{ "schema_name": "page", "schema_version": "2.0", "page_type": "author", "url": "/authors/kieran-burke/", "canonical": "/authors/kieran-burke/", "language": "en", "hreflang": [], "translations": [], "heading": "Kieran Burke: Football Prediction Record", "description": "3 settled picks by Kieran Burke archived before kick-off across 1 match, 20 May 2026: won 1 of 3, reconstructed at archived prices. Live record so far.", "first_paragraph": { "body": "Forecast Record restored 3 settled archived picks by Kieran Burke from copies archived before kick-off, across 1 match on 20 May 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 1 of 3 settled archived picks. Live record so far: won 3 of 7 settled live picks at our recorded market price. Of the 108 predictions we hold for Kieran Burke, 75 are linked to matches: 25 were recorded by us before kick-off, 4 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 46 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "key_number": "3", "data": "2026-11-07", "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot", "brand": "Forecast Record" }, "indexable": false, "noindex_reason": "outside_core", "indexing_threshold": { "settled_count": 13, "date_count": 16, "required_settled": 10, "required_dates": 2, "live_count": 9, "restored_count": 16, "of_them_archived": 4 }, "data_date": "2026-11-07T17:48:54.077Z", "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z", "content_hash": null, "meaning_hash": "6581721488e63ebb5b7896d4a15e65a0117f77fcfb406ddd0715da6e6b7d0e02", "dependency_group": "author:e-10648387bd9db6ca839f0a3b", "release_id": "20261107-195223", "markup": [ { "type_code": "WebPage", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Organization", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Person", "allowed": true, "cause": null } ], "exports": [ { "type_code": "json", "url": "/authors/kieran-burke/index.json", "bytes": null }, { "type_code": "csv", "url": "/authors/kieran-burke/picks.csv", "bytes": null } ], "modules": { "affiliate": true, "api": true, "compare_yourself": false }, "affiliate_block": { "container": true, "request_url": "/partnery/moi", "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.", "page_category": "author" }, "restrictions": { "name_withdrawn": false, "tracker_number": null, "withdrawn_quotes": [], "removed_at": null, "cause": null, "suspended_records": [], "withdrawal_log_number": 0 }, "page_links": { "methodology": "/methodology/", "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/", "source_coverage": "/coverage/", "corrections_log": "/corrections/", "api": "/api/", "claim": "/claim/" }, "entity": { "id": "e-10648387bd9db6ca839f0a3b", "public_name": "Kieran Burke", "tracker_number": 1570, "status": "active", "inactive_since": null, "verified_creator": false, "observation_period": { "since": "2026-09-28", "until": "2026-11-05" }, "platform_list": [ { "medium": "website", "handle": null, "url": null, "link_confirmed": false, "show": true } ], "comment": null }, "headline_number": { "metric": { "metric_id": "p-e-10648387bd9db6ca839f0a3b-roi-market-price-90d-z99", "code_name": "roi_market_price", "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot", "window_kind": "90d", "window_from": "2026-08-09", "window_to": "2026-11-07", "amount": "-11.5043", "unit": "percent", "data_status": "calculated", "cause": null, "n_bets": 7, "n_events": 7, "n_void": 0, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "ci_method": "not_estimated", "price_source": "market_price", "coverage_percent": "100.00", "breakdown": [], "methodology_version": "2.2", "data_date": "2026-11-07T17:48:54.077Z", "enough_for_ranking": false, "series_uid": null, "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot" }, "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 7 settled picks across 7 matches", "average_odds": "2.65", "odds_from_author": 7, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, "metrics": [], "history": [], "simulation": { "series_uid": "sr-fdca0cfedb4b7d365035d19f", "bankroll_hundredths": 991947, "reserve_hundredths": 0, "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000, "top_up_count": 0, "profit_hundredths": -8053, "rewards_off": null, "initial_hundredths": 1000000, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "data_points": [ { "at": "2026-10-22T00:50:15.263Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1011250, "profit_hundredths": 11250, "outcome_id": "ish-abdaeb0b411256ddbdac7fdf" }, { "at": "2026-10-24T00:52:39.300Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1001250, "profit_hundredths": 1250, "outcome_id": "ish-a13412403ab8e51860d7398f" }, { "at": "2026-10-30T22:25:39.130Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 991250, "profit_hundredths": -8750, "outcome_id": "ish-fb220c068c9e2dbe2ba9f284" }, { "at": "2026-11-02T22:13:09.634Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1005050, "profit_hundredths": 5050, "outcome_id": "ish-4b1d5039bd6d5e6d109dce0c" }, { "at": "2026-11-03T22:07:41.401Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 995050, "profit_hundredths": -4950, "outcome_id": "ish-5d38e4bea2010625def8dba6" }, { "at": "2026-11-06T22:16:42.538Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1001947, "profit_hundredths": 1947, "outcome_id": "ish-73fe5e0ceebcced460eccbd8" }, { "at": "2026-11-07T10:28:44.478Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 991947, "profit_hundredths": -8053, "outcome_id": "ish-51324ee182f19bfe547a6bde" } ], "top_ups": [], "rule": "When the balance falls below 100 points and no bets are open, 10000 points are added; the remaining balance is kept. 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"market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:24.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:24.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:31.100Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-5f2ea2577f5323218682ef42", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-5f2ea2577f5323218682ef42", "quote_text": "There is also plenty of interest for Irish snooker fans, with Aaron Hill taking on Thepchaiya Un-Nooh and Mark Allen drawn against fellow Northern Irishman Jordan Brown.", "fragment_from": 2920, "fragment_to": 3089, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://bettingnews.baroneracing.com/2026/10/northern-ireland-open-snooker-2026", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Kieran Burke", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "e04e9223353aad99c76baa22e9675cde30eb90e0c028778874faea402a338479", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:24.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:31.100Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:24.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:24.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:31.100Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-29b9d6871719c5ac0ccbe002", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-29b9d6871719c5ac0ccbe002", "quote_text": "The draw features a host of familiar names, with Lisowski beginning his title defence against Huang Jiahao.", "fragment_from": 2811, "fragment_to": 2918, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://bettingnews.baroneracing.com/2026/10/northern-ireland-open-snooker-2026", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Kieran Burke", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "e04e9223353aad99c76baa22e9675cde30eb90e0c028778874faea402a338479", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:24.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:31.100Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:24.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:24.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:31.100Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-cf1a7e7f5e8e51ff31b4d890", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-cf1a7e7f5e8e51ff31b4d890", "quote_text": "Allen has been drawn to face fellow Northern Irish man Jordan Brown.", "fragment_from": 2304, "fragment_to": 2372, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://bettingnews.baroneracing.com/2026/10/northern-ireland-open-snooker-2026", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Kieran Burke", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "e04e9223353aad99c76baa22e9675cde30eb90e0c028778874faea402a338479", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:24.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:31.100Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:24.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:24.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:31.100Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-0406d3eae6d610e2ec3b318f", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-0406d3eae6d610e2ec3b318f", "quote_text": "Former world number one Mark Allen has been absent from the World Snooker Tour since May", "fragment_from": 1999, "fragment_to": 2087, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://bettingnews.baroneracing.com/2026/10/northern-ireland-open-snooker-2026", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Kieran Burke", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "e04e9223353aad99c76baa22e9675cde30eb90e0c028778874faea402a338479", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:24.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:31.100Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:24.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:24.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:31.100Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-e2c032a817cae04075835281", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-e2c032a817cae04075835281", "quote_text": "Should he take his place in the draw, O’Sullivan will face Ka Wai Cheung in the opening round.", "fragment_from": 1869, "fragment_to": 1963, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://bettingnews.baroneracing.com/2026/10/northern-ireland-open-snooker-2026", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Kieran Burke", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "e04e9223353aad99c76baa22e9675cde30eb90e0c028778874faea402a338479", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:24.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:31.100Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:24.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:24.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-15T07:44:31.100Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null } ], "excluded_from_feed": { "ads": 3, "service": 4, "ruleset_version": "3" }, "standing": null, "retro": { "restored_total": 16, "of_them_archived_pre_match": 4, "found_post_match": 12, "of_them_source_reported": 0, "live_count": 9, "date_count": 7, "span_from": "2025-09-17", "span_to": "2026-08-31", "line_text": "restored history: 16, of which pre-match archive 4", "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League, League Cup, Champions League and Europa League matches between 17 September 2025 and 31 August 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 16. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 4. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 12. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.", "precision": { "n": 16, "share": "0.5625" }, "series_list": [ { "code_name": "retro_author_price", "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price", "n": 16, "roi": "24.1875", "ci_low": "-23.0000", "ci_high": "113.0000", "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "cause": null }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing", "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price", "n": 0, "roi": null, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "data_status": "unknown", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "cause": "no restored pick with this price" }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm", "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "n": 13, "roi": "12.0000", "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "cause": null }, { "code_name": "retro_derived_sm", "display_name": "Restored score forecast: result implied by the score, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "n": 1, "roi": "48.0000", "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "cause": null } ], "clv": { "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above" }, "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "leagues": [ "Premier League", "League Cup", "Champions League", "Europa League" ], "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 6 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 11 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged.", "score_accuracy": { "n": 1, "share": "0.0" } }, "late": null, "price_vs_market": { "contract_version": "1", "threshold_percent": "5", "rows": [ { "basis": "snapshot", "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)", "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick", "compared": 7, "above": 0, "above_share_percent": "0.0", "below": 1, "within": 6, "median_difference_percent": "0.6", "not_comparable": 0, "disputed": 0, "status": "calculated" } ], "examples": [ { "url": "/authors/kieran-burke/picks/6/#pick-n-8ebeb86f8bdcb15a79bd6a86", "basis": "snapshot", "stated": "4.75", "market": "5.65", "difference_percent": "-15.9" } ], "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way." }, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "bettingnews.baroneracing.com", "url": "https://bettingnews.baroneracing.com/2026/11/everton-v-coventry-match-preview-team-news-predicted-lineups-betting-tips" }, "observed_from": "2026-09-28", "observed_to": "2026-11-05", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "restored": true, "headline_kind": "historical_simulation", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 3, "matches": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -14000, "staked_hundredths": 30000, "return_percent": "-46.67", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2026-05-20", "period_to": "2026-05-20", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "short_history": true, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 3 settled archived picks by Kieran Burke from copies archived before kick-off, across 1 match on 20 May 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 1 of 3 settled archived picks. Live record so far: won 3 of 7 settled live picks at our recorded market price. Of the 108 predictions we hold for Kieran Burke, 75 are linked to matches: 25 were recorded by us before kick-off, 4 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 46 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled archived picks", "value": "3", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": null }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "1", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "−140 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "value": "−46.7%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": null } ], "limitations": [ "Most of this history was found after the matches. Of the 13 selections in this historical price series, 3 have a pre-match archive copy and 10 were first found after the match.", "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included." ], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": { "part": "live", "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.", "settled_picks": 7, "matches": 7, "match_dates": 6, "period_from": "2026-10-20", "period_to": "2026-11-06", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": -8053, "low": { "date": "2026-10-30", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -18750, "after_picks": 4 }, "high": { "date": "2026-10-20", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 11250, "after_picks": 1 }, "line_drawn": false, "steps": [ { "date": "2026-10-20", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 11250, "n": 1, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-23", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 1250, "n": 2, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-30", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -18750, "n": 4, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-11-02", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -4950, "n": 5, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-11-03", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -14950, "n": 6, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-11-06", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -8053, "n": 7, "picks": 1 } ] }, "archived": { "part": "archived", "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.", "settled_picks": 3, "matches": 1, "match_dates": 1, "period_from": "2026-05-20", "period_to": "2026-05-20", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": -14000, "low": { "date": "2026-05-20", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -14000, "after_picks": 3 }, "high": { "date": "2026-05-20", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -14000, "after_picks": 3 }, "line_drawn": false, "steps": [ { "date": "2026-05-20", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -14000, "n": 3, "picks": 3 } ] } }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record restored 3 settled archived picks by Kieran Burke from copies archived before kick-off, across 1 match on 20 May 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 1 of 3 settled archived picks. Live record so far: won 3 of 7 settled live picks at our recorded market price. Of the 108 predictions we hold for Kieran Burke, 75 are linked to matches: 25 were recorded by us before kick-off, 4 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 46 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/kieran-burke/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "retro-1.1" }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 108, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 33, "proven_predictions": 29, "proven_checked": 29, "proven_measured": 13, "proven_dates": 16, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 25, "checked": 25, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": { "settled_picks": 7, "void": 0, "matches": 7, "net_points_hundredths": -8053, "staked_hundredths": 70000, "return_percent": "-11.50", "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval", "period_from": "2026-10-20", "period_to": "2026-11-06", "method_version": "2.2", "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0", "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0", "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 3 }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "author_price", "picks": 7, "return_main_percent": "-11.50", "return_other_percent": "-11.43", "settled_excluding_void": 7, "net_main_points_hundredths": -8053, "net_other_points_hundredths": -8000, "period_from": "2026-10-20", "period_to": "2026-11-06" }, { "price": "Closing price", "series_code": "closing_live", "picks": 3, "return_main_percent": "106.49", "return_other_percent": "106.51", "settled_excluding_void": 3, "net_main_points_hundredths": 31947, "net_other_points_hundredths": 31952, "period_from": "2026-10-20", "period_to": "2026-11-06" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 3, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": 0.0, "outcome_checked": 3, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": 0.0, "baseline_matches": 2, "baseline_distinct_matches": 2, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 0.0, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": 0.0, "price_basis": "our pre-match snapshot", "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [ "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.", "0 of 3 score forecasts named the exact score.", "The result implied by the named score was right in 0 of 2 matches; the market favourite was right in 0 of the same 2 matches.", "A pre-match market favourite is known for 2 of 3 forecasts; the comparison uses only those.", "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.", "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)." ] }, "eligible": { "checked": 25, "priced": 7 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 7, "won": 3, "won_percent": "42.9", "implied_percent": "42.2", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Match result", "won": 1, "picks": 3, "implied_percent": "46.1" }, { "market": "Result and both teams to score", "won": 0, "picks": 2, "implied_percent": "34.2" }, { "market": "Draw no bet", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "42.0" }, { "market": "Over/under goals", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "47.1" } ] }, "reviewed_after": { "predictions": 15, "right": 2, "wrong": 13, "other": 0 } }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 4, "checked": 4, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": { "settled_picks": 3, "void": 0, "matches": 1, "net_points_hundredths": -14000, "staked_hundredths": 30000, "return_percent": "-46.67", "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval", "period_from": "2026-05-20", "period_to": "2026-05-20", "method_version": "retro-1.1" }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "retro_author_price", "picks": 3, "return_main_percent": "-46.67", "return_other_percent": "-45.33", "settled_excluding_void": 3, "net_main_points_hundredths": -14000, "net_other_points_hundredths": -13600, "period_from": "2026-05-20", "period_to": "2026-05-20" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 4, "priced": 3 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 3, "won": 1, "won_percent": "33.3", "implied_percent": "47.3", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Both teams to score", "won": 0, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "51.3" }, { "market": "Match result", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "62.5" }, { "market": "Result and both teams to score", "won": 0, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "28.2" } ] } }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 46, "checked": 13, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": { "settled_picks": 10, "void": 0, "matches": 7, "net_points_hundredths": 29600, "staked_hundredths": 100000, "return_percent": "29.60", "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval", "period_from": "2025-09-17", "period_to": "2026-08-31", "method_version": "retro-1.1" }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "retro_author_price", "picks": 10, "return_main_percent": "29.60", "return_other_percent": "34.80", "settled_excluding_void": 10, "net_main_points_hundredths": 29600, "net_other_points_hundredths": 34800, "period_from": "2025-09-17", "period_to": "2026-08-31" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 1, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": 0.0, "outcome_checked": 1, "outcome_hits": 1, "outcome_rate": 100.0, "baseline_matches": 1, "baseline_distinct_matches": 1, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 1, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 100.0, "favourite_hits": 1, "favourite_rate": 100.0, "price_basis": "last pre-match archive price", "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [ "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to this score forecast.", "0 of 1 score forecast named the exact score.", "The result implied by the named score was right in 1 of 1 match; the market favourite was right in 1 of the same match.", "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).", "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).", "These forecasts were found after the match; when they were made depends on the date the source gives." ] }, "eligible": { "checked": 13, "priced": 10 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 10, "won": 6, "won_percent": "60.0", "implied_percent": "38.1", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Over/under goals", "won": 4, "picks": 6, "implied_percent": "40.0" }, { "market": "Double chance", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "43.9" }, { "market": "Match result", "won": 0, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "20.8" }, { "market": "Result and both teams to score", "won": 0, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "34.7" }, { "market": "Win to nil", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "41.7" } ] } } ] }, "live_alongside": { "predictions": 25, "checked": 25, "settled": 7, "won": 3, "void": 0, "checked_won": 5, "checked_settled": 25, "threshold": 10, "text": "Live record so far: won 3 of 7 settled live picks at our recorded market price." }, "headline_record_ids": [ "n-24c155519f933c9b3af22b93", "n-70409ef490ab25c592055e75", "n-de0ad6e4c2e31828f7381fb8" ], "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 20 May 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1", "record_from": "2025-09-17", "record_to": "2026-11-06" }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-0781adfd80734ab491b83c61", "url": "/authors/kieran-burke/picks/7/#pick-n-0781adfd80734ab491b83c61", "match": "Everton v Coventry City", "match_url": "/football/matches/everton-vs-coventry-city-2026-11-06/", "kickoff": "2026-11-06T20:00:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": 30.8, "market_code": "1x2", "author_said": "1X2, match result: Everton at 1.7", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Won", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "3-1", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": 6897, "series_code": "market_price", "series_short": "odds snapshot", "author_price": "1.7", "settled_price": "1.6897", "published_at": "2026-11-05T13:12:54.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-11-05T13:14:31.177Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": { "outcome": "1", "price": "1.6897", "result": "Won", "points_hundredths": 6897, "picked_favourite": true }, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-0781adfd80734ab491b83c61", "quote_text": "BEST BET: Everton to win (7/10)", "fragment_from": 4080, "fragment_to": 4111, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://bettingnews.baroneracing.com/2026/11/everton-v-coventry-match-preview-team-news-predicted-lineups-betting-tips", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Kieran Burke", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "b97fa7fdb2ac0061ccc66a177b049030ed306b7e08d7b90b9a6257ff976241d4", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-05T13:12:54.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-05T13:14:31.177Z", "executed_at": "2026-11-05T13:16:40.836Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-58bcaa8396b1", "display_name": "Everton — Coventry City", "competition_name": "Premier League", "starts_at": "2026-11-06T20:00:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/everton-vs-coventry-city-2026-11-06/", "scoreline": "3-1", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "outcome_label": "Everton", "odds_set": { "by_author": "1.7", "our_snapshot": "1.6897", "our_snapshot_at": "2026-11-05T13:09:34.620Z", "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot", "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "win", "simulation_change_hundredths": 6897, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-05T13:12:54.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-11-05T13:12:54.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-05T13:14:31.177Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Everton", "author_odds": "1.7", "market_key": "1x2", "choice_key": "1", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "1X2, match result: Everton at 1.7" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "win", "scoreline": "3-1", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Won: the final score was Everton 3-1 Coventry City." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "5c6a54fbc46940058afdfefde1bf22e5ed6118a3856552986a0bdfcc4161efce", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Everton", "decimal_odds": "1.7", "odds_role": "author_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 7000, "executed_at": "2026-11-05T13:16:37.031Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "2b28f7f472fbe63915afdbb09efbd72129b6806b8fe09a06c1bdb261a97b8c93", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Everton", "decimal_odds": "1.6897", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 6897, "executed_at": "2026-11-05T13:16:40.836Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Kieran Burke", "publisher": "bettingnews.baroneracing.com", "forecaster": "Kieran Burke", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://bettingnews.baroneracing.com/2026/11/everton-v-coventry-match-preview-team-news-predicted-lineups-betting-tips", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "Everton to win" } }, { "record_id": "n-3d27416551117136114553e9", "url": "/authors/kieran-burke/picks/7/#pick-n-3d27416551117136114553e9", "match": "FC Barcelona v Aston Villa", "match_url": "/football/matches/fc-barcelona-vs-aston-villa-2026-11-03/", "kickoff": "2026-11-03T20:00:00.000Z", "competition": "UEFA Champions League", "lead_hours": 31.1, "market_code": "both_teams_score_and_result", "author_said": "Match result and both teams to score: FC Barcelona win, both teams to score: yes at 2", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Lost", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "3-0", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": -10000, "series_code": "market_price", "series_short": "odds snapshot", "author_price": "2", "settled_price": "1.9750", "published_at": "2026-11-02T12:49:34.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-11-02T12:54:30.868Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-3d27416551117136114553e9", "quote_text": "BEST BET: Barcelona to win & BTTS (EVS)", "fragment_from": 5074, "fragment_to": 5113, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://bettingnews.baroneracing.com/2026/11/barcelona-v-aston-villa-match-preview-team-news-predicted-lineups-betting-tips", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Kieran Burke", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "47a0f1a64446932dafdd456af3a3266ef4e610e6362efffc900e5c4adbc29df3", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-02T12:49:34.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-02T12:54:30.868Z", "executed_at": "2026-11-02T18:39:23.615Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-f4b8886fe09c", "display_name": "FC Barcelona — Aston Villa", "competition_name": "UEFA Champions League", "starts_at": "2026-11-03T20:00:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/fc-barcelona-vs-aston-villa-2026-11-03/", "scoreline": "3-0", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Match result and both teams to score", "outcome_label": "FC Barcelona win, both teams to score: yes", "odds_set": { "by_author": "2", "our_snapshot": "1.9750", "our_snapshot_at": "2026-11-02T12:54:02.842Z", "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot", "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-02T12:49:34.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-11-02T12:49:34.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-02T12:54:30.868Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Match result and both teams to score", "choice": "FC Barcelona win, both teams to score: yes", "author_odds": "2", "market_key": "both_teams_score_and_result", "choice_key": "1-yes", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Match result and both teams to score: FC Barcelona win, both teams to score: yes at 2" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "3-0", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Lost: the final score was FC Barcelona 3-0 Aston Villa." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "653ac4d499e328d5a0637c6cfd82e512d2ebac9b2356bb7653c7e62e92eb696f", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Match result and both teams to score", "choice": "FC Barcelona win, both teams to score: yes", "decimal_odds": "2", "odds_role": "author_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-11-02T18:39:21.847Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "b6f167f56d94433740ad311114a59487470d6ffd096f9a33b44a08b23306910b", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Match result and both teams to score", "choice": "FC Barcelona win, both teams to score: yes", "decimal_odds": "1.9750", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-11-02T18:39:23.615Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Kieran Burke", "publisher": "bettingnews.baroneracing.com", "forecaster": "Kieran Burke", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate 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date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-c6ed09846e66505dc0d8ea8e", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Over 3.5 goals in Chelsea v Brighton\n\nBryan Mbeumo anytime scorer for Man United v Ipswich\n\nOdds: 4.39/1", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-08-29T13:04:36.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-01T00:33:37.150Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-5f315a030acdfaf2829cf9c7", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals (7/10)", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-08-25T08:58:47.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-01T00:33:40.121Z", "origin": "Found after the match; 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date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-c1fda66331eeeb5cb18fa1ec", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "defending Champion Zhao Xintong goes into the 2026 Halo World Championship on top form, and is a clear outright favourite at 15/8.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-04-16T09:26:18.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-01T00:33:53.244Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-a43b31404231cc6c0dd7d391", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Match Result: Manchester United @ 10/13", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-12-15T09:57:39.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-01T00:33:56.600Z", "origin": "Found after the match; 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date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-599aa239b1f911348ac8d241", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Cole Palmer to score first has been boosted online to 15/2 from 13/2!", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-09-17T14:21:55.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-01T00:33:58.896Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null } ], "lead_time": { "contract_version": 1, "threshold_hours": 2.0, "picks": 55, "before_kickoff": 34, "after_kickoff": 21, "at_least_2h": 34, "share_2h_plus": 61.8, "median_hours": 27.4, "min_hours": 9.1, "max_hours": 50.2, "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off." }, "baseline": { "contract_version": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "rule": "recorded-line-1.0", "state": "settled", "picks": 3, "settled_picks_all": 8, "excluded": { "market_without_favourite": 3, "no_recorded_line": 2, "favourite_not_settled": 0 }, "staked_hundredths": 30000, "author_net_hundredths": 8147, "favourite_net_hundredths": -13103, "difference_hundredths": 21250, "author_return_percent": 27.16, "favourite_return_percent": -43.68, "author_hit_rate": 66.7, "favourite_hit_rate": 33.3, "picked_favourite_share": 33.3, "by_market": [ { "market_code": "1x2", "picks": 2, "staked_hundredths": 20000, "author_net_hundredths": -3103, "favourite_net_hundredths": -3103, "author_hits": 1, "favourite_hits": 1, "picked_favourite": 1, "author_return_percent": -15.52, "favourite_return_percent": -15.52 }, { "market_code": "total", "picks": 1, "staked_hundredths": 10000, "author_net_hundredths": 11250, "favourite_net_hundredths": -10000, "author_hits": 1, "favourite_hits": 0, "picked_favourite": 0, "author_return_percent": 112.5, "favourite_return_percent": -100.0 } ], "return_over_time": [ { "kickoff": "2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 11250, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -10000 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-23T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 1250, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -20000 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-06T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 8147, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -13103 } ], "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out." }, "pagination": { "per_page": 20, "total": 108, "pages": 7, "page_urls": [ "/authors/kieran-burke/", "/authors/kieran-burke/picks/2/", "/authors/kieran-burke/picks/3/", "/authors/kieran-burke/picks/4/", "/authors/kieran-burke/picks/5/", "/authors/kieran-burke/picks/6/", "/authors/kieran-burke/picks/7/" ], "groups": { "settled": 25, "pending": 0, "excluded": 83 }, "continuation": "by_time", "page": 1, "first": 1, "last": 20, "author_url": "/authors/kieran-burke/", "current": false }, "title_tag": "Kieran Burke Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources", "calculator": null, "person": { "person_id": "o-10648387bd9db6ca839f0a3b", "type_code": "individual", "name_shown": "Kieran Burke", "main_entity": "e-10648387bd9db6ca839f0a3b", "identity": { "status": "not_verified", "is_verified": false, "when": null, "source_list": [] }, "platform_list": [ { "entity_ref": "e-10648387bd9db6ca839f0a3b", "medium": "bettingnews.baroneracing.com", "channel": "author pages", "domain": "bettingnews.baroneracing.com", "source_info": null, "byline": "Kieran Burke", "url": null, "summary": { "statements": 450, "predictions": 108, "settled_picks": 3, "headline_kind": "historical_simulation", "return_percent": -46.67, "headline_part": "archived", "period_from": "2026-09-28", "period_to": "2026-11-05" } } ], "previously": [], "trust_tier": "probation" }, "data_revision": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.2", "updated": "2026-10-09", "current_release": "2026-11-07.2", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "price_rule": "reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "sample": { "settled_picks": 3, "matches": 1, "void": 0, "period_from": "2026-05-20", "period_to": "2026-05-20", "composition_hash": "66d756ce2a4f102c48e7e7f72a1b01d7eead206092d3cdfe5a4d5a95b49ee7d9" }, "changes_url": "#changes", "corrections_url": "/corrections/" }, "number_changes": [ { "id": "zc-1c80ac8aec402c50a501", "at": "2026-10-09T12:49:36.723Z", "data_version": "2026-10-09.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "url": "/authors/kieran-burke/", "category": "method_changed", "category_words": "Method changed", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "return_percent": "15.85", "settled_picks": 17, "matches": 10, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_author_price", "price_rule": "author's stated odds, restored", "method_version": "retro-1.0", "composition_hash": "1fa4cc40689392ff199d589b16dab4ad02aa12d89314497c15f800155bde396c", "text": "+15.85% on 17 settled picks across 10 matches · author's stated odds, restored · method retro-1.0" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.2", "return_percent": "-46.67", "settled_picks": 3, "matches": 1, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "66d756ce2a4f102c48e7e7f72a1b01d7eead206092d3cdfe5a4d5a95b49ee7d9", "text": "−140.00 points on 3 settled picks across 1 match · historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, a historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first found after the match no longer enter the headline number. Was: author's stated odds, restored (17 settled picks). Now: historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (3 settled picks).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 0, "removed": 14, "changed": 1 }, "correction_id": "i-4960a29a8a3eb8d127bb" }, { "id": "zc-6cf5e764d700b8c607c2", "at": "2026-10-09T11:08:54.367Z", "data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-09-30.1", "url": "/authors/kieran-burke/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": null, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "return_percent": "15.85", "settled_picks": 17, "matches": 10, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_author_price", "price_rule": "author's stated odds, restored", "method_version": "retro-1.0", "composition_hash": "1fa4cc40689392ff199d589b16dab4ad02aa12d89314497c15f800155bde396c", "text": "+15.85% on 17 settled picks across 10 matches · author's stated odds, restored · method retro-1.0" }, "reason": 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