{
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 "language": "en",
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 "heading": "Joe Townsend: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "15 settled picks by Joe Townsend archived before kick-off across 15 matches, 14 Sep 2024 – 14 May 2026: −8.2% reconstructed at archived prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record restored 15 settled archived picks by Joe Townsend from copies archived before kick-off, across 15 matches between 14 September 2024 and 14 May 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned −8.2% on the total staked. Live record so far: won 6 of 6 settled live picks at our recorded market price. Of the 199 predictions we hold for Joe Townsend, 159 are linked to matches: 29 were recorded by us before kick-off, 62 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive, 66 from the source’s own history and 2 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "key_number": "−8.2%",
  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
  "brand": "Forecast Record"
 },
 "indexable": true,
 "noindex_reason": null,
 "indexing_threshold": {
  "settled_count": 29,
  "date_count": 22,
  "required_settled": 10,
  "required_dates": 2,
  "live_count": 0,
  "restored_count": 11,
  "of_them_archived": 11
 },
 "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z",
 "content_hash": null,
 "meaning_hash": "5896b81fd7d8e53d5f19c1e693337d52cf86b2b8a34bfcfd98514dfcfd32f1e8",
 "dependency_group": "author:e-3f54b4e41ee5a00fa7f17af7",
 "release_id": "20261107-195223",
 "markup": [
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 ],
 "exports": [
  {
   "type_code": "json",
   "url": "/authors/joe-townsend/index.json",
   "bytes": null
  },
  {
   "type_code": "csv",
   "url": "/authors/joe-townsend/picks.csv",
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 ],
 "modules": {
  "affiliate": true,
  "api": true,
  "compare_yourself": false
 },
 "affiliate_block": {
  "container": true,
  "request_url": "/partnery/moi",
  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
  "page_category": "author"
 },
 "restrictions": {
  "name_withdrawn": false,
  "tracker_number": null,
  "withdrawn_quotes": [],
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  "withdrawal_log_number": 0
 },
 "page_links": {
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  "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/",
  "source_coverage": "/coverage/",
  "corrections_log": "/corrections/",
  "api": "/api/",
  "claim": "/claim/"
 },
 "entity": {
  "id": "e-3f54b4e41ee5a00fa7f17af7",
  "public_name": "Joe Townsend",
  "tracker_number": 1973,
  "status": "active",
  "inactive_since": null,
  "verified_creator": false,
  "observation_period": {
   "since": "2026-09-28",
   "until": "2026-11-06"
  },
  "platform_list": [
   {
    "medium": "website",
    "handle": null,
    "url": null,
    "link_confirmed": false,
    "show": true
   }
  ],
  "comment": null
 },
 "headline_number": {
  "metric": {
   "metric_id": "p-e-3f54b4e41ee5a00fa7f17af7-roi-market-price-90d-z99",
   "code_name": "roi_market_price",
   "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot",
   "window_kind": "90d",
   "window_from": "2026-08-09",
   "window_to": "2026-11-07",
   "amount": "129.8250",
   "unit": "percent",
   "data_status": "calculated",
   "cause": null,
   "n_bets": 6,
   "n_events": 5,
   "n_void": 0,
   "ci_low": null,
   "ci_high": null,
   "ci_method": "not_estimated",
   "price_source": "market_price",
   "coverage_percent": null,
   "breakdown": [],
   "methodology_version": "2.2",
   "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
   "enough_for_ranking": false,
   "series_key": "market_price",
   "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
   "series_uid": null
  },
  "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 6 settled picks across 5 matches",
  "average_odds": null,
  "odds_from_author": null,
  "odds_from_snapshot": null
 },
 "metrics": [],
 "history": [],
 "simulation": {
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  "series_label": "No level stake placed",
  "bankroll_hundredths": 1000000,
  "reserve_hundredths": 0,
  "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000,
  "initial_hundredths": 1000000,
  "stake_hundredths": 10000,
  "top_up_count": 0,
  "profit_hundredths": 0,
  "rewards_off": null,
  "data_points": [],
  "top_ups": [],
  "rule": "Every tracked author starts with 10,000 points and stakes 100 per qualifying pick. This author has 0 settled bets, so the bankroll stands at its starting value."
 },
 "simulations": [],
 "completeness": {
  "detected": 327,
  "recognised": 199,
  "accepted": 118,
  "executed": 97,
  "calculated": 83,
  "gaps": [
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   },
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    "figure": 27
   },
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    "cause": "not_checked",
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   },
   {
    "cause": "other reading",
    "figure": 15
   },
   {
    "cause": "National-team matches",
    "figure": 7
   },
   {
    "cause": "disputed_reading",
    "figure": 4
   },
   {
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   }
  ]
 },
 "record_counts": {
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  "statements": 327,
  "of_them_restored": 177,
  "not_predictions": {
   "opinions": 34,
   "not_about_a_match": 94,
   "unclassified": 0
  },
  "predictions": 199,
  "predictions_restored": 128,
  "matches": 21,
  "admitted": 118,
  "qualifying_picks": 97,
  "qualifying_picks_restored": 89,
  "settled_picks": 83,
  "settled_picks_restored": 77,
  "series_list": [
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    ],
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    "settled_picks": 1,
    "void": 0,
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    "matches": 1,
    "operations_settled": 1,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
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    ],
    "methodologies": [
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    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price"
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   {
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    "qualifying_picks": 32,
    "settled_picks": 25,
    "void": 0,
    "pending_picks": 7,
    "matches": 24,
    "operations_settled": 25,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
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    "operations_settled": 67,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
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 "evidence_items": [
  {
   "observation_id": "n-81646bc5d05098dfe1ffe514",
   "url": "/authors/joe-townsend/picks/5/#pick-n-81646bc5d05098dfe1ffe514",
   "quote_text": "Portsmouth to beat Preston at 19/10",
   "fragment_from": 622,
   "fragment_to": 657,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241108134515id_/https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/any-other-bets-sack-race-efl-and-premier-league-tips-for-saturday-9-november/221676",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Joe Townsend",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "ee169389488f36bf69bbdb46910e943eb2ab1efbf0589b93204fdd314ee2396d",
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   "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:13:43.184Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:07.302Z",
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": {
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    "display_name": "Portsmouth v Preston North End",
    "competition_name": "EFL Championship",
    "starts_at": "2024-11-09T15:00:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "3-1"
   },
   "market_label": "1X2, match result",
   "outcome_label": "Portsmouth",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "2.9",
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": "2.8500",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "win",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": 18500,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": "ours",
   "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-11-08T13:45:15.000Z",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2024-11-08T08:03:32.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2024-11-08T08:03:32.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:13:43.184Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-11-08T13:45:15.000Z",
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": "Added to our record on 30 Sep 2026",
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "choice": "Portsmouth",
    "author_odds": "2.9",
    "market_key": "1x2",
    "choice_key": "1",
    "period": "match",
    "line": null,
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "1X2, match result: Portsmouth at 2.9"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "win",
    "scoreline": "3-1",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "in_words": "Won: the final score was Portsmouth 3-1 Preston North End."
   },
   "settlements": [
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     "series_key": "retro_author_price",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Portsmouth",
     "decimal_odds": "2.9",
     "odds_role": "author_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "win",
     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 19000,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:07.297Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    },
    {
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     "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Portsmouth",
     "decimal_odds": "2.8500",
     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "win",
     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 18500,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:07.302Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Joe Townsend",
    "publisher": "sportinglife.com",
    "forecaster": "Joe Townsend",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/any-other-bets-sack-race-efl-and-premier-league-tips-for-saturday-9-november/221676",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
    "verdict_line": null
   },
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-cbd8ab7c87f2c147bd0a4895",
   "url": "/authors/joe-townsend/picks/5/#pick-n-cbd8ab7c87f2c147bd0a4895",
   "quote_text": "MK Dons to beat Swindon at evens",
   "fragment_from": 569,
   "fragment_to": 601,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241108134515id_/https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/any-other-bets-sack-race-efl-and-premier-league-tips-for-saturday-9-november/221676",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Joe Townsend",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "ee169389488f36bf69bbdb46910e943eb2ab1efbf0589b93204fdd314ee2396d",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:13:43.184Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "",
   "cause_code": "too_late",
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "executed_by": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-11-08T08:03:32.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:13:43.184Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
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   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-f41cc9ef9e2ad0831b568e7a",
   "url": "/authors/joe-townsend/picks/5/#pick-n-f41cc9ef9e2ad0831b568e7a",
   "quote_text": "Southampton win (Draw No Bet) at 7/4",
   "fragment_from": 514,
   "fragment_to": 550,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241108134515id_/https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/any-other-bets-sack-race-efl-and-premier-league-tips-for-saturday-9-november/221676",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Joe Townsend",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
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   },
   "published_at": "2024-11-08T08:03:32.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:13:43.184Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:07.290Z",
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": {
    "event_id": null,
    "display_name": "Wolverhampton Wanderers v Southampton",
    "competition_name": "Premier League",
    "starts_at": "2024-11-09T15:00:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "2-0"
   },
   "market_label": "Draw no bet",
   "outcome_label": "Southampton",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "2.75",
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
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    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "loss",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": "ours",
   "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-11-08T13:45:15.000Z",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
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    "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:13:43.184Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-11-08T13:45:15.000Z",
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": "Added to our record on 30 Sep 2026",
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "Draw no bet",
    "choice": "Southampton",
    "author_odds": "2.75",
    "market_key": "draw_no_bet",
    "choice_key": "2",
    "period": "match",
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    "closing": "2.1500",
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    ],
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   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-11f38e80fa62aa37d42755df",
   "quote_text": "things could have been so different - even if he had simply taken his chances.",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "flags": [
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "source_info": {
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "source_info": {
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241024204812id_/https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/any-other-bets-efl-and-premier-league-tips-for-saturday-26-october/221348",
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   },
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    "closing": "1.8300",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
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   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "author_claim": {
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   "source_info": {
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   },
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   },
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    ],
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   },
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    }
   ],
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    "material_url": "https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/premier-league-tips-best-bets-and-super-6-predictions-2425-matchday-7/220834",
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  },
  {
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   "url": "/authors/joe-townsend/picks/3/#pick-n-4fd9f91b12e5514a45c23d46",
   "quote_text": "Palace to beat Liverpool at 11/2 (William Hill)",
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   },
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    "in_words": "1X2, match result: Crystal Palace at 6.5"
   },
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   ],
   "corrections": [],
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   "authorship": {
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    "status": "not_named",
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    "material_url": "https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/premier-league-tips-best-bets-and-super-6-predictions-2425-matchday-7/220834",
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  },
  {
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   "url": "/authors/joe-townsend/picks/3/#pick-n-2fd27f98ad0208672c9eca28",
   "quote_text": "Kamada to be shown a card at 7/1 (Sky Bet)",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241004115654id_/https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/premier-league-tips-best-bets-and-super-6-predictions-2425-matchday-7/220834",
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    "speaker": "Joe Townsend",
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   },
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   },
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   "added_on": "Added to our record on 30 Sep 2026",
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   "author_claim": {
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    "author_odds": "8",
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    "in_words": "Player to be carded: Kamada to be carded at 8"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "cause": "awaiting a final score for this restored pick",
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     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "skipped",
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     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:07.035Z",
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    "material_url": "https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/premier-league-tips-best-bets-and-super-6-predictions-2425-matchday-7/220834",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-a737ef52dc61fc8ab2a8f8ff",
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   "quote_text": "Premier League sack race odds, tips and preview: Regis Le Bris and Alvaro Arbeloa backed for tough starts to season",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   },
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   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
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    "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:10:35.041Z",
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
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   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-b8d3a39a562808895f163b24",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-b8d3a39a562808895f163b24",
   "quote_text": "Nominated for the 2025 Ballon d’Or ⤵️\n\nCole Palmer@ChelseaFC@England#ballondor",
   "fragment_from": 384,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/joe-townsends-outright-tips-and-predictions-premier-league-and-efl-championship-and-league-one/226944",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Joe Townsend",
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    "bundle_id": "34f319b4f3b48ca1548b30df91c41b5fba72630ffb0aa33dcdda8ec256663782",
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   },
   "published_at": "2025-08-07T14:13:46.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:09:15.804Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
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   "event": null,
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   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
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    "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:09:15.804Z",
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    "flags": [],
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "excluded_from_feed": {
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  "service": 12,
  "ruleset_version": "3"
 },
 "standing": {
  "titles": [],
  "publication_mode": "top20",
  "empty_reason": null,
  "rules_version": "catalog-1",
  "insufficient": [],
  "badges_on_page": 0,
  "header_titles": [],
  "record_origin": [
   {
    "portion": "live",
    "n": 24,
    "body": "24 recorded before kick-off · since 6 Oct 2026"
   },
   {
    "portion": "archived",
    "n": 30,
    "body": "30 from the pre-match archive · 2024–2026"
   }
  ],
  "recent_record": [],
  "record_details": [
   {
    "code_name": "M-11",
    "body": "Most recorded: Match result (1X2) · 18 matches",
    "details_words": "Match result (1X2) 10/18 (18 matches); Correct score 0/8 (8 matches); Goalscorer picks 2/7 (6 matches); Goals over/under 4/5 (4 matches); Bet-builder combos 1/4 (3 matches); Double chance and draw no bet 1/3 (3 matches); Player props 0/3 (3 matches); Team goals and win to nil 1/3 (3 matches)",
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live+archived",
    "display_name": "Most recorded bet type",
    "rule_href": "/titles/m-11-most-recorded-bet-type/"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "CS-01",
    "body": "Exact scores · 0/8",
    "details_words": "before kick-off 0/2 · archive 0/6",
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live+archived",
    "display_name": "Exact scores",
    "rule_href": "/titles/cs-01-exact-scores/"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "C-01",
    "body": "Minority calls · 0/1",
    "details_words": "Result calls on matches with at least 8 other tipsters and sources, where at least 60.0% of them named another outcome.",
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "display_name": "Minority calls",
    "rule_href": "/titles/c-01-minority-calls/"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "X-01",
    "body": "Longest price: correct at 3.75 · 5 Oct 2024",
    "details_words": "Everton v Newcastle United · Draw at 3.75 (archive closing price) · from the predicted score: Correct score: Everton 1-1 Newcastle United",
    "url": "/authors/joe-townsend/picks/4/#pick-n-f0645c4e2cc2a618605e787f",
    "provenance": "archived",
    "display_name": "Correct at a long price",
    "rule_href": "/titles/x-01-correct-at-a-long-price/"
   }
  ],
  "history": [
   {
    "code_name": "P-01",
    "body": "5/6 result calls right · week of 30 Sep 2024 · archive record",
    "event_at": "2024-10-06",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "120 days after the event",
    "provenance": "archived"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "E-07",
    "body": "Draw at 3.75 · Everton v Newcastle United · 5 Oct 2024 · archive record",
    "event_at": "2024-10-05",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "90 days after the event",
    "provenance": "archived"
   }
  ]
 },
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 11,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 11,
  "found_post_match": 0,
  "of_them_source_reported": 0,
  "live_count": 0,
  "date_count": 4,
  "span_from": "2024-09-21",
  "span_to": "2024-11-09",
  "line_text": "restored history: 11, of which pre-match archive 11",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League and Championship matches between 21 September 2024 and 9 November 2024 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 11. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 11. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 0. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 11,
   "share": "0.5455"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 11,
    "roi": "172.2118",
    "ci_low": "-19.0000",
    "ci_high": "389.8969",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "n": 0,
    "roi": null,
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": "no restored pick with this price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 6,
    "roi": "48.5833",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_derived_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored score forecast: result implied by the score, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 6,
    "roi": "67.5000",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Premier League",
   "Championship"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 0 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 17 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged.",
  "score_accuracy": {
   "n": 6,
   "share": "0.0"
  }
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": null,
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "sportinglife.com",
   "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241108134515id_/https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/any-other-bets-sack-race-efl-and-premier-league-tips-for-saturday-9-november/221676"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-09-28",
  "observed_to": "2026-11-06",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
  "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
  "restored": true,
  "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
  "headline_part": "archived",
  "settled_picks": 15,
  "matches": 15,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -12250,
  "staked_hundredths": 150000,
  "return_percent": "-8.17",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2024-09-14",
  "period_to": "2026-05-14",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 15 settled archived picks by Joe Townsend from copies archived before kick-off, across 15 matches between 14 September 2024 and 14 May 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned −8.2% on the total staked. Live record so far: won 6 of 6 settled live picks at our recorded market price. Of the 199 predictions we hold for Joe Townsend, 159 are linked to matches: 29 were recorded by us before kick-off, 62 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive, 66 from the source’s own history and 2 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled archived picks",
    "value": "15",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "15",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−122.50 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "value": "−8.2%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": "95% interval −63.2% to +52.5%"
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "This page combines Joe Townsend across 2 platforms. The record above counts each prediction once, even when the same pick (match, market and selection) appeared on more than one platform; each platform keeps its own total under “Where Joe Townsend publishes”.",
   "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [
   {
    "date": "2024-09-14",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
    "n": 1
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-09-21",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10500,
    "n": 3
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-10-05",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 10650,
    "n": 5
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-10-26",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 650,
    "n": 6
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-11-09",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 19150,
    "n": 7
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-01-18",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10850,
    "n": 10
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-03-15",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30850,
    "n": 12
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-03-22",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -19850,
    "n": 13
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-05-09",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -29850,
    "n": 14
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-05-14",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -12250,
    "n": 15
   }
  ],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": {
    "part": "live",
    "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.",
    "settled_picks": 6,
    "matches": 5,
    "match_dates": 4,
    "period_from": "2026-10-17",
    "period_to": "2026-11-04",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": 77895,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-10-17",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 8750,
     "after_picks": 2
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-11-04",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 77895,
     "after_picks": 6
    },
    "line_drawn": false,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2026-10-17",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 8750,
      "n": 2,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 17371,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 53895,
      "n": 5,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-04",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 77895,
      "n": 6,
      "picks": 1
     }
    ]
   },
   "archived": {
    "part": "archived",
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
    "settled_picks": 15,
    "matches": 15,
    "match_dates": 10,
    "period_from": "2024-09-14",
    "period_to": "2026-05-14",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -12250,
    "low": {
     "date": "2025-03-15",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30850,
     "after_picks": 12
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2024-11-09",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 19150,
     "after_picks": 7
    },
    "line_drawn": true,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2024-09-14",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-09-21",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10500,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-10-05",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 10650,
      "n": 5,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-10-26",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 650,
      "n": 6,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-11-09",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 19150,
      "n": 7,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-01-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10850,
      "n": 10,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-03-15",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30850,
      "n": 12,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-03-22",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -19850,
      "n": 13,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-05-09",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -29850,
      "n": 14,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-05-14",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -12250,
      "n": 15,
      "picks": 1
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record restored 15 settled archived picks by Joe Townsend from copies archived before kick-off, across 15 matches between 14 September 2024 and 14 May 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned −8.2% on the total staked. Live record so far: won 6 of 6 settled live picks at our recorded market price. Of the 199 predictions we hold for Joe Townsend, 159 are linked to matches: 29 were recorded by us before kick-off, 62 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive, 66 from the source’s own history and 2 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/joe-townsend/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "retro-1.1"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 199,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 40,
   "proven_predictions": 91,
   "proven_checked": 55,
   "proven_measured": 29,
   "proven_dates": 22,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 29,
     "checked": 25,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 6,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 5,
      "net_points_hundredths": 77895,
      "staked_hundredths": 60000,
      "return_percent": "129.82",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2026-10-17",
      "period_to": "2026-11-04",
      "method_version": "2.2",
      "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0",
      "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0",
      "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 5
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "author_price",
       "picks": 6,
       "return_main_percent": "129.82",
       "return_other_percent": "133.83",
       "settled_excluding_void": 6,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 77895,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 80300,
       "period_from": "2026-10-17",
       "period_to": "2026-11-04"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price",
       "series_code": "closing_live",
       "picks": 3,
       "return_main_percent": "150.48",
       "return_other_percent": "168.54",
       "settled_excluding_void": 3,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 45145,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 50563,
       "period_from": "2026-10-18",
       "period_to": "2026-11-01"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 2,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": 0.0,
      "outcome_checked": 2,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": 0.0,
      "baseline_matches": 1,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 1,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 0.0,
      "favourite_hits": 1,
      "favourite_rate": 100.0,
      "price_basis": "our pre-match snapshot",
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": [
       "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.",
       "0 of 2 score forecasts named the exact score.",
       "The result implied by the named score was right in 0 of 1 match; the market favourite was right in 1 of the same match.",
       "A pre-match market favourite is known for 1 of 2 forecasts; the comparison uses only those.",
       "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.",
       "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)."
      ]
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 25,
      "priced": 6
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 6,
      "won": 6,
      "won_percent": "100.0",
      "implied_percent": "50.6",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 3,
        "picks": 3,
        "implied_percent": "44.0"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 2,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "71.1"
       },
       {
        "market": "Draw no bet",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "29.4"
       }
      ]
     },
     "reviewed_after": {
      "predictions": 13,
      "right": 4,
      "wrong": 8,
      "other": 1
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 62,
     "checked": 30,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 15,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 15,
      "net_points_hundredths": -12250,
      "staked_hundredths": 150000,
      "return_percent": "-8.17",
      "interval_low": "-63.20",
      "interval_high": "52.50",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2024-09-14",
      "period_to": "2026-05-14",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 12,
       "return_main_percent": "-25.71",
       "return_other_percent": "-25.47",
       "settled_excluding_void": 12,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -30850,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -30567,
       "period_from": "2024-09-14",
       "period_to": "2025-03-15"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 6,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": 0.0,
      "outcome_checked": 6,
      "outcome_hits": 5,
      "outcome_rate": 83.3,
      "baseline_matches": 6,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 6,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 5,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 83.3,
      "favourite_hits": 4,
      "favourite_rate": 66.7,
      "price_basis": "last pre-match archive price",
      "pending": 1,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": [
       "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.",
       "0 of 6 score forecasts named the exact score.",
       "The result implied by the named score was right in 5 of 6 matches; the market favourite was right in 4 of the same 6 matches.",
       "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).",
       "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)."
      ]
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 30,
      "priced": 15
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 15,
      "won": 6,
      "won_percent": "40.0",
      "implied_percent": "41.2",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 4,
        "picks": 10,
        "implied_percent": "42.2"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "37.4"
       },
       {
        "market": "Cards over/under",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "47.6"
       },
       {
        "market": "Clean sheet",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "46.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Win to nil",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "26.5"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 2,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "source_reported",
     "title": "Source-reported history",
     "explanation": "The time and the pick are known only from the source’s own history; it is the basis of the record check and never part of the evidenced total.",
     "predictions": 66,
     "checked": 53,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 52,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 41,
      "net_points_hundredths": -123950,
      "staked_hundredths": 520000,
      "return_percent": "-23.84",
      "interval_low": "-51.62",
      "interval_high": "11.08",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2025-02-03",
      "period_to": "2026-09-09",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 2,
       "return_main_percent": "167.50",
       "return_other_percent": "175.00",
       "settled_excluding_void": 2,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 33500,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 35000,
       "period_from": "2025-03-04",
       "period_to": "2026-01-29"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 53,
      "priced": 52
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 52,
      "won": 18,
      "won_percent": "34.6",
      "implied_percent": "38.8",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 4,
        "picks": 13,
        "implied_percent": "41.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Win to nil",
        "won": 5,
        "picks": 12,
        "implied_percent": "35.6"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 5,
        "picks": 10,
        "implied_percent": "44.6"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and total goals",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 9,
        "implied_percent": "33.7"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 3,
        "implied_percent": "40.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Other markets",
        "won": 2,
        "picks": 5,
        "implied_percent": "35.8"
       }
      ]
     }
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": {
   "predictions": 29,
   "checked": 25,
   "settled": 6,
   "won": 6,
   "void": 0,
   "checked_won": 12,
   "checked_settled": 25,
   "threshold": 10,
   "text": "Live record so far: won 6 of 6 settled live picks at our recorded market price."
  },
  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-062b7873213cf6c76367b33a",
   "n-14c0f561340b6d8ffcd73093",
   "n-36b97a4b3217418e0bb35c72",
   "n-421f93c90487e43fa3687827",
   "n-442074081049095583dc07b3",
   "n-5167d6df9e83eabd108512b2",
   "n-6ee8711d24c252b5f5dbfd72",
   "n-81646bc5d05098dfe1ffe514",
   "n-82ca5bc14198c8eda077fc65",
   "n-897308e6a418014b851164e9",
   "n-975aa6b8b040ce670afe4bb2",
   "n-9bfc2479510acc4427b1d06f",
   "n-9cefe86f83c3433574eacc84",
   "n-c026c6714f973dbb3a952acb",
   "n-ee81256ad0195bf3498f951f"
  ],
  "interval_low": "-63.20",
  "interval_high": "52.50",
  "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 14 September 2024 – 14 May 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1",
  "record_from": "2024-09-14",
  "record_to": "2026-11-06"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
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   "group": "excluded",
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   "quote": "0.5pt Murillo to score from outside the box at 125/1 (William Hill)",
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   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
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   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
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   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "0.5pt Murillo to score from outside the box at 70/1 (William Hill)",
   "group": "excluded",
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   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
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   "quote": "0.5pt No goalscorer in West Ham vs Palace at 11/1 (Betfred)",
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   "quote": "2pts Swindon to beat Barrow at 29/20 (888Sport)",
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   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
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  "before_kickoff": 29,
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  "at_least_2h": 29,
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 "baseline": {
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  "picked_favourite_share": 0.0,
  "by_market": [
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    "author_net_hundredths": -20000,
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    "picked_favourite": 0,
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   {
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    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -20000,
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  "page_urls": [
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  "groups": {
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   "pending": 2,
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  },
  "continuation": "by_time",
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 "title_tag": "Joe Townsend Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources",
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     "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
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   {
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    "composition_hash": "6b315eb69ea7676fba3d8bed01077ea70c2237fee2bb4514c9264abe2a95b76a",
    "text": "−8.17% on 15 settled picks across 15 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
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   "reason": "The same picks give a different total: the calculation was corrected.",
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    "text": "−13.55% on 19 settled picks across 17 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
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   },
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    "text": "−3.38% on 17 settled picks across 16 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "composition_hash": "bd872d327009c7cc0a26d09071737aabe16ecff71202ac141d0117c0674a18c5",
    "text": "−13.55% on 19 settled picks across 17 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "The same picks give a different total: the calculation was corrected.",
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    "text": "−27.72% on 16 settled picks across 14 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
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