Ayaz Karacan: football tipster record — archive reconstruction

Where Ayaz Karacan publishes

Published under this name on futboltr.com.

Record card

To link to this record from your site or bio, copy the line below. It states only the facts of this record.

<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/authors/ayaz-karacan/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 11 October 2026 · 1,037 predictions · last change 12 October 2026</a>

Archived before kick-off · 199 settled archived picks · +3.3%

Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.

206 predictions; 199 checked against the final score.

199 settled selections across 199 matches, 14 February 2025 – 11 January 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: +3.3% (95.0% interval −9.0% to +15.8%).

Eligible prices were available for 199 of the 199 selections checked against the result.

Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 119 of 199 decided picks (59.8%); the prices of the same picks implied 58.0%.

By market: Over/under goals 54 of 88 (prices implied 60.5%); Match result 38 of 62 (prices implied 55.2%); Both teams to score 27 of 49 (prices implied 57.0%).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Source-reported history · 785 settled source-reported picks · −1.9%

The time and the pick are known only from the source’s own history; it is the basis of the record check and never part of the evidenced total.

831 predictions; 789 checked against the final score.

785 settled selections across 784 matches, 3 February 2025 – 11 January 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −1.9% (95.0% interval −8.1% to +4.5%).

Eligible prices were available for 785 of the 789 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 448 of 785 decided picks (57.1%); the prices of the same picks implied 58.3%.

By market: Over/under goals 187 of 341 (prices implied 58.6%); Both teams to score 142 of 243 (prices implied 58.6%); Match result 119 of 201 (prices implied 57.5%).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.

What kind of number is this?

Measured

Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; the time of each pre-match web-archive copy.

Stated

The author’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.

Calculated

Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.

Unknown

Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published.

The four data statuses

What this record covers

We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything Ayaz Karacan has published.

Source we monitor

futboltr.com

Channels

website

Watched by us

11–12 October 2026

Earlier entries

restored from archives, back to 3 February 2025

Author's response

No author's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.

Respond or request a correction

Coverage and exclusions

One set of records: the author’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.

Statements

1,037

Predictions

1,037

Qualifying picks

1,037

Settled picks

988

Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.

How this return was calculated

Every settled pick in “Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)” is a stake of 100 points at the last pre-match archive price, a reconstruction at archived prices on picks archived before kick-off only. The net result (+663.50 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 199 settled archived picks; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (19,900 points), void picks excluded. Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.

Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.

Separate comparison window — last 90 days: the return appears from the first settled pick in this window (method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted

Changes to this record

The headline number above is (reconstruction method 1.1, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only). When it changes, the earlier figure stays here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.

Data corrected · 7 November 2026

Before

+3.2% on 201 settled picks across 201 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

+3.3% on 199 settled picks across 199 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 2 picks left the headline sample.

Data corrected · 19 October 2026

Before

+0.7% on 206 settled picks across 206 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

After

+3.2% on 201 settled picks across 201 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

Data corrected: 5 picks left the headline sample.

Coverage extended · 13 October 2026

Before

no published headline number

After

+0.7% on 206 settled picks across 206 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

First headline number for this record: 206 settled picks in the series “reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only”.

Who this is

Last recorded by us

12 October 2026, 26 days before this page's data date

Observed

11 October 2026 — 12 October 2026

Channels

website

The same data, machine-readable

• Page data (JSON)
• Recorded picks (CSV)

From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.

Share cards of this record (2)

• Bankroll card — Ayaz Karacan
• Said → happened — Ayaz Karacan

For the author of this record (1)

• Your record on Forecast Record: Ayaz Karacan

Check us

• How we count
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• What we collect
• Corrections log
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Record definitions and related evidence

• Return over time
• Recorded picks and results
• Matches
• How this return was calculated
• 52