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 "heading": "Canada Sports Betting: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "5 settled picks by Canada Sports Betting Soccer Picks archived before kick-off across 3 matches, 20 Jan 2026 – 5 May 2026: won 2 of 5.",
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  "body": "Forecast Record restored 5 settled archived picks by Canada Sports Betting Soccer Picks from copies archived before kick-off, across 3 matches between 20 January and 5 May 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 2 of 5 settled archived picks. Of the 5 predictions we hold for Canada Sports Betting Soccer Picks, 5 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
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    "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:05:10.968Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-ab1746d60ae6cb05820b18e3",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-ab1746d60ae6cb05820b18e3",
   "quote_text": "Injuries: Nketiah (Thigh), Guessand (Knee)",
   "fragment_from": 5483,
   "fragment_to": 5525,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "rss",
    "url": "https://www.canadasportsbetting.ca/news/soccer/manchester-city-vs-crystal-palace-prediction-odds-may-13/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": null,
    "authorship": "unknown",
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   },
   "published_at": "2026-05-11T14:44:03.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:05:10.968Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "ambiguous",
   "cause": "",
   "cause_code": "ambiguous",
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "element",
    "source_page_at": "2026-05-11T14:44:03.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:05:10.968Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-bfc4ac721419adda7992de16",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-bfc4ac721419adda7992de16",
   "quote_text": "Predicted Lineup: Henderson; Lacroix, Chadi Riad, Canvot; Mitchell, Wharton, Kamada, Munoz; Pino,",
   "fragment_from": 5371,
   "fragment_to": 5468,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "rss",
    "url": "https://www.canadasportsbetting.ca/news/soccer/manchester-city-vs-crystal-palace-prediction-odds-may-13/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": null,
    "authorship": "unknown",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "9c0172855cc7a9bde6ecb4d94de30f6cca1d0dea6f53e27fbde1fb02b9a4fcbb",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2026-05-11T14:44:03.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:05:10.968Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "ambiguous",
   "cause": "",
   "cause_code": "ambiguous",
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2026-05-11T14:44:03.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "element",
    "source_page_at": "2026-05-11T14:44:03.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:05:10.968Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-8b5023d2b2282be28a614e83",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-8b5023d2b2282be28a614e83",
   "quote_text": "Injuries: Gvardiol (Calf), Dias (Thigh)",
   "fragment_from": 4698,
   "fragment_to": 4737,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "rss",
    "url": "https://www.canadasportsbetting.ca/news/soccer/manchester-city-vs-crystal-palace-prediction-odds-may-13/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": null,
    "authorship": "unknown",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "9c0172855cc7a9bde6ecb4d94de30f6cca1d0dea6f53e27fbde1fb02b9a4fcbb",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2026-05-11T14:44:03.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:05:10.968Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "ambiguous",
   "cause": "",
   "cause_code": "ambiguous",
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2026-05-11T14:44:03.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "element",
    "source_page_at": "2026-05-11T14:44:03.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:05:10.968Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-2930b17c2f6d12b76114dded",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-2930b17c2f6d12b76114dded",
   "quote_text": "Predicted Lineup: Donnarumma; O’Riley, Khusanov, Guehi, Matheus Nunes; Nico Gonzalez, B. Silva;",
   "fragment_from": 4570,
   "fragment_to": 4665,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "rss",
    "url": "https://www.canadasportsbetting.ca/news/soccer/manchester-city-vs-crystal-palace-prediction-odds-may-13/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": null,
    "authorship": "unknown",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "9c0172855cc7a9bde6ecb4d94de30f6cca1d0dea6f53e27fbde1fb02b9a4fcbb",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2026-05-11T14:44:03.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:05:10.968Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "ambiguous",
   "cause": "",
   "cause_code": "ambiguous",
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2026-05-11T14:44:03.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "element",
    "source_page_at": "2026-05-11T14:44:03.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:05:10.968Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "standing": null,
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 5,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 5,
  "found_post_match": 0,
  "of_them_source_reported": 0,
  "live_count": 0,
  "date_count": 3,
  "span_from": "2026-01-20",
  "span_to": "2026-05-05",
  "line_text": "restored history: 5, of which pre-match archive 5",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League and Champions League matches between 20 January 2026 and 5 May 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 5. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 5. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 0. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 5,
   "share": "0.4"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 4,
    "roi": "-5.5000",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "n": 2,
    "roi": "77.8700",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 5,
    "roi": "-28.0000",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Premier League",
   "Champions League"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 2 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 3 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged."
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
    "basis": "closing",
    "basis_words": "the closing market price of the same selection (restored history)",
    "basis_short": "Closing market price (restored)",
    "compared": 2,
    "above": 2,
    "above_share_percent": "100.0",
    "below": 0,
    "within": 0,
    "median_difference_percent": "6.4",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated",
    "sentence": "The author's stated price against the closing price of the same selection: median +6.4% over 2 picks. The price available to followers is the market price, shown separately."
   }
  ],
  "examples": [
   {
    "url": "/sources/canada-sports-betting/#pick-n-b97cd1f1a1688716a134972c",
    "basis": "closing",
    "stated": "1.48",
    "market": "1.38",
    "difference_percent": "7.1"
   },
   {
    "url": "/sources/canada-sports-betting/#pick-n-f22eefef5516b59d1edc3de4",
    "basis": "closing",
    "stated": "2.30",
    "market": "2.17",
    "difference_percent": "5.7"
   }
  ],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "editorial",
  "entity_words": "Editorial source",
  "source": {
   "name": "canadasportsbetting.ca",
   "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260119201344id_/https://www.canadasportsbetting.ca/news/soccer/champions-league-soccer-odds-inter-milan-arsenal-best-bet/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-09-28",
  "observed_to": "2026-09-30",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
  "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
  "restored": true,
  "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
  "headline_part": "archived",
  "settled_picks": 5,
  "matches": 3,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -14000,
  "staked_hundredths": 50000,
  "return_percent": "-28.00",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2026-01-20",
  "period_to": "2026-05-05",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 5 settled archived picks by Canada Sports Betting Soccer Picks from copies archived before kick-off, across 3 matches between 20 January and 5 May 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 2 of 5 settled archived picks. Of the 5 predictions we hold for Canada Sports Betting Soccer Picks, 5 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled archived picks",
    "value": "5",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "3",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−140 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "value": "−28.0%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": null
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": null,
   "archived": {
    "part": "archived",
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
    "settled_picks": 5,
    "matches": 3,
    "match_dates": 3,
    "period_from": "2026-01-20",
    "period_to": "2026-05-05",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -14000,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-05-05",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -14000,
     "after_picks": 5
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-04-25",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 6000,
     "after_picks": 3
    },
    "line_drawn": false,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2026-01-20",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-04-25",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 6000,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-05-05",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -14000,
      "n": 5,
      "picks": 2
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record restored 5 settled archived picks by Canada Sports Betting Soccer Picks from copies archived before kick-off, across 3 matches between 20 January and 5 May 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 2 of 5 settled archived picks. Of the 5 predictions we hold for Canada Sports Betting Soccer Picks, 5 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/sources/canada-sports-betting/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "retro-1.1"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 5,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 0,
   "proven_predictions": 5,
   "proven_checked": 5,
   "proven_measured": 5,
   "proven_dates": 3,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 5,
     "checked": 5,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 5,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 3,
      "net_points_hundredths": -14000,
      "staked_hundredths": 50000,
      "return_percent": "-28.00",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2026-01-20",
      "period_to": "2026-05-05",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
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       "return_other_percent": "-5.50",
       "settled_excluding_void": 4,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -4000,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -2200,
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       "period_to": "2026-05-05"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price, aggregator",
       "series_code": "retro_market_closing",
       "picks": 2,
       "return_main_percent": "80.00",
       "return_other_percent": "77.87",
       "settled_excluding_void": 2,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 16000,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 15574,
       "period_from": "2026-04-25",
       "period_to": "2026-04-25"
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     ],
     "score": {
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      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
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      "priced": 5
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 5,
      "won": 2,
      "won_percent": "40.0",
      "implied_percent": "50.0",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "47.6"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "51.1"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "52.5"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
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  ],
  "interval_low": null,
  "interval_high": null,
  "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 20 January – 5 May 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1",
  "record_from": "2026-01-20",
  "record_to": "2026-05-05"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
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   "kickoff": "2026-05-05T19:00:00.000Z",
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   "lead_hours": -3548.0,
   "market_code": "both_teams_score",
   "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.95",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "1-0",
   "reason": null,
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   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
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   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
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   "evidence": {
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    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
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    },
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    "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:01.437Z",
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    },
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     "closing": "1.9050",
     "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
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    },
    "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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    "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
    "added_on": "Added to our record on 30 Sep 2026",
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Both teams to score",
     "choice": "yes",
     "author_odds": "1.95",
     "market_key": "both_teams_score",
     "choice_key": "yes",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.95"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
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     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Arsenal 1-0 Atlético Madrid."
    },
    "settlements": [
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      "series_key": "retro_author_price",
      "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Both teams to score",
      "choice": "yes",
      "decimal_odds": "1.95",
      "odds_role": "author_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
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      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:01.431Z",
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     },
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      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
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      "choice": "yes",
      "decimal_odds": "1.9050",
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      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Editorial Team CSB",
     "publisher": "canadasportsbetting.ca",
     "forecaster": "Editorial Team CSB",
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     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
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    "choice_words": "yes (Both teams to score)"
   }
  },
  {
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   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
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   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:00:27.963Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
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   "in_headline": true,
   "attribution": null,
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   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
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    "source_info": {
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    "statement_class": "priced",
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    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
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     "scoreline": "1-0"
    },
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
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    "odds_set": {
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     "our_snapshot": null,
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     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": "4.2000",
     "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "loss",
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    "executed_by": "ours",
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     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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    "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
    "added_on": "Added to our record on 30 Sep 2026",
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "draw",
     "author_odds": "3.9",
     "market_key": "1x2",
     "choice_key": "X",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "1X2, match result: draw at 3.9"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
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     "scoreline": "1-0",
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     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
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      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "1X2, match result",
      "choice": "draw",
      "decimal_odds": "3.9",
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      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:01.418Z",
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     },
     {
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      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "1X2, match result",
      "choice": "draw",
      "decimal_odds": "4.2000",
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      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
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    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
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     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://www.canadasportsbetting.ca/news/soccer/arsenal-atletico-madrid-may-05-odds-predictions/",
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     "verdict_by": null,
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    },
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    "choice_words": "a draw"
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  },
  {
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   "kickoff": "2026-04-25T16:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
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   "author_said": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: under 2.5 at 2.3",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "1-0",
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   "points_hundredths": 12000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
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   "published_at": "2026-04-23T20:00:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:28:36.280Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
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   "evidence": {
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    "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:28:36.280Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:20:40.228Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
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    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
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     "url": null,
     "scoreline": "1-0"
    },
    "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
    "outcome_label": "under 2.5",
    "odds_set": {
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     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": "2.1750",
     "closing_source": "aggregator closing price"
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "win",
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    "executed_by": "ours",
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    },
    "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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    "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
    "added_on": "Added to our record on 28 Sep 2026",
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 "number_changes": [
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    "composition_hash": "b9f490cf171693ba2909c718fc0bb0ee6472c1b11c25f5957a5b60da581dedc3",
    "text": "−40.00 points on 4 settled picks across 3 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
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    "return_percent": "-28.00",
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    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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    "composition_hash": "a4ac87efad9e8b33004dc7236710e14a87f446d5af18124b351443fd3a16ec0a",
    "text": "−140.00 points on 5 settled picks across 3 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
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    "text": "−140.00 points on 5 settled picks across 3 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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    "composition_hash": "b9f490cf171693ba2909c718fc0bb0ee6472c1b11c25f5957a5b60da581dedc3",
    "text": "−40.00 points on 4 settled picks across 3 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
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    "text": "−22.00 points on 4 settled picks across 2 matches · author's stated odds, restored · method retro-1.0"
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    "text": "−140.00 points on 5 settled picks across 3 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
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