Marcel Niesner: football tipster record — archive reconstruction

Where Marcel Niesner publishes

Published under this name on wettbasis.com.

Record card

To link to this record from your site or bio, copy the line below. It states only the facts of this record.

<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/authors/marcel-niesner/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 9 October 2026 · 630 predictions · last change 16 October 2026</a>

Archived before kick-off · 3 settled archived picks · won 2 of 3

Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.

5 predictions; 5 checked against the final score.

3 settled selections across 3 matches, 1 March 2025 – 16 April 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: +47 points.

Eligible prices were available for 3 of the 5 selections checked against the result.

Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 2 of 3 decided picks; the prices of the same picks implied 56.5%.

By market: Match result 1 of 2 (prices implied 52.4%); Over/under goals 1 of 1 (prices implied 64.5%).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Found after kick-off · 27 settled after-match picks · −29.4%

First Found after kick-off; the date is the one the source states.

376 predictions; 30 checked against the final score.

27 settled selections across 16 matches, 1 August 2024 – 6 August 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −29.4% (95.0% interval −60.8% to +5.8%).

Eligible prices were available for 27 of the 30 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 10 of 27 decided picks (37.0%); the prices of the same picks implied 54.1%.

By market: Over/under goals 7 of 16 (prices implied 56.8%); Asian handicap 1 of 4 (prices implied 51.6%); Double chance 1 of 2 (prices implied 51.5%); Match result 0 of 2 (prices implied 44.7%); Both teams to score 0 of 1 (prices implied 62.9%); Other markets 1 of 2 (prices implied 44.7%).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Score forecasts without a betting market price

1 score forecast is waiting for a final score.

Source-reported history · 203 settled source-reported picks · −1.2%

The time and the pick are known only from the source’s own history; it is the basis of the record check and never part of the evidenced total.

249 predictions; 227 checked against the final score.

203 settled selections across 203 matches, 26 February 2025 – 10 October 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −1.2% (95.0% interval −14.3% to +11.6%).

Eligible prices were available for 203 of the 227 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 111 of 201 decided picks (55.2%); the prices of the same picks implied 55.9%.

By market: Over/under goals 49 of 77 (prices implied 58.2%); Match result 35 of 59 (prices implied 53.7%); Both teams to score 10 of 33 (prices implied 58.5%); Double chance 9 of 18 (prices implied 49.4%); Result and total goals 7 of 11 (prices implied 55.7%); Other markets 1 of 3 (prices implied 52.6%).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own. 2 picks left out: void, or half won or half lost on a quarter-goal line.

An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.

What kind of number is this?

Measured

Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; the time of each pre-match web-archive copy.

Stated

The author’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.

Calculated

Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.

Unknown

Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published.

The four data statuses

What this record covers

We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything Marcel Niesner has published.

Source we monitor

wettbasis.com

Channels

website

Watched by us

9–16 October 2026

Earlier entries

restored from archives, back to 1 August 2024

Stated price vs market

How the prices this author stated compare with an independent market price of the same selection. Calculated from the picks where both prices are known; a gap can come from market movement or from one bookmaker offering more than the market, so it describes the stated prices, not the reason for them.

Closing market price (restored) — the closing market price of the same selection (restored history). Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5.0% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way. The closing price is the final price before kick-off. The price when the pick was published is unknown for restored history, so this row shows the distance to where the market closed.

Pre-match close: the last market price for the same selection before kick-off. Definition.

Author's response

No author's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.

Respond or request a correction

Coverage and exclusions

One set of records: the author’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.

Statements

1,774

Predictions

630

Qualifying picks

321

Settled picks

262

Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.

Statements that are not predictions: 180 opinions and 964 not about a match.

How this return was calculated

Every settled pick in “Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)” is a stake of 100 points at the last pre-match archive price, a reconstruction at archived prices on picks archived before kick-off only. The net result (+47 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 3 settled archived picks; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (300 points), void picks excluded. Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.

Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.

Separate comparison window — last 90 days: the return appears from the first settled pick in this window (method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted

Changes to this record

The headline number above is (reconstruction method 1.1, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only). When it changes, the earlier figure stays here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.

Coverage extended · 13 October 2026

Before

no published headline number

After

+47.00 points on 3 settled picks across 3 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

First headline number for this record: 3 settled picks in the series “reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only”.

Who this is

Last recorded by us

16 October 2026, 22 days before this page's data date

Observed

9 October 2026 — 16 October 2026

Channels

website

Statements other than predictions (58 shown)

• “Obwohl ich einen Dreier des Gastgebers erwarte, wage ich daher vor dem Spiel VfB Stuttgart gegen Young Boys die Prognose, dass der deutsche Erstligist in die Playoffs muss.” — 29 January 2026, 06:57 GMT · source
• “wurde im Umfeld des VfB Stuttgart vermutet, dass das Heimspiel am zweiten Spieltag gegen Sparta Prag richtungsweisenden Charakter haben könnte.” — 16 October 2026, 04:13 BST · source
• “Klingelt es wieder auf beiden Seiten?” — 12 March 2026, 07:06 GMT · source
• “Legt der VfB Stuttgart zuhause erfolgreich vor?” — 12 March 2026, 07:06 GMT · source
• “Ich bin jedoch kein Freund von einer Unentschieden-Wette” — 30 January 2025, 05:37 GMT · source

• zumal ihr derzeit eine 25€ NEO.bet Freiwette ohne Einzahlung abstauben könnt

  29 Jan 2026, 06:57 GMT · Source

• Nach vielen Jahren des eigenen leistungsorientierten Kickens verschob sich meine Leidenschaft in Richtung

  · Source

• Slovan Bratislava vs. Manchester City, 01.10.2024 – Wettbasis.com Analyse

  · Source

• verweisen zudem auf die neue Beidfüßig-Folge zum CL-Dienstag, in der auch Wettbasis-Expertin Turid Knaak alle neun Matches getippt hat.

  · Source

• Sparta Prag hat die letzten 7 CL-Auswärtsspiele allesamt verloren

  · Source

• In allen 5 BL-Spielen der Stuttgarter fielen 2+ Tore in der ersten HZ

  · Source

• Statistik Highlights für VfB Stuttgart gegen Sparta Prag

  · Source

• Auch übrigens mit der Intertops Gratiswette ohne Einzahlung.

  · Source

• erst zum zweiten Mal in der Geschichte der Champions League gewann ein Team mit unter 30% Ballbesitz mit drei Toren Differenz.

  · Source

• mit fünf Siegen sowie einem Remis gegen passable Gegner wie Malmö, Shamrock Rovers oder den FCSB blieben die Tschechen in allen sechs CL-Qualifikationspartien ungeschlagen.

  · Source

• Video: In gewohnt launiger Atmosphäre sprechen Carsten Fuß und Marcel Niesner über die CL-Spiele

  · Source

• lohnt es sich, einen Blick auf die Gratiswetten ohne Einzahlung zu werfen.

  · Source

• Undav könnte übrigens der zweite VfB-Profi nach Kevin Kuranyi 2003/04 werden

  · Source

• Besonders eindrucksvoll war der 5:1-Erfolg im bis dato letzten BL-Heimspiel gegen Borussia Dortmund

  · Source

• In den letzten 14 Bundesligapartien vor heimischer Kulisse blieb der amtierende Vizemeister ohne Niederlage.

  · Source

• Nach der erwartbaren und dennoch unglücklichen 1:3-Niederlage bei Real Madrid

  · Source

• Freebets & Sportwetten Specials für Stuttgart vs. Sparta Prag

  · Source

• In der EL-Ligaphase schoss der VfB die meisten Heimtore und gewann zudem alle 4 Heimspiele

  12 Mar 2026, 07:06 GMT · Source

• Porto konnte von den letzten 21 K.o.-Auswärtsspielen im Europapokal nur 1 gewinnen (1-6-14)

  12 Mar 2026, 07:06 GMT · Source

• Der VfB Stuttgart verlor in dieser Saison erst 2 Heimspiele

  12 Mar 2026, 07:06 GMT · Source

• Vor allem die Verletzung von Top-Torjäger Samu hat die Drachen doch mehr aus dem Konzept gebracht

  12 Mar 2026, 07:06 GMT · Source

• Lediglich drei der jüngsten sieben Pflichtspiele hat die Farioli-Elf gewonnen

  12 Mar 2026, 07:06 GMT · Source

• Größere Relevanz auf das bevorstehende Duell und für die VfB Stuttgart vs. Porto Wettquoten auf dem 1X2-Markt hat das Head-to-Head allerdings nicht.

  12 Mar 2026, 07:06 GMT · Source

• Zum ersten Mal stehen sich der VfB Stuttgart und der FC Porto in einem offiziellen Pflichtspiel auf europäischer Ebene gegenüber.

  12 Mar 2026, 07:06 GMT · Source

• Neben dem 100€ Interwetten Einzahlungsbonus steht euch als Wettbasis-Leser außerdem noch die 10€ Exklusiv-Freiwette von Interwetten zur Verfügung!

  12 Mar 2026, 07:06 GMT · Source

• Winamax Gratiswetten für eure Tipps zu verwenden!

  12 Mar 2026, 07:06 GMT · Source

• Wettquoten Stand: 09.03.2026 14:51

  12 Mar 2026, 07:06 GMT · Source

• Hol dir bei Winamax bis zu 100€ in Freebets & mit dem exklusiven Wettbasis-Code 10€ extra

  12 Mar 2026, 07:06 GMT · Source

• Beide Teams treffen JA: 1.63 @Bet365

  30 Jan 2025, 05:37 GMT · Source

• Unter 2,5 Tore: 1.76 @Bet365

  30 Jan 2025, 05:37 GMT · Source

• Über 2,5 Tore: 1.96 @Bet365

  30 Jan 2025, 05:37 GMT · Source

• Sieg PSG: 2.75 @Merkur Bets

  30 Jan 2025, 05:37 GMT · Source

• Unentschieden: 2.70 @Bet365

  30 Jan 2025, 05:37 GMT · Source

• Sieg VfB Stuttgart: 3.60 @NEO.bet

  30 Jan 2025, 05:37 GMT · Source

• Erstmals unter Luis Enrique könnte Paris 3 CL-Matches in Serie gewinnen

  30 Jan 2025, 05:37 GMT · Source

• PSG hat seit 2017/18 nicht mehr das letzte CL-Spiel einer Vorrunde verloren

  30 Jan 2025, 05:37 GMT · Source

• Der VfB verlor indes nur eines der letzten vier internationalen Heimspiele gegen französische Teams.

  30 Jan 2025, 05:37 GMT · Source

• Paris verlor acht von insgesamt 13 CL-Auswärtsspielen gegen deutsche Vereine

  30 Jan 2025, 05:37 GMT · Source

• Im Pokalwettbewerb sowie im Super Cup wurden bis dato ebenfalls alle Pflichtaufgaben erfüllt.

  30 Jan 2025, 05:37 GMT · Source

• Exakt das droht aber am Mittwochabend, denn im Falle einer Niederlage in der MHPArena müssten auch die Pariser auf Schützenhilfe auf den anderen Plätzen hoffen.

  30 Jan 2025, 05:37 GMT · Source

• Problem ist nur, dass der VfB in sechs der vergangenen neun Ligamatches stets das erste Tor der Begegnung kassierte.

  30 Jan 2025, 05:37 GMT · Source

• In Mainz lieferte der zuvor mit vier Pflichtspielsiegen ins Kalenderjahr 2025 gestartete Vizemeister eine blutleere Vorstellung ab und verlor verdient mit 0:2.

  30 Jan 2025, 05:37 GMT · Source

• Das Mindestquoten-Kriterium für die Umsetzung des Betway Bonus ist damit allerdings noch nicht erfüllt.

  30 Jan 2025, 05:37 GMT · Source

• Freebets & Sportwetten Specials für VfB Stuttgart vs. PSG

  30 Jan 2025, 05:37 GMT · Source

• Marcel Niesner

  · Source

• NEIN: 1.69 @Bet365

  · Source

• JA: 2.00 @Bet365

  · Source

• Unter 2,5 Tore: 2.50 @Bet365

  · Source

• Über 2,5 Tore: 1.47 @Bet365

  · Source

• Trabzonspor – Ruzomberok – Wettquoten * & weitere interessante Wetten im Überblick:

  · Source

• 1 76% X 15% 2 9%

  · Source

• Quoten-Wahrscheinlichkeiten für Sieg Trabzonspor / Unentschieden / Sieg Ruzomberok:

  · Source

• Sieg Ruzomberok: 10.00 @Oddset

  · Source

The full list is in the JSON and CSV downloads of this page.

The same data, machine-readable

• Page data (JSON)
• Recorded picks (CSV)

From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.

Share cards of this record (2)

• Bankroll card — Marcel Niesner
• Said → happened — Marcel Niesner

Check us

• How we count
• Right of reply and complaints
• What we collect
• Corrections log
• Data and API

Calculations for the displayed picks

Record definitions and related evidence

• Recorded picks and results
• Matches
• How this return was calculated
• 32