Joe Townsend: football tipster record — archive reconstruction

Record overview

• 24 recorded before kick-off · since 6 Oct 2026
• 30 from the pre-match archive · 2024–2026

Record details and history below

Where Joe Townsend publishes

Published under this name on sportinglife.com.

Totals are kept per platform. Predictions from every platform are listed below, each marked with its platform.

Record card

To link to this record from your site or bio, copy the line below. It states only the facts of this record.

<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/authors/joe-townsend/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 199 predictions · last change 6 November 2026</a>

Recorded before kick-off: supporting evidence

Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.

How the market price is set

Recorded before kick-off, graded after the match

13 predictions recorded before kick-off. Right in 4 of 12.

Prices implied by market

By market: Over/under goals 3 of 3 (3 W / 0 L) Small sample (3); Match result 2 of 2 (2 W / 0 L) Small sample (2); Draw no bet 1 of 1 (1 W / 0 L) Small sample (1).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Score forecasts without a betting market price

Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.

None of the 2 score forecasts named the exact score.

The result implied by the named score was right in 0 of 1 match; the market favourite was right in 1 of the same match.

A pre-match market favourite is known for 1 of 2 forecasts; the comparison uses only those.

The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.

The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).

Archived before kick-off · 15 settled archived picks · −8.2%

Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.

62 predictions; 30 checked against the final score.

15 settled selections across 15 matches, 14 September 2024 – 14 May 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −8.2% (95.0% interval −63.2% to +52.5%).

Eligible prices were available for 15 of the 30 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 6 of 15 decided picks (40.0%); the prices of the same picks implied 41.2%.

By market: Over/under goals 3 of 3 (3 W / 0 L) Small sample (3); Match result 2 of 2 (2 W / 0 L) Small sample (2); Draw no bet 1 of 1 (1 W / 0 L) Small sample (1).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Score forecasts without a betting market price

Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.

None of the 6 score forecasts named the exact score.

The result implied by the named score was right in 5 of 6 matches; the market favourite was right in 4 of the same 6 matches.

The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).

The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).

Found after kick-off

First Found after kick-off; the date is the one the source states.

2 predictions; 0 checked against the final score.

Source-reported history · 52 settled source-reported picks · −23.8%

The time and the pick are known only from the source’s own history; it is the basis of the record check and never part of the evidenced total.

66 predictions; 53 checked against the final score.

52 settled selections across 41 matches, 3 February 2025 – 9 September 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −23.8% (95.0% interval −51.6% to +11.1%).

Eligible prices were available for 52 of the 53 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 18 of 52 decided picks (34.6%); the prices of the same picks implied 38.8%.

By market: Over/under goals 3 of 3 (3 W / 0 L) Small sample (3); Match result 2 of 2 (2 W / 0 L) Small sample (2); Draw no bet 1 of 1 (1 W / 0 L) Small sample (1).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.

Record details and history

Record details

• Most recorded: Match result (1X2) · 18 matches

  Match result (1X2) 10/18 (18 matches); Correct score 0/8 (8 matches); Goalscorer picks 2/7 (6 matches); Goals over/under 4/5 (4 matches); Bet-builder combos 1/4 (3 matches); Double chance and draw no bet 1/3 (3 matches); Player props 0/3 (3 matches); Team goals and win to nil 1/3 (3 matches)

  Most recorded bet type: the rule

• Exact scores · 0/8

  before kick-off 0/2 · archive 0/6

  Exact scores: the rule

• Minority calls · 0/1

  Result calls on matches with at least 8 other tipsters and sources, where at least 60.0% of them named another outcome.

  Minority calls: the rule

• Longest price: correct at 3.75 · 5 Oct 2024

  Everton v Newcastle United · Draw at 3.75 (archive closing price) · from the predicted score: Correct score: Everton 1-1 Newcastle United

  Pre-match close: the last market price for the same selection before kick-off. Definition.

  Correct at a long price: the rule

Each title is a fact about past picks, by published rules. How titles work

What kind of number is this?

Measured

Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; our pre-match market snapshot of each settled pick; the time of each pre-match web-archive copy.

Stated

The author’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.

Calculated

Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.

Unknown

Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published.

The four data statuses

What this record covers

We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything Joe Townsend has published.

Source we monitor

sportinglife.com

Channels

website

Watched by us

28 September – 6 November 2026

Earlier entries

restored from archives, back to 14 September 2024

Without a match page

40 predictions

Author's response

No author's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.

Respond or request a correction

Coverage and exclusions

One set of records: the author’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.

Statements

327

Predictions

199

Qualifying picks

97

Settled picks

83

Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.

Statements that are not predictions: 34 opinions and 94 not about a match.

How this return was calculated

Every settled pick in “Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)” is a stake of 100 points at the last pre-match archive price, a reconstruction at archived prices on picks archived before kick-off only. The net result (−122.50 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 15 settled archived picks; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (1,500 points), void picks excluded. Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.

Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.

Separate comparison window — last 90 days: +778.95 points on 6 live picks settled in this window · 5 matches · 17 October – 4 November 2026 (calculated, method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted

Changes to this record

The headline number above is (reconstruction method 1.1, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only). When it changes, the earlier figure stays here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.

Data corrected · 22 October 2026

Before

−13.6% on 19 settled picks across 17 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (19)

After

−8.2% on 15 settled picks across 15 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (15)

The same picks give a different total: the calculation was corrected.

Data corrected · 22 October 2026

Before

−8.2% on 15 settled picks across 15 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (15)

After

−13.6% on 19 settled picks across 17 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (19)

The same picks give a different total: the calculation was corrected.

Data corrected · 19 October 2026

Before

−3.4% on 17 settled picks across 16 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (17)

After

−8.2% on 15 settled picks across 15 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (15)

Data corrected: 2 picks left the headline sample.

Data corrected · 18 October 2026

Before

−13.6% on 19 settled picks across 17 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (19)

After

−3.4% on 17 settled picks across 16 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (17)

The same picks give a different total: the calculation was corrected.

Data corrected · 18 October 2026

Before

−3.4% on 17 settled picks across 16 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (17)

After

−13.6% on 19 settled picks across 17 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (19)

The same picks give a different total: the calculation was corrected.

Data corrected · 16 October 2026

Before

−8.8% on 18 settled picks across 16 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (18)

After

−3.4% on 17 settled picks across 16 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (17)

Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.

Data corrected · 15 October 2026

Before

−17.9% on 20 settled picks across 17 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (20)

After

−8.8% on 18 settled picks across 16 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (18)

Data corrected: 2 picks left the headline sample.

Coverage extended · 13 October 2026

Before

−27.7% on 16 settled picks across 14 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (16)

After

−17.9% on 20 settled picks across 17 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (20)

Added 4 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Coverage extended · 13 October 2026

Before

+15.7% on 10 settled picks across 8 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (10)

After

−27.7% on 16 settled picks across 14 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (16)

Added 6 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Method changed · 9 October 2026

Before

+172.4% on 12 settled picks across 10 matches · author's stated odds, restored · Reconstruction method 1.0 Small sample (12)

After

+15.7% on 10 settled picks across 8 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (10)

The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first Found after kick-off no longer enter the headline number. Was: author's stated odds, restored (12 settled picks). Now: reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (10 settled picks).

Who this is

Last recorded by us

6 November 2026, 1 day before this page's data date

Observed

28 September 2026 — 6 November 2026

Channels

website

Statements other than predictions (14 shown)

• “it's just Jake has pinched that so I looked for something a tad different.” — 30 September 2026, 16:11 BST · source
• “things could have been so different - even if he had simply taken his chances.” — 30 September 2026, 16:11 BST · source
• “To follow.” — 30 September 2026, 16:07 BST · source
• “A match to avoid for me.” — 30 September 2026, 16:07 BST · source

• Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

  · Source

• ALASSANA JATTA has scored in 10 of Notts County's past 17 games

  · Source

• Home 1/2 | Draw 3/1 | Away 17/4

  · Source

• Their bench for the 2-0 win over Bologna on Tuesday demonstrated the squad depth Unai Emery now has

  · Source

• Home 17/20 | Draw 11/4 | Away 11/4

  · Source

• The Hatters striker has just one goal from chances equating to 4.61 expected goals (xG)

  · Source

• Home 11/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 23/10

  · Source

• Super 6 predictions for round 10

  · Source

• Premier League sack race odds, tips and preview: Regis Le Bris and Alvaro Arbeloa backed for tough starts to season

  16 Aug 2026, 00:00 BST · Source

• Nominated for the 2025 Ballon d’Or ⤵️ Cole Palmer@ChelseaFC@England#ballondor

  7 Aug 2025, 15:13 BST · Source

The full list is in the JSON and CSV downloads of this page.

The same data, machine-readable

• Page data (JSON)
• Recorded picks (CSV)

From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.

Share cards of this record (2)

• Bankroll card — Joe Townsend
• Said → happened — Joe Townsend

For the author of this record (1)

• Your record on Forecast Record: Joe Townsend

Check us

• How we count
• Right of reply and complaints
• What we collect
• Corrections log
• Data and API

Calculations for the displayed picks

Record definitions and related evidence

• Return over time
• Recorded picks and results
• Matches
• How this return was calculated
• L
• L
• L
• L
• L
• W
• L
• 10