Tom Carnduff: football tipster record — archive reconstruction

Where Tom Carnduff publishes

Published under this name on sportinglife.com.

Record card

To link to this record from your site or bio, copy the line below. It states only the facts of this record.

<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/authors/tom-carnduff/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 68 predictions · last change 12 October 2026</a>

Archived before kick-off · 3 settled archived picks · won 1 of 3

Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.

46 predictions; 15 checked against the final score.

3 settled selections across 3 matches, 21 September – 2 November 2024.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −126 points.

Eligible prices were available for 3 of the 15 selections checked against the result.

Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 1 of 3 decided picks; the prices of the same picks implied 52.9%.

By market: Both teams to score 0 of 1 (prices implied 51.3%); Match result 0 of 1 (prices implied 50.0%); Over/under goals 1 of 1 (prices implied 57.5%).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.

Source-reported history · 18 settled source-reported picks · +33.5%

The time and the pick are known only from the source’s own history; it is the basis of the record check and never part of the evidenced total.

22 predictions; 18 checked against the final score.

18 settled selections across 17 matches, 5 March 2025 – 11 May 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: +33.5% (95.0% interval −21.6% to +84.4%).

Eligible prices were available for 18 of the 18 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 11 of 18 decided picks (61.1%); the prices of the same picks implied 46.4%.

By market: Corners over/under 3 of 7 (prices implied 41.7%); Match result 4 of 5 (prices implied 47.9%); Both teams to score 2 of 3 (prices implied 53.6%); Cards over/under 1 of 2 (prices implied 46.4%); Over/under goals 1 of 1 (prices implied 49.8%).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

What kind of number is this?

Measured

Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; the time of each pre-match web-archive copy.

Stated

The author’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.

Calculated

Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.

Unknown

Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published.

The four data statuses

What this record covers

We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything Tom Carnduff has published.

Source we monitor

sportinglife.com

Channels

website

Watched by us

28 September – 12 October 2026

Earlier entries

restored from archives, back to 17 August 2024

Author's response

No author's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.

Respond or request a correction

Coverage and exclusions

One set of records: the author’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.

Statements

146

Predictions

68

Qualifying picks

37

Settled picks

33

Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.

Statements that are not predictions: 42 opinions and 36 not about a match.

How this return was calculated

Every settled pick in “Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)” is a stake of 100 points at the last pre-match archive price, a reconstruction at archived prices on picks archived before kick-off only. The net result (−126 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 3 settled archived picks; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (300 points), void picks excluded. Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.

Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.

Separate comparison window — last 90 days: the return appears from the first settled pick in this window (method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted

Changes to this record

The headline number above is (reconstruction method 1.1, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only). When it changes, the earlier figure stays here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.

Data corrected · 16 October 2026

Before

−226.00 points on 4 settled picks across 4 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−126.00 points on 3 settled picks across 3 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.

Method changed · 9 October 2026

Before

−42.8% on 16 settled picks across 15 matches · author's stated odds, restored · Reconstruction method 1.0 Small sample (16)

After

−226.00 points on 4 settled picks across 4 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first Found after kick-off no longer enter the headline number. Was: author's stated odds, restored (16 settled picks). Now: reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (4 settled picks).

Who this is

Last recorded by us

12 October 2026, 26 days before this page's data date

Observed

28 September 2026 — 12 October 2026

Channels

website

Statements other than predictions (43 shown)

• “That's the hope, anyway.” — 30 September 2026, 16:11 BST · source
• “It could be a comfortable Liverpool win. If it is, Salah will surely have involvement.” — 2 January 2025, 08:59 GMT · source
• “There's also a chance looking at the weather that this game is called off due to a frozen pitch” — 2 January 2025, 08:59 GMT · source
• “Snow, ice, rain and wind are expected in parts of the country which will inevitably play a part” — 2 January 2025, 08:59 GMT · source
• ““If I want to say the things on my mind about the club, I will probably get the biggest fine in the history of the Bundesliga.”” — 15 January 2025, 09:19 GMT · source
• ““This is one big shit season”” — 15 January 2025, 09:19 GMT · source
• “There is some appeal in the double chance in Millwall's favour as the Clarets have been held to draws in four of their last six.” — 30 September 2026, 16:07 BST · source
• “but the goalscorer prices (50/1 first and 20/1 anytime) are far more appealing to me.” — 30 September 2026, 16:06 BST · source
• “Game state is a massive factor in corner betting though and Forest have the potential for a few as they look to break forward with pace.” — 30 September 2026, 16:06 BST · source
• “Different attacking styles but an interesting thing to keep in mind considering how both the Saints and Brighton like to dominate possession.” — 30 September 2026, 16:06 BST · source
• “Standing at 6ft 5', he's brought some much needed aerial presence to the Forest defence.” — 30 September 2026, 16:06 BST · source
• “The centre-back has been really impressive across his first few games at the club.” — 30 September 2026, 16:06 BST · source
• “which makes me want to get involved in NIKOLA MILENKOVIC's goalscorer prices on Sunday.” — 30 September 2026, 16:06 BST · source
• “After all, no side has taken more shots following a 'fast break' than Forest (9) in the Premier League so far.” — 30 September 2026, 16:06 BST · source
• “As covered in the latest edition of the Notebook, Forest's defensive showings have been really impressive.” — 30 September 2026, 16:06 BST · source
• “They meet at the Amex in a game which could become a lot closer than the odds suggest.” — 30 September 2026, 16:06 BST · source
• “Two sides who have started the season in good form - both Brighton and Nottingham Forest are unbeaten across their first four league games.” — 30 September 2026, 16:06 BST · source
• “Considering the opponent, Leicester and Ndidi should see chances to strike.” — 30 September 2026, 16:06 BST · source
• “That's led to an impressive return of three assists across his last two games.” — 30 September 2026, 16:06 BST · source
• “I'm steering well clear of the result in this game because it's too tough to call.” — 30 September 2026, 16:06 BST · source

• Southampton finally made the call to sack the stubborn Russell Martin

  · Source

• This game, and in particular the selection, was discussed heavily with Jimmy before we published our columns.

  2 Jan 2025, 08:59 GMT · Source

• Wir schlagen St. Pauli durch den Hoffi-Treffer!💪😍 #BOCFCSP 1:0

  15 Jan 2025, 09:19 GMT · Source

• Club Statement: Pav Singh#CeltArmyhttps://t.co/aqT93svkQ5

  15 Jan 2025, 09:19 GMT · Source

• Backed Eoin Toal anytime at 11s in the latest column and I've only just seen this chance ffs.

  · Source

• Prices of 4/7 are available on an away victory.

  · Source

• Sean Dyche's visitors have managed to throw away two-goal leads to lose in each of their last two Premier League outings.

  · Source

• although that should have been more based on the chances seen that day.

  · Source

• It's a good match-up.

  · Source

• Freiburg's attack has been creative and firing too.

  · Source

• This has been a winning selection in four of their six games across all competitions so far - five of those games have ended in wins.

  · Source

• Goals have been a feature of Heidenheim's season so far.

  · Source

• Both have started the season in positive fashion but Freiburg's defence has been impressive and somewhat unlucky to have conceded as many as they have.

  · Source

• the 4-1 thrashing of Mansfield a week later suggests that was a one-off outcome.

  · Source

• In short, they were brilliant, particularly at home.

  · Source

• Michael Skubala's side have picked up where they left off from last season.

  · Source

• he should see further opportunities to strike on Friday.

  · Source

• Given the outcome, there's every chance Jess Thorup sticks with an unchanged set-up.

  · Source

• Rather than take the short price on the goals line, I'm intrigued by the 6/1 available on ELVIS REXHBECAJ TO SCORE ANYTIME.

  · Source

• I fancied Mainz for a solid season but the lack of available markets stopped them having any involvement in my outright picks.

  · Source

• Instead, I've targeted five from across three leagues which present relatively attractive betting angles.

  · Source

• Two over-coached sides who are terrified of losing will likely cancel each other out and nothing will happen.

  · Source

• The truth of it though is that it's very likely to be a poor game of football.

  · Source

The full list is in the JSON and CSV downloads of this page.

The same data, machine-readable

• Page data (JSON)
• Recorded picks (CSV)

From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.

Share cards of this record (2)

• Bankroll card — Tom Carnduff
• Said → happened — Tom Carnduff

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Calculations for the displayed picks

Record definitions and related evidence

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