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 "heading": "Apuestas Deportivas Futbol Pronosticos: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "6 settled picks by Apuestas Deportivas Futbol Pronosticos recorded before kick-off across 6 matches, 24 Oct 2026 – 4 Nov 2026.",
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  "body": "Forecast Record recorded 6 settled live picks by Apuestas Deportivas Futbol Pronosticos before kick-off across 6 matches between 24 October and 4 November 2026. Won 4 of 5 non-void picks at our recorded market prices. Of the 49 predictions we hold for Apuestas Deportivas Futbol Pronosticos, 30 are linked to matches: 29 were recorded by us before kick-off and 1 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
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 "data_date": "2026-11-07T18:12:33.028Z",
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   },
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   },
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   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
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    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-668d91a45c61895c18a621a6",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-668d91a45c61895c18a621a6",
   "quote_text": "🔗 Apuesta aquí ➡️1XBET",
   "fragment_from": 110,
   "fragment_to": 132,
   "quote_allowed": true,
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   "published_at": "2026-10-24T18:48:10.000Z",
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   },
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    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-77d98ab5d60826b73d5ce727",
   "url": "/sources/apuestas-futbol-deportivas/picks/2/#pick-n-77d98ab5d60826b73d5ce727",
   "quote_text": "1.59\n\nFutebol⚽️ Mexico. Liga MX\n\nAtlante - Atletico San Luis\n\n➡️ 2X",
   "fragment_from": 0,
   "fragment_to": 67,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "telegram",
    "url": "https://t.me/Apuestas_Futbol_Deportivas/25845",
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   "published_at": "2026-10-24T00:40:29.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-24T18:14:42.336Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "not_supported",
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   "cause_code": "not_supported",
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   },
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    "detected_at": "2026-10-24T18:14:42.336Z",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
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   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-04f985a78788b6969dcc840d",
   "url": "/sources/apuestas-futbol-deportivas/picks/2/#pick-n-04f985a78788b6969dcc840d",
   "quote_text": "➡️ Ambos equipos anotaran No",
   "fragment_from": 81,
   "fragment_to": 109,
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    "medium": "telegram",
    "url": "https://t.me/Apuestas_Futbol_Deportivas/25832",
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   "published_at": "2026-10-23T20:03:31.000Z",
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   "cause_code": "not_supported",
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   },
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   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
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  }
 ],
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   {
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      "nid": "n-bc89f60c6f2fcbc124902a8d",
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      "match": "Deportivo Cali v Boyacá Chicó FC",
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      "url": "/sources/apuestas-futbol-deportivas/picks/3/#pick-n-91d9570e3d47226cd91b4559"
     },
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      "match": "Atlético Bucaramanga v Atlético Nacional",
      "said_text": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.7",
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      "url": "/sources/apuestas-futbol-deportivas/picks/3/#pick-n-94c824021944457617455335"
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    "badge": {
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      {
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    },
    "profile_anchor": "title-64216a3c5068",
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     "contract_version": 1,
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     "unpriced": 3,
     "hits": 2,
     "probability": 0.289638,
     "one_in": 3,
     "log10": -0.54,
     "words": "1 in 3",
     "rule": "product of the market probabilities (1/price) of every pick in the run",
     "note": "market prices include the bookmaker margin, so the chance is slightly overstated — a cautious figure"
    },
    "embed_anchor": "title-correct-run"
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  ],
  "publication_mode": "top20",
  "empty_reason": null,
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  "header_titles": [
   {
    "title_id": "zk-64216a3c5068d3d0fc11",
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    "title_tier": "dated_record",
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    "tier": null,
    "provenance": "live",
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   {
    "code_name": "S-01",
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    "event_at": "2026-11-03",
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-64216a3c5068"
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  "history": [
   {
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    "cause": "recomputed after a correction to the record",
    "provenance": "live"
   }
  ]
 },
 "retro": null,
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)",
    "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick",
    "compared": 5,
    "above": 1,
    "above_share_percent": "20.0",
    "below": 1,
    "within": 3,
    "median_difference_percent": "2.5",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated"
   }
  ],
  "examples": [
   {
    "url": "/sources/apuestas-futbol-deportivas/picks/3/#pick-n-0de3e69033986b82d08c92fc",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "1.86",
    "market": "2.02",
    "difference_percent": "-7.9"
   },
   {
    "url": "/sources/apuestas-futbol-deportivas/picks/3/#pick-n-86ef107c586b05e263de5e38",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "1.73",
    "market": "1.64",
    "difference_percent": "5.5"
   }
  ],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "t.me",
   "url": "https://t.me/Apuestas_Futbol_Deportivas/26200"
  },
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  "observed_to": "2026-11-07",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price",
  "restored": false,
  "headline_kind": "live_snapshot",
  "headline_part": "live",
  "settled_picks": 6,
  "matches": 6,
  "void": 1,
  "net_points_hundredths": 24800,
  "staked_hundredths": 50000,
  "return_percent": "49.60",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2026-10-24",
  "period_to": "2026-11-04",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "2.2",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 6 settled live picks by Apuestas Deportivas Futbol Pronosticos before kick-off across 6 matches between 24 October and 4 November 2026. Won 4 of 5 non-void picks at our recorded market prices. Of the 49 predictions we hold for Apuestas Deportivas Futbol Pronosticos, 30 are linked to matches: 29 were recorded by us before kick-off and 1 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled live picks",
    "value": "6",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": "1 void"
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "6",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "+248 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "value": "+49.6%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": null
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": {
    "part": "live",
    "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.",
    "settled_picks": 6,
    "matches": 6,
    "match_dates": 5,
    "period_from": "2026-10-24",
    "period_to": "2026-11-04",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": 24800,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-10-24",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 8333,
     "after_picks": 1
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-11-04",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 24800,
     "after_picks": 6
    },
    "line_drawn": false,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2026-10-24",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 8333,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-30",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 18533,
      "n": 2,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-02",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 18533,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-03",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 15625,
      "n": 5,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-04",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 24800,
      "n": 6,
      "picks": 1
     }
    ]
   },
   "archived": null
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record recorded 6 settled live picks by Apuestas Deportivas Futbol Pronosticos before kick-off across 6 matches between 24 October and 4 November 2026. Won 4 of 5 non-void picks at our recorded market prices. Of the 49 predictions we hold for Apuestas Deportivas Futbol Pronosticos, 30 are linked to matches: 29 were recorded by us before kick-off and 1 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/sources/apuestas-futbol-deportivas/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "2.2"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 49,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 19,
   "proven_predictions": 29,
   "proven_checked": 29,
   "proven_measured": 6,
   "proven_dates": 12,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 29,
     "checked": 29,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 6,
      "void": 1,
      "matches": 6,
      "net_points_hundredths": 24800,
      "staked_hundredths": 50000,
      "return_percent": "49.60",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2026-10-24",
      "period_to": "2026-11-04",
      "method_version": "2.2",
      "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0",
      "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0",
      "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 1
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "author_price",
       "picks": 5,
       "return_main_percent": "49.60",
       "return_other_percent": "48.80",
       "settled_excluding_void": 5,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 24800,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 24400,
       "period_from": "2026-10-24",
       "period_to": "2026-11-04"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price",
       "series_code": "closing_live",
       "picks": 5,
       "return_main_percent": "36.50",
       "return_other_percent": "35.68",
       "settled_excluding_void": 4,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 14600,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 14273,
       "period_from": "2026-10-24",
       "period_to": "2026-11-04"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 29,
      "priced": 6
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 5,
      "won": 4,
      "won_percent": "80.0",
      "implied_percent": "55.1",
      "left_out": 1,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 2,
        "picks": 3,
        "implied_percent": "55.0"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "58.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Team goals",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "52.2"
       }
      ]
     },
     "reviewed_after": {
      "predictions": 18,
      "right": 9,
      "wrong": 8,
      "other": 1
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 1,
     "checked": 1,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 1,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
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   "n-0f43bf54343d15b513a19cec",
   "n-86ef107c586b05e263de5e38",
   "n-94c824021944457617455335",
   "n-ae775895194268b01f7d996c",
   "n-afba45f2ed7c1df0f8e6d50f"
  ],
  "interval_low": null,
  "interval_high": null,
  "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 24 October – 4 November 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2",
  "record_from": "2026-10-24",
  "record_to": "2026-11-07"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
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   "match": "PSV Eindhoven v Club Brugge KV",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/psv-eindhoven-vs-club-brugge-kv-2026-11-04/",
   "kickoff": "2026-11-04T20:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Champions League",
   "lead_hours": 1.5,
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   "author_said": "Team goals over/under 1.5: Club Brugge KV over 1.5 at 2",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
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   "series_code": "market_price",
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   "published_at": "2026-11-04T18:28:23.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-11-04T18:31:10.475Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "record_part": "live",
   "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off",
   "in_headline": true,
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   "favourite": null,
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   "evidence": {
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    "fragment_from": 0,
    "fragment_to": 87,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
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     "url": "https://t.me/Apuestas_Futbol_Deportivas/26135",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Apuestas Deportivas Futbol Pronosticos",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
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    "detected_at": "2026-11-04T18:31:10.475Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-04T18:32:51.026Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
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    },
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     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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     "fragment_basis": "element",
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     "flags": [],
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    },
    "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
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    "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "added_on": null,
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    "author_claim": {
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     "choice": "Club Brugge KV over 1.5",
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     "market_key": "team_total",
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     "in_words": "Team goals over/under 1.5: Club Brugge KV over 1.5 at 2"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
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     "in_words": "Won: the final score was PSV Eindhoven 1-2 Club Brugge KV."
    },
    "settlements": [
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      "series_key": "author_price",
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      "derived": false,
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      "market_label": "Team goals over/under 1.5",
      "choice": "Club Brugge KV over 1.5",
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      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
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      "methodology_version": "2.2",
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     },
     {
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     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
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    "choice_words": "Club Brugge KV over 1.5 (Team goals over/under 1.5)"
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   "competition": "UEFA Champions League",
   "lead_hours": 1.2,
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   "quote": null,
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   "recorded_at": "2026-11-03T18:46:17.142Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "record_part": "live",
   "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off",
   "in_headline": true,
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   "evidence": {
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    "fragment_from": 0,
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    ],
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    "choice_words": "over 4 (Over/Under 4 goals)"
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   "url": "/sources/apuestas-futbol-deportivas/picks/3/#pick-n-94c824021944457617455335",
   "match": "Atlético Bucaramanga v Atlético Nacional",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/atletico-bucaramanga-vs-atletico-nacional-2026-11-03/",
   "kickoff": "2026-11-03T01:15:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Primera A",
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