Steffen Wilkens: football tipster record — archive reconstruction

Where Steffen Wilkens publishes

Published under this name on wettbasis.com.

Record card

To link to this record from your site or bio, copy the line below. It states only the facts of this record.

<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/authors/steffen-wilkens/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 9 October 2026 · 297 predictions · last change 16 October 2026</a>

Archived before kick-off · 4 settled archived picks · won 4 of 4

Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.

4 predictions; 4 checked against the final score.

4 settled selections across 4 matches, 16 April – 23 August 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: +396.50 points.

Eligible prices were available for 4 of the 4 selections checked against the result.

Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 4 of 4 decided picks; the prices of the same picks implied 51.5%.

By market: Over/under goals 3 of 3 (prices implied 55.1%); Team goals 1 of 1 (prices implied 40.7%).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Found after kick-off · 7 settled after-match picks · won 6 of 7

First Found after kick-off; the date is the one the source states.

24 predictions; 7 checked against the final score.

7 settled selections across 5 matches, 7 August 2025 – 16 April 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: +512 points.

Eligible prices were available for 7 of the 7 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 6 of 7 decided picks; the prices of the same picks implied 47.8%.

By market: Team goals 2 of 3 (prices implied 37.8%); Both teams to score 2 of 2 (prices implied 54.1%); Over/under goals 2 of 2 (prices implied 56.7%).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Source-reported history · 255 settled source-reported picks · −14.8%

The time and the pick are known only from the source’s own history; it is the basis of the record check and never part of the evidenced total.

269 predictions; 257 checked against the final score.

255 settled selections across 255 matches, 17 July 2025 – 11 October 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −14.8% (95.0% interval −27.5% to −1.8%).

Eligible prices were available for 255 of the 257 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 108 of 255 decided picks (42.4%); the prices of the same picks implied 49.7%.

By market: Over/under goals 43 of 100 (prices implied 50.6%); Team goals 41 of 92 (prices implied 46.9%); Both teams to score 11 of 29 (prices implied 56.9%); Match result 5 of 16 (prices implied 47.9%); Result and total goals 8 of 13 (prices implied 51.5%); Other markets 0 of 5 (prices implied 45.5%).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.

What kind of number is this?

Measured

Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; the time of each pre-match web-archive copy.

Stated

The author’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.

Calculated

Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.

Unknown

Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published.

The four data statuses

What this record covers

We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything Steffen Wilkens has published.

Source we monitor

wettbasis.com

Channels

website

Watched by us

9–16 October 2026

Earlier entries

restored from archives, back to 17 July 2025

Stated price vs market

How the prices this author stated compare with an independent market price of the same selection. Calculated from the picks where both prices are known; a gap can come from market movement or from one bookmaker offering more than the market, so it describes the stated prices, not the reason for them.

Closing market price (restored) — the closing market price of the same selection (restored history). Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5.0% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way. The closing price is the final price before kick-off. The price when the pick was published is unknown for restored history, so this row shows the distance to where the market closed.

Pre-match close: the last market price for the same selection before kick-off. Definition.

Largest gaps: 2.05 against 1.94 (+5.5%)

Author's response

No author's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.

Respond or request a correction

Coverage and exclusions

One set of records: the author’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.

Statements

321

Predictions

297

Qualifying picks

282

Settled picks

268

Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.

Statements that are not predictions: 5 opinions and 19 not about a match.

How this return was calculated

Every settled pick in “Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)” is a stake of 100 points at the last pre-match archive price, a reconstruction at archived prices on picks archived before kick-off only. The net result (+396.50 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 4 settled archived picks; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (400 points), void picks excluded. Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.

Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.

Separate comparison window — last 90 days: the return appears from the first settled pick in this window (method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted

Changes to this record

The headline number above is (reconstruction method 1.1, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only). When it changes, the earlier figure stays here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.

Coverage extended · 13 October 2026

Before

no published headline number

After

+396.50 points on 4 settled picks across 4 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

First headline number for this record: 4 settled picks in the series “reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only”.

Who this is

Last recorded by us

16 October 2026, 22 days before this page's data date

Observed

9 October 2026 — 16 October 2026

Channels

website

Statements other than predictions (22 shown)

• “Reicht Kopenhagen der Minimalaufwand?” — 12 August 2025, 07:15 BST · source
• “Wir sehen hier einen Vorteil auf Seiten der Drachen.” — 16 April 2026, 07:06 BST · source
• “Wie gehen die Tricky Trees mit der Favoritenrolle um?” — 29 January 2026, 06:57 GMT · source
• “Siegt Littler unaufhaltbar weiter?” — 5 February 2026, 06:34 GMT · source
• “Verlängert der amtierende Weltmeister seine Siegesserie?” — 5 February 2026, 06:34 GMT · source

• CFR Cluj vs. Braga, 07.08.2025 – Wettbasis.com Analyse

  7 Aug 2025, 07:23 BST · Source

• FC Basel vs. Viktoria Pilsen, 29.01.2026 – Wettbasis.com Analyse

  29 Jan 2026, 06:58 GMT · Source

• Melde dich jetzt bei unserem Tippspiel an & sichere dir wöchentlich Cash-Preise

  29 Jan 2026, 06:58 GMT · Source

• Hol dir bei Betano mit dem Code BETMAX deine 20€ Freebet ohne Einzahlung

  16 Apr 2026, 07:06 BST · Source

• Gastgeber reicht ein Remis für das Achtelfinale

  29 Jan 2026, 06:57 GMT · Source

• kein anderer Verein in dieser Europa-League-Spielzeit weniger gegnerische Ballkontakte im eigenen Strafraum ermöglicht hat als Nottingham (95).

  29 Jan 2026, 06:57 GMT · Source

• Nur knapp über die Hälfte der gegnerischen Abschlüsse (51,11 Prozent) wurden aus dem Strafraum der Keane-Auswahl abgegeben – Bestwert unter allen EL-Teilnehmern.

  29 Jan 2026, 06:57 GMT · Source

• Dank der fünftbesten Schussverwandlungsquote im laufenden Wettbewerb (14,81 Prozent) ist der Ertrag bis jetzt mehr als ausreichend gewesen.

  29 Jan 2026, 06:57 GMT · Source

• Ferencvaros hingegen bestritt allein neun europäische Auswärtsspiele in England – verlor davon sechs Partien (1S, 2U).

  29 Jan 2026, 06:57 GMT · Source

• Zum ersten Mal in ihren Vereinsgeschichten treten die beiden Klubs auf europäischer Bühne gegeneinander an.

  29 Jan 2026, 06:57 GMT · Source

• Wir sprechen beim ungarischen Verein von einer Truppe, die keines der sieben vorangegangenen EL-Spiele verloren hat (4S, 3U).

  29 Jan 2026, 06:57 GMT · Source

• Aus den Top-24 können die Gastgeber aber zumindest nicht mehr gedrängt werden.

  29 Jan 2026, 06:57 GMT · Source

• Erzwingt Nottingham (im Bild: Morgan Gibbs-White) gegen Ferencvaros Budapest den Heimsieg?

  29 Jan 2026, 06:57 GMT · Source

• Einsatz 4/10

  29 Jan 2026, 06:57 GMT · Source

• Meiste 180er: Luke Littler: 1.50 @bet365 Unentschieden: 6.00 @bet365 Gian van Veen: 3,50 @bet365

  5 Feb 2026, 06:34 GMT · Source

• Sieg-Quoten Luke Littler: 1.39 @Winamax Gian van Veen: 3.10 @Oddset

  5 Feb 2026, 06:34 GMT · Source

• Hol dir bei Winamax bis zu 100€ in Freebets & mit dem exklusiven Wettbasis-Code 10€ extra

  5 Feb 2026, 06:34 GMT · Source

The full list is in the JSON and CSV downloads of this page.

The same data, machine-readable

• Page data (JSON)
• Recorded picks (CSV)

From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.

Share cards of this record (2)

• Bankroll card — Steffen Wilkens
• Said → happened — Steffen Wilkens

Check us

• How we count
• Right of reply and complaints
• What we collect
• Corrections log
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Calculations for the displayed picks

Record definitions and related evidence

• Recorded picks and results
• Matches
• How this return was calculated
• 15