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 "heading": "Armando Areniello: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "342 settled picks by Armando Areniello archived before kick-off across 139 matches, 29 May 2025 – 8 May 2026: −1.1% reconstructed at archived prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record restored 342 settled archived picks by Armando Areniello from copies archived before kick-off, across 139 matches between 29 May 2025 and 8 May 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned −1.1% on the total staked. Of the 2,059 predictions we hold for Armando Areniello, 345 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 1,714 from the source’s own history. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
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  "data": "2026-11-07",
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   "added_on": "Added to our record on 12 Oct 2026",
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   ],
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   "added_on": "Added to our record on 12 Oct 2026",
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   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "Both teams to score",
    "choice": "yes",
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    "in_words": "Both teams to score: yes at 2.2"
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    "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Cagliari 0-1 SSC Napoli."
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     "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
     "choice": "under 2.5",
     "decimal_odds": "1.52",
     "odds_role": "author_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "win",
     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 5200,
     "executed_at": "2026-10-13T19:57:39.283Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    },
    {
     "operation_id": "86ed237e4dcf5de3af77dd9f3ca16d5c4b1b4fad01c6856cef003151767e5635",
     "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
     "choice": "under 2.5",
     "decimal_odds": "1.6000",
     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "win",
     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 6000,
     "executed_at": "2026-10-13T19:57:39.283Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Armando Areniello",
    "publisher": "Bottadiculo",
    "forecaster": "Armando Areniello",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.bottadiculo.it/pronostico-empoli-sampdoria-28-ottobre-2025-sfida-inedita-per-la-salvezza/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
    "verdict_line": null
   },
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-f67b4892a9928b4920665de1",
   "url": "/authors/armando-areniello/picks/101/#pick-n-f67b4892a9928b4920665de1",
   "quote_text": "No Gol\n\nSegno\n\n1.68",
   "fragment_from": 4376,
   "fragment_to": 4395,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.bottadiculo.it/pronostico-empoli-sampdoria-28-ottobre-2025-sfida-inedita-per-la-salvezza/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Armando Areniello",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "103d7129a1e1072295734d40671d737b3af13c45adf0167f6f44b5348865fdd2",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-12T21:36:52.034Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-10-13T19:57:39.240Z",
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": {
    "event_id": null,
    "display_name": "Empoli v Sampdoria",
    "competition_name": "Serie B",
    "starts_at": "2025-10-28T19:30:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "1-1"
   },
   "market_label": "Both teams to score",
   "outcome_label": "no",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "1.68",
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": "1.8000",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "loss",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": "ours",
   "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "archive_snapshot_at": "2025-10-28T03:24:11.000Z",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": null,
    "detected_at": "2026-10-12T21:36:52.034Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": "2025-10-28T03:24:11.000Z",
    "flags": [
     "no_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source states no publication date.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": "Added to our record on 12 Oct 2026",
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "Both teams to score",
    "choice": "no",
    "author_odds": "1.68",
    "market_key": "both_teams_score",
    "choice_key": "no",
    "period": "match",
    "line": null,
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "Both teams to score: no at 1.68"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "loss",
    "scoreline": "1-1",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Empoli 1-1 Sampdoria."
   },
   "settlements": [
    {
     "operation_id": "964c2ead1a1da3b3641587a521bdd0c0bfb5045d4e84ef3a356efb51d34ec5af",
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     "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Both teams to score",
     "choice": "no",
     "decimal_odds": "1.68",
     "odds_role": "author_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "loss",
     "result_words": "Lost",
     "change_hundredths": -10000,
     "executed_at": "2026-10-13T19:57:39.240Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    },
    {
     "operation_id": "61ee3cb580471f4f17e78a53d8dc72c8e97b32c6dab9a25f671e437b26af7ef1",
     "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Both teams to score",
     "choice": "no",
     "decimal_odds": "1.8000",
     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "loss",
     "result_words": "Lost",
     "change_hundredths": -10000,
     "executed_at": "2026-10-13T19:57:39.240Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Armando Areniello",
    "publisher": "Bottadiculo",
    "forecaster": "Armando Areniello",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.bottadiculo.it/pronostico-empoli-sampdoria-28-ottobre-2025-sfida-inedita-per-la-salvezza/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
    "verdict_line": null
   },
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-7084347b51b7810864005f69",
   "url": "/authors/armando-areniello/picks/101/#pick-n-7084347b51b7810864005f69",
   "quote_text": "1x\n\nSegno\n\n1.32",
   "fragment_from": 4329,
   "fragment_to": 4344,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.bottadiculo.it/pronostico-empoli-sampdoria-28-ottobre-2025-sfida-inedita-per-la-salvezza/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Armando Areniello",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "103d7129a1e1072295734d40671d737b3af13c45adf0167f6f44b5348865fdd2",
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   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-12T21:36:52.034Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-10-13T19:57:39.213Z",
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": {
    "event_id": null,
    "display_name": "Empoli v Sampdoria",
    "competition_name": "Serie B",
    "starts_at": "2025-10-28T19:30:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "1-1"
   },
   "market_label": "Double chance",
   "outcome_label": "Empoli or draw",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "1.32",
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": "1.3300",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "win",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": 3300,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": "ours",
   "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "archive_snapshot_at": "2025-10-28T03:24:11.000Z",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": null,
    "detected_at": "2026-10-12T21:36:52.034Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": "2025-10-28T03:24:11.000Z",
    "flags": [
     "no_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source states no publication date.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": "Added to our record on 12 Oct 2026",
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "Double chance",
    "choice": "Empoli or draw",
    "author_odds": "1.32",
    "market_key": "double_chance",
    "choice_key": "1X",
    "period": "match",
    "line": null,
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "Double chance: Empoli or draw at 1.32"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "win",
    "scoreline": "1-1",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "in_words": "Won: the final score was Empoli 1-1 Sampdoria."
   },
   "settlements": [
    {
     "operation_id": "23e583d75b788c51f75d40b3c6af9d2f9feae8b4bb1de80dec4a95c61e0bbe13",
     "series_key": "retro_author_price",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Double chance",
     "choice": "Empoli or draw",
     "decimal_odds": "1.32",
     "odds_role": "author_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "win",
     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 3200,
     "executed_at": "2026-10-13T19:57:39.213Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "on_claim_market": true,
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    },
    {
     "operation_id": "b5305c86d7b0954d9941aa468cab6920ca83b4382b560f020a78c3f1f534ca6e",
     "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Double chance",
     "choice": "Empoli or draw",
     "decimal_odds": "1.3300",
     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "win",
     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 3300,
     "executed_at": "2026-10-13T19:57:39.213Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
     "on_claim_market": true,
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   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Armando Areniello",
    "publisher": "Bottadiculo",
    "forecaster": "Armando Areniello",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.bottadiculo.it/pronostico-empoli-sampdoria-28-ottobre-2025-sfida-inedita-per-la-salvezza/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
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   },
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "standing": null,
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 2042,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 343,
  "found_post_match": 0,
  "of_them_source_reported": 1699,
  "live_count": 0,
  "date_count": 166,
  "span_from": "2025-05-09",
  "span_to": "2026-05-29",
  "line_text": "restored history: 2042, of which pre-match archive 343",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Serie A and Serie B matches between 9 May 2025 and 29 May 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 2042. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 343. Taken from the source’s own published history, published before kick-off by the source’s own date: 1699. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 0. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 2042,
   "share": "0.6053"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 2041,
    "roi": "-1.3449",
    "ci_low": "-5.6457",
    "ci_high": "2.7800",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "n": 0,
    "roi": null,
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": "no restored pick with this price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 2033,
    "roi": "-0.2577",
    "ci_low": "-4.6279",
    "ci_high": "3.8211",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Serie A",
   "Serie B"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 0 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 2042 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged."
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": null,
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "bottadiculo.it",
   "url": "https://www.bottadiculo.it/pronostico-venezia-palermo-8-maggio-2026/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-10-11",
  "observed_to": "2026-10-12",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
  "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
  "restored": true,
  "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
  "headline_part": "archived",
  "settled_picks": 342,
  "matches": 139,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -36200,
  "staked_hundredths": 3420000,
  "return_percent": "-1.06",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2025-05-29",
  "period_to": "2026-05-08",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "short_history": false,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 342 settled archived picks by Armando Areniello from copies archived before kick-off, across 139 matches between 29 May 2025 and 8 May 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned −1.1% on the total staked. Of the 2,059 predictions we hold for Armando Areniello, 345 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 1,714 from the source’s own history. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled archived picks",
    "value": "342",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "139",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−362 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "value": "−1.1%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": "95% interval −11.9% to +9.4%"
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "Most of this history comes from the source’s own published record: 1,714 predictions dated by the source. 1,691 of them are settled in a historical price series; titles and rankings use the live record.",
   "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [
   {
    "date": "2025-05-29",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 24050,
    "n": 3
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-06-01",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 4050,
    "n": 5
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-23",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 36600,
    "n": 15
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-24",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 15450,
    "n": 29
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-25",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 18250,
    "n": 36
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-29",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -6250,
    "n": 44
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-30",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -18450,
    "n": 56
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-31",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -15350,
    "n": 62
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-09-12",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -12550,
    "n": 64
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-09-13",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -45800,
    "n": 77
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-09-14",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7450,
    "n": 93
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-09-15",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -43250,
    "n": 98
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-09-19",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -63500,
    "n": 106
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-09-20",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -24700,
    "n": 124
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-09-21",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20350,
    "n": 139
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-09-22",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7350,
    "n": 141
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-09-26",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 24200,
    "n": 144
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-09-27",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -12750,
    "n": 166
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-09-28",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 10050,
    "n": 178
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-09-29",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -2350,
    "n": 182
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-09-30",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20450,
    "n": 196
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-10-01",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -50450,
    "n": 199
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-10-03",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -80450,
    "n": 202
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-10-04",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -36100,
    "n": 222
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-10-05",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 23700,
    "n": 238
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-10-20",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 33700,
    "n": 240
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-10-24",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 23450,
    "n": 244
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-10-26",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 22650,
    "n": 260
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-10-28",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 9750,
    "n": 279
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-10-29",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 32800,
    "n": 294
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-10-30",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 43900,
    "n": 297
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-11-09",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 37100,
    "n": 299
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-11-23",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 34600,
    "n": 301
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-11-30",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 14600,
    "n": 303
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-12-06",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 11600,
    "n": 305
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-12-08",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 8800,
    "n": 307
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-12-27",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 13550,
    "n": 308
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-12-28",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 13550,
    "n": 314
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-01-10",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -6450,
    "n": 316
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-01-11",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 6050,
    "n": 318
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-01-19",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -450,
    "n": 320
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-01-25",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 2500,
    "n": 323
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-02-08",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -17500,
    "n": 325
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-02-09",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 2350,
    "n": 328
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-02-20",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 1350,
    "n": 331
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-03-03",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 13700,
    "n": 334
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-03-08",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -3300,
    "n": 337
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-03-20",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -16200,
    "n": 340
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-05-08",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -36200,
    "n": 342
   }
  ],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": null,
   "archived": {
    "part": "archived",
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
    "settled_picks": 342,
    "matches": 139,
    "match_dates": 49,
    "period_from": "2025-05-29",
    "period_to": "2026-05-08",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -36200,
    "low": {
     "date": "2025-10-03",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -80450,
     "after_picks": 202
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2025-10-30",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 43900,
     "after_picks": 297
    },
    "line_drawn": true,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2025-05-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 24050,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-06-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 4050,
      "n": 5,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-23",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 36600,
      "n": 15,
      "picks": 10
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-24",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 15450,
      "n": 29,
      "picks": 14
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-25",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 18250,
      "n": 36,
      "picks": 7
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -6250,
      "n": 44,
      "picks": 8
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-30",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -18450,
      "n": 56,
      "picks": 12
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-31",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -15350,
      "n": 62,
      "picks": 6
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-09-12",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -12550,
      "n": 64,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-09-13",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -45800,
      "n": 77,
      "picks": 13
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-09-14",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7450,
      "n": 93,
      "picks": 16
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-09-15",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -43250,
      "n": 98,
      "picks": 5
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-09-19",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -63500,
      "n": 106,
      "picks": 8
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-09-20",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -24700,
      "n": 124,
      "picks": 18
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-09-21",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20350,
      "n": 139,
      "picks": 15
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-09-22",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7350,
      "n": 141,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-09-26",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 24200,
      "n": 144,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-09-27",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -12750,
      "n": 166,
      "picks": 22
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-09-28",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 10050,
      "n": 178,
      "picks": 12
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-09-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -2350,
      "n": 182,
      "picks": 4
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-09-30",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20450,
      "n": 196,
      "picks": 14
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -50450,
      "n": 199,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-03",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -80450,
      "n": 202,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-04",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -36100,
      "n": 222,
      "picks": 20
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-05",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 23700,
      "n": 238,
      "picks": 16
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-20",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 33700,
      "n": 240,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-24",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 23450,
      "n": 244,
      "picks": 4
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-26",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 22650,
      "n": 260,
      "picks": 16
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-28",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 9750,
      "n": 279,
      "picks": 19
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 32800,
      "n": 294,
      "picks": 15
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-30",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 43900,
      "n": 297,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-11-09",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 37100,
      "n": 299,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-11-23",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 34600,
      "n": 301,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-11-30",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 14600,
      "n": 303,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-12-06",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 11600,
      "n": 305,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-12-08",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 8800,
      "n": 307,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-12-27",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 13550,
      "n": 308,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-12-28",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 13550,
      "n": 314,
      "picks": 6
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-01-10",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -6450,
      "n": 316,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-01-11",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 6050,
      "n": 318,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-01-19",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -450,
      "n": 320,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-01-25",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 2500,
      "n": 323,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-02-08",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -17500,
      "n": 325,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-02-09",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 2350,
      "n": 328,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-02-20",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 1350,
      "n": 331,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-03-03",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 13700,
      "n": 334,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-03-08",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -3300,
      "n": 337,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-03-20",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -16200,
      "n": 340,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-05-08",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -36200,
      "n": 342,
      "picks": 2
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record restored 342 settled archived picks by Armando Areniello from copies archived before kick-off, across 139 matches between 29 May 2025 and 8 May 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned −1.1% on the total staked. Of the 2,059 predictions we hold for Armando Areniello, 345 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 1,714 from the source’s own history. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/armando-areniello/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "retro-1.1"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 2059,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 0,
   "proven_predictions": 345,
   "proven_checked": 343,
   "proven_measured": 342,
   "proven_dates": 49,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 345,
     "checked": 343,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 342,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 139,
      "net_points_hundredths": -36200,
      "staked_hundredths": 3420000,
      "return_percent": "-1.06",
      "interval_low": "-11.87",
      "interval_high": "9.38",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2025-05-29",
      "period_to": "2026-05-08",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 342,
       "return_main_percent": "-1.06",
       "return_other_percent": "-2.72",
       "settled_excluding_void": 342,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -36200,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -93100,
       "period_from": "2025-05-29",
       "period_to": "2026-05-08"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 343,
      "priced": 342
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 342,
      "won": 202,
      "won_percent": "59.1",
      "implied_percent": "60.3",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 64,
        "picks": 128,
        "implied_percent": "56.1"
       },
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 57,
        "picks": 78,
        "implied_percent": "75.7"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 42,
        "picks": 75,
        "implied_percent": "53.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 33,
        "picks": 55,
        "implied_percent": "57.0"
       },
       {
        "market": "Corners over/under",
        "won": 3,
        "picks": 3,
        "implied_percent": "71.9"
       },
       {
        "market": "Other markets",
        "won": 3,
        "picks": 3,
        "implied_percent": "57.2"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "source_reported",
     "title": "Source-reported history",
     "explanation": "The time and the pick are known only from the source’s own history; it is the basis of the record check and never part of the evidenced total.",
     "predictions": 1714,
     "checked": 1699,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 1691,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 684,
      "net_points_hundredths": -16200,
      "staked_hundredths": 16910000,
      "return_percent": "-0.10",
      "interval_low": "-4.92",
      "interval_high": "4.56",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2025-05-09",
      "period_to": "2026-05-29",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 1690,
       "return_main_percent": "-0.04",
       "return_other_percent": "-1.35",
       "settled_excluding_void": 1690,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -6200,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -227400,
       "period_from": "2025-05-09",
       "period_to": "2026-05-29"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 1699,
      "priced": 1691
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 1691,
      "won": 1027,
      "won_percent": "60.7",
      "implied_percent": "60.9",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 342,
        "picks": 603,
        "implied_percent": "58.8"
       },
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 281,
        "picks": 369,
        "implied_percent": "74.4"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 208,
        "picks": 362,
        "implied_percent": "56.7"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 184,
        "picks": 336,
        "implied_percent": "54.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Corners over/under",
        "won": 9,
        "picks": 12,
        "implied_percent": "55.1"
       },
       {
        "market": "Other markets",
        "won": 3,
        "picks": 9,
        "implied_percent": "65.0"
       }
      ]
     }
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
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  ],
  "interval_low": "-11.87",
  "interval_high": "9.38",
  "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 29 May 2025 – 8 May 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1",
  "record_from": "2025-05-09",
  "record_to": "2026-05-29"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
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   "url": null,
   "match": "Monza v Catanzaro",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-05-29T18:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Serie B",
   "lead_hours": -3244.1,
   "market_code": "total",
   "author_said": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: over 2.5 at 1.72",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "0-2",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "1.72",
   "settled_price": "1.8800",
   "published_at": "2026-05-29T08:57:19.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-11T22:08:59.844Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-5de6e0aca01a32d8538e19de",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Monza v Catanzaro",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-05-29T18:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Serie B",
   "lead_hours": -3244.1,
   "market_code": "both_teams_score",
   "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.68",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "0-2",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "1.68",
   "settled_price": "1.7500",
   "published_at": "2026-05-29T08:57:19.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-11T22:08:59.844Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-a710cd04c68b4a81117346ea",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Torino v Juventus",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-05-24T19:45:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Serie A",
   "lead_hours": -3362.4,
   "market_code": "total",
   "author_said": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: under 3.5 at 1.35",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "2-2",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "1.35",
   "settled_price": "1.4950",
   "published_at": "2026-05-24T09:22:38.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-11T22:09:03.191Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-aa5fec1d8f0933897e9ad8fc",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Torino v Juventus",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-05-24T19:45:00.000Z",
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 "title_tag": "Armando Areniello Predictions: Verified Record and Results",
 "calculator": null,
 "person": {
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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    "composition_hash": "8dbd1e0b8dc0159cc93d391d2ebf05c00ed779b8ec215670f2219a19ee706253",
    "text": "−1.06% on 342 settled picks across 139 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
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   "reason": "First headline number for this record: 342 settled picks in the series “historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only”.",
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