Will Reilly: football tipster record — archive reconstruction

Where Will Reilly publishes

Published under this name on bettingnews.baroneracing.com.

Record card

To link to this record from your site or bio, copy the line below. It states only the facts of this record.

<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/authors/will-reilly/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 120 predictions · last change 6 November 2026</a>

Recorded before kick-off: supporting evidence

Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.

How the market price is set

Recorded before kick-off, graded after the match

4 predictions recorded before kick-off. Right in 1 of 4.

Recorded before kick-off: saved by us from the source before the match started, with the time we saved it. Definition.

Prices implied by market

By market: Match result 2 of 4 (2 W / 2 L, average odds 1.48) Small sample (4); Double chance 1 of 1 (1 W / 0 L) Small sample (1); Over/under goals 1 of 1 (1 W / 0 L, average odds 1.88) Small sample (1).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Score forecasts without a betting market price

Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.

None of the 3 score forecasts named the exact score.

The result implied by the named score was right in 3 of 3 forecasts; the market favourite was right in 3 of the same 3 forecasts.

Some matches carry more than one of these forecasts: 3 forecasts on 2 matches.

The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.

The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).

Archived before kick-off · 6 settled archived picks · won 2 of 6

Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.

10 predictions; 8 checked against the final score.

6 settled selections across 2 matches, 25 April – 10 May 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −304 points.

Eligible prices were available for 6 of the 8 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 2 of 6 decided picks; the prices of the same picks implied 44.2%.

By market: Match result 2 of 4 (2 W / 2 L, average odds 1.48) Small sample (4); Double chance 1 of 1 (1 W / 0 L) Small sample (1); Over/under goals 1 of 1 (1 W / 0 L, average odds 1.88) Small sample (1).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Found after kick-off · 8 settled after-match picks · won 5 of 8

First Found after kick-off; the date is the one the source states.

23 predictions; 9 checked against the final score.

8 settled selections across 5 matches, 2 May – 31 August 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: +13.50 points.

Eligible prices were available for 8 of the 9 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 5 of 8 decided picks; the prices of the same picks implied 57.9%.

By market: Match result 2 of 4 (2 W / 2 L, average odds 1.48) Small sample (4); Double chance 1 of 1 (1 W / 0 L) Small sample (1); Over/under goals 1 of 1 (1 W / 0 L, average odds 1.88) Small sample (1).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.

Score forecasts without a betting market price

Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to this score forecast.

The score forecast did not name the exact score.

The result implied by the named score was right in 0 of 1 match; the market favourite was right in 0 of the same match.

The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).

The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).

These forecasts were Found after kick-off; when they were made depends on the date the source gives.

What kind of number is this?

Measured

Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; our pre-match market snapshot of each settled pick; the time of each pre-match web-archive copy.

Stated

The author’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.

Calculated

Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.

Unknown

Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published.

The four data statuses

What this record covers

We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything Will Reilly has published.

Source we monitor

bettingnews.baroneracing.com

Channels

website

Watched by us

29 September – 6 November 2026

Earlier entries

restored from archives, back to 25 April 2026

Without a match page

75 predictions

Stated price vs market

How the prices this author stated compare with an independent market price of the same selection. Calculated from the picks where both prices are known; a gap can come from market movement or from one bookmaker offering more than the market, so it describes the stated prices, not the reason for them.

Our market price when we first recorded the pick — our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off); Closing market price (restored) — the closing market price of the same selection (restored history). Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5.0% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way. The closing price is the final price before kick-off. The price when the pick was published is unknown for restored history, so this row shows the distance to where the market closed.

Pre-match close: the last market price for the same selection before kick-off. Definition.

Largest gaps: 2.75 against 2.59 (+6.2%) · 1.67 against 1.86 (−10.3%) · 1.70 against 1.87 (−9.0%)

Author's response

No author's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.

Respond or request a correction

Coverage and exclusions

One set of records: the author’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.

Statements

210

Predictions

120

Qualifying picks

26

Settled picks

23

Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.

Statements that are not predictions: 24 opinions and 66 not about a match.

How this return was calculated

Every settled pick in “Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)” is a stake of 100 points at the last pre-match archive price, a reconstruction at archived prices on picks archived before kick-off only. The net result (−304 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 6 settled archived picks; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (600 points), void picks excluded. Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.

Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.

Separate comparison window — last 90 days: +431.40 points on 6 live picks settled in this window · 5 matches · 21 October – 7 November 2026 (calculated, method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted

Changes to this record

The headline number above is (reconstruction method 1.1, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only). When it changes, the earlier figure stays here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.

Method changed · 9 October 2026

Before

−33.1% on 13 settled picks across 7 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (13)

After

−304.00 points on 6 settled picks across 2 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first Found after kick-off no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (13 settled picks). Now: reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (6 settled picks).

Coverage extended · 9 October 2026

Before

no published headline number

After

−33.1% on 13 settled picks across 7 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (13)

First headline number for this record: 13 settled picks in the series “second data provider's closing price, restored”.

Who this is

Last recorded by us

6 November 2026, 1 day before this page's data date

Observed

29 September 2026 — 6 November 2026

Channels

website

Statements other than predictions (30 shown)

• “Are Manchester United BACK after Tuesday’s Champions League turnaround?” — 6 November 2026, 18:58 GMT · source
• “Based on the stats, Newcastle should travel with a fair degree of hope.” — 5 November 2026, 14:16 GMT · source
• “Low Expectations could go well here.” — 2 November 2026, 08:24 GMT · source
• “He has to be of interest.” — 2 November 2026, 08:24 GMT · source
• “A repeat of his third at Chepstow the time before could well prove to be enough to land this” — 2 November 2026, 08:24 GMT · source
• “Those figures make the goals markets worth considering” — 27 October 2026, 09:54 GMT · source
• “Anyone else craving a can of refreshing Carabao right about now? No, us neither.” — 27 October 2026, 09:54 GMT · source
• “Sentiment is rarely prudent in relation to punting.” — 15 October 2026, 20:44 BST · source
• “If you trust the stats, everything points towards an Everton win.” — 15 October 2026, 20:44 BST · source
• “Another Friday night under the lights at Dundalk awaits” — 9 October 2026, 12:23 BST · source
• “Another competitive card has been served up at the popular Dundalk Stadium.” — 9 October 2026, 12:23 BST · source

• Man Utd XI (Predicted): Lammens; Yoro, Maguire, Heaven, Dalot; Tielemans, Mainoo; Amad, Fernandes

  6 Nov 2026, 18:58 GMT · Source

• Aaron Wan-Bissaka (thigh) could return this weekend.

  6 Nov 2026, 18:58 GMT · Source

• Manuel Ugarte (knee) remains out.

  6 Nov 2026, 18:58 GMT · Source

• The xG figures tell us that Crystal Palace are currently the worst team in the Premier League

  5 Nov 2026, 14:16 GMT · Source

• Fulham XI (Predicted): Leno; Castagne, Affengruber, Bassey, Robinson; Berge, Charles

  5 Nov 2026, 14:16 GMT · Source

• Ewen Jaouen (hamstring) remains sidelined. Also missing out are Tino Livramento (knee)

  5 Nov 2026, 14:16 GMT · Source

• -View our latest Horse Racing markets

  2 Nov 2026, 14:44 GMT · Source

• Alexander Isak is finding his groove and now has six goals in eight starts this season.

  31 Oct 2026, 17:19 GMT · Source

• Arsenal will be leaving it late before deciding on Noni Madueke’s involvement, but definitely

  31 Oct 2026, 17:19 GMT · Source

• Definitely out are Conor Bradley, Hugo Ekitike, Jeremie Frimpong and Giovanni Leoni.

  31 Oct 2026, 17:19 GMT · Source

• Victor Muñoz and Dominik Szoboszlai are back in contention for a place following injuries

  31 Oct 2026, 17:19 GMT · Source

• Cole Palmer will serve a one-match suspension

  27 Oct 2026, 09:54 GMT · Source

• Florian Wirtz is doubtful with an ankle injury

  27 Oct 2026, 09:54 GMT · Source

• A red card last week against Atlético Madrid means that Leny Yoro is suspended for this game.

  20 Oct 2026, 08:51 BST · Source

• News is awaited on defenders Trevoh Chalobah and Yan Couto.

  20 Oct 2026, 08:51 BST · Source

• Reece James (knock on knee) is considered doubtful (check Friday’s news), and Jamie Gittens (ankle) will certainly miss out.

  15 Oct 2026, 20:44 BST · Source

• Christian Nørgaard (groin) could be involved as he closes in on fitness, but he is highly unlikely to start the match.

  15 Oct 2026, 20:44 BST · Source

• Vitalii Mykolenko could be available. He is recovering from a minor injury picked up whilst on international duty.

  15 Oct 2026, 20:44 BST · Source

• *Odds were correct at time of publishing the article

  9 Oct 2026, 12:23 BST · Source

The full list is in the JSON and CSV downloads of this page.

The same data, machine-readable

• Page data (JSON)
• Recorded picks (CSV)

From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.

Share cards of this record (4)

• Bankroll card — Will Reilly
• A month following Will Reilly
• Said → happened — Will Reilly
• Turning point — Will Reilly

For the author of this record (1)

• Your titles on Forecast Record: Will Reilly

Check us

• How we count
• Right of reply and complaints
• What we collect
• Corrections log
• Data and API

Calculations for the displayed picks

Record definitions and related evidence

• Titles and record details
• Recorded picks and results
• Matches
• How this return was calculated
• W
• EFL Cup (Carabao)
• UEFA Champions League
• 6