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 "heading": "EPL Index: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "1 settled pick by Automation Bot recorded before kick-off across 1 match, 17 Oct 2026: won 0 of 1 at our recorded market prices. Every pick with its source.",
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  "observed_to": "2026-10-26",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price",
  "restored": false,
  "headline_kind": "live_snapshot",
  "headline_part": "live",
  "settled_picks": 1,
  "matches": 1,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -10000,
  "staked_hundredths": 10000,
  "return_percent": "-100.00",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2026-10-17",
  "period_to": "2026-10-17",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "2.2",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 1 settled live pick by Automation Bot before kick-off across 1 match on 17 October 2026. Won 0 of 1 settled live pick at our recorded market prices. Of the 2 predictions we hold for Automation Bot, 2 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled live picks",
    "value": "1",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "1",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−100 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "value": "−100.0%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": null
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": {
    "part": "live",
    "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.",
    "settled_picks": 1,
    "matches": 1,
    "match_dates": 1,
    "period_from": "2026-10-17",
    "period_to": "2026-10-17",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -10000,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-10-17",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
     "after_picks": 1
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-10-17",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
     "after_picks": 1
    },
    "line_drawn": false,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2026-10-17",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     }
    ]
   },
   "archived": null
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record recorded 1 settled live pick by Automation Bot before kick-off across 1 match on 17 October 2026. Won 0 of 1 settled live pick at our recorded market prices. Of the 2 predictions we hold for Automation Bot, 2 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/sources/eplindex-com/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "2.2"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 2,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 0,
   "proven_predictions": 2,
   "proven_checked": 2,
   "proven_measured": 2,
   "proven_dates": 1,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 2,
     "checked": 2,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 1,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 1,
      "net_points_hundredths": -10000,
      "staked_hundredths": 10000,
      "return_percent": "-100.00",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2026-10-17",
      "period_to": "2026-10-17",
      "method_version": "2.2",
      "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0",
      "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0",
      "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 1
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Closing price",
       "series_code": "closing_live",
       "picks": 1,
       "return_main_percent": "-100.00",
       "return_other_percent": "-100.00",
       "settled_excluding_void": 1,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -10000,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -10000,
       "period_from": "2026-10-17",
       "period_to": "2026-10-17"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 1,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": 0.0,
      "outcome_checked": 1,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": 0.0,
      "baseline_matches": 1,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 1,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 0.0,
      "favourite_hits": 1,
      "favourite_rate": 100.0,
      "price_basis": "our pre-match snapshot",
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": [
       "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to this score forecast.",
       "0 of 1 score forecast named the exact score.",
       "The result implied by the named score was right in 0 of 1 match; the market favourite was right in 1 of the same match.",
       "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.",
       "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)."
      ]
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 2,
      "priced": 1
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 1,
      "won": 0,
      "won_percent": "0.0",
      "implied_percent": "27.4",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "27.4"
       }
      ]
     },
     "reviewed_after": {
      "predictions": 1,
      "right": 0,
      "wrong": 1,
      "other": 0
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
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      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-e25961b896bc6b20837ab25a"
  ],
  "interval_low": null,
  "interval_high": null,
  "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 17 October 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2",
  "record_from": "2026-10-09",
  "record_to": "2026-10-26"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-e25961b896bc6b20837ab25a",
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   "match": "Everton v Chelsea",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/everton-vs-chelsea-2026-10-17/",
   "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": 9.7,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: draw",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "0-2",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "market_price",
   "series_short": "odds snapshot",
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": "3.6500",
   "published_at": "2026-10-16T20:50:24.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-17T01:46:25.634Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "record_part": "live",
   "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off",
   "in_headline": true,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": {
    "outcome": "2",
    "price": "2.1500",
    "result": "Won",
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    "picked_favourite": false
   },
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-e25961b896bc6b20837ab25a",
    "quote_text": "The best bet looks like the draw, and the score that fits best is 1-1.",
    "fragment_from": 4726,
    "fragment_to": 4796,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "rss",
     "url": "https://eplindex.com/151503/everton-vs-chelsea-match-preview-latest-team-news-and-predicted-lineups.html",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Automation Bot",
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     "bundle_id": "116a2949d0189a5a7f940e8353094b43482d3ead736b9c4e4a7f904c2a032ab4",
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    },
    "published_at": "2026-10-16T20:50:24.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-17T01:46:25.634Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-10-18T05:50:44.755Z",
    "statement_class": "unpriced",
    "status": "recognised",
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    "cause_code": null,
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     "display_name": "Everton — Chelsea",
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     "starts_at": "2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z",
     "url": "/football/matches/everton-vs-chelsea-2026-10-17/",
     "scoreline": "0-2",
     "condition": "finished"
    },
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "outcome_label": "draw",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": null,
     "our_snapshot": "3.6500",
     "our_snapshot_at": "2026-10-17T01:43:10.619Z",
     "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot",
     "closing": null,
     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "loss",
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    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "recorded_pre_match",
    "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "dates": {
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     "fragment_basis": "element",
     "source_page_at": "2026-10-16T20:50:24.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-10-17T01:46:25.634Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
    "origin_detail": null,
    "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "draw",
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     "market_key": "1x2",
     "choice_key": "X",
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     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "1X2, match result: draw"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
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     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Everton 0-2 Chelsea."
    },
    "settlements": [
     {
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      "series_key": "market_price",
      "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "1X2, match result",
      "choice": "draw",
      "decimal_odds": "3.6500",
      "odds_role": "market_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "loss",
      "result_words": "Lost",
      "change_hundredths": -10000,
      "executed_at": "2026-10-18T05:50:44.755Z",
      "methodology_version": "2.2",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     }
    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Automation Bot",
     "publisher": "EPL Index",
     "forecaster": "Automation Bot",
     "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://eplindex.com/151503/everton-vs-chelsea-match-preview-latest-team-news-and-predicted-lineups.html",
     "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
     "verdict_by": null,
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    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "a draw"
   }
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-10b3ef8a523600d11ed1ba29",
   "url": "/sources/eplindex-com/#pick-n-10b3ef8a523600d11ed1ba29",
   "match": "Everton v Chelsea",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/everton-vs-chelsea-2026-10-17/",
   "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": 9.7,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Everton 1-1 Chelsea",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "0-2",
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "ambiguous",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-10-16T20:50:24.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-17T01:46:25.634Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "record_part": "live",
   "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-10b3ef8a523600d11ed1ba29",
    "quote_text": "The best bet looks like the draw, and the score that fits best is 1-1.",
    "fragment_from": 4726,
    "fragment_to": 4796,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "rss",
     "url": "https://eplindex.com/151503/everton-vs-chelsea-match-preview-latest-team-news-and-predicted-lineups.html",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Automation Bot",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
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     "bundle_id": "116a2949d0189a5a7f940e8353094b43482d3ead736b9c4e4a7f904c2a032ab4",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": "2026-10-16T20:50:24.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-17T01:46:25.634Z",
    "executed_at": null,
    "statement_class": "score_forecast",
    "status": "ambiguous",
    "cause": "",
    "cause_code": "ambiguous",
    "event": {
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     "display_name": "Everton — Chelsea",
     "competition_name": "Premier League",
     "starts_at": "2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z",
     "url": "/football/matches/everton-vs-chelsea-2026-10-17/",
     "scoreline": "0-2",
     "condition": "finished"
    },
    "market_label": "Correct score",
    "outcome_label": "Everton 1-1 Chelsea",
    "odds_set": {
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     "our_snapshot_at": null,
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     "closing": null,
     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": null,
    "result": "loss",
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    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "recorded_pre_match",
    "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "dates": {
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     "fragment_basis": "element",
     "source_page_at": "2026-10-16T20:50:24.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-10-17T01:46:25.634Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
    "origin_detail": null,
    "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "added_on": null,
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    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Correct score",
     "choice": "Everton 1-1 Chelsea",
     "author_odds": null,
     "market_key": "correct_score_market",
     "choice_key": "1-1",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "Correct score: Everton 1-1 Chelsea"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
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     "scoreline": "0-2",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "Did not match: the final score was Everton 0-2 Chelsea."
    },
    "settlements": [
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      "series_key": "derived_series",
      "series_label": "Forecast Record reconstruction from the predicted score",
      "derived": true,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": false,
      "market_label": "1X2, match result",
      "choice": "draw",
      "decimal_odds": null,
      "odds_role": null,
      "stake_hundredths": null,
      "status": "skipped",
      "status_text": "Not executed: ",
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      "methodology_version": "2.2",
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      "replaced": false
     }
    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "prediction",
    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Automation Bot",
     "publisher": "EPL Index",
     "forecaster": "Automation Bot",
     "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://eplindex.com/151503/everton-vs-chelsea-match-preview-latest-team-news-and-predicted-lineups.html",
     "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
     "verdict_by": null,
     "verdict_line": null
    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "Everton 1-1 Chelsea"
   }
  }
 ],
 "lead_time": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "threshold_hours": 2.0,
  "picks": 2,
  "before_kickoff": 2,
  "after_kickoff": 0,
  "at_least_2h": 2,
  "share_2h_plus": 100.0,
  "median_hours": 9.7,
  "min_hours": 9.7,
  "max_hours": 9.7,
  "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off."
 },
 "baseline": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "rule": "recorded-line-1.0",
  "state": "settled",
  "picks": 1,
  "settled_picks_all": 1,
  "excluded": {
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  },
  "staked_hundredths": 10000,
  "author_net_hundredths": -10000,
  "favourite_net_hundredths": 11500,
  "difference_hundredths": -21500,
  "author_return_percent": -100.0,
  "favourite_return_percent": 115.0,
  "author_hit_rate": 0.0,
  "favourite_hit_rate": 100.0,
  "picked_favourite_share": 0.0,
  "by_market": [
   {
    "market_code": "1x2",
    "picks": 1,
    "staked_hundredths": 10000,
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