{
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 "schema_version": "2.0",
 "page_type": "titles",
 "url": "/titles/p-07-month-above-prices/",
 "canonical": "/titles/p-07-month-above-prices/",
 "language": "en",
 "hreflang": [],
 "translations": [],
 "heading": "Month above prices — Forecast Record Title",
 "description": "Month above prices: the rule, the field, the current holders and the picks behind each one.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "On Forecast Record, 2 tipsters and sources are on show for Month above prices from the last 180 days; 3 more are in the record history (as of 7 November 2026, source: our own settlement journal).",
  "key_number": "2",
  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own settlement journal",
  "brand": "Forecast Record"
 },
 "indexable": false,
 "noindex_reason": "too_few_settled",
 "indexing_threshold": {
  "settled_count": 0,
  "date_count": 0,
  "required_settled": 0,
  "required_dates": 0
 },
 "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "lastmod": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "content_hash": null,
 "meaning_hash": "49d6aedf0bc5e4cfb693febec5724f360f3b6e743be4ec0555f1bbb6ff5b4e2c",
 "dependency_group": "titles:view",
 "release_id": "20261107-195223",
 "markup": [
  {
   "type_code": "WebPage",
   "allowed": true,
   "cause": null
  },
  {
   "type_code": "Organization",
   "allowed": true,
   "cause": null
  }
 ],
 "exports": [
  {
   "type_code": "json",
   "url": "/titles/p-07-month-above-prices/index.json",
   "bytes": null
  }
 ],
 "modules": {
  "affiliate": false,
  "api": true,
  "compare_yourself": false
 },
 "affiliate_block": null,
 "restrictions": {
  "name_withdrawn": false,
  "tracker_number": null,
  "withdrawn_quotes": [],
  "removed_at": null,
  "cause": null,
  "suspended_records": [],
  "withdrawal_log_number": 0
 },
 "page_links": {
  "methodology": "/methodology/",
  "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/",
  "source_coverage": "/coverage/",
  "corrections_log": "/corrections/",
  "api": "/api/",
  "claim": "/claim/"
 },
 "titles_page": {
  "code_name": "P-07",
  "display_name": "Month above prices",
  "source_group": "Periods",
  "chip": false,
  "title_tier": "dated_record",
  "view_category": "calendar month",
  "data_block": "live record and pre-match web archive (titles relying on the archive are marked \"archive record\"); picks found after the match only end runs and count in denominators",
  "rule": "A closed calendar month with at least 10 result calls that have a pre-match price for the named outcome (a price for at least 90.0% of the calls): correct calls exceed the number the prices implied by at least 2. The implied number includes the bookmaker margin, so the comparison does not favour the tipster. Shown for 180 days from the end of the month.",
  "revision": "1",
  "holders": [
   {
    "id": "zk-9fcfb4b8f238d4285552",
    "name_shown": "Alberto Mauro",
    "url": "/authors/alberto-mauro/",
    "body": "Oct 2026: 10 of 12 result calls right · prices implied 6.8",
    "fact": "10 of 12 result calls right in Oct 2026, one call per match; the pre-match prices of the named outcomes implied 6.8 (margin included, so the comparison does not favour the tipster).",
    "tier": null,
    "m": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "status": "active",
    "cause": null,
    "event_at": "2026-10-31",
    "evidence_through": "2026-10-31",
    "year": "2026",
    "chance": {
     "contract_version": 1,
     "kind": "at_least",
     "priced": 11,
     "unpriced": 1,
     "hits": 9,
     "probability": 0.062814,
     "one_in": 16,
     "log10": -1.2,
     "words": "1 in 16",
     "rule": "probability of at least this many correct picks if each pick came in with its market probability (1/price); exact Poisson-binomial",
     "note": "market prices include the bookmaker margin, so the chance is slightly overstated — a cautious figure"
    },
    "evidence_items": [
     {
      "nid": "n-9e18df33f9412277b93553f2",
      "data": "2026-10-11",
      "match": "Como v AS Roma",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: draw at 3.6",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "url": "/authors/alberto-mauro/picks/2/#pick-n-9e18df33f9412277b93553f2",
      "evidence_price": 3.5,
      "comparison": "12 other tipsters and sources on this match, 9 right (9 named draw, 2 named home win, 1 named away win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-7e1b0714fbddfe1f53b1ca2e",
      "data": "2026-10-11",
      "match": "Lecce v Bologna",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: draw at 3.22",
      "outcome_label": "wrong",
      "url": "/authors/alberto-mauro/picks/2/#pick-n-7e1b0714fbddfe1f53b1ca2e",
      "evidence_price": 3.2,
      "comparison": "6 other tipsters and sources on this match, 1 right (3 named draw, 2 named home win, 1 named away win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-4fcdb57c0f9e48b502ef91c0",
      "data": "2026-10-13",
      "match": "Atlético Madrid v Manchester United",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: Atlético Madrid at 1.95",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "url": "/authors/alberto-mauro/picks/2/#pick-n-4fcdb57c0f9e48b502ef91c0",
      "evidence_price": 1.91,
      "comparison": "21 other tipsters and sources on this match, 19 right (19 named home win, 1 named away win, 1 named draw)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-5bdb1705903438f81f463906",
      "data": "2026-10-22",
      "match": "Getafe v FC Lugano",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: Getafe at 1.8",
      "outcome_label": "wrong",
      "url": "/authors/alberto-mauro/picks/5/#pick-n-5bdb1705903438f81f463906",
      "evidence_price": 2.15,
      "comparison": "14 other tipsters and sources on this match, 3 right (7 named home win, 4 named draw, 3 named away win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-7e0006049878707173db6f51",
      "data": "2026-10-22",
      "match": "Union St. Gilloise v Hapoel Be'er Sheva",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: Union St. Gilloise at 1.28",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "url": "/authors/alberto-mauro/picks/5/#pick-n-7e0006049878707173db6f51",
      "evidence_price": 1.41,
      "comparison": "13 other tipsters and sources on this match, 13 right (13 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-4c612124f6c48bb4776d37de",
      "data": "2026-10-22",
      "match": "Sporting Braga v Gent",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: Sporting Braga at 1.65",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "url": "/authors/alberto-mauro/picks/6/#pick-n-4c612124f6c48bb4776d37de",
      "evidence_price": 1.78,
      "comparison": "12 other tipsters and sources on this match, 7 right (7 named home win, 4 named draw, 1 named away win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-a96907945bdf52df816bd675",
      "data": "2026-10-24",
      "match": "Como v Sassuolo",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: Como at 1.5",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "url": "/authors/alberto-mauro/picks/6/#pick-n-a96907945bdf52df816bd675",
      "evidence_price": 1.47,
      "comparison": "18 other tipsters and sources on this match, 17 right (17 named home win, 1 named draw)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-cc035fa2b607db9ac9ee3ed0",
      "data": "2026-10-24",
      "match": "Lazio v Parma",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: Lazio at 1.42",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "url": "/authors/alberto-mauro/picks/7/#pick-n-cc035fa2b607db9ac9ee3ed0",
      "evidence_price": 1.44,
      "comparison": "22 other tipsters and sources on this match, 20 right (22 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-fe0213a1b60b14d9474a627f",
      "data": "2026-10-27",
      "match": "Torino v Como",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: Como at 1.75",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "url": "/authors/alberto-mauro/picks/7/#pick-n-fe0213a1b60b14d9474a627f",
      "evidence_price": 1.72,
      "comparison": "24 other tipsters and sources on this match, 21 right (21 named away win, 2 named draw, 1 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-7bc674da0d7036fcd125c48e",
      "data": "2026-10-28",
      "match": "Venezia v Inter",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: Inter",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "url": "/authors/alberto-mauro/picks/8/#pick-n-7bc674da0d7036fcd125c48e",
      "evidence_price": 1.36,
      "comparison": "22 other tipsters and sources on this match, 19 right (22 named away win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-c3bada14f6176c6c42000914",
      "data": "2026-10-28",
      "match": "Monza v SSC Napoli",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: SSC Napoli at 1.75",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "url": "/authors/alberto-mauro/picks/8/#pick-n-c3bada14f6176c6c42000914",
      "evidence_price": 1.58,
      "comparison": "25 other tipsters and sources on this match, 22 right (22 named away win, 2 named home win, 1 named draw)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-8c53b46b8ec936293fb3cd46",
      "data": "2026-10-31",
      "match": "Bologna v Monza",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: Bologna at 1.67",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "url": "/authors/alberto-mauro/picks/8/#pick-n-8c53b46b8ec936293fb3cd46",
      "evidence_price": 1.67,
      "comparison": "17 other tipsters and sources on this match, 15 right (15 named home win, 2 named draw)"
     }
    ]
   },
   {
    "id": "zk-f2de338a0dc9bef29eba",
    "name_shown": "Nathan Egerton",
    "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/",
    "body": "Oct 2026: 7 of 11 result calls right · prices implied 4.5",
    "fact": "7 of 11 result calls right in Oct 2026, one call per match; the pre-match prices of the named outcomes implied 4.5 (margin included, so the comparison does not favour the tipster).",
    "tier": null,
    "m": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "status": "active",
    "cause": null,
    "event_at": "2026-10-31",
    "evidence_through": "2026-10-31",
    "year": "2026",
    "chance": {
     "contract_version": 1,
     "kind": "at_least",
     "priced": 1,
     "unpriced": 10,
     "hits": 1,
     "probability": 0.298507,
     "one_in": 3,
     "log10": -0.53,
     "words": "1 in 3",
     "rule": "probability of at least this many correct picks if each pick came in with its market probability (1/price); exact Poisson-binomial",
     "note": "market prices include the bookmaker margin, so the chance is slightly overstated — a cautious figure"
    },
    "evidence_items": [
     {
      "nid": "n-037ab26e431ec8a5078a7d11",
      "data": "2026-10-11",
      "match": "Hull City v Everton",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: draw",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/5/#pick-n-037ab26e431ec8a5078a7d11",
      "evidence_price": 3.3,
      "comparison": "20 other tipsters and sources on this match, 10 right (10 named draw, 9 named away win, 1 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-e5d10cb6d2cb41f57ada1fcc",
      "data": "2026-10-20",
      "match": "Liverpool v Villarreal",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Liverpool 2-1 Villarreal at 19",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/6/#pick-n-e5d10cb6d2cb41f57ada1fcc",
      "evidence_price": 1.49,
      "comparison": "36 other tipsters and sources on this match, 36 right (36 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-592ff4d965da3f0b4595074c",
      "data": "2026-10-21",
      "match": "Como v Manchester United",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Como 1-1 Manchester United at 7",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/6/#pick-n-592ff4d965da3f0b4595074c",
      "evidence_price": 3.72,
      "comparison": "29 other tipsters and sources on this match, 18 right (18 named home win, 7 named draw, 4 named away win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-47f1c78c6d1b8f52199139d5",
      "data": "2026-10-25",
      "match": "Crystal Palace v Newcastle United",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Crystal Palace 1-1 Newcastle United at 8.5",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/6/#pick-n-47f1c78c6d1b8f52199139d5",
      "evidence_price": 3.5,
      "comparison": "13 other tipsters and sources on this match, 7 right (7 named away win, 4 named draw, 2 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-5660add3c5bb3e6273a93494",
      "data": "2026-10-25",
      "match": "Hull City v Brentford",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Hull City 1-1 Brentford at 8",
      "outcome_label": "score right · result right",
      "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/6/#pick-n-5660add3c5bb3e6273a93494",
      "evidence_price": 4.0,
      "comparison": "17 other tipsters and sources on this match, 2 right (15 named away win, 2 named draw)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-e21fa3cb26b30eb1cd6f4dc2",
      "data": "2026-10-25",
      "match": "Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Liverpool 2-1 Brighton & Hove Albion at 10",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/7/#pick-n-e21fa3cb26b30eb1cd6f4dc2",
      "evidence_price": 1.95,
      "comparison": "24 other tipsters and sources on this match, 13 right (13 named home win, 8 named draw, 3 named away win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-ea68ed63c4077b0b5add5a02",
      "data": "2026-10-25",
      "match": "Manchester United v AFC Bournemouth",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Manchester United 2-2 AFC Bournemouth at 13",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/7/#pick-n-ea68ed63c4077b0b5add5a02",
      "evidence_price": 3.41,
      "comparison": "21 other tipsters and sources on this match, 5 right (10 named home win, 6 named draw, 5 named away win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-e68775762df7d5219a28d3e0",
      "data": "2026-10-25",
      "match": "Sunderland v Leeds United",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Sunderland 1-1 Leeds United at 7",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/7/#pick-n-e68775762df7d5219a28d3e0",
      "evidence_price": 3.1,
      "comparison": "21 other tipsters and sources on this match, 5 right (14 named away win, 5 named draw, 2 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-55310f10214f5688c1fef369",
      "data": "2026-10-31",
      "match": "Chelsea v Manchester United",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Chelsea 1-0 Manchester United at 11",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/7/#pick-n-55310f10214f5688c1fef369",
      "evidence_price": 2.2,
      "comparison": "50 other tipsters and sources on this match, 43 right (43 named home win, 6 named draw, 1 named away win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-8ae0ab8d0cfb24cb0aff2a56",
      "data": "2026-10-31",
      "match": "Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Tottenham Hotspur 2-0 Crystal Palace at 9.5",
      "outcome_label": "score right · result right",
      "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/8/#pick-n-8ae0ab8d0cfb24cb0aff2a56",
      "evidence_price": 1.65,
      "comparison": "37 other tipsters and sources on this match, 34 right (34 named home win, 3 named away win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-0602c0858bbc10ec243cb06d",
      "data": "2026-10-31",
      "match": "Aston Villa v Fulham",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Aston Villa 2-0 Fulham at 12",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/8/#pick-n-0602c0858bbc10ec243cb06d",
      "evidence_price": 1.98,
      "comparison": "39 other tipsters and sources on this match, 0 right (39 named home win)"
     }
    ]
   }
  ],
  "history": [
   {
    "id": "zk-fe0d8a2303db08ae5504",
    "name_shown": "James Cormack",
    "url": "/authors/james-cormack/",
    "body": "Apr 2026: 7 of 11 result calls right · prices implied 4.9 · archive record",
    "fact": "7 of 11 result calls right in Apr 2026, one call per match; the pre-match prices of the named outcomes implied 4.9 (margin included, so the comparison does not favour the tipster).",
    "tier": null,
    "m": null,
    "provenance": "archived",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "180 days after the event",
    "event_at": "2026-04-30",
    "evidence_through": "2026-04-30",
    "year": "2026",
    "chance": {
     "contract_version": 1,
     "kind": "at_least",
     "priced": 11,
     "unpriced": 0,
     "hits": 2,
     "probability": 0.989479,
     "one_in": 1,
     "log10": -0.0,
     "words": "about even",
     "rule": "probability of at least this many correct picks if each pick came in with its market probability (1/price); exact Poisson-binomial",
     "note": "market prices include the bookmaker margin, so the chance is slightly overstated — a cautious figure"
    },
    "evidence_items": [
     {
      "nid": "n-9b99b83bfc1129df585a0f57",
      "data": "2026-04-07",
      "match": "Sporting CP v Arsenal",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Sporting CP 1-1 Arsenal",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/14/#pick-n-9b99b83bfc1129df585a0f57",
      "evidence_price": 3.6,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-a468dccc78af65187ced8864",
      "data": "2026-04-07",
      "match": "Real Madrid v FC Bayern München",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Real Madrid 2-1 FC Bayern München",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/14/#pick-n-a468dccc78af65187ced8864",
      "evidence_price": 2.7,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-2035ca4e929c5fae4a217cfc",
      "data": "2026-04-08",
      "match": "Paris Saint-Germain v Liverpool",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Paris Saint-Germain 3-1 Liverpool",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/13/#pick-n-2035ca4e929c5fae4a217cfc",
      "evidence_price": 1.77,
      "comparison": "2 other tipsters and sources on this match, 2 right (2 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-40f4c8ef4dd1970e11058b33",
      "data": "2026-04-15",
      "match": "Arsenal v Sporting CP",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Arsenal 1-1 Sporting CP",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/13/#pick-n-40f4c8ef4dd1970e11058b33",
      "evidence_price": 4.3,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 0 right (1 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-2225b8535ffe01c6d97068ea",
      "data": "2026-04-24",
      "match": "Sunderland v Nottingham Forest",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Sunderland 0-0 Nottingham Forest",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/8/#pick-n-2225b8535ffe01c6d97068ea",
      "evidence_price": 3.1,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 0 right (1 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-3db35450b94dea1b70ff8b13",
      "data": "2026-04-25",
      "match": "Fulham v Aston Villa",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Fulham 2-1 Aston Villa",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/8/#pick-n-3db35450b94dea1b70ff8b13",
      "evidence_price": 2.5,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 0 right (1 named away win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-18075d0e26721ea542aa6dbe",
      "data": "2026-04-25",
      "match": "Liverpool v Crystal Palace",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Liverpool 2-1 Crystal Palace",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/8/#pick-n-18075d0e26721ea542aa6dbe",
      "evidence_price": 1.58,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 1 right (1 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-23ba23433bc2d6edb5b892d9",
      "data": "2026-04-25",
      "match": "Wolverhampton Wanderers v Tottenham Hotspur",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Wolverhampton Wanderers 1-3 Tottenham Hotspur",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/8/#pick-n-23ba23433bc2d6edb5b892d9",
      "evidence_price": 1.65,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-b239e16d6d61a52796328113",
      "data": "2026-04-25",
      "match": "West Ham United v Everton",
      "said_text": "Correct score: West Ham United 2-2 Everton",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/8/#pick-n-b239e16d6d61a52796328113",
      "evidence_price": 3.4,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-b35d9a6d3ab4e8977dd47226",
      "data": "2026-04-25",
      "match": "Arsenal v Newcastle United",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle United",
      "outcome_label": "score right · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/8/#pick-n-b35d9a6d3ab4e8977dd47226",
      "evidence_price": 1.4,
      "comparison": "3 other tipsters and sources on this match, 3 right (3 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-02740ca95d30400fc2e2f2bd",
      "data": "2026-04-27",
      "match": "Manchester United v Brentford",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Manchester United 2-1 Brentford",
      "outcome_label": "score right · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/8/#pick-n-02740ca95d30400fc2e2f2bd",
      "evidence_price": 1.95,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 1 right (1 named home win)"
     }
    ]
   },
   {
    "id": "zk-7477e3737763c089a7ca",
    "name_shown": "James Cormack",
    "url": "/authors/james-cormack/",
    "body": "Feb 2026: 18 of 29 result calls right · prices implied 14.4 · archive record",
    "fact": "18 of 29 result calls right in Feb 2026, one call per match; the pre-match prices of the named outcomes implied 14.4 (margin included, so the comparison does not favour the tipster).",
    "tier": null,
    "m": null,
    "provenance": "archived",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "180 days after the event",
    "event_at": "2026-02-28",
    "evidence_through": "2026-02-28",
    "year": "2026",
    "chance": {
     "contract_version": 1,
     "kind": "at_least",
     "priced": 29,
     "unpriced": 0,
     "hits": 2,
     "probability": 1.0,
     "one_in": 1,
     "log10": -0.0,
     "words": "about even",
     "rule": "probability of at least this many correct picks if each pick came in with its market probability (1/price); exact Poisson-binomial",
     "note": "market prices include the bookmaker margin, so the chance is slightly overstated — a cautious figure"
    },
    "evidence_items": [
     {
      "nid": "n-c01cc4738eee6dfff6b46dce",
      "data": "2026-02-03",
      "match": "Arsenal v Chelsea",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/15/#pick-n-c01cc4738eee6dfff6b46dce",
      "evidence_price": 1.7,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-49983ab08d684501d6f73353",
      "data": "2026-02-04",
      "match": "Manchester City v Newcastle United",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Manchester City 3-1 Newcastle United",
      "outcome_label": "score right · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/21/#pick-n-49983ab08d684501d6f73353",
      "evidence_price": 1.91,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-efa5e5fa7e6ea26a0368b90e",
      "data": "2026-02-07",
      "match": "Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Manchester United 3-1 Tottenham Hotspur",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/5/#pick-n-efa5e5fa7e6ea26a0368b90e",
      "evidence_price": 1.58,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 1 right (1 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-0560a396939360bd2c90fb03",
      "data": "2026-02-07",
      "match": "Wolverhampton Wanderers v Chelsea",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Wolverhampton Wanderers 1-3 Chelsea",
      "outcome_label": "score right · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/5/#pick-n-0560a396939360bd2c90fb03",
      "evidence_price": 1.6,
      "comparison": "2 other tipsters and sources on this match, 2 right (2 named away win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-a0d72299114679102a599223",
      "data": "2026-02-11",
      "match": "Manchester City v Fulham",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Manchester City 3-1 Fulham",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/5/#pick-n-a0d72299114679102a599223",
      "evidence_price": 1.38,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-131546cef7df6a56eefd35b3",
      "data": "2026-02-11",
      "match": "Sunderland v Liverpool",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Sunderland 2-1 Liverpool",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/5/#pick-n-131546cef7df6a56eefd35b3",
      "evidence_price": 4.5,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-4bb2c27c089e4cfd00bc43cb",
      "data": "2026-02-12",
      "match": "Brentford v Arsenal",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Brentford 1-2 Arsenal",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/5/#pick-n-4bb2c27c089e4cfd00bc43cb",
      "evidence_price": 1.69,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-ed75f9ab0d3c0c238c3eaa08",
      "data": "2026-02-17",
      "match": "Galatasaray v Juventus",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Galatasaray 1-1 Juventus",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/15/#pick-n-ed75f9ab0d3c0c238c3eaa08",
      "evidence_price": 3.4,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 0 right (1 named draw)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-2ba065cc12f609094c856dad",
      "data": "2026-02-17",
      "match": "Monaco v Paris Saint-Germain",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Monaco 0-1 Paris Saint-Germain",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/15/#pick-n-2ba065cc12f609094c856dad",
      "evidence_price": 1.44,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-faa9f4b9b19678374290090e",
      "data": "2026-02-17",
      "match": "Benfica v Real Madrid",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Benfica 1-2 Real Madrid",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/15/#pick-n-faa9f4b9b19678374290090e",
      "evidence_price": 2.19,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 1 right (1 named away win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-56f54f332be9627043e7f0bf",
      "data": "2026-02-17",
      "match": "Borussia Dortmund v Atalanta",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Atalanta",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/15/#pick-n-56f54f332be9627043e7f0bf",
      "evidence_price": 2.1,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-a40fc0bc25c2e3e57f3cf308",
      "data": "2026-02-18",
      "match": "Club Brugge KV v Atlético Madrid",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Club Brugge KV 2-1 Atlético Madrid",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/15/#pick-n-a40fc0bc25c2e3e57f3cf308",
      "evidence_price": 3.71,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 1 right (1 named draw)"
     }
    ]
   },
   {
    "id": "zk-a4bd67de70b9e1906a89",
    "name_shown": "James Cormack",
    "url": "/authors/james-cormack/",
    "body": "Nov 2025: 16 of 29 result calls right · prices implied 13.5 · archive record",
    "fact": "16 of 29 result calls right in Nov 2025, one call per match; the pre-match prices of the named outcomes implied 13.5 (margin included, so the comparison does not favour the tipster).",
    "tier": null,
    "m": null,
    "provenance": "archived",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "180 days after the event",
    "event_at": "2025-11-30",
    "evidence_through": "2025-11-30",
    "year": "2025",
    "chance": {
     "contract_version": 1,
     "kind": "at_least",
     "priced": 29,
     "unpriced": 0,
     "hits": 2,
     "probability": 1.0,
     "one_in": 1,
     "log10": -0.0,
     "words": "about even",
     "rule": "probability of at least this many correct picks if each pick came in with its market probability (1/price); exact Poisson-binomial",
     "note": "market prices include the bookmaker margin, so the chance is slightly overstated — a cautious figure"
    },
    "evidence_items": [
     {
      "nid": "n-19d2a1675c61e992326c08e4",
      "data": "2025-11-01",
      "match": "Burnley v Arsenal",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Burnley 0-1 Arsenal",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/11/#pick-n-19d2a1675c61e992326c08e4",
      "evidence_price": 1.25,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-2d91faf105210ad910a6c6c4",
      "data": "2025-11-01",
      "match": "Nottingham Forest v Manchester United",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Nottingham Forest 1-2 Manchester United",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/11/#pick-n-2d91faf105210ad910a6c6c4",
      "evidence_price": 2.1,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 0 right (1 named away win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-49f8dbe7ff314135203d0b5e",
      "data": "2025-11-01",
      "match": "Fulham v Wolverhampton Wanderers",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Fulham 2-0 Wolverhampton Wanderers",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/11/#pick-n-49f8dbe7ff314135203d0b5e",
      "evidence_price": 1.8,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-a36d55aaaac04a6a288e4d83",
      "data": "2025-11-01",
      "match": "Brighton & Hove Albion v Leeds United",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Brighton & Hove Albion 3-1 Leeds United",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/11/#pick-n-a36d55aaaac04a6a288e4d83",
      "evidence_price": 1.95,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-cc16ff633e2b763b234c71c3",
      "data": "2025-11-01",
      "match": "Crystal Palace v Brentford",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Crystal Palace 2-1 Brentford",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/11/#pick-n-cc16ff633e2b763b234c71c3",
      "evidence_price": 2.05,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-4fc67e245ebe3a568896ffe9",
      "data": "2025-11-01",
      "match": "Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Tottenham Hotspur 2-2 Chelsea",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/11/#pick-n-4fc67e245ebe3a568896ffe9",
      "evidence_price": 3.45,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-df1068c1112ce0898b0fe28d",
      "data": "2025-11-01",
      "match": "Liverpool v Aston Villa",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Liverpool 2-1 Aston Villa",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/11/#pick-n-df1068c1112ce0898b0fe28d",
      "evidence_price": 1.65,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 1 right (1 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-3b6f376621bb9a10dd820da6",
      "data": "2025-11-02",
      "match": "West Ham United v Newcastle United",
      "said_text": "Correct score: West Ham United 1-3 Newcastle United",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/11/#pick-n-3b6f376621bb9a10dd820da6",
      "evidence_price": 1.63,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-e76e74e5d7ab814231660fc1",
      "data": "2025-11-02",
      "match": "Manchester City v AFC Bournemouth",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Manchester City 2-1 AFC Bournemouth",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/11/#pick-n-e76e74e5d7ab814231660fc1",
      "evidence_price": 1.43,
      "comparison": "2 other tipsters and sources on this match, 2 right (2 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-47964b2ccb33e72238f9e0f9",
      "data": "2025-11-03",
      "match": "Sunderland v Everton",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Sunderland 1-1 Everton",
      "outcome_label": "score right · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/11/#pick-n-47964b2ccb33e72238f9e0f9",
      "evidence_price": 3.05,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 1 right (1 named draw)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-427b768eabd2b45e8aa5bc9e",
      "data": "2025-11-04",
      "match": "Liverpool v Real Madrid",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Liverpool 3-2 Real Madrid",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/18/#pick-n-427b768eabd2b45e8aa5bc9e",
      "evidence_price": 2.38,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-4136141783f6651d30f42514",
      "data": "2025-11-05",
      "match": "Club Brugge KV v FC Barcelona",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Club Brugge KV 1-3 FC Barcelona",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/17/#pick-n-4136141783f6651d30f42514",
      "evidence_price": 1.5,
      "comparison": null
     }
    ]
   },
   {
    "id": "zk-44b8b569bb3d2f9c3df7",
    "name_shown": "James Cormack",
    "url": "/authors/james-cormack/",
    "body": "Oct 2025: 21 of 32 result calls right · prices implied 18.8 · archive record",
    "fact": "21 of 32 result calls right in Oct 2025, one call per match; the pre-match prices of the named outcomes implied 18.8 (margin included, so the comparison does not favour the tipster).",
    "tier": null,
    "m": null,
    "provenance": "archived",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "180 days after the event",
    "event_at": "2025-10-31",
    "evidence_through": "2025-10-31",
    "year": "2025",
    "chance": {
     "contract_version": 1,
     "kind": "at_least",
     "priced": 32,
     "unpriced": 0,
     "hits": 2,
     "probability": 1.0,
     "one_in": 1,
     "log10": -0.0,
     "words": "about even",
     "rule": "probability of at least this many correct picks if each pick came in with its market probability (1/price); exact Poisson-binomial",
     "note": "market prices include the bookmaker margin, so the chance is slightly overstated — a cautious figure"
    },
    "evidence_items": [
     {
      "nid": "n-8038605fcad6bb9c21c3fed6",
      "data": "2025-10-01",
      "match": "Union St. Gilloise v Newcastle United",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Union St. Gilloise 0-0 Newcastle United",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/19/#pick-n-8038605fcad6bb9c21c3fed6",
      "evidence_price": 3.6,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-d03244c52fa4eb88c994a249",
      "data": "2025-10-01",
      "match": "Qarabag v FC København",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Qarabag 1-1 FC København",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/20/#pick-n-d03244c52fa4eb88c994a249",
      "evidence_price": 3.35,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 0 right (1 named draw)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-04dc74431153c44602d259ae",
      "data": "2025-10-01",
      "match": "Monaco v Manchester City",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Monaco 1-3 Manchester City",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/19/#pick-n-04dc74431153c44602d259ae",
      "evidence_price": 1.35,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 0 right (1 named away win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-06a52fcec9db7c6e3ae6c6ef",
      "data": "2025-10-01",
      "match": "SSC Napoli v Sporting CP",
      "said_text": "Correct score: SSC Napoli 2-0 Sporting CP",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/19/#pick-n-06a52fcec9db7c6e3ae6c6ef",
      "evidence_price": 1.9,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-4dba8e41753986bbdbc37383",
      "data": "2025-10-01",
      "match": "Arsenal v Olympiakos Piraeus",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Arsenal 4-0 Olympiakos Piraeus",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/19/#pick-n-4dba8e41753986bbdbc37383",
      "evidence_price": 1.17,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 1 right (1 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-b22d680b6d5f2f48009df6b0",
      "data": "2025-10-01",
      "match": "Villarreal v Juventus",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Villarreal 2-1 Juventus",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/19/#pick-n-b22d680b6d5f2f48009df6b0",
      "evidence_price": 2.25,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 1 right (1 named draw)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-db32ef950c5c8ede9627001b",
      "data": "2025-10-01",
      "match": "Borussia Dortmund v Athletic Club",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Athletic Club",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/20/#pick-n-db32ef950c5c8ede9627001b",
      "evidence_price": 1.77,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-f35a830d4a01636ee6fe5e7d",
      "data": "2025-10-01",
      "match": "FC Barcelona v Paris Saint-Germain",
      "said_text": "Correct score: FC Barcelona 3-2 Paris Saint-Germain",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/20/#pick-n-f35a830d4a01636ee6fe5e7d",
      "evidence_price": 1.68,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 0 right (1 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-f8f773bbe08d25f791d61623",
      "data": "2025-10-01",
      "match": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen v PSV Eindhoven",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2-1 PSV Eindhoven",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/20/#pick-n-f8f773bbe08d25f791d61623",
      "evidence_price": 1.85,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 0 right (1 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-17dcc5ae40c0a282bc339d54",
      "data": "2025-10-18",
      "match": "Manchester City v Everton",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Manchester City 2-1 Everton",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/6/#pick-n-17dcc5ae40c0a282bc339d54",
      "evidence_price": 1.44,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 1 right (1 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-a147ce6fb0eb4bda1d66f9e8",
      "data": "2025-10-18",
      "match": "Fulham v Arsenal",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Fulham 0-2 Arsenal",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/6/#pick-n-a147ce6fb0eb4bda1d66f9e8",
      "evidence_price": 1.5,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 1 right (1 named away win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-66ebf0096beb5a6b29a212ae",
      "data": "2025-10-21",
      "match": "FC Barcelona v Olympiakos Piraeus",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: FC Barcelona",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "url": "/authors/james-cormack/picks/19/#pick-n-66ebf0096beb5a6b29a212ae",
      "evidence_price": 1.25,
      "comparison": null
     }
    ]
   },
   {
    "id": "zk-62f847200ca13503d687",
    "name_shown": "Ewan Ross-Murray",
    "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/",
    "body": "Sep 2025: 10 of 17 result calls right · prices implied 7.0 · archive record",
    "fact": "10 of 17 result calls right in Sep 2025, one call per match; the pre-match prices of the named outcomes implied 7.0 (margin included, so the comparison does not favour the tipster).",
    "tier": null,
    "m": null,
    "provenance": "archived",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "180 days after the event",
    "event_at": "2025-09-30",
    "evidence_through": "2025-09-30",
    "year": "2025",
    "chance": {
     "contract_version": 1,
     "kind": "at_least",
     "priced": 17,
     "unpriced": 0,
     "hits": 2,
     "probability": 0.999111,
     "one_in": 1,
     "log10": -0.0,
     "words": "about even",
     "rule": "probability of at least this many correct picks if each pick came in with its market probability (1/price); exact Poisson-binomial",
     "note": "market prices include the bookmaker margin, so the chance is slightly overstated — a cautious figure"
    },
    "evidence_items": [
     {
      "nid": "n-83e4b0eccaf2407c0f9773c6",
      "data": "2025-09-13",
      "match": "West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur",
      "said_text": "Correct score: West Ham United 1-2 Tottenham Hotspur",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/8/#pick-n-83e4b0eccaf2407c0f9773c6",
      "evidence_price": 2.15,
      "comparison": "2 other tipsters and sources on this match, 2 right (2 named away win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-c4fe9675403a9f003faa59f5",
      "data": "2025-09-14",
      "match": "Burnley v Liverpool",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Burnley 1-4 Liverpool",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/8/#pick-n-c4fe9675403a9f003faa59f5",
      "evidence_price": 1.33,
      "comparison": "2 other tipsters and sources on this match, 2 right (2 named away win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-77f9a2c7a8609e23b777c0f4",
      "data": "2025-09-14",
      "match": "Manchester City v Manchester United",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Manchester City 2-2 Manchester United",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/8/#pick-n-77f9a2c7a8609e23b777c0f4",
      "evidence_price": 4.1,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-96e96f13c1567b76759fbee3",
      "data": "2025-09-17",
      "match": "Liverpool v Atlético Madrid",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Liverpool 2-0 Atlético Madrid",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/23/#pick-n-96e96f13c1567b76759fbee3",
      "evidence_price": 1.48,
      "comparison": "2 other tipsters and sources on this match, 2 right (2 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-d936d3c3d05ae7465448d91e",
      "data": "2025-09-20",
      "match": "Liverpool v Everton",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Liverpool 1-0 Everton",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/18/#pick-n-d936d3c3d05ae7465448d91e",
      "evidence_price": 1.5,
      "comparison": "2 other tipsters and sources on this match, 1 right (1 named draw, 1 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-0d33342201a0ec7f23307e92",
      "data": "2025-09-20",
      "match": "Brighton & Hove Albion v Tottenham Hotspur",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Brighton & Hove Albion 1-2 Tottenham Hotspur",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/18/#pick-n-0d33342201a0ec7f23307e92",
      "evidence_price": 3.05,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 0 right (1 named away win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-33babe42462839d73ffd53fc",
      "data": "2025-09-20",
      "match": "Wolverhampton Wanderers v Leeds United",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Wolverhampton Wanderers 1-0 Leeds United",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/18/#pick-n-33babe42462839d73ffd53fc",
      "evidence_price": 2.92,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 0 right (1 named draw)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-55b1781c92a3844d2934f6ca",
      "data": "2025-09-20",
      "match": "West Ham United v Crystal Palace",
      "said_text": "Correct score: West Ham United 0-2 Crystal Palace",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/18/#pick-n-55b1781c92a3844d2934f6ca",
      "evidence_price": 2.33,
      "comparison": "2 other tipsters and sources on this match, 0 right (2 named draw)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-8804bd621fb94c5e9aa691e9",
      "data": "2025-09-20",
      "match": "Burnley v Nottingham Forest",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Burnley 1-1 Nottingham Forest",
      "outcome_label": "score right · result right",
      "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/18/#pick-n-8804bd621fb94c5e9aa691e9",
      "evidence_price": 3.32,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 1 right (1 named draw)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-ccdb32976df6bdcfbece9e86",
      "data": "2025-09-20",
      "match": "Manchester United v Chelsea",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Manchester United 1-3 Chelsea",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/18/#pick-n-ccdb32976df6bdcfbece9e86",
      "evidence_price": 2.5,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-e27012a324cb057567c7ab3b",
      "data": "2025-09-20",
      "match": "Fulham v Brentford",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Fulham 2-1 Brentford",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/18/#pick-n-e27012a324cb057567c7ab3b",
      "evidence_price": 2.1,
      "comparison": "2 other tipsters and sources on this match, 1 right (1 named home win, 1 named draw)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-0a98f04ca595993a837781ea",
      "data": "2025-09-21",
      "match": "Sunderland v Aston Villa",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Sunderland 2-3 Aston Villa",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/18/#pick-n-0a98f04ca595993a837781ea",
      "evidence_price": 2.0,
      "comparison": null
     }
    ]
   },
   {
    "id": "zk-100e4ff029d5af1bd260",
    "name_shown": "Ewan Ross-Murray",
    "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/",
    "body": "Aug 2025: 10 of 15 result calls right · prices implied 7.7 · archive record",
    "fact": "10 of 15 result calls right in Aug 2025, one call per match; the pre-match prices of the named outcomes implied 7.7 (margin included, so the comparison does not favour the tipster).",
    "tier": null,
    "m": null,
    "provenance": "archived",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "180 days after the event",
    "event_at": "2025-08-31",
    "evidence_through": "2025-08-31",
    "year": "2025",
    "chance": {
     "contract_version": 1,
     "kind": "at_least",
     "priced": 15,
     "unpriced": 0,
     "hits": 1,
     "probability": 0.999991,
     "one_in": 1,
     "log10": -0.0,
     "words": "about even",
     "rule": "probability of at least this many correct picks if each pick came in with its market probability (1/price); exact Poisson-binomial",
     "note": "market prices include the bookmaker margin, so the chance is slightly overstated — a cautious figure"
    },
    "evidence_items": [
     {
      "nid": "n-b7f4c1e795ba51e6341fdb31",
      "data": "2025-08-15",
      "match": "Liverpool v AFC Bournemouth",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Liverpool 3-1 AFC Bournemouth",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/8/#pick-n-b7f4c1e795ba51e6341fdb31",
      "evidence_price": 1.3,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 1 right (1 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-7648eaf050841ccfc1a0c84c",
      "data": "2025-08-16",
      "match": "Aston Villa v Newcastle United",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Aston Villa 3-2 Newcastle United",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/18/#pick-n-7648eaf050841ccfc1a0c84c",
      "evidence_price": 2.37,
      "comparison": "2 other tipsters and sources on this match, 0 right (2 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-30df161684cd22904d239eb8",
      "data": "2025-08-16",
      "match": "Brighton & Hove Albion v Fulham",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Brighton & Hove Albion 1-1 Fulham",
      "outcome_label": "score right · result right",
      "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/18/#pick-n-30df161684cd22904d239eb8",
      "evidence_price": 3.65,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-3981610741624c0a85ba62ae",
      "data": "2025-08-16",
      "match": "Tottenham Hotspur v Burnley",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Tottenham Hotspur 2-0 Burnley",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/18/#pick-n-3981610741624c0a85ba62ae",
      "evidence_price": 1.55,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-d9ecf9cda76cba1f06a4853f",
      "data": "2025-08-16",
      "match": "Sunderland v West Ham United",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Sunderland 2-1 West Ham United",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/19/#pick-n-d9ecf9cda76cba1f06a4853f",
      "evidence_price": 3.4,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-2cebb1b7470e17da0259f412",
      "data": "2025-08-16",
      "match": "Wolverhampton Wanderers v Manchester City",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Wolverhampton Wanderers 0-2 Manchester City",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/8/#pick-n-2cebb1b7470e17da0259f412",
      "evidence_price": 1.52,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 0 right (1 named draw)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-119ffa6c07c53e3f7854eada",
      "data": "2025-08-17",
      "match": "Chelsea v Crystal Palace",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Chelsea 2-1 Crystal Palace",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/18/#pick-n-119ffa6c07c53e3f7854eada",
      "evidence_price": 1.83,
      "comparison": "2 other tipsters and sources on this match, 1 right (1 named home win, 1 named draw)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-c93358b232bfcac794c57f75",
      "data": "2025-08-17",
      "match": "Nottingham Forest v Brentford",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Nottingham Forest 1-0 Brentford",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/19/#pick-n-c93358b232bfcac794c57f75",
      "evidence_price": 1.91,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 1 right (1 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-2a172473aa547a6861ca7a63",
      "data": "2025-08-17",
      "match": "Manchester United v Arsenal",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Manchester United 1-2 Arsenal",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/8/#pick-n-2a172473aa547a6861ca7a63",
      "evidence_price": 1.93,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-4e2b853019ad7a4d4a8f8d68",
      "data": "2025-08-18",
      "match": "Leeds United v Everton",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Leeds United 2-2 Everton",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/18/#pick-n-4e2b853019ad7a4d4a8f8d68",
      "evidence_price": 3.25,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-2a3252e891b2ea0df0eb598c",
      "data": "2025-08-22",
      "match": "West Ham United v Chelsea",
      "said_text": "Correct score: West Ham United 0-2 Chelsea",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/8/#pick-n-2a3252e891b2ea0df0eb598c",
      "evidence_price": 1.71,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 1 right (1 named away win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-9d0335d7353680d73cbd5931",
      "data": "2025-08-23",
      "match": "Arsenal v Leeds United",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Arsenal 3-0 Leeds United",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/8/#pick-n-9d0335d7353680d73cbd5931",
      "evidence_price": 1.33,
      "comparison": "2 other tipsters and sources on this match, 2 right (2 named home win)"
     }
    ]
   },
   {
    "id": "zk-a157dedd19ff203d94f6",
    "name_shown": "Jake Osgathorpe",
    "url": "/authors/jake-osgathorpe/",
    "body": "Aug 2024: 9 of 12 result calls right · prices implied 5.8 · archive record",
    "fact": "9 of 12 result calls right in Aug 2024, one call per match; the pre-match prices of the named outcomes implied 5.8 (margin included, so the comparison does not favour the tipster).",
    "tier": null,
    "m": null,
    "provenance": "archived",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "180 days after the event",
    "event_at": "2024-08-31",
    "evidence_through": "2024-08-31",
    "year": "2024",
    "chance": {
     "contract_version": 1,
     "kind": "at_least",
     "priced": 12,
     "unpriced": 0,
     "hits": 2,
     "probability": 0.998201,
     "one_in": 1,
     "log10": -0.0,
     "words": "about even",
     "rule": "probability of at least this many correct picks if each pick came in with its market probability (1/price); exact Poisson-binomial",
     "note": "market prices include the bookmaker margin, so the chance is slightly overstated — a cautious figure"
    },
    "evidence_items": [
     {
      "nid": "n-21e65e21a56dc8fa38979681",
      "data": "2024-08-16",
      "match": "Manchester United v Fulham",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Manchester United 2-1 Fulham",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/jake-osgathorpe/picks/13/#pick-n-21e65e21a56dc8fa38979681",
      "evidence_price": 1.65,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-926d8eaf5741f8650c2e5d19",
      "data": "2024-08-17",
      "match": "Ipswich Town v Liverpool",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Ipswich Town 2-2 Liverpool",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/jake-osgathorpe/picks/14/#pick-n-926d8eaf5741f8650c2e5d19",
      "evidence_price": 5.7,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-9b36062d34ddc2c6548403a9",
      "data": "2024-08-17",
      "match": "Everton v Brighton & Hove Albion",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Everton 2-1 Brighton & Hove Albion",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/jake-osgathorpe/picks/14/#pick-n-9b36062d34ddc2c6548403a9",
      "evidence_price": 2.92,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-dc50fbdba892962b89a9015c",
      "data": "2024-08-17",
      "match": "Newcastle United v Southampton",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Newcastle United 4-1 Southampton",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/jake-osgathorpe/picks/14/#pick-n-dc50fbdba892962b89a9015c",
      "evidence_price": 1.38,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-f288d1121bef4166660d3edc",
      "data": "2024-08-17",
      "match": "Arsenal v Wolverhampton Wanderers",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Arsenal 3-1 Wolverhampton Wanderers",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/jake-osgathorpe/picks/14/#pick-n-f288d1121bef4166660d3edc",
      "evidence_price": 1.14,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-37e9a72579f03ba91b8623e2",
      "data": "2024-08-17",
      "match": "West Ham United v Aston Villa",
      "said_text": "Correct score: West Ham United 1-1 Aston Villa",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong",
      "url": "/authors/jake-osgathorpe/picks/14/#pick-n-37e9a72579f03ba91b8623e2",
      "evidence_price": 3.5,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-5bb5c146bfe0996b9c37d1c3",
      "data": "2024-08-31",
      "match": "Leicester City v Aston Villa",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Leicester City 1-2 Aston Villa",
      "outcome_label": "score right · result right",
      "url": "/authors/jake-osgathorpe/picks/13/#pick-n-5bb5c146bfe0996b9c37d1c3",
      "evidence_price": 1.88,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 1 right (1 named away win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-87ea74302c389ebb729a15e3",
      "data": "2024-08-31",
      "match": "Nottingham Forest v Wolverhampton Wanderers",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Wolverhampton Wanderers",
      "outcome_label": "score right · result right",
      "url": "/authors/jake-osgathorpe/picks/13/#pick-n-87ea74302c389ebb729a15e3",
      "evidence_price": 3.6,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-937eb40648235ba086c8f225",
      "data": "2024-08-31",
      "match": "Brentford v Southampton",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Brentford 2-1 Southampton",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/jake-osgathorpe/picks/13/#pick-n-937eb40648235ba086c8f225",
      "evidence_price": 1.79,
      "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 1 right (1 named home win)"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-e3b0168d069630282f0a6b4a",
      "data": "2024-08-31",
      "match": "Everton v AFC Bournemouth",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Everton 1-2 AFC Bournemouth",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/jake-osgathorpe/picks/13/#pick-n-e3b0168d069630282f0a6b4a",
      "evidence_price": 2.4,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-e620c549d8179ecc6800051a",
      "data": "2024-08-31",
      "match": "Ipswich Town v Fulham",
      "said_text": "Correct score: Ipswich Town 2-2 Fulham",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/jake-osgathorpe/picks/13/#pick-n-e620c549d8179ecc6800051a",
      "evidence_price": 3.4,
      "comparison": null
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-b69a4406f658b6402d1c1d60",
      "data": "2024-08-31",
      "match": "West Ham United v Manchester City",
      "said_text": "Correct score: West Ham United 0-2 Manchester City",
      "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right",
      "url": "/authors/jake-osgathorpe/picks/13/#pick-n-b69a4406f658b6402d1c1d60",
      "evidence_price": 1.4,
      "comparison": null
     }
    ]
   }
  ],
  "holders_people": 2,
  "fields": [],
  "visible": 62,
  "example": null,
  "luck": {
   "field": "chance",
   "words": "Each holder carries the chance of the same result by luck: the market probability (1/price at our recording) of every pick behind the title, multiplied for a run or summed as at least this many correct picks. Prices include the bookmaker margin, so the figure is cautious."
  },
  "legend": "Badges show titles earned before this prediction, by published rules.",
  "page_variant": "view"
 },
 "entity_id": "titles:/titles/p-07-month-above-prices/",
 "source_revision": 35
}