Neds: football prediction source record

About this publishing channel

Neds is a publishing channel. Its predictions are tracked as a source record.

Record card

To link to this record from your site or bio, copy the line below. It states only the facts of this record.

<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/sources/neds-com-au/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 17 October 2026 · 629 predictions · last change 7 November 2026</a>

Recorded before kick-off: supporting evidence

Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.

How the market price is set

Recorded before kick-off, graded after the match

19 predictions recorded before kick-off. Right in 4 of 18.

Prices implied by market

By market: Match result 10 of 19 (prices implied 45.7% Small sample (19)); Player to score 4 of 10 (prices implied 35.7% Small sample (10)); Both teams to score 4 of 8 (4 W / 4 L, average odds 1.62) Small sample (8); Over/under goals 4 of 7 (4 W / 3 L, average odds 2.06) Small sample (7); Result and both teams to score 0 of 2 (0 W / 2 L, average odds 3.41) Small sample (2); Other markets 1 of 3 (1 W / 2 L) Small sample (3).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own. 1 pick left out: void, or half won or half lost on a quarter-goal line.

An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.

Score forecasts without a betting market price

Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.

1 of 15 score forecasts named the exact score (6.7%).

The result implied by the named score was right in 6 of 15 matches; the market favourite was right in 7 of the same 15 matches.

The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.

The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).

Found after kick-off

First Found after kick-off; the date is the one the source states.

15 predictions; 8 checked against the final score.

What kind of number is this?

Measured

Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; our pre-match market snapshot of each settled pick.

Stated

The source’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.

Calculated

Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.

Unknown

Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published.

The four data statuses

What this record covers

We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything Neds has published.

Source we monitor

neds.com.au

Channels

website

Watched by us

17 October – 7 November 2026

Without a match page

495 predictions

Stated price vs market

How the prices this source stated compare with an independent market price of the same selection. Calculated from the picks where both prices are known; a gap can come from market movement or from one bookmaker offering more than the market, so it describes the stated prices, not the reason for them.

Our market price when we first recorded the pick — our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off). Difference = the source's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5.0% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the source’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way.

Largest gaps: 4.75 against 4.00 (+18.8%) · 7.00 against 6.00 (+16.7%)

Source's response

No source's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.

Respond or request a correction

Coverage and exclusions

One set of records: the source’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.

Statements

995

Predictions

629

Qualifying picks

75

Settled picks

58

Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.

Statements that are not predictions: 155 opinions and 200 not about a match.

How this return was calculated

Every settled pick in “Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price” is a stake of 100 points at our recorded market price, a pre-match snapshot of the same selection. The net result (−47.90 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 50 settled live picks; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (4,900 points), void picks excluded (1 void). Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.

Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.

Separate comparison window — last 90 days: −1.0% on 50 live picks settled in this window · 33 matches · 23 October – 7 November 2026 (calculated, method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted

Changes to this record

Earlier figures stay here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.

Coverage extended · 7 November 2026

Before

+15.4% on 33 settled picks across 23 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

After

−1.0% on 50 settled picks across 33 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

Added 9 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture); also 8 new results.

New results · 7 November 2026

Before

+13.7% on 32 settled picks across 22 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

After

+15.4% on 33 settled picks across 23 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous record update.

New results · 5 November 2026

Before

+13.3% on 27 settled picks across 17 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (27)

After

+13.7% on 32 settled picks across 22 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

5 new settled picks from matches played after the previous record update.

Coverage extended · 4 November 2026

Before

+20.1% on 21 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (21)

After

+13.3% on 27 settled picks across 17 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (27)

Added 6 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

New results · 3 November 2026

Before

+15.4% on 20 settled picks across 10 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (20)

After

+20.1% on 21 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (21)

1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous record update.

Coverage extended · 2 November 2026

Before

+20.3% on 15 settled picks across 9 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (15)

After

+15.4% on 20 settled picks across 10 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (20)

Added 5 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Coverage extended · 1 November 2026

Before

+14.2% on 14 settled picks across 9 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (14)

After

+20.3% on 15 settled picks across 9 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (15)

Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

New results · 31 October 2026

Before

−300.00 points on 3 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

After

+14.2% on 14 settled picks across 9 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (14)

11 new settled picks from matches played after the previous record update.

New results · 27 October 2026

Before

−100.00 points on 1 settled pick across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

After

−300.00 points on 3 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

2 new settled picks from matches played after the previous record update.

New results · 25 October 2026

Before

no published headline number

After

−100.00 points on 1 settled pick across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

First headline number for this record: 1 settled pick in the series “independent odds snapshot”.

Who this is

Last recorded by us

7 November 2026, the date of this page's data

Observed

17 October 2026 — 7 November 2026

Channels

website

Statements other than predictions (28 shown)

• “Collin Murray-Boyles Over Points Total” — 6 November 2026, 21:41 GMT · source
• “Donovan Mitchell is playing okay but still averaging only 22 points a game, well below the 28 he” — 6 November 2026, 21:37 GMT · source
• “Cleveland sits Top 5 in points score per game, but it’s become increasingly clear that they aren’” — 6 November 2026, 21:37 GMT · source
• “It’s only early, but the warning signs around the Cavs are hard to ignore.” — 6 November 2026, 21:37 GMT · source
• “There’ll be no lull in intensity either side of half time here as both New Zealand and Tonga roll out” — 6 November 2026, 19:57 GMT · source
• “The two best middle-forward rotations in the World Cup finally meet and it should make for a hell of” — 6 November 2026, 19:57 GMT · source
• “With all the hype focussed around Tonga v Samoa last week, we might have forgotten just how good a match” — 6 November 2026, 19:57 GMT · source
• “Dallin Watene-Zelezniak should’ve had one early & Robert Toia was denied a few himself before eventually” — 6 November 2026, 19:59 GMT · source
• “There was a spot on Samoa’s left edge for Tonga to target last week and in a two-point result, it was” — 6 November 2026, 19:59 GMT · source
• “Wales are $1.15 favourites here, but we don’t think this will be a blowout.” — 6 November 2026, 17:53 GMT · source
• “Adelaide is good enough to secure a point at home.” — 6 November 2026, 03:14 GMT · source
• “After consecutive draws, Melbourne has looked the stronger team, but they’re on the road” — 6 November 2026, 03:14 GMT · source
• “this game could be a 0-0 or 1-1 draw.” — 6 November 2026, 03:14 GMT · source
• “with the Glory playing at home, we’re taking the $2.40 odds, which is a good price.” — 6 November 2026, 03:06 GMT · source
• “They have yet to score a win, and we don’t fancy their chances of bouncing back from a loss.” — 6 November 2026, 03:06 GMT · source
• “The same can’t be said for the Newcastle Jets, who had a lot of pre-season hype, but they” — 6 November 2026, 03:06 GMT · source
• “They could firm into $1.50, so take the extra value.” — 6 November 2026, 02:49 GMT · source
• “Take the short odds for Sydney to win, and those odds should firm throughout the week.” — 6 November 2026, 02:49 GMT · source
• “Arizona haven’t shown me enough to think they’ve gotten better. Run it back.” — 6 November 2026, 01:00 GMT · source
• “Jordan Love is up there with the best in the league for passing yards per game” — 6 November 2026, 01:02 GMT · source

• Opposing centres have wreaked havoc against the Bucks this year

  6 Nov 2026, 21:41 GMT · Source

• Bet Now: Eagle Farm Race 7

  6 Nov 2026, 10:00 GMT · Source

• Here’s a quick look at the current odds and popular betting markets for the Patriots vs Packers matchup.

  6 Nov 2026, 01:02 GMT · Source

• I will live by Caleb Williams and I will die by Caleb Williams.

  6 Nov 2026, 01:05 GMT · Source

• The Vikes are good, but Josh Allen is still Josh Allen.

  6 Nov 2026, 01:08 GMT · Source

• The question marks around Kyler’s hamstring and the Minnesota offence might be the difference.

  6 Nov 2026, 01:08 GMT · Source

• The Vikings D is very, very good

  6 Nov 2026, 01:08 GMT · Source

• 0-6 and the losses are compounding.

  6 Nov 2026, 00:55 GMT · Source

The full list is in the JSON and CSV downloads of this page.

The same data, machine-readable

• Page data (JSON)
• Recorded picks (CSV)

From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.

Share cards of this record (3)

• Bankroll card — Neds
• A month following Neds
• Turning point — Neds

For the source of this record (1)

• Your titles on Forecast Record: Neds

Check us

• How we count
• Right of reply and complaints
• What we collect
• Corrections log
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Calculations for the displayed picks

Record definitions and related evidence

• Titles and record details
• Return over time
• Coverage and exclusions
• Matches
• Recorded picks and results
• How this return was calculated
• Recorded before kick-off — definition
• 32