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 "heading": "Marcel Niesner: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "3 settled picks by Marcel Niesner archived before kick-off across 3 matches, 1 Mar 2025 – 16 Apr 2026: won 2 of 3, reconstructed at archived prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record restored 3 settled archived picks by Marcel Niesner from copies archived before kick-off, across 3 matches between 1 March 2025 and 16 April 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 2 of 3 settled archived picks. Of the 630 predictions we hold for Marcel Niesner, 5 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive, 249 from the source’s own history and 376 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "key_number": "3",
  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
  "brand": "Forecast Record"
 },
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  "of_them_archived": 5
 },
 "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
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 "exports": [
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 ],
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 },
 "affiliate_block": {
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  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
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 },
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 "entity": {
  "id": "e-b832253b722962f4be645c74",
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  "observation_period": {
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  },
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    "medium": "website",
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 },
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   "unit": "percent",
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "no pick in this window has been settled",
   "n_bets": 0,
   "n_events": 0,
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   "ci_high": null,
   "ci_method": "not_estimated",
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  "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 0 settled picks across 0 matches",
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 },
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 "history": [],
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  "top_ups": [],
  "rule": "Every tracked author starts with 10,000 points and stakes 100 per qualifying pick. This author has 0 settled bets, so the bankroll stands at its starting value."
 },
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 "completeness": {
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    "figure": 196
   },
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 },
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   {
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 "evidence_items": [
  {
   "observation_id": "n-21160f82d59efb8c77b8be2a",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-21160f82d59efb8c77b8be2a",
   "quote_text": "zumal ihr derzeit eine 25€ NEO.bet Freiwette ohne Einzahlung abstauben könnt",
   "fragment_from": 7089,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "display_name": null,
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   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-705199c5dcf8ea573747e665",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-705199c5dcf8ea573747e665",
   "quote_text": "Obwohl ich einen Dreier des Gastgebers erwarte, wage ich daher vor dem Spiel VfB Stuttgart gegen Young Boys die Prognose, dass der deutsche Erstligist in die Playoffs muss.",
   "fragment_from": 3236,
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   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-young-boys-tipp-prognose-quoten-29-01-2026-europa-league",
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   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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  },
  {
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   "quote_text": "Stuttgart trifft in beiden HZ\n\nmittel\n\n1.85 bei Interwetten",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "cause_code": "disputed_reading",
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    "display_name": "VfB Stuttgart v BSC Young Boys",
    "competition_name": "UEFA Europa League",
    "starts_at": "2026-01-29T20:00:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": null
   },
   "market_label": "Team goals over/under 0.5",
   "outcome_label": "VfB Stuttgart over 0.5",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "1.85",
    "our_snapshot": null,
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    "closing": "1.0200",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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    "choice": "VfB Stuttgart over 0.5",
    "author_odds": "1.85",
    "market_key": "team_total",
    "choice_key": "1-over",
    "period": "match",
    "line": "0.5",
    "subject": "goals_total",
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   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "unknown",
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "awaiting a final score for this restored pick",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "Pending: awaiting a final score for this restored pick."
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     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Team goals over/under 0.5",
     "choice": "VfB Stuttgart over 0.5",
     "decimal_odds": "1.85",
     "odds_role": "author_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "skipped",
     "status_text": "Not executed: ",
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     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:28:03.803Z",
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     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Team goals over/under 0.5",
     "choice": "VfB Stuttgart over 0.5",
     "decimal_odds": "1.0200",
     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "skipped",
     "status_text": "Not executed: ",
     "result": "unknown",
     "result_words": "Pending",
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     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:28:20.767Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
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   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
   "authorship": {
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    "publisher": "wettbasis.com",
    "forecaster": "Marcel Niesner",
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    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
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    "material_url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-young-boys-tipp-prognose-quoten-29-01-2026-europa-league",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
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  },
  {
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   "quote_text": "Stuttgart gewinnt zu 0\n\nmittel\n\n2.32 bei NEO.bet",
   "fragment_from": 3538,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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   "cause_code": "not_supported",
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   "odds_set": {
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
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    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:22.424Z",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-63501d9aaa0bc62fa58d9bc5",
   "url": "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/33/#pick-n-63501d9aaa0bc62fa58d9bc5",
   "quote_text": "Unser Tipp\n\nVfB Stuttgart (-1,5)\n\nBet-at-home\n\n1.68",
   "fragment_from": 498,
   "fragment_to": 549,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-young-boys-tipp-prognose-quoten-29-01-2026-europa-league",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "45fe8ee0764950bc54d3275d8e7b7e35d450c56efc75905dea4f958b7c847df1",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2026-01-29T06:57:39.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:22.424Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:24:54.661Z",
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": {
    "event_id": null,
    "display_name": "VfB Stuttgart v BSC Young Boys",
    "competition_name": "UEFA Europa League",
    "starts_at": "2026-01-29T20:00:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "3-2"
   },
   "market_label": "Asian handicap -1.5",
   "outcome_label": "VfB Stuttgart -1.5",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "1.68",
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": "1.7200",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "loss",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": "ours",
   "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2026-01-29T06:57:39.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2026-01-29T06:57:39.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:22.424Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "Asian handicap -1.5",
    "choice": "VfB Stuttgart -1.5",
    "author_odds": "1.68",
    "market_key": "handicap_asian",
    "choice_key": "1",
    "period": "match",
    "line": "-1.5",
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "Asian handicap -1.5: VfB Stuttgart -1.5 at 1.68"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "loss",
    "scoreline": "3-2",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "in_words": "Lost: the final score was VfB Stuttgart 3-2 BSC Young Boys."
   },
   "settlements": [
    {
     "operation_id": "d889f28ab44b8283477dbfbcaf4a31f0f449ba91fd7b137a66fdf81904284a92",
     "series_key": "retro_author_price",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Asian handicap -1.5",
     "choice": "VfB Stuttgart -1.5",
     "decimal_odds": "1.68",
     "odds_role": "author_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "loss",
     "result_words": "Lost",
     "change_hundredths": -10000,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:24:54.632Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    },
    {
     "operation_id": "988929e0a1600e9cc94c3ede4f8ad4f29f9e0b8cdf0e6bda70b1920fe5e829b1",
     "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Asian handicap -1.5",
     "choice": "VfB Stuttgart -1.5",
     "decimal_odds": "1.7200",
     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "loss",
     "result_words": "Lost",
     "change_hundredths": -10000,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:24:54.661Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Marcel Niesner",
    "publisher": "wettbasis.com",
    "forecaster": "Marcel Niesner",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-young-boys-tipp-prognose-quoten-29-01-2026-europa-league",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
    "verdict_line": null
   },
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-e11af397d959ba79d97a282f",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-e11af397d959ba79d97a282f",
   "quote_text": "Nach vielen Jahren des eigenen leistungsorientierten Kickens verschob sich meine Leidenschaft in Richtung",
   "fragment_from": 11595,
   "fragment_to": 11700,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sparta-prag-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-10-2024-champions-league",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "40a8eca95b80e83673c06430f351c6f04a7c06fbf92346c3699da56bbdc65da3",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-02T04:14:54.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-918f747053b0686cf3fed358",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-918f747053b0686cf3fed358",
   "quote_text": "Slovan Bratislava vs. Manchester City, 01.10.2024 – Wettbasis.com Analyse",
   "fragment_from": 10908,
   "fragment_to": 10981,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sparta-prag-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-10-2024-champions-league",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "40a8eca95b80e83673c06430f351c6f04a7c06fbf92346c3699da56bbdc65da3",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-02T04:14:54.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-83b7911826536777d8a87766",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-83b7911826536777d8a87766",
   "quote_text": "verweisen zudem auf die neue Beidfüßig-Folge zum CL-Dienstag, in der auch Wettbasis-Expertin Turid Knaak alle neun Matches getippt hat.",
   "fragment_from": 10715,
   "fragment_to": 10850,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sparta-prag-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-10-2024-champions-league",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "40a8eca95b80e83673c06430f351c6f04a7c06fbf92346c3699da56bbdc65da3",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-02T04:14:54.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-0639f4d0d5365706a84330c1",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-0639f4d0d5365706a84330c1",
   "quote_text": "Sparta Prag hat die letzten 7 CL-Auswärtsspiele allesamt verloren",
   "fragment_from": 10064,
   "fragment_to": 10129,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sparta-prag-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-10-2024-champions-league",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "40a8eca95b80e83673c06430f351c6f04a7c06fbf92346c3699da56bbdc65da3",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
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    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-02T04:14:54.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-03c62ab60be7e77b0c691013",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-03c62ab60be7e77b0c691013",
   "quote_text": "In allen 5 BL-Spielen der Stuttgarter fielen 2+ Tore in der ersten HZ",
   "fragment_from": 9993,
   "fragment_to": 10062,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sparta-prag-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-10-2024-champions-league",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "40a8eca95b80e83673c06430f351c6f04a7c06fbf92346c3699da56bbdc65da3",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-02T04:14:54.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-9827e77417a52095f27a5502",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-9827e77417a52095f27a5502",
   "quote_text": "Statistik Highlights für VfB Stuttgart gegen Sparta Prag",
   "fragment_from": 8937,
   "fragment_to": 8993,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sparta-prag-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-10-2024-champions-league",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
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    "bundle_id": "40a8eca95b80e83673c06430f351c6f04a7c06fbf92346c3699da56bbdc65da3",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
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   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
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   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-02T04:14:54.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-49438ca653ee80d14774ca56",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-49438ca653ee80d14774ca56",
   "quote_text": "Auch übrigens mit der Intertops Gratiswette ohne Einzahlung.",
   "fragment_from": 8142,
   "fragment_to": 8202,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sparta-prag-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-10-2024-champions-league",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
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    "bundle_id": "40a8eca95b80e83673c06430f351c6f04a7c06fbf92346c3699da56bbdc65da3",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
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   },
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   "withdrawn": false,
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   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-02T04:14:54.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
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    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-77f9fb3e449164c1721fbb79",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-77f9fb3e449164c1721fbb79",
   "quote_text": "erst zum zweiten Mal in der Geschichte der Champions League gewann ein Team mit unter 30% Ballbesitz mit drei Toren Differenz.",
   "fragment_from": 7663,
   "fragment_to": 7789,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sparta-prag-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-10-2024-champions-league",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
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    "bundle_id": "40a8eca95b80e83673c06430f351c6f04a7c06fbf92346c3699da56bbdc65da3",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
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   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-02T04:14:54.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-3464d7f89de35a5320a7fbb7",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-3464d7f89de35a5320a7fbb7",
   "quote_text": "mit fünf Siegen sowie einem Remis gegen passable Gegner wie Malmö, Shamrock Rovers oder den FCSB blieben die Tschechen in allen sechs CL-Qualifikationspartien ungeschlagen.",
   "fragment_from": 7071,
   "fragment_to": 7243,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sparta-prag-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-10-2024-champions-league",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
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    "bundle_id": "40a8eca95b80e83673c06430f351c6f04a7c06fbf92346c3699da56bbdc65da3",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   "odds_set": {
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    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
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   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-02T04:14:54.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-f04382a0f4773d211f28b5bc",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-f04382a0f4773d211f28b5bc",
   "quote_text": "Video: In gewohnt launiger Atmosphäre sprechen Carsten Fuß und Marcel Niesner über die CL-Spiele",
   "fragment_from": 6082,
   "fragment_to": 6178,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sparta-prag-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-10-2024-champions-league",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "40a8eca95b80e83673c06430f351c6f04a7c06fbf92346c3699da56bbdc65da3",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
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   "odds_set": {
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    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
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   "executed_by": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-02T04:14:54.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-49ba69aacfb4c9630a3bd7a9",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-49ba69aacfb4c9630a3bd7a9",
   "quote_text": "lohnt es sich, einen Blick auf die Gratiswetten ohne Einzahlung zu werfen.",
   "fragment_from": 5427,
   "fragment_to": 5501,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sparta-prag-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-10-2024-champions-league",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
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    "bundle_id": "40a8eca95b80e83673c06430f351c6f04a7c06fbf92346c3699da56bbdc65da3",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
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   "odds_set": {
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    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-02T04:14:54.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-86c43645a0416492e5c4aea0",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-86c43645a0416492e5c4aea0",
   "quote_text": "Undav könnte übrigens der zweite VfB-Profi nach Kevin Kuranyi 2003/04 werden",
   "fragment_from": 4837,
   "fragment_to": 4913,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sparta-prag-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-10-2024-champions-league",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
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    "bundle_id": "40a8eca95b80e83673c06430f351c6f04a7c06fbf92346c3699da56bbdc65da3",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
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   "odds_set": {
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    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
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   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-02T04:14:54.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-a37887b807c9622ef87c6bfe",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-a37887b807c9622ef87c6bfe",
   "quote_text": "Besonders eindrucksvoll war der 5:1-Erfolg im bis dato letzten BL-Heimspiel gegen Borussia Dortmund",
   "fragment_from": 4100,
   "fragment_to": 4199,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sparta-prag-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-10-2024-champions-league",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "40a8eca95b80e83673c06430f351c6f04a7c06fbf92346c3699da56bbdc65da3",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
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   "market_label": null,
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   "odds_set": {
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    "our_snapshot_at": null,
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    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-02T04:14:54.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-946da4da72084e1c3c089b79",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-946da4da72084e1c3c089b79",
   "quote_text": "In den letzten 14 Bundesligapartien vor heimischer Kulisse blieb der amtierende Vizemeister ohne Niederlage.",
   "fragment_from": 3907,
   "fragment_to": 4015,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sparta-prag-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-10-2024-champions-league",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
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    "media_from_ms": null,
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   },
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   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "no",
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    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
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     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
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   "observation_id": "n-298ee8311219879dff2ba9c8",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-298ee8311219879dff2ba9c8",
   "quote_text": "wurde im Umfeld des VfB Stuttgart vermutet, dass das Heimspiel am zweiten Spieltag gegen Sparta Prag richtungsweisenden Charakter haben könnte.",
   "fragment_from": 3295,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sparta-prag-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-10-2024-champions-league",
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   "statement_class": "opinion",
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   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
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    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
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   "settlements": [],
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   "observation_id": "n-db0bc6df1a573e78e3b27d01",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-db0bc6df1a573e78e3b27d01",
   "quote_text": "Nach der erwartbaren und dennoch unglücklichen 1:3-Niederlage bei Real Madrid",
   "fragment_from": 3439,
   "fragment_to": 3516,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sparta-prag-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-10-2024-champions-league",
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    "material_removed": false
   },
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   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
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    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
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    "methodology_version": "2.2",
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   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
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   "observation_id": "n-fd8dfa85d862886a47e48bbc",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-fd8dfa85d862886a47e48bbc",
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   "fragment_from": 2192,
   "fragment_to": 2253,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sparta-prag-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-10-2024-champions-league",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
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    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
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   },
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   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-02T04:14:54.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-7a958d8598461cca4d4d9427",
   "url": "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/33/#pick-n-7a958d8598461cca4d4d9427",
   "quote_text": "Mindestens zwei Treffer in den ersten 45 Minuten könnten ein passender Pick sein",
   "fragment_from": 5138,
   "fragment_to": 5218,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sparta-prag-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-10-2024-champions-league",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
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    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
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   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "unpriced",
   "status": "too_late",
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   "cause_code": "too_late",
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   "odds_set": {
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   },
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   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-02T04:14:54.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
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    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-e88907ce3989601293691c6a",
   "url": "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/33/#pick-n-e88907ce3989601293691c6a",
   "quote_text": "Gegen einen qualitativ doch klar unterlegenen Gast aus Prag erwarten wir daher einen souveränen Dreier.",
   "fragment_from": 9839,
   "fragment_to": 9942,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sparta-prag-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-10-2024-champions-league",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
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    "bundle_id": "40a8eca95b80e83673c06430f351c6f04a7c06fbf92346c3699da56bbdc65da3",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "unpriced",
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   "cause_code": "too_late",
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   "odds_set": {
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-02T04:14:54.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-4386fd306a057395cd425354",
   "url": "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/33/#pick-n-4386fd306a057395cd425354",
   "quote_text": "Undav trifft & VfB führt zur Halbzeit\n\n3.50",
   "fragment_from": 2035,
   "fragment_to": 2078,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sparta-prag-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-10-2024-champions-league",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
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    "bundle_id": "40a8eca95b80e83673c06430f351c6f04a7c06fbf92346c3699da56bbdc65da3",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "not_supported",
   "cause": "",
   "cause_code": "not_supported",
   "event": null,
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   "odds_set": {
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    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "executed_by": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-02T04:14:54.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-311e4102cb9375dd5bae18f8",
   "url": "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/33/#pick-n-311e4102cb9375dd5bae18f8",
   "quote_text": "1X & Tor in beiden HZ\n\n1.60",
   "fragment_from": 1990,
   "fragment_to": 2017,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sparta-prag-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-10-2024-champions-league",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
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    "bundle_id": "40a8eca95b80e83673c06430f351c6f04a7c06fbf92346c3699da56bbdc65da3",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "not_supported",
   "cause": "",
   "cause_code": "not_supported",
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
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    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-02T04:14:54.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:19.942Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
   "authorship": null,
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   "url": "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/33/#pick-n-0a017706b03e5b4d456ffd7d",
   "quote_text": "Sieg Stuttgart & BTS\n\n2.55",
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   "fragment_to": 1973,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-sparta-prag-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-10-2024-champions-league",
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    "fragment_basis": "no",
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     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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  },
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   "url": "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/33/#pick-n-ad70b4d35058d4f94c2da121",
   "quote_text": "geht unser VfB Stuttgart vs. Sparta Prag Tipp in Richtung einer ersten Halbzeit mit mindestens zwei Treffern. In der Betway App wird für das Über 1.5 (1. HZ) eine 2.10 angeboten.",
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   "source_info": {
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    ],
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   },
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  },
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   "observation_id": "n-7f7310536a4ba1b1d4501996",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-7f7310536a4ba1b1d4501996",
   "quote_text": "Klingelt es wieder auf beiden Seiten?",
   "fragment_from": 8396,
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   },
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   },
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  },
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   "observation_id": "n-349060b0fcc8a2e48a6d1ebe",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-349060b0fcc8a2e48a6d1ebe",
   "quote_text": "In der EL-Ligaphase schoss der VfB die meisten Heimtore und gewann zudem alle 4 Heimspiele",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "settlements": [],
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-54b9ed9a075680e599e39629",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-54b9ed9a075680e599e39629",
   "quote_text": "Porto konnte von den letzten 21 K.o.-Auswärtsspielen im Europapokal nur 1 gewinnen (1-6-14)",
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   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-porto-tipp-prognose-quoten-12-03-2026-europa-league",
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    "source_page_at": "2026-03-12T07:06:55.000Z",
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
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    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-5f9cfcf8240d0b1824a402de",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-5f9cfcf8240d0b1824a402de",
   "quote_text": "Der VfB Stuttgart verlor in dieser Saison erst 2 Heimspiele",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-porto-tipp-prognose-quoten-12-03-2026-europa-league",
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   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
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    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-2201aab2158e434211188c14",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-2201aab2158e434211188c14",
   "quote_text": "Vor allem die Verletzung von Top-Torjäger Samu hat die Drachen doch mehr aus dem Konzept gebracht",
   "fragment_from": 7408,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "added_on": null,
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   "authorship": null,
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  },
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   "observation_id": "n-164167ff0b506b93706f264b",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-164167ff0b506b93706f264b",
   "quote_text": "Lediglich drei der jüngsten sieben Pflichtspiele hat die Farioli-Elf gewonnen",
   "fragment_from": 7236,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2025-01-30T05:37:41.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2025-01-30T05:37:41.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:17.569Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-3ce7c9307b5c8b178b997908",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-3ce7c9307b5c8b178b997908",
   "quote_text": "Marcel Niesner",
   "fragment_from": 11746,
   "fragment_to": 11760,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/trabzonspor-vs-ruzomberok-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-08-2024-europa-league-quali",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
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    "bundle_id": "8667c7d12b3d1959cb4f24adc001f8e09dc7bf7a710d93dca7b312ff1241c653",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:57.909Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
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   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-01T05:27:27.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:57.909Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-0fb9754d91ab00ff46e3c23b",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-0fb9754d91ab00ff46e3c23b",
   "quote_text": "NEIN: 1.69 @Bet365",
   "fragment_from": 11665,
   "fragment_to": 11683,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/trabzonspor-vs-ruzomberok-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-08-2024-europa-league-quali",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
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    "bundle_id": "8667c7d12b3d1959cb4f24adc001f8e09dc7bf7a710d93dca7b312ff1241c653",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:57.909Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
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   "odds_set": {
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   },
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-01T05:27:27.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:57.909Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-4f1043d5be797ab97c082ff7",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-4f1043d5be797ab97c082ff7",
   "quote_text": "JA: 2.00 @Bet365",
   "fragment_from": 11647,
   "fragment_to": 11663,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/trabzonspor-vs-ruzomberok-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-08-2024-europa-league-quali",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
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    "bundle_id": "8667c7d12b3d1959cb4f24adc001f8e09dc7bf7a710d93dca7b312ff1241c653",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:57.909Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   "odds_set": {
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-01T05:27:27.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:57.909Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-2ae4ddd80005927c7ffae075",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-2ae4ddd80005927c7ffae075",
   "quote_text": "Unter 2,5 Tore: 2.50 @Bet365",
   "fragment_from": 11596,
   "fragment_to": 11624,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/trabzonspor-vs-ruzomberok-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-08-2024-europa-league-quali",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
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    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:57.909Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-01T05:27:27.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:57.909Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-bd79e6812cfa0610467d7973",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-bd79e6812cfa0610467d7973",
   "quote_text": "Über 2,5 Tore: 1.47 @Bet365",
   "fragment_from": 11567,
   "fragment_to": 11594,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/trabzonspor-vs-ruzomberok-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-08-2024-europa-league-quali",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
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    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:57.909Z",
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   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-01T05:27:27.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:57.909Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-e65735ebd92635681b3c78ed",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-e65735ebd92635681b3c78ed",
   "quote_text": "Trabzonspor – Ruzomberok – Wettquoten * & weitere interessante Wetten im Überblick:",
   "fragment_from": 11459,
   "fragment_to": 11542,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/trabzonspor-vs-ruzomberok-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-08-2024-europa-league-quali",
    "display_name": null,
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    "bundle_id": "8667c7d12b3d1959cb4f24adc001f8e09dc7bf7a710d93dca7b312ff1241c653",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:57.909Z",
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   "odds_set": {
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   },
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-01T05:27:27.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:57.909Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-65e2acef43240dc48ec9920d",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-65e2acef43240dc48ec9920d",
   "quote_text": "1\n\n76%\n\nX\n\n15%\n\n2\n\n9%",
   "fragment_from": 11436,
   "fragment_to": 11457,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/trabzonspor-vs-ruzomberok-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-08-2024-europa-league-quali",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
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    "bundle_id": "8667c7d12b3d1959cb4f24adc001f8e09dc7bf7a710d93dca7b312ff1241c653",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:57.909Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   "odds_set": {
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-01T05:27:27.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:57.909Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-8fc7977cc141eeb7dceb699f",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-8fc7977cc141eeb7dceb699f",
   "quote_text": "Quoten-Wahrscheinlichkeiten für Sieg Trabzonspor / Unentschieden / Sieg Ruzomberok:",
   "fragment_from": 11351,
   "fragment_to": 11434,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/trabzonspor-vs-ruzomberok-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-08-2024-europa-league-quali",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
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    "bundle_id": "8667c7d12b3d1959cb4f24adc001f8e09dc7bf7a710d93dca7b312ff1241c653",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:57.909Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
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   "cause_code": null,
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   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-01T05:27:27.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:57.909Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-dab87299b53381c55eb5ad9a",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-dab87299b53381c55eb5ad9a",
   "quote_text": "Sieg Ruzomberok: 10.00 @Oddset",
   "fragment_from": 11319,
   "fragment_to": 11349,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/trabzonspor-vs-ruzomberok-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-08-2024-europa-league-quali",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "8667c7d12b3d1959cb4f24adc001f8e09dc7bf7a710d93dca7b312ff1241c653",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:57.909Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-01T05:27:27.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:57.909Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "excluded_from_feed": {
  "ads": 47,
  "service": 0,
  "ruleset_version": "3"
 },
 "standing": null,
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 262,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 5,
  "found_post_match": 30,
  "of_them_source_reported": 227,
  "live_count": 0,
  "date_count": 188,
  "span_from": "2024-08-01",
  "span_to": "2026-10-10",
  "line_text": "restored history: 262, of which pre-match archive 5",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League, Championship, League Cup, Champions League, Europa League, Conference League, UEFA Super Cup, Brasileiro Série A, Copa Libertadores, Bundesliga, LaLiga, Ligue 1, Serie A and Süper Lig matches between 1 August 2024 and 10 October 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 262. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 5. Taken from the source’s own published history, published before kick-off by the source’s own date: 227. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 30. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 260,
   "share": "0.5231"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 251,
    "roi": "-3.4861",
    "ci_low": "-14.3745",
    "ci_high": "8.1294",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "n": 1,
    "roi": "80.1300",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 232,
    "roi": "-4.2974",
    "ci_low": "-16.3634",
    "ci_high": "7.2321",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Premier League",
   "Championship",
   "League Cup",
   "Champions League",
   "Europa League",
   "Conference League",
   "UEFA Super Cup",
   "Brasileiro Série A",
   "Copa Libertadores",
   "Bundesliga",
   "LaLiga",
   "Ligue 1",
   "Serie A",
   "Süper Lig"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 1 settled restored pick, and the two agree; 261 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged."
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
    "basis": "closing",
    "basis_words": "the closing market price of the same selection (restored history)",
    "basis_short": "Closing market price (restored)",
    "compared": 1,
    "above": 0,
    "above_share_percent": "0.0",
    "below": 0,
    "within": 1,
    "median_difference_percent": "0.5",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated",
    "sentence": "The author's stated price against the closing price of the same selection: median +0.5% over 1 picks. The price available to followers is the market price, shown separately."
   }
  ],
  "examples": [],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "wettbasis.com",
   "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-young-boys-tipp-prognose-quoten-29-01-2026-europa-league"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-10-09",
  "observed_to": "2026-10-16",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
  "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
  "restored": true,
  "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
  "headline_part": "archived",
  "settled_picks": 3,
  "matches": 3,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": 4700,
  "staked_hundredths": 30000,
  "return_percent": "15.67",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2025-03-01",
  "period_to": "2026-04-16",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 3 settled archived picks by Marcel Niesner from copies archived before kick-off, across 3 matches between 1 March 2025 and 16 April 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 2 of 3 settled archived picks. Of the 630 predictions we hold for Marcel Niesner, 5 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive, 249 from the source’s own history and 376 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled archived picks",
    "value": "3",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "3",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "+47 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "value": "+15.7%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": null
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "Most of this history comes from the source’s own published record: 249 predictions dated by the source. 203 of them are settled in a historical price series; titles and rankings use the live record.",
   "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": null,
   "archived": {
    "part": "archived",
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
    "settled_picks": 3,
    "matches": 3,
    "match_dates": 3,
    "period_from": "2025-03-01",
    "period_to": "2026-04-16",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": 4700,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-03-12",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -4500,
     "after_picks": 2
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2025-03-01",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 5500,
     "after_picks": 1
    },
    "line_drawn": false,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2025-03-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 5500,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-03-12",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -4500,
      "n": 2,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-04-16",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 4700,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 1
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record restored 3 settled archived picks by Marcel Niesner from copies archived before kick-off, across 3 matches between 1 March 2025 and 16 April 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 2 of 3 settled archived picks. Of the 630 predictions we hold for Marcel Niesner, 5 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive, 249 from the source’s own history and 376 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/marcel-niesner/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "retro-1.1"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 630,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 0,
   "proven_predictions": 5,
   "proven_checked": 5,
   "proven_measured": 3,
   "proven_dates": 5,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 5,
     "checked": 5,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 3,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 3,
      "net_points_hundredths": 4700,
      "staked_hundredths": 30000,
      "return_percent": "15.67",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2025-03-01",
      "period_to": "2026-04-16",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 3,
       "return_main_percent": "15.67",
       "return_other_percent": "19.33",
       "settled_excluding_void": 3,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 4700,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 5800,
       "period_from": "2025-03-01",
       "period_to": "2026-04-16"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 5,
      "priced": 3
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 3,
      "won": 2,
      "won_percent": "66.7",
      "implied_percent": "56.5",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "52.4"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "64.5"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 376,
     "checked": 30,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 27,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 16,
      "net_points_hundredths": -79250,
      "staked_hundredths": 270000,
      "return_percent": "-29.35",
      "interval_low": "-60.75",
      "interval_high": "5.78",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2024-08-01",
      "period_to": "2026-08-06",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 18,
       "return_main_percent": "-28.39",
       "return_other_percent": "-29.00",
       "settled_excluding_void": 18,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -51100,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -52200,
       "period_from": "2024-08-01",
       "period_to": "2026-08-06"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price, aggregator",
       "series_code": "retro_market_closing",
       "picks": 1,
       "return_main_percent": "75.00",
       "return_other_percent": "80.13",
       "settled_excluding_void": 1,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 7500,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 8013,
       "period_from": "2025-12-15",
       "period_to": "2025-12-15"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 1,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": [
       "1 score forecast is waiting for a final score."
      ]
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 30,
      "priced": 27
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 27,
      "won": 10,
      "won_percent": "37.0",
      "implied_percent": "54.1",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 7,
        "picks": 16,
        "implied_percent": "56.8"
       },
       {
        "market": "Asian handicap",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 4,
        "implied_percent": "51.6"
       },
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "51.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "44.7"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "62.9"
       },
       {
        "market": "Other markets",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "44.7"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "source_reported",
     "title": "Source-reported history",
     "explanation": "The time and the pick are known only from the source’s own history; it is the basis of the record check and never part of the evidenced total.",
     "predictions": 249,
     "checked": 227,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 203,
      "void": 1,
      "matches": 203,
      "net_points_hundredths": -25150,
      "staked_hundredths": 2020000,
      "return_percent": "-1.25",
      "interval_low": "-14.34",
      "interval_high": "11.59",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2025-02-26",
      "period_to": "2026-10-10",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 203,
       "return_main_percent": "-1.25",
       "return_other_percent": "-0.94",
       "settled_excluding_void": 202,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -25150,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -18900,
       "period_from": "2025-02-26",
       "period_to": "2026-10-10"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 227,
      "priced": 203
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 201,
      "won": 111,
      "won_percent": "55.2",
      "implied_percent": "55.9",
      "left_out": 2,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 49,
        "picks": 77,
        "implied_percent": "58.2"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 35,
        "picks": 59,
        "implied_percent": "53.7"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 10,
        "picks": 33,
        "implied_percent": "58.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 9,
        "picks": 18,
        "implied_percent": "49.4"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and total goals",
        "won": 7,
        "picks": 11,
        "implied_percent": "55.7"
       },
       {
        "market": "Other markets",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 3,
        "implied_percent": "52.6"
       }
      ]
     }
    }
   ]
  },
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  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-30dd57d5ed780c076d3217d9",
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  "interval_low": null,
  "interval_high": null,
  "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 1 March 2025 – 16 April 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1",
  "record_from": "2024-08-01",
  "record_to": "2026-10-10"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-93988b6f3a1ef3f21bf2548f",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Paris Saint-Germain v Le Mans",
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   "kickoff": "2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Ligue 1",
   "lead_hours": -49.4,
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   "author_said": "Match result and both teams to score: Paris Saint-Germain win, both teams to score: yes at 2.37",
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   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:07:21.983Z",
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   "favourite": null,
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   "record_id": "n-f819323cf53fad5a27f8d9fd",
   "url": "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/7/#pick-n-f819323cf53fad5a27f8d9fd",
   "match": "FC Barcelona v Getafe",
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   "competition": "LaLiga",
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   "author_said": "Match result and both teams to score: FC Barcelona win, both teams to score: yes at 2.55",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
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   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_author_price",
   "series_short": "author's odds, restored",
   "author_price": "2.55",
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   "published_at": "2026-10-09T22:39:00.000Z",
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   "origin": "Source-reported history",
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   "attribution": null,
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   "evidence": {
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    "source_info": {
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    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Match result and both teams to score",
     "choice": "FC Barcelona win, both teams to score: yes",
     "author_odds": "2.55",
     "market_key": "both_teams_score_and_result",
     "choice_key": "1-yes",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "Match result and both teams to score: FC Barcelona win, both teams to score: yes at 2.55"
    },
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      "choice": "FC Barcelona win, both teams to score: yes",
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      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Marcel Niesner",
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     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/barcelona-vs-getafe-tipp-prognose-quoten-10-10-2026",
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    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "FC Barcelona win, both teams to score: yes"
   }
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   "url": "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/7/#pick-n-caad06f1757bd20776dff89a",
   "match": "Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur",
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   "kickoff": "2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -51.6,
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   "author_said": "Double chance: draw or Tottenham Hotspur at 2.18",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "1-1",
   "reason": null,
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   "points_hundredths": 11350,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "2.18",
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   "published_at": "2026-10-09T22:54:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:07:06.522Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
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   "evidence": {
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    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
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     "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/manchester-united-vs-tottenham-tipp-prognose-quoten-10-10-2026",
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     "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
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    "detected_at": "2026-10-12T20:07:06.522Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-10-13T20:11:07.649Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
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     "scoreline": "1-1"
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     "closing": "2.1350",
     "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
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    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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     "flags": [],
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    "added_on": "Added to our record on 12 Oct 2026",
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    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Double chance",
     "choice": "draw or Tottenham Hotspur",
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     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "Double chance: draw or Tottenham Hotspur at 2.18"
    },
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     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "in_words": "Won: the final score was Manchester United 1-1 Tottenham Hotspur."
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      "site_simulation": true,
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     "status": "not_named",
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     "material_url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/manchester-united-vs-tottenham-tipp-prognose-quoten-10-10-2026",
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     "closing": "2.0000",
     "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
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    "origin": "source_stated_date",
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    "added_on": "Added to our record on 12 Oct 2026",
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    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
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     "period": "match",
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     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: under 2.5 at 1.94"
    },
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     "in_words": "Won: the final score was Juventus 2-0 Atalanta."
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      "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
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     "material_url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/liverpool-vs-real-madrid-tipp-ki-prognose-quoten-04-11-2025-champions-league",
     "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
     "verdict_by": null,
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    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "Real Madrid over 1.5 (Team goals over/under 1.5)"
   }
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-af56e549f5367bad89b58884",
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   "match": "Liverpool v Real Madrid",
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   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
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   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-af56e549f5367bad89b58884",
    "quote_text": "Den womöglich ansprechendsten Value liefert aber die 2.50 auf den LFC-Heimsieg, da die künstliche Intelligenz, genannt „BETSiE“, dem Erfolg der Roten eine höhere Wahrscheinlichkeit einräumt als die besten Sportwettenanbieter.\n\nKI Prognose Liverpool vs. Real Madrid:\n\nSieg Liverpool zu 2.50",
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    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
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     "speaker": "Marcel Niesner",
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    },
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "outcome_label": "Liverpool",
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     "by_author": "2.5",
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     "closing": "2.3800",
     "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
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    "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "added_on": null,
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    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Liverpool",
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     "in_words": "1X2, match result: Liverpool at 2.5"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
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     "data_status": "unknown",
     "cause": "awaiting a final score for this restored pick",
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     "in_words": "Pending: awaiting a final score for this restored pick."
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    "settlements": [
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      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "1X2, match result",
      "choice": "Liverpool",
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     {
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      "site_simulation": true,
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      "market_label": "1X2, match result",
      "choice": "Liverpool",
      "decimal_odds": "2.3800",
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      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "skipped",
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    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "prediction",
    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Marcel Niesner",
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     "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/liverpool-vs-real-madrid-tipp-ki-prognose-quoten-04-11-2025-champions-league",
     "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
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    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "Liverpool to win"
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  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-6250fee9ebf4775a46d649ff",
   "url": "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/23/#pick-n-6250fee9ebf4775a46d649ff",
   "match": "Liverpool v Real Madrid",
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   "kickoff": "2025-11-04T20:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Champions League",
   "lead_hours": -8262.0,
   "market_code": "handicap_asian",
   "author_said": "Asian handicap 0: Real Madrid 0 at 1.84",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
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   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
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   "published_at": "2025-11-04T08:25:37.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-15T02:00:56.071Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-6250fee9ebf4775a46d649ff",
    "quote_text": "dennoch probiere ich es im Vorfeld der Partie Liverpool gegen Real Madrid mit dem Tipp auf den Auswärtssieg von Real +0 AHC. Im Falle eines Unentschiedens gäbe es den Einsatz in Höhe von fünf Units zurück. Die bei Bet365 angebotene Quote beläuft sich auf 1.84.",
    "fragment_from": 11633,
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    "source_info": {
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    },
    "market_label": "Asian handicap 0",
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     "closing": "2.0450",
     "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
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    "origin": "source_stated_date",
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    "added_on": null,
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    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Asian handicap 0",
     "choice": "Real Madrid 0",
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     "in_words": "Asian handicap 0: Real Madrid 0 at 1.84"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
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     "data_status": "unknown",
     "cause": "awaiting a final score for this restored pick",
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     "in_words": "Pending: awaiting a final score for this restored pick."
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      "choice": "Real Madrid 0",
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      "result_words": "Pending",
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      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:28:00.052Z",
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      "market_label": "Asian handicap 0",
      "choice": "Real Madrid 0",
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      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "skipped",
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    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "prediction",
    "authorship": {
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     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/liverpool-vs-real-madrid-tipp-ki-prognose-quoten-04-11-2025-champions-league",
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    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "Real Madrid 0"
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  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-971af9f8c7ffeb0aba39fabe",
   "url": null,
   "match": "FC Bayern München v Bayer 04 Leverkusen",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-11-01T17:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Bundesliga",
   "lead_hours": -8283.6,
   "market_code": "half_time_full_time",
   "author_said": "Half-time/full-time: FC Bayern München at half-time, FC Bayern München at full-time at 1.6",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
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   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "disputed_reading",
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   "published_at": "2025-10-31T23:59:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T21:03:46.778Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
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  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-cf61c5f30e49a7692711e0e8",
   "url": null,
   "match": "FC Bayern München v Club Brugge KV",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-10-22T19:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Champions League",
   "lead_hours": -8522.1,
   "market_code": "half_time_full_time",
   "author_said": "Half-time/full-time: FC Bayern München at half-time, FC Bayern München at full-time at 1.68",
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   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
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   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
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   "published_at": "2025-10-22T05:59:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T21:05:29.917Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
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   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-cb728bea092e8f32428e128a",
   "url": null,
   "match": "FC Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-10-18T16:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Bundesliga",
   "lead_hours": -8620.6,
   "market_code": "half_time_full_time",
   "author_said": "Half-time/full-time: FC Bayern München at half-time, FC Bayern München at full-time at 1.88",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
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   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "disputed_reading",
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   "published_at": "2025-10-17T22:59:27.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T21:06:10.226Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
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   "attribution": null,
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   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-2d8ef88c994bd40b139329e3",
   "url": "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/20/#pick-n-2d8ef88c994bd40b139329e3",
   "match": "FC Kairat Almaty v Real Madrid",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-09-30T16:45:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Champions League",
   "lead_hours": -9081.2,
   "market_code": "total",
   "author_said": "Over/Under 0.5 goals, first half: over 0.5 at 2.32",
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   "group": "excluded",
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   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
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   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-09-30T15:02:40.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-14T01:54:07.844Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": "price disputed: the author's 2.32 is 2.0 times the last pre-match archive price 1.14 of the same selection; returns at the author's price leave it out",
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-2d8ef88c994bd40b139329e3",
    "quote_text": "Für ein Tor in den ersten 15 Minuten hält Betano beispielsweise eine 2.32 parat.",
    "fragment_from": 11920,
    "fragment_to": 12000,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/kairat-almaty-vs-real-madrid-tipp-ki-prognose-quoten-30-09-2025-champions-league",
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    "published_at": "2025-09-30T15:02:40.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-14T01:54:07.844Z",
    "executed_at": null,
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
    "cause_code": "disputed_reading",
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     "event_id": null,
     "display_name": "FC Kairat Almaty v Real Madrid",
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    },
    "market_label": "Over/Under 0.5 goals, first half",
    "outcome_label": "over 0.5",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": "2.32",
     "our_snapshot": null,
     "our_snapshot_at": null,
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   "quote": "Als Neukunde habt ihr zudem das Anrecht auf den Oddset Willkommensbonus von bis zu 100 zusätzlichen Euros auf eure erste Einzahlung.",
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   "quote": "Obwohl zwischen Liverpool und Chelsea die Wettquoten auf den Heimerfolg mit 1.70 verhältnismäßig niedrig ausfallen, haben wir uns dafür entschieden, eine entsprechende Wette auf dem Drei-Weg-Markt…",
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   "quote": "Eine Kombination aus diesen Ansätzen bringt eine stolze 2.20 mit sich, die wir mit fünf Units anspielen.",
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   "quote": "gehe ich komplett aus dem Risiko raus und empfehle stattdessen zwischen Liverpool und Manchester City den Tipp darauf, dass in beiden Halbzeiten mindestens ein Tor fällt. Bei Merkur Bets wird…",
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   "quote": "Selbiges prognostizieren wir für den Sonntagabend an der Anfield Road, weshalb über eine kombinierte Wette auf das 1X & Beide treffen nachgedacht werden darf.",
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   "quote": "Für das Über 1.5 (1.HZ) wird eine beachtliche 2.09 in der Spitze bei Intertops angeboten.",
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   "quote": "Hier winkt eine stattliche 3.15 in der Spitze",
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   "quote": "Bei NEO.bet könnt ihr zwischen Lille und Dortmund attraktive Quoten in Höhe von 2.58 auf einen David-Treffer anspielen.",
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   "quote": "gestalten sich zwischen Manchester City und Liverpool die Wettquoten auf ein Marmoush-Treffer sehr interessant. In der Bet365 App wird immerhin eine 3.40 in der Spitze angeboten.",
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   "quote": "Stattdessen lächelt mich die hohe 3.90er-Quote bei Bwin für ein Unentschieden an",
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   "quote": "geht mein Manchester City vs. Liverpool Tipp auf Über 3.5 Tore. Für mindestens vier Treffer nach 90 Minuten wird bei Merkur Bets eine 2.07 angeboten.",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:49.285Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
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   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Ich lehne mich mit meiner Liverpool vs. Tottenham Prognose auf mindestens ein Unentschieden der Gäste daher sicherlich nicht zu weit aus dem Fenster.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
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   "points_hundredths": null,
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   "published_at": "2025-01-09T06:46:09.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:49.285Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-5ecd7fe8265c83f1f72570d5",
   "url": null,
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   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "X2 & Unter 4.5\n\n1.80",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
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   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-e714fc0f9ef3258e070d6d34",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "X (1.HZ)\n\n2.60",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-09T06:46:09.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:49.285Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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   "correction": null
  },
  {
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   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Unter dem Strich zielt mein Tottenham vs. Liverpool Tipp deshalb auf eine torarme erste Halbzeit ab, in der maximal ein Tor fallen wird. Bei Merkur Bets wird hierfür eine tolle 1.88 angeboten, die…",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-09T06:46:09.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:49.285Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-2f616b922afbbd3e30350216",
   "url": null,
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   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "empfehle ich zwischen Bournemouth und Everton demnach einen Tipp auf das 1X & Unter 3.5, für das bei Bwin eine 1.70 in der Spitze angeboten wird",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-06T06:32:26.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:41:03.198Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
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   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "und gebe zu einer Quote von 3.05 in der Betano App auch den nächsten „Zu-Null“-Erfolg des Gastgebers in die Diskussion",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
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   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-06T06:32:26.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:41:03.198Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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   "favourite": null,
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  },
  {
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   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Wie in den letzten sechs PL-Spielen glaube ich an maximal ein Tor in der ersten Halbzeit (1.50 @Interwetten Deutschland)",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
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   "series_code": null,
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   "published_at": "2025-01-06T06:32:26.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:41:03.198Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
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  },
  {
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   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Mein Liverpool vs. Manchester United Tipp zielt auf das doppelte Ergebnis HT1/FT1 ab. Für die Halbzeitführung gepaart mit dem nächsten Dreier winkt bei Betano eine 1.70 in der Spitze.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "published_at": "2025-01-06T00:31:44.000Z",
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   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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  },
  {
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   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Eine Wette auf einen Handicap-Erfolg der Hausherren (-1) scheint indes ebenso rentabel wie das Über 2.5",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
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   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
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   "series_code": null,
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   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-05T12:00:51.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:40:55.127Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
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   "attribution": null,
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   "favourite": null,
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  },
  {
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   "match_url": null,
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   "competition": null,
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   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Eine Wette auf einen Handicap-Erfolg der Hausherren (-1) scheint indes ebenso rentabel wie das Über 2.5",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
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   "reason_code": "after_match",
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   "published_at": "2025-01-05T12:00:51.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:40:55.127Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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  },
  {
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   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Unter dem Strich erhalte ich bei Betano eine 1.87",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
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   "published_at": "2025-01-05T12:00:51.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:40:55.127Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
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   "attribution": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
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  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-71c367714bdfbe34d21d3dc4",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
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   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Mein Aston Villa vs. Leicester Tipp zielt daher auf den Heimsieg ab.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-05T12:00:51.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:40:55.127Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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  }
 ],
 "lead_time": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "threshold_hours": 2.0,
  "picks": 321,
  "before_kickoff": 0,
  "after_kickoff": 321,
  "at_least_2h": 0,
  "share_2h_plus": 0.0,
  "median_hours": null,
  "min_hours": null,
  "max_hours": null,
  "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off."
 },
 "baseline": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "rule": "recorded-line-1.0",
  "state": "none",
  "picks": 0,
  "settled_picks_all": 0,
  "excluded": {
   "market_without_favourite": 0,
   "no_recorded_line": 0,
   "favourite_not_settled": 0
  },
  "staked_hundredths": 0,
  "author_net_hundredths": 0,
  "favourite_net_hundredths": 0,
  "difference_hundredths": 0,
  "author_return_percent": null,
  "favourite_return_percent": null,
  "author_hit_rate": null,
  "favourite_hit_rate": null,
  "picked_favourite_share": null,
  "by_market": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out."
 },
 "pagination": {
  "per_page": 20,
  "total": 630,
  "pages": 33,
  "page_urls": [
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/2/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/3/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/4/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/5/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/6/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/7/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/8/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/9/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/10/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/11/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/12/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/13/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/14/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/15/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/16/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/17/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/18/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/19/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/20/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/21/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/22/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/23/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/24/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/25/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/26/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/27/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/28/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/29/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/30/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/31/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/32/",
   "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/33/"
  ],
  "groups": {
   "settled": 262,
   "pending": 0,
   "excluded": 368
  },
  "continuation": "by_time",
  "page": 1,
  "first": 1,
  "last": 20,
  "author_url": "/authors/marcel-niesner/",
  "current": false
 },
 "title_tag": "Marcel Niesner Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources",
 "calculator": null,
 "person": {
  "person_id": "o-b832253b722962f4be645c74",
  "type_code": "individual",
  "name_shown": "Marcel Niesner",
  "main_entity": "e-b832253b722962f4be645c74",
  "identity": {
   "status": "not_verified",
   "is_verified": false,
   "when": null,
   "source_list": []
  },
  "platform_list": [
   {
    "entity_ref": "e-b832253b722962f4be645c74",
    "medium": "Wettbasis",
    "channel": "section pages",
    "domain": "wettbasis.com",
    "source_info": null,
    "byline": "Marcel Niesner",
    "url": null,
    "summary": {
     "statements": 1774,
     "predictions": 630,
     "settled_picks": 3,
     "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
     "return_percent": 15.67,
     "headline_part": "archived",
     "period_from": "2026-10-09",
     "period_to": "2026-10-16"
    }
   }
  ],
  "previously": [],
  "trust_tier": "probation"
 },
 "data_revision": {
  "data_version": "2026-10-13.5",
  "updated": "2026-10-13",
  "current_release": "2026-11-07.2",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "price_rule": "reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
  "sample": {
   "settled_picks": 3,
   "matches": 3,
   "void": 0,
   "period_from": "2025-03-01",
   "period_to": "2026-04-16",
   "composition_hash": "d64940e850c0f6b67fcc01235b8b65a247327fe48e5aab6fb9489171e50a981a"
  },
  "changes_url": "#changes",
  "corrections_url": "/corrections/"
 },
 "number_changes": [
  {
   "id": "zc-2b8dff8befb4571b7955",
   "at": "2026-10-13T20:21:18.065Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-13.5",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-13.4",
   "url": "/authors/marcel-niesner/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
   "before": null,
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-13.5",
    "return_percent": "15.67",
    "settled_picks": 3,
    "matches": 3,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "d64940e850c0f6b67fcc01235b8b65a247327fe48e5aab6fb9489171e50a981a",
    "text": "+47.00 points on 3 settled picks across 3 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "First headline number for this record: 3 settled picks in the series “historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only”.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
    "added": 3,
    "removed": 0,
    "changed": 0
   },
   "correction_id": null
  }
 ],
 "counts_by_slice": {
  "portions": [
   {
    "code": "archived",
    "title": "Archived before kick-off",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "settled_picks": 3,
    "total_check": true,
    "market_list": [
     {
      "code_name": "1x2",
      "in_words": "Match result",
      "url": null,
      "settled_picks": 2,
      "won": 1,
      "void": 0,
      "net_points_hundredths": -800,
      "return_percent": "-4.0",
      "period_from": "2026-03-12",
      "period_to": "2026-04-16",
      "small_sample": true,
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}