{ "schema_name": "page", "schema_version": "2.0", "page_type": "methodology", "url": "/methodology/", "canonical": "/methodology/", "language": "en", "hreflang": [], "translations": [], "heading": "How Forecast Record Checks Predictions, Prices and Results", "description": "What our numbers measure: what was predicted, who made the prediction, when we captured it, which price was used and what could change the result.", "first_paragraph": { "body": "This page answers five questions about every number Forecast Record publishes: what was predicted, who made the prediction, when we captured it, which price was used and what could change the result. Method version 2.2 has been in force since 11 October 2026, and the rules below describe what the code actually does (source: our own methodology record).", "key_number": "2.2", "data": "2026-10-11", "source_info": "our own methodology record", "brand": "Forecast Record" }, "indexable": true, "noindex_reason": null, "indexing_threshold": { "settled_count": 0, "date_count": 0, "required_settled": 0, "required_dates": 0 }, "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z", "content_hash": null, "meaning_hash": "a9c70ac64ab20b8aa8720150f8e6a1843038822e53307eda70c21d3bbe306b59", "dependency_group": "methodology", "release_id": "20261107-195223", "markup": [ { "type_code": "WebPage", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Organization", "allowed": true, "cause": null } ], "exports": [ { "type_code": "json", "url": "/methodology/index.json", "bytes": null } ], "modules": { "affiliate": false, "api": true, "compare_yourself": false }, "affiliate_block": null, "restrictions": { "name_withdrawn": false, "tracker_number": null, "withdrawn_quotes": [], "removed_at": null, "cause": null, "suspended_records": [], "withdrawal_log_number": 0 }, "page_links": { "methodology": "/methodology/", "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/", "source_coverage": "/coverage/", "corrections_log": "/corrections/", "api": "/api/", "claim": "/claim/" }, "text_blocks": [ { "heading": "What a measurement here means", "anchor_id": "what-a-measurement-means", "revision": "1.0", "body": "We record what a tipster published, price it under a published rule (for the live record, the market price in our own price feed at the moment we first recorded the pick, always before kick-off) and settle it against the final score. Every number on this site therefore has four things attached to it: the sample size, the window, the status of the data and the version of the method.\n\n- Measured: directly observed in a source or timestamped capture;\n- Stated: reported by the source; not independently confirmed;\n- Calculated: derived from the listed inputs under a published rule;\n- Unknown: not established from the evidence available. Unknown is never written as zero.\n\nA status belongs to one field, not to a whole record: the time of our own capture is measured, while a publication date written on the page is stated." }, { "heading": "What counts as a pick and what is executed", "anchor_id": "what-counts", "revision": "1.1", "body": "A statement with an explicit price and stake is executed in two series: at the price the author stated and at our own market snapshot. A statement that names a pick without a price is executed at our market snapshot only, and the return at the author's own price is reported as not stated. A correct-score forecast is measured for score accuracy, and a separate derived series settles the 1X2 outcome implied by that score. That derivation is a Forecast Record rule and is reported apart from the author's own market return. An opinion, a conditional or a joke is kept as an observation and never executed. Only statements about an event are counted. Advertising and site boilerplate captured from a source page (bonus offers, betting buttons, affiliate disclosures, newsletter prompts, score widgets, menus) are not the author's words and are not listed as statements. On a match page, the split of what tipsters and sources picked counts each tipster with 10 or more predictions checked against the final score to date once per market, with the pick made before kick-off; predictions from tipsters and sources with fewer are listed separately, without shares." }, { "heading": "What is executed and what is not", "anchor_id": "what-is-executed", "revision": "2.2", "valid_from": "2026-10-11", "body": "A statement is executed only on an exact match of event, market, line and pick, and only if we saw it before the event started. Our timestamp is the moment the material entered our archive: a publication time at the source can be rewritten, ours cannot. A statement without a price is executed at the market price at the moment we first recorded it, always before kick-off (the rule is under ROI below); without an eligible quote nothing is executed. The same pick repeated across several channels is one observation and one bet per series. Reprocessing the same signal never creates a second bet." }, { "heading": "ROI", "anchor_id": "roi-rule", "revision": "2.2", "body": "ROI is the net result divided by the total staked, at an equal stake of 100 points per settled pick. It is published separately for each series: at the price the author stated, and at the independent odds snapshot of the same selection. Void picks are excluded from the denominator and reported separately. The headline number of a profile follows one fixed rule (from 9 October 2026). For the live record it is the return at our recorded market price. From method version 2.2 (11 October 2026) that price is the median of bookmakers' prices for the same selection in our price feed at the moment we first recorded the pick, from a quote no older than 5 minutes; betting exchanges, prediction markets and prices of 1.01 or lower are left out. If there is no such price at that moment, the first price within 2 hours after it is used, still before kick-off. Otherwise the pick has no return at the market price, and no other price is substituted. The delay of that price after the record is under a minute at the median: the price is taken when we record the pick. Figures under the earlier rule stay in the corrections log. The author's quoted price and the closing price are shown as separate lines on exactly the same picks. Without a live return, a profile shows a reconstruction at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only; picks first found after the match never make the headline number. Half-won and half-lost picks on quarter-goal Asian-handicap lines are settled picks and count in full (from version 2.1). The two returns are compared on a common sample, and the share of each sample that falls into that common set is shown next to the number.\n\nOne set per number: money figures (return, average price, cumulative result, drawdown, bankroll) belong to one series and name it; outcome figures (share of settled picks that won, share voided, correct-score accuracy, runs) count each prediction once, even when it was settled in two series.", "valid_from": "2026-10-11" }, { "heading": "Confidence interval", "anchor_id": "interval", "revision": "1.0", "body": "Bets on the same match are not independent, so the 95% interval is produced by a clustered bootstrap over matches with a fixed seed. Where there are too few matches to resample, the interval is reported as not estimated rather than guessed." }, { "heading": "The points bankroll", "anchor_id": "bank", "revision": "2.1", "body": "Every tracked author starts with 10,000 points in each series and stakes 100 per qualifying pick. When the free balance falls below 100 and no pick is waiting for its result, another 10,000 points are added and the remainder is kept. Top-ups are counted and drawn separately and are never mixed into the result. Each bankroll on a profile names its series, and the bankroll shown is the starting points plus top-ups plus the net result of settled picks; stakes on picks still waiting for a result are part of it and are shown as such. Its history is read from the settlement journal in order, one point per settlement (version 2.1; before it every past point repeated the current balance). No money is involved anywhere on this site: the bankroll is a unit of measurement, not a wallet.", "valid_from": "2026-09-28" }, { "heading": "Settlement", "anchor_id": "settlement-rule", "revision": "1.0", "body": "An outcome is settled from the final score of the event, as reported by our match-data providers, under the rule published for that market: 1X2 and totals are settled on regulation time only. A match that was abandoned, awarded or never played is void, not a loss. A restatement of the result by the data provider produces a new version of the settlement, not a second bet: the previous version is reversed in the ledger and the change is visible in the corrections log." }, { "heading": "Which markets we settle", "anchor_id": "markets", "revision": "2.1", "body": "We settle match result, double chance, draw no bet, Asian and European handicaps, total goals, team goals, both teams to score (also combined with the result), odd/even goals, correct score, total corners, corner handicap, total cards and both teams to be carded, each on regulation time, under the rule published for that market. Player markets are settled too: \"player to score\" and \"player shots on target\". The player is identified only from the two squads of that match in our result data, and only when the quoted name matches exactly one player; if it matches none or several, the pick is recorded but not settled. A player who did not play is void. Player statistics are only available for the whole match, so a match that went to extra time leaves player markets unsettled. Of the player-shot markets we settle only shots \"on target\"; a \"total shots\" pick is recorded and left unsettled for now, with that reason shown on the pick. A bet builder or multiple is a set of legs: its outcome is known only when every leg is settled (any lost leg means it lost), and it is never executed as a bet, because no independent price for the combination exists. The card market quoted by our price source counts a red card as two, while our rule counts it as one, so no independent price is used for total cards. Picks recorded before this version were never re-priced or re-staked: where a published card gave the wrong reason for a missing bet, the correction log records it.", "valid_from": "2026-09-28" }, { "heading": "Where the results come from", "anchor_id": "result-sources", "revision": "1.0", "body": "Results of matches are currently read from a commercial sports-data aggregator covering 19 football competitions; scores are read from regulation time. Competitions it does not cover are read from a second commercial football-data provider covering 34 competitions; scores are read from regulation time. If both cover a match, we compare the scores. A mismatch leaves the match unsettled until they agree. Our prices are independent market snapshots, taken from a multi-bookmaker aggregator before the event and stored per bookmaker. The closing line comes from the same market data where supplied, or from our last snapshot before kick-off. If the aggregator misses a match or market, we use a second independent provider, kept separate. For restored history, that second provider's price is the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), not a closing price. Our market snapshots, and the priced live record, start on 25 September 2026. Settlements of the live record so far, one per price series, were made from: a commercial sports-data aggregator covering 19 football competitions (18,884), a second commercial football-data provider covering 34 competitions (5,767), another result source (2,582). Restored history is settled in its own series, described below. 1,898 more executed picks are awaiting a confirmed result.\n\nEvery settlement records which provider supplied its final score, and changing provider does not rewrite the past: a settlement already made keeps the source it was made from. When a provider restates a score, the settlement gets a new version and the change appears in the corrections log. Scores are always read from regulation time: 90 minutes plus stoppage, never extra time or penalties, in any competition." }, { "heading": "Disputed prices", "anchor_id": "disputed-prices", "valid_from": "2026-10-10", "body": "A price the author states is compared with the market price of the same selection: our snapshot for the live record; for restored history, the aggregator closing price or, where there is none, the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off). When the two differ more than twofold (the author's price is more than twice the market price, or less than half of it), the price is marked \"price disputed\". A gap that large is almost never market movement: it usually means the price was read from a different market, a promotional offer or a misprint. A disputed price is left out of every return at the author's price and out of the \"Stated price vs market\" comparison, and the pick shows \"price disputed\" in the author's list of picks. It returns to both only after a manual check of the source confirms the price, and that decision is recorded with its date. The return at our market snapshot and the reconstruction at the last pre-match archive price do not use the author's price, so they are not affected.", "revision": "2.2" }, { "heading": "National-team matches", "anchor_id": "outside-coverage", "valid_from": "2026-10-10", "body": "The record covers club football and the national-team matches in its match calendar, such as friendlies. Predictions on the Nations League, World Cup and European qualifiers, the Africa Cup of Nations and similar tournaments stay in the author's record, labelled \"National-team match\", outside the settled record.", "revision": "2.2" }, { "heading": "Restored history", "anchor_id": "restored-history", "revision": "1.1", "body": "Part of some authors' history is restored rather than recorded. For a set of authors we re-read what they published before matches played between 1 August 2024 and 11 October 2026 — the Premier League first, then the Championship, League Cup, Champions League and Europa League — and settled it against the final score. Every pick carries the label of its strongest evidence of time, from one list used on every page. Submitted to us before kick-off: the author sent the prediction to us directly and we stamped the time when we received it; it belongs to the live record. Recorded by us before kick-off: we archived it ourselves before the match; this is the live record; only it appears in the live comparison table and the points bankroll, and only a live record can earn a position there. Archived before kick-off: an independent public web archive holds a copy of the page taken before kick-off, and the pick is in that copy. Source-reported history: the time and the pick are known only from the source's own history; it is used to check the source's own record and is never part of the evidenced total. Found after the match; date as stated by the source: found later and dated by the source's own publication date — the lowest of the levels of evidence. Evidence obtained after kick-off carries a second line, Added to our record on (date); the pre-match record of the match and of each author stays as it was.\n\nRestored picks are shown as a reconstruction at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), for picks archived before kick-off and picks found after the match separately. The author's own quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are separate lines on the same picks. Outcome accuracy is shown separately from return. From 9 October 2026 the minimum of 10 checked predictions on 2 dates a profile needs before it is indexed counts only the evidenced part of the record: picks recorded by us before kick-off and picks archived before kick-off. Every published profile has predictions in the evidenced part and states on its first screen how many of its predictions come from each part.\n\nSince 30 September 2026 restored history covers the Championship, League Cup, Champions League and Europa League as well, with prices back to August 2024. The last pre-match archive price is the median of each bookmaker's last price before kick-off, from at least two bookmakers, in a series of its own. Score forecasts are settled the way the live record settles them: on the exact-score market only when the author explicitly recommends the bet, and otherwise as the match result the score implies, in a series of its own, separate from the author's picks." }, { "heading": "Late-found picks, priced at publication time", "anchor_id": "late-found-picks", "revision": "1.0", "valid_from": "2026-09-30", "body": "A pick published before kick-off and found after the match has started stays outside the record kept before kick-off. Late-found picks form a separate series, priced at publication time, shown on the author's profile as its own line and marked on the pick itself.\n\nA late-found pick enters the series only if the time of publication is evidenced: by the platform's own timestamp (a post or a video), by the publisher's feed date checked against our own records (not later than our first capture, not later than kick-off and not more than 30 days before it), by our own copy of the page taken before kick-off, or by a copy in an independent public web archive taken before kick-off that contains the quoted words. For a web page the date the page shows about itself is not used as evidence; the moment used is the time of the archive copy, which can only be later than the real publication. Pages that list picks for several matches and pages whose date does not hold up against our own records are never included. Anything published after kick-off, such as in-play tips, is never included.\n\nAll or nothing: every late-found pick that meets these rules is included automatically, by one rule, before the result is read. A pick, once included, stays.\n\nThe price is the last market price recorded within 30 minutes before the evidenced moment of publication; a pick without such a price stays in the series unsettled. The series starts on 26 September 2026, 17:59 UTC; for earlier picks the closing price is shown for reference. The author's own stated price, where given, is a separate line, as everywhere on this site. Settlement uses the same final score and the same market rules as the live record. Late-found picks stay outside the live record, the rankings and the points bankroll, and the rule, not a person, decides which of them count." }, { "heading": "How captured files are kept", "anchor_id": "evidence-storage", "valid_from": "2026-10-14", "body": "Every captured file is kept in two separate places and checked by its fingerprint before it counts as stored. Files captured before 14 October 2026 were copied unchanged and checked the same way.", "revision": "2.2" }, { "heading": "Comparisons and positions", "anchor_id": "rankings", "revision": "1.1", "body": "A comparison table shows records over one window side by side. A live record meets the sample criteria when it has at least 30 settled picks (excluding voided ones) on at least 15 different matches within the window, priced at our recorded market price. In the tipster comparison, a position goes only to a live record with at least 30 settled picks, not counting voided ones, on at least 15 matches, from a tipster with an Established record; records without a position are listed by sample size, not by return. Levels within a market or competition (No.1, Top 3, Top 5, Top 10) and titles start at Tracked. Reconstructed history is shown in its own table and is never compared with live records. An author with no qualifying pick for 30 days keeps the profile with a note and leaves the current window. Nothing in a comparison is for sale." }, { "heading": "Reproducibility", "anchor_id": "reproducibility", "revision": "1.0", "body": "Every published number can be recomputed from the journal of bets and outcomes, and the recomputation has to produce the same number. That is a test the build runs against itself. Each metric carries the version of the method that produced it, and a change of method changes the version rather than the past." }, { "heading": "Seven days to reply", "anchor_id": "reply-window", "revision": "1.0", "valid_from": "2026-09-30", "body": "Authors can answer a record before search engines see it, and after any major change. We publish the answer word for word next to the record. A profile gets an address from its first recorded statement and stays hidden from search engines until it reaches the publication threshold. This gives time to check and answer the whole record before anyone finds it through search.\n\nA major change is a correction to a settled outcome, a profile's headline number, or the series a pick belongs to. We make it immediately. It appears in the corrections log with its date, the old value, and the new one. A reply sent within seven days is published as a reply to the change, next to the changed number; later replies appear next to the current numbers. The deadlines and form are on the right of reply page." }, { "heading": "How we measure our own visibility", "anchor_id": "visibility", "revision": "1.0", "body": "We also measure how search engines and AI assistants see us using a separate method: fixed questions, fixed surfaces, and failures kept apart from “not mentioned”. The full method is on its own page." } ], "faq": [ { "q": "How is a tipster's return on stakes (ROI) calculated?", "a": "The net result of the settled picks divided by the total staked, at 100 points per pick. Void picks are left out of the total staked. Each series has its own return: at the author's stated price and at our independent odds snapshot.", "anchor": "roi" }, { "q": "How is a pick settled?", "a": "A pick is settled from the result of the match under the rule published for its market; 1X2 and totals use regulation time. Won, Lost, Void, Half won and Half lost are the only outcomes. The net result is the sum of what each settled pick won or lost, in points.", "anchor": "settlement" }, { "q": "What is closing-line value (CLV)?", "a": "How a price compares with the closing price of the same selection: CLV = 100 × (price ÷ closing price − 1). For the author’s stated price, it is calculated wherever a closing price of the same selection exists and shown as a median under “Stated price vs market”. Where no closing price of the same selection exists, the CLV is unknown, not zero.", "anchor": "clv" }, { "q": "Where do the prices come from?", "a": "The median of bookmakers’ prices for the same selection in our price feed when we first recorded the pick, from a quote no older than 5 minutes. Betting exchanges, prediction markets and prices of 1.01 or lower are excluded. If there is no such price at that moment, we use the first price within 2 hours, provided it is before kick-off. Otherwise, the pick has no return at the market price, and no other price is substituted. A pick recorded before kick-off but checked only after kick-off settles the same way, at the price when we recorded it, and is marked “checked after kick-off”. This rule applies from method version 2.2 (11 October 2026); earlier figures stay in the corrections log. The snapshot records the market at that moment, not a promise that a reader could have got that price.", "anchor": "odds-snapshot" }, { "q": "What is the difference between a live and a restored record?", "a": "Every pick carries one of three labels: recorded by us before kick-off; restored from a pre-match web archive copy; found after the match with the date the source states. Only the first is the live record; the other two are shown in their own parts of every profile and never added to it. The headline number of a profile is the live record from 10 settled picks; until then it is the part archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices, with the live record so far shown beside it as picks won out of picks settled (rule of 14 October 2026). In the tipster comparison, a position goes only to a live record with at least 30 settled picks, not counting voided ones, on at least 15 matches, from a tipster with an Established record; records without a position are listed by sample size, not by return. Levels within a market or competition (No.1, Top 3, Top 5, Top 10) and titles start at Tracked.", "anchor": "origin" }, { "q": "Can a tipster delete losing picks to improve the record?", "anchor": "origin", "a": "Not in the live record: a pick enters it only if we recorded it before kick-off, with the page archived at that moment. A post deleted later stays in the record. Restored history is different: it is read later from pages still online, so an author can delete losing picks before we see them. That is why restored history is labelled, kept in its own series and never mixed with the live record." }, { "q": "Which records get a position?", "a": "The minimum sample a live record needs before it is marked as meeting the comparison criteria in a window. In the tipster comparison, a position goes only to a live record with at least 30 settled picks, not counting voided ones, on at least 15 matches, from a tipster with an Established record; records without a position are listed by sample size, not by return. Levels within a market or competition (No.1, Top 3, Top 5, Top 10) and titles start at Tracked.", "anchor": "threshold" }, { "q": "How is the uncertainty of a return estimated?", "a": "A 95% interval around a return, from a clustered bootstrap over matches. With too few matches it is reported as not estimated rather than guessed.", "anchor": "uncertainty" }, { "q": "What does \"unknown\" mean next to a number?", "a": "Each field carries one of four statuses. Measured: directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Stated: reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Calculated: derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Unknown: not established from the evidence available; never written as zero.", "anchor": "statuses" } ], "method_layout": { "contract_version": "1", "brief": [ "We record what a tipster or an editorial source publishes about a match, with the moment we first saw it.", "We keep the price the author stated and take our own market price for the same selection at the moment we first recorded the pick.", "After the match we settle each pick against the result under the rule for its market, at 100 points per pick.", "Every number carries its sample size, its window, the status of its data and the version of the method.", "Unknown is never written as zero, and a correction is always logged, never made silently." ], "definitions": [ { "anchor": "statement", "term": "Statement", "text": "A statement is a fragment of an author’s public text, video or audio that we found and recorded together with its source. The same fragment found twice is one statement. Source advertising and site boilerplate are not statements and stay out of the record.", "example": "One sentence in a match preview that names a score and a price is one statement; a line asking readers to sign up for a newsletter is not.", "version": "1.0" }, { "anchor": "prediction", "term": "Prediction", "text": "A prediction is a statement we could read as a pick on a specific match, market and selection: a priced pick, a pick without a price or a score forecast. Opinions and statements that are not about a match are not predictions. The same pick repeated by the same author on the same match is one prediction.", "example": "A preview sentence backing a 2-1 home win at a stated price is one prediction on the correct-score market; if the same author repeats that pick in a video, it is still one.", "version": "1.0" }, { "anchor": "qualifying-pick", "term": "Qualifying pick", "text": "A qualifying pick is a prediction that met the rules of a Forecast Record series: the market is one we can settle, the pick was recorded before kick-off and a price was available, so a level stake was placed. It is counted per series: the same prediction can qualify at the author’s stated price and not at an independent odds snapshot.", "example": "A correct-score pick with a stated price qualifies for the series at the author’s stated price even when no independent price for that score was available.", "version": "1.0" }, { "anchor": "settled-pick", "term": "Settled pick", "text": "A settled pick is a qualifying pick whose level stake has been settled against the final score: won, lost, half won, half lost or void. A pick waiting for its result is not settled. Returns are calculated on settled picks only, and voids are shown separately because they return the stake.", "example": "If that match finishes 2-2, the 2-1 pick becomes a settled pick with the outcome lost.", "version": "1.0" }, { "anchor": "match", "term": "Match", "text": "A match is one football fixture. Several predictions and several settled picks can belong to one match, so we always say how many matches a number covers: uncertainty is estimated per match, not per pick.", "example": "A result is described as 10 settled picks across 6 matches.", "version": "1.0" }, { "anchor": "roi", "term": "Return on stakes", "text": "The net result of the settled picks divided by the total staked, at 100 points per pick. Void picks are left out of the total staked. Each series has its own return: at the author's stated price and at our independent odds snapshot.", "example": "Ten settled picks at 100 points each are 1,000 points staked. If they return 1,080 points in total, the net result is +80 points and the return on stakes is +8.0%.", "version": null }, { "anchor": "settlement", "term": "Settlement and net result", "text": "A pick is settled from the result of the match under the rule published for its market; 1X2 and totals use regulation time. Won, Lost, Void, Half won and Half lost are the only outcomes. The net result is the sum of what each settled pick won or lost, in points.", "example": "A pick of “over 2.5 goals” at 1.90 on a match that ends 2-1 wins 90 points; on a match that ends 1-0 it loses 100 points.", "version": null }, { "anchor": "author-price", "term": "The author's stated price", "text": "The price the author published next to the pick. A return at this price shows what the author claimed; it assumes that price was available.", "example": "The author writes “Arsenal to win at 2.10”: 2.10 is the stated price.", "version": null }, { "anchor": "odds-snapshot", "term": "Independent odds snapshot", "text": "The median of bookmakers’ prices for the same selection in our price feed when we first recorded the pick, from a quote no older than 5 minutes. Betting exchanges, prediction markets and prices of 1.01 or lower are excluded. If there is no such price at that moment, we use the first price within 2 hours, provided it is before kick-off. Otherwise, the pick has no return at the market price, and no other price is substituted. A pick recorded before kick-off but checked only after kick-off settles the same way, at the price when we recorded it, and is marked “checked after kick-off”. This rule applies from method version 2.2 (11 October 2026); earlier figures stay in the corrections log. The snapshot records the market at that moment, not a promise that a reader could have got that price.", "example": "We recorded a pick at 15:30 GMT on Monday; the median bookmakers’ price for that selection in our feed at 15:28 GMT, two minutes earlier, was 1.80, so this series settles the pick at 1.80.", "version": null }, { "anchor": "clv", "term": "Closing-line value (CLV)", "text": "How a price compares with the closing price of the same selection: CLV = 100 × (price ÷ closing price − 1). For the author’s stated price, it is calculated wherever a closing price of the same selection exists and shown as a median under “Stated price vs market”. Where no closing price of the same selection exists, the CLV is unknown, not zero.", "example": "A pick quoted at 2.10 that closes at 1.95 has a CLV of 100 × (2.10 ÷ 1.95 − 1) = +7.7%.", "version": null }, { "anchor": "derived", "term": "Derived series", "text": "A Forecast Record series created by our rules from the author’s score: a predicted score also settles as a match-result pick for the side the score favours. It is shown separately and never added to the author’s own picks.", "example": "The author predicts USA 3-1 Peru and the match ends 4-1: the score prediction lost; the derived “USA to win” pick won.", "version": null }, { "anchor": "origin", "term": "Origin of a record", "text": "Every pick carries one of three labels: recorded by us before kick-off; restored from a pre-match web archive copy; found after the match with the date the source states. Only the first is the live record; the other two are shown in their own parts of every profile and never added to it. The headline number of a profile is the live record from 10 settled picks; until then it is the part archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices, with the live record so far shown beside it as picks won out of picks settled (rule of 14 October 2026). In the tipster comparison, a position goes only to a live record with at least 30 settled picks, not counting voided ones, on at least 15 matches, from a tipster with an Established record; records without a position are listed by sample size, not by return. Levels within a market or competition (No.1, Top 3, Top 5, Top 10) and titles start at Tracked.", "example": "A pick we archived on Friday for a Saturday match is recorded before kick-off. A pick we read on Monday from an old article is found after the match.", "version": null }, { "anchor": "statuses", "term": "Data status", "text": "Each field carries one of four statuses. Measured: directly observed in a source or timestamped capture. Stated: reported by the source; not independently confirmed. Calculated: derived from the listed inputs under a published rule. Unknown: not established from the evidence available; never written as zero.", "example": "The time of our own capture is measured; a publication date written on the page is stated; a return on stakes is calculated; a missing closing price makes CLV unknown.", "version": null }, { "anchor": "uncertainty", "term": "Uncertainty", "text": "A 95% interval around a return, from a clustered bootstrap over matches. With too few matches it is reported as not estimated rather than guessed.", "example": "A return of +12.0% with an interval from −20.0% to +40.0% means the sample is compatible with a loss as well as a gain.", "version": null }, { "anchor": "threshold", "term": "Comparison threshold", "text": "The minimum sample a live record needs before it is marked as meeting the comparison criteria in a window. In the tipster comparison, a position goes only to a live record with at least 30 settled picks, not counting voided ones, on at least 15 matches, from a tipster with an Established record; records without a position are listed by sample size, not by return. Levels within a market or competition (No.1, Top 3, Top 5, Top 10) and titles start at Tracked.", "example": null, "version": null }, { "anchor": "top-up", "term": "Top-up", "text": "When a points bankroll cannot cover the next 100-point stake, 10,000 points are added. Top-ups are counted separately and never mixed into the result.", "example": null, "version": null }, { "anchor": "drawdown", "term": "Drawdown", "text": "The largest fall of the cumulative result from a previous high, in points, within one series.", "example": "A result that goes from +300 to −200 before recovering has a drawdown of 500 points.", "version": null }, { "anchor": "overlap", "term": "Overlap of the two price series", "text": "The share of settled picks in one price series that were also settled in the other (the author’s stated price and our independent odds snapshot). The two returns are only directly comparable on that shared part; a low overlap means they describe different picks.", "example": "If 4 picks are settled at the author’s price and none of them could be priced by our snapshot, the overlap is 0.0%.", "version": null }, { "anchor": "brier", "term": "Probability accuracy", "text": "How close the stated chances are to what happened: high chances on picks that win and low chances on picks that lose score well, and confident chances on picks that lose score badly. It needs our own probability for each pick, so it is shown only once those probabilities are published.", "example": "A pick given a 60.0% chance that wins scores better than the same pick given 30.0%.", "version": null }, { "anchor": "attribution", "term": "Attribution", "text": "Who is speaking in the recorded source: the channel owner (the author of the column, feed or show), a guest, an unsigned editorial line of the channel or someone being quoted.", "example": null, "version": null }, { "anchor": "coverage", "term": "Coverage of a record", "text": "How much of what a source published we found and could use, step by step: statements read, predictions recognised in them, qualifying picks and settled picks. The sources covered are listed on the page “What we collect”.", "example": "A source with 200 statements read, 120 predictions, 40 qualifying picks and 30 settled picks has the coverage line 200 → 120 → 40 → 30.", "version": null }, { "anchor": "method-version", "term": "Method version", "text": "Every number carries the version of the method that produced it, for example “method v2.1”. A pick is placed under the version in force at that moment and keeps it, so a profile can say “picks placed under method v2.0” while its numbers are calculated under version 2.1: a new version recalculates the result and never creates a second bet. What changed in each version is listed under “Rules and versions”.", "example": "A pick placed on 27 September 2026 under version 2.0 and settled after 28 September 2026 reads “placed under method v2.0” and is calculated under version 2.1.", "version": null } ], "rules_intro": "The exact rules the code applies, with the version of each. Formulas and edge cases are folded; every part is already on this page.", "pages": [ { "title": "How we measure our own visibility", "url": "/methodology/visibility/", "text": "the questions, the surfaces, what is recorded and the limits" } ], "sections": [ { "anchor": "sources", "title": "Where the predictions come from", "intro": "We collect what tipsters and editorial sources publish on websites, feeds, videos and podcasts. Each statement is kept with its source and the author’s exact words. A prediction is a statement we can read as a pick on one match, market and selection; opinions and lines that are not about a match are not predictions. Sources that returned nothing are shown separately, not as zero; anything we did not use is listed with the reason.", "definitions": [ "statement", "prediction", "coverage" ], "rules": [ "what-counts" ] }, { "anchor": "author-and-time", "title": "Who made the prediction and when we captured it", "intro": "The tipster is the person named in the material as making the pick, otherwise the byline or the channel owner. Where the byline and the named tipster differ, the pick is marked “Attribution under review” and kept out of personal totals until it is checked. Our own capture time is measured: picks we recorded before kick-off form the live record. Restored history was either backed by a web-archive copy taken before kick-off or found after the match with the date the source states; the parts are never added together.", "definitions": [ "attribution", "origin" ], "rules": [ "restored-history", "late-found-picks", "evidence-storage" ] }, { "anchor": "outcome", "title": "How the outcome is checked", "intro": "A pick is settled from the regulation-time result under the published rule for its market. Results come from two commercial data providers; where both cover a match and disagree, the pick waits. A prediction on a national-team match outside the match calendar stays in the record, unsettled.", "definitions": [ "settlement", "settled-pick", "match" ], "rules": [ "settlement-rule", "markets", "result-sources", "outside-coverage" ] }, { "anchor": "prices", "title": "Which price is used", "intro": "The headline return of the live record uses our own market price of the same selection: the median of bookmakers’ prices in our price feed at the moment we first recorded the pick, always before kick-off (from method version 2.2, 11 October 2026; the delay of that price after our record is under a minute at the median: the price is taken when we record the pick). The author’s stated price and the closing price are separate lines on the same picks. Restored history is priced at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at a closing price, because the market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed. A stated price more than twice or less than half the market price of the same selection is marked “price disputed” and left out of returns at the author’s price until it is checked.", "definitions": [ "author-price", "odds-snapshot", "clv", "overlap" ], "rules": [ "disputed-prices" ] }, { "anchor": "calculation", "title": "How results are calculated", "intro": "Every qualifying pick is a level stake of 100 points. The return on stakes is the net result divided by the total staked, separately for each price series, with a 95% interval from a bootstrap over matches.", "definitions": [ "qualifying-pick", "roi", "derived", "uncertainty", "top-up", "drawdown", "brier" ], "rules": [ "what-is-executed", "roi-rule", "interval", "bank" ] }, { "anchor": "not-compared", "title": "What stays separate", "intro": "In the tipster comparison, a position goes only to a live record with at least 30 settled picks, not counting voided ones, on at least 15 matches, from a tipster with an Established record; records without a position are listed by sample size, not by return. Levels within a market or competition (No.1, Top 3, Top 5, Top 10) and titles start at Tracked. The live record and restored history are never compared or added together, returns at different prices are never mixed, and a joint byline is not treated as one person’s record.", "definitions": [ "threshold" ], "rules": [ "rankings" ] }, { "anchor": "corrections", "title": "Corrections, versions and conflicts of interest", "intro": "Every number carries the version of the method that produced it; a new version recalculates the result and never creates a second bet. A correction changes a number in the open: the corrections log keeps the old and the new value with the date, and an author can reply. Links to bookmakers, where they appear, never change a number or the order of any table, and nothing in a comparison is for sale.", "definitions": [ "method-version" ], "rules": [ "reproducibility", "reply-window" ] } ], "questions": [ { "question": "What was predicted?", "answer": "A pick on one match, market and selection, read from the author’s own words; the quote stays on the pick’s page.", "anchor": "sources" }, { "question": "Who made the prediction?", "answer": "The tipster named in the material, otherwise the byline or channel owner. A disputed attribution is kept out of personal totals until it is checked.", "anchor": "author-and-time" }, { "question": "When was it captured?", "answer": "Our own capture time is measured. Only picks we recorded before kick-off form the live record; restored history is labelled by its evidence and kept apart.", "anchor": "author-and-time" }, { "question": "Which price was used?", "answer": "For the live record, the median of bookmakers’ prices in our price feed at the moment we first recorded the pick, always before kick-off (delay after our record: under a minute at the median: the price is taken when we record the pick). The author’s price and the closing price are separate lines; restored history uses the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).", "anchor": "prices" }, { "question": "What could change this result?", "answer": "A restated match result, a corrected reading or attribution, a disputed price checked by hand or a new method version. Every change is logged with the old and the new value.", "anchor": "corrections" } ], "caveat": "A calculated return measures the published picks under stated rules: a level stake of 100 points on every qualifying pick, at one named price series.", "statuses": [ { "anchor": "measured", "status": "Measured", "definition": "Directly observed in a source or timestamped capture.", "example": "The time of our own capture; a final score from the result feed." }, { "anchor": "stated", "status": "Stated", "definition": "Reported by the source; not independently confirmed.", "example": "A publication date written on the page; the price an author quotes." }, { "anchor": "calculated", "status": "Calculated", "definition": "Derived from the listed inputs under a published rule.", "example": "A return on stakes; a median difference between two prices." }, { "anchor": "unknown", "status": "Unknown", "definition": "Not established from the evidence available.", "example": "CLV where no closing price of the same selection exists. Unknown is never written as zero." } ], "example": { "url": "/sources/iddaatahmin11-com/picks/77/#pick-n-533e8c57435081641ffc41b1", "author_url": "/sources/iddaatahmin11-com/", "author": "İddaaTahmin", "title": "Pendikspor v Istanbulspor — Pendikspor (1X2, match result)", "rows": [ { "question": "What was predicted?", "answer": "Pendikspor (1X2, match result), in Pendikspor v Istanbulspor, Türkiye 1 Lig, kick-off 16:00 UTC on 7 November 2026. The author’s words: “Pendikspor - İstanbulspor\n\n1\n\n1.72” (Stated)." }, { "question": "Who made the prediction?", "answer": "İddaaTahmin. The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner." }, { "question": "When was it captured?", "answer": "The page gives its publication time as 15:40 UTC on 7 November 2026 (Stated). We captured it at 15:41 UTC on 7 November 2026 (Measured), less than an hour before kick-off, so it belongs to the live record." }, { "question": "Which price was used?", "answer": "Our price feed gave the same selection a median bookmakers’ price of 1.83 (Measured), from a quote taken at 15:41 UTC on 7 November 2026, within a minute of our capture; the headline return of the live record uses it. The author stated 1.72 (Stated); that price is a separate line on the same pick." }, { "question": "What could change this result?", "answer": "Lost: the final score was Pendikspor 0-2 Istanbulspor (Measured, regulation time). At 100 points per pick the snapshot series records −100 points (Calculated). This changes only if the result provider restates the score, the reading of the pick or its attribution is corrected, or the method version changes. Each such change is logged with the old and the new value." } ], "note": null }, "facts": { "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "-0.0", "snapshot_delay_picks": 13883, "market_snapshots_from": "2026-09-25", "price_feed_from": "2026-09-26T17:59:04Z", "restored_matches_from": "2024-08-01", "restored_matches_to": "2026-10-11" }, "toc": [ { "anchor": "what-the-numbers-measure", "title": "What do these numbers measure?" }, { "anchor": "sources", "title": "Where the predictions come from" }, { "anchor": "author-and-time", "title": "Who made the prediction and when we captured it" }, { "anchor": "outcome", "title": "How the outcome is checked" }, { "anchor": "prices", "title": "Which price is used" }, { "anchor": "calculation", "title": "How results are calculated" }, { "anchor": "not-compared", "title": "What stays separate" }, { "anchor": "corrections", "title": "Corrections, versions and conflicts of interest" }, { "anchor": "technical", "title": "Technical details and examples" } ], "research": [ { "title": "Which collected football predictions can be checked against a result", "url": "/research/verifiable-football-predictions/", "text": "only some collected predictions can be checked against a match result; this page counts only those" } ] }, "entity_id": "methodology:/methodology/", "source_revision": 181 }