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 "heading": "How Unusual Is Your Betting Record? A Probability Calculator",
 "description": "Enter the number of picks, the average odds and the return: see how unusual that record would be if no pick had an edge.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record's simplified Luck or skill calculator shows how unusual a betting record would be if no pick had an edge: for example, 100 picks at average odds 2.00 returning +10.0% or better has probability 18.4% with no bookmaker margin and 3.5% with a 10.0% margin; the model, its limits and the margin sensitivity are explained below; page as of 7 November 2026.",
  "key_number": "18.4%",
  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "simplified binomial model on the stated inputs",
  "brand": "Forecast Record"
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 "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
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  "contract_version": "2",
  "model": "binomial, one average price, independent bets",
  "question": "How unusual is this result?",
  "limitation": "This simplified model assumes independent bets with the same win probability. It does not support half wins, half losses or correlated selections.",
  "meaning": "This is the probability of a result at least this extreme under the selected model.",
  "unsuitable_record": "This record cannot be evaluated with the simplified calculator.",
  "profile_link_rule": {
   "series": "market_price",
   "min_settled_excluding_void": 30,
   "half_outcomes": "not supported"
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  "example": {
   "n": 100,
   "odds": 2.0,
   "roi_percent": 10.0,
   "probability": 0.184101,
   "wins_needed": 55,
   "sentence": "Under the simplified model, where every pick wins exactly as often as its price implies (no bookmaker margin), a record of 100 picks at average odds 2.00 returns +10.0% or better with probability 18.4% — about 1 in 5.4 such records. That needs at least 55 wins; the model averages 50.0 wins, and the return of a no-edge record typically lands within ±10.0 percentage points of 0.0%.",
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     "margin_percent": 0,
     "probability": 0.184101,
     "side": "at least this well",
     "wins_needed": 55
    },
    {
     "margin_percent": 5,
     "probability": 0.084202,
     "side": "at least this well",
     "wins_needed": 55
    },
    {
     "margin_percent": 10,
     "probability": 0.034907,
     "side": "at least this well",
     "wins_needed": 55
    },
    {
     "margin_percent": 20,
     "probability": 0.004891,
     "side": "at least this well",
     "wins_needed": 55
    }
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