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 "heading": "Will Reilly: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "6 settled picks by Will Reilly archived before kick-off across 2 matches, 25 Apr 2026 – 10 May 2026: won 2 of 6, reconstructed at archived prices.",
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  "body": "Forecast Record restored 6 settled archived picks by Will Reilly from copies archived before kick-off, across 2 matches between 25 April and 10 May 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 2 of 6 settled archived picks. Live record so far: won 4 of 6 settled live picks at our recorded market price. Of the 120 predictions we hold for Will Reilly, 45 are linked to matches: 12 were recorded by us before kick-off, 10 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 23 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
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   "detected_at": "2026-10-09T11:35:49.769Z",
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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   "url": "/authors/will-reilly/picks/5/#pick-n-e4d59ce976362240fc9c35cc",
   "quote_text": "Selection: Camino Lad",
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   "source_info": {
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    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
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   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-18262cb9e996dd2cba8481ec",
   "url": "/authors/will-reilly/picks/5/#pick-n-18262cb9e996dd2cba8481ec",
   "quote_text": "Selection: Storm Eric (each-way), although his wide draw tempers confidence, Strong favourite Aiteall would not have to improve by much to land this contest.",
   "fragment_from": 3711,
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    "url": "https://bettingnews.baroneracing.com/2026/10/horse-racing-tips-eight-selections-for-dundalk-on-friday-october-9th",
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    "data_status": "unknown",
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   "url": "/authors/will-reilly/picks/5/#pick-n-d404d8c433ec3d34b34cfa83",
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     "words": "1 in 4",
     "rule": "market probability (1/price) of this one pick",
     "note": "market prices include the bookmaker margin, so the chance is slightly overstated — a cautious figure"
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  "recent_record": [
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    "code_name": "E-07",
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 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 16,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 8,
  "found_post_match": 8,
  "of_them_source_reported": 0,
  "live_count": 7,
  "date_count": 7,
  "span_from": "2026-04-25",
  "span_to": "2026-08-31",
  "line_text": "restored history: 16, of which pre-match archive 8",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League and Champions League matches between 25 April 2026 and 31 August 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 16. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 8. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 8. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 16,
   "share": "0.4375"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 12,
    "roi": "-28.2500",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
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   },
   {
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    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
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    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
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   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 14,
    "roi": "-20.7500",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_derived_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored score forecast: result implied by the score, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 2,
    "roi": "-30.0000",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Premier League",
   "Champions League"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 15 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 2 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged.",
  "score_accuracy": {
   "n": 2,
   "share": "0.0"
  }
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)",
    "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick",
    "compared": 6,
    "above": 1,
    "above_share_percent": "16.7",
    "below": 0,
    "within": 5,
    "median_difference_percent": "0.0",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated"
   },
   {
    "basis": "closing",
    "basis_words": "the closing market price of the same selection (restored history)",
    "basis_short": "Closing market price (restored)",
    "compared": 5,
    "above": 0,
    "above_share_percent": "0.0",
    "below": 2,
    "within": 3,
    "median_difference_percent": "-0.7",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated",
    "sentence": "The author's stated price against the closing price of the same selection: median −0.7% over 5 picks. The price available to followers is the market price, shown separately."
   }
  ],
  "examples": [
   {
    "url": "/authors/will-reilly/picks/6/#pick-n-dfd3989a8d9932dc7d7da99f",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "2.75",
    "market": "2.59",
    "difference_percent": "6.2"
   },
   {
    "url": "/authors/will-reilly/picks/4/#pick-n-a03c696a60d254fe57876330",
    "basis": "closing",
    "stated": "1.67",
    "market": "1.86",
    "difference_percent": "-10.3"
   },
   {
    "url": "/authors/will-reilly/picks/5/#pick-n-d631f7cf702f53921e98ba6b",
    "basis": "closing",
    "stated": "1.70",
    "market": "1.87",
    "difference_percent": "-9.0"
   }
  ],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
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  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "bettingnews.baroneracing.com",
   "url": "https://bettingnews.baroneracing.com/2026/11/man-utd-v-aston-villa-match-preview-team-news-predicted-lineups-betting-tips"
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  "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
  "restored": true,
  "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
  "headline_part": "archived",
  "settled_picks": 6,
  "matches": 2,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -30400,
  "staked_hundredths": 60000,
  "return_percent": "-50.67",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2026-04-25",
  "period_to": "2026-05-10",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 6 settled archived picks by Will Reilly from copies archived before kick-off, across 2 matches between 25 April and 10 May 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 2 of 6 settled archived picks. Live record so far: won 4 of 6 settled live picks at our recorded market price. Of the 120 predictions we hold for Will Reilly, 45 are linked to matches: 12 were recorded by us before kick-off, 10 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 23 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled archived picks",
    "value": "6",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "2",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−304 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "value": "−50.7%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": null
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "Most of this history was found after the matches. Of the 14 selections in this historical price series, 6 have a pre-match archive copy and 8 were first found after the match.",
   "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": {
    "part": "live",
    "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.",
    "settled_picks": 6,
    "matches": 5,
    "match_dates": 5,
    "period_from": "2026-10-21",
    "period_to": "2026-11-07",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": 43140,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-10-21",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
     "after_picks": 1
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-10-29",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 45600,
     "after_picks": 4
    },
    "line_drawn": false,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2026-10-21",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-28",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 34100,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 45600,
      "n": 4,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 35600,
      "n": 5,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-07",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 43140,
      "n": 6,
      "picks": 1
     }
    ]
   },
   "archived": {
    "part": "archived",
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
    "settled_picks": 6,
    "matches": 2,
    "match_dates": 2,
    "period_from": "2026-04-25",
    "period_to": "2026-05-10",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -30400,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-05-10",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30400,
     "after_picks": 6
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-04-25",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -6000,
     "after_picks": 2
    },
    "line_drawn": false,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2026-04-25",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -6000,
      "n": 2,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-05-10",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30400,
      "n": 6,
      "picks": 4
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record restored 6 settled archived picks by Will Reilly from copies archived before kick-off, across 2 matches between 25 April and 10 May 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 2 of 6 settled archived picks. Live record so far: won 4 of 6 settled live picks at our recorded market price. Of the 120 predictions we hold for Will Reilly, 45 are linked to matches: 12 were recorded by us before kick-off, 10 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 23 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/will-reilly/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "retro-1.1"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 120,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 75,
   "proven_predictions": 22,
   "proven_checked": 20,
   "proven_measured": 15,
   "proven_dates": 8,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 12,
     "checked": 12,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 6,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 5,
      "net_points_hundredths": 43140,
      "staked_hundredths": 60000,
      "return_percent": "71.90",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2026-10-21",
      "period_to": "2026-11-07",
      "method_version": "2.2",
      "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0",
      "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0",
      "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 1
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "author_price",
       "picks": 6,
       "return_main_percent": "71.90",
       "return_other_percent": "75.50",
       "settled_excluding_void": 6,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 43140,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 45300,
       "period_from": "2026-10-21",
       "period_to": "2026-11-07"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price",
       "series_code": "closing_live",
       "picks": 5,
       "return_main_percent": "71.20",
       "return_other_percent": "62.00",
       "settled_excluding_void": 5,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 35600,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 31000,
       "period_from": "2026-10-21",
       "period_to": "2026-11-01"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 3,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": 0.0,
      "outcome_checked": 3,
      "outcome_hits": 3,
      "outcome_rate": 100.0,
      "baseline_matches": 3,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 2,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 3,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 100.0,
      "favourite_hits": 3,
      "favourite_rate": 100.0,
      "price_basis": "our pre-match snapshot",
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": [
       "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.",
       "0 of 3 score forecasts named the exact score.",
       "The result implied by the named score was right in 3 of 3 forecasts; the market favourite was right in 3 of the same 3 forecasts.",
       "Some matches carry more than one of these forecasts: 3 forecasts on 2 matches.",
       "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.",
       "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)."
      ]
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 12,
      "priced": 6
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 6,
      "won": 4,
      "won_percent": "66.7",
      "implied_percent": "38.7",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 2,
        "picks": 4,
        "implied_percent": "34.1"
       },
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "57.0"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "38.6"
       }
      ]
     },
     "reviewed_after": {
      "predictions": 4,
      "right": 1,
      "wrong": 3,
      "other": 0
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 10,
     "checked": 8,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 6,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 2,
      "net_points_hundredths": -30400,
      "staked_hundredths": 60000,
      "return_percent": "-50.67",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2026-04-25",
      "period_to": "2026-05-10",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 5,
       "return_main_percent": "-40.80",
       "return_other_percent": "-39.60",
       "settled_excluding_void": 5,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -20400,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -19800,
       "period_from": "2026-04-25",
       "period_to": "2026-05-10"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price, aggregator",
       "series_code": "retro_market_closing",
       "picks": 4,
       "return_main_percent": "-26.00",
       "return_other_percent": "-26.70",
       "settled_excluding_void": 4,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -10400,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -10681,
       "period_from": "2026-04-25",
       "period_to": "2026-05-10"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 8,
      "priced": 6
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 6,
      "won": 2,
      "won_percent": "33.3",
      "implied_percent": "44.2",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Correct score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "11.8"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 2,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "67.8"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "53.1"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "53.2"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 23,
     "checked": 9,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 8,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 5,
      "net_points_hundredths": 1350,
      "staked_hundredths": 80000,
      "return_percent": "1.69",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2026-05-02",
      "period_to": "2026-08-31",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 5,
       "return_main_percent": "5.90",
       "return_other_percent": "11.80",
       "settled_excluding_void": 5,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 2950,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 5900,
       "period_from": "2026-05-02",
       "period_to": "2026-08-31"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price, aggregator",
       "series_code": "retro_market_closing",
       "picks": 4,
       "return_main_percent": "7.25",
       "return_other_percent": "6.24",
       "settled_excluding_void": 4,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 2900,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 2494,
       "period_from": "2026-05-02",
       "period_to": "2026-08-31"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 1,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": 0.0,
      "outcome_checked": 1,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": 0.0,
      "baseline_matches": 1,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 1,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 0.0,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": 0.0,
      "price_basis": "last pre-match archive price",
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": [
       "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to this score forecast.",
       "0 of 1 score forecast named the exact score.",
       "The result implied by the named score was right in 0 of 1 match; the market favourite was right in 0 of the same match.",
       "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).",
       "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).",
       "These forecasts were found after the match; when they were made depends on the date the source gives."
      ]
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 9,
      "priced": 8
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 8,
      "won": 5,
      "won_percent": "62.5",
      "implied_percent": "57.9",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 3,
        "picks": 5,
        "implied_percent": "64.2"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "69.2"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and both teams to score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "31.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Win to nil",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "41.7"
       }
      ]
     }
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": {
   "predictions": 12,
   "checked": 12,
   "settled": 6,
   "won": 4,
   "void": 0,
   "checked_won": 5,
   "checked_settled": 12,
   "threshold": 10,
   "text": "Live record so far: won 4 of 6 settled live picks at our recorded market price."
  },
  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-16c2db63e50f45f0252d0a96",
   "n-754f4d59ab2355e9a9f1d679",
   "n-a03c696a60d254fe57876330",
   "n-b0c761459e49e7a3212c4351",
   "n-d631f7cf702f53921e98ba6b",
   "n-fd14fc22ec97d107379ce6cf"
  ],
  "interval_low": null,
  "interval_high": null,
  "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 25 April – 10 May 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1",
  "record_from": "2026-04-25",
  "record_to": "2026-11-07"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-7b9b286401aa2c7c3c664f5b",
   "url": "/authors/will-reilly/picks/7/#pick-n-7b9b286401aa2c7c3c664f5b",
   "match": "Fulham v Newcastle United",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/fulham-vs-newcastle-united-2026-11-07/",
   "kickoff": "2026-11-07T15:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": 48.7,
   "market_code": "double_chance",
   "author_said": "Double chance: draw or Newcastle United at 1.73",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "1-1",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": 7540,
   "series_code": "market_price",
   "series_short": "odds snapshot",
   "author_price": "1.73",
   "settled_price": "1.7540",
   "published_at": "2026-11-05T14:16:28.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-11-05T14:16:41.696Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "record_part": "live",
   "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-7b9b286401aa2c7c3c664f5b",
    "quote_text": "BEST BET: Newcastle, Double Chance (8/11)",
    "fragment_from": 5799,
    "fragment_to": 5840,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "rss",
     "url": "https://bettingnews.baroneracing.com/2026/11/fulham-v-newcastle-match-preview-team-news-predicted-lineups-betting-tips",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Will Reilly",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "a07e6b9079d0a676cced334ac5ddf6ec006d51927d5fcda1ca0795f4f457adaa",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": "2026-11-05T14:16:28.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-11-05T14:16:41.696Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-05T14:18:37.001Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "recognised",
    "cause": null,
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
     "event_id": "s-5400ee392a3b",
     "display_name": "Fulham — Newcastle United",
     "competition_name": "Premier League",
     "starts_at": "2026-11-07T15:00:00.000Z",
     "url": "/football/matches/fulham-vs-newcastle-united-2026-11-07/",
     "scoreline": "1-1",
     "condition": "finished"
    },
    "market_label": "Double chance",
    "outcome_label": "draw or Newcastle United",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": "1.73",
     "our_snapshot": "1.7540",
     "our_snapshot_at": "2026-11-05T14:15:10.133Z",
     "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot",
     "closing": null,
     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "win",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": 7540,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "recorded_pre_match",
    "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": "2026-11-05T14:16:28.000Z",
     "fragment_basis": "element",
     "source_page_at": "2026-11-05T14:16:28.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-11-05T14:16:41.696Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
    "origin_detail": null,
    "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Double chance",
     "choice": "draw or Newcastle United",
     "author_odds": "1.73",
     "market_key": "double_chance",
     "choice_key": "X2",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "Double chance: draw or Newcastle United at 1.73"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "win",
     "scoreline": "1-1",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "Won: the final score was Fulham 1-1 Newcastle United."
    },
    "settlements": [
     {
      "operation_id": "8756b7a7d2c60ac807b81b23c0de551a7df200ac97af24f4eb757401080d6095",
      "series_key": "author_price",
      "series_label": "At the author's stated price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Double chance",
      "choice": "draw or Newcastle United",
      "decimal_odds": "1.73",
      "odds_role": "author_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "win",
      "result_words": "Won",
      "change_hundredths": 7300,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-05T14:18:33.725Z",
      "methodology_version": "2.2",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     },
     {
      "operation_id": "5c6d2a8ba0a53b4e2477ce0622b30129af75e53cc611ae59dab61c5537a4f278",
      "series_key": "market_price",
      "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Double chance",
      "choice": "draw or Newcastle United",
      "decimal_odds": "1.7540",
      "odds_role": "market_price",
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     "predictions": 120,
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   "after": {
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    "text": "−304.00 points on 6 settled picks across 2 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, a historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first found after the match no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (13 settled picks). Now: historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (6 settled picks).",
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      "code_name": "UEFA Champions League",
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   {
    "code": "archived",
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