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 "heading": "New York City FC vs CF Montréal: recorded predictions and results",
 "description": "New York City FC vs CF Montréal, 31 October 2026. Final score 1-1 · MLS: 1 distinct prediction from 1 author.",
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  "body": "New York City FC finished 1-1 against CF Montréal. The recorded prediction is listed below with its outcome. Forecast Record recorded 1 statement from 1 author on New York City FC vs CF Montréal (MLS, kick-off 31 October 2026): 1 distinct prediction, recorded before kick-off.",
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    "too_few": true,
    "header_titles": [
     {
      "title_id": "zk-1f2dc73852fb72ab0133",
      "code_name": "P-09",
      "title_tier": "dated_record",
      "badge_label": "Bundesliga · 2/3 · 26 Oct",
      "body": "Bundesliga, week of 26 Oct 2026: 2/3 result calls right, first of 22 tipsters and sources with 3+ calls",
      "provenance": "live",
      "anchor_id": "title-1f2dc73852fb",
      "url": null,
      "tier": null,
      "event_at": "2026-11-01"
     },
     {
      "title_id": "zk-ca7508509979566f1f5d",
      "code_name": "S-01",
      "title_tier": "dated_record",
      "badge_label": "8 right in a row · 12 Oct",
      "body": "8 matches in a row, every pick correct · 11 Oct–12 Oct 2026",
      "provenance": "live",
      "anchor_id": "title-ca7508509979",
      "url": null,
      "tier": null,
      "event_at": "2026-10-12"
     }
    ]
   },
   {
    "name_shown": "Miguel Alvim",
    "url": "/authors/miguel-alvim/",
    "source_group": "tipsters",
    "settled_count": 1,
    "match_count": 1,
    "portion": "live",
    "portion_words": "Recorded before kick-off · return at our recorded market price",
    "return_percent": null,
    "too_few": true,
    "header_titles": [
     {
      "title_id": "zk-1d5292ed85a71802d687",
      "code_name": "P-01",
      "title_tier": "dated_record",
      "badge_label": "6/7 · week of 19 Oct",
      "body": "6/7 result calls right · week of 19 Oct 2026",
      "provenance": "live",
      "anchor_id": "title-1d5292ed85a7",
      "url": null,
      "tier": null,
      "event_at": "2026-10-25"
     }
    ]
   }
  ],
  "competition_authors_total": 9,
  "competition_authors_10": 4,
  "full": false,
  "facts_only": false,
  "checked_count": null,
  "window": {
   "d_minus_14_at": "2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z",
   "d_minus_3_at": "2026-10-28T18:00:00.000Z"
  },
  "first_screen": {
   "body": "Before kick-off, 1 tipster with 10 or more predictions checked against the final score to date had predictions on this match: 1 other markets only.",
   "byline": "Split of recorded tipsters and sources.",
   "outcome_split": {
    "1": 0,
    "X": 0,
    "2": 0
   },
   "forecasters_outcome": 0,
   "from_score": {},
   "forecasters_from_score": 0,
   "other_markets_only": 1,
   "newcomers": null,
   "market_label": "Market favourite at kick-off: New York City FC · implied 66%",
   "market_at": "2026-10-31T18:00:00.000Z",
   "predictions_at": "2026-10-31T01:00:32.405Z",
   "comparison": null
  },
  "who_what": {
   "contracts": [],
   "newcomers": [
    {
     "entry_id": "n-c9a289691eb4031ec6a0cc48",
     "author_name": "Javier Ortega",
     "author_href": "/authors/javier-ortega/",
     "source_group": "tipsters",
     "trust_tier": "probation",
     "market_label": "Both teams to score",
     "market_key": "both_teams_score",
     "choice": "yes",
     "choice_key": "yes",
     "byline": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
     "logged_at": "2026-10-31T01:00:32.405Z",
     "posted_at": "2026-10-29T00:22:11.000Z",
     "author_quoted_price": "1.80",
     "our_snapshot": "1.7143",
     "closing_line": null,
     "outcome_label": "Won",
     "pre_match": true,
     "proof": "/authors/javier-ortega/picks/90/#pick-n-c9a289691eb4031ec6a0cc48",
     "original": null,
     "contradictory": false,
     "authorship": null,
     "source_type": "media",
     "own_page": true,
     "trust_settled_count": 1057
    }
   ],
   "not_counted": [],
   "after_start": [],
   "forecaster_split": {
    "contracts": [
     {
      "contract_code": "both_teams_score|*|match|*|*#explicit",
      "source_group": "explicit",
      "market_label": "Both teams to score",
      "market_key": "both_teams_score",
      "choices": [
       {
        "code_name": "yes",
        "in_words": "yes",
        "tips": [
         {
          "author_name": "Javier Ortega",
          "entry_id": "n-c9a289691eb4031ec6a0cc48",
          "outcome_label": "Won",
          "source_group": "tipsters"
         }
        ],
        "figure": 1
       }
      ],
      "n": 1,
      "publisher_count": 1
     }
    ],
    "author_count": 1,
    "below_threshold": {
     "prediction_count": 0,
     "author_count": 0
    },
    "limit": 10
   },
   "chain": null,
   "differing_choices": 0,
   "visible_who": 0,
   "newcomers_who": 1,
   "newcomers_before": 1,
   "titles_shown": true,
   "legend": "Badges show titles earned before this prediction, by published rules."
  },
  "arguments": {
   "topics": [],
   "against": [],
   "other_languages": 0,
   "other_language_hosts": [],
   "mode": "quotes",
   "topics_total": 0,
   "checkable": 0
  },
  "market_label": {
   "favourite_code": "1",
   "favourite": "New York City FC",
   "probabilities": [
    {
     "outcome_label": "1",
     "in_words": "New York City FC",
     "percent_value": 66
    },
    {
     "outcome_label": "X",
     "in_words": "Draw",
     "percent_value": 20
    },
    {
     "outcome_label": "2",
     "in_words": "CF Montréal",
     "percent_value": 14
    }
   ],
   "prices": {
    "1": "1.42",
    "X": "4.75",
    "2": "6.50"
   },
   "group_count": 28,
   "bookmakers": 45,
   "snapshot_at": "2026-10-31T18:00:00.000Z",
   "closing_line": true,
   "first_at": "2026-10-30T18:00:00.000Z",
   "shift_pp": 0.6,
   "phrase": "The market has barely changed its mind since our first snapshot on 30 October 2026: New York City FC 67% then, 66% at kick-off.",
   "technique": "Median across groups of bookmakers, without margin: brands on one platform count once (median within the group); betting exchanges and prediction markets are excluded. Market price from an odds aggregator; the data provider is not named.",
   "t24": {
    "snapshot_at": "2026-10-30T18:00:00.000Z",
    "probabilities": {
     "1": 67,
     "2": 14,
     "X": 20
    }
   },
   "t2": {
    "snapshot_at": "2026-10-31T16:00:00.000Z",
    "probabilities": {
     "1": 66,
     "2": 14,
     "X": 20
    }
   }
  },
  "market_mode": "show",
  "fact_sheet": {
   "tournament": "MLS (United States)",
   "matchday": null,
   "starts_at": "2026-10-31T18:00:00.000Z",
   "form": {
    "home_side": [
     {
      "res": "W",
      "scoreline": "2-1",
      "opponent": "Atlanta United",
      "at_home": true,
      "data": "2026-10-28"
     },
     {
      "res": "D",
      "scoreline": "2-2",
      "opponent": "Orlando City SC",
      "at_home": false,
      "data": "2026-10-25"
     },
     {
      "res": "D",
      "scoreline": "1-1",
      "opponent": "Los Angeles FC",
      "at_home": true,
      "data": "2026-10-18"
     },
     {
      "res": "L",
      "scoreline": "0-2",
      "opponent": "Inter Miami CF",
      "at_home": false,
      "data": "2026-10-15"
     },
     {
      "res": "L",
      "scoreline": "1-2",
      "opponent": "Chicago Fire",
      "at_home": false,
      "data": "2026-10-10"
     }
    ],
    "away": []
   },
   "head_to_head": [],
   "past_cards": [],
   "reach": ""
  },
  "after_match": {
   "scoreline": "1-1",
   "fact_code": "X",
   "row_list": [
    "Market favourite at kick-off: New York City FC (missed)"
   ],
   "by_group": {},
   "placement": null,
   "checks": []
  },
  "prices": [],
  "revisions": [
   "Market 24 hours before kick-off: New York City FC 67%.",
   "Market 2 hours before kick-off: New York City FC 66%."
  ],
  "titles": {
   "shown": true,
   "legend": "Badges show titles earned before this prediction, by published rules.",
   "frozen_in": "sr-06cc8f046ed2fb0d2a1944cb"
  },
  "tracker": null,
  "source_groups": {
   "as_of": "2026-10-31T18:00:00.000Z",
   "groups": [
    {
     "key": "prediction_sites",
     "label": "Prediction sites"
    },
    {
     "key": "media",
     "label": "Media"
    },
    {
     "key": "telegram_channels",
     "label": "Telegram channels"
    },
    {
     "key": "private_authors",
     "label": "Independent tipsters"
    }
   ],
   "authors": 1,
   "by_group": [
    {
     "key": "prediction_sites",
     "authors": 0
    },
    {
     "key": "media",
     "authors": 1
    },
    {
     "key": "telegram_channels",
     "authors": 0
    },
    {
     "key": "private_authors",
     "authors": 0
    }
   ],
   "markets": [
    {
     "key": "1x2",
     "label": "Match result",
     "authors": 0,
     "by_group": [
      {
       "key": "prediction_sites",
       "authors": 0
      },
      {
       "key": "media",
       "authors": 0
      },
      {
       "key": "telegram_channels",
       "authors": 0
      },
      {
       "key": "private_authors",
       "authors": 0
      }
     ],
     "choices": [
      {
       "code_name": "1",
       "in_words": "New York City FC",
       "authors": 0,
       "by_group": [
        {
         "key": "prediction_sites",
         "authors": 0
        },
        {
         "key": "media",
         "authors": 0
        },
        {
         "key": "telegram_channels",
         "authors": 0
        },
        {
         "key": "private_authors",
         "authors": 0
        }
       ]
      },
      {
       "code_name": "X",
       "in_words": "Draw",
       "authors": 0,
       "by_group": [
        {
         "key": "prediction_sites",
         "authors": 0
        },
        {
         "key": "media",
         "authors": 0
        },
        {
         "key": "telegram_channels",
         "authors": 0
        },
        {
         "key": "private_authors",
         "authors": 0
        }
       ]
      },
      {
       "code_name": "2",
       "in_words": "CF Montréal",
       "authors": 0,
       "by_group": [
        {
         "key": "prediction_sites",
         "authors": 0
        },
        {
         "key": "media",
         "authors": 0
        },
        {
         "key": "telegram_channels",
         "authors": 0
        },
        {
         "key": "private_authors",
         "authors": 0
        }
       ]
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "totals",
     "label": "Goal totals",
     "authors": 0,
     "by_group": [
      {
       "key": "prediction_sites",
       "authors": 0
      },
      {
       "key": "media",
       "authors": 0
      },
      {
       "key": "telegram_channels",
       "authors": 0
      },
      {
       "key": "private_authors",
       "authors": 0
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "other",
     "label": "Handicaps, both teams to score, correct score and other markets",
     "authors": 1,
     "by_group": [
      {
       "key": "prediction_sites",
       "authors": 0
      },
      {
       "key": "media",
       "authors": 1
      },
      {
       "key": "telegram_channels",
       "authors": 0
      },
      {
       "key": "private_authors",
       "authors": 0
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  "market_line": {
   "line_state": "barely_moved",
   "line_frozen": true,
   "phrase": "Market line at kick-off (31 October 2026, 18:00 GMT): New York City FC 66%, draw 20%, CF Montréal 14%. From 30 October 2026, 18:00 GMT to kick-off it barely moved: the largest change was 0.6 percentage points (CF Montréal up).",
   "line_markets": [
    {
     "market_text": "1X2, match result",
     "market_group": "1x2",
     "line_kind": "median_line",
     "margin_included": false,
     "snapshot_at": "2026-10-31T18:00:00.000Z",
     "closing_line": true,
     "probabilities": [
      {
       "outcome_label": "1",
       "in_words": "New York City FC",
       "percent_value": 66
      },
      {
       "outcome_label": "X",
       "in_words": "Draw",
       "percent_value": 20
      },
      {
       "outcome_label": "2",
       "in_words": "CF Montréal",
       "percent_value": 14
      }
     ],
     "group_count": 28,
     "first_at": "2026-10-30T18:00:00.000Z",
     "first_probabilities": {
      "1": 67,
      "2": 14,
      "X": 20
     },
     "shift_pp": 0.6,
     "shift_outcome": "2",
     "shift_direction": "up",
     "line_state": "barely_moved",
     "phrase": "Market line at kick-off (31 October 2026, 18:00 GMT): New York City FC 66%, draw 20%, CF Montréal 14%. From 30 October 2026, 18:00 GMT to kick-off it barely moved: the largest change was 0.6 percentage points (CF Montréal up)."
    },
    {
     "market_text": "Both teams to score",
     "market_group": "other",
     "line_kind": "recorded_price",
     "margin_included": true,
     "closing_line": false,
     "price_sides": [
      {
       "choice": "yes",
       "snapshot_price": "1.71",
       "percent_value": 58,
       "snapshot_at": "2026-10-31T01:03:31.767Z",
       "snapshot_count": 1,
       "first_snapshot_price": null,
       "first_at": null,
       "shift_pp": null,
       "shift_direction": null,
       "line_state": "single_snapshot"
      }
     ],
     "line_state": "single_snapshot",
     "phrase": "Both teams to score, yes: market price 1.71 on 31 October 2026, 01:03 GMT (implied 58%, margin included)."
    }
   ]
  },
  "pre_kickoff_snapshot": {
   "frozen_before_kickoff": true,
   "as_of_moment": "2026-10-31T18:00:00.000Z",
   "starts_at": "2026-10-31T18:00:00.000Z",
   "phrase": "Before kick-off on 31 October 2026, 18:00 GMT: market line at kick-off New York City FC 66%, draw 20%, CF Montréal 14%; Both teams to score, recorded picks before the match (1): 1 on yes.",
   "market_line_brief": {
    "snapshot_at": "2026-10-31T18:00:00.000Z",
    "closing_line": true,
    "probabilities": {
     "1": 66,
     "X": 20,
     "2": 14
    }
   },
   "market_groups": [
    {
     "market_group": "other",
     "group_markets": [
      {
       "market_text": "Both teams to score",
       "prediction_count": 1,
       "row_count": 1,
       "market_choices": [
        {
         "choice": "yes",
         "figure": 1
        }
       ],
       "phrase_mode": "listing",
       "leader_choice": null,
       "leader_count": null,
       "share_percent": 100,
       "phrase": "Both teams to score, recorded picks before the match (1): 1 on yes"
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "predictions_before_kickoff": 1,
   "majority_threshold": {
    "min_predictions": 5,
    "min_share_percent": 60.0
   }
  },
  "teams_prev_next": [
   {
    "side": "home",
    "team": "New York City FC",
    "team_url": null,
    "participant_id": "u-4e53ae726c40",
    "previous": {
     "kickoff": "2026-10-28T23:30:00.000Z",
     "name": "New York City FC vs Atlanta United",
     "url": "/football/matches/new-york-city-fc-vs-atlanta-united-2026-10-28/",
     "competition": "MLS",
     "state": "played",
     "score": "2-1"
    },
    "next": {
     "kickoff": "2026-11-07T21:00:00.000Z",
     "name": "DC United vs New York City FC",
     "url": "/football/matches/dc-united-vs-new-york-city-fc-2026-11-07/",
     "competition": "MLS",
     "state": "upcoming",
     "score": null
    },
    "why": null
   },
   {
    "side": "away",
    "team": "CF Montréal",
    "team_url": null,
    "participant_id": "u-ae780235d3d1",
    "previous": {
     "kickoff": "2026-10-28T23:30:00.000Z",
     "name": "Charlotte FC vs CF Montréal",
     "url": "/football/matches/charlotte-fc-vs-cf-montreal-2026-10-28/",
     "competition": "MLS",
     "state": "played",
     "score": "4-0"
    },
    "next": {
     "kickoff": "2026-11-07T21:00:00.000Z",
     "name": "CF Montréal vs Vancouver Whitecaps",
     "url": "/football/matches/cf-montreal-vs-vancouver-whitecaps-2026-11-07/",
     "competition": "MLS",
     "state": "upcoming",
     "score": null
    },
    "why": null
   }
  ]
 },
 "number_sets": [
  {
   "set": "match.market_line.percent",
   "entity": "/football/matches/new-york-city-fc-vs-cf-montreal-2026-10-31/|1x2|1",
   "value": 66,
   "where": null,
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
  },
  {
   "set": "match.market_line.percent",
   "entity": "/football/matches/new-york-city-fc-vs-cf-montreal-2026-10-31/|1x2|X",
   "value": 20,
   "where": null,
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
  },
  {
   "set": "match.market_line.percent",
   "entity": "/football/matches/new-york-city-fc-vs-cf-montreal-2026-10-31/|1x2|2",
   "value": 14,
   "where": null,
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
  },
  {
   "set": "match.recorded_price.percent",
   "entity": "/football/matches/new-york-city-fc-vs-cf-montreal-2026-10-31/|Both teams to score|yes",
   "value": 58,
   "where": null,
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
  },
  {
   "set": "match.before_kickoff.market",
   "entity": "/football/matches/new-york-city-fc-vs-cf-montreal-2026-10-31/|Both teams to score",
   "value": 1,
   "where": null,
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
  },
  {
   "set": "match.before_kickoff.leader_share_percent",
   "entity": "/football/matches/new-york-city-fc-vs-cf-montreal-2026-10-31/|Both teams to score",
   "value": 100,
   "where": null,
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
  },
  {
   "set": "match.before_kickoff.selection",
   "entity": "/football/matches/new-york-city-fc-vs-cf-montreal-2026-10-31/|Both teams to score|yes",
   "value": 1,
   "where": null,
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
  },
  {
   "set": "match.other_forecasters",
   "entity": "/football/matches/new-york-city-fc-vs-cf-montreal-2026-10-31/",
   "value": 1,
   "where": "new-forecasters",
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
  }
 ],
 "data_changes": {
  "records_corrected": 0,
  "last_correction_at": null,
  "corrections_url": "/corrections/"
 },
 "entity_id": "event:s-7d6347dfa860",
 "source_revision": 68
}