{ "schema_name": "page", "schema_version": "2.0", "page_type": "author", "url": "/authors/tom-carnduff/", "canonical": "/authors/tom-carnduff/", "language": "en", "hreflang": [], "translations": [], "heading": "Tom Carnduff: Football Prediction Record", "description": "3 settled picks by Tom Carnduff archived before kick-off across 3 matches, 21 Sep 2024 – 2 Nov 2024: won 1 of 3, reconstructed at archived prices.", "first_paragraph": { "body": "Forecast Record restored 3 settled archived picks by Tom Carnduff from copies archived before kick-off, across 3 matches between 21 September and 2 November 2024. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 1 of 3 settled archived picks. Of the 68 predictions we hold for Tom Carnduff, 46 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 22 from the source’s own history. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "key_number": "3", "data": "2026-11-07", "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot", "brand": "Forecast Record" }, "indexable": false, "noindex_reason": "too_few_settled", "indexing_threshold": { "settled_count": 3, "date_count": 11, "required_settled": 10, "required_dates": 2, "live_count": 0, "restored_count": 33, "of_them_archived": 15 }, "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z", "content_hash": null, "meaning_hash": "1ef8b32e2d32b16abae18262c7c379ac7fef4bd22efdaeb4c1e50d6059e00983", "dependency_group": "author:e-9d2b0773441fc68b5bd94a9a", "release_id": "20261107-195223", "markup": [ { "type_code": "WebPage", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Organization", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Person", "allowed": true, "cause": null } ], "exports": [ { "type_code": "json", "url": "/authors/tom-carnduff/index.json", "bytes": null }, { "type_code": "csv", "url": "/authors/tom-carnduff/picks.csv", "bytes": null } ], "modules": { "affiliate": true, "api": true, "compare_yourself": false }, "affiliate_block": { "container": true, "request_url": "/partnery/moi", "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.", "page_category": "author" }, "restrictions": { "name_withdrawn": false, "tracker_number": null, "withdrawn_quotes": [], "removed_at": null, "cause": null, "suspended_records": [], "withdrawal_log_number": 0 }, "page_links": { "methodology": "/methodology/", "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/", "source_coverage": "/coverage/", "corrections_log": "/corrections/", "api": "/api/", "claim": "/claim/" }, "entity": { "id": "e-9d2b0773441fc68b5bd94a9a", "public_name": "Tom Carnduff", "tracker_number": 1487, "status": "active", "inactive_since": null, "verified_creator": false, "observation_period": { "since": "2026-09-28", "until": "2026-10-12" }, "platform_list": [ { "medium": "website", "handle": null, "url": null, "link_confirmed": false, "show": true } ], "comment": null }, "headline_number": { "metric": { "metric_id": "p-e-9d2b0773441fc68b5bd94a9a-roi-market-price-90d-z99", "code_name": "roi_market_price", "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot", "window_kind": "90d", "window_from": "2026-08-09", "window_to": "2026-11-07", "amount": null, "unit": "percent", "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "no pick in this window has been settled", "n_bets": 0, "n_events": 0, "n_void": null, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "ci_method": "not_estimated", "price_source": "market_price", "coverage_percent": null, "breakdown": [], "methodology_version": "2.2", "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "enough_for_ranking": false, "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot" }, "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 0 settled picks across 0 matches", "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, "metrics": [], "history": [], "simulation": { "series_key": null, "series_label": "No level stake placed", "bankroll_hundredths": 1000000, "reserve_hundredths": 0, "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000, "initial_hundredths": 1000000, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "top_up_count": 0, "profit_hundredths": 0, "rewards_off": null, "data_points": [], "top_ups": [], "rule": "Every tracked author starts with 10,000 points and stakes 100 per qualifying pick. This author has 0 settled bets, so the bankroll stands at its starting value." }, "simulations": [], "completeness": { "detected": 146, "recognised": 68, "accepted": 37, "executed": 37, "calculated": 33, "gaps": [ { "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages", "figure": 23 }, { "cause": "not_supported", "figure": 8 } ] }, "record_counts": { "dictionary_version": "1", "statements": 146, "of_them_restored": 146, "not_predictions": { "opinions": 42, "not_about_a_match": 36, "unclassified": 0 }, "predictions": 68, "predictions_restored": 68, "matches": 0, "admitted": 37, "qualifying_picks": 37, "qualifying_picks_restored": 37, "settled_picks": 33, "settled_picks_restored": 33, "series_list": [ { "code_name": "retro_author_price", "derived": false, "is_restored": true, "qualifying_picks": 19, "settled_picks": 15, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 4, "matches": 13, "operations_settled": 15, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "retro-1.0" ], "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price" }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm", "derived": false, "is_restored": true, "qualifying_picks": 22, "settled_picks": 21, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 1, "matches": 20, "operations_settled": 21, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "retro-1.1" ], "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)" } ], "gaps": [ { "code_name": "after_match", "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages", "figure": 23 }, { "code_name": "not_supported", "cause": "not_supported", "figure": 8 } ], "duplicates": 0, "junk": { "service": 12 }, "dictionary_url": "/methodology/#words" }, "evidence_items": [ { "observation_id": "n-a508b34d4329d666b853202b", "url": "/authors/tom-carnduff/picks/5/#pick-n-a508b34d4329d666b853202b", "quote_text": "Over 9.5 corners", "fragment_from": 262, "fragment_to": 278, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/set-piece-focus-in-european-rematch/230401", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Tom Carnduff", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "aa5904e3d03e75f67d1ab9ecf6149507c24111e7dded1d3092fac13834af46c5", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-02-16T10:21:56.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-12T20:37:55.943Z", "executed_at": "2026-10-13T20:02:40.817Z", "statement_class": "unpriced", "status": "too_late", "cause": "counted in the restored-history series", "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": null, "display_name": "Benfica v Real Madrid", "competition_name": "UEFA Champions League", "starts_at": "2026-02-17T20:00:00.000Z", "url": null, "scoreline": "0-1" }, "market_label": "Over/Under 9.5 corners", "outcome_label": "over 9.5", "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": "1.8000", "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)" }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "source_reported_history", "provenance_words": "Source-reported history", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-02-16T10:21:56.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-02-16T10:21:56.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-12T20:37:55.943Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "source_reported_history", "origin_words": "Source-reported history", "added_on": "Added to our record on 12 Oct 2026", "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Over/Under 9.5 corners", "choice": "over 9.5", "author_odds": null, "market_key": "corners_total", "choice_key": "over", "period": "match", "line": "9.5", "subject": "corners", "in_words": "Over/Under 9.5 corners: over 9.5" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "0-1", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Benfica 0-1 Real Madrid." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "a50ca27481b50bdcf1a8ccf6c6c2082670a1f788cc7bce9c952c164bde76edae", "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 9.5 corners", "choice": "over 9.5", "decimal_odds": "1.8000", "odds_role": "closing_odds", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-10-13T20:02:40.817Z", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Tom Carnduff", "publisher": "Sporting Life", "forecaster": "Tom Carnduff", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/set-piece-focus-in-european-rematch/230401", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-c9cce54c70b0e0a730079c32", "url": "/authors/tom-carnduff/picks/5/#pick-n-c9cce54c70b0e0a730079c32", "quote_text": "Over 12.5 corners", "fragment_from": 282, "fragment_to": 299, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/psg-vs-liverpool-tips-action-packed/224078", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Tom Carnduff", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "97ca432919a00572798b154bb1c9097beacc8b18ce42c1de073c68ffe0f1f4dd", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2025-03-03T11:32:59.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-12T20:11:21.055Z", "executed_at": "2026-10-13T19:51:03.980Z", "statement_class": "unpriced", "status": "too_late", "cause": "counted in the restored-history series", "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": null, "display_name": "Paris Saint-Germain v Liverpool", "competition_name": "UEFA Champions League", "starts_at": "2025-03-05T20:00:00.000Z", "url": null, "scoreline": "0-1" }, "market_label": "Over/Under 12.5 corners", "outcome_label": "over 12.5", "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": "3.6000", "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)" }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "win", "simulation_change_hundredths": 26000, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "source_reported_history", "provenance_words": "Source-reported history", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2025-03-03T11:32:59.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2025-03-03T11:32:59.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-12T20:11:21.055Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "source_reported_history", "origin_words": "Source-reported history", "added_on": "Added to our record on 12 Oct 2026", "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Over/Under 12.5 corners", "choice": "over 12.5", "author_odds": null, "market_key": "corners_total", "choice_key": "over", "period": "match", "line": "12.5", "subject": "corners", "in_words": "Over/Under 12.5 corners: over 12.5" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "win", "scoreline": "0-1", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "in_words": "Won: the final score was Paris Saint-Germain 0-1 Liverpool." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "6658170a75e655bf5da6f087517328857836899df2b6e5c297b0e76bf2576fc7", "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 12.5 corners", "choice": "over 12.5", "decimal_odds": "3.6000", "odds_role": "closing_odds", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 26000, "executed_at": "2026-10-13T19:51:03.980Z", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Tom Carnduff", "publisher": "Sporting Life", "forecaster": "Tom Carnduff", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/psg-vs-liverpool-tips-action-packed/224078", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-2034128e5b6a5f0408874891", "url": "/authors/tom-carnduff/picks/5/#pick-n-2034128e5b6a5f0408874891", "quote_text": "Over 10.5 corners", "fragment_from": 241, "fragment_to": 258, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/psg-vs-liverpool-tips-action-packed/224078", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Tom Carnduff", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "97ca432919a00572798b154bb1c9097beacc8b18ce42c1de073c68ffe0f1f4dd", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2025-03-03T11:32:59.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-12T20:11:21.055Z", "executed_at": "2026-10-13T19:51:03.971Z", "statement_class": "unpriced", "status": "too_late", "cause": "counted in the restored-history series", "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": null, "display_name": "Paris Saint-Germain v Liverpool", "competition_name": "UEFA Champions League", "starts_at": "2025-03-05T20:00:00.000Z", "url": null, "scoreline": "0-1" }, "market_label": "Over/Under 10.5 corners", "outcome_label": "over 10.5", "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": "2.1000", "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)" }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "win", "simulation_change_hundredths": 11000, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "source_reported_history", "provenance_words": "Source-reported history", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2025-03-03T11:32:59.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2025-03-03T11:32:59.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-12T20:11:21.055Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "source_reported_history", "origin_words": "Source-reported history", "added_on": "Added to our record on 12 Oct 2026", "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Over/Under 10.5 corners", "choice": "over 10.5", "author_odds": null, "market_key": "corners_total", "choice_key": "over", "period": "match", "line": "10.5", "subject": "corners", "in_words": "Over/Under 10.5 corners: over 10.5" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "win", "scoreline": "0-1", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "in_words": "Won: the final score was Paris Saint-Germain 0-1 Liverpool." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "802c8daa99ed8bb5a248fd9aa0fb2334073c906a0adb194e47359d2a73990d71", "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 10.5 corners", "choice": "over 10.5", "decimal_odds": "2.1000", "odds_role": "closing_odds", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 11000, "executed_at": "2026-10-13T19:51:03.971Z", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Tom Carnduff", "publisher": "Sporting Life", "forecaster": "Tom Carnduff", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/psg-vs-liverpool-tips-action-packed/224078", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-69dfaca2da7a0426925b7971", "url": "/authors/tom-carnduff/picks/5/#pick-n-69dfaca2da7a0426925b7971", "quote_text": "Manchester City to win", "fragment_from": 248, "fragment_to": 270, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/man-city-vs-villa-tips-home-comforts/225073", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Tom Carnduff", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "3b0c111303594713e7371d31192ad357e37ec69e215465dac4a2f6a4de8e5cbc", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2025-04-21T09:17:19.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-12T20:11:06.167Z", "executed_at": "2026-10-13T19:52:12.936Z", "statement_class": "unpriced", "status": "too_late", "cause": "counted in the restored-history series", "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": null, "display_name": "Manchester City v Aston Villa", "competition_name": "Premier League", "starts_at": "2025-04-22T19:00:00.000Z", "url": null, "scoreline": "2-1" }, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "outcome_label": "Manchester City", "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": "1.9150", "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)" }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "win", "simulation_change_hundredths": 9150, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "source_reported_history", "provenance_words": "Source-reported history", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2025-04-21T09:17:19.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2025-04-21T09:17:19.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-12T20:11:06.167Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "source_reported_history", "origin_words": "Source-reported history", "added_on": "Added to our record on 12 Oct 2026", "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Manchester City", "author_odds": null, "market_key": "1x2", "choice_key": "1", "period": "match", 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null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-12-23T08:42:55.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:11:22.470Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": 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"https://web.archive.org/web/20241223164509id_/https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/tom-carnduffs-tips-best-bets-in-premier-league-efl-scottish-premiership-for-boxing-day-december-26/222665", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Tom Carnduff", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "1d04a9ed0af4b01a3ffa4dd83c7f056e746cab31828e1ffedfcee0f9043275bc", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:11:22.470Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "not_supported", "cause": "", "cause_code": "not_supported", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": 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"authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-9802fdb0c2ec95ef5698fb6d", "url": "/authors/tom-carnduff/picks/4/#pick-n-9802fdb0c2ec95ef5698fb6d", "quote_text": "1pt Southampton 14+ fouls committed vs West Ham at 10/3", "fragment_from": 656, "fragment_to": 711, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241223164509id_/https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/tom-carnduffs-tips-best-bets-in-premier-league-efl-scottish-premiership-for-boxing-day-december-26/222665", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Tom Carnduff", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "1d04a9ed0af4b01a3ffa4dd83c7f056e746cab31828e1ffedfcee0f9043275bc", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:11:22.470Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "not_supported", "cause": "", "cause_code": "not_supported", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": 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"https://web.archive.org/web/20240919092905id_/https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/tom-carnduffs-tips-best-bets-in-premier-league-bundesliga-efl-for-september-20-22/220537", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Tom Carnduff", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "941fd80a6b917de46bb2731732ec4fc1cfab4d8f6d3ad9219b250a9e4fe04c26", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:06:40.092Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-09-17T09:06:11.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:06:40.092Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-01ed543ae24ed7a98d7794fd", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-01ed543ae24ed7a98d7794fd", "quote_text": "Two over-coached sides who are terrified of losing will likely cancel each other out and nothing will happen.", "fragment_from": 1693, "fragment_to": 1802, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240919092905id_/https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/tom-carnduffs-tips-best-bets-in-premier-league-bundesliga-efl-for-september-20-22/220537", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Tom Carnduff", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "941fd80a6b917de46bb2731732ec4fc1cfab4d8f6d3ad9219b250a9e4fe04c26", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:06:40.092Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "opinion", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-09-17T09:06:11.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:06:40.092Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-70a1ac58b1f55b7cc31f45af", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-70a1ac58b1f55b7cc31f45af", "quote_text": "The truth of it though is that it's very likely to be a poor game of football.", "fragment_from": 1446, "fragment_to": 1524, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240919092905id_/https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/tom-carnduffs-tips-best-bets-in-premier-league-bundesliga-efl-for-september-20-22/220537", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Tom Carnduff", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "941fd80a6b917de46bb2731732ec4fc1cfab4d8f6d3ad9219b250a9e4fe04c26", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:06:40.092Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "opinion", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-09-17T09:06:11.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:06:40.092Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null } ], "excluded_from_feed": { "ads": 0, "service": 12, "ruleset_version": "3" }, "standing": null, "retro": { "restored_total": 33, "of_them_archived_pre_match": 15, "found_post_match": 0, "of_them_source_reported": 18, "live_count": 0, "date_count": 27, "span_from": "2024-08-17", "span_to": "2026-05-11", "line_text": "restored history: 33, of which pre-match archive 15", "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League, Championship, Champions League, Europa League and League One matches between 17 August 2024 and 11 May 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 33. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 15. Taken from the source’s own published history, published before kick-off by the source’s own date: 18. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 0. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.", "precision": { "n": 33, "share": "0.3939" }, "series_list": [ { "code_name": "retro_author_price", "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price", "n": 14, "roi": "-52.5000", "ci_low": "-100.0000", "ci_high": "37.1429", "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "cause": null }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing", "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price", "n": 0, "roi": null, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "data_status": "unknown", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "cause": "no restored pick with this price" }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm", "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "n": 21, "roi": "22.7143", "ci_low": "-30.5250", "ci_high": "71.8810", "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "cause": null } ], "clv": { "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above" }, "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "leagues": [ "Premier League", "Championship", "Champions League", "Europa League", "League One" ], "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 1 settled restored pick, and the two agree; 32 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged." }, "late": null, "price_vs_market": null, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "sportinglife.com", "url": "https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/set-piece-focus-in-european-rematch/230401" }, "observed_from": "2026-09-28", "observed_to": "2026-10-12", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "restored": true, "headline_kind": "historical_simulation", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 3, "matches": 3, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -12600, "staked_hundredths": 30000, "return_percent": "-42.00", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2024-09-21", "period_to": "2024-11-02", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "short_history": true, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 3 settled archived picks by Tom Carnduff from copies archived before kick-off, across 3 matches between 21 September and 2 November 2024. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 1 of 3 settled archived picks. Of the 68 predictions we hold for Tom Carnduff, 46 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 22 from the source’s own history. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled archived picks", "value": "3", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": null }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "3", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "−126 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "value": "−42.0%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": null } ], "limitations": [ "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included." ], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": null, "archived": { "part": "archived", "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.", "settled_picks": 3, "matches": 3, "match_dates": 3, "period_from": "2024-09-21", "period_to": "2024-11-02", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": -12600, "low": { "date": "2024-10-26", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000, "after_picks": 2 }, "high": { "date": "2024-09-21", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000, "after_picks": 1 }, "line_drawn": false, "steps": [ { "date": "2024-09-21", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000, "n": 1, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2024-10-26", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000, "n": 2, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2024-11-02", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -12600, "n": 3, "picks": 1 } ] } }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record restored 3 settled archived picks by Tom Carnduff from copies archived before kick-off, across 3 matches between 21 September and 2 November 2024. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 1 of 3 settled archived picks. Of the 68 predictions we hold for Tom Carnduff, 46 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 22 from the source’s own history. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/tom-carnduff/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "retro-1.1" }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 68, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 0, "proven_predictions": 46, "proven_checked": 15, "proven_measured": 3, "proven_dates": 11, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 46, "checked": 15, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": { "settled_picks": 3, "void": 0, "matches": 3, "net_points_hundredths": -12600, "staked_hundredths": 30000, "return_percent": "-42.00", "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval", "period_from": "2024-09-21", "period_to": "2024-11-02", "method_version": "retro-1.1" }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "retro_author_price", "picks": 3, "return_main_percent": "-42.00", "return_other_percent": "-38.33", "settled_excluding_void": 3, "net_main_points_hundredths": -12600, "net_other_points_hundredths": -11500, "period_from": "2024-09-21", "period_to": "2024-11-02" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 15, "priced": 3 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 3, "won": 1, "won_percent": "33.3", "implied_percent": "52.9", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Both teams to score", "won": 0, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "51.3" }, { "market": "Match result", "won": 0, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "50.0" }, { "market": "Over/under goals", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "57.5" } ] } }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "source_reported", "title": "Source-reported history", "explanation": "The time and the pick are known only from the source’s own history; it is the basis of the record check and never part of the evidenced total.", "predictions": 22, "checked": 18, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": { "settled_picks": 18, "void": 0, "matches": 17, "net_points_hundredths": 60300, "staked_hundredths": 180000, "return_percent": "33.50", "interval_low": "-21.59", "interval_high": "84.38", "interval_note": null, "period_from": "2025-03-05", "period_to": "2026-05-11", "method_version": "retro-1.1" }, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 18, "priced": 18 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 18, "won": 11, "won_percent": "61.1", "implied_percent": "46.4", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Corners over/under", "won": 3, "picks": 7, "implied_percent": "41.7" }, { "market": "Match result", "won": 4, "picks": 5, "implied_percent": "47.9" }, { "market": "Both teams to score", "won": 2, "picks": 3, "implied_percent": "53.6" }, { "market": "Cards over/under", "won": 1, "picks": 2, "implied_percent": "46.4" }, { "market": "Over/under goals", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "49.8" } ] } } ] }, "live_alongside": null, "headline_record_ids": [ "n-26dd48b390cc5c60fe7b7e14", "n-501cb6194a63f78c98938a59", "n-5b1a367ce39a172338725aba" ], "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 21 September – 2 November 2024 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1", "record_from": "2024-08-17", "record_to": "2026-05-11" }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-3086cb669af3d4b7df6c7934", "url": null, "match": "Millwall v Hull City", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2026-05-11T19:00:00.000Z", "competition": "EFL Championship", "lead_hours": -3697.2, "market_code": "cards_over_under", "author_said": "Over/Under 4.5 cards: over 4.5", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Won", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "0-2", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": 11100, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored", "author_price": null, "settled_price": "2.1100", "published_at": "2026-05-09T23:00:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:10:14.606Z", "origin": "Source-reported history", "record_part": "source_reported", "record_part_words": "Source-reported history", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-0fdb6b09441fd357664a7dc5", "url": null, "match": "Liverpool v Paris Saint-Germain", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2026-04-14T19:00:00.000Z", "competition": "UEFA Champions League", "lead_hours": -4345.2, "market_code": "1x2", "author_said": "1X2, match result: Paris Saint-Germain", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Won", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "0-2", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": 15700, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored", "author_price": null, "settled_price": "2.5700", "published_at": "2026-04-13T10:27:03.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:10:16.965Z", "origin": "Source-reported history", "record_part": "source_reported", "record_part_words": "Source-reported history", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-a11367c0f3dd9061f2485b11", "url": null, "match": "FC Porto v Nottingham Forest", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2026-04-09T19:00:00.000Z", "competition": "UEFA Europa League", "lead_hours": -4465.2, "market_code": "both_teams_score", "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes", "quote": 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"median_hours": null, "min_hours": null, "max_hours": null, "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off." }, "baseline": { "contract_version": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "rule": "recorded-line-1.0", "state": "none", "picks": 0, "settled_picks_all": 0, "excluded": { "market_without_favourite": 0, "no_recorded_line": 0, "favourite_not_settled": 0 }, "staked_hundredths": 0, "author_net_hundredths": 0, "favourite_net_hundredths": 0, "difference_hundredths": 0, "author_return_percent": null, "favourite_return_percent": null, "author_hit_rate": null, "favourite_hit_rate": null, "picked_favourite_share": null, "by_market": [], "return_over_time": [], "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out." }, "pagination": { "per_page": 20, "total": 68, "pages": 5, "page_urls": [ "/authors/tom-carnduff/", "/authors/tom-carnduff/picks/2/", "/authors/tom-carnduff/picks/3/", "/authors/tom-carnduff/picks/4/", "/authors/tom-carnduff/picks/5/" ], "groups": { "settled": 33, "pending": 0, "excluded": 35 }, "continuation": "by_time", "page": 1, "first": 1, "last": 20, "author_url": "/authors/tom-carnduff/", "current": false }, "title_tag": "Tom Carnduff Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources", "calculator": null, "person": { "person_id": "o-9d2b0773441fc68b5bd94a9a", "type_code": "individual", "name_shown": "Tom Carnduff", "main_entity": "e-9d2b0773441fc68b5bd94a9a", "identity": { "status": "not_verified", "is_verified": false, "when": null, "source_list": [] }, "platform_list": [ { "entity_ref": "e-9d2b0773441fc68b5bd94a9a", "medium": "Sporting Life", "channel": "section pages", "domain": "sportinglife.com", "source_info": "sporting-life", "byline": "Tom Carnduff", "url": "/sources/sporting-life/", "summary": { "statements": 146, "predictions": 68, "settled_picks": 3, "headline_kind": "historical_simulation", "return_percent": -42.0, "headline_part": "archived", "period_from": "2026-09-28", "period_to": "2026-10-12" } } ], "previously": [], "trust_tier": "probation" }, "data_revision": { "data_version": "2026-10-16.5", "updated": "2026-10-16", "current_release": "2026-11-07.2", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "price_rule": "reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "sample": { "settled_picks": 3, "matches": 3, "void": 0, "period_from": "2024-09-21", "period_to": "2024-11-02", "composition_hash": "4f20e215db95b2e8b92fa453c00a6ef690cc0d9ae0318d89f8260e0900028862" }, "changes_url": "#changes", "corrections_url": "/corrections/" }, "number_changes": [ { "id": "zc-9dc29d430f07d9c6000f", "at": "2026-10-16T17:26:36.835Z", "data_version": "2026-10-16.5", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-16.4", "url": "/authors/tom-carnduff/", "category": "data_corrected", "category_words": "Data corrected", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.2", "return_percent": "-56.50", "settled_picks": 4, "matches": 4, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "b577e75b436ad11060e51be4074ff34cc668c9333263d6a7e0c4e97515df145a", "text": "−226.00 points on 4 settled picks across 4 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-16.5", "return_percent": "-42.00", "settled_picks": 3, "matches": 3, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "4f20e215db95b2e8b92fa453c00a6ef690cc0d9ae0318d89f8260e0900028862", "text": "−126.00 points on 3 settled picks across 3 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 0, "removed": 1, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-d2ac945e82bb7ce50181" }, { "id": "zc-29df16d493569b42e603", "at": "2026-10-09T12:49:36.723Z", "data_version": "2026-10-09.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "url": "/authors/tom-carnduff/", "category": "method_changed", "category_words": "Method changed", "before": { "data_version": "2026-09-30.1", "return_percent": "-42.81", "settled_picks": 16, "matches": 15, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_author_price", "price_rule": "author's stated odds, restored", "method_version": "retro-1.0", "composition_hash": "c814f027e7ee64a5dd55c1e7dadd17232d13fa364ef2fa252b49ad6089dc7f90", "text": "−42.81% on 16 settled picks across 15 matches · author's stated odds, restored · method retro-1.0" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.2", "return_percent": "-56.50", "settled_picks": 4, "matches": 4, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "b577e75b436ad11060e51be4074ff34cc668c9333263d6a7e0c4e97515df145a", "text": "−226.00 points on 4 settled picks across 4 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, a historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first found after the match no longer enter the headline number. Was: author's stated odds, restored (16 settled picks). Now: historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (4 settled picks).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 0, "removed": 12, "changed": 1 }, "correction_id": "i-32a6f971d2f336167b51" } ], "counts_by_slice": { "portions": [ { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "settled_picks": 3, "total_check": true, "market_list": [ { "code_name": "both_teams_score", "in_words": "Both teams to score", "url": null, "settled_picks": 1, "won": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -10000, "return_percent": "-100.0", "period_from": "2024-10-26", "period_to": "2024-10-26", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "2.00", "odds_from_author": 1, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "1x2", "in_words": "Match result", "url": null, "settled_picks": 1, "won": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -10000, "return_percent": "-100.0", "period_from": "2024-09-21", "period_to": "2024-09-21", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.95", "odds_from_author": 1, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "total", "in_words": "Over/under goals", "url": null, "settled_picks": 1, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 7400, "return_percent": "74.0", "period_from": "2024-11-02", "period_to": "2024-11-02", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.85", "odds_from_author": 1, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 } ], "leagues": [ { "code_name": "EFL Championship", "in_words": "EFL Championship", "url": "/football/competitions/efl-championship/", "settled_picks": 2, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -2600, "return_percent": "-13.0", "period_from": "2024-10-26", "period_to": "2024-11-02", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.93", "odds_from_author": 2, "odds_from_snapshot": 0, "league_markets": [ { "code_name": "both_teams_score", "in_words": "Both teams to score", "settled_picks": 1, "won": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -10000, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2024-10-26", "period_to": "2024-10-26", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "2.00", "odds_from_author": 1, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "total", "in_words": "Over/under goals", "settled_picks": 1, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 7400, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2024-11-02", "period_to": "2024-11-02", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.85", "odds_from_author": 1, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 } ] }, { "code_name": "EFL League One", "in_words": "EFL League One", "url": "/football/competitions/efl-league-one/", "settled_picks": 1, "won": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -10000, "return_percent": "-100.0", "period_from": "2024-09-21", "period_to": "2024-09-21", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.95", "odds_from_author": 1, "odds_from_snapshot": 0, "league_markets": [ { "code_name": "1x2", "in_words": "Match result", "settled_picks": 1, "won": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -10000, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2024-09-21", "period_to": "2024-09-21", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.95", "odds_from_author": 1, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 } ] } ], "best_slice": null } ], "best_slice": null }, "author_card": { "body": "Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 68 predictions · last change 12 October 2026", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/tom-carnduff/", "s": "2026-09-28", "prediction_count": 68, "refreshed_at": "2026-10-12", "html": "Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 68 predictions · last change 12 October 2026" }, "trust": { "tier": "probation", "in_words": "Probation", "settled_count": 15, "days": 239, "weeks": 7, "archive": false, "in_review": false, "own_page": true, "won_count": 2, "first_settled_on": "2024-08-17", "products_in_level": 1, "rule": { "tracked": { "min_settled": 30, "min_days": 30, "min_distinct_weeks": 2, "no_violations": true }, "established": { "min_settled": 100, "min_days": 90 } }, "show": true }, "colleagues": [ { "source_code": "sporting-life", "source_name": "Sporting Life", "source_url": "/sources/sporting-life/", "label": "Also at Sporting Life", "authors_total": 3, "authors": [ { "name": "Jake Osgathorpe", "url": "/authors/jake-osgathorpe/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 24, "return_percent": "29.3", "small_sample": false, "average_odds": "2.58", "odds_from_author": 20, "odds_from_snapshot": 4 }, { "name": "Joe Townsend", "url": "/authors/joe-townsend/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 15, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill", "url": "/authors/jimmy-the-punt-cantrill/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 3, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "2.31", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 3 } ] } ], "author_type": "Pundit", "data_changes": { "added_later": "1 record added on 28 Sep 2026 from archived copies; 18 records added on 30 Sep 2026 from archived copies; 18 records added on 12 Oct 2026 from the source's own history. The current numbers include them; numbers published earlier, including the record before each match, do not change.", "records_corrected": 0, "last_correction_at": "2026-10-16T17:26:36.835Z", "corrections_url": "/corrections/" }, "entity_id": "person:o-9d2b0773441fc68b5bd94a9a", "source_revision": 207, "related": [ { "url": "/cards/e-9d2b0773441fc68b5bd94a9a-bank/", "name": "Bankroll card — Tom Carnduff", "detail": null, "source_group": "cards" }, { "url": "/cards/e-9d2b0773441fc68b5bd94a9a-said-vs-happened/", "name": "Said → happened — Tom Carnduff", "detail": null, "source_group": "cards" } ], "number_sets": [ { "set": "profile.settled", "entity": "e-9d2b0773441fc68b5bd94a9a", "value": 33, "where": "coverage", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.predictions", "entity": "e-9d2b0773441fc68b5bd94a9a", "value": 68, "where": "coverage", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.predictions", "entity": "e-9d2b0773441fc68b5bd94a9a", "value": 68, "where": "picks", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.part.live", "entity": "e-9d2b0773441fc68b5bd94a9a", "value": 0, "where": null, "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.part.archived", "entity": "e-9d2b0773441fc68b5bd94a9a", "value": 3, "where": "origin-archived", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.part.found_after", "entity": "e-9d2b0773441fc68b5bd94a9a", "value": 0, "where": null, "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.part.source_reported", "entity": "e-9d2b0773441fc68b5bd94a9a", "value": 18, "where": null, "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.checked.live", "entity": "e-9d2b0773441fc68b5bd94a9a", "value": 0, "where": null, "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.checked.archived", "entity": "e-9d2b0773441fc68b5bd94a9a", "value": 15, "where": "origin-archived", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.checked", "entity": "e-9d2b0773441fc68b5bd94a9a", "value": 15, "where": "trust-level", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "label": true } ] }