Mark Lawrenson: football tipster record — archive reconstruction

Record overview

• 115 from the pre-match archive · 2025
• 62 Found after kick-off

Record details and history below

Where Mark Lawrenson publishes

Identity checked on 12 October 2026 against public sources: news.paddypower.com, en.wikipedia.org.

Record card

To link to this record from your site or bio, copy the line below. It states only the facts of this record.

<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/authors/mark-lawrenson/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 29 September 2026 · 264 predictions · last change 30 September 2026</a>

Archived before kick-off · 3 settled archived picks · won 2 of 3

Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.

128 predictions; 115 checked against the final score.

3 settled selections across 3 matches, 26–27 April 2025.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −63 points.

Eligible prices were available for 3 of the 115 selections checked against the result.

Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 2 of 3 decided picks; the prices of the same picks implied 73.4%.

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Score forecasts without a betting market price

Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.

13 of 112 score forecasts named the exact score (11.6%).

The result implied by the named score was right in 57 of 111 matches; the market favourite was right in 67 of the same 111 matches.

A pre-match market favourite is known for 111 of 112 forecasts; the comparison uses only those.

The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).

The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).

Found after kick-off · 6 settled after-match picks · won 3 of 6

First Found after kick-off; the date is the one the source states.

136 predictions; 62 checked against the final score.

6 settled selections across 6 matches, 25 February – 27 April 2025.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −134 points.

Eligible prices were available for 6 of the 62 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 3 of 6 decided picks; the prices of the same picks implied 49.3%.

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.

Score forecasts without a betting market price

Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.

3 of 56 score forecasts named the exact score (5.4%).

The result implied by the named score was right in 25 of 56 forecasts; the market favourite was right in 35 of the same 56 forecasts.

Some matches carry more than one of these forecasts: 56 forecasts on 54 matches.

The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).

The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).

These forecasts were Found after kick-off; when they were made depends on the date the source gives.

Record details and history

Record details

• Most recorded: Correct score · 112 matches

  Correct score 13/112 (112 matches); Match result (1X2) 2/3 (3 matches)

  Most recorded bet type: the rule

• Exact scores · 13/112

  Exact scores: the rule

• Longest price: correct at 4.20 · 15 Mar 2025

  AFC Bournemouth v Brentford · Away win at 4.20 (archive closing price) · from the predicted score: Correct score: AFC Bournemouth 1-2 Brentford

  Pre-match close: the last market price for the same selection before kick-off. Definition.

  Correct at a long price: the rule

• Draw calls · 5/18

  Draw calls: the rule

• Away calls · 24/36

  Away calls: the rule

• Non-favourite calls · 8/34

  Non-favourite calls: the rule

• Most picked team: Leicester City · 8/13

  Most picked team: the rule

• Result calls: 58 correct · 58.2 implied by prices

  111 result calls with a pre-match price for the named outcome (margin included).

  Correct against prices implied: the rule

Each title is a fact about past picks, by published rules. How titles work

What kind of number is this?

Measured

Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; the time of each pre-match web-archive copy.

Stated

The author’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.

Calculated

Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.

Unknown

Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published.

The four data statuses

What this record covers

We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything Mark Lawrenson has published.

Source we monitor

news.paddypower.com

Channels

website

Watched by us

29–30 September 2026

Earlier entries

restored from archives, back to 25 February 2025

Author's response

No author's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.

Respond or request a correction

Coverage and exclusions

One set of records: the author’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.

Statements

283

Predictions

264

Qualifying picks

15

Settled picks

9

Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.

Statements that are not predictions: 4 opinions and 15 not about a match.

How this return was calculated

Every settled pick in “Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)” is a stake of 100 points at the last pre-match archive price, a reconstruction at archived prices on picks archived before kick-off only. The net result (−63 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 3 settled archived picks; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (300 points), void picks excluded. Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.

Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.

Separate comparison window — last 90 days: the return appears from the first settled pick in this window (method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted

Changes to this record

The headline number above is (reconstruction method 1.1, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only). When it changes, the earlier figure stays here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.

Data corrected · 19 October 2026

Before

+55.00 points on 5 settled picks across 5 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

−63.00 points on 3 settled picks across 3 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 2 picks left the headline sample.

Method changed · 9 October 2026

Before

−15.3% on 15 settled picks across 14 matches · closing market price, restored · Reconstruction method 1.0 Small sample (15)

After

+55.00 points on 5 settled picks across 5 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first Found after kick-off no longer enter the headline number. Was: closing market price, restored (15 settled picks). Now: reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (5 settled picks).

Who this is

Last recorded by us

30 September 2026, 38 days before this page's data date

Observed

29 September 2026 — 30 September 2026

Channels

website

Statements other than predictions (3 shown)

• “it’s always a toss of a coin with these two.” — 16 February 2025, 14:05 GMT · source

• They’ll be without two of their best players as well with Abdoulaye Doucoure suspended and Iliman Ndiaye injured.

  16 Feb 2025, 14:05 GMT · Source

• With Kai Havertz out Arsenal now have no fit recognised strikers.

  16 Feb 2025, 14:05 GMT · Source

The full list is in the JSON and CSV downloads of this page.

The same data, machine-readable

• Page data (JSON)
• Recorded picks (CSV)

From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.

Share cards of this record (1)

• Bankroll card — Mark Lawrenson

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• Right of reply and complaints
• What we collect
• Corrections log
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Calculations for the displayed picks

Record definitions and related evidence

• Recorded picks and results
• Matches
• How this return was calculated
• Archived before kick-off — definition
• 14