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 "heading": "Sam Farley: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "3 settled picks by Sam Farley archived before kick-off across 2 matches, 5 Mar 2025 – 16 Apr 2025: won 1 of 3, reconstructed at archived prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record restored 3 settled archived picks by Sam Farley from copies archived before kick-off, across 2 matches between 5 March and 16 April 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 1 of 3 settled archived picks. Of the 27 predictions we hold for Sam Farley, 14 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 13 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
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  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
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 },
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  "restored_count": 4,
  "of_them_archived": 3
 },
 "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
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 "modules": {
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 },
 "affiliate_block": {
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  "request_url": "/partnery/moi",
  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
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 },
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   "unit": "percent",
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "no pick in this window has been settled",
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   "n_events": 0,
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   "ci_method": "not_estimated",
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250830134158id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/08/30/football-tips-our-30-1-premier-league-3pm-best-bets-multi-match-bet-builder/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Sam Farley",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "f1f432f11af6caaaa8fa2899783ee27fff88d5e156f7fb0aebb32bab66b09d45",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2025-08-30T11:52:37.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-09-29T00:53:45.519Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "unpriced",
   "status": "not_supported",
   "cause": "",
   "cause_code": "not_supported",
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2025-08-30T11:52:37.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2025-08-30T11:52:37.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-29T00:53:45.519Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-cd0071b02bad7348ec2d56b3",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-cd0071b02bad7348ec2d56b3",
   "quote_text": "A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 30/1 with Paddy Power.",
   "fragment_from": 955,
   "fragment_to": 1035,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250830134158id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/08/30/football-tips-our-30-1-premier-league-3pm-best-bets-multi-match-bet-builder/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Sam Farley",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "f1f432f11af6caaaa8fa2899783ee27fff88d5e156f7fb0aebb32bab66b09d45",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2025-08-30T11:52:37.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-09-29T00:53:45.519Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "ambiguous",
   "cause": "",
   "cause_code": "ambiguous",
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2025-08-30T11:52:37.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2025-08-30T11:52:37.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-29T00:53:45.519Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "excluded_from_feed": {
  "ads": 3,
  "service": 5,
  "ruleset_version": "3"
 },
 "standing": null,
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 4,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 3,
  "found_post_match": 1,
  "of_them_source_reported": 0,
  "live_count": 0,
  "date_count": 3,
  "span_from": "2025-03-05",
  "span_to": "2025-08-16",
  "line_text": "restored history: 4, of which pre-match archive 3",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League and Champions League matches between 5 March 2025 and 16 August 2025 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 4. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 3. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 1. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 4,
   "share": "0.25"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 0,
    "roi": null,
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": "no restored pick with this price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "n": 2,
    "roi": "-17.3200",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 4,
    "roi": "-58.5000",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Premier League",
   "Champions League"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 3 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 1 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged."
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": null,
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "news.paddypower.com",
   "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250906033108id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/01/07/arsenal-newcastle-free-football-betting-tips-bet-builder-today-tuesday-carabao-cup/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-09-29",
  "observed_to": "2026-09-30",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
  "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
  "restored": true,
  "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
  "headline_part": "archived",
  "settled_picks": 3,
  "matches": 2,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -13400,
  "staked_hundredths": 30000,
  "return_percent": "-44.67",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2025-03-05",
  "period_to": "2025-04-16",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 3 settled archived picks by Sam Farley from copies archived before kick-off, across 2 matches between 5 March and 16 April 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 1 of 3 settled archived picks. Of the 27 predictions we hold for Sam Farley, 14 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 13 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled archived picks",
    "value": "3",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "2",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−134 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "value": "−44.7%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": null
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": null,
   "archived": {
    "part": "archived",
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
    "settled_picks": 3,
    "matches": 2,
    "match_dates": 2,
    "period_from": "2025-03-05",
    "period_to": "2025-04-16",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -13400,
    "low": {
     "date": "2025-04-16",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -13400,
     "after_picks": 3
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2025-03-05",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
     "after_picks": 1
    },
    "line_drawn": false,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2025-03-05",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-16",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -13400,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 2
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record restored 3 settled archived picks by Sam Farley from copies archived before kick-off, across 2 matches between 5 March and 16 April 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 1 of 3 settled archived picks. Of the 27 predictions we hold for Sam Farley, 14 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 13 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/sam-farley/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "retro-1.1"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 27,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 0,
   "proven_predictions": 14,
   "proven_checked": 3,
   "proven_measured": 3,
   "proven_dates": 2,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 14,
     "checked": 3,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 3,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 2,
      "net_points_hundredths": -13400,
      "staked_hundredths": 30000,
      "return_percent": "-44.67",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2025-03-05",
      "period_to": "2025-04-16",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Closing price, aggregator",
       "series_code": "retro_market_closing",
       "picks": 2,
       "return_main_percent": "-17.00",
       "return_other_percent": "-17.32",
       "settled_excluding_void": 2,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -3400,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -3464,
       "period_from": "2025-04-16",
       "period_to": "2025-04-16"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 3,
      "priced": 3
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 3,
      "won": 1,
      "won_percent": "33.3",
      "implied_percent": "46.8",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "60.2"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "45.2"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and both teams to score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "34.8"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 13,
     "checked": 1,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 1,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 1,
      "net_points_hundredths": -10000,
      "staked_hundredths": 10000,
      "return_percent": "-100.00",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2025-08-16",
      "period_to": "2025-08-16",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 1,
      "priced": 1
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 1,
      "won": 0,
      "won_percent": "0.0",
      "implied_percent": "31.0",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Result and both teams to score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "31.0"
       }
      ]
     }
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-8642762ce1136fb1efa86a61",
   "n-ecd680a80ffd54024afe30cd",
   "n-ef810084d5f003a85abecf75"
  ],
  "interval_low": null,
  "interval_high": null,
  "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 5 March – 16 April 2025 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1",
  "record_from": "2025-03-05",
  "record_to": "2025-08-16"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-daff97650bcf36149119e61c",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Wolverhampton Wanderers v Manchester City",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-08-16T16:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -9800.4,
   "market_code": "both_teams_score_and_result",
   "author_said": "Match result and both teams to score: Manchester City win, both teams to score: yes",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "0-4",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": "3.2250",
   "published_at": "2025-08-16T15:11:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-29T00:54:19.649Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-ecd680a80ffd54024afe30cd",
   "url": "/authors/sam-farley/picks/2/#pick-n-ecd680a80ffd54024afe30cd",
   "match": "Newcastle United v Crystal Palace",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-04-16T18:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -12726.5,
   "market_code": "total",
   "author_said": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: under 2.5",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "5-0",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": "2.2100",
   "published_at": "2025-04-16T15:21:46.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-29T00:59:18.844Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": true,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-ecd680a80ffd54024afe30cd",
    "quote_text": "Under 2.5 goals",
    "fragment_from": 751,
    "fragment_to": 766,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250416170328id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/04/16/newcastle-crystal-palace-premier-league-football-betting-tips/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Sam Farley",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "3aae8d7b14c4510413090b3c4bb0dd6e9896a31f4aef36fdfd112bb4c7736e6d",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": "2025-04-16T15:21:46.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-29T00:59:18.844Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:21:15.806Z",
    "statement_class": "unpriced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
     "event_id": null,
     "display_name": "Newcastle United v Crystal Palace",
     "competition_name": "Premier League",
     "starts_at": "2025-04-16T18:30:00.000Z",
     "url": null,
     "scoreline": "5-0"
    },
    "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
    "outcome_label": "under 2.5",
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   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-04-12T13:24:03.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-29T01:00:04.286Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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  },
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   "competition": null,
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   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
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   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
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   "reason_code": "not_supported",
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   "published_at": "2025-04-01T15:40:56.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T00:31:27.542Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
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  },
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   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Everton v West Ham – Everton to win",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
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   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T00:32:55.807Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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   "favourite": null,
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  },
  {
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   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Raphinha to score",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
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   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-03-11T11:06:02.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:18:37.387Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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   "favourite": null,
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  },
  {
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   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-03-08T11:19:29.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T00:34:19.899Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
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   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Michael Olise and Florian Wirtz to both score or assist",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-03-05T11:31:02.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:21:33.503Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-7e9176178d6a7cea59aad444",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "#WhatOddsPaddy Ousmane Dembele & Mohamed Salah to have 2+ shots on target each & be fouled 2+ times each",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-03-05T11:31:02.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:21:33.503Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-18f5107373148d611024f8ac",
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   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Gijs Smal to commit 1 or more foul",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-03-05T11:31:02.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:21:33.503Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-9c7cabd1af6da586320ba8bb",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Under 2.5 goals",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-02-25T08:55:39.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T00:35:52.276Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-acebb25589e77ae103f84d4e",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Under 2.5 goals",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-02-22T12:25:28.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T00:36:38.180Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-4bd2ceb53221cf48387e3828",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Alexander Isak to score",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-02-15T12:30:10.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T00:37:24.523Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
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   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Son Heung-min to score",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-30T16:01:57.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:33:04.975Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-7adf42580d602c16cd6d9f10",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Erling Haaland to score",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-29T16:28:21.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:33:59.075Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-4c88e6a040fb7cdb6972233c",
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   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Under 2.5 goals",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-07T16:00:10.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:53:28.971Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-fc1d64c4cae6805532190186",
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   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Gabriel Jesus to commit 1+ fouls",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-07T16:00:10.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:53:28.971Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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 ],
 "lead_time": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "threshold_hours": 2.0,
  "picks": 4,
  "before_kickoff": 0,
  "after_kickoff": 4,
  "at_least_2h": 0,
  "share_2h_plus": 0.0,
  "median_hours": null,
  "min_hours": null,
  "max_hours": null,
  "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off."
 },
 "baseline": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "rule": "recorded-line-1.0",
  "state": "none",
  "picks": 0,
  "settled_picks_all": 0,
  "excluded": {
   "market_without_favourite": 0,
   "no_recorded_line": 0,
   "favourite_not_settled": 0
  },
  "staked_hundredths": 0,
  "author_net_hundredths": 0,
  "favourite_net_hundredths": 0,
  "difference_hundredths": 0,
  "author_return_percent": null,
  "favourite_return_percent": null,
  "author_hit_rate": null,
  "favourite_hit_rate": null,
  "picked_favourite_share": null,
  "by_market": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out."
 },
 "pagination": {
  "per_page": 20,
  "total": 27,
  "pages": 3,
  "page_urls": [
   "/authors/sam-farley/",
   "/authors/sam-farley/picks/2/",
   "/authors/sam-farley/picks/3/"
  ],
  "groups": {
   "settled": 4,
   "pending": 0,
   "excluded": 23
  },
  "continuation": "by_time",
  "page": 1,
  "first": 1,
  "last": 20,
  "author_url": "/authors/sam-farley/",
  "current": false
 },
 "title_tag": "Sam Farley Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources",
 "calculator": null,
 "person": {
  "person_id": "o-e9b3028bb3c7fa73c588f49f",
  "type_code": "individual",
  "name_shown": "Sam Farley",
  "main_entity": "e-e9b3028bb3c7fa73c588f49f",
  "identity": {
   "status": "not_verified",
   "is_verified": false,
   "when": null,
   "source_list": []
  },
  "platform_list": [
   {
    "entity_ref": "e-e9b3028bb3c7fa73c588f49f",
    "medium": "Paddy Power News",
    "channel": "section pages",
    "domain": "news.paddypower.com",
    "source_info": "paddy-power",
    "byline": "Sam Farley",
    "url": "/sources/paddy-power/",
    "summary": {
     "statements": 59,
     "predictions": 27,
     "settled_picks": 3,
     "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
     "return_percent": -44.67,
     "headline_part": "archived",
     "period_from": "2026-09-29",
     "period_to": "2026-09-30"
    }
   }
  ],
  "previously": [],
  "trust_tier": "probation"
 },
 "data_revision": {
  "data_version": "2026-10-09.2",
  "updated": "2026-10-09",
  "current_release": "2026-11-07.2",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "price_rule": "reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
  "sample": {
   "settled_picks": 3,
   "matches": 2,
   "void": 0,
   "period_from": "2025-03-05",
   "period_to": "2025-04-16",
   "composition_hash": "9ce380d66cdeb9c1ce36fbe8ce2dafa0bb12d0ed9612f6e51b5bd3258b7e32ce"
  },
  "changes_url": "#changes",
  "corrections_url": "/corrections/"
 },
 "number_changes": [
  {
   "id": "zc-2ec67dcdf145871a7ae0",
   "at": "2026-10-09T12:49:36.723Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-09.2",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-09.1",
   "url": "/authors/sam-farley/",
   "category": "method_changed",
   "category_words": "Method changed",
   "before": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-09.1",
    "return_percent": "-58.50",
    "settled_picks": 4,
    "matches": 3,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "fad6b5f9a6029e71cfb0367ca064a3d604e9fa4fe82b82f910178626d05a66d4",
    "text": "−234.00 points on 4 settled picks across 3 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-09.2",
    "return_percent": "-44.67",
    "settled_picks": 3,
    "matches": 2,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "9ce380d66cdeb9c1ce36fbe8ce2dafa0bb12d0ed9612f6e51b5bd3258b7e32ce",
    "text": "−134.00 points on 3 settled picks across 2 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, a historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first found after the match no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (4 settled picks). Now: historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (3 settled picks).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
    "added": 0,
    "removed": 1,
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