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 "heading": "Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig: recorded predictions and results",
 "description": "Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig, 21 October 2026. Final score 4-1 · UEFA Champions League: 88 distinct predictions from 44 authors.",
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  "body": "Real Madrid finished 4-1 against RB Leipzig. 1 of the 6 recorded correct-score predictions matched that score. Other markets are shown separately below. Forecast Record recorded 89 statements from 44 authors on Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig (UEFA Champions League, kick-off 21 October 2026): 88 distinct predictions, all of the statements recorded before kick-off.",
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  "data": "2026-10-21",
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   {
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   {
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   {
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   },
   {
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     null
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   {
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    "selections": [
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     "Kylian Mbappé Lottin to score"
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   {
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     null
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   {
    "author": "WinDrawWin",
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   {
    "author": "Wincomparator",
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   {
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   "median_hours": 38.4,
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 },
 "title_tag": "Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig: Predictions and Results — 21 Oct 2026",
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    "entity_ref": "e-c73e2d690083b73e2063c241",
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    "moment_at": "2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z",
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    "entity_ref": "e-d18c9ab7f542a7603c1d6274",
    "name_shown": "Baba",
    "url": "/authors/baba/"
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   {
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    "type_code": "author_before_match",
    "moment_at": "2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z",
    "freeze_at": "2026-10-21T21:43:58.834Z",
    "approach": "by_capture_time",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
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     {
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      "choices": [
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      ],
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     },
     {
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    ],
    "author_count": 41,
    "below_threshold": {
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     "author_count": 3
    },
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   },
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    "admissible": 16,
    "contributions": 16
   },
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   "visible_who": 6,
   "newcomers_who": 38,
   "newcomers_before": 72,
   "titles_shown": true,
   "legend": "Badges show titles earned before this prediction, by published rules."
  },
  "arguments": {
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     "checkable_item": false,
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      },
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    },
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    },
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   "snapshot_at": "2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z",
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   "phrase": "The market has barely changed its mind since our first snapshot on 21 October 2026: Real Madrid 78% then, 78% at kick-off.",
   "technique": "Median across groups of bookmakers, without margin: brands on one platform count once (median within the group); betting exchanges and prediction markets are excluded. Market price from an odds aggregator; the data provider is not named.",
   "t2": {
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  "fact_sheet": {
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   "matchday": "League Stage · Matchday 3",
   "starts_at": "2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z",
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     },
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     },
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    ],
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      "at_home": false,
      "data": "2026-10-17"
     },
     {
      "res": "W",
      "scoreline": "1-0",
      "opponent": "PSV Eindhoven",
      "at_home": true,
      "data": "2026-10-13"
     },
     {
      "res": "W",
      "scoreline": "6-0",
      "opponent": "Eintracht Frankfurt",
      "at_home": true,
      "data": "2026-10-10"
     },
     {
      "res": "L",
      "scoreline": "0-2",
      "opponent": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen",
      "at_home": false,
      "data": "2026-09-20"
     },
     {
      "res": "W",
      "scoreline": "5-0",
      "opponent": "Hamburger SV",
      "at_home": true,
      "data": "2026-09-13"
     }
    ]
   },
   "head_to_head": [],
   "past_cards": [],
   "reach": ""
  },
  "after_match": {
   "scoreline": "4-1",
   "fact_code": "1",
   "row_list": [
    "Match-result predictions from tipsters and sources with 10 or more predictions checked against the final score to date: 20 of 20 matched · Tipsters 12 of 12 · Prediction sites 8 of 8",
    "All recorded exact-score predictions: 1 of 6 matched",
    "Exact-score predictions from tipsters and sources with 10 or more predictions checked against the final score to date: 1 of 6 matched the score, 6 of 6 the outcome",
    "Predictions from tipsters and sources with fewer than 10 predictions checked against the final score to date, recorded before kick-off: 3 predictions · 3 won",
    "Most common selection among tipsters and sources with 10 or more predictions checked against the final score to date: Real Madrid (20 of 20), matched",
    "Market favourite at kick-off: Real Madrid (matched)"
   ],
   "by_group": {
    "tipsters": {
     "correct": 12,
     "of": 12
    },
    "websites": {
     "correct": 8,
     "of": 8
    }
   },
   "placement": null,
   "checks": []
  },
  "prices": [
   {
    "author_name": "Miguel Alvim",
    "choice": "Real Madrid",
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "author_quoted_price": "1.54",
    "our_snapshot": "1.2222",
    "closing_line": null
   },
   {
    "author_name": "Kelechi Udoka",
    "choice": "yes",
    "market_label": "Both teams to score",
    "author_quoted_price": "1.55",
    "our_snapshot": "1.5000",
    "closing_line": null
   },
   {
    "author_name": "Kelechi Udoka",
    "choice": "over 4.5",
    "market_label": "Over/Under 4.5 goals",
    "author_quoted_price": "2.25",
    "our_snapshot": "2.2500",
    "closing_line": null
   },
   {
    "author_name": "Tobias Brandt",
    "choice": "over 4.5",
    "market_label": "Over/Under 4.5 goals",
    "author_quoted_price": "2.45",
    "our_snapshot": "2.3200",
    "closing_line": null
   },
   {
    "author_name": "Miguel Alvim",
    "choice": "Real Madrid over 2.5",
    "market_label": "Team goals over/under 2.5",
    "author_quoted_price": "1.59",
    "our_snapshot": "1.4367",
    "closing_line": null
   },
   {
    "author_name": "Kelechi Udoka",
    "choice": "Real Madrid over 3.5",
    "market_label": "Team goals over/under 3.5",
    "author_quoted_price": "2.50",
    "our_snapshot": "2.3700",
    "closing_line": null
   }
  ],
  "revisions": [
   "Market 2 hours before kick-off: Real Madrid 78%.",
   "First published with predictions on 19 October 2026."
  ],
  "titles": {
   "shown": true,
   "legend": "Badges show titles earned before this prediction, by published rules.",
   "frozen_in": "sr-0dce55f203c30d37488fb542"
  },
  "tracker": null,
  "source_groups": {
   "as_of": "2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z",
   "groups": [
    {
     "key": "prediction_sites",
     "label": "Prediction sites"
    },
    {
     "key": "media",
     "label": "Media"
    },
    {
     "key": "telegram_channels",
     "label": "Telegram channels"
    },
    {
     "key": "private_authors",
     "label": "Independent tipsters"
    }
   ],
   "authors": 44,
   "by_group": [
    {
     "key": "prediction_sites",
     "authors": 17
    },
    {
     "key": "media",
     "authors": 9
    },
    {
     "key": "telegram_channels",
     "authors": 17
    },
    {
     "key": "private_authors",
     "authors": 1
    }
   ],
   "markets": [
    {
     "key": "1x2",
     "label": "Match result",
     "authors": 20,
     "by_group": [
      {
       "key": "prediction_sites",
       "authors": 10
      },
      {
       "key": "media",
       "authors": 3
      },
      {
       "key": "telegram_channels",
       "authors": 7
      },
      {
       "key": "private_authors",
       "authors": 0
      }
     ],
     "choices": [
      {
       "code_name": "1",
       "in_words": "Real Madrid",
       "authors": 20,
       "by_group": [
        {
         "key": "prediction_sites",
         "authors": 10
        },
        {
         "key": "media",
         "authors": 3
        },
        {
         "key": "telegram_channels",
         "authors": 7
        },
        {
         "key": "private_authors",
         "authors": 0
        }
       ]
      },
      {
       "code_name": "X",
       "in_words": "Draw",
       "authors": 0,
       "by_group": [
        {
         "key": "prediction_sites",
         "authors": 0
        },
        {
         "key": "media",
         "authors": 0
        },
        {
         "key": "telegram_channels",
         "authors": 0
        },
        {
         "key": "private_authors",
         "authors": 0
        }
       ]
      },
      {
       "code_name": "2",
       "in_words": "RB Leipzig",
       "authors": 0,
       "by_group": [
        {
         "key": "prediction_sites",
         "authors": 0
        },
        {
         "key": "media",
         "authors": 0
        },
        {
         "key": "telegram_channels",
         "authors": 0
        },
        {
         "key": "private_authors",
         "authors": 0
        }
       ]
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "totals",
     "label": "Goal totals",
     "authors": 15,
     "by_group": [
      {
       "key": "prediction_sites",
       "authors": 7
      },
      {
       "key": "media",
       "authors": 2
      },
      {
       "key": "telegram_channels",
       "authors": 6
      },
      {
       "key": "private_authors",
       "authors": 0
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "other",
     "label": "Handicaps, both teams to score, correct score and other markets",
     "authors": 32,
     "by_group": [
      {
       "key": "prediction_sites",
       "authors": 11
      },
      {
       "key": "media",
       "authors": 8
      },
      {
       "key": "telegram_channels",
       "authors": 12
      },
      {
       "key": "private_authors",
       "authors": 1
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  "market_line": {
   "line_state": "not_moved",
   "line_frozen": true,
   "phrase": "Market line at kick-off (21 October 2026, 20:00 BST): Real Madrid 78%, draw 13%, RB Leipzig 10%. No change from 21 October 2026, 04:07 BST to kick-off.",
   "line_markets": [
    {
     "market_text": "1X2, match result",
     "market_group": "1x2",
     "line_kind": "median_line",
     "margin_included": false,
     "snapshot_at": "2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z",
     "closing_line": true,
     "probabilities": [
      {
       "outcome_label": "1",
       "in_words": "Real Madrid",
       "percent_value": 78
      },
      {
       "outcome_label": "X",
       "in_words": "Draw",
       "percent_value": 13
      },
      {
       "outcome_label": "2",
       "in_words": "RB Leipzig",
       "percent_value": 10
      }
     ],
     "group_count": 29,
     "first_at": "2026-10-21T03:07:05.746Z",
     "first_probabilities": {
      "1": 78,
      "2": 10,
      "X": 13
     },
     "shift_pp": 0.4,
     "shift_outcome": "X",
     "shift_direction": "down",
     "line_state": "not_moved",
     "phrase": "Market line at kick-off (21 October 2026, 20:00 BST): Real Madrid 78%, draw 13%, RB Leipzig 10%. No change from 21 October 2026, 04:07 BST to kick-off."
    },
    {
     "market_text": "Both teams to score",
     "market_group": "other",
     "line_kind": "recorded_price",
     "margin_included": true,
     "closing_line": false,
     "price_sides": [
      {
       "choice": "yes",
       "snapshot_price": "1.45",
       "percent_value": 69,
       "snapshot_at": "2026-10-21T15:35:41.409Z",
       "snapshot_count": 17,
       "first_snapshot_price": "1.53",
       "first_at": "2026-10-17T09:07:22.890Z",
       "shift_pp": 3.3,
       "shift_direction": "up",
       "line_state": "moved"
      }
     ],
     "line_state": "moved",
     "phrase": "Both teams to score, yes: market price 1.45 on 21 October 2026, 16:35 BST (implied 69%, margin included), 3.3 percentage points up from 17 October 2026, 10:07 BST."
    },
    {
     "market_text": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
     "market_group": "totals",
     "line_kind": "recorded_price",
     "margin_included": true,
     "closing_line": false,
     "price_sides": [
      {
       "choice": "over 2.5",
       "snapshot_price": "1.20",
       "percent_value": 83,
       "snapshot_at": "2026-10-20T23:05:36.000Z",
       "snapshot_count": 3,
       "first_snapshot_price": "1.20",
       "first_at": "2026-10-20T19:30:36.000Z",
       "shift_pp": 0.0,
       "shift_direction": null,
       "line_state": "not_moved"
      }
     ],
     "line_state": "not_moved",
     "phrase": "Over/Under 2.5 goals, over 2.5 goals: market price 1.20 on 21 October 2026, 00:05 BST (implied 83%, margin included), the same as on 20 October 2026, 20:30 BST."
    },
    {
     "market_text": "Over/Under 4.5 goals",
     "market_group": "totals",
     "line_kind": "recorded_price",
     "margin_included": true,
     "closing_line": false,
     "price_sides": [
      {
       "choice": "over 4.5",
       "snapshot_price": "2.25",
       "percent_value": 45,
       "snapshot_at": "2026-10-21T01:29:12.761Z",
       "snapshot_count": 3,
       "first_snapshot_price": "2.32",
       "first_at": "2026-10-19T04:55:36.000Z",
       "shift_pp": 1.4,
       "shift_direction": "up",
       "line_state": "barely_moved"
      }
     ],
     "line_state": "barely_moved",
     "phrase": "Over/Under 4.5 goals, over 4.5 goals: market price 2.25 on 21 October 2026, 02:29 BST (implied 45%, margin included), 1.4 percentage points up from 19 October 2026, 05:55 BST."
    },
    {
     "market_text": "Team goals over/under 2.5",
     "market_group": "totals",
     "line_kind": "recorded_price",
     "margin_included": true,
     "closing_line": false,
     "price_sides": [
      {
       "choice": "Real Madrid over 2.5",
       "snapshot_price": "1.44",
       "percent_value": 70,
       "snapshot_at": "2026-10-21T16:05:59.275Z",
       "snapshot_count": 1,
       "first_snapshot_price": null,
       "first_at": null,
       "shift_pp": null,
       "shift_direction": null,
       "line_state": "single_snapshot"
      }
     ],
     "line_state": "single_snapshot",
     "phrase": "Team goals over/under 2.5, Real Madrid over 2.5 goals: market price 1.44 on 21 October 2026, 17:05 BST (implied 70%, margin included)."
    },
    {
     "market_text": "Team goals over/under 3.5",
     "market_group": "totals",
     "line_kind": "recorded_price",
     "margin_included": true,
     "closing_line": false,
     "price_sides": [
      {
       "choice": "Real Madrid over 3.5",
       "snapshot_price": "2.25",
       "percent_value": 44,
       "snapshot_at": "2026-10-20T21:41:28.873Z",
       "snapshot_count": 3,
       "first_snapshot_price": "2.37",
       "first_at": "2026-10-19T19:05:42.228Z",
       "shift_pp": 2.3,
       "shift_direction": "up",
       "line_state": "barely_moved"
      }
     ],
     "line_state": "barely_moved",
     "phrase": "Team goals over/under 3.5, Real Madrid over 3.5 goals: market price 2.25 on 20 October 2026, 22:41 BST (implied 44%, margin included), 2.3 percentage points up from 19 October 2026, 20:05 BST."
    }
   ]
  },
  "pre_kickoff_snapshot": {
   "frozen_before_kickoff": true,
   "as_of_moment": "2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z",
   "starts_at": "2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z",
   "phrase": "Before kick-off on 21 October 2026, 20:00 BST: market line at kick-off Real Madrid 78%, draw 13%, RB Leipzig 10%; 1X2, match result: most expected Real Madrid (20 of 20 predictions); Over/Under 4.5 goals: most expected over 4.5 goals (5 of 7 predictions); Both teams to score: most expected goals at both ends (18 of 19 predictions).",
   "market_line_brief": {
    "snapshot_at": "2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z",
    "closing_line": true,
    "probabilities": {
     "1": 78,
     "X": 13,
     "2": 10
    }
   },
   "market_groups": [
    {
     "market_group": "1x2",
     "group_markets": [
      {
       "market_text": "1X2, match result",
       "prediction_count": 20,
       "row_count": 20,
       "market_choices": [
        {
         "choice": "Real Madrid",
         "figure": 20
        }
       ],
       "phrase_mode": "majority",
       "leader_choice": "Real Madrid",
       "leader_count": 20,
       "share_percent": 100,
       "phrase": "1X2, match result: most expected Real Madrid (20 of 20 predictions)",
       "sides_1x2": [
        {
         "side": "1",
         "in_words": "Real Madrid",
         "figure": 20
        },
        {
         "side": "X",
         "in_words": "draw",
         "figure": 0
        },
        {
         "side": "2",
         "in_words": "RB Leipzig",
         "figure": 0
        }
       ]
      },
      {
       "market_text": "1X2, match result, first half",
       "prediction_count": 1,
       "row_count": 1,
       "market_choices": [
        {
         "choice": "Real Madrid",
         "figure": 1
        }
       ],
       "phrase_mode": "listing",
       "leader_choice": null,
       "leader_count": null,
       "share_percent": 100,
       "phrase": "1X2, match result, first half, recorded picks before the match (1): 1 on Real Madrid",
       "sides_1x2": [
        {
         "side": "1",
         "in_words": "Real Madrid",
         "figure": 1
        },
        {
         "side": "X",
         "in_words": "draw",
         "figure": 0
        },
        {
         "side": "2",
         "in_words": "RB Leipzig",
         "figure": 0
        }
       ]
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "market_group": "totals",
     "group_markets": [
      {
       "market_text": "Over/Under 4.5 goals",
       "prediction_count": 7,
       "row_count": 7,
       "market_choices": [
        {
         "choice": "over 4.5",
         "figure": 5
        },
        {
         "choice": "under 4.5",
         "figure": 2
        }
       ],
       "phrase_mode": "majority",
       "leader_choice": "over 4.5",
       "leader_count": 5,
       "share_percent": 71,
       "phrase": "Over/Under 4.5 goals: most expected over 4.5 goals (5 of 7 predictions)"
      },
      {
       "market_text": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
       "prediction_count": 5,
       "row_count": 5,
       "market_choices": [
        {
         "choice": "over 2.5",
         "figure": 5
        }
       ],
       "phrase_mode": "majority",
       "leader_choice": "over 2.5",
       "leader_count": 5,
       "share_percent": 100,
       "phrase": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: most expected over 2.5 goals (5 of 5 predictions)"
      },
      {
       "market_text": "Over/Under 3.5 goals",
       "prediction_count": 4,
       "row_count": 4,
       "market_choices": [
        {
         "choice": "over 3.5",
         "figure": 4
        }
       ],
       "phrase_mode": "listing",
       "leader_choice": null,
       "leader_count": null,
       "share_percent": 100,
       "phrase": "Over/Under 3.5 goals, recorded picks before the match (4): 4 on over 3.5 goals"
      },
      {
       "market_text": "Team goals over/under 3.5",
       "prediction_count": 3,
       "row_count": 3,
       "market_choices": [
        {
         "choice": "Real Madrid over 3.5",
         "figure": 3
        }
       ],
       "phrase_mode": "listing",
       "leader_choice": null,
       "leader_count": null,
       "share_percent": 100,
       "phrase": "Team goals over/under 3.5, recorded picks before the match (3): 3 on Real Madrid over 3.5 goals"
      },
      {
       "market_text": "Over/Under 1.5 goals",
       "prediction_count": 1,
       "row_count": 1,
       "market_choices": [
        {
         "choice": "over 1.5",
         "figure": 1
        }
       ],
       "phrase_mode": "listing",
       "leader_choice": null,
       "leader_count": null,
       "share_percent": 100,
       "phrase": "Over/Under 1.5 goals, recorded picks before the match (1): 1 on over 1.5 goals"
      },
      {
       "market_text": "Over/Under 10.5 corners",
       "prediction_count": 1,
       "row_count": 1,
       "market_choices": [
        {
         "choice": "over 10.5",
         "figure": 1
        }
       ],
       "phrase_mode": "listing",
       "leader_choice": null,
       "leader_count": null,
       "share_percent": 100,
       "phrase": "Over/Under 10.5 corners, recorded picks before the match (1): 1 on over 10.5 corners"
      },
      {
       "market_text": "Team goals over/under 2.5",
       "prediction_count": 1,
       "row_count": 1,
       "market_choices": [
        {
         "choice": "Real Madrid over 2.5",
         "figure": 1
        }
       ],
       "phrase_mode": "listing",
       "leader_choice": null,
       "leader_count": null,
       "share_percent": 100,
       "phrase": "Team goals over/under 2.5, recorded picks before the match (1): 1 on Real Madrid over 2.5 goals"
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "market_group": "other",
     "group_markets": [
      {
       "market_text": "Both teams to score",
       "prediction_count": 19,
       "row_count": 19,
       "market_choices": [
        {
         "choice": "yes",
         "figure": 18
        },
        {
         "choice": "no",
         "figure": 1
        }
       ],
       "phrase_mode": "majority",
       "leader_choice": "yes",
       "leader_count": 18,
       "share_percent": 95,
       "phrase": "Both teams to score: most expected goals at both ends (18 of 19 predictions)"
      },
      {
       "market_text": "Correct score",
       "prediction_count": 6,
       "row_count": 6,
       "market_choices": [
        {
         "choice": "Real Madrid 3-1 RB Leipzig",
         "figure": 5
        },
        {
         "choice": "Real Madrid 4-1 RB Leipzig",
         "figure": 1
        }
       ],
       "phrase_mode": "majority",
       "leader_choice": "Real Madrid 3-1 RB Leipzig",
       "leader_count": 5,
       "share_percent": 83,
       "phrase": "Correct score: most expected Real Madrid 3-1 RB Leipzig (5 of 6 predictions)"
      },
      {
       "market_text": "Double chance",
       "prediction_count": 4,
       "row_count": 4,
       "market_choices": [
        {
         "choice": "Real Madrid or RB Leipzig",
         "figure": 3
        },
        {
         "choice": "Real Madrid or draw",
         "figure": 1
        }
       ],
       "phrase_mode": "listing",
       "leader_choice": null,
       "leader_count": null,
       "share_percent": 75,
       "phrase": "Double chance, recorded picks before the match (4): 3 on Real Madrid or RB Leipzig, 1 on Real Madrid or draw"
      },
      {
       "market_text": "Match result and both teams to score",
       "prediction_count": 4,
       "row_count": 4,
       "market_choices": [
        {
         "choice": "Real Madrid win, both teams to score: yes",
         "figure": 4
        }
       ],
       "phrase_mode": "listing",
       "leader_choice": null,
       "leader_count": null,
       "share_percent": 100,
       "phrase": "Match result and both teams to score, recorded picks before the match (4): 4 on Real Madrid win, both teams to score: yes"
      },
      {
       "market_text": "Asian handicap -1.5",
       "prediction_count": 3,
       "row_count": 3,
       "market_choices": [
        {
         "choice": "Real Madrid -1.5",
         "figure": 3
        }
       ],
       "phrase_mode": "listing",
       "leader_choice": null,
       "leader_count": null,
       "share_percent": 100,
       "phrase": "Asian handicap -1.5, recorded picks before the match (3): 3 on Real Madrid -1.5"
      },
      {
       "market_text": "Asian handicap -1.75",
       "prediction_count": 2,
       "row_count": 2,
       "market_choices": [
        {
         "choice": "Real Madrid -1.75",
         "figure": 2
        }
       ],
       "phrase_mode": "listing",
       "leader_choice": null,
       "leader_count": null,
       "share_percent": 100,
       "phrase": "Asian handicap -1.75, recorded picks before the match (2): 2 on Real Madrid -1.75"
      },
      {
       "market_text": "Asian handicap -2",
       "prediction_count": 1,
       "row_count": 1,
       "market_choices": [
        {
         "choice": "Real Madrid -2",
         "figure": 1
        }
       ],
       "phrase_mode": "listing",
       "leader_choice": null,
       "leader_count": null,
       "share_percent": 100,
       "phrase": "Asian handicap -2, recorded picks before the match (1): 1 on Real Madrid -2"
      },
      {
       "market_text": "Draw no bet",
       "prediction_count": 1,
       "row_count": 1,
       "market_choices": [
        {
         "choice": "Real Madrid",
         "figure": 1
        }
       ],
       "phrase_mode": "listing",
       "leader_choice": null,
       "leader_count": null,
       "share_percent": 100,
       "phrase": "Draw no bet, recorded picks before the match (1): 1 on Real Madrid"
      },
      {
       "market_text": "European handicap -1",
       "prediction_count": 1,
       "row_count": 1,
       "market_choices": [
        {
         "choice": "Real Madrid -1",
         "figure": 1
        }
       ],
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