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 "heading": "Warren Ashurst: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "Warren Ashurst: 20 statements recorded by Forecast Record. Every statement with its source and the rule applied to it.",
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  "body": "Forecast Record has recorded 20 statements by Warren Ashurst, including 2 predictions. Of the 2 predictions we hold for Warren Ashurst, 1 was archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 1 first found after the match. The statements are listed below; as of 7 November 2026.",
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    ],
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
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   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "observation_id": "n-3cde36f8135c8b97a240a40d",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-3cde36f8135c8b97a240a40d",
   "quote_text": "Icelandic defender Victor Palsson is doubtful due to a hamstring problem.",
   "fragment_from": 1806,
   "fragment_to": 1879,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240830123803id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/amp/plymouth-stoke-predictions-championship-2024083008551779989/",
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   },
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   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
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    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:04:58.696Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-cadc27e792f16ae3c1221cc4",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-cadc27e792f16ae3c1221cc4",
   "quote_text": "Teenage forward Frederick Issaka and midfielder Adam Forshaw are missing through suspension",
   "fragment_from": 1667,
   "fragment_to": 1758,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240830123803id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/amp/plymouth-stoke-predictions-championship-2024083008551779989/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Warren Ashurst",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "519200a8b24cc655a7defbae07a5674f0f268e355401f7c26bf28a19b03c15cb",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:04:58.696Z",
   "executed_at": null,
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   },
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-30T08:55:17.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:04:58.696Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-dcc2156592a9bc1c6f0d9ab3",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-dcc2156592a9bc1c6f0d9ab3",
   "quote_text": "Recent loan signing Michael Obafemi is expected to make his home debut for the Pilgrims",
   "fragment_from": 1511,
   "fragment_to": 1598,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240830123803id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/amp/plymouth-stoke-predictions-championship-2024083008551779989/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Warren Ashurst",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
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    "bundle_id": "519200a8b24cc655a7defbae07a5674f0f268e355401f7c26bf28a19b03c15cb",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:04:58.696Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   },
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-30T08:55:17.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:04:58.696Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-ccbe582be8ee9ba16d257372",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-ccbe582be8ee9ba16d257372",
   "quote_text": "Recommended bet: Million Manhoef to score",
   "fragment_from": 972,
   "fragment_to": 1013,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240830123803id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/amp/plymouth-stoke-predictions-championship-2024083008551779989/",
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    "speaker": "Warren Ashurst",
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   },
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   "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:04:58.696Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   "provenance": "restored_archive",
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    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-0786bb22a9474b99dc1bdc32",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-0786bb22a9474b99dc1bdc32",
   "quote_text": "Steven Schumacher will hope to see Stoke build on a 5-0 midweek League Cup victory at Middlesbrough.",
   "fragment_from": 719,
   "fragment_to": 819,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240830123803id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/amp/plymouth-stoke-predictions-championship-2024083008551779989/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Warren Ashurst",
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    "bundle_id": "519200a8b24cc655a7defbae07a5674f0f268e355401f7c26bf28a19b03c15cb",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:04:58.696Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   "odds_set": {
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-30T08:55:17.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:04:58.696Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-8bec0676b199779519f5a260",
   "url": "/authors/warren-ashurst/#pick-n-8bec0676b199779519f5a260",
   "quote_text": "Back Million Manhoef to score at anytime @ 5/2 with LiveScore Bet.",
   "fragment_from": 3577,
   "fragment_to": 3643,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240830123803id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/amp/plymouth-stoke-predictions-championship-2024083008551779989/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Warren Ashurst",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
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    "bundle_id": "519200a8b24cc655a7defbae07a5674f0f268e355401f7c26bf28a19b03c15cb",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2024-08-30T08:55:17.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:04:58.696Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:05.845Z",
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
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   "event": {
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    "display_name": "Plymouth Argyle v Stoke City",
    "competition_name": "EFL Championship",
    "starts_at": "2024-08-31T14:00:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "0-1"
   },
   "market_label": "Player to score",
   "outcome_label": "Million Manhoef to score",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "3.5",
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "win",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": 25000,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": "ours",
   "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-08-30T12:38:03.000Z",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2024-08-30T08:55:17.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-30T08:55:17.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:04:58.696Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-08-30T12:38:03.000Z",
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": "Added to our record on 9 Oct 2026",
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "Player to score",
    "choice": "Million Manhoef to score",
    "author_odds": "3.5",
    "market_key": "player_to_score",
    "choice_key": "yes",
    "period": "match",
    "line": null,
    "subject": "player_goals",
    "in_words": "Player to score: Million Manhoef to score at 3.5"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "win",
    "scoreline": "0-1",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "in_words": "Won: the final score was Plymouth Argyle 0-1 Stoke City."
   },
   "settlements": [
    {
     "operation_id": "00ac2c3ce90e13ac7c22447c4beb0fa26c96d4f393204b5828d5898ce09b8149",
     "series_key": "retro_author_price",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Player to score",
     "choice": "Million Manhoef to score",
     "decimal_odds": "3.5",
     "odds_role": "author_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "win",
     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 25000,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:05.845Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Warren Ashurst",
    "publisher": "livescore.com",
    "forecaster": "Warren Ashurst",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.livescore.com/en/news/amp/plymouth-stoke-predictions-championship-2024083008551779989/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
    "verdict_line": null
   },
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "standing": null,
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 1,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 1,
  "found_post_match": 0,
  "of_them_source_reported": 0,
  "live_count": 0,
  "date_count": 1,
  "span_from": "2024-08-31",
  "span_to": "2024-08-31",
  "line_text": "restored history: 1, of which pre-match archive 1",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Championship matches on 31 August 2024 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 1. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 1. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 0. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 1,
   "share": "1.0"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 1,
    "roi": "250.0000",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "n": 0,
    "roi": null,
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": "no restored pick with this price"
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Championship"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 0 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 1 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged."
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": null,
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "livescore.com",
   "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241009042311id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/bayer-leverkusen-vs-ac-milan-predictions-leverkusen-can-see-off-rossoneri-2024093013513131390/"
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  "reason": "1 prediction was read after the match, from archived pages",
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  ],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record has recorded 20 statements by Warren Ashurst, including 2 predictions. Of the 2 predictions we hold for Warren Ashurst, 1 was archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 1 first found after the match. The statements are listed below; as of 7 November 2026.",
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   {
    "label": "Statements",
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  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record has recorded 20 statements by Warren Ashurst, including 2 predictions. Of the 2 predictions we hold for Warren Ashurst, 1 was archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 1 first found after the match. The statements are listed below; as of 7 November 2026.",
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    },
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