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 "heading": "Paul Kulhavy: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "Verified record: 14 settled picks by Paul Kulhavy recorded before kick-off across 14 matches, 10 Oct 2026 – 7 Nov 2026: −5.6% at our recorded market prices.",
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  "body": "Forecast Record recorded 14 settled live picks by Paul Kulhavy before kick-off across 14 matches between 10 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −5.6% on the total staked. Of the 86 predictions we hold for Paul Kulhavy, 72 are linked to matches: 17 were recorded by us before kick-off and 55 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
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  "data": "2026-11-07",
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 "data_date": "2026-11-07T18:18:04.535Z",
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  "public_name": "Paul Kulhavy",
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   "amount": "-5.6429",
   "unit": "percent",
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   "n_bets": 14,
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   "ci_low": "-84.7143",
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   "coverage_percent": "100.00",
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  ],
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  "rule": "When the balance falls below 100 points and no bets are open, 10000 points are added; the remaining balance is kept. While bets are open we wait for settlement.",
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   "observation_id": "n-435f827ffdaa233f6a43c8a5",
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   "quote_text": "Last week was one to forget, with all six selections going down.",
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  {
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   "quote_text": "TAKE: Osasuna to win at 3.60 or better.",
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   "url": "/authors/paul-kulhavy/picks/5/#pick-n-3e6813ada9834c633dd947d4",
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    "competition_name": "Bundesliga",
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    "url": "/football/matches/fc-augsburg-vs-fc-bayern-munchen-2026-10-10/",
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   "market_label": "Double chance",
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   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
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   },
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   "detected_at": "2026-10-10T04:42:46.808Z",
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   "statement_class": "priced",
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   "cause": "",
   "cause_code": "disputed_reading",
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    "display_name": "Chelsea — AFC Bournemouth",
    "competition_name": "Premier League",
    "starts_at": "2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z",
    "url": "/football/matches/chelsea-vs-afc-bournemouth-2026-10-10/",
    "scoreline": "5-1",
    "condition": "finished"
   },
   "market_label": "Asian handicap 0.5",
   "outcome_label": "AFC Bournemouth +0.5",
   "odds_set": {
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   },
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   "author_claim": {
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   "quote_text": "So what's YOUR best of the weeeknd guys?",
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   "quote_text": "As always, even strong favourites miss occasionally.",
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 ],
 "excluded_from_feed": {
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 "standing": null,
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 8,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 0,
  "found_post_match": 8,
  "of_them_source_reported": 0,
  "live_count": 14,
  "date_count": 8,
  "span_from": "2026-05-02",
  "span_to": "2026-09-19",
  "line_text": "restored history: 8, of which pre-match archive 0",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League matches between 2 May 2026 and 19 September 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 8. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 0. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 8. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
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   "share": "0.5"
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  "series_list": [
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    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 8,
    "roi": "37.3750",
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    "data_status": "calculated",
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    "roi": "-7.4929",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 8,
    "roi": "33.3125",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Premier League"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 8 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged."
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)",
    "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick",
    "compared": 14,
    "above": 3,
    "above_share_percent": "21.4",
    "below": 0,
    "within": 11,
    "median_difference_percent": "2.6",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated"
   },
   {
    "basis": "closing",
    "basis_words": "the closing market price of the same selection (restored history)",
    "basis_short": "Closing market price (restored)",
    "compared": 7,
    "above": 1,
    "above_share_percent": "14.3",
    "below": 1,
    "within": 5,
    "median_difference_percent": "-0.9",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated",
    "sentence": "The author's stated price against the closing price of the same selection: median −0.9% over 7 picks. The price available to followers is the market price, shown separately."
   }
  ],
  "examples": [
   {
    "url": "/authors/paul-kulhavy/picks/5/#pick-n-dc6bd570c7d33062859798f0",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "6.00",
    "market": "5.54",
    "difference_percent": "8.2"
   },
   {
    "url": "/authors/paul-kulhavy/picks/5/#pick-n-3e6813ada9834c633dd947d4",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "5.90",
    "market": "5.47",
    "difference_percent": "7.9"
   },
   {
    "url": "/authors/paul-kulhavy/picks/2/#pick-n-5632140c7930fe52cc0ef12f",
    "basis": "closing",
    "stated": "3.15",
    "market": "3.75",
    "difference_percent": "-16.0"
   },
   {
    "url": "/authors/paul-kulhavy/picks/2/#pick-n-dc19e9db9ad54f3854f0f0a1",
    "basis": "closing",
    "stated": "3.80",
    "market": "3.60",
    "difference_percent": "5.6"
   }
  ],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "goonersguide.substack.com",
   "url": "https://goonersguide.substack.com/p/goonersguide-weekly-five-value-bets-5ed"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-09-28",
  "observed_to": "2026-11-06",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price",
  "restored": false,
  "headline_kind": "live_snapshot",
  "headline_part": "live",
  "settled_picks": 14,
  "matches": 14,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -7900,
  "staked_hundredths": 140000,
  "return_percent": "-5.64",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2026-10-10",
  "period_to": "2026-11-07",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "2.2",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 14 settled live picks by Paul Kulhavy before kick-off across 14 matches between 10 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −5.6% on the total staked. Of the 86 predictions we hold for Paul Kulhavy, 72 are linked to matches: 17 were recorded by us before kick-off and 55 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled live picks",
    "value": "14",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "14",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−79 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "value": "−5.6%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": "95% interval −84.7% to +87.8%"
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "Most of this history was found after the matches. Of the 8 selections in this historical price series, 0 have a pre-match archive copy and 8 were first found after the match."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [
   {
    "date": "2026-10-10",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 44700,
    "n": 1
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-11",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 59700,
    "n": 3
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-23",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 71100,
    "n": 4
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-25",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 52100,
    "n": 8
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-31",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 22100,
    "n": 11
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-01",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 12100,
    "n": 12
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-06",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 2100,
    "n": 13
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-07",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7900,
    "n": 14
   }
  ],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": {
    "part": "live",
    "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.",
    "settled_picks": 14,
    "matches": 14,
    "match_dates": 8,
    "period_from": "2026-10-10",
    "period_to": "2026-11-07",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -7900,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-11-07",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7900,
     "after_picks": 14
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-10-23",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 71100,
     "after_picks": 4
    },
    "line_drawn": true,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2026-10-10",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 44700,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-11",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 59700,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-23",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 71100,
      "n": 4,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-25",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 52100,
      "n": 8,
      "picks": 4
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-31",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 22100,
      "n": 11,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 12100,
      "n": 12,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-06",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 2100,
      "n": 13,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-07",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7900,
      "n": 14,
      "picks": 1
     }
    ]
   },
   "archived": null
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record recorded 14 settled live picks by Paul Kulhavy before kick-off across 14 matches between 10 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −5.6% on the total staked. Of the 86 predictions we hold for Paul Kulhavy, 72 are linked to matches: 17 were recorded by us before kick-off and 55 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/paul-kulhavy/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "2.2"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 86,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 14,
   "proven_predictions": 17,
   "proven_checked": 17,
   "proven_measured": 14,
   "proven_dates": 8,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 17,
     "checked": 17,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 14,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 14,
      "net_points_hundredths": -7900,
      "staked_hundredths": 140000,
      "return_percent": "-5.64",
      "interval_low": "-84.71",
      "interval_high": "87.79",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2026-10-10",
      "period_to": "2026-11-07",
      "method_version": "2.2",
      "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0",
      "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.2",
      "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 0
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "author_price",
       "picks": 14,
       "return_main_percent": "-5.64",
       "return_other_percent": "-1.57",
       "settled_excluding_void": 14,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -7900,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -2200,
       "period_from": "2026-10-10",
       "period_to": "2026-11-07"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price",
       "series_code": "closing_live",
       "picks": 13,
       "return_main_percent": "1.62",
       "return_other_percent": "3.46",
       "settled_excluding_void": 13,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 2100,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 4500,
       "period_from": "2026-10-10",
       "period_to": "2026-11-06"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 17,
      "priced": 14
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 14,
      "won": 4,
      "won_percent": "28.6",
      "implied_percent": "32.0",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 3,
        "picks": 10,
        "implied_percent": "32.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 4,
        "implied_percent": "30.7"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 55,
     "checked": 8,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 8,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 8,
      "net_points_hundredths": 26650,
      "staked_hundredths": 80000,
      "return_percent": "33.31",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2026-05-02",
      "period_to": "2026-09-19",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 8,
       "return_main_percent": "33.31",
       "return_other_percent": "37.38",
       "settled_excluding_void": 8,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 26650,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 29900,
       "period_from": "2026-05-02",
       "period_to": "2026-09-19"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price, aggregator",
       "series_code": "retro_market_closing",
       "picks": 7,
       "return_main_percent": "-8.57",
       "return_other_percent": "-7.49",
       "settled_excluding_void": 7,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -6000,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -5245,
       "period_from": "2026-05-02",
       "period_to": "2026-09-19"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 8,
      "priced": 8
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 8,
      "won": 4,
      "won_percent": "50.0",
      "implied_percent": "41.6",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 3,
        "picks": 7,
        "implied_percent": "44.2"
       },
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "23.4"
       }
      ]
     }
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-1c072a207c1b3d8b178232f9",
   "n-31fb46e761322d4e05a4414a",
   "n-3e6813ada9834c633dd947d4",
   "n-4f3e3be7fdfaf2f555687870",
   "n-5667fc50992b6b8fdbf500bd",
   "n-62977812bb907c7b32ef53c3",
   "n-65219590cbc6e49424657972",
   "n-78e4a8d6db7d25e7dd411a38",
   "n-930e9d2accbafd645e1db677",
   "n-a3a358c6ca475c06301729a4",
   "n-a3f54ad58e172664aebd8d61",
   "n-bdaa19f29062a37f969c4293",
   "n-cb6bac059cc39a8bca48ee00",
   "n-dc6bd570c7d33062859798f0"
  ],
  "interval_low": "-84.71",
  "interval_high": "87.79",
  "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 10 October – 7 November 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2",
  "record_from": "2026-05-02",
  "record_to": "2026-11-07"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-78e4a8d6db7d25e7dd411a38",
   "url": "/authors/paul-kulhavy/picks/6/#pick-n-78e4a8d6db7d25e7dd411a38",
   "match": "Fulham v Newcastle United",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/fulham-vs-newcastle-united-2026-11-07/",
   "kickoff": "2026-11-07T15:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": 35.6,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: Newcastle United at 3.45",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "1-1",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "market_price",
   "series_short": "odds snapshot",
   "author_price": "3.45",
   "settled_price": "3.4000",
   "published_at": "2026-11-06T02:41:55.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-11-06T03:26:02.686Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "record_part": "live",
   "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off",
   "in_headline": true,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": {
    "outcome": "1",
    "price": "2.0450",
    "result": "Lost",
    "points_hundredths": -10000,
    "picked_favourite": false
   },
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-78e4a8d6db7d25e7dd411a38",
    "quote_text": "TAKE: Newcastle United to win at 3.45 or better.",
    "fragment_from": 3385,
    "fragment_to": 3433,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "substack",
     "url": "https://goonersguide.substack.com/p/goonersguide-weekly-five-value-bets-5ed",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Paul Kulhavy",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "6d4ef6097373149ebf3917fbb2a2014b16f11527d731d29a23de4a143b102b14",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": "2026-11-06T02:41:55.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-11-06T03:26:02.686Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-06T03:28:49.822Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "recognised",
    "cause": null,
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
     "event_id": "s-5400ee392a3b",
     "display_name": "Fulham — Newcastle United",
     "competition_name": "Premier League",
     "starts_at": "2026-11-07T15:00:00.000Z",
     "url": "/football/matches/fulham-vs-newcastle-united-2026-11-07/",
     "scoreline": "1-1",
     "condition": "finished"
    },
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "outcome_label": "Newcastle United",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": "3.45",
     "our_snapshot": "3.4000",
     "our_snapshot_at": "2026-11-06T03:23:27.352Z",
     "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot",
     "closing": null,
     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "loss",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "recorded_pre_match",
    "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": "2026-11-06T02:41:55.000Z",
     "fragment_basis": "element",
     "source_page_at": "2026-11-06T02:41:55.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-11-06T03:26:02.686Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
    "origin_detail": null,
    "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Newcastle United",
     "author_odds": "3.45",
     "market_key": "1x2",
     "choice_key": "2",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "1X2, match result: Newcastle United at 3.45"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "loss",
     "scoreline": "1-1",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Fulham 1-1 Newcastle United."
    },
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