Kieran Burke: football tipster record — archive reconstruction

Where Kieran Burke publishes

Published under this name on bettingnews.baroneracing.com.

Record card

To link to this record from your site or bio, copy the line below. It states only the facts of this record.

<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/authors/kieran-burke/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 108 predictions · last change 5 November 2026</a>

Recorded before kick-off: supporting evidence

Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.

How the market price is set

Recorded before kick-off, graded after the match

15 predictions recorded before kick-off. Right in 2 of 15.

Recorded before kick-off: saved by us from the source before the match started, with the time we saved it. Definition.

Prices implied by market

By market: Match result 1 of 3 (1 W / 2 L, average odds 1.60) Small sample (3); Result and both teams to score 0 of 2 (0 W / 2 L, average odds 3.55) Small sample (2); Draw no bet 1 of 1 (1 W / 0 L) Small sample (1); Over/under goals 1 of 1 (1 W / 0 L) Small sample (1).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Score forecasts without a betting market price

Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.

None of the 3 score forecasts named the exact score.

The result implied by the named score was right in 0 of 2 matches; the market favourite was right in 0 of the same 2 matches.

A pre-match market favourite is known for 2 of 3 forecasts; the comparison uses only those.

The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.

The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).

Archived before kick-off · 3 settled archived picks · won 1 of 3

Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.

4 predictions; 4 checked against the final score.

3 settled selections across 1 match, 20 May 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −140 points.

Eligible prices were available for 3 of the 4 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 1 of 3 decided picks; the prices of the same picks implied 47.3%.

By market: Match result 1 of 3 (1 W / 2 L, average odds 1.60) Small sample (3); Result and both teams to score 0 of 2 (0 W / 2 L, average odds 3.55) Small sample (2); Draw no bet 1 of 1 (1 W / 0 L) Small sample (1); Over/under goals 1 of 1 (1 W / 0 L) Small sample (1).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Found after kick-off · 10 settled after-match picks · +29.6%

First Found after kick-off; the date is the one the source states.

46 predictions; 13 checked against the final score.

10 settled selections across 7 matches, 17 September 2025 – 31 August 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: +29.6%.

Eligible prices were available for 10 of the 13 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 6 of 10 decided picks (60.0%); the prices of the same picks implied 38.1%.

By market: Match result 1 of 3 (1 W / 2 L, average odds 1.60) Small sample (3); Result and both teams to score 0 of 2 (0 W / 2 L, average odds 3.55) Small sample (2); Draw no bet 1 of 1 (1 W / 0 L) Small sample (1); Over/under goals 1 of 1 (1 W / 0 L) Small sample (1).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.

Score forecasts without a betting market price

Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to this score forecast.

The score forecast did not name the exact score.

The result implied by the named score was right in 1 of 1 match; the market favourite was right in 1 of the same match.

The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).

The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).

These forecasts were Found after kick-off; when they were made depends on the date the source gives.

What kind of number is this?

Measured

Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; our pre-match market snapshot of each settled pick; the time of each pre-match web-archive copy.

Stated

The author’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.

Calculated

Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.

Unknown

Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published.

The four data statuses

What this record covers

We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything Kieran Burke has published.

Source we monitor

bettingnews.baroneracing.com

Channels

website

Watched by us

28 September – 5 November 2026

Earlier entries

restored from archives, back to 17 September 2025

Without a match page

33 predictions

Stated price vs market

How the prices this author stated compare with an independent market price of the same selection. Calculated from the picks where both prices are known; a gap can come from market movement or from one bookmaker offering more than the market, so it describes the stated prices, not the reason for them.

Our market price when we first recorded the pick — our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off). Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5.0% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way.

Largest gaps: 4.75 against 5.65 (−15.9%)

Author's response

No author's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.

Respond or request a correction

Coverage and exclusions

One set of records: the author’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.

Statements

450

Predictions

108

Qualifying picks

38

Settled picks

25

Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.

Statements that are not predictions: 43 opinions and 299 not about a match.

How this return was calculated

Every settled pick in “Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)” is a stake of 100 points at the last pre-match archive price, a reconstruction at archived prices on picks archived before kick-off only. The net result (−140 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 3 settled archived picks; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (300 points), void picks excluded. Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.

Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.

Separate comparison window — last 90 days: −80.53 points on 7 live picks settled in this window · 7 matches · 20 October – 6 November 2026 (calculated, method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted

Changes to this record

The headline number above is (reconstruction method 1.1, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only). When it changes, the earlier figure stays here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.

Method changed · 9 October 2026

Before

+15.9% on 17 settled picks across 10 matches · author's stated odds, restored · Reconstruction method 1.0 Small sample (17)

After

−140.00 points on 3 settled picks across 1 match · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first Found after kick-off no longer enter the headline number. Was: author's stated odds, restored (17 settled picks). Now: reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (3 settled picks).

Coverage extended · 9 October 2026

Before

no published headline number

After

+15.9% on 17 settled picks across 10 matches · author's stated odds, restored · Reconstruction method 1.0 Small sample (17)

First headline number for this record: 17 settled picks in the series “author's stated odds, restored”.

Who this is

Last recorded by us

5 November 2026, 2 days before this page's data date

Observed

28 September 2026 — 5 November 2026

Channels

website

Statements other than predictions (60 shown)

• “Are Manchester United BACK, or was Tuesday’s Champions League comeback against Roma a flash in the pan?” — 5 November 2026, 15:33 GMT · source
• “This game could be decided by a battle of the opposing centre forwards.” — 5 November 2026, 13:12 GMT · source
• “Can he survive?” — 29 October 2026, 13:42 GMT · source
• “He’s the class horse in the race and if he shows his best form tonight, he’ll have a really good” — 27 October 2026, 11:59 GMT · source
• “Places in the First Division playoff final are up for grabs on Tuesday night.” — 27 October 2026, 09:28 GMT · source
• “Could Sunday’s game at Old Trafford against Bournemouth be Michael Carrick’s last in charge of Manchester” — 22 October 2026, 15:14 BST · source
• “The Colombian forward is one of Parrott’s main rivals for a starting spot at Betis, meaning his absence” — 20 October 2026, 11:07 BST · source
• “Is Michael Carrick already on borrowed time, and is Eddie Howe the man to replace him?” — 15 October 2026, 14:31 BST · source
• “Paul Callaghan tells us why he’s expecting a goal-laden weekend.” — 15 October 2026, 14:31 BST · source

• The lads also reflect on the season that was and discuss how things may play out in 2027.

  5 Nov 2026, 17:51 GMT · Source

• Kieran Burke & Shane Keegan preview the FAI Cup Final between Derry City and Waterford FC

  5 Nov 2026, 17:51 GMT · Source

• PODCAST: LEAGUE OF IRELAND LOWDOWN EP34 | FAI CUP FINAL & PLAYOFF PREVIEWS | 2026 SEASON REVIEW

  5 Nov 2026, 17:51 GMT · Source

• Burke & Alan Marron preview the key races of the weekend.

  5 Nov 2026, 15:30 GMT · Source

• Retired jockey Paul Callaghan describes riding at Aintree and how Will Buick may deal with the Billy Loughnane/Godolphin news.

  5 Nov 2026, 15:30 GMT · Source

• The Haldon Cup and the November Handicap are among the highlights on ITV Racing

  5 Nov 2026, 15:30 GMT · Source

• Former England defender Tarkowski is 16/5 to be shown a card during the match.

  5 Nov 2026, 13:12 GMT · Source

• Thierno Barry to score 2+ goals is price boosted online. (Was 6/1, NOW 7/1).

  5 Nov 2026, 13:12 GMT · Source

• FENERBAHCE v LIVERPOOL: MATCH PREVIEW, TEAM NEWS, PREDICTED LINEUPS & BETTING TIPS

  4 Nov 2026, 16:23 GMT · Source

• DISCLAIMER: This article is football satire.

  4 Nov 2026, 16:23 GMT · Source

• 21/5 Fenerbahce, 1/2 Liverpool, 360/100 the draw.

  3 Nov 2026, 10:34 GMT · Source

• Isak is available at a boosted price of 9/2 online to score first.

  3 Nov 2026, 10:34 GMT · Source

• What are the odds for Barcelona v Aston Villa?

  2 Nov 2026, 12:49 GMT · Source

• Barcelona will be without Dani Olmo, Andreas Christensen, Xavi Espart, Roony Bardghji, Eric Garcia

  2 Nov 2026, 12:49 GMT · Source

• Unai Emery returns to Spain as Aston Villa visits the Camp Nou.

  2 Nov 2026, 12:49 GMT · Source

• Barry has repaid David Moyes’ faith with seven goals in 11 starts this season

  2 Nov 2026, 10:50 GMT · Source

• Jarrad Branthwaite is expected to return after missing the cup victory through concussion

  2 Nov 2026, 10:50 GMT · Source

• Lewis Miley, Matias Fernandez-Pardo and Will Osula are all facing late fitness tests

  2 Nov 2026, 10:50 GMT · Source

• Gordon Elliott has saddled five of the last ten renewals of the feature race.

  30 Oct 2026, 11:49 GMT · Source

• First entries released for the BAR 1 Betting Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan

  30 Oct 2026, 11:49 GMT · Source

• Join Kieran Burke & Alan Marron for a preview of the 2026 Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland.

  29 Oct 2026, 15:28 GMT · Source

• Subscribe to BAR 1 Betting on YouTube

  27 Oct 2026, 11:59 GMT · Source

• Washington Heights was sent off the 5/2 favourite

  27 Oct 2026, 11:59 GMT · Source

• Notable Speech bids to defend his Breeders’ Cup Mile crown after winning the race at Del Mar in 2025

  27 Oct 2026, 10:43 GMT · Source

• Aidan O’Brien’s Diamond Necklace is among the leading contenders for Saturday’s $5 million Breeders

  27 Oct 2026, 10:43 GMT · Source

• The 2026 Breeders’ Cup World Championships takes place on Friday, October 30 and Saturday, October

  27 Oct 2026, 10:43 GMT · Source

• Cheltenham is back, and a man who knows about riding over the jumps at the October meeting is Paul Callaghan, who joins Kieran Burke and Will Reilly in studio to look ahead

  22 Oct 2026, 15:17 BST · Source

• PODCAST: ITV RACING TIPS FOR CHELTENHAM, DONCASTER & NEWBURY ON SATURDAY

  22 Oct 2026, 15:17 BST · Source

• Predicted Lineups Ipswich XI (Predicted): Walton; Ouattara, O’Shea, Diop, Davis; Palacios, Lukic

  22 Oct 2026, 12:26 BST · Source

• Team News Ipswich are expected to have a fully fit squad available, with Sasa Lukic set to return

  22 Oct 2026, 12:26 BST · Source

• What are the odds for Ipswich v Nottingham Forest? 2/1 Ipswich Town, 5/4 Nottingham Forest

  22 Oct 2026, 12:26 BST · Source

• Ballymac Kamala Delivers First Irish Laurels Triumph for Liam Dowling

  20 Oct 2026, 11:48 BST · Source

• *This article is a work of satire. Quotes attributed to public figures are fictional and intended for humorous

  20 Oct 2026, 11:07 BST · Source

• PODCAST: Premier League Tips & Preview – Expect goals this weekend | Eddie Howe to United?

  15 Oct 2026, 14:31 BST · Source

• It’s British Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday. Kieran Burke was joined in the studio by retired jockey Paul Callaghan and racing expert Will Reilly to preview the action.

  15 Oct 2026, 14:33 BST · Source

• PODCAST: British Champions Day preview & tips

  15 Oct 2026, 14:33 BST · Source

• Tune in to the latest episode of League of Ireland Lowdown.

  15 Oct 2026, 10:02 BST · Source

• Friday’s LOI Premier Division Double Waterford FC double chance (v Bohemians) Shamrock Rovers to win (v Galway United) Odds: 3.28/1

  15 Oct 2026, 10:02 BST · Source

• As for the Gypsies, questions are being asked of Alan Reynolds’ team selections after Bohs season came crashing down in the space of four days.

  15 Oct 2026, 10:11 BST · Source

• Shamrock Rovers now have one hand on the title following Monday’s dramatic Dublin Derby victory against Bohemians.

  15 Oct 2026, 10:11 BST · Source

• Snooker fans in Ireland and the UK can watch the Northern Ireland Open on TNT Sports

  15 Oct 2026, 08:44 BST · Source

• Northern Ireland Open 2026 prize money Stage Prize money Winner £100,000

  15 Oct 2026, 08:44 BST · Source

• 2026 Northern Ireland Open outright odds: Zhao Xintong 9/2, Judd Trump 11/2

  15 Oct 2026, 08:44 BST · Source

• 2025 World Champion Zhao Xintong heads the outright betting market.

  15 Oct 2026, 08:44 BST · Source

• Previous winners 2025: Jack Lisowski 2024: Kyren Wilson

  15 Oct 2026, 08:44 BST · Source

• Round 1 Sunday, October 18 Si Jiahui v Wang Xinbo

  15 Oct 2026, 08:44 BST · Source

• There is also plenty of interest for Irish snooker fans, with Aaron Hill taking on Thepchaiya Un-Nooh and Mark Allen drawn against fellow Northern Irishman Jordan Brown.

  15 Oct 2026, 08:44 BST · Source

• The draw features a host of familiar names, with Lisowski beginning his title defence against Huang Jiahao.

  15 Oct 2026, 08:44 BST · Source

• Allen has been drawn to face fellow Northern Irish man Jordan Brown.

  15 Oct 2026, 08:44 BST · Source

• Former world number one Mark Allen has been absent from the World Snooker Tour since May

  15 Oct 2026, 08:44 BST · Source

• Should he take his place in the draw, O’Sullivan will face Ka Wai Cheung in the opening round.

  15 Oct 2026, 08:44 BST · Source

The full list is in the JSON and CSV downloads of this page.

The same data, machine-readable

• Page data (JSON)
• Recorded picks (CSV)

From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.

Share cards of this record (4)

• Bankroll card — Kieran Burke
• A month following Kieran Burke
• Said → happened — Kieran Burke
• Turning point — Kieran Burke

Check us

• How we count
• Right of reply and complaints
• What we collect
• Corrections log
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Calculations for the displayed picks

Record definitions and related evidence

• Recorded picks and results
• Matches
• How this return was calculated
• Premier League
• League of Ireland Premier Division
• UEFA Champions League
• 6