Sam Farley: football tipster record — archive reconstruction
Forecast Record restored 3 settled archived picks by Sam Farley from copies archived before kick-off, across 2 matches between 5 March and . Reconstructed at archived prices: won 1 of 3 settled archived picks.
How tracking levels work
Tracked requires 30 predictions checked against the final score over 30 days in at least 2 weeks. Established requires 100 predictions checked against the final score with at least 90 days of history. Tracking-level rules
Record summary
1 won / 2 lost; average odds 2.25
Small sample (3) · 3 settled picks · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1
Eligible prices were available for 3 of the 3 selections checked against the result.
Copy citation
Forecast Record restored 3 settled archived picks by Sam Farley from copies archived before kick-off, across 2 matches between 5 March and 16 April 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 1 of 3 settled archived picks. Of the 27 predictions we hold for Sam Farley, 14 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 13 first found after kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.
Forecast Record restored 3 settled archived picks by Sam Farley from copies archived before kick-off, across 2 matches between 5 March and 16 April 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 1 of 3 settled archived picks. Of the 27 predictions we hold for Sam Farley, 14 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 13 first found after the match. Figures as of .
https://forecastrecord.com/authors/sam-farley/
59 statements read → 27 predictions → 27 linked to matches → 0 recorded before kick-off → 0 outcome-checked → 0 at our recorded market price (+1 at other prices) · 13 found after kick-off (not in the return)
14 archived before kick-off → 3 outcome-checked → 3 at archived prices. Archive and live records are separate.
Latest outcomes
By market and competition
Markets
| Market | Won | Return | Avg odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | 1 W / 0 L | — Small sample (1) | 1.66 |
| Over/under goals | 0 W / 1 L | — Small sample (1) | 2.21 |
| Result and both teams to score | 0 W / 1 L | — Small sample (1) | 2.88 |
Competitions
| Competition | Won | Return | Avg odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1 W / 1 L | — Small sample (2) | 1.94 |
| UEFA Champions League | 0 W / 1 L | — Small sample (1) | 2.88 |
Recorded picks and results
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0-4 Manchester City ·
Match result and both teams to score: Manchester City win, both teams to score: yeswithout a stated priceFound after kick-off (published , recorded )Lost
Next Best – Man City to win & both teams to scoreweb.archive.org
- Tipster / Source
- Sam Farley
- Prices
- Stated —, market —, closing 3.23
- Published
- Recorded
- Kick-off
- Rule
- vretro-1.1
Newcastle United 5-0 Crystal Palace ·
Over/Under 2.5 goals: under 2.5without a stated priceFound after kick-off (published , recorded )Lost
Under 2.5 goalsweb.archive.org
- Tipster / Source
- Sam Farley
- Prices
- Stated —, market —, closing 2.20
- Published
- Recorded
- Kick-off
- Rule
- vretro-1.0
Newcastle United 5-0 Crystal Palace ·
1X2: Newcastle Unitedwithout a stated priceFound after kick-off (published , recorded )Won
Newcastle to winweb.archive.org
- Tipster / Source
- Sam Farley
- Prices
- Stated —, market —, closing 1.65
- Published
- Recorded
- Kick-off
- Rule
- vretro-1.0
Match result and both teams to score: FC Barcelona win, both teams to score: yeswithout a stated priceFound after kick-off (published , recorded )Lost
Barcelona to win and Both teams to scoreweb.archive.org
- Tipster / Source
- Sam Farley
- Prices
- Stated —, market —, closing 2.88
- Published
- Recorded
- Kick-off
- Rule
- vretro-1.1
Statement: Statementwithout a stated priceFound after kick-off (published , recorded )Excluded from the return
Both teams to Score: Yesweb.archive.org- Tipster / Source
- Sam Farley
- Prices
- Stated —, market —, closing —
- Published
- Recorded
- Kick-off
- Not stated
- Rule
- v2.2
- Why excluded
- This prediction format is not supported.
Statement: Statementwithout a stated priceFound after kick-off (published , recorded )Excluded from the return
Value Pick – Tijjani Reijnders to scoreweb.archive.org- Tipster / Source
- Sam Farley
- Prices
- Stated —, market —, closing —
- Published
- Recorded
- Kick-off
- Not stated
- Rule
- v2.2
Statement: Statementwithout a stated priceFound after kick-off (published , recorded )Excluded from the return
NAP – Andre to commit 2+ foulsweb.archive.org- Tipster / Source
- Sam Farley
- Prices
- Stated —, market —, closing —
- Published
- Recorded
- Kick-off
- Not stated
- Rule
- v2.2
- Why excluded
- This prediction format is not supported.
Statement: Statementwithout a stated priceFound after kick-off (published , recorded )Excluded from the return
Man City to winweb.archive.org- Tipster / Source
- Sam Farley
- Prices
- Stated —, market —, closing —
- Published
- Recorded
- Kick-off
- Not stated
- Rule
- v2.2
- Why excluded
- This prediction format is not supported.
Statement: Statementwithout a stated priceFound after kick-off (published , recorded )Excluded from the return
Wolves win or draw (Double Chance)web.archive.org- Tipster / Source
- Sam Farley
- Prices
- Stated —, market —, closing —
- Published
- Recorded
- Kick-off
- Not stated
- Rule
- v2.2
- Why excluded
- This prediction format is not supported.
Statement: Statementwithout a stated priceFound after kick-off (published , recorded )Excluded from the return
Nottingham Forest to winweb.archive.org- Tipster / Source
- Sam Farley
- Prices
- Stated —, market —, closing —
- Published
- Recorded
- Kick-off
- Not stated
- Rule
- v2.2
Statement: Statementwithout a stated priceFound after kick-off (published , recorded )Excluded from the return
Brighton to winweb.archive.org- Tipster / Source
- Sam Farley
- Prices
- Stated —, market —, closing —
- Published
- Recorded
- Kick-off
- Not stated
- Rule
- v2.2
- Why excluded
- This prediction format is not supported.
Statement: Statementwithout a stated priceFound after kick-off (published , recorded )Excluded from the return
Alexander Isak to score firstweb.archive.org- Tipster / Source
- Sam Farley
- Prices
- Stated —, market —, closing —
- Published
- Recorded
- Kick-off
- Not stated
- Rule
- v2.2
Statement: Statementwithout a stated priceFound after kick-off (published , recorded )Excluded from the return
Brighton to win both halvesweb.archive.org- Tipster / Source
- Sam Farley
- Prices
- Stated —, market —, closing —
- Published
- Recorded
- Kick-off
- Not stated
- Rule
- v2.2
- Why excluded
- This prediction format is not supported.
Statement: Statementwithout a stated priceFound after kick-off (published , recorded )Excluded from the return
Arsenal to winweb.archive.org- Tipster / Source
- Sam Farley
- Prices
- Stated —, market —, closing —
- Published
- Recorded
- Kick-off
- Not stated
- Rule
- v2.2
- Why excluded
- This prediction format is not supported.
Statement: Statementwithout a stated priceFound after kick-off (published , recorded )Excluded from the return
Everton v West Ham – Everton to winweb.archive.org- Tipster / Source
- Sam Farley
- Prices
- Stated —, market —, closing —
- Published
- Recorded
- Kick-off
- Not stated
- Rule
- v2.2
- Why excluded
- This prediction format is not supported.
Statement: Statementwithout a stated priceFound after kick-off (published , recorded )Excluded from the return
Raphinha to scoreweb.archive.org- Tipster / Source
- Sam Farley
- Prices
- Stated —, market —, closing —
- Published
- Recorded
- Kick-off
- Not stated
- Rule
- v2.2
- Why excluded
- This prediction format is not supported.
Statement: Statementwithout a stated priceFound after kick-off (published , recorded )Excluded from the return
Both teams to score & over 2.5 goalsweb.archive.org- Tipster / Source
- Sam Farley
- Prices
- Stated —, market —, closing —
- Published
- Recorded
- Kick-off
- Not stated
- Rule
- v2.2
- Why excluded
- This prediction format is not supported.
Statement: Statementwithout a stated priceFound after kick-off (published , recorded )Excluded from the return
Michael Olise and Florian Wirtz to both score or assistweb.archive.org- Tipster / Source
- Sam Farley
- Prices
- Stated —, market —, closing —
- Published
- Recorded
- Kick-off
- Not stated
- Rule
- v2.2
- Why excluded
- This prediction format is not supported.
Statement: Statementwithout a stated priceFound after kick-off (published , recorded )Excluded from the return
#WhatOddsPaddy Ousmane Dembele & Mohamed Salah to have 2+ shots on target each & be fouled 2+ times eachweb.archive.org- Tipster / Source
- Sam Farley
- Prices
- Stated —, market —, closing —
- Published
- Recorded
- Kick-off
- Not stated
- Rule
- v2.2
- Why excluded
- This prediction format is not supported.
Statement: Statementwithout a stated priceFound after kick-off (published , recorded )Excluded from the return
Gijs Smal to commit 1 or more foulweb.archive.org- Tipster / Source
- Sam Farley
- Prices
- Stated —, market —, closing —
- Published
- Recorded
- Kick-off
- Not stated
- Rule
- v2.2
- Why excluded
- This prediction format is not supported.
About this record
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Archive of the previous page layout (kept for the record)
Last change · Reconstruction method 1.1 · Price rule: reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Sample: 3 settled archived picks, 2 matches · View changes to this record
Data changes. Added later: 2 records added on from archived copies; 7 records added on Found after kick-off; 6 records added on Found after kick-off; 1 more record added on other dates. The current numbers include them; numbers published earlier, including the record before each match, do not change.
Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included.
Where Sam Farley publishes
Published under this name on news.paddypower.com.
| Platform | Byline | Predictions | Settled picks | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power News | Sam Farley | 27 | 3 | — |
Record card
To link to this record from your site or bio, copy the line below. It states only the facts of this record.
<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/authors/sam-farley/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 29 September 2026 · 27 predictions · last change 30 September 2026</a>Archived before kick-off · 3 settled archived picks · won 1 of 3
Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.
14 predictions; 3 checked against the final score.
3 settled selections across 2 matches, 5 March – .
Reconstructed at archived prices: −134 points.
Eligible prices were available for 3 of the 3 selections checked against the result.
Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.
Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.
Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices
Won 1 of 3 decided picks; the prices of the same picks implied 46.8%.
By market: Match result 1 of 1 (prices implied 60.2%); Over/under goals 0 of 1 (prices implied 45.2%); Result and both teams to score 0 of 1 (prices implied 34.8%).
The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.
| Price | Same picks | Period | At that price | Reconstructed at archived prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Closing price, aggregator | 2 | −34.64 points | −34 points |
An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.
Found after kick-off · 1 settled after-match pick · won 0 of 1
First Found after kick-off; the date is the one the source states.
13 predictions; 1 checked against the final score.
1 settled selection across 1 match, .
Reconstructed at archived prices: −100 points.
Eligible prices were available for 1 of the 1 selection checked against the result.
Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.
Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices
Won 0 of 1 decided pick; the prices of the same picks implied 31.0%.
The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.
What kind of number is this?
- Measured
- Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; the time of each pre-match web-archive copy.
- Stated
- The author’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.
- Calculated
- Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.
- Unknown
- Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published.
What this record covers
We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything Sam Farley has published.
- Source we monitor
- news.paddypower.com
- Channels
- website
- Watched by us
- 29–30 September 2026
- Earlier entries
- restored from archives, back to
Author's response
No author's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.
Coverage and exclusions
One set of records: the author’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.
- Statements
- 59
- Predictions
- 27
- Qualifying picks
- 4
- Settled picks
- 4
Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.
Statements that are not predictions: 1 opinion and 31 not about a match.
How this return was calculated
Every settled pick in “Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)” is a stake of 100 points at the last pre-match archive price, a reconstruction at archived prices on picks archived before kick-off only. The net result (−134 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 3 settled archived picks; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (300 points), void picks excluded. Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.
Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.
Separate comparison window — last 90 days: the return appears from the first settled pick in this window (method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted
Changes to this record
The headline number above is (reconstruction method 1.1, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only). When it changes, the earlier figure stays here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.
Method changed ·
- Before
- −234.00 points on 4 settled picks across 3 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1
- After
- −134.00 points on 3 settled picks across 2 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1
The headline rule changed on : the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first Found after kick-off no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (4 settled picks). Now: reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (3 settled picks).
Pre-match close: the last market price for the same selection before kick-off. Definition.
Coverage extended ·
- Before
- −134.00 points on 3 settled picks across 2 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1
- After
- −234.00 points on 4 settled picks across 3 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1
Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).
Who this is
- Last recorded by us
- , 38 days before this page's data date
- Observed
- —
- Channels
- website
Statements other than predictions (32 shown)
- “Realistically, Liverpool should beat Southampton” — · source
Introducing Super Sub 2.0: Now with even more markets, including a raft of 2+ and 3+ options!
· Source
Premier League title odds: Who will win the crown this season?
· Source
Premier League top scorer odds: Who are the favourites to win the Golden Boot this season?
· Source
We’ve seen the 25-year-old take 39 shots in his 18 league appearances, at an average of 2.39 per 90 minutes played.
· Source
The Swede has scored 13 times in 18 Premier League games for his club this season and has scored six goals in four straight games.
· Source
Across a full 90 minutes, we’ve seen Jesus average a staggering 2.09 fouls.
· Source
In 19 Premier League appearances this season, he’s already racked up 40 fouls, averaging over two fouls per game.
· Source
The front three of Leandro Trossard, Gabriel Martinelli and Gabriel Jesus can cause Newcastle problems.
· Source
Arsenal are missing Bukayo Saka and potentially Kai Havertz, while Newcastle are without Fabian Schar and Bruno Guimaraes, who are suspended.
· Source
A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 14/1 with Paddy Power.
· Source
Smashing 6,417/1 eight-fold is the biggest Super Sub winner so far
· Source
Happy Birthday Super Sub! More than one MILLION bets kept alive in first 12 months
· Source
An acca with these bets pays at approximately 71/1 with Paddy Power.
· Source
Football Betting Odds Free Bet Calculator Premier League Odds
· Source
Premier League relegation odds: Who are the favourites for the drop this season?
· Source
An acca with these bets pays at approximately 14/1 with Paddy Power.
· Source
Paddy’s Super Sub totaliser: Almost 100,000 EPL bets win from our ace offer so far in 2024/25
· Source
Next Tottenham manager odds: The latest favourites to replace Ange Postecoglou
· Source
A Multi-Match Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 21/1 with Paddy Power.
· Source
An acca with these bets pays at approximately 9/1 with Paddy Power.
· Source
A Multi-Match Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 47/1 with Paddy Power.
· Source
An acca with these bets pays at approximately 17/1 with Paddy Power.
· Source
THE PADDY POWER GUIDE TO SAFER GAMBLING – EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW
· Source
The latest football odds are on PaddyPower.com now
· Source
A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 9/1 with Paddy Power.
· Source
An Acca with these selections pays at approximately 18/1 with Paddy Power.
· Source
This punt includes plenty of player picks which are all covered by Paddy’s Super Sub offer
· Source
A Multi Match Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 39/1 with Paddy Power.
· Source
READ MORE
· Source
A Multi-Match Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 9/1 with Paddy Power.
· Source
A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 30/1 with Paddy Power.
· Source
The full list is in the JSON and CSV downloads of this page.
The same data, machine-readable
From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.
Share cards of this record (2)
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Calculations for the displayed picks
| Prediction | Series | Market and pick | Price | Stake | Result | Points | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United v Crystal Palace Lost | Restored, at the closing market price | Over/Under 2.5 goals — under 2.5 | 2.20 | 100.00 | Lost | −100.00 | retro-1.0 |
| Newcastle United v Crystal Palace Lost | Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off) | Over/Under 2.5 goals — under 2.5 | 2.21 | 100.00 | Lost | −100.00 | retro-1.1 |
| Newcastle United v Crystal Palace Won | Restored, at the closing market price | 1X2, match result — Newcastle United | 1.65 | 100.00 | Won | 65.36 | retro-1.0 |
| Newcastle United v Crystal Palace Won | Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off) | 1X2, match result — Newcastle United | 1.66 | 100.00 | Won | 66.00 | retro-1.1 |