Armando Areniello: football tipster record — archive reconstruction

Where Armando Areniello publishes

Published under this name on bottadiculo.it.

Record card

To link to this record from your site or bio, copy the line below. It states only the facts of this record.

<a href="https://forecastrecord.com/authors/armando-areniello/">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 11 October 2026 · 2,059 predictions · last change 12 October 2026</a>

Archived before kick-off · 342 settled archived picks · −1.1%

Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.

345 predictions; 343 checked against the final score.

342 settled selections across 139 matches, 29 May 2025 – 8 May 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −1.1% (95.0% interval −11.9% to +9.4%).

Eligible prices were available for 342 of the 343 selections checked against the result.

Eligible price: a market price that meets the price rule of its part of the record; the return is calculated on picks with one. Definition.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 202 of 342 decided picks (59.1%); the prices of the same picks implied 60.3%.

By market: Over/under goals 64 of 128 (prices implied 56.1%); Double chance 57 of 78 (prices implied 75.7%); Both teams to score 42 of 75 (prices implied 53.5%); Match result 33 of 55 (prices implied 57.0%); Corners over/under 3 of 3 (prices implied 71.9%); Other markets 3 of 3 (prices implied 57.2%).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

Source-reported history · 1,691 settled source-reported picks · −0.1%

The time and the pick are known only from the source’s own history; it is the basis of the record check and never part of the evidenced total.

1,714 predictions; 1,699 checked against the final score.

1,691 settled selections across 684 matches, 9 May 2025 – 29 May 2026.

Reconstructed at archived prices: −0.1% (95.0% interval −4.9% to +4.6%).

Eligible prices were available for 1,691 of the 1,699 selections checked against the result.

Prices are the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), bookmaker margin included.

Outcome accuracy vs implied by prices

Won 1,027 of 1,691 decided picks (60.7%); the prices of the same picks implied 60.9%.

By market: Over/under goals 342 of 603 (prices implied 58.8%); Double chance 281 of 369 (prices implied 74.4%); Match result 208 of 362 (prices implied 56.7%); Both teams to score 184 of 336 (prices implied 54.5%); Corners over/under 9 of 12 (prices implied 55.1%); Other markets 3 of 9 (prices implied 65.0%).

The implied share is the average of 1 ÷ price; it includes the bookmaker margin, so it is slightly above a fair chance. Markets with low prices are won more often, so a share of picks won says little on its own.

An author-quoted price is the price the article offered; the headline return uses the market price in the last column.

What kind of number is this?

Measured

Settled by us from the final score. Supporting evidence: Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Here: the moment we first captured each prediction; the time of each pre-match web-archive copy.

Stated

The author’s own claim, shown as published. Reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Here: the publication date a source page shows; the price an author quoted.

Calculated

Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Here: outcomes against the final score; returns, intervals and the share of picks won.

Unknown

Not established from the evidence available. Here: the market price at the moment a restored pick was published.

The four data statuses

What this record covers

We monitor the sources listed below. This is not a complete record of everything Armando Areniello has published.

Source we monitor

bottadiculo.it

Channels

website

Watched by us

11–12 October 2026

Earlier entries

restored from archives, back to 9 May 2025

Author's response

No author's response is published on this page. Responses are published word for word. Correction requests are checked, and every change is logged.

Respond or request a correction

Coverage and exclusions

One set of records: the author’s statements. Each count is a part of the one above it. What each word means · What coverage says.

Statements

2,059

Predictions

2,059

Qualifying picks

2,059

Settled picks

2,042

Here a pick counts as settled when it has a result at any recorded price; the numbers at the top use only the price rule of their own part of the record.

How this return was calculated

Every settled pick in “Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)” is a stake of 100 points at the last pre-match archive price, a reconstruction at archived prices on picks archived before kick-off only. The net result (−362 points) is the sum of the profit and loss of these 342 settled archived picks; the return is the net result divided by the total staked (34,200 points), void picks excluded. Definition of return on stakes · How a pick is settled.

Other prices of the same picks are compared row by row in each part of the record above; they are never added to this number.

Separate comparison window — last 90 days: the return appears from the first settled pick in this window (method v2.2). How comparison windows are counted

Changes to this record

The headline number above is (reconstruction method 1.1, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only). When it changes, the earlier figure stays here with the reason: new results, extended coverage, a correction or a method change. Corrections are also listed in the corrections log.

Coverage extended · 13 October 2026

Before

no published headline number

After

−1.1% on 342 settled picks across 139 matches · reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · Reconstruction method 1.1

First headline number for this record: 342 settled picks in the series “reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only”.

Who this is

Last recorded by us

12 October 2026, 26 days before this page's data date

Observed

11 October 2026 — 12 October 2026

Channels

website

The same data, machine-readable

• Page data (JSON)
• Recorded picks (CSV)

From the same snapshot as this page. A download includes the full machine list when the page shows a filtered view.

Share cards of this record (2)

• Bankroll card — Armando Areniello
• Said → happened — Armando Areniello

For the author of this record (1)

• Your record on Forecast Record: Armando Areniello

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Record definitions and related evidence

• Return over time
• Recorded picks and results
• Matches
• How this return was calculated
• 103