Tony Incenzo: football tipster record — archive reconstruction

Where Tony Incenzo publishes

Identity checked on 11 October 2026 against public sources: news.williamhill.com, footballgroundmap.com, thenonleaguefootballpaper.com, racingpost.com.

Record card

To link to this record from your site or bio, copy the line below. It states only the facts of this record.

<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/authors/tony-incenzo/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 906 predictions · last change 6 November 2026</a>

Recorded before kick-off: supporting evidence

Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.

How the market price is set

Recorded before kick-off, graded after the match

49 predictions recorded before kick-off. Right in 2 of 49.

Prices implied by market

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Score forecasts without a betting market price

Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.

5 of 113 score forecasts named the exact score (4.4%).

The result implied by the named score was right in 19 of 48 matches; the market favourite was right in 30 of the same 48 matches.

A pre-match market favourite is known for 48 of 113 forecasts; the comparison uses only those.

The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.

The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).

Archived before kick-off · 21 settled archived picks · −18.9%

Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.

230 predictions; 221 checked against the final score.

21 settled selections across 17 matches, 18 April – 11 May 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −18.9% (95.0% interval −69.1% to +36.3%).

Eligible prices were available for 21 of the 221 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 6 of 21 decided picks (28.6%); the prices of the same picks implied 34.8%.

By market: Match result 2 of 9 (2 W / 7 L, average odds 3.08) Small sample (9).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Score forecasts without a betting market price

Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.

6 of 200 score forecasts named the exact score (3.0%).

The result implied by the named score was right in 66 of 200 matches; the market favourite was right in 98 of the same 200 matches.

The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).

The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).

Found after kick-off · 20 settled after-match picks · −29.7%

First Found after kick-off; the date is the one the source states.

426 predictions; 382 checked against the final score.

20 settled selections across 18 matches, 24 January – 8 September 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −29.7% (95.0% interval −100.0% to +74.7%).

Eligible prices were available for 20 of the 382 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 3 of 20 decided picks (15.0%); the prices of the same picks implied 20.5%.

By market: Match result 2 of 9 (2 W / 7 L, average odds 3.08) Small sample (9).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.

Score forecasts without a betting market price

Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.

16 of 362 score forecasts named the exact score (4.4%).

The result implied by the named score was right in 129 of 359 matches; the market favourite was right in 163 of the same 359 matches.

A pre-match market favourite is known for 359 of 362 forecasts; the comparison uses only those.

The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).

The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).

These forecasts were Found after kick-off; when they were made depends on the date the source gives.

Record details and history

More dated records

• Only one right of 4 tipsters and sources · Home win · 30 Oct 2026

  On show until 28 Jan 2027 · The picks behind it

  • 30 October 2026 · Dundalk v Shamrock Rovers · Correct score: Dundalk 1-0 Shamrock Rovers · score wrong · result right · 3 other tipsters and sources on this match, 0 right (3 named away win)
• Only one right of 5 tipsters and sources · Draw · 24 Oct 2026

  On show until 22 Jan 2027 · The picks behind it

  • 24 October 2026 · Bromley v Peterborough United · Correct score: Bromley 0-0 Peterborough United · score wrong · result right · 4 other tipsters and sources on this match, 0 right (4 named away win)
• Only one right of 9 tipsters and sources · Home win · 24 Oct 2026

  On show until 22 Jan 2027 · The picks behind it

  • 24 October 2026 · Lincoln City v Burnley · Correct score: Lincoln City 1-0 Burnley · score wrong · result right · 8 other tipsters and sources on this match, 0 right (6 named away win, 2 named draw)
• Only one right of 4 tipsters and sources · Draw · 24 Oct 2026

  On show until 22 Jan 2027 · The picks behind it

  • 24 October 2026 · AFC Wimbledon v Wycombe Wanderers · Correct score: AFC Wimbledon 2-2 Wycombe Wanderers · score wrong · result right · 3 other tipsters and sources on this match, 0 right (3 named away win)
• Away win at 3.07 · Wrexham v West Bromwich Albion · 13 Oct 2026

  On show until 11 Jan 2027 · The picks behind it

  • 13 October 2026 · Wrexham v West Bromwich Albion · Correct score: Wrexham 2-3 West Bromwich Albion · score wrong · result right · price 3.07 · 3 other tipsters and sources on this match, 1 right (2 named home win, 1 named away win)
• Exact score 1–1 · Charlton Athletic v Bristol City · 10 Oct 2026

  On show until 8 Jan 2027 · The picks behind it

  • 10 October 2026 · Charlton Athletic v Bristol City · Correct score: Charlton Athletic 1-1 Bristol City · score right · result right · 2 other tipsters and sources named an exact score on this match, 0 right
• Exact score 1–2 · Bolton Wanderers v Stoke City · 10 Oct 2026

  On show until 8 Jan 2027 · The picks behind it

  • 10 October 2026 · Bolton Wanderers v Stoke City · Correct score: Bolton Wanderers 1-2 Stoke City · score right · result right · 3 other tipsters and sources named an exact score on this match, 0 right
• Draw at 4.35 · West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers · 9 Oct 2026

  On show until 7 Jan 2027 · The picks behind it

  • 9 October 2026 · West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers · Correct score: West Ham United 3-3 Queens Park Rangers · score wrong · result right · price 4.35 · 5 other tipsters and sources on this match, 1 right (4 named home win, 1 named draw)

Record details

• Most recorded: Correct score · 267 matches

  Correct score 9/267 (267 matches); Match result (1X2) 5/23 (23 matches); Bet-builder combos 1/5 (5 matches); Goals over/under 1/4 (4 matches); Both teams to score 1/2 (2 matches); Handicaps 0/1 (1 match); Team goals and win to nil 1/1 (1 match)

  Most recorded bet type: the rule

• Exact scores · 9/267

  before kick-off 3/65 · archive 6/202

  Exact scores: the rule

• Longest price: correct at 4.82 · 2 May 2026

  Sheffield Wednesday v West Bromwich Albion · Home win at 4.82 (archive closing price) · from the predicted score: Correct score: Sheffield Wednesday 1-0 West Bromwich Albion

  Pre-match close: the last market price for the same selection before kick-off. Definition.

  Correct at a long price: the rule

• Draw calls · 13/96

  Draw calls: the rule

• Away calls · 18/43

  Away calls: the rule

• Non-favourite calls · 22/134

  Non-favourite calls: the rule

• Most picked team: West Bromwich Albion · 9/25

  Most picked team: the rule

Each title is a fact about past picks, by published rules. How titles work

Are you Tony Incenzo? Show your titles on your site → · Confirm it's you

What kind of number is this?

Measured

Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; our pre-match market snapshot of each settled pick; the time of each pre-match web-archive copy.

Stated

The author’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.

Calculated

Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.

Unknown

Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published.

The four data statuses

What this record covers

We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything Tony Incenzo has published.

Source we monitor

news.williamhill.com

Channels

website

Watched by us

28 September – 6 November 2026

Earlier entries

restored from archives, back to 24 January 2026

Without a match page

117 predictions

Stated price vs market

How the prices this author stated compare with an independent market price of the same selection. Calculated from the picks where both prices are known; a gap can come from market movement or from one bookmaker offering more than the market, so it describes the stated prices, not the reason for them.

Our market price when we first recorded the pick — our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off). Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5.0% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way.

Largest gaps: 3.50 against 3.70 (−5.4%)

Author's response

No author's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.

Respond or request a correction

Coverage and exclusions

One set of records: the author’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.

Statements

1,557

Predictions

906

Qualifying picks

60

Settled picks

55

Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.

Statements that are not predictions: 74 opinions and 577 not about a match.

How this return was calculated

Every settled pick in “Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)” is a stake of 100 points at the last pre-match archive price, a reconstruction at archived prices on picks archived before kick-off only. The net result (−398 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 21 settled archived picks; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (2,100 points), void picks excluded. Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.

Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.

Separate comparison window — last 90 days: −355 points on 9 live picks settled in this window · 9 matches · 13–31 October 2026 (calculated, method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted

Changes to this record

The headline number above is (reconstruction method 1.1, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only). When it changes, the earlier figure stays here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.

Data corrected · 19 October 2026

Before

−1.5% on 22 settled picks across 18 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (22)

After

−19.0% on 21 settled picks across 17 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (21)

Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.

Data corrected · 19 October 2026

Before

−5.8% on 23 settled picks across 18 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (23)

After

−1.5% on 22 settled picks across 18 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (22)

Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.

Data corrected · 16 October 2026

Before

−9.7% on 24 settled picks across 19 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (24)

After

−5.8% on 23 settled picks across 18 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (23)

Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.

Method changed · 14 October 2026

Before

−200.00 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

After

−9.7% on 24 settled picks across 19 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (24)

The headline rule changed on 14 October 2026: the live record at our recorded market price becomes the headline number from 10 settled picks; until then the headline is the record restored from pre-match archive copies, and the live record so far is shown beside it. Was: independent odds snapshot (2 settled picks). Now: reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (24 settled picks).

Coverage extended · 13 October 2026

Before

−100.00 points on 1 settled pick across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

After

−200.00 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Method changed · 13 October 2026

Before

−9.7% on 24 settled picks across 19 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (24)

After

−100.00 points on 1 settled pick across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

The headline number is now calculated in a different series: “independent odds snapshot” (1 settled pick) instead of “reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only” (24 settled picks). The series is chosen by the published rule; the earlier figure is kept here.

Method changed · 9 October 2026

Before

−27.8% on 40 settled picks across 34 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−9.7% on 24 settled picks across 19 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (24)

The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first Found after kick-off no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (40 settled picks). Now: reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (24 settled picks).

Coverage extended · 9 October 2026

Before

−21.8% on 17 settled picks across 12 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1 Small sample (17)

After

−27.8% on 40 settled picks across 34 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.1

Added 23 earlier picks for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Who this is

Last recorded by us

6 November 2026, 1 day before this page's data date

Observed

28 September 2026 — 6 November 2026

Channels

website

Statements other than predictions (15 shown)

• “football betting odds are in a constant state of perpetual fluctuation.” — 30 October 2026, 12:36 GMT · source
• “As we head into the final round of regular season fixtures, there is still a relegation area issue to be resolved.” — 28 October 2026, 14:28 GMT · source

• FA Cup winners as recently as 2021. Currently, the double relegated Foxes have climbed to within three points of League One’s coveted Play-Off zone thanks to one defeat in five EFL games.

  6 Nov 2026, 10:56 GMT · Source

• Two points below pole position in the National League North. Last Saturday’s 3-1 home reverse against South Shields was a first loss across six NLN engagements.

  6 Nov 2026, 10:56 GMT · Source

• Four EFL encounters without victory leave the U’s one point under League One Play-Off discussions.

  6 Nov 2026, 10:56 GMT · Source

• Rovers have lost six of their last seven winless games spanning all competitions.

  6 Nov 2026, 10:56 GMT · Source

• Those ongoing giantkilling acts inject unique magical stardust into the world’s greatest knockout competition.

  6 Nov 2026, 10:56 GMT · Source

• Football betting activity is intense. Particularly concerning plucky Non-League teams hoping to upset the EFL big boys.

  6 Nov 2026, 10:56 GMT · Source

• Simon Weaver said afterwards: “I am embarrassed to be honest.”

  30 Oct 2026, 12:36 GMT · Source

• Meanwhile, the leading aspirants all face home fixtures. So football betting odds are reacting accordingly.

  30 Oct 2026, 10:16 GMT · Source

• Here is my analysis of Friday’s contest, with a considered score prediction to assist your Championship

  29 Oct 2026, 11:54 GMT · Source

• A significant managerial change impacts the build-up to this weekend’s EFL Championship action

  29 Oct 2026, 11:54 GMT · Source

• Congratulations to Shamrock Rovers on winning the League of Ireland Premier Division crown.

  28 Oct 2026, 14:28 GMT · Source

• Here is my analysis of the upcoming games I am looking forward to most alongside score predictions to assist your betting plans.

  23 Oct 2026, 11:26 BST · Source

• All of the leading four sides face home encounters. So football betting odds are reacting accordingly.

  23 Oct 2026, 11:26 BST · Source

The full list is in the JSON and CSV downloads of this page.

The same data, machine-readable

• Page data (JSON)
• Recorded picks (CSV)

From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.

Share cards of this record (3)

• Bankroll card — Tony Incenzo
• A month following Tony Incenzo
• Said → happened — Tony Incenzo

For the author of this record (1)

• Your record on Forecast Record: Tony Incenzo

Check us

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Calculations for the displayed picks

Record definitions and related evidence

• Titles and record details
• Return over time
• Recorded picks and results
• Matches
• How this return was calculated
• Archived before kick-off — definition
• 8 more dated records below
• Record details and history below
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