Paul Kulhavy: football tipster record

Where Paul Kulhavy publishes

Published under this name on goonersguide.substack.com.

Record card

To link to this record from your site or bio, copy the line below. It states only the facts of this record.

<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/authors/paul-kulhavy/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 86 predictions · last change 6 November 2026</a>

Recorded before kick-off: supporting evidence

Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.

How the market price is set

Prices implied by market

By market: Match result 3 of 10 (prices implied 32.5% Small sample (10)); Double chance 1 of 4 (1 W / 3 L, average odds 3.83) Small sample (4).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Found after kick-off · 8 settled after-match picks · won 4 of 8

First Found after kick-off; the date is the one the source states.

55 predictions; 8 checked against the final score.

8 settled selections across 8 matches, 2 May – 19 September 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: +266.50 points.

Eligible prices were available for 8 of the 8 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 4 of 8 decided picks; the prices of the same picks implied 41.6%.

By market: Match result 3 of 10 (prices implied 32.5% Small sample (10)); Double chance 1 of 4 (1 W / 3 L, average odds 3.83) Small sample (4).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.

What kind of number is this?

Measured

Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; our pre-match market snapshot of each settled pick.

Stated

The author’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.

Calculated

Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.

Unknown

Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published.

The four data statuses

What this record covers

We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything Paul Kulhavy has published.

Source we monitor

goonersguide.substack.com

Channels

website

Watched by us

28 September – 6 November 2026

Earlier entries

restored from archives, back to 2 May 2026

Without a match page

14 predictions

Stated price vs market

How the prices this author stated compare with an independent market price of the same selection. Calculated from the picks where both prices are known; a gap can come from market movement or from one bookmaker offering more than the market, so it describes the stated prices, not the reason for them.

Our market price when we first recorded the pick — our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off); Closing market price (restored) — the closing market price of the same selection (restored history). Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5.0% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way. The closing price is the final price before kick-off. The price when the pick was published is unknown for restored history, so this row shows the distance to where the market closed.

Pre-match close: the last market price for the same selection before kick-off. Definition.

Largest gaps: 6.00 against 5.54 (+8.2%) · 5.90 against 5.47 (+7.9%) · 3.15 against 3.75 (−16.0%) · 3.80 against 3.60 (+5.6%)

Author's response

No author's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.

Respond or request a correction

Coverage and exclusions

One set of records: the author’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.

Statements

206

Predictions

86

Qualifying picks

22

Settled picks

22

Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.

Statements that are not predictions: 53 opinions and 67 not about a match.

How this return was calculated

Every settled pick in “Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price” is a stake of 100 points at our recorded market price, a pre-match snapshot of the same selection. The net result (−79 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 14 settled live picks; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (1,400 points), void picks excluded. Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.

Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.

Separate comparison window — last 90 days: −5.6% on 14 live picks settled in this window · 14 matches · 10 October – 7 November 2026 (calculated, method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted

Changes to this record

Earlier figures stay here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.

New results · 7 November 2026

Before

+1.6% on 13 settled picks across 13 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (13)

After

−5.6% on 14 settled picks across 14 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (14)

1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous record update.

New results · 7 November 2026

Before

+10.1% on 12 settled picks across 12 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (12)

After

+1.6% on 13 settled picks across 13 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (13)

1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous record update.

Coverage extended · 1 November 2026

Before

+20.1% on 11 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (11)

After

+10.1% on 12 settled picks across 12 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (12)

Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

New results · 31 October 2026

Before

+521.00 points on 8 settled picks across 8 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

After

+20.1% on 11 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2 Small sample (11)

3 new settled picks from matches played after the previous record update.

New results · 27 October 2026

Before

+611.00 points on 5 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

After

+521.00 points on 8 settled picks across 8 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

3 new settled picks from matches played after the previous record update.

New results · 25 October 2026

Before

+711.00 points on 4 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

After

+611.00 points on 5 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous record update.

Coverage extended · 24 October 2026

Before

+597.00 points on 3 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

After

+711.00 points on 4 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

Data corrected · 19 October 2026

Before

+497.00 points on 4 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

After

+597.00 points on 3 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.

Coverage extended · 11 October 2026

Before

+597.00 points on 3 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

After

+497.00 points on 4 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous record update (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).

New results · 11 October 2026

Before

+347.00 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

After

+597.00 points on 3 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous record update.

New results · 10 October 2026

Before

no published headline number

After

+347.00 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2

First headline number for this record: 2 settled picks in the series “independent odds snapshot”.

Who this is

Last recorded by us

6 November 2026, 1 day before this page's data date

Observed

28 September 2026 — 6 November 2026

Channels

website

Statements other than predictions (37 shown)

• “Nothing spectacular in the way of certainty, of course.” — 6 November 2026, 02:41 GMT · source
• “Last week was one to forget, with all six selections going down.” — 6 November 2026, 02:41 GMT · source
• “As always, these are value bets, not guarantees. Some will lose, and possibly some will lose in spectacular fashion.” — 30 October 2026, 01:57 GMT · source
• “Last week was a small loser returning 4.40 on 5 bets, with only the two Serie A winners paying out.” — 30 October 2026, 01:57 GMT · source
• “I can’t recommend them to you at this stage.” — 23 October 2026, 05:25 BST · source
• “Aston Villa are around 5.25 at home to Manchester City, Tottenham are 4.75 away to Chelsea” — 23 October 2026, 05:25 BST · source
• “please don’t go piling into a massive accumulator. That’s not what we’re doing here.” — 16 October 2026, 03:36 BST · source
• “If making money this way wasn’t your thing last week, you probably should unsubscribe” — 16 October 2026, 03:36 BST · source
• “The away win is an alternative for those wanting a bigger price.” — 10 October 2026, 05:01 BST · source
• “Wolves may be better than the market thinks” — 18 April 2026, 05:53 BST · source
• “Everton vs Liverpool looks level again” — 18 April 2026, 05:53 BST · source
• “Mainz get another chance” — 18 April 2026, 05:53 BST · source
• “and a solid Serie A angle” — 25 April 2026, 03:49 BST · source
• “Atletico overpriced at home” — 25 April 2026, 03:49 BST · source
• “Spurs under pressure again” — 25 April 2026, 03:49 BST · source
• “Stick to the price. Not the story around it.” — 2 May 2026, 03:27 BST · source
• “These are probability plays, not certainties.” — 2 May 2026, 03:27 BST · source
• “As always, even strong favourites miss occasionally.” — 2 May 2026, 03:27 BST · source
• “Likely Result: Tight, tactical, probably level” — 2 May 2026, 03:27 BST · source
• “Likely Result: Freiburg edge a tight home game” — 2 May 2026, 03:27 BST · source

• Bookmakers for this week’s bets Need somewhere to place your bets?

  23 Oct 2026, 05:25 BST · Source

• Como and AS Roma played out a 0-0 draw in a game that was more open than I’d expected.

  16 Oct 2026, 03:36 BST · Source

• Augsburg scored after just six seconds when a Manuel Neuer klanger gifted them a goal

  16 Oct 2026, 03:36 BST · Source

• So what's YOUR best of the weeeknd guys?

  2 May 2026, 03:27 BST · Source

• Saturday's value bet draw lands at 4.20 thanks to a late goal helping out this time

  2 May 2026, 03:27 BST · Source

• More analysis and all match previews here:

  2 May 2026, 03:27 BST · Source

• Likely Result: Lazio control it and find a way

  2 May 2026, 03:27 BST · Source

• Full previews and all 32 match predictions are up here:

  2 May 2026, 03:27 BST · Source

• Two value bet wins from three days (in the 3rd game we took a draw - and the Monchengaldback won 4-0).

  16 May 2026, 04:17 BST · Source

• Update after Saturday's games in the Germany Bundesliga ... both must win teams lost.

  16 May 2026, 04:17 BST · Source

• Likely Result: Udinese expose the pressure

  16 May 2026, 04:17 BST · Source

• Likely Result: Mainz frustrate and counter well

  16 May 2026, 04:17 BST · Source

• Likely Result: Nervy and level late on

  16 May 2026, 04:17 BST · Source

• Likely Result: Dortmund finish the season strongly

  16 May 2026, 04:17 BST · Source

• Combined probability says that acca only lands around 28.7% of the time.

  16 May 2026, 04:17 BST · Source

• And please, for the love of mathematics, do not pile them into one giant accumulator and convince yourself it is “safe money”.

  16 May 2026, 04:17 BST · Source

• Chelsea could still upset them of course.

  16 May 2026, 04:17 BST · Source

The full list is in the JSON and CSV downloads of this page.

The same data, machine-readable

• Page data (JSON)
• Recorded picks (CSV)

From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.

Share cards of this record (3)

• Bankroll card — Paul Kulhavy
• A month following Paul Kulhavy
• Said → happened — Paul Kulhavy

For the author of this record (1)

• Your record on Forecast Record: Paul Kulhavy

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• Recorded before kick-off — definition
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