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 "heading": "Sam McLoughlin: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "9 settled picks by Sam McLoughlin archived before kick-off across 9 matches, 14 Jan 2025 – 1 Feb 2025: won 2 of 9, reconstructed at archived prices.",
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  "body": "Forecast Record restored 9 settled archived picks by Sam McLoughlin from copies archived before kick-off, across 9 matches between 14 January and 1 February 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 2 of 9 settled archived picks. Recorded by us before kick-off: 3 predictions, 3 with a checked outcome, 1 won. Of the 1,457 predictions we hold for Sam McLoughlin, 382 are linked to matches: 3 were recorded by us before kick-off, 27 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 352 first found after the match; 998 are excluded while the attribution is under review. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
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    "profit_hundredths": -18848,
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  ],
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    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
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    "url": "/football/matches/fc-thun-vs-hearts-2026-11-05/",
    "scoreline": "3-1",
    "condition": "finished"
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   "outcome_label": "FC Thun 1-2 Hearts",
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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   "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
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  "restored_total": 552,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 28,
  "found_post_match": 524,
  "of_them_source_reported": 0,
  "live_count": 19,
  "date_count": 168,
  "span_from": "2025-01-14",
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  "line_text": "restored history: 552, of which pre-match archive 28",
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   "share": "0.255"
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    "ci_high": "5.8328",
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    "roi": "-23.1544",
    "ci_low": "-37.0122",
    "ci_high": "-8.0397",
    "data_status": "calculated",
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   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_derived_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored score forecast: result implied by the score, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
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    "roi": "-9.4143",
    "ci_low": "-18.6442",
    "ci_high": "0.4133",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Premier League"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 929 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 42 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged.",
  "score_accuracy": {
   "n": 496,
   "share": "0.1069"
  }
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)",
    "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick",
    "compared": 17,
    "above": 3,
    "above_share_percent": "17.6",
    "below": 1,
    "within": 13,
    "median_difference_percent": "0.0",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated"
   },
   {
    "basis": "closing",
    "basis_words": "the closing market price of the same selection (restored history)",
    "basis_short": "Closing market price (restored)",
    "compared": 80,
    "above": 17,
    "above_share_percent": "21.2",
    "below": 27,
    "within": 36,
    "median_difference_percent": "-2.0",
    "not_comparable": 2,
    "disputed": 2,
    "status": "calculated",
    "sentence": "The author's stated price against the closing price of the same selection: median −2.0% over 80 picks. The price available to followers is the market price, shown separately."
   }
  ],
  "examples": [
   {
    "url": "/authors/sam-mcloughlin/picks/74/#pick-n-340d801b01a0b63cdfb23f13",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "9.00",
    "market": "8.20",
    "difference_percent": "9.8"
   },
   {
    "url": "/authors/sam-mcloughlin/picks/74/#pick-n-5dc9146fed70bf4d77faf222",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "6.50",
    "market": "6.00",
    "difference_percent": "8.3"
   },
   {
    "url": "/authors/sam-mcloughlin/picks/5/#pick-n-1291951a5c5ace4642a29641",
    "basis": "closing",
    "stated": "1.91",
    "market": "1.35",
    "difference_percent": "41.6"
   },
   {
    "url": "/authors/sam-mcloughlin/picks/9/#pick-n-00f198eae045d81af928228f",
    "basis": "closing",
    "stated": "2.20",
    "market": "1.61",
    "difference_percent": "36.5"
   }
  ],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "news.williamhill.com",
   "url": "https://news.williamhill.com/football/thun-vs-hearts-prediction-conference-league-tips-2026-27/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-09-28",
  "observed_to": "2026-11-04",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
  "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
  "restored": true,
  "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
  "headline_part": "archived",
  "settled_picks": 9,
  "matches": 9,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -55900,
  "staked_hundredths": 90000,
  "return_percent": "-62.11",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2025-01-14",
  "period_to": "2025-02-01",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 9 settled archived picks by Sam McLoughlin from copies archived before kick-off, across 9 matches between 14 January and 1 February 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 2 of 9 settled archived picks. Recorded by us before kick-off: 3 predictions, 3 with a checked outcome, 1 won. Of the 1,457 predictions we hold for Sam McLoughlin, 382 are linked to matches: 3 were recorded by us before kick-off, 27 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 352 first found after the match; 998 are excluded while the attribution is under review. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled archived picks",
    "value": "9",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "9",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−559 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "value": "−62.1%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": null
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "Most of this history was found after the matches. Of the 89 selections in this historical price series, 9 have a pre-match archive copy and 80 were first found after the match.",
   "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included.",
   "998 predictions are kept out of this record’s totals: the article byline and the named tipster differ."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": null,
   "archived": {
    "part": "archived",
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
    "settled_picks": 9,
    "matches": 9,
    "match_dates": 3,
    "period_from": "2025-01-14",
    "period_to": "2025-02-01",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -55900,
    "low": {
     "date": "2025-02-01",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -55900,
     "after_picks": 9
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2025-01-14",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
     "after_picks": 1
    },
    "line_drawn": false,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2025-01-14",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-01-25",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -40000,
      "n": 4,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-02-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -55900,
      "n": 9,
      "picks": 5
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record restored 9 settled archived picks by Sam McLoughlin from copies archived before kick-off, across 9 matches between 14 January and 1 February 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 2 of 9 settled archived picks. Recorded by us before kick-off: 3 predictions, 3 with a checked outcome, 1 won. Of the 1,457 predictions we hold for Sam McLoughlin, 382 are linked to matches: 3 were recorded by us before kick-off, 27 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 352 first found after the match; 998 are excluded while the attribution is under review. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/sam-mcloughlin/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "retro-1.1"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 459,
   "under_review": 998,
   "no_match_linked": 77,
   "proven_predictions": 30,
   "proven_checked": 24,
   "proven_measured": 24,
   "proven_dates": 4,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 3,
     "checked": 3,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 3,
      "exact_hits": 1,
      "exact_rate": 33.3,
      "outcome_checked": 3,
      "outcome_hits": 3,
      "outcome_rate": 100.0,
      "baseline_matches": 3,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 3,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 3,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 100.0,
      "favourite_hits": 2,
      "favourite_rate": 66.7,
      "price_basis": "our pre-match snapshot",
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": [
       "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.",
       "1 of 3 score forecasts named the exact score.",
       "The result implied by the named score was right in 3 of 3 matches; the market favourite was right in 2 of the same 3 matches.",
       "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.",
       "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)."
      ]
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 3,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 27,
     "checked": 21,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 9,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 9,
      "net_points_hundredths": -55900,
      "staked_hundredths": 90000,
      "return_percent": "-62.11",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2025-01-14",
      "period_to": "2025-02-01",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Closing price, aggregator",
       "series_code": "retro_market_closing",
       "picks": 2,
       "return_main_percent": "-12.50",
       "return_other_percent": "-12.40",
       "settled_excluding_void": 2,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -2500,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -2481,
       "period_from": "2025-02-01",
       "period_to": "2025-02-01"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 12,
      "exact_hits": 1,
      "exact_rate": 8.3,
      "outcome_checked": 12,
      "outcome_hits": 5,
      "outcome_rate": 41.7,
      "baseline_matches": 12,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 12,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 5,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 41.7,
      "favourite_hits": 7,
      "favourite_rate": 58.3,
      "price_basis": "last pre-match archive price",
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": [
       "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.",
       "1 of 12 score forecasts named the exact score (8.3%).",
       "The result implied by the named score was right in 5 of 12 matches; the market favourite was right in 7 of the same 12 matches.",
       "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).",
       "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)."
      ]
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 21,
      "priced": 9
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 9,
      "won": 2,
      "won_percent": "22.2",
      "implied_percent": "38.1",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Result and both teams to score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 4,
        "implied_percent": "26.7"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "28.3"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "60.2"
       },
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "61.7"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "57.1"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 352,
     "checked": 164,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 80,
      "void": 2,
      "matches": 71,
      "net_points_hundredths": -414300,
      "staked_hundredths": 780000,
      "return_percent": "-53.12",
      "interval_low": "-76.55",
      "interval_high": "-27.63",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2025-01-15",
      "period_to": "2025-08-31",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 1,
       "return_main_percent": "-100.00",
       "return_other_percent": "-100.00",
       "settled_excluding_void": 1,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -10000,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -10000,
       "period_from": "2025-05-03",
       "period_to": "2025-05-03"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price, aggregator",
       "series_code": "retro_market_closing",
       "picks": 18,
       "return_main_percent": "-27.67",
       "return_other_percent": "-28.23",
       "settled_excluding_void": 18,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -49800,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -50814,
       "period_from": "2025-02-02",
       "period_to": "2025-08-31"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 82,
      "exact_hits": 6,
      "exact_rate": 7.3,
      "outcome_checked": 82,
      "outcome_hits": 31,
      "outcome_rate": 37.8,
      "baseline_matches": 82,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 82,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 31,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 37.8,
      "favourite_hits": 47,
      "favourite_rate": 57.3,
      "price_basis": "last pre-match archive price",
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": [
       "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.",
       "6 of 82 score forecasts named the exact score (7.3%).",
       "The result implied by the named score was right in 31 of 82 matches; the market favourite was right in 47 of the same 82 matches.",
       "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).",
       "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).",
       "These forecasts were found after the match; when they were made depends on the date the source gives."
      ]
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 164,
      "priced": 80
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 78,
      "won": 14,
      "won_percent": "17.9",
      "implied_percent": "33.1",
      "left_out": 2,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Result and both teams to score",
        "won": 6,
        "picks": 46,
        "implied_percent": "28.1"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 3,
        "picks": 16,
        "implied_percent": "40.6"
       },
       {
        "market": "Correct score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 5,
        "implied_percent": "11.8"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 4,
        "implied_percent": "46.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "60.4"
       },
       {
        "market": "Other markets",
        "won": 3,
        "picks": 5,
        "implied_percent": "54.4"
       }
      ]
     }
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": {
   "predictions": 3,
   "checked": 3,
   "settled": 0,
   "won": 0,
   "void": 0,
   "checked_won": 1,
   "checked_settled": 3,
   "threshold": 10,
   "text": "Recorded by us before kick-off: 3 predictions, 3 with a checked outcome, 1 won."
  },
  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-15a0ac57c472f5717e610751",
   "n-346d83331ac7bce84a54eadc",
   "n-3cd65c20f21937b8276e77b8",
   "n-6d202d65dff0cb60568d0e57",
   "n-7a8c471f200efc9e2e77ba13",
   "n-7b02bbff4b60f87bfa91ddcf",
   "n-8ae214125aee84194c1e43e5",
   "n-8c46a4e74d643a6481817baf",
   "n-9d9398ec90689120b754389a"
  ],
  "interval_low": null,
  "interval_high": null,
  "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 14 January – 1 February 2025 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1",
  "record_from": "2025-01-14",
  "record_to": "2026-11-04"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-7fe352367625816eba93355d",
   "url": "/authors/sam-mcloughlin/picks/42/#pick-n-7fe352367625816eba93355d",
   "match": "Aston Villa v Crystal Palace",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-08-31T18:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -9430.2,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: Aston Villa",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "0-3",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": "2.0850",
   "published_at": "2025-08-29T09:00:16.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:13:39.850Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-7fe352367625816eba93355d",
    "quote_text": "i think we’ll see Aston Villa edge this one.",
    "fragment_from": 6547,
    "fragment_to": 6591,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "rss",
     "url": "https://news.williamhill.com/football/premier-league-betting-tips-for-sunday-31st-august-2025/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Sam McLoughlin",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "cdcb0bddbbdac51770e5c83b6aef2ac67e791c1a41fd14cc8ce748230c87ed27",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": "2025-08-29T09:00:16.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:13:39.850Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:21:43.632Z",
    "statement_class": "unpriced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
     "event_id": null,
     "display_name": "Aston Villa v Crystal Palace",
     "competition_name": "Premier League",
     "starts_at": "2025-08-31T18:00:00.000Z",
     "url": null,
     "scoreline": "0-3"
    },
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "outcome_label": "Aston Villa",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": null,
     "our_snapshot": null,
     "our_snapshot_at": null,
     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": "2.0600",
     "closing_source": "aggregator closing price"
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "loss",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "found_post_match",
    "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": "2025-08-29T09:00:16.000Z",
     "fragment_basis": "element",
     "source_page_at": "2025-08-29T09:00:16.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:13:39.850Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
    "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
    "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Aston Villa",
     "author_odds": null,
     "market_key": "1x2",
     "choice_key": "1",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "1X2, match result: Aston Villa"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "loss",
     "scoreline": "0-3",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Aston Villa 0-3 Crystal Palace."
    },
    "settlements": [
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   "match": "Wolverhampton Wanderers v Brighton & Hove Albion",
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   "group": "settled",
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   "market_code": "both_teams_score_and_result",
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   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
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   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
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   "settled_price": "4.4150",
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   "settled_price": "2.4750",
   "published_at": "2025-01-16T13:58:06.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:04:41.020Z",
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   "match": "Manchester United v Brighton & Hove Albion",
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   "kickoff": "2025-01-19T14:00:00.000Z",
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   "market_code": "both_teams_score_and_result",
   "author_said": "Match result and both teams to score: Manchester United win, both teams to score: yes",
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   "group": "settled",
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   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
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   "settled_price": "4.2650",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:04:10.066Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "match": "Everton v Tottenham Hotspur",
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   "kickoff": "2025-01-19T14:00:00.000Z",
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   "group": "settled",
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   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
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   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": "3.3100",
   "published_at": "2025-01-17T09:15:38.000Z",
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   "match": "West Ham United v Crystal Palace",
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   "kickoff": "2025-01-18T15:00:00.000Z",
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   "market_code": "both_teams_score_and_result",
   "author_said": "Match result and both teams to score: draw, both teams to score: yes",
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   "published_at": "2025-01-16T13:01:13.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:05:00.728Z",
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   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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   "kickoff": "2025-01-18T15:00:00.000Z",
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   "market_code": "both_teams_score_and_result",
   "author_said": "Match result and both teams to score: Fulham win, both teams to score: yes",
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   "group": "settled",
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   "settled_price": "3.5500",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:05:00.728Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "market_code": "both_teams_score_and_result",
   "author_said": "Match result and both teams to score: Liverpool win, both teams to score: yes",
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   "group": "settled",
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   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
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   "settled_price": "2.3800",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:05:00.728Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "kickoff": "2025-01-16T20:00:00.000Z",
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   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
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   "claim_outcome": "Void",
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   "settled_price": "3.0100",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:06:16.108Z",
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   "match": "Ipswich Town v Brighton & Hove Albion",
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   "kickoff": "2025-01-16T19:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -14923.6,
   "market_code": "both_teams_score_and_result",
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   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
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   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
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   "settled_price": "3.6500",
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   "match": "Everton v Aston Villa",
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   "kickoff": "2025-01-15T19:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
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   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: draw",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
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   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
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   "settled_price": "3.1100",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:06:45.988Z",
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    "choice_words": "a draw"
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  },
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  },
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   "match": "Liverpool v Newcastle United",
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  },
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  },
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  {
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   "evidence": {
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     "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Sunderland 2-1 Crystal Palace."
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    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
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    },
    "market_label": "Draw no bet",
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    "author_claim": {
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     "choice": "Everton",
     "author_odds": null,
     "market_key": "draw_no_bet",
     "choice_key": "1",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "Draw no bet: Everton"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
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    ],
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  },
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   "match": "Everton v Brentford",
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  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-28be40f41f8c52d93ea09924",
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   "match": "Leeds United v Manchester United",
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   "competition": "Premier League",
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  {
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   "match": "Leeds United v Manchester United",
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   "competition": "Premier League",
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   "author_said": "Correct score: Leeds United 2-2 Manchester United",
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  {
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   "match": "AFC Bournemouth v Arsenal",
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   "kickoff": "2026-01-03T17:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
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   "author_said": "Correct score: AFC Bournemouth 1-2 Arsenal",
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  {
   "record_id": "n-4c3bb53a905a21bfc43fd6b4",
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    },
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
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     "closing": "1.5064",
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   "url": null,
   "match": "Wolverhampton Wanderers v West Ham United",
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   "kickoff": "2026-01-03T15:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
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   "author_said": "Correct score: Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-2 West Ham United",
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   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
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   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-1212ccd60b1751ea4c17bd5d",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Wolverhampton Wanderers v West Ham United",
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   "kickoff": "2026-01-03T15:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -6433.2,
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   "author_said": "Match result and both teams to score: draw, both teams to score: yes",
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  },
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   "match": "Brighton & Hove Albion v Burnley",
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   "kickoff": "2026-01-03T15:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
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   "author_said": "Correct score: Brighton & Hove Albion 1-1 Burnley",
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   "record_id": "n-704a700557972e75031ac28e",
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   "kickoff": "2026-01-03T15:00:00.000Z",
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  {
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  },
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  {
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  },
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  },
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   "published_at": "2025-08-21T11:00:22.000Z",
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  },
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   "published_at": "2025-08-17T11:00:12.000Z",
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   "record_id": "n-4514dfcd4bf739d2ff61f174",
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     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
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     "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
     "verdict_by": null,
     "verdict_line": null
    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "Bukayo Saka to assist"
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  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-80a2d459582e8812f9e9d160",
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   "match": "Newcastle United v Everton",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-05-25T15:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -11785.2,
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   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "0-1",
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   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-05-24T07:00:40.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:14:54.245Z",
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   "record_part": "found_after",
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   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
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   "url": null,
   "match": "Fulham v Manchester City",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-05-25T15:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -11785.2,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
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   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
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   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "0-2",
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   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-05-24T07:00:25.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:14:54.175Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
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   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
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   "url": null,
   "match": "Nottingham Forest v Chelsea",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-05-25T15:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -11785.2,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Chelsea",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "0-1",
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-05-24T07:00:50.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:14:51.074Z",
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   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-2f243aecf9550a0fe10ea06a",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Manchester United v Aston Villa",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-05-25T15:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -11785.2,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Manchester United 1-2 Aston Villa",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "2-0",
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-05-24T07:00:53.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:14:50.997Z",
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   "attribution": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
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   "url": null,
   "match": "Wolverhampton Wanderers v Brentford",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-05-25T15:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -11785.2,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Wolverhampton Wanderers 1-1 Brentford",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "1-1",
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-05-24T07:01:26.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:14:48.649Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-f490ada6033cd15e2f73d86c",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Tottenham Hotspur v Brighton & Hove Albion",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-05-25T15:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -11785.2,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Tottenham Hotspur 2-2 Brighton & Hove Albion",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "1-4",
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-05-24T07:01:26.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:14:48.649Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-4e2ba955528d79098bbfe22d",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Southampton v Arsenal",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-05-25T15:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -11785.2,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Southampton 0-3 Arsenal",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "1-2",
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-05-24T07:01:26.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:14:48.649Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-68d96ef564b8c97a32514543",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Liverpool v Crystal Palace",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-05-25T15:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -11785.2,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Liverpool 2-0 Crystal Palace",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "1-1",
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-05-24T07:01:26.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:14:48.649Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-1317089d5a92b6b8d709d07f",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Ipswich Town v West Ham United",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-05-25T15:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -11785.2,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Ipswich Town 1-1 West Ham United",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "1-3",
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-05-24T07:01:26.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:14:48.649Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-4605fd5ce6a9f0e813c92960",
   "url": null,
   "match": "AFC Bournemouth v Leicester City",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-05-25T15:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -11785.2,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: AFC Bournemouth 3-1 Leicester City",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "2-0",
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-05-24T07:01:26.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:14:48.649Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-0abb521d9cc7486b43232cb9",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Manchester City v AFC Bournemouth",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-05-20T19:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -11901.3,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Manchester City 3-1 AFC Bournemouth",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "3-1",
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-05-19T16:30:58.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:15:09.565Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-b8bd76b4d555e4605b1290fb",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Crystal Palace v Wolverhampton Wanderers",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-05-20T19:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -11901.3,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Crystal Palace 2-1 Wolverhampton Wanderers",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "4-2",
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
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   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-05-19T16:30:58.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:15:09.565Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-5900ab9447a5d922dc14e710",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Brighton & Hove Albion v Liverpool",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-05-19T19:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -11925.3,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Brighton & Hove Albion 2-2 Liverpool",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
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   "points_hundredths": null,
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   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-05-18T15:00:43.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:15:13.121Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
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  {
   "record_id": "n-73be7217d03cfa7b2eba9b23",
   "url": "/authors/sam-mcloughlin/picks/48/#pick-n-73be7217d03cfa7b2eba9b23",
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   "kickoff": "2025-05-18T15:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
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   "market_code": "player_assist",
   "author_said": "Player to assist: Martin Odegaard to assist at 6",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
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   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
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   "published_at": "2025-05-16T11:32:19.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:15:24.083Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
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   "attribution": null,
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   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
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    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
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    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
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    },
    "market_label": "Player to assist",
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    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "unknown",
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    "provenance": "found_post_match",
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    "origin": "source_stated_date",
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    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Player to assist",
     "choice": "Martin Odegaard to assist",
     "author_odds": "6",
     "market_key": "player_assist",
     "choice_key": "yes",
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     "in_words": "Player to assist: Martin Odegaard to assist at 6"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "unknown",
     "scoreline": null,
     "data_status": "unknown",
     "cause": "awaiting a final score for this restored pick",
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "Pending: awaiting a final score for this restored pick."
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    "settlements": [
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      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
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      "market_label": "Player to assist",
      "choice": "Martin Odegaard to assist",
      "decimal_odds": "6",
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      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "skipped",
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      "result": "unknown",
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      "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
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  },
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   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-05-16T18:30:00.000Z",
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   "lead_hours": -11997.8,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
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   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
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  },
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  },
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  },
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  },
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   "claim_outcome": "Won",
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   "reason": "the article byline and the named tipster differ; this selection is kept out of individual totals",
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   "published_at": "2025-05-04T15:00:31.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:15:54.423Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "attribution": "Attribution under review",
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  },
  {
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  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-47f6060b7770107f2e23df21",
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  },
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  },
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  },
  {
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  },
  {
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  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-4dae3078e038d92a0b2e2c1d",
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   "match": "Fulham v Crystal Palace",
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   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
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  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-a2c5b00ff82ebe02bca166fd",
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   "kickoff": "2025-02-22T15:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -13993.3,
   "market_code": "both_teams_score_and_result",
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   "quote": null,
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   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
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   "reason": "the article byline and the named tipster differ; this selection is kept out of individual totals",
   "reason_code": "attribution",
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  },
  {
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   "match": "AFC Bournemouth v Wolverhampton Wanderers",
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   "market_code": "both_teams_score_and_result",
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   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "0-1",
   "reason": "the article byline and the named tipster differ; this selection is kept out of individual totals",
   "reason_code": "attribution",
   "points_hundredths": null,
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  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-83d7c49634a1f6b4aeff7773",
   "url": null,
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   "kickoff": "2025-02-22T15:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
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  },
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   "match": "Arsenal v West Ham United",
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  },
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  },
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     "rule_version": "1.1"
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   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Brighton & Hove Albion 1-1 Everton",
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   "author_said": "Correct score: Chelsea 3-1 Wolverhampton Wanderers",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:04:41.020Z",
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   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Ipswich Town 1-2 Manchester City",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:04:10.066Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Nottingham Forest 2-0 Southampton",
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   "kickoff": "2025-01-19T14:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
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   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Manchester United 2-1 Brighton & Hove Albion",
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   "group": "excluded",
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   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
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   "quote": "Mo Salah to score two or more.",
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   "outcome": "Excluded",
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   "reason_code": "after_match",
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   "quote": "Alexander Isak to score first.",
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 "number_changes": [
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    "text": "−65.90% on 10 settled picks across 9 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
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    "text": "−559.00 points on 9 settled picks across 9 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.",
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    "text": "−18.47% on 616 settled picks across 466 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-09.2",
    "return_percent": "-65.90",
    "settled_picks": 10,
    "matches": 9,
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "8f0d963ac04925e417db5bc401850bdb9feed630b20e89f8e1dd04a2f5b62b6f",
    "text": "−65.90% on 10 settled picks across 9 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, a historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first found after the match no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (616 settled picks). Now: historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (10 settled picks).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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  {
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   "at": "2026-10-09T11:08:54.367Z",
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   "url": "/authors/sam-mcloughlin/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
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    "void": 3,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "475efa85e77c8b1a615ff42fe156b44615006e40a7c3bee43be7bc355a5f33a5",
    "text": "−17.76% on 606 settled picks across 458 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "-18.47",
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    "void": 3,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored",
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    "composition_hash": "b03fb0feeb4cf3687d0e239caf97e4f5b83afb55d5ed290a915617cf8e1634a6",
    "text": "−18.47% on 616 settled picks across 466 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Added 10 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 0,
    "changed": 0
   },
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  }
 ],
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    "total_check": true,
    "market_list": [
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      "net_points_hundredths": -40000,
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     },
     {
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      "void": 0,
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      "net_points_hundredths": -10000,
      "return_percent": "-100.0",
      "period_from": "2025-01-25",
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    ],
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      "url": "/football/competitions/premier-league/",
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      "period_from": "2025-01-14",
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      "league_markets": [
       {
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        "return_percent": null,
        "period_from": "2025-01-14",
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       },
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        "period_from": "2025-01-25",
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       },
       {
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        "period_from": "2025-02-01",
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       },
       {
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        "void": 0,
        "net_points_hundredths": -10000,
        "return_percent": null,
        "period_from": "2025-01-25",
        "period_to": "2025-01-25",
        "small_sample": true,
        "average_odds": "1.62",
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       },
       {
        "code_name": "total",
        "in_words": "Over/under goals",
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        "return_percent": null,
        "period_from": "2025-02-01",
        "period_to": "2025-02-01",
        "small_sample": true,
        "average_odds": "1.75",
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      ]
     }
    ],
    "best_slice": null
   }
  ],
  "best_slice": null
 },
 "author_card": {
  "body": "Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 1,457 predictions · last change 4 November 2026",
  "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/sam-mcloughlin/",
  "s": "2026-09-28",
  "prediction_count": 1457,
  "refreshed_at": "2026-11-04",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://forecastrecord.com/authors/sam-mcloughlin/\">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 1,457 predictions · last change 4 November 2026</a>"
 },
 "trust": {
  "tier": "probation",
  "in_words": "Probation",
  "settled_count": 24,
  "days": 628,
  "weeks": 4,
  "archive": false,
  "in_review": false,
  "own_page": true,
  "won_count": 4,
  "first_settled_on": "2025-01-14",
  "products_in_level": 1,
  "rule": {
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    "min_days": 30,
    "min_distinct_weeks": 2,
    "no_violations": true
   },
   "established": {
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    "min_days": 90
   }
  },
  "show": true
 },
 "colleagues": null,
 "author_type": "Tipster",
 "data_changes": {
  "added_later": "301 records added on 28 Sep 2026 found after the match; 22 records added on 30 Sep 2026 from archived copies; 51 records added on 30 Sep 2026 found after the match. The current numbers include them; numbers published earlier, including the record before each match, do not change.",
  "records_corrected": 6,
  "last_correction_at": "2026-10-19T19:39:27.559Z",
  "corrections_url": "/corrections/",
  "text": "6 records shown here have been corrected; the last correction was on 19 October 2026, with its reason in the corrections log."
 },
 "entity_id": "person:o-8e187e16c4b6ff71a018973b",
 "source_revision": 161,
 "related": [
  {
   "url": "/cards/e-8e187e16c4b6ff71a018973b-bank/",
   "name": "Bankroll card — Sam McLoughlin",
   "detail": null,
   "source_group": "cards"
  },
  {
   "url": "/cards/e-8e187e16c4b6ff71a018973b-month-following/",
   "name": "A month following Sam McLoughlin",
   "detail": null,
   "source_group": "cards"
  },
  {
   "url": "/cards/e-8e187e16c4b6ff71a018973b-said-vs-happened/",
   "name": "Said → happened — Sam McLoughlin",
   "detail": null,
   "source_group": "cards"
  },
  {
   "url": "/cards/e-8e187e16c4b6ff71a018973b-turning-point/",
   "name": "Turning point — Sam McLoughlin",
   "detail": null,
   "source_group": "cards"
  },
  {
   "url": "/for-authors/sam-mcloughlin/",
   "name": "Your titles on Forecast Record: Sam McLoughlin",
   "detail": null,
   "source_group": "for_authors"
  }
 ],
 "number_sets": [
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   "set": "profile.settled",
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   "value": 571,
   "where": "coverage",
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   "value": 1457,
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   "entity": "e-8e187e16c4b6ff71a018973b",
   "value": 1457,
   "where": "picks",
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
  },
  {
   "set": "profile.part.live",
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   "value": 0,
   "where": null,
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
  },
  {
   "set": "profile.part.archived",
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   "value": 80,
   "where": null,
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
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  {
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   "value": 21,
   "where": "origin-archived",
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  },
  {
   "set": "profile.checked",
   "entity": "e-8e187e16c4b6ff71a018973b",
   "value": 24,
   "where": "trust-level",
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
   "label": true
  }
 ]
}