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 "heading": "Tom McGarry: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "11 settled picks by Tom McGarry archived before kick-off across 9 matches, 31 Aug 2024 – 19 Apr 2026: +29.3% reconstructed at archived prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record restored 11 settled archived picks by Tom McGarry from copies archived before kick-off, across 9 matches between 31 August 2024 and 19 April 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned +29.3% on the total staked. Of the 43 predictions we hold for Tom McGarry, 22 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 21 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
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  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
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   "observation_id": "n-670abaf925a9bf15152bb236",
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  {
   "observation_id": "n-75c511c562f8c52e96d82223",
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   "quote_text": "Sign up with Betfair to bet on Brann vs Rangers in the Europa League.",
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   "quote_text": "Under 1.5 goals in Burton vs Shrewsbury\n1pt 5-2 bet365, Betfair",
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     "status": "confirmed",
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   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
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    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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   "quote_text": "they offer plenty of value to record another victory on Saturday.",
   "fragment_from": 2522,
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    "flags": [
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "quote_text": "the Black Cats can add another victory away at struggling QPR.",
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    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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  {
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-5d218a953a9d1db0939c35c8",
   "quote_text": "Black Cats expected to push on",
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    "flags": [
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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    "closing": "2.0300",
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
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    "material_url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/saturdays-3pm-championship-predictions-and-football-betting-tips-aFjsU5p5Vx3O/",
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    "closing": "2.0000",
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   "author_claim": {
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   },
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   ],
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   "quote_text": "West Ham or draw double chance",
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   },
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    "closing": "1.5000",
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   },
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   "author_claim": {
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    "market_key": "double_chance",
    "choice_key": "X2",
    "period": "match",
    "line": null,
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "Double chance: draw or West Ham United"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "awaiting a final score for this restored pick",
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    "in_words": "Pending: awaiting a final score for this restored pick."
   },
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    "material_url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/wolves-vs-west-ham-predictions-team-news-betting-tips-odds-and-bet-builder-a0uHj2g7btSh/",
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 ],
 "excluded_from_feed": {
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  "ruleset_version": "3"
 },
 "standing": null,
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 14,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 11,
  "found_post_match": 3,
  "of_them_source_reported": 0,
  "live_count": 0,
  "date_count": 8,
  "span_from": "2024-11-02",
  "span_to": "2026-04-19",
  "line_text": "restored history: 14, of which pre-match archive 11",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League, Championship, Europa League and League One matches between 2 November 2024 and 19 April 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 14. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 11. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 3. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 14,
   "share": "0.3571"
  },
  "series_list": [
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   },
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   },
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    "n": 12,
    "roi": "-29.5417",
    "ci_low": "-83.0833",
    "ci_high": "31.6000",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_derived_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored score forecast: result implied by the score, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 1,
    "roi": "100.0000",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Premier League",
   "Championship",
   "Europa League",
   "League One"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 1 settled restored pick, and the two agree; 13 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged.",
  "score_accuracy": {
   "n": 1,
   "share": "0.0"
  }
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": null,
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "racingpost.com",
   "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20251022231039id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/europa-league/brann-vs-rangers-predictions-team-news-betting-tips-odds-and-bet-builder-aFoUK0a1BwVc/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-09-28",
  "observed_to": "2026-10-18",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
  "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
  "restored": true,
  "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
  "headline_part": "archived",
  "settled_picks": 11,
  "matches": 9,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": 32250,
  "staked_hundredths": 110000,
  "return_percent": "29.32",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2024-08-31",
  "period_to": "2026-04-19",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 11 settled archived picks by Tom McGarry from copies archived before kick-off, across 9 matches between 31 August 2024 and 19 April 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned +29.3% on the total staked. Of the 43 predictions we hold for Tom McGarry, 22 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 21 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled archived picks",
    "value": "11",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "9",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "+322.50 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "value": "+29.3%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": null
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "This page combines Tom McGarry across 2 platforms. The record above counts each prediction once, even when the same pick (match, market and selection) appeared on more than one platform; each platform keeps its own total under “Where Tom McGarry publishes”.",
   "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [
   {
    "date": "2024-08-31",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 68000,
    "n": 1
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-09-28",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 58000,
    "n": 2
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-11-09",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 38000,
    "n": 4
   },
   {
    "date": "2024-11-23",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 55500,
    "n": 5
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-10-05",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 61200,
    "n": 6
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-10-23",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 62250,
    "n": 8
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-11-06",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 52250,
    "n": 9
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-04-19",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 32250,
    "n": 11
   }
  ],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": null,
   "archived": {
    "part": "archived",
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
    "settled_picks": 11,
    "matches": 9,
    "match_dates": 8,
    "period_from": "2024-08-31",
    "period_to": "2026-04-19",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": 32250,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-04-19",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 32250,
     "after_picks": 11
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2024-08-31",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 68000,
     "after_picks": 1
    },
    "line_drawn": true,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2024-08-31",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 68000,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-09-28",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 58000,
      "n": 2,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-11-09",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 38000,
      "n": 4,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-11-23",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 55500,
      "n": 5,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-05",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 61200,
      "n": 6,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-23",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 62250,
      "n": 8,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-11-06",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 52250,
      "n": 9,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-04-19",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 32250,
      "n": 11,
      "picks": 2
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record restored 11 settled archived picks by Tom McGarry from copies archived before kick-off, across 9 matches between 31 August 2024 and 19 April 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned +29.3% on the total staked. Of the 43 predictions we hold for Tom McGarry, 22 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 21 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/tom-mcgarry/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "retro-1.1"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 43,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 0,
   "proven_predictions": 22,
   "proven_checked": 13,
   "proven_measured": 11,
   "proven_dates": 8,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 22,
     "checked": 13,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
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      "void": 0,
      "matches": 9,
      "net_points_hundredths": 32250,
      "staked_hundredths": 110000,
      "return_percent": "29.32",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2024-08-31",
      "period_to": "2026-04-19",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 7,
       "return_main_percent": "80.79",
       "return_other_percent": "79.29",
       "settled_excluding_void": 7,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 56550,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 55500,
       "period_from": "2024-08-31",
       "period_to": "2026-04-19"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
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      "priced": 11
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 11,
      "won": 4,
      "won_percent": "36.4",
      "implied_percent": "38.3",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 2,
        "picks": 5,
        "implied_percent": "43.1"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 3,
        "implied_percent": "39.6"
       },
       {
        "market": "Correct score",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "12.6"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "61.7"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 21,
     "checked": 9,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
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      "void": 0,
      "matches": 9,
      "net_points_hundredths": -6600,
      "staked_hundredths": 90000,
      "return_percent": "-7.33",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2024-11-02",
      "period_to": "2026-01-03",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 8,
       "return_main_percent": "4.25",
       "return_other_percent": "15.62",
       "settled_excluding_void": 8,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 3400,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 12500,
       "period_from": "2024-11-02",
       "period_to": "2025-04-18"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price, aggregator",
       "series_code": "retro_market_closing",
       "picks": 2,
       "return_main_percent": "27.50",
       "return_other_percent": "30.00",
       "settled_excluding_void": 2,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 5500,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 6000,
       "period_from": "2025-04-05",
       "period_to": "2026-01-03"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
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      "exact_hits": 0,
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      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
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      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
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      "favourite_hits": 0,
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      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
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      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
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      "priced": 9
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 9,
      "won": 4,
      "won_percent": "44.4",
      "implied_percent": "48.1",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 3,
        "implied_percent": "42.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and both teams to score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "41.9"
       },
       {
        "market": "Asian handicap",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "68.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "60.1"
       },
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "49.3"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "43.5"
       }
      ]
     }
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-055e5bd3ddb60d65eac0a88a",
   "n-52eed0eea3f8c826bb05c938",
   "n-65f6271c7ec7c3e38a2d896f",
   "n-8d14b125931f3fb8ec08f94c",
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  ],
  "interval_low": null,
  "interval_high": null,
  "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 31 August 2024 – 19 April 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1",
  "record_from": "2024-08-31",
  "record_to": "2026-04-19"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-a92b5ede6893cbccc4cbd8a2",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Ipswich Town v Middlesbrough",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-04-19T11:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "EFL Championship",
   "lead_hours": -3941.2,
   "market_code": "total",
   "author_said": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: under 2.5",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "2-2",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": "1.9350",
   "published_at": "2026-04-18T14:14:13.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T16:12:38.059Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": true,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-52eed0eea3f8c826bb05c938",
   "url": "/authors/tom-mcgarry/picks/2/#pick-n-52eed0eea3f8c826bb05c938",
   "match": "Ipswich Town v Middlesbrough",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-04-19T11:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "EFL Championship",
   "lead_hours": -3941.2,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: Ipswich Town at 2.25",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "2-2",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "2.25",
   "settled_price": "2.2500",
   "published_at": "2026-04-18T14:14:13.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T16:12:38.059Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": true,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-52eed0eea3f8c826bb05c938",
    "quote_text": "Ipswich to win\n2pts 5-4 general",
    "fragment_from": 2157,
    "fragment_to": 2188,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260418225230id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/ipswich-vs-middlesbrough-predictions-team-news-betting-tips-odds-and-bet-builder-a4hqS1n9ln1V/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Tom McGarry",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "537a5436610a4417e8f104dd108b502603d4f67cb87ff24e4d8b7d286f6e3f1a",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": "2026-04-18T14:14:13.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-30T16:12:38.059Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:15.376Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
     "event_id": null,
     "display_name": "Ipswich Town v Middlesbrough",
     "competition_name": "EFL Championship",
     "starts_at": "2026-04-19T11:00:00.000Z",
     "url": null,
     "scoreline": "2-2"
    },
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "outcome_label": "Ipswich Town",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": "2.25",
     "our_snapshot": null,
     "our_snapshot_at": null,
     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": "2.2500",
     "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "loss",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "restored_archive",
    "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
    "archive_snapshot_at": "2026-04-18T22:52:30.000Z",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": "2026-04-18T14:14:13.000Z",
     "fragment_basis": "page",
     "source_page_at": "2026-04-18T14:14:13.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-09-30T16:12:38.059Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": "2026-04-18T22:52:30.000Z",
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
    "origin_detail": null,
    "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
    "added_on": "Added to our record on 30 Sep 2026",
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Ipswich Town",
     "author_odds": "2.25",
     "market_key": "1x2",
     "choice_key": "1",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "1X2, match result: Ipswich Town at 2.25"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "loss",
     "scoreline": "2-2",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Ipswich Town 2-2 Middlesbrough."
    },
    "settlements": [
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      "series_key": "retro_author_price",
      "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
      "derived": false,
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T13:05:10.315Z",
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   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
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   "favourite": null,
   "platform": "LiveScore",
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  },
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   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Notts County win to nil vs Newport\n1pt 13-8 Coral, Ladbrokes",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-01T01:11:01.002Z",
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   "quote": "Marcelino Nunez to be booked",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T16:12:38.059Z",
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   "quote": "Tommy Conway 2+ shots",
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   "outcome": "Excluded",
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   "reason_code": "not_supported",
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  },
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   "published_at": "2026-04-10T15:00:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T16:08:32.838Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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  },
  {
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   "reason_code": "after_match",
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   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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  },
  {
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   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Jarrod Bowen to score anytime",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-01-02T16:00:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:22:57.814Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-e8b20da42f58eaa8408197f1",
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   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
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   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Over 2.5 goals & both teams to score\n2pts Evs Hills",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-11-05T17:00:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-01T00:47:51.822Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
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   "attribution": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-c2e2f09f53be32ef4ac2743d",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Djeidi Gassama 3+ shots",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-10-22T15:00:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-02T00:44:04.971Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-f446503f5714d4ab8f4a01b1",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Bard Finne anytime goalscorer",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-10-22T15:00:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-01T00:33:43.768Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-4300238679bed56c9d9fb063",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
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   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Ipswich vs Norwich Bet Builder\n\nIpswich",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "author_price": null,
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   "published_at": "2025-10-04T11:33:56.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T16:12:52.636Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
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   "in_headline": false,
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   "favourite": null,
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  }
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 "lead_time": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "threshold_hours": 2.0,
  "picks": 30,
  "before_kickoff": 0,
  "after_kickoff": 30,
  "at_least_2h": 0,
  "share_2h_plus": 0.0,
  "median_hours": null,
  "min_hours": null,
  "max_hours": null,
  "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off."
 },
 "baseline": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "rule": "recorded-line-1.0",
  "state": "none",
  "picks": 0,
  "settled_picks_all": 0,
  "excluded": {
   "market_without_favourite": 0,
   "no_recorded_line": 0,
   "favourite_not_settled": 0
  },
  "staked_hundredths": 0,
  "author_net_hundredths": 0,
  "favourite_net_hundredths": 0,
  "difference_hundredths": 0,
  "author_return_percent": null,
  "favourite_return_percent": null,
  "author_hit_rate": null,
  "favourite_hit_rate": null,
  "picked_favourite_share": null,
  "by_market": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out."
 },
 "pagination": {
  "per_page": 20,
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  "pages": 4,
  "page_urls": [
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   "/authors/tom-mcgarry/picks/3/",
   "/authors/tom-mcgarry/picks/4/"
  ],
  "groups": {
   "settled": 22,
   "pending": 0,
   "excluded": 21
  },
  "continuation": "by_time",
  "page": 1,
  "first": 1,
  "last": 20,
  "author_url": "/authors/tom-mcgarry/",
  "current": false
 },
 "title_tag": "Tom McGarry Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources",
 "calculator": null,
 "person": {
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  "type_code": "individual",
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   "source_list": []
  },
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   {
    "entity_ref": "e-c63c34585c68ce9bc820d814",
    "medium": "Racing Post",
    "channel": "section pages",
    "domain": "racingpost.com",
    "source_info": "racing-post",
    "byline": "Tom McGarry",
    "url": "/sources/racing-post/",
    "summary": {
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     "predictions": 31,
     "settled_picks": 9,
     "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
     "return_percent": -28.61,
     "headline_part": "archived",
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    }
   },
   {
    "entity_ref": "e-bc73f34d2330d870ad69be63",
    "medium": "LiveScore",
    "channel": "section pages",
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    "byline": "Tom McGarry",
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    "summary": {
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     "predictions": 12,
     "settled_picks": 2,
     "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
     "return_percent": 290.0,
     "headline_part": "archived",
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   }
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 },
 "data_revision": {
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  "updated": "2026-10-22",
  "current_release": "2026-11-07.2",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
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  "price_rule": "reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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  "sample": {
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   "period_from": "2024-08-31",
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  "changes_url": "#changes",
  "corrections_url": "/corrections/"
 },
 "number_changes": [
  {
   "id": "zc-4a3c6b0ccd7b58412544",
   "at": "2026-10-22T09:54:30.278Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-22.3",
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   "url": "/authors/tom-mcgarry/",
   "category": "data_corrected",
   "category_words": "Data corrected",
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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    "composition_hash": "3b5a635c13cdcfaaf40562e08bffa9a155c8efa26c2ad38ce86d68d57ff8b144",
    "text": "+18.54% on 12 settled picks across 9 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-22.3",
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    "composition_hash": "3b5a635c13cdcfaaf40562e08bffa9a155c8efa26c2ad38ce86d68d57ff8b144",
    "text": "+29.32% on 11 settled picks across 9 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "The same picks give a different total: the calculation was corrected.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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   "id": "zc-6a2c125da07d69ade43c",
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   "data_version": "2026-10-22.2",
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   "url": "/authors/tom-mcgarry/",
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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    "composition_hash": "3b5a635c13cdcfaaf40562e08bffa9a155c8efa26c2ad38ce86d68d57ff8b144",
    "text": "+29.32% on 11 settled picks across 9 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-22.2",
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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    "composition_hash": "3b5a635c13cdcfaaf40562e08bffa9a155c8efa26c2ad38ce86d68d57ff8b144",
    "text": "+18.54% on 12 settled picks across 9 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "The same picks give a different total: the calculation was corrected.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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   "correction_id": "i-829aeaf2519a996b667f"
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  {
   "id": "zc-13de7c05f4d8636f7b7d",
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   "url": "/authors/tom-mcgarry/",
   "category": "data_corrected",
   "category_words": "Data corrected",
   "before": {
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    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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    "composition_hash": "1b2567fefda3840ec1ece9c7133451e39790ed4021fd5f58bb38af0ef05588b6",
    "text": "+18.54% on 12 settled picks across 9 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-19.6",
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "3b5a635c13cdcfaaf40562e08bffa9a155c8efa26c2ad38ce86d68d57ff8b144",
    "text": "+29.32% on 11 settled picks across 9 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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   },
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  {
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   "at": "2026-10-16T17:26:36.835Z",
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   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-16.4",
   "url": "/authors/tom-mcgarry/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
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    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "178da88ed15556707e7e7a39fae6209651d38402ec0edeaf38ddeda36c8ad378",
    "text": "−41.59% on 11 settled picks across 8 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "18.54",
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    "composition_hash": "1b2567fefda3840ec1ece9c7133451e39790ed4021fd5f58bb38af0ef05588b6",
    "text": "+18.54% on 12 settled picks across 9 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
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   "at": "2026-10-15T18:43:19.205Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-15.5",
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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    "composition_hash": "e6f87ff693f29a3034d0f80283299d58c6016959ce5cc9e17b4f74ab7b879d57",
    "text": "−35.75% on 10 settled picks across 7 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "-41.59",
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    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "178da88ed15556707e7e7a39fae6209651d38402ec0edeaf38ddeda36c8ad378",
    "text": "−41.59% on 11 settled picks across 8 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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  {
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   "at": "2026-10-09T12:49:36.723Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-09.2",
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   "url": "/authors/tom-mcgarry/",
   "category": "method_changed",
   "category_words": "Method changed",
   "before": {
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    "return_percent": "-39.03",
    "settled_picks": 16,
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    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "87e1d94f7ac93ba35c0a8450a6cc134a21d8fd6cc0ebfe5636ebf6bb1443c6df",
    "text": "−39.03% on 16 settled picks across 10 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-09.2",
    "return_percent": "-35.75",
    "settled_picks": 10,
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "e6f87ff693f29a3034d0f80283299d58c6016959ce5cc9e17b4f74ab7b879d57",
    "text": "−35.75% on 10 settled picks across 7 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, a historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first found after the match no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (16 settled picks). Now: historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (10 settled picks).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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  {
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   "at": "2026-10-09T11:08:54.367Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-09.1",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-09-30.1",
   "url": "/authors/tom-mcgarry/",
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    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored",
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    "composition_hash": "c427f6fc2bca5fcb0dfb5e65a168b55b9c95a21d8e8e8fbab9a41d95f4946245",
    "text": "−200.00 points on 2 settled picks across 1 match · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored",
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    "composition_hash": "87e1d94f7ac93ba35c0a8450a6cc134a21d8fd6cc0ebfe5636ebf6bb1443c6df",
    "text": "−39.03% on 16 settled picks across 10 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Added 14 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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  "refreshed_at": "2026-10-17",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://forecastrecord.com/authors/tom-mcgarry/\">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 43 predictions · last change 17 October 2026</a>"
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 "colleagues": [
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 "author_type": "Pundit",
 "data_changes": {
  "added_later": "5 records added on 30 Sep 2026 found after the match; 9 records added on 1 Oct 2026 from archived copies; 6 records added on 9 Oct 2026 found after the match; 16 more records added on other dates. The current numbers include them; numbers published earlier, including the record before each match, do not change.",
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}