Marc Mödinger: football tipster record — archive reconstruction

Where Marc Mödinger publishes

Published under this name on wettbasis.com.

Record card

To link to this record from your site or bio, copy the line below. It states only the facts of this record.

<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/authors/marc-modinger/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 9 October 2026 · 104 predictions · last change 16 October 2026</a>

Archived before kick-off · 1 settled archived pick · won 1 of 1

Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.

1 prediction; 1 checked against the final score.

1 settled selection across 1 match, 13 September 2025.

Reconstructed at archived prices: +60 points.

Eligible prices were available for 1 of the 1 selection checked against the result.

Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 1 of 1 decided pick; the prices of the same picks implied 62.5%.

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Found after kick-off · 8 settled after-match picks · won 6 of 8

First Found after kick-off; the date is the one the source states.

37 predictions; 8 checked against the final score.

8 settled selections across 3 matches, 13 March 2025 – 6 August 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: +441 points.

Eligible prices were available for 8 of the 8 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 6 of 8 decided picks; the prices of the same picks implied 54.4%.

By market: Over/under goals 3 of 4 (prices implied 55.4%); Both teams to score 2 of 2 (prices implied 59.5%); Match result 1 of 2 (prices implied 47.5%).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Score forecasts without a betting market price

2 score forecasts are waiting for a final score.

Source-reported history · 62 settled source-reported picks · −22.3%

The time and the pick are known only from the source’s own history; it is the basis of the record check and never part of the evidenced total.

66 predictions; 64 checked against the final score.

62 settled selections across 62 matches, 13 March 2025 – 10 October 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −22.3% (95.0% interval −42.8% to −2.1%).

Eligible prices were available for 62 of the 64 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 29 of 62 decided picks (46.8%); the prices of the same picks implied 58.8%.

By market: Over/under goals 12 of 23 (prices implied 57.4%); Both teams to score 4 of 12 (prices implied 60.3%); Match result 4 of 10 (prices implied 59.4%); Result and total goals 6 of 10 (prices implied 62.2%); Team goals 1 of 4 (prices implied 55.5%); Double chance 2 of 3 (prices implied 55.0%).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.

What kind of number is this?

Measured

Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; the time of each pre-match web-archive copy.

Stated

The author’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.

Calculated

Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.

Unknown

Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published.

The four data statuses

What this record covers

We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything Marc Mödinger has published.

Source we monitor

wettbasis.com

Channels

website

Watched by us

9–16 October 2026

Earlier entries

restored from archives, back to 13 March 2025

Author's response

No author's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.

Respond or request a correction

Coverage and exclusions

One set of records: the author’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.

Statements

224

Predictions

104

Qualifying picks

84

Settled picks

73

Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.

Statements that are not predictions: 23 opinions and 97 not about a match.

How this return was calculated

Every settled pick in “Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)” is a stake of 100 points at the last pre-match archive price, a reconstruction at archived prices on picks archived before kick-off only. The net result (+60 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 1 settled archived pick; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (100 points), void picks excluded. Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.

Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.

Separate comparison window — last 90 days: the return appears from the first settled pick in this window (method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted

Changes to this record

The headline number above is (reconstruction method 1.1, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only). When it changes, the earlier figure stays here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.

Coverage extended · 13 October 2026

Before

no published headline number

After

+60.00 points on 1 settled pick across 1 match · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

First headline number for this record: 1 settled pick in the series “reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only”.

Who this is

Last recorded by us

16 October 2026, 22 days before this page's data date

Observed

9 October 2026 — 16 October 2026

Channels

website

Statements other than predictions (68 shown)

• “Der noch fehlende Spielrhythmus könnte eine Erklärung dafür sein, warum der hohe Favorit das Hinspiel nur” — 16 October 2026, 04:13 BST · source
• “Denn während die serbischen Gäste bereits das erste nationale Ligaspiel absolviert hatten, kam Ajax direkt” — 16 October 2026, 04:13 BST · source
• “Der Kaltstart war dem niederländischen Rekordmeister am vergangenen Donnerstag anzumerken.” — 16 October 2026, 04:13 BST · source
• “Sollte Novi Sad am kommenden Donnerstag der erste Sieg gegen ein holländisches Team gelingen sind bei Ajax” — 16 October 2026, 04:13 BST · source
• “Ebenso verlor Vojvodina das Hinspiel in Amsterdam und ist damit nach wie vor sieglos gegen Teams aus den” — 16 October 2026, 04:13 BST · source
• “Mit dem Sieg im Hinspiel gewann Ajax also alle bisherigen Duelle gegen serbische Teams.” — 16 October 2026, 04:13 BST · source
• “Sollte Amsterdam auch im Stadion Karadjordje zu Null bestehen, sind für diesen Vojvodina gegen Ajax Amsterdam” — 16 October 2026, 04:13 BST · source
• “dennoch waren die jüngsten Ergebnisse zwei knappe 1:0-Siege.” — 16 October 2026, 04:13 BST · source
• “Italienischer Catenaccio trifft bei Ajax also auf niederländischen Offensivfußball.” — 16 October 2026, 04:13 BST · source
• “Zuletzt blieb der niederländische Rekordmeister aber zweimal in Serie ohne Gegentor” — 16 October 2026, 04:13 BST · source
• “Sicherlich war Ajax Amsterdam im Hinspiel in jeder Hinsicht überlegen.” — 16 October 2026, 04:13 BST · source
• “Das knappe 1:0 birgt ein gewisses Risiko für das Rückspiel in Novi Sad.” — 16 October 2026, 04:13 BST · source
• “Klare Sache für den Favoriten?” — 5 November 2025, 07:14 GMT · source
• “Eine vierte Auswärtsniederlage in Serie in diesem Wettbewerb soll gegen Qarabag unter allen Umständen vermieden werden.” — 5 November 2025, 07:14 GMT · source
• “Und trotz der geringen Quote für den Auswärtssieg findet die Qarabag FC gegen Chelsea KI Prognose sogar noch Value auf dem Dreiweg-Markt.” — 5 November 2025, 07:14 GMT · source
• “Da die Bookies wohl aus historischen Gründen nicht so recht an einen Torerfolg von Qarabag glauben, ist mit dieser Wette zudem ein gewisser Value verbunden.” — 5 November 2025, 07:14 GMT · source
• “weshalb wir uns bei unserer Qarabag FC gegen Chelsea Prognose durchaus vorstellen können, dass die Qurbanov-Elf auch gegen das Team aus der Premier League trifft.” — 5 November 2025, 07:14 GMT · source
• “Ob sich da ein kleiner Jetlag bei den Blues bemerkbar macht bei unserer Qarabag FC gegen Chelsea Prognose?” — 5 November 2025, 07:14 GMT · source

• Lieblings-Wettanbieter: Betano

  · Source

• Nationalität: Deutschland

  · Source

• Alter: 43

  · Source

• Hier bei Bet365 wetten

  · Source

• Wettquoten Stand: 30.07.2024, 19:00

  · Source

• NEIN: 2.20 @Bet365

  · Source

• JA: 1.58 @Bet365

  · Source

• Beide Teams treffen

  · Source

• Unter 2,5 Tore: 2.35 @Bet365

  · Source

• Über 2,5 Tore: 1.54 @Bet365

  · Source

• Über / Unter 2,5 Tore

  · Source

• Quoten-Wahrscheinlichkeiten für Sieg Vojvodina / Unentschieden / Sieg Ajax Amsterdam:

  · Source

• Sieg Ajax Amsterdam: 1.70 @Betano

  · Source

• Unentschieden: 4.15 @Betano

  · Source

• Sieg Vojvodina: 4.20 @Bet365

  · Source

• Vojvodina vs. Ajax Amsterdam – beste Quoten Europa League Qualifikation

  · Source

• Rapid Wien vs. Wisla Krakau, 01.08.2024 – Wettbasis.com Analyse

  · Source

• Bringt Rapid den Vorsprung über die Zeit?

  · Source

• Statistik Highlights für Vojvodina gegen Ajax Amsterdam

  · Source

• und blieb dabei in beiden Duellen sieglos (0-1-1).

  · Source

• Einzig in der Qualifikation zur Europa League in der Saison 2016/27 stand Novi Sad mit dem AZ Alkmaar einem

  · Source

• Umgekehrt ist die Erfahrung des kommenden Gegners mit Gegnern aus den Niederlanden genauso rar.

  · Source

• Damals gewann Ajax beide Spiele gegen das auf europäischer Ebene weitestgehend unbekannte Team Borak Čačak

  · Source

• Die vorherigen beiden Duelle gehen auf die Europa League-Saison 2008/09 zurück.

  · Source

• Trotz langer Europapokalhistorie war das Aufeinandertreffen im Hinspiel das erst dritte Duell des niederländischen

  · Source

• Vojvodina – Ajax Amsterdam Direkter Vergleich / H2H-Bilanz

  · Source

• Letzte Spiele von Ajax Amsterdam:

  · Source

• Verletzte und Gesperrte Spieler von Ajax Amsterdam:

  · Source

• Voraussichtliche Aufstellung von Ajax Amsterdam:

  · Source

• Am offensiv ausgerichteten, in Holland üblichen 4-3-3-System hat Farioli zwar nichts verändert

  · Source

• Auf europäischer Ebene gelang dies in der vergangenen Saison in elf von zwölf Spielen nicht

  · Source

• Immerhin blieben die „Godenzonen“ diesmal ohne Gegentreffer.

  · Source

• Allerdings zeigen die Vojvodina gegen Ajax Amsterdam Quoten von Bookies wie Sunmaker Deutschland,

  · Source

• Ajax Amsterdam – Statistik & aktuelle Form

  · Source

• Letzte Spiele von Vojvodina:

  · Source

• Verletzte und Gesperrte Spieler von Vojvodina:

  · Source

• Voraussichtliche Aufstellung von Vojvodina:

  · Source

• Sichere Dir mit dem Code „wett10“ 10€ zum Testen bei Neobet

  · Source

• Ebenfalls historisch im Europapokal wäre ein zweiter Heimerfolg in Serie für den aserbaidschanischen Meister

  5 Nov 2025, 07:14 GMT · Source

• In der Historie verloren die Blues erst einmal vier Auswärtspartien in Serie in der Champions League (2004/05).

  5 Nov 2025, 07:14 GMT · Source

• Die letzten drei Auswärtsspiele in der Champions League verlor Chelsea.

  5 Nov 2025, 07:14 GMT · Source

• Zum ersten Mal in der Geschichte könnte Qarabag Agdam zwei Heimsiege in Serie im Europapokal feiern

  5 Nov 2025, 07:14 GMT · Source

• Die Blues gewannen unter Enzo Maresca 20 der letzten 23 internationalen Partien (inklusive FIFA Klub-WM)

  5 Nov 2025, 07:14 GMT · Source

• Chelsea erzielte zehn Treffer in den bisherigen zwei Königsklassen-Duellen gegen Qarabag Agdam

  5 Nov 2025, 07:14 GMT · Source

• Hol dir bei Betano mit dem Code BETMAX deine 20€ Freebet ohne Einzahlung

  5 Nov 2025, 07:14 GMT · Source

• Ich bin in einer fußballbegeisterten Familie aufgewachsen

  13 Mar 2025, 07:39 GMT · Source

• Beide Teams treffen JA: 2.05 @Bet365

  13 Mar 2025, 07:39 GMT · Source

• Sieg Viktoria Pilsen: 8.50 @Winamax

  13 Mar 2025, 07:39 GMT · Source

• Unentschieden: 4.75 @Bet365

  13 Mar 2025, 07:39 GMT · Source

• Sieg Lazio Rom: 1.36 @Oddset

  13 Mar 2025, 07:39 GMT · Source

The full list is in the JSON and CSV downloads of this page.

The same data, machine-readable

• Page data (JSON)
• Recorded picks (CSV)

From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.

Share cards of this record (1)

• Bankroll card — Marc Mödinger

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Calculations for the displayed picks

Record definitions and related evidence

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