punters can back LASK to spring a major surprise at 15/2 with William Hill.

  13 Oct 2026, 10:24 BST · Source

• The visitors are 12/5 with William Hill to take an unexpected three points.

  12 Oct 2026, 11:46 BST · Source

• They’re 21/10 with William Hill to claim the points while seeing both teams find the net.

  12 Oct 2026, 11:46 BST · Source

• the Spaniard is now joint-second favourite to be the next manager to go alongside De Zerbi in what remains a volatile market.”

  11 Oct 2026, 10:09 BST · Source

• Fulham’s slump to a late defeat at Ipswich has seen Alvaro Arbeloa shorten into 11/4 from 9/2

  11 Oct 2026, 10:09 BST · Source

• they have now traded places with De Zerbi drifting out to 11/4 after Spurs grabbed an injury-time draw at Old Trafford.

  11 Oct 2026, 10:09 BST · Source

• Carrick was 5/2 before Saturday’s clash, with Spurs boss Roberto De Zerbi narrowly ahead of him in the sack race market at 9/4

  11 Oct 2026, 10:09 BST · Source

• we now make the former United and Spurs midfielder favourite to be the next Premier League manager to go at 2/1.

  11 Oct 2026, 10:09 BST · Source

• Manchester United’s failure to clinch victory against 10-man Spurs has seen the heat turned up further on manager Michael Carrick

  11 Oct 2026, 10:09 BST · Source

The full list is in the JSON and CSV downloads of this page.

The same data, machine-readable

• Page data (JSON)
• Recorded picks (CSV)

From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.

Share cards of this record (4)

• Bankroll card — Sam McLoughlin
• A month following Sam McLoughlin
• Said → happened — Sam McLoughlin
• Turning point — Sam McLoughlin

For the author of this record (1)

• Your titles on Forecast Record: Sam McLoughlin

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Calculations for the displayed picks

Record definitions and related evidence

• Titles and record details
• Recorded picks and results
• Matches
• How this return was calculated
• Archived before kick-off — definition
• Record details and history below
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